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What can be the catalysts for a strong stock market crash? What are U.S. retail investors investing in? It could indeed be a catalyst for strong declines in the SP500. [music] What can be the catalysts for a deep stock market crash? You know that during the past week there has been a lot of talk about inflation. We have seen how the Federal Reserve system, with its new chairman, says it will focus on fighting inflation. But I would like you to look at this graph. This is a graph we are very familiar with, and it represents the evolution of average inflation expectations for the next 5 years. And look at what happened last week. Do you see the sharp drop it experienced from the 270 area to the 227 area? Just at a time when the new chairman of the Federal Reserve system says that inflation must be fought. Well, what does this graph tell us? Well, this graph is telling us that while in the short term inflation realized is around 4%, by the end of the year it will be at least 3.5% and at least in the 3% area. However, we have found that Kevin Ws, despite saying that his fundamental objective will be to fight inflation, has not increased federal funds interest rates at this meeting. Why? That is the question to answer. In the opinion of the OPLA team, he has not done so because he is seeing the same thing we are. He is seeing that inflation expectations from now until the end of the next, average inflation expectations for the next 5 years are very anchored and have fallen significantly because, logically, they are discounting a fall in inflation. Why? Because sooner or later the transit of oil through the Strait of Hormuz will normalize. And he says, let's wait and see what happens. Well, what conclusion do we reach? Well, the conclusion the OPLA team reaches is that regardless of Kevin WS's words, what we see is that inflationary pressures are contained and will decrease throughout next year. What are U.S. retail investors investing in? Well, fundamentally, as you can see, they are buying semiconductor ETFs for a very simple reason: because semiconductors are the ones that show a strong upward trend, and people go and say, well, these are the ones with the strongest upward trend, so I'll buy. This year has made it crystal clear that the memory component is essential for the latest artificial intelligence technology, both for training new versions of these models and for using them in the most useful and efficient way possible. In the United States, there is an ETF with the ticker DRAM from Roundhill that only exposes itself to companies whose revenue comes fundamentally from this semiconductor subsector, the subsector dedicated to memory. And in Europe, very recently, in June 2026, an ETF that aims to replicate it has been launched, which has the same ticker RAM and is managed by Hans and Defiance. However, what is the problem? That to comply with UITS rules, the European ETF cannot replicate the main components of the American ETF in the same proportion. In fact, they represent almost half. So today, to try to solve this problem, we are going to design our own ETF, our own memory ETF, which we will call best 2 + 2. Why? Because we will only use two ETFs and two stocks. First of all, how will we know if we have done a good job with our Best 2 + 2 ETF? Well, we will look at three metrics. The first, the similarity of components between the American DRAM and our ETF, both with the elements that appear and do not appear, and their proportions. The second, the return, which we will try to make as similar as possible. And finally, the costs, which we will try to see if we can reduce. To design our ETFB 2 + 2, we will use Freedom 24. In this case, we use Freedom 24 because the platform has a wide variety of both ETFs and stocks that we will need, both European, American, and international. Furthermore, in this case, since we will be using more than one element when investing, Freedom 24 with its tools is very useful to us because it is more sophisticated than other brokers and platforms that are simply more for hobby investors. So we will create our list on Freedom 24, which we will call de RAM, and we will add the elements that will serve to replicate the American ETF. The main components of the American DRAM ETF are Micron and Samsung. And this was the main problem we had with the UITS ETF, that its concentrations were not sufficient. So we will expand these two stocks, Micron and Samsung. In the case of Micron, we have to invest in dollars, but it's not a problem because on Freedom 24 you can perform currency exchange completely transparently and without problems. Furthermore, if you have any questions, you have a personalized manager, and from the app, you can even write to them, and they will attend to you in Spanish. Another important component of the American DRAM ETF is the Korean company SK Hynix. And to gain exposure to it, we will do so through the ETF that has exposure to the Korean economy in general. And this is the iShares ETF with the ticker CSKR. This ETF will help us with both exposure to SK Hynix and exposure to Samsung. And finally, we will use one of the ETFs we analyzed last week, the SMH from VanEck. Why? Because it also has good exposure to Micron. Now, with our four instruments, our two ETFs and our two stocks, what proportions? How do we combine them so that the components are most similar to RAM? Taking into account the proportions in which Samsung and Micron appear, both in the Korean ETF and the semiconductor ETF, we would have to include Micron shares representing approximately 28% of the total of our ETF and Samsung shares representing approximately 16% of the total, so that we would achieve exposure to Samsung of approximately 27%, which is what the American ETF has, and to Micron a little more, 30%, but this would compensate for the lack of exposure we have to other American memory stocks such as Sandis, Western Digital, or Seagate. Regarding the ETFs, to achieve the total exposure we would want to the main components Micron and Samsung, we would need 41% of the Korean ETF and 15% of the semiconductor ETF. With this, we would achieve a similarity of approximately 70% with the American DRAM ETF, looking at the components. But what compromises have we made? Well, first, the presence of SK Hynix is half that of the American ETF. Second, the company Kioxia does not appear in our replica. And finally, the iShares ETFs give us exposure to other companies that the American ETF does not have. For example, the Korea ETF also gives you exposure to the Korean financial sector, which reduces volatility, for better or for worse, because the drops are smaller, but the rises will also be smaller. And the semiconductor ETF gives us exposure to other American companies that, although they do not appear in the American DRAM ETF, have a strong correlation, such as Marvel, Broadcom, Nvidia, Intel [clears throat] have had a strong correlation and have also had a strong upward trend this past year. Now let's look at the costs, to see if we have managed to make it cheaper. To do this, we will go into the ETF documents. From Freedom 24, it is very simple because from the ETF, you just go to the document, and we can see that the cost of the Korean ETF is around 0.7% and the cost of the SMH ETF from VanEck is around 0.35%. So, with the proportions in which we have combined them, we get a TER of approximately 0.34-0.35%. Compared to the 0.65% of the American DRAM or the 0.69% of the European DRAM, we win here. And well, let's get to the most important thing, the return. It's very similar to the component similarity. In this graph, we can see how we would have achieved approximately 75% of the return that the American DRAM ETF has achieved, mainly due to that financial sector that the Korean ETF adds, which reduces our gains but also reduces our losses. So, if you want to replicate this design, our 2 + 2 ETF with two stocks and two ETFs, we leave you a link in the description so you can open an account on Freedom 24. What can be the catalysts for a strong stock market crash? Well, first of all, we will look at what retail investors are doing, okay? And what we are seeing is that the balance of loans to buy stocks in the United States is reaching historical highs. The pace of leverage is growing to historically high levels. We have found that in the year 2000, in the year 2007, in the year 2001, when this balance reached a maximum, the SP500 also did, and subsequently a downward trend began. The question we logically have to ask ourselves is, well, does this high balance, which is growing at such an accelerated pace, mark a ceiling for the SP500 and the beginning of a downward trend, as we saw in the 3 years I have told you about previously? What can be the other catalyst? The other catalyst is the stock market listing of SpaceX shares. As you can see in this graph, you will observe that in the short term it is moving sideways. You see that it is moving sideways between the 188 and 171 area. That is a sideways movement. In my opinion, that is not significant. The risk for the markets is when the lock-up period concludes and we see how paper begins to flow into the market. This paper coming from former SpaceX shareholders should put downward pressure on prices and, given the high weighting it will have in the index, could be one of the catalysts explaining a downward retracement.