Transcription
After harming the market, Trump is trying to reassure them by saying that the tariffs will not be as high as we think for China. As a result, the market is reacting quite well on an PO that we had identified, especially on the NASDAQ. We will take a quick look today at the S&P 500, the dollar, of course, gold, and I think we will take a quick look at silver if we have a little time. I remind you that for all those who want to train with us, it is possible, it is free, it is the first link in the pinned comment. It will take you to this small page. You just have to click right here. Join my free trading coaching. Scroll down, register on Primexbt via our partner link. It is our partner broker. It will allow you to trade Forex, indices, commodities with crypto collateral. Fill in your email, your Premix BT ID, it is located at the top right of the platform, there is a small profile logo, hover your mouse over it, copy your ID. Then, just make a deposit of at least 200 dollars in crypto or by bank card. This is your trading capital. You can withdraw your funds whenever you wish. Fill in your Discord username, check "I have made a deposit, get my access" and within 24 hours, you will receive access to the complete mentorship and also to the VIP. Index Forex right here, hop, which is right there with the trade reviews, our analyses, answers to your questions, etc., etc. So, to come here on the Nasdaq, on Friday, we triggered the low of the current week, which was Tuesday's low. Trump exactly here, I think 1 hour later or on the POI indicated that the tariffs will not be as high, that discussions are open, and so the market is reacting rather well and literally swallows the entire bearish movement of the week, or rather of Thursday. And so, this is what theoretically leads us towards the previous weekly high. An important level since, once again, we are still in the daily fair value gap. We will have to observe whether the price will come to recover this high or reverse. For me, the fact that the market came to take the stops of this candle, so of Thursday and Tuesday with this candle, for me the price has no interest in returning below this low. For me, this is now a low that must be protected. It came to purge liquidity. So I don't see why the market would return below this low. We can return to it, but what I mean is that if we return to it, it means the bias is bearish from my point of view, and that theoretically there will be a small tour below the previous weekly low, or rather, it's no longer the previous weekly low since there is a new weekly close, but we will have our October low and our last week's low, which, by the way, does not cover a weekly FVG, or rather, yes, a little bit. So I will leave it as Weekly FVG. Yes, it's true that it's not entirely closed, but for me, the market should not return below last week's low. And so, everything that comes back into the discount zone of this candle and this movement, these are buying zones from my point of view. That is to say, wait, I'll set the theme correctly. I still haven't set my theme in the right color. I will really make a theme for this theme. Well, it's not very French, but okay. Hop, there. The 1040 zone here. So, we either take the candle, so between 2473 and 24571, or we take the entire movement. We can afford to take the entire movement, but it's to say that normally this liquidity grab will initiate an upward continuation. Uh, I don't like to say normally, but it's a bit of the price reading we can have if we don't return below this low. And so here, we switch to hourly, and so we can do exactly the same thing. We take this liquidity grab, hop, we take our high, and we locate the discount zone. If the price, for example, returns to the discount zone in the FVG, it could potentially be a good long opportunity to continue upwards. It all depends on your OBA, once again. OK? Uh, honestly, given the reaction, I think we're set to try to purge the ATH personally. So it wouldn't surprise me if the Nasdaq, sorry, the Nasdaq goes to make a new ATH. Sorry, my voice faltered a bit. Uh, I don't see anything else to say. For me, the reaction is rather good. There was a stop hunt before initiating this movement, which is rather OK. And uh, yes, I think that the liquidity, or rather the previous weekly high and the high, now remain our objective concerning the SP 500. It's true that I haven't looked at the SP at all, but it's the same thing. Liquidity grab from the low of the current week. So we take Tuesday's low, we react very well. Exactly the same thing for me. Everything that returns to the discount zones of Friday's candle is a good zone. We can even add the median threshold of this wick if we want more precision. Hop. So it would really be around 6615 points to continue and put pressure on the previous weekly high and the ATH. So, we will note this here on our hourly chart. We have the ATH here, which is no longer the previous weekly high, but we will just write buy side liquidity. And this, we will write here previous high. Hop, since it's the objective, I'll just make this line a bit thinner. And so, in my opinion, this is the objective. And so, similarly, for me, everything that returns to the discount zone of this movement is rather buying zones. I don't know if we will return there. We see that for now, the price has already reworked this FVG a bit. We have also continued. We see that we have worked this FVG as well. So we see that we are continuing. Uh, so theoretically, if we follow the flow, well, apart from a stress, let's say at the US open. So, if we reprice the FVG, it could be a good zone to continue to deliver this buy side and the previous high. But I think we are heading towards these levels, and then we will see if there are signs of reversal or not. If there are none, we are heading towards a new ATH on the US indices. So, that will have to be observed. But frankly, this news from Trump, which reassures the market, is rather good. After all, we are not immune to a future bearish leg. The barometer would still indicate a turbulent October, to see if that will be the case or not. Uh, that will have to be observed since we still have the VIX, theoretically, which is a small threat here. So, has the VIX confirmed or not? No, not for now. We would still be in the monthly FVG. We haven't managed to close. So we have a small divergence. The VIX pushed, but the NASDAQ did not make new lows. And now, given the rejection we are experiencing and the close, well, that could indicate that the VIX rebound is potentially over. After all, again, we are very subject to this macro. This news tomorrow, Trump can say again, "Well, no, China doesn't want to negotiate, we're putting this tariff." Uh, well, there's news at any moment that can come out, that can stress the markets again. And that also explains this VIX, which is still quite high. There is a significant market stress. It will depend a lot on the economic news. To come to the dollar, the dollar is very interesting because it is still in this range phase here. And for me, there is nothing more to say. That is to say, we have filled this volume imbalance a bit. Yes, not really filled. We made a small wick in it. Yes. But, well, we remain in an upward trend for now. This movement is an upward trend. Or rather, the dynamic, I mean here, we can try to find an ascending low to deliver the price. Now, for me, it remains a range, that is to say, as long as it's a range, nothing will happen. Let the dollar index range. Q4 is not very directional for the moment. Uh, there is no major PO grab at the beginning of this Q4. So, for now, the direction is not clear, in fact, for the fourth quarter. For now, on the dollar, well, I have nothing more to say. A dollar that doesn't put upward pressure is good for risk assets for the moment. Uh, however, if we have a dollar that starts to put upward pressure, we will have to see what it triggers on risk assets. I'll quickly move on to silver before talking about gold, because for me, silver is very important. Uh, since we haven't made an ATH yet in adjusted contracts, it seems to be the delivery point here. So I think gold still has a little juice as long as silver hasn't made its ATH. It seems to be the direction of the price. After all, we are not obliged to go there, but for now, I don't see any reversal signals on silver for the moment. Well, there is still a red candle in the immediate imbalance. We could retrace a bit, why not? But, it's true that to reverse, well, in itself, we took a stop hunt, we took this buy side from here, so it's normal for me to have this rejection, I don't think we are at a definitive top. After all, I could be wrong, we'll see in the coming days. Technically, well, it's true that there is the break of the last bullish candle here, but well, it's not the ultimate signal either. If we start breaking these last two bullish candles, yes, it could trigger a bit of consolidation, but I think talking about a top before a major stop hunt is a bit early. So, since Silver may not have topped, we can say that on the gold side, perhaps we haven't topped yet. And so, for me, the daily FVG retests are interesting zones. We've already talked about it. We see that for now, it has triggered a small rebound. Will we clean out Friday's low before launching a bullish leg again? We'll have to see. Otherwise, of course, there are FVG to rework. We see here that we have a break gap. This FVG has already been worked, but nothing would prevent the price from coming to work this FVG, for example. So here, between 4111 and 4037 to try to seek continuation. Now, I'm telling you, we are closer to a top. We have reached our extension objectives, 5086.28. We have completely exploded the extensions of this consolidation. Uh, we have seen people buying in many countries, notably in Australia, in Thailand, people are queuing to buy gold. You know that people generally buy at the tops, especially retail. So we know we are in this top window. Now, is there still a little juice left, or is there a sort of distribution that will arrive, like consolidation, manipulation, and then an expansion that would mark the top? We'll have to see. But in any case, for the moment, from a price action point of view, we are still in something bullish. So yes, we could be at the beginning of a deeper retracement, particularly towards the FVG. But I mean, for now, it's too early to talk about a top. After all, it's clear that there has been an excess. It's clear that people are buying. It's clear that we are close to the top. It's hard to confirm it now. And well, if you're asking yourself, "Should I invest long-term in gold here?" Well, it's perhaps not a good location. Clearly not. Uh, here, you have to understand that this is not the case. Now, for swing and intraday bullish. So, we must always try to capture longs. After all, uh, we can retest slightly lower levels. We will try to break down the price a bit. We can see that for now, this low grab has not allowed us to make a new high. So, it remains to be observed. And if we break this FVG, we will retest the next one. And here, similarly, you take the last impulse, you take a discount zone. Well, we will focus more on this FVG, where we have interesting zones for potential continuation. I'll stop here for today. I hope you enjoyed it. If so, don't hesitate to smash the blue thumbs, subscribe, leave a little comment. Thank you very much to those who play along. I remind you of all the links in the description box for those who want to train for free. Don't hesitate. I'll stop here. We'll meet again tomorrow for another review or later for another video. Bye bye!