Transcription
[Music] Hello everyone and welcome to Rift. Today, we will look together at the different action zones that I will be watching this week for my trading setups, possibly. So let's start by doing a quick check on the weekly. On the weekly, we see that we are still on a very bullish trend. So, with a low that was made here in March 2024 at $75,000 and one that was made very recently in early October at $126,000, quite simply. So what do we have from this level? We had two big liquidation cascades, and for now, we are still in a bullish bias on the weekly. On the daily, what do we see daily? We are in a movement of uncertainty. We are in what is called a range. I will draw it fully so that you can see it well. Hop, I'll take my here. I'll take my ruler over there. And we clearly have our range with our little 10% extensions. What is the market doing? We see it navigating between the upper and lower bounds of its range, taking support from time to time on the zone in the middle of the range. So we recently visited the top of the range. We went hunting for liquidity just above. By the way, the other short setup here that I didn't take. Why? Because I wasn't in front of the computer at these hours. And then what did we go looking for? We went looking for the band there. The logic would be what? If we continue this range, it would mean precisely that we go looking for the middle of the range at a minimum, then possibly the top of the range. Now, if we are rejected by the middle of the range at that point, we will test the bottom of the range again, as was done here with the top of the range, quite simply, before going to look for the other band. So where are the zones I'm watching? It's here, the zone around $115,000 and a bit higher, so the top of the range around $121,000. These are two zones that I am observing, and these are two zones in which I will be looking for setups. I will not take longs on these setups. Why? Because if I look at the CME side, we have a rather bearish close at this level, which is identical to the fact that we have perhaps good probabilities of retesting lower. What I want to play for now is a bearish continuation on the H4 timeframe because the H4 is currently bearish. We have the big confluence zone here. So if I transfer 50%, we see that the 50% are also exactly on this zone. Furthermore, it is the $100,000 zone. So a zone on which there will probably be a rebound. Then, if I observe the market's reaction precisely since the launch of the ETFs here, since we have the CME, since the institutional investors are on the market, we systematically have rebounds here on the IMS50. And so if the pattern continues at that point, we can imagine having a rebound on this zone. What does that mean? It means that for now, I estimate the probabilities of going lower to be rather high. So I rather want to play short setups precisely. So, I have defined my two action zones in which I would want to look for shorts. And if I switch to H4, we see that the trend is clearly bearish on H4 despite a momentum that is rebuilding upwards. It is rebuilding upwards. Why? Quite simply, perhaps to correct the last movement. So, starting from this principle, it is this level here that remains the protected level where liquidity was injected. If we come back to test this midrange, there are good probabilities that we will look for the bottom of the range to see if we break the bottom of the range and go looking, as we said earlier, for $100,000, which could make a nice short setup. If we break this zone, if this zone fails. If the sellers fail in these zones, at that point, we can look at the zone approximately, which will also be a zone heavily defended by sellers around $121,000. If I switch to H1, we see that the H1 trend has turned bullish again by breaking this level here. Here, we are clearly on a structure that has started to move upwards again, which coincides with what we saw on H4, the momentum rebuilding. So we are on a bullish structure on H1. Here, I see that we are on a zone close to overbought, okay? And that here we are facing a major resistance. It is also conceivable that this zone will not be fully worked through. At that point, it's not a problem, we won't have taken positions and won't have lost money on a setup. Then, if we want to play long, we could play the range, but it would clearly be against the trend for now, and that's not something I would recommend. So to play long, what does that mean? It means looking for the setup here. By the way, I think the setup has passed, it was there. So playing precisely to look for at least the middle range. If I look at H1, we see that here we have the first break of this level. We have the retest of the accumulation zone, quite simply, and we have the confirmation of the structure. However, this happens in the middle of the night during the Asian market. So these are not hours when we are usually in front of the screens. So these are setups that are not easy to take. The second setup we could take would be precisely to consider a long in this zone here to continue the H1 trend, to continue the correction trend of this H4 dip, to go look for this zone there. Taking the position now is absolutely not interesting. Why? Because it will give us a rather poor RR. Okay. So RR1, that's not at all what we are looking for in our way of doing things. We could very well wait for much lower zones to look for an RR of 5. At that point, it might be worth playing a long if we ever have a setup that forms in this zone, perhaps on a 5-minute. We could even keep a small percentage to go for a small 10% of the position to go higher, to go further among you. An RR of 5, for me, I find it largely sufficient. So that's it for the setups. Otherwise, similarly here when we are in the action zone, the largest action zone, look for different short setups. So a reversal of the structure into a bearish structure to realign the M5 trend in which we will look for our setup with the H4 trend to simply continue the bearish trend. We will also observe something else. We will quickly look at the volume profiles, the different action zones on the latest movements. So here, we see that we are working on the POC of last week, so the control point of last week, and that's why it makes it a good resistance, quite simply. So we risk having some work and probably a rejection from this zone. If we are rejected, what can we retest? To retest the lower band of the VAH, which is located here around $106,000. If we manage to pass it, at that point, we could say that we had retested our upper zone here, that is to say around $113,000, $114,000, $115,000. Precisely the zone we highlighted earlier. We see that the POC of the previous week is also located here in this zone. So that makes it a good potential action zone here, and it perfectly corresponds to the zone we placed on the other chart. Another thing we see, if we manage to break this high here, it would mean that the next working zone will be located here on the upper volume zone of the week before that, with also the POC of the week before that which was located right here. So we still have an interesting working zone here, around $121,000. So the volume zones, the trading zones, they correspond perfectly with the zones we determined on our previous chart. So we have quite a few confluences on these zones. So we will just have to observe if our setup takes place in these zones. That's why you saw that I put my little arrows to look for shorts in these positions. A quick word on the spot market. Spot market on Bitcoin, we clearly, we clearly, we did not close above the weekly level. Okay, we swallowed it back, but for me, it remains a warning sign. That is to say, I don't think that clearly invalidates the fact of retesting this key level of $100,000. So that's really the level where I will expect a reaction to look for my long positions. If we don't go there, at that point, I will really wait for confirmation of a setup. The setup could be how? It could be quite simply a validation of a break above this level. Okay? Real construction in this zone, perhaps with a small hunt and then a departure, that could be a good indication of a recovery. Another thing I would look at is if we have a break that forms at this level and then a higher low forms, it would mean that a new dynamic is forming. And at that point, we could say that we will go looking for this high to possibly go looking for the ATH. We are also in a zone where the market is very uncertain at that point. By the way, I invite you to be careful with altcoins, okay? A candle like we had with the tariff announcement on China, Trump's GAR, a candle like that, a huge liquidation candle like that. Okay? I think it killed a lot of altcoin projects. So I invite you to check your bags, to check the charts of certain cryptos you have. And if you have cryptos that closed very low with big black candles, perhaps get rid of those cryptos, even if it means taking a loss, to reinvest it in projects that have swallowed back their wicks. Here are no examples, but I think you understood well. That's all for this video. I thank you. Well, I thank you for spending time with me, and I'll see you very soon.