Transcription
um you know bringing in your pricing as well. Um I don't know if uh I don't know how you want to structure this, but I'm here to support you and uh show a little bit within Pebble if if needed. Um although uh I do want to let you know, Ryland, I think we're not showing on our YouTube right now, so I don't know if there's something you need to click. I didn't want to cut you off earlier, but uh let's see. It's what I heard. That's what my assistant told me. I'm not 100% sure. Let's see on your end. You're coming through. I believe it's good now. It just started. Yeah. Cool. All right.
So, I'm going to go over basically the framework of what I teach the people in my team that are going to be in a comp position at my land business. So, basically guys, taking all this information, I really recommend you guys take notes because this is strategy that I've come up with over several years uh in order to allow me to scale uh to such a high level. So my business, we're comping anywhere between 80 and 150 comps per day. So we're doing a lot and we're making sure we're very accurate. These 80 to 150 comps, they're in depth. We're we're really analyzing these deals and and these comps, these are deals that are coming inbound. So leads who accepted offers, leads who are interested in in working with us. So these are these are hot leads. So it requires us to to spend a lot of time and make sure we're getting these numbers right.
So let's go over the two types of comping. So both of these are equally important, but one comp is going to be your blind offer. Okay? So this is for anybody who's trying to qualify leads on the front end. So, let's say you're sending letters, blind offer letters to sellers, or maybe you're sending text messages, or maybe you're pricing out your data so that your cold caller can have like a baseline price to work with and throw out to people as they come in. So, these are your your qualifying numbers. These are your your blind offers or your range offers, whatever you want to do. It could be blind, it could be range. I I don't recommend neutral that much. I prefer to always have some type of baseline price to offer when we're qualifying leads. And then once we have our blind offers and we get we get on the phone with sellers and we start talking to them, we have our deal offers. So both these are equally important. Blind offers we're just pricing basically by acreage. Uh deal offers we're pricing that individual property. So, one is sort of analyzing the area that you're going after and coming up with an offer based on that by acreage. The other one is actually going in depth, looking at every single comp in that area, anything in a direct radius of your property, for sale listings, all that stuff. And then also making adjustments based on the conditions of the property. So, if it's sloped, if there's wetlands, flood zones, we're looking at that. So, the strategies like they're going to be different for each one and I'm going to be going over both of these in this um so that you guys are on the same page with me. Okay.
So, I'm going to share my screen. Okay. So before we get into anything regarding comps, I want to go over some statistics. Okay? So don't worry if you haven't been to statistical class. I'll I'll dumb this down as much as possible uh so that anybody can understand it. But think of the bell curve. Okay? So bell curve is a statistical analysis on a data set. So think of this axis right here as the um the acreage or sorry the price per acre. Okay. And then think of this as basically the quantity in your data set. So this is 34.1% of your uh of your data set. Okay. So 34% of all the comps in your area. another 34% and then this is your price per acre. So basically these are your outliers. So this is the lowest price per acre and this is the highest price per acre. And then what we're looking at in general is let's just call this 10 acres. So we're looking at a 10acre comp or a 10acre property and we're trying to figure out the value of it. So value goes from the lowest point to the highest point. So let's just call this 5,000 an acre. Let's call this 15,000 an acre. So this is your median. So this would be your average of your entire data set of comps. So if you're looking at a bunch of 10acre comps from 5,000 acre to 15,000, this would be 7500 per acre, right? Most people would say this is market value. Okay? And I'm going to tell you that this is not market value when you're a land investor. This is the average. But there's many things adjusting this data set to make that average. up here, your your 15,000 acre comps. That could have been a house that got into your data set. That could have been a commercial property that got into your data set. Maybe there's gold on the property. Like the these really mess with our data set and and so do these little ones. Like this could have been an absolutely landlock horrible property that's on a side of a hillside, right? So why would you want to consider a median price when you're a land investor trying to flip a property as quickly as possible? So maybe if you listed your property for a year to two years, you might get a value somewhere in here. Maybe you might get something over here, right? But our goal as land flippers is to turn over these properties as quickly as possible. And because of that, I've realized with the hundreds of deals we've done in our business, our market value is somewhere in here. Our market value is in this lower range of the bell curve. That being said, I'm comping very, very conservatively. I'm never using median, okay? I am never saying, "Oh, that's the average of all the solds, therefore it's worth that." Never. That never happens. Get that out of your head that you can get that much for your property. I absolutely hate when somebody sends me a comp analysis and they put the average of all the comps in their data set. It's you're never going to get that. You might you might get lucky, but for the most part, from what I've seen, you end up somewhere down here. Okay, this is basically at at this price. If it's a quality property, it has road frontage, it's somewhat flat, and you want to sell it within 30 to 90 days, it's probably going to be in this price point. But if you let it sit on the market or it's commercial and you're patient, you might end up somewhere in the middle or somewhere slightly above that. But for the most part, we're sitting here. So, get that ingrained in your head because I comp very conservatively. You're going to be shocked why I comp so low. And this is because because I do that. Jesse, you have any questions on that? No, I'm good. Perfect.
So, Ari sent me the data set that you guys exported together in the previous webinars. So, I'm going to briefly pull up that data set and we're going to go over your mailer pricing or your your blind offer pricing. So regardless of what you're doing, mail, text, cold call, email, um it would be the same framework for this if you're trying to qualify your leads based on price. Okay. So let me pull that up. Okay, so this is our Excel spreadsheet of everything um inside that data set. So, I'm gonna what I'm going to quickly do is turn this into a Excel spreadsheet instead of a CSV. So, let me change this real quick. Okay, bring it back in. All right, so the first thing I'm going to do, I'm just going to remove calculated acreage so we don't get confused. I always go off of normal acreage. This is basically what the deed conveys uh calculated. It's based on the the GIS inside land insights. So we're going to go off of off of normal acreage. So I would never go off of calculated acreage. This is what the deed says. This is usually what's going to be the most accurate. Okay. So I can just move this column over here just to make things simpler. And then I'm going to add a column that is value. Okay. And then I'm also going to add another column that is offer. So right here we're going to figure out what our value is and then we're going to make an offer based on that value. So next thing I'm going to do is I'm going to filter our data set in smallest to largest order. So as you can see here our minimum acres is 2.5 acres and our max is 711 acres. So, we know it's we need to price out 2.5 to 711 acres. So, I'm just going to go into a different spreadsheet. I'm going to take that note. 2.5 to 711. And then I'm going to show you guys my strategy for quickly pricing your direct mail offers. So, our lowest point is 2.5 and our highest is 711. And we have to connect the dots. Okay? It's going to be very difficult for me to comp every single acreage point because there's 3.73 acre properties. There's 17.5 acre properties and you can't find comparables that close. But we know what the normal size properties are that you can consistently see in in your comps. So the normal size properties are 2.5 let's say five 10 20 40 80 uh 100 200 and our final one would be 711. So the most common property that I see is 5 acres. Okay. 80 acres is very common, 40 acres very common. 20 is very common, but a 17 acre is not common. Right? So, you you guys will understand this in a second, but what I'm going to do is I'm going to figure out the values of each one of these, and then I'm going to do a rise overrun equation to connect the dots between these. So, this is a way to quickly create your trend analysis without actually having to do a trend analysis with a bunch of stats. So, it's going to be difficult. Like, you guys may get lost at some points. Um, but just just watch very closely and just listen to what I say and things will start making sense if if you listen carefully.
So, the first thing I'm going to do is I'm going to figure out what a 2.5 acres worth. So, what I'm going to do is I'm going to go to land insights and we're in Gilchrist County. I believe this is Florida. Hey, Ron, we can't uh we can't see Landon sites. It's just your spreadsheet right now. Yeah. Yeah. Oh, sorry. Okay, cool. So, I believe it's right county, Florida. Yep. I'm just going to pull a random property from there. So, here's our link. I'll just plug it in here. Okay. So, this is the property. What I'm going to do now is I'm just going to go into our coping tool. and we're try to figure out what a 2.5 acres is worth in this county. All right. So, what I'm going to first do is I'm going to put our sold comps to two years. So, this puts in our data set the last two years of comps. What I've realized um in the last two years values haven't really changed in the land market over the last two years. So, even three years it hasn't changed that much. So I'm just going to do two years so that everything in our data set goes two years back. And then we can just go in here. So some people like to make estimates on value based on the spreadsheet. I'm a very visual person. So you can go statistics and and figure out like your lower end of the bell curve based on the statistics. But I'm a very visual person. So I like to use the visual tool. So, I'm going to set my acreage bands two to three acres. And let's see what comes in our data set. So, we have the lowest two and the highest three acres. And then you're going to see everything that comes through in that acreage band. So, everything that shows up is within two to three acres. And for the most part, when I'm comping my blind offers, I'm just looking at sold comps. When I'm comping deals, I'm going to start looking at for sale comps because that's going to be more relevant to what's now because we can Sorry, we're still coming through. Yep. Okay. So that we can see what we're competing with on the market. All right. So, there's not much going on inside the area of this property, but I'm just trying to figure out where our county lines are. Okay, we didn't have that selected. Okay, so now we can see our county lines. So, I'm not going to use any of these comps in here because that's outside our county. I'm going to be looking more at what's inside our county. So there's not a lot locally in this area, but since we're pricing by the county in this situation, we can use all these comps in the county. So again, bell curve, I'm looking for stuff down here, right? So lower end of the spectrum. Okay, so we see 18k per acre. We see a 5k per acre that's under contract. Let's zoom in here. 16k. Some more in here. 16K per acre. 19K 18K. I'm assuming that there's something horribly wrong with that property if it's so low. 15K per acre. 22K. 22K. So I'm seeing like a range of 15k to 25k an acre in this data set. So I'm leaning more towards that 15k to 16k value because obviously there's 22k acre comps but that is more up here or more over here whereas 15ks more over here 16k is more over here. And then you have some of your outliers like that one that seemed like it was horribly wrong. The 5k an acre, the 2k an acre. There's probably something wrong with those properties and we can confirm that. So, let's go find that one. This one right here. This one's under contract for 5k an acre. Let's view it. property zone ESA2. I don't know what that means. If you see recreational property in your data set, there might be something wrong with it. That's always weird when someone says recreational and not like residential or agriculture. Um, let's see. You have to install your own well, septic system, power lines in front of the property. Property is located 100% entirely within a flood zone. That's why it's so low. So, we discovered it's so low because it's in a flood zone, right? That's why it's in in that range. So, we would just take that out of our data set and we're going to rely on those 15k acre to 20k an acre comps. So, at the end of the day, I've realized that 2 and a half acres, so we can just mark a 15k [Music] I'll just go find it in here. So, I'm just going to mark it. And what the manual comp tool is going to do is it's going to give me that value. So, it thinks 20 2.5 acres is worth 37,500. So, what I'm going to do is I'm going to bring that into our spreadsheet. And that's our value. Okay, that's our conservative value.
So, next what I'm going to do is I'm going to look at five acres and figure out what the five acres are worth. Okay, so we'll just pull another property from our data set. Go to five. Find this link. Uhoh. And we're just going to plug it in. All right. So, things are coming a little slow on my end since we're streaming, but it's loading. So, there's our 5 acre. We're just going to click comp. And again, we're going to we're going to set our filters, our acreage filters. We'll set that four to let's do six just so we're getting stuff like that's 4.5 subs that's 5.5. All right. And then we're going to set our sold costs back two years and then let's go searching. So again bell curve lower end of the bell curve. That's what we're doing. Okay, so we've got a lot of here that's probably in a flood zone just like the last one, but for the most part, I'm seeing a large range. So, I'm seeing 10k an acre, 15k an acre, another 10k an acre, 13k an acre, 10k an acre. 17k an acre. So again, I'm very visual and it doesn't have to be perfect what that is in that bell curve, but instantly what I'm seeing is like that lower end is 10k. Let's just make sure there's nothing wrong with these 10k comps. If these properties that sold look like they're decent properties, there's nothing wrong with them. We should be good. So let's look at the description. I'm not seeing anything that sticks out to me that would be make it there's something to be wrong with the property. So, let's look at another one. Let's look at this one. It's kind of a bad listing. I don't even know if there's a description. Yeah, there's no description on that one. Land is cleared. It looks like there's somewhat of road access. I'm not sure what I can't really make out what what's the situation with this road access. Let's just read the description. Properties cleared. Doesn't bring anything about road access. I'm just going to keep looking. Look at this. Yeah, our descriptions are horrible in this area. Okay, this looks like a very decent property as long as it's not in a flood zone. This sold for 12k an acre. Flood zone X high and dry. So, I don't know what flood zone X is, but he said high and dry. There's pro houses were built on both sides of it. I assume there's nothing wrong with it if houses are both built on both sides and it's flat. So, this seems like a decent property to me. And that's a 12k an acre. And then we consistently saw 10k acre comps. Another 11k. If we're consistently seeing that, that would be very abnormal for all of these to be horrible properties. So, I'm assuming here it's probably worth 10k an acre conservatively. The conservative value. Again, you might get 17k an acre in some places, but I'm being so conservative that like I know if we get this if we list this for 10 acre 10K an acre, it's probably going to sell very fast. I'm not saying it's not going to sell at 17K an acre, but I'm always conservative. And usually when I'm conservative, I'm always correct. Okay? So, obviously, we're going to try to list it at 17K an acre. Like if if we really want to juice out the value, unless we're on a short timeline, we might just list it at 12K an acre and then slowly drop the price over time. But 10K an acre is my lower end of the bell curve value. It's over here, right? It's in here. If we're here, we're conservative. We can be very confident on that value. I wouldn't want to say market value 17K an acre when we see a bunch of 10K an acre comps in the last two years. So, what I'm going to do is I'm going to bring that to the spreadsheet. And I realized that 5 acres is worth 10k an acre, which is 50,000. Okay, so now you guys are probably thinking in your head, what about 3.5 acres? What about four acres? How do we come up with that value? So, this is where we bring up y = mx +b. This is a very simple um math equation. So it's basically your rise over run. At what rate does it linearly climb? Linear. So we're doing a linear calculation. We're not doing a curve any exponential curves. We're just keeping it simple for you guys. Linear. Okay. So we're going to do linear between these two. As soon as you equals mx plus b, I just had a flashback of math suddenly. I was like down there big guy. Oh man, you guys, everyone in this group's probably like, "What the heck's y= mx plus b." All you guys will understand it when I break this down in Excel. So, all we're doing is just figuring out the linear rate at which this climb which this climbs. Okay, if you guys have if you guys are confused at all, just just look this up and you'll figure out linear y= mx plus b. But this is it. So we're figuring out our rise over run. So how much it goes up in value as it goes up in acreage. So this equals the top minus the bottom divided by top acreage minus the bottom. Okay. So that's our slope. Our linear slope is 5,000. So every time it climbs an acre, it goes up $5,000. So if you were at three acres and it goes to four acres, it climbed up in value $5,000 over that time. So now I'll just bring up some examples. So let's say we're trying to fill in the gaps here. So we know this is 37500 and this is 50,000. We're going to do it is equals your beginning value plus your climb in acreage. So it went up 0.5, right? And then times your slope 5,000. And so that we drag it and that value stays there. We just add these dollar signs to keep that value there. And then we can drag it. So, we can drag this. We'll see that. Hey, I told you guys slope is 5,000. Every time it goes up in value by one acre, goes up 5,000. And this works. Let's say this works for every little acreage point. Let's say it's 4.3 acres. Works for this as well. We can drag it and automatically calculates that that jump in value. So, it connects the dots. We can drag this and this is at 50,000. I didn't put that equation there, but we go here. Goes up to 50,000. So between 2.5 and 5 acres, we're just filling in the gaps. And this is the best way I've realized to do it um quickly. So we can just drag this equation into um your data set. So we can just use 5,000 instead. So we'll just go inside our data set. So we're doing the calculation for the value equals. So this original value is going to be what was it? 37,500. So we just want to have a starting point and then we're going to have our end point as well. So that's 5 acres and that is $50,000 value. We're simply going to do equals the same exact equation we just did. This plus this minus this times our slope which was 5,000. So as you can see it's 2.5 acres. Therefore it's going to stay the same but as we start climbing it's going to climb in value. So, as you can see, it started climbing in value. So, we just drag this all the way to 5 acres, and our gaps are filled in. So, there's all your values for filling in the gaps. So, simply what you're going to do over time is you're just going to do that same exact thing for the rest of these acreage points. And that's how you can quickly build a confident offer list without making it too complex. You guys might think it's a little complex in the beginning, but when you do this over and over and over again, you're going to realize it's not that hard. You just follow this framework. You can watch this video over and over again, but this is how my team does it. This is how we build out lists at scale accurately. So, you're just going to go through the rest of these. You're going to figure out what these values are. So, let's say this is $90,000. You're going to do the same exact thing. So, you're going to figure out what your slope is first. So, your slope is this minus this divided by this minus this. So your new slope for this difference is 8,000. So you're just doing the same equation between 50,000 and 90,000 for 8,000. So let's just say that's the value. You're going to bring this in here and going to do the same thing. So it equals this plus this minus this times 8,000 which is your new [Music] slope. And then you just drag it all the way to 10 acres. As you can see there, it lines up. So, you're just connecting the dots in between those. And we're doing it linearly. What, as you guys know, like land kind of follows an exponential decay graph. I'll show you [Applause] that land does this. Land values do this over time. So over it follows more of like this kind of curve and it eventually kind of flattens out over time. So as you know low acreage it sells at a really high price per acre. So call this your price per acre and call this your acres over time. land starts at a very high price per acre, but slowly, like as you're reaching, let's say, 700 acres, like between 400 and 700 acres, your price per acre isn't going to change that much. But between two acres and 10 acres, it's it's going to change a significant amount. So, it usually follows this. And this is hard to model if you're using stats. But if you want to like use you if you want to comp visually, which I like to do, the best way to create this is by doing linear connections between certain points. And over time, if you graph that price per acre, it's going to follow somewhat of this trend. So, this is how I've dumbed it down so that we can figure this out. And I see a lot of you guys here, you're throwing in some equations. Uh, everyone does it differently. I'm just explaining it so that anybody can do it. Obviously, there's other ways you can do this. There's like certain equations you can use in Excel. You can put in a whole uh sale price spreadsheet and create this trend line and put that in your data set. But that can be complex for a lot of people. And I'm just trying to teach a system that works and is scalable and it's not too complicated so that anybody on your team can do this in the future. It's going to be difficult to teach somebody a crazy equation that you plug into Excel and they're based in the Philippines and they know a little bit of math. But like this you could teach anybody like the the process I taught is you could teach anybody to do it. But obviously there's more complex ways to do it. If you want to take it further, you're definitely I I have your approval to or you have my approval to go do it. This is this is the way I do it. Jesse, you have any questions? No, I'm good. I I did see a a question there. Uh Brian Bri Byron asked if you know if you did conservative pricing like this and you sent out like 5,000 mailers, do you think you get a you know, can you get a deal done? You think do you think you could run a 5,000 letter per month land flipping business with this conservative pricing or you extremely high volume of mail in order to get uh enough deals? So, let's go over offers. Okay, so this should answer your question. All right. So, we know that the conservative value of 2.5 acres is 37,500. If we list it at that, it's probably going to sell at that. So, we can make a 50% offer on that value. So, that would just be 18,750. Okay. So, I'm very confident if you get it at that price, as long as it's a decent property would sell it is. Now, sometimes people want to be more competitive and Byron, your question is more related to like the offer percentage on this. So, if we're be I'm being conservative like I know this is probably the value of the land out here. So, we offer 50%. That's our margin right there. It's about a 50% margin. It's going to be less than that after closing costs and realtor commissions. So, I honestly don't recommend you go over 50% of market or 50% offer because you're just not going to have enough margins. I mean, you can make a double close happen with this, but it's going to be difficult to do and your margins are down. I would rather just make a lower offer. Yes, you're going to have a successful business if you offer 50% of value with this conservative pricing, but I don't recommend going over 65% offer on on this. If you did 0 65, I don't really recommend making that offer. That is it's not worth it at all. You want that deal to be low. And I'll be honest here with you, I'm doing this I'm doing a 40% offer on this. That's what I would be offering if I were you on this data set. I would just drag this down. Ryland, coming back to the comping that you did earlier, sorry to cut in here. You were doing that at scale. were you or or uh I guess I just sort of answered but you were doing that at scale. Is that correct? Yes. We're able to do this at scale. We're doing this every day. Yeah. Yeah. So I I guess I'll I'll chime in here. You know, and that's that's what's so great about what Ryland's doing here is when you're sort of creating all this data for yourself, it makes making offers or pricing things a lot quicker when it lives in one place. So I would grab this out of land insights, do the math that you need to do, bring that all in with your data set so it lives in that your single source of truth. So when you do need to run your comps or sorry when you do need to make an offer or pricing whatever it is. Now, Ryland's here talking about doing a blind offer, but uh you know, you have all of that information with you and it's very very easy, you know, to just hop into Pebble to say generate an offer, generate a campaign based off these numbers already that that already exists for the the the property itself. So, so I guess what I'm trying to say is the more data you can bring in, the easier uh your process is going to be. Um, and and it's easy to to update information too if you want to run the math afterwards, but I think you'll do this most you you'll do this do this kind of work up front. Uh, anyways, so um I just wanted to add that. Yeah, and I agree with you, Jesse. Like guys, it's very important you have this data inside your CRM. You can upload this all into Pebble and a lead calls you, you'll figure out who that is calling you. Yeah. What that offer is you made so you don't have to dig anywhere else for it. Yeah. And then you can also pull the link to the property so you can quickly view it. So make sure that this link to the property is inside Pebble. You upload that inside Pebble and you can quickly just open it and analyze it. Yeah. So when you're on that call, you know, you have everything. So I I think like one thing to understand about Pebble is it it serves as sort of a database for for the properties that you brought in. Sure. you're going to link out to things like this and like land in sites and and you know, be able to look at things a little bit more closer, whatever it may be. But, you know, we're not just capturing leads here. We're managing the sheer amount of data. You know, thousands of of property records here. Um, so you want to be able to pull that up quickly. Um, again, we sort of facilitate for that, make that quite easy to, you know, bring up immediately when you're on that call or whatever it may be. Yeah. And like Pebble basically just serves as the service that connects the dots, the service that organizes everything for you because there's a lot there's a lot going on here. There's a lot of data and Pebble just makes it so easy to organize it all so that all you have to worry about is really just the conversation you're having with the seller. That should be your only worry after you export data. Yeah. That conversation. So, we've made it easy for you guys to organize it. So, make sure your CRM is is organized. Make sure you you follow all the steps to make sure like you've got a clean room. You know, you can't scale a business if you don't have a clean room.
So, this leads into deal comping. So, let's say somebody calls you inside Pebble and you have a conversation with them. They're interested in selling. Guy says, "Hey, I I saw you offered Let's just look at a random property. Saw you offered $34,432 on my 9.51 acre property. And you're like, "Yep, I did. Do you have any interested in that?" And he says, "Yep, I I want to sell it at that." Or maybe, "You know what? I want $45,000 for my property." Okay. Property we think is worth $86,000. Guy wants $45,000 for it. They'll say, "Uh, okay." He'll ask a bunch of questions about the property. Is there a flood zone on it? Is there utilities? all that stuff. And then you say, "Okay, let me bring this by my team or let me look at it myself, look at the property, and let me I'll I'll let you know if I can do $45,000 for that." So, after that call, you're going to go in your CRM, you're going to pull that link to the Land Insights property, and we're going to analyze this, figure out what it's worth. So, my pumping strategy is a little different when a deal comes in. It's a little more diligent. So, instantly I'm going to look at wetlands, flood zones. Okay, this property's probably not worth it. I mean, there are Maybe it's not ruined. There might be properties in these properties got developed on with that flood zone. Yeah, it's wetlands. So flood zone combined with wetlands. So all of this is a flood zone, but there's a wetland here. You're probably not going to be able to build here. Therefore, we'll need need to make a discount. So this is going to be an interesting one because this is a complex one. This is very difficult for a lot of new people to come. difficult for everybody to comp. I don't even think there's utilities like power lines right here. So, we're gonna have to comperly on this. So, we'll start with what is what are normal property selling at in this area. So, we'll click comp property. And we're already seeing some similar properties in the area. So 9 this property is 9.5 acres and then these comps are for 9.51. So I wonder if this is the same property. Okay. It's that shape. So, yeah, that's the same property. It was It just sold July 12th in 2024. It would have been really hard to see this without any other platform. This instantly raises a red flag if this guy reaches out to me and says, "Yeah, I want to sell." Because this just sold uh less than a year ago for $46,000. Just the same exact property. So, that's just one way you can find a red flag. If something sold recently and they want to sell again, there might be something wrong with it. Or maybe it was listed and it never sold. And we can confirm this. We can confirm the price it sold at. We go down. Yep. So, it sold for $46,000 10 months ago. So, we can see that data right here inside our data set and confirm it actually sold at that price. So, let's find something we we haven't had a uh I guess let's let's comp it anyways. Let's comp it. And I'll just go through my framework of thought. So, we're looking at 9.5 acres. Let's look at 13. Let's look at uh let's go eight. Let's go 8 to 12. Just so we're getting kind of stuff on both ends. And then we want to go to sold comps. We want to go two years back. See what's going on. So always the first thing I'm looking at is what's listed on the market right now. So this is different framework than deal uh than offer comping blind offer comping because this is a deal that's on the table. That means if we buy this, it's probably going to be within the next 3 weeks and then if we list it, it'll be about a week later. So within the next four weeks, we have to list this property for sale. So we have to start thinking about what's our competition when we list it on the market. So, I'm going to look at all the for sale properties, which are all the blue ones, and I'm going to go in ascending order to see which ones are messed up within the vicinity of this area. So, again, I'm a visual person. You guys can always go down this table and look at it, but I like to be visual on the map, which is why I always use the map. So, the lowest one I've seen so far is 8K an acre. Yeah. in the whole county. The lowest listing right now is 8K acre. We're going to look at that and qualify it. See if there's anything wrong with it. Okay. So, it hasn't been updated in the data set. So, therefore, we don't have to worry about it. So, let's go up now. What's the the next lowest listing in the area? Everything's pretty high. So, okay, that that was 8K. Yeah. I mean, everything on the market is listed high, so we don't really have to worry about it. But let's say there was a 6K an acre comp and we're seeing consistently like 11K, 14K, 13K and there's a 16K an acre listing. We don't have to worry about that listing because now we're like the lowest value is that lower end of the bell curve for sales. So we don't have to worry about that for sale listing because we have to list it at that lower end of the bell curve of what's been sold, right? So we don't have to worry about this now. So now we're looking at that lower end of the bell curve for what sold. So I'm visually figuring out where are these properties in the data set. 12K an acre, 13K, 3K. There's got to be something wrong with that. 8K. Let's see if there's anything wrong with this one. This sold for 8K. They sold for 8,400. Is there anything wrong with these? I'm just reading the description. Looking for red flags. Well, septic on the property. Abandoned home. I don't care about that. It's fine. Doesn't say there's anything wrong with it. So, let's just confirm that with this one. Is there anything wrong with this one? Looks like it was thinned timber. You can kind of tell it was thinned. 10 acres of planted pines, no deed restrictions, manufactured homes. So, it looks like there's nothing wrong with it. So, we can use these. You can say, "Okay, these are on the lower end of the bell curve in our county, 8K an acre." I previously remember that we comped 10 acres. No, we comped five acres. Let's go back. Yeah, we never comped the 10, but we comped the uh five acres at 10k an acre. And so 8k anacre makes sense because it exponentially goes down. So, I have a good feeling that 10 acres is worth 8K an acre. So, 80 grand. Again, I just threw this number out there. I I didn't actually look at that. I just threw out there to help you guys calculate this. So, 8k anacre makes sense. It's on the lower end. So, what we're going to do is we're going to select that 8k anacre comp. I'll just click select. And now it's going to give us that value 76. In this hypothetical situation, the guy wanted 45,000 76. But again, there's problems with the property and we need to adjust that price. It was in a flood zone, wetland, and I don't think there's power lines in here. So, this wetland, it covers about 50% of the property. You can't even get access to this point with those flood zones. So, realistically, you only have this much room to work with. And that makes sense why this sold so low. So, in this situation, you need to make adjustments to your value. So, we comped it like it was just a normal piece of land, but it's not a normal piece of land. This is this has flood zones and everything on it. So, this is why this tool is so important because you need to get very analytical and you need to make adjustments. So, I'll show you how I make these adjustments. So, I don't know, 60% 70% of this land is just not usable. It's just there. You can ride dirt bikes on it. You could run horses on it, but at the end of the day, like it's not really worth it. So, I'm just going to make an adjustment. So, I'm going to put 40% adjustment for that. Like I know only 30% of the land's useful, but like you can still do stuff on it, right? So, we wouldn't put a 70% discount if we can't use the land for building. But it doesn't mean we put a 70% discount on it, right? We just make a slight adjustment to that. So like 40% would make sense in this situation. So when we do that adjustment, it now calculates the value. So now it thinks it's worth 4,800 an acre. Okay. And so that is pretty close. That's literally on like exact basically of what it actually sold at. So you need to make these adjustments in these situations. You could have made the same adjustment like based on slope or any of that. And what's cool is we just did this whole analysis and this work saves. When you open this link again, it's going to show that adjustment and you can take notes down here like I adjusted value by 40% because wetland. And this all saves automatically saves. And when you open this link back up, you'll be able to open up this and look at your work again. So you avoid having to recmp ever. So what you want to do when you do this comp analysis, you want to copy this and you want to put it in Pebble so that you're organized. So now you go back to this guy. The guy wants 45 grand and it's actually really worth 45 grand. It's not a deal anymore. And you have to adjust your offer price. I think the offer was, let's see, offer was 34,000. That's that's horrible margins. 35,000 to 45. You have to call this guy back. Hey, we just discovered that there's a crazy flood zone and wetland on the property. There's no power lines. Honestly, the best we can do is $23,000. So, you'd have to go back to the guy and negotiate based on that. So that's why it's equally important to have your blind offer comping and then also your deal comping because both strategies are different and the way you comp properties are going to be different based on the situation. So that's the framework guys. That's basically what we do day day in and day out with our compounding team and our business. So I have uh several people doing that in their business and they've been very successful. So I guess at the end of the day my my word of advice is to stay conservative, stay very conservative and follow the same exact framework for comping properties. And this is a great framework and a great tool uh to scale comping and and do it the right way. Awesome. All right, Jesse, anything to to add on this or any questions you have before we get into the questions and the comments? No, appreciate you uh walking us through here in a very detailed detailed look over your shoulder way. Yeah.
So, let's see the questions. So, Art said there's a fill series equation in Excel that allows you to do this two clicks and no formulas. Okay, guys, look into that. I'm going to look into that myself. So, there's a fill series equation. I guess if you put um multiple points in your data set, it can fill it. If I look into that, look up at YouTube or chat GBT on that. I'll look into it myself. Um Ed asks, "How is this different than priced comp reports?" I mean, this allows you to be hands-on and and look at these on a map. It allows you to make adjustments to your value. You can also use the calculator So, this is a cool way to comp your deal. So, let's say you want to offer 50%. And then you want to bake in your realtor commission. So, let's say you sell this with a realtor and then you have your closing costs. We can figure out what your profit would be if you offered 50%. So, if you offer 50% of this value, your profit margin would actually be this at the end of the day. It wouldn't be this because of all these baked in expenses. Um, there's also just tons tons more that no other tools I've ever used has. And this was made by a land investor, right? Somebody's doing this day in and day out. It's very visual. It overlays everything you need. We have different ways to point out green flags and red flags in this area. So, before we even opened up the overlays, we would have saw that this has more than 50% of flood zone and 50% wetlands. And it was purchased in the last 18 months. So you can just quickly make assumptions and quickly see red flags so that you can go dive into this stuff without having to actually go do it yourself. So there's there's tons here. I mean I would recommend just you can look into both tools but at the end of the day like everyone says ours is the best and yeah I mean I I can't think of a tool that would be better than this at this point. So, yep. And there's also a new tool we're coming out with in the the coming months that is going to revolutionize this whole process. So, stay tuned for that. I can't speak too much on it, but I can say it it's been a game changer in my business so far because we've been testing it. land of or let's go. Ryan, I need to hop off here in a minute. I can let you continue. I've got another call I got to hop into, but uh I'll let you continue here. Okay, sounds good. In here, guys. And uh yeah, if you guys have any questions about Pebble, make sure you head over to pebblei.com. You can book a demo there with us. Happy to talk to you about uh some of the things that people are doing with land insights and Pebble. But uh yeah, thanks again, Ryan. Thanks, Jesse. All right, Mark Hudson said, "Do you price by aggregate by various acreage and conditions of the land?" So, you saw my process, you saw what I do. I'll make adjustments based on the conditions of each property when a deal comes through, but there's no way we can do that on the front end. But we can do it on the back end because we're looking at deals by deal. But there's there's no way you can accurately figure out the value of the land based on the conditions, the comps, and everything on the front end. It's just it's not going to be accurate. Uh do you use tragedy or Gemini at background? No. No, we're not using chatbi. We have internal AI calculations that we're doing and we also have a beta AI comp value. So, it comped us at 57,000. After manually reviewing it, which I always recommend doing, we ended up at this $45,000 value because of that flood zone because all the the electricity. Byron, follow-up question. If you are only sending 5,000 letters per month, will enough people respond to these very conservative offers or will you need 10 to 20k a month to get enough responses? People will respond to these letters. Yes. And if you're offering higher than that, you're going to have a lot of problems with renegotiating your business. I just had a conversation with coach who is running his land business and he made the error of offering too much on a lot of these properties. Maybe at like 60 to 70% margins. There's just 60% to 70% of market value. The margins aren't just there. and now he's having to circle back with these sellers, negotiate with them after they already thought they were going to get this amount that you offered and it just pisses them off. So, I always say do it right on the front end to avoid those horrible conversations and those angry sellers. Sure, if you're a really, really good salesman, you can offer more and your response rate is going to be slightly higher because you offered more, but you still have to ne negotiate back on the back end. So, choose your strategy at the end of the day. I'm just saying I recommend 40% of that conservative value because you're going to do it right on the front end. You saw with this property, we were still off because that flood zone, that problem with the property. So, that deal probably never would have happened because we just offered too high originally. We had to circle back. But if that was a correct like a a decent property, we would have been right on the margin. We would have we would have offered perfectly. So, those are my recommendations. I'm going to leave it there, guys. I've got a bounce. But hopefully you got some value out of this and we're going to continue doing more of these webinars in the future. If you guys like the tool, if you want to learn more about the tool, we can go in depth more with you all for free. We'll do a demo call at landinsights.co/apply and we'll give you a thousand or more free hot leads. So, we'll scrub we'll find a hot market for you. will scrub that data for you and you can go in price that data and go mail it out yourself without spending a dollar. So if you guys want to test out the platform, I recommend you book a demo call landinsights.co/apply. Again, it's all free. We'll give you free leads and we'll go over the tool and any more question you guys have. So appreciate it y'all. Have a great week and we'll see you in the coming weeks. Thank you.