Altseason Dreams vs Reality - What the Data Actually Shows w/ Benjamin Cowen

If you truly want an alt season, then the only way it's going to happen is if Bitcoin USD goes to an all-time high in the next couple of months and Bitcoin dominance goes up with it. If both of those things happen, then I will even come out here and say that you could have an alt season.

Hey everyone, and thanks for jumping back into the cryptoverse. Welcome to the Milk Road Show, the daily crypto show that hopes that now that we're all sufficiently wrecked, the market will go to new all-time highs. I'm your host, John Gill, and today we are joined by the most dubious speculator in the cryptoverse, Ben Cowan. Ben holds a PhD in nuclear engineering, and it shows. He founded Into the Cryptoverse in 2019, where he applies impartial quantitative analysis to digital assets. For the last several years, Ben has been shockingly technically correct, which as everyone knows is the best kind of correct, in predicting the path for crypto markets. So, that's what we're going to have him do today. We're going to get a damage report on the flash crash, updated predictions on Bitcoin, Ethereum, when alt season, uh, a lot more than that, and we might even have some minutes to talk about Bitcoin dominance. So, if that sounds good to you, make sure you like and subscribe. Share this episode with someone who's going to enjoy it and who needs to hear it.

And as a reminder, we are doubling down here at Milk Road. Firstly, we just want to say that we hope that no one got liquidated. Things got really messy over the weekend. Uh last week though, we launched a 20% off campaign celebrating ETH's breakout and 24 hours later, the market decided to take a swan dive. But we are still confident, we still believe that ETH will hit a new all-time high before December 31st of this year. We are so convinced that we're willing to bet on this. So go Crypto Pro or Pro All Access by this Saturday. And if ETH doesn't break its all-time high by year end, just cancel and we will refund you every cent. Plus, we will throw in an extra 20% off upfront. Link is below in the show notes if you want to get in on the alpha there.

Today's episode is brought to you by Nexo, the platform that grows your crypto without locking it away and figure markets. Grow your cash like a bank. No lockups, just real returns. And without further ado, welcome to Milk Road Macro. Ben Cowan. How are you, sir?

>> Pretty good. Thanks for having me here. It's a pleasure to be here as always.

>> Well, I'm really excited to talk to you. Uh, I just wanted to start out with the thing that's on everybody's mind right now, which is this big crash we had. Friday saw nearly $20 billion in liquidations. Some estimates are saying more. Coffeezilla is back investigating alleged insider trading. Hyperlquid and Binance are fighting in Twitter beef. Um, but the market seems to have recovered. Uh, you in the immediate aftermath put out a a video called a crypto damage report. Um, it's been a few days since then. What's your assessment of the damage coming out of this? Has the market mostly digested this or do you think there's still lingering concerns from this event?

>> Usually when you get events like this, it leads to more like defensive rotations. Um, and and you can actually see like in the process of the crash we saw Bitcoin dominance like shoot up and so you can kind of see the defensive rotation and usually when you have these defensive rotations like out of alts and into Bitcoin, uh, that can last for a while, right? Like it doesn't immediately turn around. Um, like we've seen Bitcoin dominance go back down, but you're still likely going to see some lingering effects in terms of confidence in, you know, certain pockets of the market. Uh, so I would continue to expect that for at least a few more weeks. As far as the crash itself, as far as the crash itself, what's really interesting is is Bitcoin dropped about what 10%. Uh, Ethereum dropped about 30% from the high back in in August. Um, but what's interesting about that is that that that move always happens in in the having cycles, right? In the every four years in the post having year, we see Ethereum basically drop approximately 30% from the local high to the local low. It tends to find support at the 20we SMA and or the 21week EMA and it tends to just be a wick down. So while there could be some lingering um uncertainty and it might not lead to prices going up immediately for assets like Ethereum, I think ultimately we will see Ethereum find support um and and and head higher um sometime in the next few weeks. So again, this is a pretty normal drop in the market. The only the only thing we really need to think about is kind of like the length of the cycle and and when will the cycle end because whenever the top for Bitcoin is in and basically there's a countdown on how long everything else has to rally before the cycle ends for those assets as well. So, if the top is already in, then we're in a very uncomfortable position because you could argue that if the top is already in, then it would not allow for any type of alt season. But if the top is not in, then Bitcoin dominance should go back up while Bitcoin rallies to all-time highs, thus delaying the coveted alt season once again. Right? So again, in order for people to get an alt season, you have to have Ethereum at all-time highs. In order to see Ethereum durably holding all-time highs, Bitcoin has to go to all-time highs. And the process of Bitcoin going to all-time highs would naturally lead to the devaluation of altcoins against on their Bitcoin pairs. So the the the continuation of that defensive rotation that will likely last a few more weeks.

>> Gotcha. Yeah, I really appreciate the insights on that. I'm excited to hear you finally saying ETH to new all-time highs. Something that stands out to me about that perspective though is that the speed at which we saw this movement is obviously an anomaly, but nothing really broke in terms of market structure and you're saying more or less this is sort of what you were expecting to happen just maybe not in 10 minutes on a Friday afternoon. Uh, does that kind of fit with what you would say?

>> Well, if you look at the chart here, this is one of my favorite charts. I've talked about it a ton. This is total three minus USDT divided by Bitcoin. I was pointing this out a lot back in the summer that you would likely see alts rally against Bitcoin, but that then, you know, around August, September, they would form a high exactly like what they did in 2017, right? You can see that same exact move. And so, while it maybe happened faster than I thought, like I didn't I didn't necessarily know it was going to happen over like five minutes and that some altcoins would literally go to like zero. But with that said, there's also this recognition that in October of 2017, all Bitcoin pairs essentially dropped the same exact amount, right? And the thing is is like no one even remembers October of 2017 at this point in terms of like why that happened, right? Like why altcoins were devalued against Bitcoin. I mean, the reason is if you look at the chart, Bitcoin was going parabolic and altcoins were just getting sold off. Like Bitcoin went up. There was one week Bitcoin went up a lot and Ethereum dropped 12%. So, this is not like unheard of. It it it sounds crazy to say things like that that like Bitcoin could go up and and altcoins could drop, but that's actually exactly what happened in the month of September. Bitcoin went up 5% and Ethereum dropped 5%. So, when you look at a chart like this, my guess is in 8 years from now, no one's going to remember the supposed narrative for why this drop happened. Just like no one remembers why it happened in 2017. The point is is that it does always happen. Even in 2020, in October of 2020, all Bitcoin pairs dropped from like 39 point. 04 all the way down to point to to 28, which is exactly where they just went, right? They went to 28 uh 29. So again, these these moves in the market seem like they're narrative driven, but these moves tend to happen in the bull market years, and the drops by altcoins on their Bitcoin pairs usually happen in the month of October. Again, who knows what the narrative is going to be. It's not like we can forecast that out, but there's always a narrative to a company, but tends to always happen regardless.

>> Okay, so I think that's really helpful just to get that perspective on that. I want to go back and start with Bitcoin then move to Ethereum and then come back to this question about alt season. Um, you had forecasted that Bitcoin would reach a cycle top in 20 or in Q4 of 2025. Um, with a price range of prediction of around 130,000 to 155,000 somewhere in that range. Um, has anything shifted this prediction for you or is that still what you're expecting from Bitcoin for this cycle? Do you think it might take longer? Do you think it might go higher, lower? Like what is your prediction for your forecasted path for Bitcoin right now?

>> Yeah, I mean, we kind of got close to 130 already. I think we what did we hit like 126 or something?

>> I think I think this there's like a scary chart and there's an optimistic chart.

>> The scary chart is this one. This is the ROI from the low for Bitcoin compared to the last two cycles. Like this is normally when it tops out in terms of ROI as measured from the low. But one of the reasons it looks like this is because in the 2013 cycle, the 2014 bare market actually lasted 1 month or a couple of weeks into 2015. So the low instead of being in like a late 2014 is being measured from early 2015. So the pessimistic way to look at it and if this way is correct and I don't think anyone hopes that this way is correct. If this way is correct, then there is no alt season, right? Because it means the high is already in. And usually when the high is in, alt season then starts immediately, you know, um, or at least within a few days. Um, but a more optimistic way to look at it is to take the ROI from peak to peak and say if you compared that to the 2017 cycle, it would still suggest that we could still have one more move up, you know, kind of towards the end of of the fourth quarter of the year. Now, if and you can see structurally like these two cycles look really similar to each other, right? I mean, the downturn, you can see the low in 2015 happened after the low in 2022 in terms of like where in the cycle and that's why when you measure it from the low it looks different, uh, but generally they increase together and recently we've fallen off because of we would expect diminishing returns, right? So here's the thing, in order for Bitcoin to to get this move higher, we need to see liquidity, a liquidity rotation back into Bitcoin, right? We need to have a defensive rotation. We need for people to recognize that Bitcoin is the reason we're here and not all the other cryptocurrencies. And if they can do that, and if Bitcoin can go to a new all-time high, then it could theoretically lead to Ethereum going to all-time highs. My base case is that Ethereum will go to all-time highs. But here's the thing, there's a difference between Ethereum going to an all-time high and it going to an all-time high that it can actually hold for more than a few minutes, right? If Ethereum were to just go up to 5K and sweep the high again and then drop again like it did last time, that's not going to lead you to an alt season, right? In order to get an alt season, you have to have Ethereum hold 5K. But again, you can't have that unless Bitcoin is going up a lot more and liquidity is flowing back to the king. So that's how I see this whole thing playing out. Like right now, we're at a very precarious position for Bitcoin. And what I'm looking for so there's no ambiguity is the cycle. There's still opt there's still a reason to be optimistic as long as Bitcoin is holding above the 50week moving average. Every time, every prior bull market, every prior bull market for Bitcoin, when you had two weekly closes below the 50we moving average, the cycle was over, right? The cycle, that was it for the cycle. So that's what I'm looking for. If you get a weekly close, two weekly closes, right now it's about 102K. So about $10,000 lower than where we currently are. Weekly closes below that, I think you just have to cut your losses and say, "All right, well, the cycle's over. Too bad, you know, too bad. That's all we got." As long as we stay above as long as we stay above the 50we moving average, uh, then there's still is reason to be to be optimistic. The good thing for us this cycle is that a lot of times, you know, the 50week moving average is pretty far down from the all-time high, but right now it's only $10,000 below where we currently are, right? Like so if in a worst-case scenario um where the cycle's already over, there should be confirmation of it at not too much of a lower price theoretically allowing people to kind of get out and salvage as much as you know, salvage as much as their portfolio as they can because I do think I do think the top will be in the fourth quarter, okay? You know, and I think that next year will be a bare market and that is, you know, that is something I've I've, you know, continue to be somewhat deterministic about. Top is this quarter, next year's a bare market. Um, if you want to hold anything in the bare market in crypto besides stables, right, it should be Bitcoin. I would certainly get out of altcoins for 2026. If it if it plays out like the 2017 cycle, then you might see altcoins run into really early 2026, like the first week or two. But I I would not, you know, I certainly would not be holding altcoins, you know, March of 2026 because usually by that point in the cycle, they're doing nothing but but getting wrecked. So, what I'm looking for, I'm looking for Ethereum to show strength to rally to an all-time high and for for a rotation out of altcoins back into Bitcoin, right? Right. So you can have Bitcoin and Ethereum kind of going up simultaneously, kind of like the blue chips, right? And and then the other sort of the other aspects of the market will likely continue to lag until Ethereum can can hold 5K.

>> Okay. I have some questions about the lengthening cycle. I want to save that for later. But just to summarize on Bitcoin before we move on to ETH, you're saying that you are expecting a new high from Bitcoin. You're saying that if we get confirmation below this this 50WE this around 100K, that would be your call for a bare market with no alt season, but you're not expecting that. Um, so I think that's that's that's helpful context on on framing your thoughts on Bitcoin. Let's move now to to Ethereum. Um, Ethereum dropped about 30% during this flash crash. You posted a video about this saying that now that it's sufficiently wrecked, it can go to a new all-time high. Walk us through your outlook now for for Ethereum in Q4. What path are you expecting it to follow?

>> Yeah, I think I like I drew out a path a long time ago, but essentially, you know, we get these 30% drops or so like to the to the bull mark in in September, October of post trading years. Um, and then what typically follows after that is the final rally into the market cycle top. So, that's what I'm expecting. I'm I'm just kind of expecting a final rally into the market cycle top for Ethereum where it holds support at the bull market support band. I think I could be wrong, but I think that the low for Ethereum here is already in. Like that doesn't mean it can't like have some like residual drops where it, you know, find support here at the 21week EMA. Like if you go back to the 2017 cycle, you can see that's kind of what happened in the month of October, right? Ethereum had had this drop back down and then it just kind of stayed there throughout throughout the rest of October and it didn't really start moving until like mid November. Um, so and again, while Ethereum was going sideways, Bitcoin was actually going to all-time highs during that time. And then that was how Bitcoin dominance was able to go up is because Bitcoin was skyrocketing and everything else was just going sideways um and not really moving a whole lot. So I think that, you know, if this defensive rotation persists and we can get it on a Bitcoin rally, there's a really good chance that the altcoin market will not immediately follow because think about how many people just got wrecked in altcoins, right? There's going to be a lot of a lot of people that are going to be a little nervous to throw a lot of money at alts when they're worried they're just going to get wiped out again. Um, so when that happens, you get these defensive rotations. And that's why I'm saying now, like I think Ethereum is going to go to all-time highs. I do. Uh, I will, you know, I'll be the first to let people know if I think I'm wrong on that. Um, but I think it will. I think that, you know, right now it's going through this process of trying to confirm this level as support, you know, kind of like it did in 2021, right? Like right here, you can see there's a couple wicks down uh in September of of that year, maybe even into early October and then again, same thing in 2017 where you had it holding support even into early November. So base case for me is that Ethereum will go to all-time highs, but you know, at the same time, there's a a really high chance that it's going to lag Bitcoin for a few more weeks.

>> Gotcha. Um, so you you've spoken about this 5K price level um for for Ethereum as being the sort of line in the sand that you want to see it hold for alt season to to come and to to really get that movement. Why is this the key price level for Ethereum? And why is this the key price level for the altcoin market? Is it just because it's a new all-time high for ETH or or is there some other reason in the charts that you're seeing that 5K is so important?

>> Yeah, I mean, I Well, if you if all Bitcoin pairs were to go, you know, were to stay down here at the range lows on a Bitcoin dump and not a Bitcoin rally, then you're not going to get an alt season, right? Like in 2019 when all Bitcoin pairs went to the range lows, you did not get an alt season after it, but was because it was happening on a Bitcoin dump, not a Bitcoin rally. So in order to have an alt season, you have to have a Bitcoin rally first where dominance goes to all-time highs. But because we cannot know for a fact that it's a Bitcoin rally that it happens and not a Bitcoin dump, the the best thing to hold is still Bitcoin right now. Because if it's a Bitcoin rally, you're going to outperform alts like crazy. If it's a Bitcoin dump, like yeah, maybe Bitcoin dumps another 10% or something um in the short term in a, you know, if it goes to the 50we moving average, but altcoins in that scenario would probably drop like another 50% right? Kind of like they did uh last Friday. So I think like none of us can possibly know the ultimate outcome here for Bitcoin. I mean, obviously we all hope that it goes to an all-time high, like I don't I mean, who wants it to drop? Like I mean, I I would love for it to go to 140K, 150K, even higher, right? I mean, I Who doesn't want to get rich holding holding an asset like Bitcoin? Um, but the reason it makes it so easy not to hold altcoins is because the direction of the altcoin market after they were devalued against Bitcoin simply depends on Bitcoin USD's path from now until say like early November. If it's a dump, there's no alt season. If it's a rally, there could absolutely be an alt season. But again, the way you preserve the Satoshi valuation of your portfolio right now is to hold Bitcoin. The reason I say 5K for Ethereum is because that would reflect an all-time high, right? I mean, we need a 5K ETH for Ethereum to get at all-time highs. And a lot of these major moves in the markets before for like the quote unquote alt season typically happen after Ethereum goes to all-time highs, not before. So, you could argue that one of the reasons altcoins have lagged so much this cycle is because I mean, Ethereum only just hit an all-time high back in August, right? But normally the August high is a local top that then leads to a local low in September or early October. So again, in order to get the rally to 5K, Bitcoin has to go up. In order to get all season, Ethereum has to go to 5K. So, when you back out that entire process, in order to have alt season, Bitcoin dominance has to first go up because it would imply Bitcoin going to an all-time high. So, I don't think it makes sense for people to sit around and root for Bitcoin dominance to go down. Right? If you want if you truly want an alt season, then the only way it's going to happen is if Bitcoin USD goes to an all-time high in the next couple of months and Bitcoin dominance goes up with it. If both of those things happen, then I will even come out here and say that you could have an alt season, right? And that's saying a lot because I I mean, for the last four years, I said it's not, you know, people are premature and that alts are going to keep going lower against Bitcoin. And they just did, right? On Friday, they put in a new low against Bitcoin. And again, once again, everyone's like, well, no, that's now the low and it can't go lower. But they've been saying it for four years. So again, when you back out everything, in order for people to get what they want, for alts to rally against Bitcoin, we first have to see liquidity return to the king. If long meetings and judgmental bankers are your thing, Nexo is probably not. Nexo is a premier wealth platform built for people who value their time and money. It's built for people who have idle cash lying around and want it to grow fast. Whether it's Bitcoin, Ethereum, or even Forex pegged assets like USDT or USDC, Nexo offers up to 14% annual interest and access to cryptobacked credit in under 24 hours. Your assets need a platform built for growth. Join Nexo. Why do people invest in real estate? Because it spits off cash flow. But I'm not here to manage rental properties. That's why I'm looking at Figure Markets. Their new democratized prime product backs your money with real cash flowing assets and returns up to 9% APY. It's the first real world asset for lend pool built for everyone, not just institutions. Ready to lend like a bank and get more than the 5% A is offering you? Download the Figure Markets app today and get 9% on your idol funds. Go to milkroad.com/figurearkets.

I I think all anybody wants is for you to say, "Okay, we can have an alt season." Um, there was somebody I saw on Twitter who said that like the way that you've called this right for so long has just totally blown his mind. Um, okay. I want to kind of like pull some of these things together here. So, you're you're calling for a defensive rotation. You're calling for Bitcoin dominance to go higher. As Bitcoin USD goes higher, then you're saying following that, you're expecting Ethereum to build to a new all-time high. Um, you've also said that you expect all this to happen in Q4. We're we're waiting into Q4 here. Um, it doesn't seem like there's a lot of time for this to happen for one of these confirmations to come one way or the other. What is your time frame on expecting this to play out? Like is this like uh by the end of this month? Is it by end of December? Like or do you are you kind of agnostic on that? Like what kind kind of time frame are you expecting on all of this?

>> Well, as I've said for years, in the 2017 cycle, all Bitcoin pairs hit this wick right here in early November, right? They went to 0.25 in early November, which is still three weeks from now, and still they rallied to 1.34 in the ma in the matter of a month, like in the matter of a couple of months. The the alt season, when it happens, it happens so quickly that you don't even really have time to think about it, right? Like it's not what what people remember from 2021 where alts like rally against Bitcoin and they keep rallying against Bitcoin for months and months and months and months. That was a special case where we had all this money printing and interest rates were at zero and it kind of allowed for a longer alt season back then. But if you were around in 2017, like Bitcoin was the main thing to hold except for very small times during the cycle. But again, you can have a big rally by all Bitcoin pairs that starts in early November. In fact, if you look at the last two years, when did these rallies occur, right? The rally that started that that ended there and there. So, the first rally that ended here in December 2023, it started in early December, but the first low was like early November, right? So, early early November and early December. Look at 2017, it was early November, and then this wick was early December. Look at at at last year. When did when did the the rally start? It happened in early November. So my time my time frame on this stuff is if you're going to see alts start to rally against Bitcoin, it's probably going to start in early November, but you could still have another wick down as late as early December, right? So you could have a wick down to, you know, 0.27 27 for alt Bitcoin pairs, even even six weeks from now, and you could still end up getting an alt season as you can see in the last cycle. I think Bitcoin will top out in Q4. There's always a chance that the altcoin market goes a little bit higher into early 2026, like January, like early to mid January, because that's actually what happened in the 2017 2018 cycle is that all Bitcoin pairs actually topped like that first week of January, right? Um, so that's how I would look at this. It's a timing thing. But here's the thing. If it's early November, if it's three weeks from now, or especially early December, and Bitcoin is still not at an all-time high, then you're not going to get an alt season, right? Like that's just there's no way to say it in a way that could be, you know, consoling to someone, right? The only way you're going to get it is if Bitcoin gets another rally to all-time highs. And I think that's like that's a tough pill to swallow. So again, if if people want an alt season, we have to see Bitcoin go to all-time highs first.

>> Okay, that's helpful framing. I just uh I wanted to hear you kind of spell that out for us. So I kind of have an idea of what dates to watch for and what might happen here in Q4. Um, one of your catchphrases that you've popularized is that narrative follows price. And just so our audience understands what what I understand this to mean is that whatever the price action is, people will find something in the headlines or some sort of narrative to sort of like backwards rationalize, oh, that's why the price did that. You've said you don't believe this is the case and that the price is really what is creating these narratives. Um, the this kind of begs the question to me, what in your mind are digital asset prices following? Is it just private market cycles? Is it global liquidity? What are these prices actually following if it's not narrative? It's not sentiment. If it's what is it in your mind? What do you think it's following?

>> For whatever reason, there's this like cyclical behavior uh with humanity, right, with humans. Um, and a lot of people chalk up Bitcoin's four-year cycle that we can observe like all the major lows are about four years apart. They chalk it up to the having. But the reality is the four-year cycle has existed long before Bitcoin has been around. I don't know exactly what it follows. There's evidence to suggest that it follows the liquidity cycles, which I could somewhat get on board with. There's also evidence to suggest it follows the presidential cycles. You know, when a president gets elected, um, in that first year after the election, markets typically do well, but then the year after, the midterm year, they don't do as well. And maybe it's because whoever's in power, that's like the best year to allow for the markets to reset because you're not, you know, you don't have to worry about you getting reelected because it's the midterm year, right? You still have a couple more years after that. So, you don't have to worry. And it also if if the markets drop in the midterm year, it then allows the markets to build up in the pre-election year and the election year to make the incumbent look good. So, it's like that's the year to let the markets drop if you're going to let them drop. If the markets drop the minute a new president takes office, that also doesn't really look that great. And that has happened before. It happened a lot in the 1970s. But if you look at at, you know, Bitcoin first, you'll notice that all these major lows are about four years apart, right? You have, you know, right here, 2014, 2018, and 2022, plus or minus a month, right? But they're about they're approximately, you know, four years apart. This is not unique to Bitcoin. Look at the S&P 500. So if you look, let's change this to a monthly time frame. If you look at the S&P 500 and you go back to like the 1960s, 1970s, these major lows are all four years apart, right? You have 1982, you have 1978, 1974, 1970, 1966, 1962, right? 1958. They're all four years apart, right? Like they're all

>> I'm noticing a pattern,

>> right? Now, eventually something changes, right? Eventually something changes and you might have a a low that doesn't occur when it normally does because we didn't get a low in 1986. We ended up getting it in 1987. So, at some point in the future for Bitcoin, the four-year cycle will break. Like, it will because it's not like I don't think we can sit here and say that for the next hundred years, it's always going to play out the exact same way. At some point there will be an economic crisis, you know, like with a pandemic, but with a pandemic, we just kind of printed our problems away immediately. At some point there's going to be a crisis where the four-year cycle will break. But my argument is why like I would say if it's not broken yet, let's not try to fix it. In the 1960s, in the 1950s, all the way out until the early early 1980s, you would have just been better off assuming this time was not different, right? You would have just been better off assuming it's not different. And eventually eventually, you would have in 1986, you would have been like, "Okay, there's going to be a bare market." And then you would have been wrong, but then a year later, it still ended up dropping below that level. Anyways, so I think the argument here for me is that the 4-year cycle exists outside of Bitcoin because you can see it in the charts. At some point, it will likely break. But until that point happens, why not just trade what continues to play out and then that way you don't get wrecked for years and years and years and years only to finally be proven right after like two decades, right? You can just say, "All right, I'm going to have a plan." But that doesn't mean you go sell all your Bitcoin at the end of every posth having year either. I never do that, you know, because I also recognize that there's always chance that this is a cycle that it breaks. So what I say, what I always say in the midterm years is get rid of your altcoins, right? Get rid of all your altcoins and and um, whatever you want to sell in a parabolic rally by Bitcoin in Q4, the posting year, you can sell, but then keep the hodle stack in case in case we're wrong, right? In case four year cycle breaks because if you're wrong, you're going to want to be holding something and Bitcoin leads the bull market, right? So, dominance would probably go higher. So, it makes sense to hold some Bitcoin. If you're right about it being a bare market, then at least you're holding the thing that will drop a lot less than everything else in crypto, right? Like, if Bitcoin drops 70% next year, the altcoin market's going to get annihilated, you know? So, and also Bitcoin will be like the first thing, one of the first things to return to all-time highs in the next cycle. So, that's how I think you navigate it. I think you say, you know what, let's assume this time's not different. Let's assume it's going to play out like it always has. That means Bitcoin tops in Q4, the post having year. And that means that it makes sense to get completely out of the altcoin market in, you know, no later than mid January of 2026. As far as what drives the four-year cycle, it might be liquidity. It could be the presidential election cycle. I don't really think it's the having because you can see the four-year cycle exists before Bitcoin. Maybe it's just human emotions. I don't really know. Um, but I will say narrative does not lead the price and and there's really great examples of that. Think back to Ethereum. You talk you asked me about Ethereum, right? Um, you know how this year it feels like the narrative has changed for it like ever since April when it went to its regression ban. It feels like everything changed and like all of a sudden it has the power, you know, to go to these new all-time highs. But remember, it didn't have that ability until it went to its regression band that it always returns to before it goes to all-time highs. So, if you remember back in 2024 when we had the ETF for Ethereum, right, the spot ETF launched, everyone back then told me why I was going to be wrong about the ETH Bitcoin continued devaluation because the Ethereum ETF, but Ethereum topped on the ETF release, right? And then it just dropped for for basically the next year. That's a great example of of a narrative that had price continued to go up when the ETF was launched, everyone would have chocked it up to the ETF launching, just like that's what happened with Bitcoin. But because price did not continue to go up, that narrative quickly died and no one talked about it anymore because the price wasn't going up. So again, the price leads the narrative, not the other way around. And because the price of Ethereum started going down after the ETF instead of up, then people started talking more about monetary policy and why we need lower interest rates to allow this stuff to go up. But beforehand, they didn't care about that. It was all about, oh, it's an ETF, therefore the price is going to go up.

>> Gotcha. Yeah, I think that's a really helpful perspective on narrative, on price, and just a good insight to how you think about these things. Um, but you know, just like you said, like there's something going on that's exogenous to crypto that's driving these cycles. Um, and you're not exactly sure what. Um, so I want to get some thoughts on this because this this idea, this thesis of the lengthening cycle, um, has has been coming up and and gaining some traction. And I want to hear what you think about this. I did an interview on this podcast uh, with Jamie Coots, who's the chief digital asset analyst at Realvision. And Realvision recently has been talking about, and I also have done an interview with Michael How, who's known as like the godfather of global liquidity. But there's a lot of people um in the camp of liquidity analysts who are saying that the thing that's actually driving these cycles in and out of digital assets as we've said has been um the global liquidity uh uh I guess refin debt refinancing cycle that started after the treaty of Versailles in 1918 but that's a whole different road to go down. I I think what I want to ask here is not whether or not you believe in this, but like you know like you've been saying like you want to see a confirmation that we've rolled over into a bare market. If that thesis on liquidity cycles lengthening, extending into 2026 and therefore an extended cycle theory does seem to play out, how far are you willing to like skate out on the ice or wait until you see that confirmation? Are you just going to keep riding the market higher as long as it keeps going? And if liquidity is what's driving it and liquidity goes higher and drives it higher, are you just going to keep riding? Like how are you thinking about that?

>> Like for me right now, it's a timing thing. Like a lot of the peak indicators for Bitcoin haven't actually gone off yet. Um, because Bitcoin hasn't really had like a parabolic rally like it normally does. So, I think like if if we're sitting here in mid-December and Bitcoin is at like 190K or something ridiculous that no one's really thinking is possible right now, like if it's if it's sitting at a much higher price, it'd be way easier to go into 2026 and be like, "Yeah, it's going to be a bare market, right?" Because like a 70% draw down from, you know, like 160K or something or 180K sounds a lot better than a than a 70% draw down from the current price, right? Because like you know, just that draw down, it would take you basically a 50% drop just to get back to the current price. So part of it kind of depends on what happens between now and and December. If prices go parabolic between now and then, I will be more way more deterministic about next year being a bare market. Right? If Bitcoin dominance is crashing in December, I will absolutely be deterministic about next year being a bare market because most bare markets happen from low Bitcoin dominance levels. Um, there is an example in 2019 where we saw Bitcoin dominance start to drop from a high or we saw Bitcoin drop from a high Bitcoin dominance level. So it's not like that's impossible. That kind of stuff can happen, but it doesn't normally happen, you know, at the end of post election years. So I would say a lot of it's going to depend on price. If we're sitting here in mid-2025 or sorry, mid-December, mid-December and Bitcoin's at the same price, that's going to be tough, right? That's going to be tough because it's going to be like, well, you know, how do we how do we reconcile all these top indicators, but also what we know as the end of the four-year cycle. So if I would say if if we're sitting here in December, exactly two months from now, because it would be about exactly two months from now when Bitcoin topped in the 2017 cycle, right? It was like mid-December. It would actually line up potentially with the last rate cut we might get this year. Um, so that there's a narrative there, right? There's a narrative there. There's the rate cuts and whatnot. Um, if we're sitting here in mid-December and price is a lot higher, I will absolutely be deterministic about it and I will go into 2026 preaching it's a bare market. You know, if we're at the same price as today, I will I will probably still be kind of thinking it's a bare market, but I might not be as deterministic about it. Like, I might be willing to hold more of my Bitcoin stack in case I'm wrong. Um, if Bitcoin were to put in a new all-time high at any point in 2026, I have to, you know, I have to think about, all right, well, maybe maybe this time is different. But for me, when I look at every prior cycle and see every prior top for Bitcoin was in Q4 of the post having year, I feel like it's at least it's foolish to think that it can't top in this quarter again. Even though everyone knows like that's when it always tops and and and now we're talking about like the five-year cycle, but to some degree, I mean, the five-year cycle just seems a way to sort of repackage the super cycle nar, you know, the super cycle stuff. And every single time uh the super cycle stuff happens, it ends up not actually playing out. Um, in a prior cycle, I thought there was some merit to an extended cycle, right? Like last cycle, I thought it was possible to have it, but then in early 2022 when we had confirmation that the bare market was starting in January, I had to put out a video and just say no, like it it's going to be a bare market. I and and you know, it's foolish to hold altcoins. I mean, I put out a video I think in January or February just basically saying, and this was when Bitcoin dominance was at like 38% or 39%. I just said, look guys, I know everyone wanted more, but it's time to bite the bullet and you know, either go to cash because cash is king or go to Bitcoin, just get out of all the altcoins. And it was a tough video to make because I wanted things to go higher too, but it was kind of just the recognition of of maybe maybe it's not. So I think if if you go into this with an open mind, um, we can maybe revisit in in mid-December, see where prices see where the price is and then make a determination.

>> This is really helpful. I I hope our audience is appreciating this because I certainly am. I think there's a lot of broad agree agreement between us on some of these things. Um, like here at Milkroad, we're we're calling for ETH to get to 5K and go beyond that. So are you. Um, and I think that without a blowoff top in Q4, I personally am am kind of leaning towards this lengthening cycle theory. Um, for a lot of reasons, you know, from the macro side and other reasons, but um, yeah, I also agree with that, too. Like if I wake up and I see Bitcoin at 200K, I'm going to be like, "All right, that's, you know, take Exactly."

>> Right. Like how long would you hold on to the narrative if price exceeds your expectations?

>> Exactly. Um, so yeah, really helpful in a lot of ways here. I I want to ask a question about this idea that you've put forward of the Satoshi valuation of investors portfolios and telling people to think about their their returns and their their investments in digital assets in those terms because I think that's really helpful and and just like a perspective shift that I think would benefit the audience. How are you planning to apply this this thesis of Satoshi valuation of your portfolio and defending the Satoshi valuation of your portfolio during a bare market? Do you take profits all into Bitcoin? Do you take it into stables? Do you go into other other markets? What are you planning to do to protect your capital at some point after the the cycle's end ending and we get into a bare market? What's your strategy or thoughts on that?

>> Yeah, I mean, it's a good question. Normally, whatever you want in crypto, you just put it in Bitcoin. Um, I don't even hold stable coins in bare markets. I just put it in in good old US dollars, not even stable coins, because I mean, look at what happened last bare market. USDC temporarily lost its peg. US went to zero, right? So, I don't I don't necessarily want to trust a lot of my, you know, just capital in stable coins that can sometimes be deped. And, you know, back then, the main one that I used was USDC. And back in January, I I told people, I'm like,

"Look, guys, I'm getting rid of all my stables because I don't know what's going to happen, right? Like, there's a lot of, you know, the market's really fragile right now. I don't know."

And I'm really glad I didn't hold it in stables because when USDC temporarily lost its peg, um, I mean, it's easy to look back at it now and be like, "All right, it's fine." But, you know, imagine if someone had a lot of money in something like USDC and they thought it was stable, and then all of a sudden they wake up and it's down 10%. Right? Like, there would have been a lot of people that probably panic sold because they just saw what happened to us, right? Like the Luna back stable coin. They just saw what happened to us. So why not assume that it could happen to other stable coins?

So, what I would say in the midterm years, if it is a bare market, then the way you kind of protect yourself is you hold Bitcoin over anything else in crypto. Um, cash is king in, at least with respect to crypto. Stocks are kind of hit or miss in midterm years. Sometimes they do, sometimes they're flat to slightly up, and then sometimes they're down a lot. There's not a lot of midterm years where stocks go up a lot, but every midterm year, stocks outperform crypto, right?

So, let me show you a couple examples. If you look at the S&P divided by total market cap, right? The S&P divided by the total market cap, and you look at 12-month candles. Um, let me zoom in here because crypto just completely outperforms the S&P. Um, yeah, if you look at, yeah, but look at 2022. Like the S&P went up 132% against the crypto market. In 2018, the S&P went up 330% against the crypto market. So, I would say a low expense ratio index fund in 2026 is a lot better than holding a basket of altcoins. Okay.

If you look at, um, gold divide, let me do, let me do total market cap divided by gold. If you do that, you'll see that total market cap in 2018 dropped 78% against gold. In 2022, it dropped 65% against gold. It's actually down right now this year, but only about 24%. My argument is that next year, total market cap likely will drop against gold as well. And maybe it even ends this year green if we can get another rally before the year is over, even though it's red right now. Um, so I, I would say that gold is a better hold than crypto in midterm years. The S&P is a better hold than crypto in midterm years.

By the way, every other year of the cycle tends to be the opposite, right? Like, you know, the pre-halving year, the halving year, and the post-halving year, Bitcoin and crypto tend to do better than gold and index funds. But the midterm year is that one pesky year, right, where crypto just gets annihilated, right? So, I would say the S&P is better, gold's better, you know, commodities in general are probably going to be better, cash is probably better. Just anything besides altcoins, um, is is probably going to be the way to go. Um, again, if if your view about the extended cycle is correct, then that means that altcoins could do well, uh, next year. But I, I mean, I think we'd have to revisit that in December to see what Bitcoin is doing at that point.

>> Yeah. And this is, I think, just a great time for investors to pay attention for that reason, and that's what I want to conclude with. So, I appreciate the thoughts on that and the the perspective against other markets and how to think about in a bare market. I actually get bullish on dollars and the DXY during a bare market. So, I'm kind of okay with that. But, you know, there's other opportunities in the market. So, it's just good for people to think about. Um, I want to end with, um, we're coming up on time here. You have been technically correct on most of your predictions for several years now, in ways that have kind of, you know, kind of spooked and and really startled a lot of people. Um, but you've also said that at some point the market's going to humble you and you're going to get something wrong. So, I want to kind of ask a twofold question, like, you know, we've talked about a lot of things that you're expecting, this defensive rotation, increase in Bitcoin dominance, um, and several other things that you're watching for, ETH to 5K, so forth. What is the most important thing that you're watching for in Q4? And, uh, what are you, I guess, most concerned about that you might be getting wrong? And, and what would you see as like the confirmation of that?

>> I think one of the things, there, there, there's two things I'm worried about. One of which, um, like MicroStrategy has done incredibly well this entire cycle, right? Like, I mean, holding MicroStrategy was was great. People made a lot of money. Um, it has not confirmed any of these all-time highs, right? Like, it put in an all-time high, what, like late last year or something, and maybe early this year, I don't really remember, but it hasn't really been able to confirm that that move that Bitcoin has gotten. And so, I'm a little worried, like, if, if MicroStrategy doesn't start performing soon, that could become a real drag for Bitcoin, you know? Um, and actually, if, if Bitcoin does go up, um, into the end of the year, and MicroStrategy goes down, which is not what I hope. I mean, I genuinely hope that that MicroStrategy goes up. I mean, MicroStrategy going up means that, you know, businesses like anything in crypto like yours and mine continue to do well, right? So, it doesn't make sense to root against them. I'm rooting for them, but I also, that's kind of like one thing I, I sometimes worry about because it hasn't really moved higher in the same way that Bitcoin has. The counterpoint is that MicroStrategy did so amazingly well early in the cycle that you could argue it just kind of pulled forward a lot of its gains because it still outperformed Bitcoin, even though it hasn't confirmed, you know, fresh all-time highs itself. So, I guess that's one thing. But I will say this, I'm not that concerned about MicroStrategy because MicroStrategy already survived a bare market, right? They already survived 2022. I'm probably more so worried about like all these new treasury companies that are FOMOing in like, like really late in the cycle. You know, like a lot of these treasury companies getting in now where their cost basis is like well above 100K, whereas Mike, you know, Sailor has a lot more flexibility. You know, the prices could drop and he's still fine. Um, so, I, I sometimes worry about that. The only other thing is is the macro data. Um, but I mean, right now we're not even getting that release. So, um, I guess you can't, you can't have an economy that sucks if you're not releasing the data. Um, so maybe that's the other thing, but even then, I mean, that stuff moves so slowly. Um, like you can kind of see it all coming from a mile away, but it doesn't mean it's not, it doesn't mean it can't continue to slowly go in the wrong direction for the next like two to three years before the roo, maybe the rooster finally comes home to roost. Um, so those are probably the two main things that I'm looking at. But again, the macro data continues to look fine. Layoffs are low, initial claims are low, inflation still looks okay. We're going to be getting rate cuts again in November and December. And normally when the Fed cuts for, like, a risk management strategy rather than a reactive strategy, it's bullish for, for, for risk assets. So, I'm not, I'm not overly concerned about that right now. Um, I'm just, you know, if you, if you, if you really do subscribe to the view of, of, um, narrative follows price and not the other way around, you know, I keep wondering like, what, like, what is the narrative for why MicroStrategy is not going to, you know, why is it not hitting, um, all-time highs? I don't even know how far down it is. Uh, but I, I do think it, it hasn't. Let me just look really quick. I don't, I don't think I'm sharing my screen now, but let me just give you a number so I can, I can tell people. It looks like MicroStrategy hit an all-time high back in November of 2024, and it's currently sitting about 43% down from the all-time high. Um, so, by the way, I mean, if, if you want a narrative to support an alt season, um, which is what people want, right? One narrative, one narrative could simply be, I mean, I don't think you need a narrative, but one narrative could be that if MicroStrategy is not able to keep pace with Bitcoin, uh, for a few more months, if it starts to drag, that could be a drag against Bitcoin. You know, if, if you have this company that has all this Bitcoin in it, but it can't continue to to go higher with Bitcoin. The thing is is a lot of other, everything else in crypto doesn't really have that problem, you know? I mean, obviously there's some companies now accumulating Ethereum and, but like, it's not like you have all these, you know, treasury companies that are accumulating altcoins in the same way they're accumulating Bitcoin. So, if that ever becomes a problem, right? If, if the thing that was bullish at one point becomes a bearish thing, then it could cause people to rotate out of Bitcoin and into other things. Um, just to, to something that doesn't necessarily have the concern that you're going to have these entities that are holding, you know, billions of dollars worth of the asset potentially having to come to the uncomfortable decision that they might have to actually sell some. Again, I don't think Sailor's going to do that, but I'm more so worried about all the all the copycats, right? I mean, I feel like Sailor was one of the few guys that stuck around in the bare market and and kept buying despite everyone laughing at him. Um, so, I'm not concerned about him. I'm, I'm, I'm more so concerned about everyone else. I mean, if the top for strategy for MicroStrategy is already in, uh, then there still is a decent chance they could survive the 2026 bare market, right? They already survived the one in 2022. Um, when FTX collapsed, you know, um, maybe hopefully they can survive, survive another one, but I don't know that I don't know if everyone else would.

>> Yeah. Well, I think there's, there's a lot to that. Um, I hadn't really heard you talk about MicroStrategy so much before, so I'm interested on those thoughts. I'll have to look into that more. Um, I'll say for myself, I'm, what I'm hoping you're wrong about is the lengthening cycle theory, and I'm really hoping that at some point I get a video from you in 2026 saying, "Okay, alt season." Um, but I think we're going to have to leave it there for today. Uh, look, Ben, this has been really helpful. I know that all year you've been kind of frustrated and been dealing with people calling for alt season prematurely, trying to share your analysis and and kind of getting rebuked for it, but I hope you feel a little bit like, um, appreciated, respected by the community because I think your, your channel's grown and so I just want to encourage you personally on that. Um, and just say I've appreciated it. I've been following you, I think since, I don't think I've missed a video since like 2020. Um, so yeah, just, I want to encourage you to keep going. Don't get dragged into, you know, negativity or Twitter beef. Just keep doing what you're doing because we all appreciate it a lot. Uh, and where can we send people to find more of you and your work online?

>> Yeah, my website's into the cryptoverse.com and then I have a YouTube channel. That's just my name, Benjamin Cowan. Uh, on Twitter, into cryptoverse. But I will warn everyone, Twitter Ben is very different from YouTube Ben.

>> >> Amen.

>> >> They're very different people.

>> >> Yep, they are very different people. There's, there's a lot of fun. I, I enjoyed your, your fight with the Litecoin account. That was really hilarious. So,

>> >> if you're not following Ben on Twitter, you're missing out. Uh, okay. Well, we'll wrap it there. Ben, thanks so much for being here. I really appreciate what you shared with us today, and I hope we can have you back again soon.

>> Sounds good. Thanks for having me.

>> Absolutely. And thank you all for joining us. Uh, stay bullish, stay educated, stay safe, don't use leverage, and we will see you all on the next episode of the Milk Road Show. Thanks for being here, everyone. Bye. We're sending Kyle Reedhead, our head of research, to the UK's largest Web3 summit. I'm talking about Zebu Live happening October 21st and 22nd in London. Want to join? Use our code milk to get 20% off your tickets. Hit the link in the show notes and say hi to Kyle for us. Want insights on what's moving crypto markets and how we're trading each event? Subscribe to our channel and join the Milk Road Daily and Pro Newsletters and start investing like the top 1%. This show is for educational purposes only. Nothing we say is financial advice. Investing is risky. Never invest more than you can afford to lose.