Transcription
Hello, good morning everyone. I hope you are doing well. Today, market review. We are going to prepare our trading week. We will look at the different scenarios I am monitoring. Do I have any triggers? We will also look at Ether and analyze all the altcoins here at the weekly closing level and long-term charts. Because I was asked a question, someone told me "Yeah, Nico, you criticize altcoins a lot, saying they have ugly charts." That's a fact. Okay, we all agree on that. But then tell me about altcoins that stand out a bit more and have more interesting charts. So we will review the large-cap altcoins here and see which ones have more interesting charts than others that are really ugly, as we saw for example, yesterday. Before I start, I remind you that this is the final stretch until midnight tonight to take advantage of the €400 offered on the "Become a Trader" mentorship, and I just want to ask you a simple question. How, where do you want to be in 6 months, 1 year? Do you want to continue watching videos on YouTube from 30 different people and not progress, or do you want to build a method, a process, become autonomous and profitable? That's the goal of this mentorship. In 6 months, a year, you will have the ability to make your own decisions, to simply have a strategy adapted to your profile. All of this, we cover it here in the "Become a Trader" program with over 30 hours of videos where you will build your strategy, use the best indicators, have appropriate money management, solid psychology, simply discipline, and not overtrade, simply be structured, have a process, a model that suits you, and on top of that, we will refine all of this in the "Become a Trader" mentorship, where the goal is simply for me to correct you, to unlock blockages you might have in trading, to address topics live, I will be able to answer your questions, live, simply. So there you go, this is the evolution here of "Become a Trader," it's becoming a mentorship, it will be, okay, with one live session per week, well, each week, and I invite you, in any case, to join it for all those who want, of course, to become profitable, autonomous, and disciplined in trading. You have the current offer, it's the last time you can join at such a low price. For that, I invite you to click on the first link in the description. And if you are still hesitating, don't hesitate to take a look at the testimonials, to see the numerous traders who share their opinions, simply. And if you want to discuss with them, you can simply join the Discord. You have here an opportunity to see which trader followed the "Become a Trader" mentorship on Discord, and you will be able to ask them questions if, simply, you have doubts. In any case, I invite you to click on the first link in the description to take advantage of the offer.
So, I'll start here with Bitcoin. So, we'll look at our weekly closing. A weekly closing that is a bit similar to the others we've had. It's simply a weekly closing within this range. So we are still in a phase of uncertainty, except that we had a liquidity grab here, we made a higher high at this level, except that we don't have a close. So for now, we are still in a range, you see, we zoom out a bit, well, we zoom in a bit, we switch to daily, and what do we observe? We are still in a sideways phase, we have to be patient. I know it's long, I know it's boring, I know yes, there is low volatility. We see it clearly here, even if it has come back a bit, it remains slight, we are not in this kind of phase with very high volatility, so we have to be patient. The market is boring, the market is slow, but that's how it is. The market is always right. That's something, it's a pretty simple lesson in trading that you have to understand, is that the market is always right. The market is never wrong. Okay? And the market cannot do what you want it to do. Otherwise, of course, it would be too good. So it's up to us to adapt to the market. And here, we are in a phase, personally, I am waiting. I am waiting to have a real signal. And I would like to have a real recovery, whether it's upwards or downwards, to reopen trend continuation strategies as we had done at this level. For now, in any case, I am in a waiting phase.
Next week, perhaps we will have a bit more volatility. We have some economic announcements, it will be especially here on January 13th with the CPI and inflation in the United States. So that will allow us to see if there is a decrease in inflation or not. That will have an impact on the Fed's decisions, on interest rates for this year 2026, and of course, it can create volatility. That's what we're a bit lacking, it's simply, well, volatility. Well, it's the weekend, Saturday, Sunday, so it's not surprising that not much is happening, but there you go, we have a market that is rather calm. There was still a good upward phase here over a period of about 4 or 5 days. Then it calmed down rather. So again, set alerts, those who are on the long term, it's useless to spend your life in front of the screens. Alerts should simply be set here. And well, otherwise, we wait. And for those who trade more actively within this range, I would also wait to have a real direction. For now, we see it clearly. For me, the worst scenario for those who trade trends is flat moving averages. A flat 1-hour, a flat 15-minute, a flat 4-hour. Here, we are really in the worst context for trading. Why? Because we don't have momentum. Now, we have a small pump, you know, the famous Sunday afternoon pump. Yes, it's a bit systematic. On Sunday, we have a movement as if we were in pre-opening of the US market, and Saturday, Sunday, it's calm. We see the difference clearly between the volatility on Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, and here, we enter Saturday. Look at the totally weak amplitude. And often in the afternoon, we have a Sunday, it goes, not necessarily upwards, sometimes it does that downwards, but we have a bit more volatility. Well, in any case, it will be very important to monitor the US market opening tomorrow. It's the start of the week. It might give us a guideline for our week. We will also pay attention to the pivot points because we will see new weekly pivot points appearing. You know I'm a fan of pivot points. It allows me to frame things well and have good reference points. We see that this week, we consolidated perfectly and set a bottom on the main weekly pivot point. Okay? So now we will see the new weekly pivot points again, and we will have to monitor where they are. We'll talk about it tomorrow, but don't hesitate, for those who have the indicator or those who want to add it. You just have to do "multime prime Vegas," add the tunnel and pivot. You have a two-in-one indicator that simply allows you to have this kind of chart that I'm showing you here and to have the same tools, the same indicators as me. There's nothing to configure, it's displayed just as I have it on the screen. And that way, from tomorrow, from the weekly close here, because a pivot point takes data from the previous period. So if we are weekly, the previous week, monthly the previous month, etc. And here, we will have new weekly pivot points, which will simply allow us to frame our charts and know the levels that we simply need to monitor. So Bitcoin, same, I'll go through it quite quickly because there aren't 40,000 scenarios. My scenarios, I can redo them for you. They remain globally the same. From a medium-term perspective, if we establish ourselves above $95,000, then there are two realistic levels to aim for. These are these two levels, $99,000 and $106,000 to $107,000. Now, can I know if we will do this to bounce here, to aim for there, or if we will re-enter, or if we will not stop and go straight up? I don't know. What is certain is that these are two levels of interest. Why? Because at this level, from a price action perspective, there is an interesting level as well here, the biggest is this one. The biggest level is this one. We also have $96,000. It's a level that few people talk about because they don't pay special attention to it, but it's a level I will monitor because I have a weekly pivot point here, I have the main pivot point, and it's always an important level because it can remind me, as I've already told you, of this period in 2022. We were in a similar context to what we are experiencing at this level. So it's also a level I will monitor around here, $96,000. So that's the first scenario. As I said, we break and we aim for these two levels. What is certain is that if we break, we will have momentum, and then we will trade trend continuation. So we'll see how to do it on YouTube. I'll show you the trades I took. After, of course, I go into much more detail in the mentorship, especially here in module 11 in this setup where I clearly tell you how to trade trends well with a setup that I clearly share with you. But that's this kind of period. If I have a pump already at this level, there is amplitude, and there is enough amplitude, +9%, +8% to trade in the direction of the trend on intraday. So for that, however, I need acceptance and a good pump above $95,000. If we are rejected and we break downwards, well, I will have the same thing here, but rather bearish, meaning I will look for shorts at this level to aim for $75,000 between $70,000 and $75,000. That will clearly be a good zone. So that's really from a short-term trading perspective. For long-term investment, I had already told you, I repositioned myself at $86,000. I am now waiting for us to go lower. If we don't go lower, well, too bad, I can't force it. It's the market, as I say, that is always right, but I always keep cash in case we go lower. I still have this cash-crypto balance of 55/45, and that suits me perfectly. And within the 55, I have mainly Bitcoin, Ether, hyper liquid Solana. So on the BTC side, if we look here, I'll reconnect to look at the order flow. Tac, what we have, it remains quite calm. We have funding that is quite full, almost neutral. Okay. Open interest, we dropped quite a bit on October 10th, and since then we haven't made new highs. We had a good increase in open interest over time. Hop, at this level, the FTX crash made people understand, well, it dropped, and since then many people have calmed down clearly on futures, but we saw that we had a good increase at this level. Then on October 10th, it dried up quite a few people, and since then it's been settling down. So no big interest there. In terms of liquidations, it's been a long time since we've had a big liquidation spike. We see it here, there are a lot of long liquidations. We were in a bearish phase, so it's normal, we liquidated a lot of people. And then since around mid-December, we see it calming down. We also have a spike in short liquidations, but otherwise it's calming down. We don't have major liquidations. Okay, we do have a slight increase in open interest between this moment when it generally calmed down. In fact, it was the lowest point. And at this level, we have an increase in open interest, opening of positions. Whether it's shorts or longs, it's the sum of short and long position openings. You open a short, open interest increases. You open a long, it also increases. However, you close a position, you get liquidated, you take a stop loss, in short, you close your short or your long, we have a decrease in open interest. So we do see that since this phase on December 11th, we have a slight increase in open interest, about +12%, but that means we are creating liquidity, and since we haven't liquidated many people for a while, well, we could clearly be in a phase where if it goes in one direction, there could be a short squeeze or a long squeeze. It's been a long time since we've liquidated people. So all of this, of course, will need to be monitored this week.
Regarding Ether, it's pretty much the same. We have pulled back to our neckline, our mid-range. For now, it's a level we are not re-entering, and we absolutely must not re-enter. We are still, as I said, in this range. The objective is to break $3400 to then aim for $3008 and $4000. So Ether is in pretty much the same configuration as Bitcoin, meaning there isn't a lot of volatility. If I put the moving averages here, hop, we are also in a phase where, you see, the 15-minute is flat, the 1-hour is flat, the 4-hour is flat. Yes, we came back to pull back on the 1st. That was a pretty good zone, but more for a swing trader than someone who does intraday. I personally prefer to do intraday trading in an upward context. And we are here in a context where, personally, I prefer to do intraday trading than swing trading. Yes, I'm much more comfortable like that. So I would like to make a new high here to resume upward momentum and find shorts in the direction of the trend. Otherwise, I clearly prefer to wait on my end. After, Ether is also a range. If we start to accelerate above $3400, objective $3008 or $4000. By the way, we can stop here like here. I have no idea. We can very well do this or do that. In any case, we will have to monitor all of this in detail. And yes, after that, it's a range, so it's range trading. We came back to a major support level. We have a resistance level here. So there you go, it's a sideways phase. The resolution will be important to monitor. And we also have an intermediate level, $3070. We absolutely must not go back below it, otherwise we would re-enter this W structure. And when we re-enter a structure, generally the objective is to reach the opposite extreme. So here, at least, it's these lows. So, there you go, on Ether, same, not much to say from a weekly closing perspective, it's a closing within this sideways phase.
So, I will finish here with the altcoins. We'll go through them all. Uh, so what to look at is really especially at the closing level. Why? Because I was told "Yeah, Nico, you attack altcoins quite a bit. There are a lot of altcoins that have ugly charts." For example, that's the case for ICP, that's the case for, what can we take? XLM, it's not great, ETC, you see, it's ugly. Atom, it's ugly. Elgo, it's ugly. And so I was told, okay, what are really the altcoins where you say to yourself, hey, this could be interesting? So, already, interesting is relative. Why? Because when I look like this, Total 3, well, for now, we don't have a recovery. Okay, we are in a range at this level, a sideways phase. We were rejected at the ATH level, we made a new ATH but we re-entered immediately. Total 3, I remind you, is the total market cap of altcoins excluding BTC and ETH. So for now, we don't have a recovery. And regarding Bitcoin Dominance, we are back below 60%. Personally, I never thought we would go that high on Bitcoin Dominance. For me, that's an excess. There's a high chance we won't go back above this level. Especially, we broke our channel, we broke the daily tunnel, and we see that this daily tunnel now acts as resistance. So for now, on altcoins, we can have altcoins that perform if we start to make a lower low here and break down because we will have a decrease in Bitcoin Dominance, and we would especially have altcoins that will simply gain dominance compared to BTC, and that would be interesting. However, for now, we don't really have any confirmation signs yet. For that, we would need to at least break 58% on Bitcoin Dominance, or even 57% here, to have confirmation of a lower low on this Bitcoin Dominance. Now, at the altcoin level, it's simple. For those who do short-term trading, the best is to monitor which altcoin stands out. Don't start by saying "Yes, this altcoin isn't great on weekly." No, that's okay. We're doing short-term. Which altcoin has an interesting chart? For example, here, hop, here I have a daily view of daily, weekly, monthly performance. We see that on monthly, the altcoin here in pink that stands out the most is Render. It outperforms the majority of altcoins from a monthly perspective. And as if by chance, what day is it? It's January 11th. Okay. And as if by chance, so it's almost mid-month. So it's outperforming the others well. This week, it continues to outperform the majority. Not all. There's Polkadot that's above it, but it outperforms the others, and again, on daily, it outperforms the others. For those who do short-term trading, always start from the principle that when we are in momentum, when we have a bullish chart, this chart has a higher chance of continuing to be bullish. That is to say, if you have an altcoin that is strong the next day, tell yourself that from a probability standpoint, this altcoin has a higher chance of being strong again. And that's how it is, that's the goal. It's like when we set moving averages, there's an upward trend, pullbacks are bought. So already, for those who do short-term trading, you can operate like that. You take a list, you look at the altcoins that stand out against Bitcoin, against the dollar, and you do trend continuation. That's the best advice I can give you for those who want to choose which crypto can be interesting. Now, for the long term, we can review, hop, just from a price action perspective. BNB, we are high but still in an upward dynamic. There is no reversal of dynamic on BNB. To really reverse our dynamic, either we start closing below this level. Yes, that would be bad. But yes, either we start closing below this level. Intermediate invalidation, re-entry of this level, or a bigger top pattern. Like this, we would have reversal signals. But BNB, the chart remains pretty good. XRP, the chart is also pretty good. Sideways phase. Okay. Close to this high. No reversal signal, but we are high. That's the drawback. Solana, we are globally at a support level here. We see it clearly on this major level. So for now, no invalidation signal, it's rather an interesting altcoin, but again, we are high. ADA, it's ugly. We are at a major support level, but we don't have a double structure. But I have the impression the charts are blurry. No, it's because I'm zooming out, it's me. Uh, yes, we are at a major support level, but we are missing a pattern. The location is good, but we are missing a reversal of our dynamic. Tron is ugly. We are in a bearish dynamic. Okay, the candles are blurry. Yes, on weekly, the candles. Okay, I've updated it. It's good. On Avax, we are at a support level since we haven't made a lower low, but again, we are missing a W structure. So there are many altcoins with the same configuration. Dodge is the same, the location is good. We are at a support level, but there is no W structure. TRX, we are still in an upward flow. We are validating a small W structure, and breaking the daily tunnel. So on that, it's pretty good. And the objective in this kind of case is to come back here to aim for the 0.78 Fibonacci. There is a good zone here at around 33 cents where TRX could go in the coming days. Chainlink, the zone is very, very good, but again, we would need to go back above the pot and above $15. Polkadot is ugly, there's nothing to do until we have a re-entry, a W structure, a bullish signal. For now, we are breaking a major level. This is ugly, this kind of chart. I clearly prefer to forget it. Dcoin, we are below the daily tunnel, we are coming back to an accumulation zone, but for me, it's too early to position ourselves. We would need a bigger structure here to form for a better bottom. ICP is not great. We are at a major support level, but it lacks structure, it lacks a bottom that could be forming. Yes, we are below the daily tunnel, below the moving averages, so I would wait for a bigger structure to form. Shib, the zone is very good, but again, we are in a bearish trend, so again, we need a structure. So there you go, this allows us to see which ones don't need a structure because they are already in an upward dynamic. Example: BNB. Then, it allows us to see those that are in a good location zone, but lack the structure, we've seen quite a few, and those I completely forget, for example, like Polkadot. Bitcoin Cash, Bitcoin Cash doesn't need a structure because we are in a bullish dynamic. Now, we are at resistance, that's something to consider, but we remain in a tightening dynamic. So Bitcoin Cash is interesting, even for trend continuation. Litecoin is not great. I prefer to be lower to enter a position. We are also not in the best location zone. XLM, we are in a good zone, but it lacks a reversal structure. ETC, hop, ETC, it's ugly. We are breaking out. This, I can clearly put it in red. So, we would need a re-entry of this level. We really want it to be bullish. Otherwise, it's a bit like Polkadot. Atom is the same, it's like Polkadot. ETC, we are breaking major levels. It's not, it's not great. Algo, we are in a good zone, a very good location zone, but we need a W structure, and like here, we came to seek this superior demand zone over supply, W structure. Here we did the same thing. Well, here we will have to do the same thing again. STX, we are also at support, but we also lack a W structure. Perhaps this is the first V bottom of the future structure. Jup is ugly, we have to wait, there's nothing to do but let it develop, let it re-enter. But again, it's ugly. EGLD, I won't even talk about it. No need to analyze the chart, it's totally ugly. Apt, it's the same, it's ugly. Optimism, it's the same, it's ugly. NIR, it's not great. It's a bit less ugly than the others because we have this lower low here. But we would need to re-enter the two dollars or structure a W pattern. Vet, Vet, it's clearly ugly. It's not breaking, it's ugly. We are coming back to good zones, but we need a structure. We would need to go back above this level. Sui. I would prefer to wait for a bigger structure as well and go back above the daily tunnel. For now, it's quite high. In is ugly, we have to wait, there's nothing to do. Arbitrum, it's the same, we have to wait, there's nothing to do. Stx is the same, we have to wait. Tao, we are coming back to the lower extreme. Here, we can be a bit more aggressive because, well, it's a range. We should rather switch to daily for it because it doesn't have as much history as some altcoins. Ave, we have come back to interesting support levels, but I would also wait for a structure, perhaps on daily, to refine and have an interesting entry. Hyper liquid, the zone is pretty good, but again, we don't have a reversal structure. Ber is ugly, we forget it. Aster is ugly, we forget it. And it's also Patel. So there you go, I might have forgotten a few altcoins. Yes, I'm not going to do the top 200, but in any case, it gives us a general overview of altcoins that can be interesting or not, and those that I personally will forget. So, I hope this video was enjoyable. I wish you a good week. Also, prepare your scenarios, your trading plan, and I remind you, you have until tonight to join "Become a Trader" by clicking on the first link in the description. I wish you a very good evening and I'll see you tomorrow for another video.