[ __ ] What is this thing? So, let's take the little YouTube Studio link, live stream content. Is the live stream there or not? Yes, it's there. Magnificent. Let's take the little thing. Ah, but what is this contraption? Copy the link. Let's go to Discord. Thursday Live. Thursday Live. Everyone, the. There, perfect. So, as usual, please, confirm to me that we are indeed, uh, live. Image, sound, everything is OK. Group 1, group 2, and and like that, we'll be able to, we'll be able to go gently but surely. OK, thanks. Hop! So, I'll put this here, like that, we're good. OK. Group 1, everything is good. Group 2, public group. No, not public group because there's no public live, the poor things. They're lost, they don't know what to do there. Uh, in any case, yeah, there will be some serious levels with Fredroidon in group 3. We'll have to moderate, we'll have to moderate one dead person every day. OK, sound HC. Thanks Liv, a big thank you to Liv BTB who, uh, is doing the new thumbnails. There, he's in charge of the new artistic direction. That way, I don't have to go get them from Bravos research anymore. So, we thank him. It's cool. It can add a personal touch, well, personal. Yeah, personal, personalized to the channel. So, it's cool, it's nice. What's more, it's funny because some members had sent me "But have you seen this channel, they're stealing your thumbnails." I said "No, no, it's me, it's me who's taking theirs, it's not the other way around." Yeah, for that, unfortunately, I have no artistic fiber, and when I used to try to make them, they were terrible, and it took me an hour to do them. So, I told myself, well, intellectual property, we change a few things, that's fine, and at least I'm not risking anything, and they're cool and they had a good CTR rate. The CTR rate is really, in short, for 1000, uh, 1000 times that YouTube shows your thumbnail in people's feeds, how many clicked on it? And they had a good CTR rate with, still, 10% on average. YouTube considers 7 to 10% to be already very good. And with these, we were around 10, 11, and since Liv did the latest ones, with the latest ones, we're around 13 to 15. So, bravo Liv BTB, you're doing better in terms of CTR than Bravo Schage. So, bravo. Yeah, thanks Romain. Thanks for the definition of CTR. Sound is meh. Yeah, but maybe it's on your end, Silex, because there's always one or two, it's not good, and for the rest, it's fine. So, anyway, we'll wait just 2 minutes for people to join comfortably, and we're off. Uh, frankly, sorry Silex, I've done everything on my end with the setup. The microphone is right in front of me without me being glued to it. The settings are the same as when people said it was better. So, uh, so there you go, thanks cogitur, all good. And we'll be off soon. Uh, well, maybe before we go, two things, two things especially, one. So, you are super nice, uh, some of you are writing to me, so you're always many writing to me, and I thank you, it's nice. I always like contact, no problem. Write to me if you want to write to me. I just can't necessarily reply directly within, let's say, within the hour or half-day, but I always try to reply. But know, know that if for maybe two weeks, three weeks, I've been a little withdrawn, uh, compared to the radio chat, compared to maybe my presence in the group channels and the general channel, it's just because I'm really finishing this training which is taking me a lot, a lot of time, and it's imperative that I finish it at the same time as the site opens its doors. So, I'm fully focused on it because there are, well, there are videos to shoot, which takes a lot of time, there's editing to do, even if I'm, even if I'm helped by a member whose profession it is, and I thank her, it's Desmenia, so I thank her for helping me with this work. Uh, but we're doing both. So, there are still a lot of videos. I'm doing it too, and it takes a lot of time, and that's why I'm a little withdrawn, so I can't wait to finish. Uh, skiz, you need to find a technician to do your mic setup. But actually, it's simple, I have a mic, the volume is all the way up, and it's right in front of me. So, I can't really do anything more for this. But really nothing at all, sorry, really nothing. And so, as I was saying, yeah, it's taking me time, and I can't wait to finish this to be back here and be fully with you because I love it, and so, yeah, and some are worried, saying "Ah, but Discord, the atmosphere right now, it's not, it's not great." We'll talk about that in a few moments too. Uh, and well, there are still a few who are afraid that little presence means mental fatigue, means he's going to give up. No, rest assured, not at all. It takes a lot, a lot, a lot more than that for me to give up, believe me. And so, so, yeah. Uh, well, no, I'm at my max. I'm sorry guys, I'm really at the max of the max. Uh, I don't know how to do it. Wait, maybe in here. No, not even. No, we're really, I'm really at 100%. Really at 100%. So, wait, I'll try to move the microphone closer, maybe. So, now it's really, really just glued to my mouth. So, if there's still no more sound, I don't know what else to do. There. If it's already a bit better, great. But otherwise, I really don't know what else to do, and it's also unpleasant for me because it's really stuck to my face. So, so, there. Wait, maybe we'll pull something. Wait, is it better now? Wait, I'll just check. Is it now? No, no, no, no. Wait, I'm fiddling with my thing. Uh, no, it doesn't change anything. No, it doesn't change anything. Yeah, I don't know. Sorry guys. Frankly, I don't know. I'll watch a tutorial once, but frankly, I don't know. I'll watch. I'll watch. Anyway, uh, so, so, so, so, so, don't worry, everything is fine, everything is fine. And also on the videos, it's perfect on my end. Yeah, yeah. Well, frankly, I don't know, I'll check that. Anyway, we won't talk about it for 3 hours, I'll check that. But to get back to what I was saying before, so, so, don't worry, everything is fine. It's just that I'm very busy with the training, and once it's finished, I'll be back to have fun with you, to troll you, to tell you lots of things, to chat with you because I love it. This allows us to connect this with what's happening on the, well, on Discord for now, I'd say a week or two, maybe even three. And so, so, yeah, I just removed it to read Demonia's messages who told me "Thanks for pinging him. With pleasure. Thanks to you for doing it for free." It's nice. Very nice, even. Anyway, so, yeah, what's happening on Discord right now, for me, it's relevant to one thing, and that's psychology. Psychology, which is a super important point, no matter how many videos we make about it in the training, no matter how many specific channels we set up for it on Discord. Psychology, guys, it's really everything. And psychology, I'll divide it into two points. First point, it's about what happened, wait, when did we have something? It was, yeah, a few days ago. Uh, you know that I'm the first, really the first to come down hard, and history shows it, to come down hard on those who, in Discord, well, I won't say brag, but say that they took leverage, that they didn't respect things, etc., etc., especially regarding leverage and portfolio allocations too. So, when, for example, someone says they had 80% of their bag in ATH, even though it wasn't the right allocation, but they say it because they're happy. We made a big profit on ATH, so they're all happy. That kind of thing. Normally, I'm the first to call them out. But with what happened last time, I think you saw, I didn't have the same discourse. I had a discourse where, well, it was more about calming things down a bit, etc., because there are really, there are really a lot of people who did anything and then paid for what happened on the market with messages I received that really, really broke my heart. So, so, I was the first to temper things a bit because it happens, well, there are two, well, there are different levels in Discord who are asking themselves. There are those who, at a minimum, respected all the allocations, who are currently in the negative. And so, well, yeah, it's annoying. It's annoying because, yeah, we'd like it to go up directly, but that's not the reality of things sometimes. So, that leads to frustration. Thanks Hello Wind for the questions. Nice. Uh, so, yeah, that's, let's say, level number one where we're most comfortable, and then there are the levels above where you go up, you go up, you go up until you reach the level of people who said "Well, Atre is good at what he does. He's guided us well from the beginning. So, I'll rely on that, and I'll take more risk, contradicting things I've always told you, like leverage, and it works better." That kind of thing. And you have to realize, well, I'm not naming names, of course, because everyone has their own life and there's no problem, but you have to realize that everyone makes choices. You can want to play it a bit more individually and take what I say and apply it to a personal strategy. There's no problem with that. Everyone does what they want. I'm not your dad, I'm not going to hold your hand and say do this, otherwise I'll hit you. There are cases where I do, I do support what needs to be done together, like what we did on ATH. The move to say, well, we'll set a take profit all together in the same place. It's here. I explained the reasons, and that specifically was the only thing where, well, I didn't let go, and I said no, it could harm people, and I'll give you a little feedback on that again. But when you know, because I also know you chat with me, and when I know that there are people who are a bit tense, let's say, because the market isn't necessarily doing what they want, don't forget one thing, if you personally don't do what we say on Discord, try to manage your frustration even more, try to manage your messages even more, and maybe not write in the collective groups because there are some people, excuse me, still this famous lump in my throat that never goes away week after week. There are people writing where you can feel they're a bit, well, they're emotional, it's a bit annoying, it's a bit of a drag, but they're also people who write to me privately and tell me "Well, I didn't necessarily respect the allocations, I didn't respect the entry prices, whether it's legitimate or not, by the way." Okay? Sometimes, there are people, well, they missed the boat because they just weren't there, they didn't have internet connection, they took it the next day, and that's it. But if you individually know that you're a bit off the beaten path, have, have really this attitude of saying, of telling yourself "OK, since I know that, I'll maybe not come, precisely, to make it felt that I'm frustrated or that there's something I don't like." After that, for everything else, and I insist on that too, and it's something that I told people who, because there are people who wrote to me saying "Yeah, well, I'm sorry, I took leverage" and who came to apologize to me, but actually you don't need to apologize, you're the one losing money on it. And I say this and I repeat it again, we are a community where, it's a good community. Okay? It's a good community, let's not lie, some things have gone a bit off track for the last 2 weeks because, again, we have to ask ourselves what's different in the last 2 weeks compared to before. Well, it's the market, that's all. We're experiencing something big that we don't like, all of this. And that's all that's different and that makes people change. Because people, we closed the group in June, let's remember, it's September, it's been 3 months since it closed. There are no new members except for recommendations, but it's Pinot, it's 30, 40 members. Apart from that, it's all the same members since April, at most. So, people aren't changing. What's happening is that we're experiencing a phase that is psychologically unbearable for many, which brings frustration again, which brings panic, and it's just emotion talking. People haven't changed. Tomorrow, it turns green again like this. You'll see that you'll all get along great again, be ready to meet up and go have a beer together. So, it's psychology, nothing more. So, we manage our frustration. I repeat, as I told the private members and the pretorians, I'm here too, even if I don't reply in the second. If you have a question, a need to talk, a need to be reassured, whatever, come guys, come, we'll chat, we'll talk, it can prevent so many things. You want to take leverage because there's, I don't know what, guys, it's like Alcoholics Anonymous, you don't have my phone number, but we're your sponsors. We're each other's sponsors, and you call. Well, [ __ ] I'm about to down a vodka. There. Well, I have the right to take leverage. Uh, there. And just so we can dissuade you. Mistakes are human. It can happen. The first year, I must have lost at least 50,000, 60,000 bucks in leverage. That's a lot of money. So, that's all we're saying. And what I'm telling you, I'm not a saint who woke up the next day and was better than everyone else and then poof and all that. I had the science. Not at all. I learned leverage like everyone else. I learned by losing tens of thousands of francs until I said [ __ ] but stop, actually, stop this mentality of saying damn, I want to go faster, and actually, well, 8 months later I wake up saying if I had just done something normal, a normal basic strategy, I would have had more gains than that, I'm tired of repeating this, and so, it made me click, and that click allowed me to change and never use leverage again. I know that can't be innate for everyone. Again. Talk, guys, talk, come chat, etc., etc. Now, for the rest, and this ties in a bit with something where there have been discussions about a member named Spark, Spark, I don't know how, who contributes a lot in the group, and who last time said "Well, I got yelled at by people and I said 'Fine, I'll stop contributing and that's it.'" Again, now, we'll make a little moderation effort where it's true that it's beneficial, it's beneficial to discuss, it's beneficial to confront opinions. What you need to remember, because globally that's where it goes wrong, is that there's always someone who starts with a word or a little phrase like "My big one" or "My little one" or something like that, and that's what leads the discussion to not necessarily ego, but in any case, a rise in the vocabulary that needs to be used, and it goes off the rails. So, now, and that's the watchword I'll give to the pretorians too, the first one to post something like that, well, again, the message is deleted. The deleted message is muted for 1 hour, for 2 hours, for a day, for a week, whatever, because as long as there's a constructive discussion, there won't be any anger. There. And we confront. I'm the first, I'm the first, no problem guys. I understand some remarks that are made. Typically, I give an order to buy, sell, I don't know what. It's true that, well, I don't know, we'll find, I don't know if we'll find examples, but there are necessarily. There. I say something and I don't necessarily give you the reasons for the order I'm giving you, between quotes, the order of the directive to follow or not follow, you choose. And well, now, I've heard that, I'll always put a few lines, not necessarily everything, but at least a few guiding lines to tell you why I suggest doing this, and we'll take the time in the live stream or later to explain this position, there's no problem. However, you can also, well, let's remove the however, you can also ask questions, challenge each other, because what's good is that as we increase our skills week after week, all together, that's also the goal of Discord, well, you also acquire skills that allow you to say, for example, but wait, we saw that maybe 3 weeks ago with Athri, now he's saying something, but compared to what he told us 3 weeks ago, well, maybe there's a contradiction. Come say it directly, and Athri, I don't understand. It says this, no, we can always discuss, there's no problem. The only point, and I'm relating this to what happened with Spark, who is a very good member, and I encourage him to come back and take part in the debate and be in constructive criticism, etc., etc. The only point on which I insist is that again, when I give you exit prices, especially collective ones like on ATH, respect them. Why do I tell you this? Because, wait, I'm removing this, it's pissing me off. There. Why do I tell you this? Because, typically, ATH is a small crypto. ATH is a small crypto. Starknet is a small crypto. These are small cryptos on which we can make interesting moves. Interesting moves, that's it. Okay? That's it. Interesting moves. Now, I've already explained to you many times. I have to take into consideration several things. I have to take into consideration what we weigh. I have to take into consideration a margin of error. That is, of course, people who won't listen, who will use leverage or expose themselves much more because I know how it works. So, I take that into consideration. And there are small cryptos like this on which I actually use something that is very, very simple, and that is called liquidation clusters. Liquidation clusters, we've seen them together, are zones in which people get liquidated. When we go down, well, it's long positions that get closed, that have their stop loss, and so we have big red candles suddenly, and conversely, when it goes up a lot and we have big green candles like this, there are short clusters, and so people get liquidated, and in which there are a lot of market buys. Typically, the zone of 6 cents, I told you the obvious zone, really obvious, is in this rectangle here which goes up to about 66, 67. I told you, we'll take a TP that's slightly before to be sure to be executed in full, and because in the zone that was right here, if I remember correctly, but really right here, that's where the short liquidation clusters were. And short liquidation cluster means huge market buys. And so, if we want to be sellers of all this, well, it's a treadmill, this thing. It's like when you go to the airport, you can walk, you have moving walkways to go faster. It's a moving walkway that accelerates everything, and we're sure that in there, everyone gets out at once, calmly, and we're at peace. There. And I'm telling you this, and I'm asking you to do it, not because it could have put us in danger on ATH, because with the calculations, it couldn't have put us in danger. But what I want is that we can all have a kind of procedure and behavior that we apply and for which we are ready and especially disciplined, because tomorrow, we'll reopen the groups. There will be a group 3, there will be a group 4, there will be a member limit, of course, because we can't have 5000, 6000 either, but typically a number in which we can arrive, and I think the maximum number will be around 1500 to 2000. You say 1500 to 2000 members, if we replicate the portfolio weight you have at the moment, you all together weigh a little over 20 million euros. So, in dollars it's even more, but let's stick to euros. A little over 20 million. Tomorrow, we multiply by 4 the number of members to reach 2000 members. That means we're at 80 million. You can imagine that if we reach 80 million and not everyone has discipline, and roughly half the people do whatever they want, well, you realize that on potentially 40 million, we can't just do anything. And it would suck for me to say, well, because people can't manage themselves, they can't discipline themselves, moves like this that are super interesting on cryptos that are also super interesting, and that's where from the beginning we've made, well, I won't say the best moves, but moves that were really surgical and that were great. ATH is one. Uh, well, great, it was another crypto on which we did that, and it was also a small crypto. These kinds of things that are super interesting. If I see that unfortunately, with the numbers, we're not disciplined, well, I have to take that into account too. For the good of the group. That's why, and I told Spark, who didn't have the same opinion as me, that on this point, I was uncompromising. However, that's the only point on which I was indeed uncompromising because it's a discipline that must be had so that we can all move forward and the numbers don't cause us a problem. That's all. For the rest, everything is open to debate, no problem. Uh, well, wait, I'll just go back there, there were the questions asked. Hop! And summarized by Halloween. No, it wasn't there. Where was it? Group 1. Group 2. Yeah, Group 1. So, uh, tac tac tac tac. Shall we start with the questions or not? Uh, yeah, yeah, don't worry. Halloween, Halloween, he will have, he will have, he will potentially, potentially his place in the, in the, in the violets. We'll see if he's good. Yeah, a little pressure, not big pressure. Yeah, but a little pressure. We'll start with the, the, the questions from Discord, in any case. After that, we'll take the email questions, and in between, we'll go where I wanted to take you from the beginning. But this little reminder was really important. There. It was really important. I'm counting on you guys. Uh, we're all adults, okay? Well, all except one. We're all adults, all adults, except one. So, that's still 550 adults. So, we control ourselves, guys, we control ourselves. We're all well-educated, we're all, I think, in the same boat. So, we control ourselves. Thank you very much. Uh, so, we'll just look at the questions. Regarding the creation of new stablecoins, should we simply see it as a response to existing demand to accompany crypto sales, or is it rather a sign of future massive purchases? No. So, when you create stablecoins, actually, think about it, if we simplify it very simply, who says mint and creation of stablecoins means that there are people who arrive and switch from fiat to stablecoins when the market cap of stablecoins increases like this. So, when I show you, for example, there's something here, typically 14 hours ago, there was a mint of 1 billion of SDT that was made. This mint is creation. So, when we talk about pure stablecoin creation, it means there's demand. When, conversely, there's a burn, like, for example, it was where here on September 16th, you see 2 billion, even 4 billion on September 16th of TTR that were burned, destroyed. Uh, well, that's the conversion to fiat. There. So, mint will always be for demand. So, that's a good sign, and we actually want to see a period in which we mint, and not a period in which we massively burn tokens. Brulk, regarding the options you mentioned, particularly the notion of Max Pain Price, can you tell us where we stand on this subject today and what impact it could have on the market? We'll look at that just after, don't worry. And I'll just note it because, hop, it wasn't on the agenda, but thank you for bringing it up. Uh, if we look at the price evolution of recent years, recent weeks, do you think we are still in phase 2 of the cycle or have we already entered phase 3? And in this context, have our price targets been adjusted downwards or upwards? So, that's an important question because, again, it summarizes a lot of what we're saying, and there's also a little psychological point that I find quite interesting. Frankly, we could write a doctoral thesis in psychology with the group. Frankly, we should get a doctoral student to come and do a thesis on it. Notice the pattern that is emerging, which is a really interesting psychological pattern. The cryptos we have in our portfolio that are currently experiencing a drop, and the ones that are suffering the most, are clearly uni. And the main question is, in hindsight, why didn't we sell? Why didn't we put stop losses to protect ourselves? Why didn't we put stop losses? And so, I've already answered that question, we can review it later. And by contrast, this psychology, what's interesting is that it only happens when things go down. However, if you look back at the discussions when there was ATH, there wasn't any talk of "Are we doing well by securing profits and doing risk management?" The question wasn't that. It was "Why aren't we selling higher?" So, when it goes up and we take profits, generally people say "But why aren't we selling higher? It's a shame to sell now when it could potentially keep going up." And when we don't sell and it goes down, it's the opposite effect. It's "But why?" So, there again, and we'll see it, we'll recall the macroeconomic, on-chain, and technical conditions. We'll always see it in this live stream. It's always the same thing in hindsight, guys. It's always very simple. It's always very simple. There are things we can see, there are things we can't see, unfortunately. And here, what we have before our eyes to answer the question is that, let's recall phase 2, with what we had before our eyes, was supposed to lead to a rise then a correction at the end of September, beginning of October. We are forced to note that the rise we expected did not happen. The rise we expected wasn't that. It was clearly not that. It was higher. The altcoins were also higher. If we take AV, Fê, no matter which ones, they were higher for the majority of them. So, the rise of phase 2, unfortunately, we didn't have it. The one that was anticipated. Okay. We were able to take a small profit on what? On SPK, on ATH, but it's relatively small for now, let's not lie, given the portfolio allocation. So, I tend to tell you that, at the moment, as I put on the public video, there are two things. There are two things: phase 2 was supposed to initiate a bull run end in mid-November, early December. However, with the data coming in, the reality is that the window of opportunity is increasing a bit. It's increasing a bit. We saw, we were talking about Q1 2026. So, if indeed the window of opportunity is extending, then phase 2, which we thought was now, well, actually phase 2 wouldn't be now, it would be precisely what we're going to experience in October, November. That would be phase 2, with phase 3 being precisely Q1 2026. So, that's what's beautiful and at the same time a torture in the financial market, is that everything is volatile. And even more so in a nascent market like cryptocurrency, we've seen it with the extension of cycles, with this, with that. Our plan, we have it before our eyes, but globally it needs to be reviewed every 3 weeks. So, that's what's a bit annoying and frustrating, for sure. I find that exciting too. But there's a good chance that phase 2, which we saw for now, will be delayed, and that we'll enter it. There. So, so, there. It wouldn't be canceled, it would have been delayed, and where we would have seen a phase 3 by the end of the year, it would actually be phase 2 for a phase 3 in early 2026. Uh, question from Jérôr Run. Is it still conceivable that BTC will record a rapid rise?

The order of +20% reaching, for example, 130,000 dollars this week or early October before experiencing a correction for the rest of the month? No, well obviously that's crypto. It has shown that anything is possible all the time. And what is quite interesting, sorry, is that even if we go back over the last cycles, well in fact what happened, and again, this is where if we reason in statistical terms, one thing happened: in a post-election year, Bitcoin in August has never finished bearish. There, it did it for the first time in its history. So we are reversing a dynamic that we have known until now. What is quite interesting is that when we look at the months of September, they have been quite bearish for a long time. However, early October did not mark new lows. There, we can take for example 2021, well the week of the 20th, the 25th, well we were doing that. Exactly what we are doing now, we are doing the exact same pattern as in 2021. Early October, you can see even if the first week was just there, we dipped a little bit, we didn't hit new lows, we went up directly. October too, October until the end was bullish and in November it corrected. If we take 2020, even though I'm less keen on 2020 because it's not a post-election year, well October, what did we have? Just at the end of September, like now, a small correction but nothing in October, we went up directly. If we go back to a post-election year, 2017, October, where are we? Where are we? Again, September, we continue the pattern. We are bearish in September and in October we experience no retracement, it pumps immediately with a parabolic phase that follows. And if we go further back to a post-election year, 2013, I think it's the same thing. There, September, it's interesting that even if we compare 2013 to 2025 by saying that in 2013 it was very little capitalized, there were very few institutions in it, the pattern is there. It's that at the beginning of October, there's nothing. It's the end of September that marks the end of the correction and October, November, go. And moreover, in the stats, it shows up: the number of months during which we are bullish and the number of months during which we have the best performances statistically speaking, it's October-November. And we see that clearly. Uh, what do we have here? What year is this? 2013. No, no, it's fine. We saw it just before. After, no, it wasn't a post-election year either, no, it was a bear market year. Bye. OK, so that's the reality. And again, I hope it will be this one, and we'll see why. We've seen that we're behind and that we're clearly decoupling from M2 because the money seems to be going more towards gold, which is also in the process of putting in place an 8-year cycle top. So all the pieces are aligning, honestly, but we're repeating the pattern that at the end of September we correct, and if we repeat what we should repeat, then October is not supposed to mark a new low before taking off. Now again, there are the stats, there is reality. We know that the highest risk window is in there. There, because there is always a maximum of liquidations waiting. There are a lot of them waiting higher up too. But we know that here, there is a point, there is a small trap in which we could take a lot of liquidity. So to be seen. But indeed, once what is happening currently, that is to say cleaning up the longs, especially on altcoins, that's over, there's only one side left to blow up and that's the other. And we'll see later with the on-chain data that what's happening behind the scenes right now is not selling, at least not predominantly. In a bear market, in traditional markets, it's consistent that BTC could behave like a safe haven and instead of falling, it could increase. No, no, no. The new order of risk assets, the riskiest category is low caps. Then the category above is mid caps. The one above that is large caps. The one above that is Ethereum, then Bitcoin. But when you compare it to traditional assets, even in risk markets, so stock markets, crypto is the riskiest. So it's the one that takes the hit first. There, from a professional point of view, the big players always secure their risk by offloading what is the riskiest. So Bitcoin will take a hit like everyone else. There. But it's true that Bitcoin has this safe haven aspect that we see a little less, let's not lie, it's especially something that was talked about a little while ago. And I think this safe haven narrative will resurface when gold enters a bear market. Because I don't know if your memory goes back that far, but when gold enters a pullback or bear market phase like here in 2020, like here in 2022, that's when Bitcoin precisely has its digital gold safe haven card, Bitcoin pumps while gold retraces, and that's when we play the card. There. So we'll see, but for now, as long as gold pumps, don't count too much on the safe haven card. The whole group is already 100% exposed, but for those who have liquidity available in the month, is it relevant to reload? You previously indicated that one should wait for a drop between -20% and -30% on a crypto before reinforcing their position. Is that still valid? Yes. And in this context, is it worth reloading on projects like SPK which has dropped by -40%? Yes, yes, yes, yes. So, again, you can do all the positions we have. OK. All the positions we have that are up to date, you can DCA them all with the -20% rule. The -20% rule is very important. I could prepare a small document for you when I finish the training, where I think you've already seen videos on Facebook, well on Facebook, [ __ ] I'm stupid, on YouTube that present strategies and compare them, like DCA. A video that circulates a lot, or rather a topic that circulates a lot, is buy the dip versus DCA, meaning the person who buys as soon as there's a crash and the person who just blindly does a month-by-month DCA with the money they have. Well, in fact, there's a third version that's even better and beats the other two: it's to do a DCA with the -20% rule every time you DCA. You buy, and if, for example, you buy at Ave here, you wait for -20% before reloading. So that means if you had bought Ave at 335 dollars, you could reload now. Otherwise, we consider that the price is not falling enough to reload. I'll show you that, but statistically it gives you the best results on drops that are not anticipated or at least depths of drops that are not expected. Typically, that of the first quarter of this year. It was a drop that was not expected, at least not so deep. And the person who buys, for example, AVE here, who unfortunately falls into the trap of buying at a price that pumps and buys back 10% lower, then 10% lower, then 10% lower, after three purchases, they have their accumulation price here, their average accumulation price here, and they have no more money to buy lower. Whereas the person who, precisely, did a DCA with the 20% rule, ends up with three purchases with a PMA that is right here and who, in fact, finds themselves waiting, so to speak, for 4 weeks before the price exceeds their average price again. And this on a variety of altcoins. I've taken large caps, I've taken Bitcoin too, I've taken mid caps and low caps. This is what gives the best results in terms of final return and especially in terms of patience. That is to say, how long do you have to wait before the price goes back above your average purchase price. And that's why I told you -20%. Not less. -10% is nothing, guys, that's not a correction. That's normal. -15% is also normal. 20%, we can go. There, below -20% it's a normal day like any other on cryptocurrency. Let's not lie. A while ago, you mentioned a project to revalue gold and a possible conversion of US reserves into Bitcoin, which could be an extremely bullish announcement if confirmed in October. Do you have any news on this subject? No, I don't have any news on this subject, and I don't think they will do it right away. In my opinion, they will still wait to boost the markets even more. And if we recall, very quickly, because it took 2 hours to describe, there are currently gold reserves with all the federal banks participating in the Federal Reserve. And where is the gold? Well, wait, gold is here. And in the accounting of the banks participating in the Federal Reserve, the book value of gold is not $3,700 an ounce, it's I don't know how much, but they haven't revalued it since it's like between 40 and 90 bucks. I don't know how much it is. So in fact, what will happen, and they will do it, well, it's true, potentially in October but a bit later, I think when a real top will be forming, they will be able to use that. And when I say they will, it's Trump using this accounting discrepancy so that the Treasury can tell the banks participating in the Federal Reserve, you send us all your gold certificates, we will revalue them at their fair value because it's as if in the accounting there was an asset that doesn't have the right value, ultimately, because all the ounces of gold they have in millions of ounces are accounted for at, yes, $90 I think, something like that. So between $90 and $3,700, there's a big difference in your balance sheet. And in fact, it's a maneuver in which the Treasury could revalue the real reserves of the banks participating in the Federal Reserve. Then, once it's updated, they could send back the gold certificates with the real value of gold. And therefore, the difference, so $3,700 and change minus $90, this difference per ounce of gold held by the banks, well these banks would have to print liquidity to compensate for the difference, and you would have, for free, out of nowhere, a monetary creation which, at the moment, would be $1 billion, I think, $1 billion, which is half the American deficit. So it's a maneuver that Trump can use because he has power over the Treasury, he has the power to say "OK, now you do this," and it would allow him to make a maneuver if Powell doesn't want to create liquidity. And I think, given the guy, well, that's what he wants to do. That's what he wants to do to further say "My balance sheet is great, I'm the best in the world." And that's what's in the famous Bitcoin law for strategic reserves. It's stated that federal banks, once this law on strategic Bitcoin reserves passes, I think it was the first 6 billion dollars of state investment per year must go into Bitcoin. I think that was the thing, and that this money will be acquired thanks to the revaluation of gold reserves, which must be done within 180 days from the moment the law passes. So from the moment the law passes, there are 6 months to do this revaluation. So it will go very fast. And if I put myself in their shoes, they have no interest in waiting for gold to be here. They have more interest in doing it when gold is here. And for now, that's what we're experiencing. So we'll see if for them it's a reasonable calculation or if they say even if it crashes, so to speak, and comes back to $3,000, between $90 and $3,000 there's enough margin, we don't care, that's up to them, but they will use that to create money out of nowhere, so to be continued. On applying the same approach as in your last video with a VP on the last bearish wave until now or a Fibonacci on the rise, we get a convergence of points of interest around 78.6, 6.20. Do you have any data that would show there's no reason to go that far? Yes, we have data. I'll refer you to what's in the liquidation maps and the order book. The biggest accumulation level is not here. It's higher. It's higher, and I think it's high. I'll tell you right away, well, it's not very far from where we are, actually. It's not very far from where we are. It's around here. It's around here. So we'll see what happens at the order book level. We'll look now. For now, it's not necessarily very worrying at the net level. Honestly, it's not pretty to see, huh. We agree. That's not pretty to see. Especially a technical pattern that is a bullish pattern that is a bearish resolution, it's not pretty to see. But for now, there's no panic, as we say in our country. Even if it might give the opposite impression, there's no panic. But we'll see the data evolutions to see what we do about it. Regarding Stark, are there any elements that would indicate a possible reintegration or does everything point towards a bearish continuation? Chart link. Ah, oops. Well, let's look. Wait, did you say Spark or Stark? No, Stark. Starknet. Well, Starknet, where you drew a trend, you drew a bearish trend line, well, you drew a trend line that's right here. There, on which we've closed twice so far, we're just below it. We'll see the close. In fact, the bearish trend is contained within a huge descending wedge. It's contained within a huge descending wedge and a Wyckoff accumulation. So maybe you just need to draw the wedge better, because as long as you're inside the wedge, the trendline here, it can be broken, and then it's a bit lower. It can very well go to the bottom of the wedge and go back up. That's not necessarily a problem. Now, I find that it's reacting better than other altcoins to the downside, so I'm not happy to see that. For now, we're still quite close to the top of the wedge, so let's see how it goes. OK. Tick tick tick. OK. Perfect, perfect. Yes, ZS, you'll see, you'll see later, it's not a problem. So our dear friend Bitcoin, dear friend Bitcoin, we saw the biggest point of interest that was very recent. Very recent, when was that? It was yesterday, it was at the level of taking the lows right there with a good accumulation on the order book map. So we'll see, we'll see what happens tomorrow in the order book update because there was, it was what? It was in 15 minutes, there was a pretty nice reaction. I would have liked to see it break higher, but for now it's not breaking higher, so we'll see what happens. We've already covered Bitcoin, there's not much to say. The final landing zone, I'd say, could be here, and moreover, it's the bottom of the megaphone. So we'll see in this famous time window which, I think, we can even place it earlier, at the beginning of October, because we've seen that in October we generally start off with a bang. Well, this time window is the danger window. There. I almost want to paraphrase the W9 documentaries "In Search of Action," but it's really the danger zone there. So we'll see what happens, and that allows me to link it to the YouTube video I made, when was that? It was yesterday, regarding what we can play, what we can't play, etc. And Brand came back to it quite a bit, and this will be the last time I digress from what's happening on Discord. Don't worry. When you joined the community, there was generally one thing you did or didn't do: well, rely on cycles, buy low, sell high, live through corrections, unfortunately live through them by being in them. And when you joined the community, as I told you, there are corrections we can see, corrections we will play. And since this year, we've been able to play two of them. We've been able to play two. We were able to play the biggest one, which was at the beginning of this year. So I'm not unhappy about that. And we were able to play, which one was it? Which one was it? Where was it? It was this one, I think. The small one here, I believe. We were able to play. In any case, there was the choice to leave or stay. Now, I'll tell you again, there are things we can see, there are other things that unfortunately we can't see, or that we can discern, but the probabilities on the table aren't high enough to say we're playing one case or the other. By the way, I had a call with a member who asked me, "Can we call each other?" And that's why I tell you, if you have questions, doubts, if you're freaking out, I'll always be there to answer you. So no worries. The other day, I had a call with a member who told me, "But specifically this drop, why didn't we play it?" and so on, as opposed to this one which we played. Well, there's this time window in which I've been telling you for a while, end of September, beginning of October, there's this famous PO3 that's coming. It's a zone in which there have always been turbulences. Well, why not? For me, there are two factors that make it so I wasn't comfortable playing it in relation to that. The first thing is that there was enough data that allowed me to put a 50/50 on the table. That's the first thing. The second thing is that this choice to sell here, I made it personally, I played it, I did it. So for me, it's inconceivable to say there's a 50/50, I'm going to play the correction too, and not tell others, because I take the same positions as you. I'm exposed like you on the same cryptos as you with the same allocations. With more money in total, yes, but with the same allocations. So if you take a hit, I take a hit, and if you make gains, I make gains too. That's how it works. Here, too uncertain, too uncertain. If we had reached this famous zone where I honestly expected we would reach it before a potential pullback there, according to the data, I might have said like here, 50/50, but that wasn't the case here. I honestly thought we would at least consolidate there, take the last shorts right here, consolidate there, and go down. We didn't do it. There wasn't enough data for me to say it's 50/50, and especially I wasn't going to play it. So knowing all that, I didn't want to take the opportunity to say for every thing, well, it can go up, it can go down, do as you wish, for me to protect myself and say, well, at least 50% will be in the right direction. There, if I don't want to take risks, that's what I do. If I think even 10% that there's a correction, I tell you guys, maybe there is one. Those who want to play it, you play it. Those who don't, you don't play it. So we divide the group in two, and at least 50% of the time, well, I'm winning. I could say, "Yes, well, I told you so, and at least half of you are winning." But that's not why you're here. You're here for someone to step up and tell you, "Here, there's something potentially, we're at least at a 50/50 chance, and I'm going to play it." And since I'm going to play it, I'm telling you, play it with me, those who want to do it, and those who don't. There. However, if we're at 70%, 80%, 90% chance of going in one direction, then I won't tell you, you have a choice, I'll tell you guys, do it. If you don't do it, you're fools. If we're wrong, we're wrong. But here, given the stats and the probabilities on the table, let's not be fools. And what we have on the table since we've been having this correction is that in the short term, well, unfortunately, it's too uncertain. However, in the medium term, in the medium term, we know. And that's why I said in the YouTube video, I prioritize what I know over what I don't know. And since I know that's there, well, I know it will be swallowed up very quickly, it will be worked on very quickly. That will also be worked on very quickly, and so on. So that's why I didn't tell you to play this drop. But be careful anyway, be careful because it's not because we've done it once, twice that people were panicking here because there was Israel, Iran, and that I made a 20-minute video to tell you to be careful because war has positive effects on GDP and we're going to rise. It's not because we've done it once, twice, and three times since the beginning of the year that you should expect to be able to do it every time. That's not reality. That's not reality at all, and you're experiencing it now, which is not a bad thing, because otherwise it gives you expectations that will be totally misaligned, let's say, with what we're going to do. Don't forget the main promise: you're spending a full year with me, a full year, that's 200%. There, that's the thing etched in stone that I tell you, that I repeat to you. I'm not saying we'll be able to see every correction. What I always tell you is that there are some we'll be able to see and play, and that will allow us to compound interest, and there are others we won't see. And even further than that, there might be some I'll tell you to play, and I'll be wrong because I'm human like everyone else. I'm not a bot, I'm not an AI, I'm not an insider, I'm a guy like everyone else, and the market can also catch me off guard. So keep that in mind. But what matters again is not the race, it's the finish line. It's that at the finish line, we have what we struggled for, what you incidentally pay a subscription for. That's what counts. What happens in between, guys, doesn't count. It really, really doesn't count. So we wait, so we wait for the finish line, and you'll see that your perspective will clearly change in the coming weeks. That was the last question, I think. Yes. No, it wasn't a question. It's me who already moved on. So Bitcoin, what's happening, well, we still have this damn megaphone. So great, we can make highs, we can make lows, we'll see. But we know that what awaits us is what comes next. So that's not too much of a concern. And what's also interesting is what's happening on-chain. On-chain, things are happening that are interesting. I already showed you these alerts regarding what's happening with stablecoin minting. So we see here, there are billions being minted in different stablecoins. The last time we had outflows, it was here. On September 16th, we had stablecoins that were taken for fiat for 4 billion. OK. Uh, whereas in addition, in the preceding days, well, you see the number of billions that have been printed, it's just enormous. So what went out is a drop in the ocean when you look at it in summary, and what's coming in, however, is not a drop in the ocean. It's not a drop in the ocean. It's quite good. First thing I like to show you on-chain regarding the change in holders. What's happening with those who hold BTC. And you have a nice map here that shows the BTC price in white, and you have green waves, red waves. So what you see immediately is that you have big red waves, big red peaks when we reach market weeks, indicating that there's Bitcoin selling. When it's red, there's a lot of Bitcoin selling. And when it's green, there are generally big peaks. Well, that's when, in any case, when the red ends, that's when we start to gently but surely form bottoms where there's good accumulation, or at least an end to selling pressure. That's what you need to understand. And that's why you also find red peaks in bottom areas and not just in top areas, notably here, because there are take-profit zones, so it goes up and we take profit. There are also zones where it doesn't go up and there's red because they are panic zones where people sell and capitulate. Typically here, at the end of the bear market in 2018, it capitulates. Here, at the end of the bull run, of course, we take profits on the way up. We take profits on a parabolic phase. When you see this parabolic phase with red, it means there are big profit-takings. So you should start to worry gently. Here, bottom phase, FTX, it crashes while there was a lot of accumulation throughout the bear market. It capitulates, people are scared. And here, what we see is that on the drop we just experienced, it also capitulates. OK? It took profits, certainly, it also capitulates. And we're gently coming out of the red, indicating that selling pressure is gently starting to dwindle. And when that happens, it's in intra-cycle bottom areas. Typically here, you see, there's selling pressure at a local top. The price starts to gently decrease. There's less and less selling pressure, and we reach the trough here when we go beyond the red zone. Here it was the same, we had almost no green, but at least the red was fading a bit. Here it's the same. Selling pressure, for the moment, this on-chain indicator tells us that it's calming down and clearly returning to zero right now. It's clearly returning to zero, and that ties in with the order book, it ties in with the liquidation maps which show that this selling is also being absorbed. It's also being absorbed, and we see it, we see it clearly, and we're gently moving back into the green. So this is a fairly important indicator. What's also important is this indicator here, which compares Bitcoin's supply, those who hold BTC, by opposing two groups. STH, which are short-term holders, so those who have held Bitcoin for less than I don't know how many days. Wait, let's see. Uh, tick tick tick tick tick. Where is it? OK. Yes. Those who have held Bitcoin for less than 55 days. We consider them short-term holders, and those who have held Bitcoin for longer than that, who are long-term holders. So you have short-term here in orange, long-term in blue. And what's quite typical is to see that during major upward phases, orange, we have major downward phases, red. Why? Because it illustrates that those who are long-term holders of Bitcoin are selling and taking massive profits at the tops. So massive, these are big drops that really make lows in the curve. Whereas those who are short-term, who are much more like retail investors, well, what do they do? They buy massively and they buy at the top areas. OK? So, what's important here is to note when we have two things, and I'll show you another map just after that will illustrate this principle even more. What needs to be demonstrated and what is dangerous is when we start to have parabolic phases with ratios that start to invert. You see the label, for example, here, STH, short-term, we're at 25.6%, while long-term is almost 75%. This means that 75% of people who own Bitcoin on November 6, 2020, 75% are long-term holders. Who are long-term holders? Professional investors, investment funds, big players who are there and positioned at the lows. Who are the short-term holders? They are the retail investors who arrive with the hype and buy where the big players sell. So when we see ratios starting to invert, that is to say, here, before the parabolic phase, we're at 76%, 3/4 is long-term. And when we reach a top phase, we go from 3/4 to less than 2/3, and retail investors, who are rising in a parabolic phase. Then, for sure, it's massive profit-taking, you have to ask yourself questions. There, we are still at a ratio that is very, very, very high, 77% of long-term holders. So long-term holders, for now, yes, they take profits from time to time, like here, they took profits, they bought back Bitcoin on their rise here. So we see that again, there is, there is, how to say, they have faith in Bitcoin. They have faith in Bitcoin and they are increasing again. We are at levels where, currently, long-term holders are still there and are taking far too few profits. More than 3/4 of people who own Bitcoin are long-term holders, pardon me. And what's interesting is that when you look, it's the same chart but on another site where the data is a bit different. And this, on the other hand, is something you have on quite a few sites, you have some.

The data diverges a little bit. So it's always good to compare a little. What's quite interesting is that here the data is the same but the, how to say, the ratio between the lines, it has been put on the same scale as we call it in terms of percentage, whereas here it's not on the same, the same scale. Hence the difference. But what's quite interesting is especially when the Bitcoin price here in white crosses with the curve of long-term holders. We have a price that increases while the long-term holder curve crosses the price and settles below the price. And that marked a top on each Bitcoin cycle. Here in 2017, we see it, there's clearly an inversion of the curves here as well. Whereas conversely, the more the curves diverge and move away with an LTH supply that is above. LTH Supply, let's recall once again, it's the long-term holders. These set bottoms, they buy the price to hold it long-term, while the price is falling. We had the same thing here in 2021. We had the crossover. Okay, even if we went back up afterwards, well, it's this crossover that marked, in any case, the cycle top. What we have at the moment and it's quite nice, is to see that we are still quite far from a crossover. I haven't done the calculation to see precisely if we stay at this number of long-term holders, how much Bitcoin needs to rise to cross it. But it's still the same, the same range for now, around 140,000 to 150,000. I haven't done a precise calculation, but that's the window of opportunity. So we are not, in any case, at a level here, in terms of ratios, that allows us to say that we have this typical market inversion at the end of a bull run with a rush coming from long-term holders who say "that's it, it's over, we've made enough profit to sell." That's not the case at the moment, which is also quite interesting. Well, this shows some charts, but I don't think you need that to realize it regarding ETFs. What's quite interesting is that despite the drop we're experiencing at the moment, we have bearish flows that are decreasing. We have bearish flows that are decreasing, and this has been a pattern we've seen on every major bottom before moving up again. We experienced it once here where we had increasing bearish volumes. You see here in red, we go deeper here, we go deeper here. However, from the next dip, people aren't flipping anymore. People aren't flipping anymore, they start buying back, and if we were to draw a trend line between these peaks of selling, we have selling that is subsiding. Here, same thing, we continue to drop. We continue to drop. Here, unlike what we did there, we set a low. We set a low, and yet the selling volumes are drastically reducing. And we have exactly the same thing at the moment. There is a lot of fear everywhere, a lot of uncertainty, a fear index that is plunging, but the selling pressures are subsiding. They are subsiding considerably. And why are they subsiding considerably? Quite simply because, well, we're crushing everyone. We're crushing everyone, and we're starting to crush fewer people because we've really crushed a lot of people. So there's always this thing where we can still crush quite a few people, let's not lie, but overall, and not even altcoins, just on Bitcoin, we are really crushing the longs. This big spike here is people getting rekt. When you compare that to the shorts, the shorters are calm, and this is where we always find a dynamic that is specific to the market. We've seen it, the market is manipulated, exchanges have an extremely strong interest in being able to direct the price where they want to direct it to make maximum profit. When one side is cleaned out so thoroughly, again and again and again, the sentiment reverses. We've also seen it with the funding rates, they reverse, and when we've finished screwing everyone over, what do we do? We attack the other side, and there's quite a bit to gain there too. So, so, well, it's also quite interesting regarding the rate of, how to say, of retention, of holding Bitcoin by holders. We see that there was a dip just here around $104,000, and since we've moved back above, dip or no dip, holders have only been increasing. You see the curve, even if it's not exponential like this, we are really going back up. Regardless of the corrections, it's an upward trend. People are buying, people are buying, buying, buying. And that's what we can see. You can look at all the charts you want. I've shown you others, all the charts you want, you can take them, no problem. Every time we have drops on this kind of thing, that's precisely when there are massive sales and people exit. So, for now, we're good. On the macro level, what's interesting were also the figures we saw today. I said I would explain them to you. So I will explain them to you. The calculator is stupid. I'll just show you again in the comments because it's funny when we've finished screwing everyone over. Yes, then you understand. Yes, indeed, we're all speaking the same language. Where was it? It was in newscho. So, yes, thank you Audi for the PDF. We'll look at it. We'll see what's happening. Update on GDP. What stood out? Tick tick tick tick tick. Okay. Interesting. So, you know, we saw in the channel, I posted this today. I posted this today with Audi where we had the GDP re-evaluation for the third time or the second time, which brings GDP to 3.8%. We also had durable goods orders which rose to 2.9% instead of -0.3%, and job seekers which were lower than expected. I told you these are pretty good data. Now, there wasn't any here, but I think regarding houses for sale, we were at 4 million, slightly above consensus. We always find what we see, which is that there are more and more houses for sale, more and more. Anyway, so what's interesting is to talk about GDP quickly, even if it's not the most bullish news. Thank you Audi for the PDF, I invite you to read it, very interesting, where he put two things that are very important. First, that indeed, re-evaluations allow us to see that consumer spending is actually increasing, whereas it was very quiet in the last re-evaluations. So that's good. Imports are also decreasing a little bit. But where it's best, it's not necessarily that. That's cool. Okay. But where it's cool is especially regarding these charts that show consumer sentiment about the economy. And that's where, even if GDP isn't the big news, the good news is this. We'll come back to it in a few seconds. Even if GDP, okay, it's good at 3.8%, but we know that the figures are a bit, you know, inflated and that this is driving things. Okay, that's cool. But where it's cool is that this kind of figure, and it's what we were discussing with the pre-traders before, these kinds of figures will serve a purpose. What we want, if we stick to a very simplistic mindset, what we want and what we know, is the following. We know that the very big players have been positioned since good entries which are here, here, and where there was a very large accumulation, it's rather in this basket ranging from $15,000-$16,000 to $75,000, except for Michael Saylor who buys anywhere blindly. So what we want to see now is precisely the hype of people arriving. And tell yourselves one thing, that the average retail investor doesn't understand this. You send them this report, they'll read it, they'll say "What is this thing?" However, what the average retail investor needs to know is that the economy is doing well. And when they turn on their television, watch the news, watch Fox News, Fox News, [expletive] Fox News, Fox the fox, yes, Fox and not Fox Rep, Fox News, all the Republican channels which are recording record audiences since Trump is in power, they will say what? Magnificent. GDP raised to 3.8%. Everything is going well. Trump is doing a great job. The economy is doing very well. The bank advisor who calls his client, not in his own interest of course, because if the advisor wanted his client's interest, he'd say "Here's how to do it, but on the S&P 500, don't bother and never move." No, he'll say what? He'll say "Sir, Madam, this is a great opportunity to enter the market. Look, GDP is increasing." That's a matrix that people understand. I call someone on the phone and say the durable goods orders have increased and we had a forecast of -0.3%, it's 2.9%. They'll tell me, "But I'm telling you, there's GDP increasing, everyone knows what that is, and that will give confidence to the consumer, and this confidence will be reflected in the market because confidence in the market means potentially increased spending, okay, and that's important, and that's what's happening, and that's what will happen with GDP. That's very important. Another thing that's very important is this, durable goods orders, and especially what I put for you, which for me is a crucial date, October 1st, again October 1st, it's quite interesting in terms of timing, which could really launch the phase we're all waiting for, are the ISM manufacturing figures, which are currently at 48.7. I'll show you something again. I'll clean up the chart. Hop. And you'll tell me if it reminds you of anything. ISM, ISM, ISM, where is it? Where is it? Where is it? Here it is. We saw together that the ISM measures the economic activity of manufacturing companies above all. There are different types of ISM. What interests us is this one regarding the manufacturing sector and especially regarding the creation and design of goods, not services. We don't take service companies, we're talking about those who make goods, cars, dishwashers, iPhones, cutlery, anything, subway cars, buses. Okay? And when these companies are in economic expansion, the ISM jumps. I remind you, when we are above 50, we consider the economy to be expanding. When we are below 50, we consider the economy to be slowing down. And what's holding things back at the moment, honestly, is this. We're at 48.7. Because when we are, and in economics, they teach you this, when we are below 50, it's not good. It's not great. Okay. However, it's worse to go from 50 to 49.5. The effect on the economy with a 0.5 drop will be worse than if we go from 50 to 57. There's always an effect where bad news is much stronger than good news. And if you notice, between Covid and what we had during the bull run, we had a truly parabolic rise, and if we mirror this chart and flip it, we had a real follow-through of this curve here. What's interesting is that since the rebound here, we've had a rise, yes, where we've gone above 50 points two or three times, no, twice we've gone above 50 points. We have this step-by-step rise. Bitcoin follows the same type of rise. Step-by-step, it rises, it corrects, it rises, it corrects, it rises, it corrects, because it's also strongly correlated to this indicator that tells us whether we are in economic expansion or not. And so, where it will be interesting, remember one thing, is to ask yourself, "Okay, what do we have at hand to predict whether the ISM will rise or fall in the future?" That's a very important point. And by the way, we would be in this phase here, okay? We would have peaked here, we would be in the process of falling here, the rebound here was this one, we would be in the process of doing this one. What would we have to predict that the ISM will rather move into this range in the coming figures? And a first clue is precisely this. Durable goods orders, what are they? In fact, they are all the orders placed by companies that are integrated into the ISM. All the orders placed to then supply goods for sale. And so there's a logic that is as follows: if we look back at these figures, it means that typically a company that makes dishwashers, I don't know, you go to Wait, you have what in France that does that? Yes. For example, Boulanger. Boulanger or Darty or I don't know. Yes, Boulanger. Maybe take Boulanger. By the way, it's funny that a company is called Boulanger when they make electronic products. But anyway, Boulanger sees that in its stocks, the stores are relaying information, well, demand is down, customers are buying a little less. We see a 10% drop in hair dryers, a 15% drop in dishwashers. So, do you think during these orders, not necessarily, will Boulanger order raw materials, parts, that sort of thing to make dishwashers if we assume they make them, do you think they will order more? No, they will order less because they see that there is less demand. However, if suddenly figures come in saying "Well, we're in trouble because we don't have enough stock, everything is selling out, we see sales exploding, +15% here, +10% there," what will they do? They will order much more raw materials, much more spare parts, assuming again that they don't buy the finished product and that they assemble it themselves. And we can assume that when this figure rises, it's precisely because these companies, who have this information about whether the consumer is buying more or less, they have it, they are the source. And so if it rises, we can assume that there will also be more for sale and that the ISM index will also rise. So this is very good news for what? For the ISM next week. This is good news. Okay, for now, thanks to this, we can assume that we will have good news next week regarding the ISM. Already, we see that the curve, even if it's contracting, there's an upward trend, that's a good thing. But between observing an upward trend that can be reversed like here and like generally everywhere, here we have something concrete in terms of figures that will lead to an ISM that, we hope, will exceed 50 and be around 52-53. That would be great. That would put a new high here. That would be great. And so that's the good news at the moment. And so we will wait next week, October 1st, it's really the most important thing because we have everything on the table. We really have, when I say everything on the table, we have everything on the table. We have the M2 making new highs. Where is the M2? It's not here. Uh, where are you M2? Come here. Hop, we have the M2 which, on a weekly basis, is starting to make, ah, nice. That wasn't updated. But it made a new high and is correcting, but it made a small new high. So that's good, liquidity is not really pouring out here for now. It's pouring out more here. But once the peak arrives on gold and it reverses again, we've seen the charts too, that's when everything else will take off. But well, we are missing this. At the moment, we have GDP which is here and which is driving consumer sentiment. We have figures again that show that unemployment is not necessarily going to explode immediately with a big fear of recession. Here, we were at 4 million for the real estate sector, items for sale. Credit default curves are rising gently but surely, but are not yet at a bullish explosion like before the subprime crisis. So, we have time, we have time. We don't have 2 years either, we have a few months ahead of us. But when we see that this is holding steady, that this is increasing, if we also have, as we have now, rate cuts to generate liquidity, a dollar drop that will also stimulate liquidity in other currencies and therefore market liquidity, and if we also have the last indicator we need, the ISM, which goes above 50 and shows the market that we are in a clear economic expansion phase. Then we have everything. Then we really, really have everything, and it's not just what we have here. We are on macro and micro. We have the ISM again which is right here. So, we have fallen sharply after Covid, since, no, since, hop, since June 2023. After the bottom, well, we're finding a great upward trend. And we have something else that's quite interesting that's ahead of the ISM and is called the Fed Financial Condition Impulse Growth. This in red and that. And what is it? It's an index. And here you have the definition. I'll take it right here and put it like this. You can translate it. Hop, hop, hop, hop. To translate it if you want. Or if someone has a charitable soul and wants to translate it for everyone. Basically, it's a kind of index. Hop. Okay, I'll translate it quickly. It's a kind of index that measures, with several key elements, the growth of the economy. And this thing is ahead of the ISM. So when it falls, the ISM falls. When it rises, the ISM rises. And it's ahead. I don't know how far ahead anymore. I'd have to check again. But when it rises, the ISM follows with a slight delay in what's happening. And what we had here was the drop here which caused the drop in the ISM there. And what we're missing here, the data basically, is this. The rise here is not included in the ISM. And what should be published next week, far from the fear being instilled in the markets at the moment, is precisely a rise in the ISM that will come and reverse things at the beginning of October. Basically, that's what should happen. And it will be interesting, and this correlation with the ISM has always been there and it's, it's, it's almost 90% to 95%. So it's quite interesting to verify. So, thank you very much Audi for, so, for your thing. So, wait, for the, yes, for the translation. So, wait, I'll go to the site because again, yes, I haven't picked up the options. I'm sorry, I still haven't picked up the subscription. Ah, yes, wait 2 seconds, I'm looking at another screen. Ah yes, I have it. Cool. So, wait, we'll go to end of day ETF. We'll go to Hop, I'll put it here. We'll go see what's happening. So, so, where is it? Where is it? Where is it? Where is it? We'll go to Bitcoin ETF to see what the big players are playing at the moment. So, we're at 50 points. For October 17th, it's targeting 53 points. For November 21st, 57 points. So, wait. 17th, 21st, 53, 57. 17th, 21st, 53, 57. Uh, okay. 17th, 21st. So, wait, let's remove this. Let's put it on daily for October 17th. Where is it? Tick tick. It's here, and November 21st. Come on, let's put it here. This is too much. Why is it so big? Tick tick tick tick. And we said 53, 57. For now, they are rather pressing that for October, we are here, and for November, for now, we are here. Knowing that it evolves. Knowing that it evolves, generally when it drops, they see targets rather downwards, and when it rises, they see them, they see them rising. Remember what happened with Ethereum. When it started to rise, they had the first CP which was here. When it started to rise, they moved it here, we just didn't reach it, but we went higher as soon as it was bullish enough. So what's quite interesting is that it's correcting here. It sees a Bitcoin that, yes, the equivalent would be the equivalent would be $121,000 again. Mid-October, in fact, in 2 weeks, it sees that at $121,000. That's what it means, and in November it sees it higher. Knowing that if we go there, well, when we go there, they will raise the targets. So that's cool. Let's put it back. Wait, where is it? So that's nice. Now, again, we need to see where we're starting from. Are we going to scrape the lowest point on Bitcoin, which was, which was right here, let's recall, it's gently plunging. We'll see. These are future possibilities, but again, we're not going to bet on something uncertain when we're certain of what will happen next. So we're grown-ups, and we're grown-up ladies too, because we have ladies on the Discord. So we'll take it easy, and then, well, we know we'll be in profit, so relax. In any case, that's for Bitcoin. And January 16th, wait, December 19th, it sees 55 points, so a slight correction of 2 points, not much, that's 5%, but in January, there's always this big target, mid-January, we saw it on Ethereum, let's look again, 60 points, mid-January, so it really expects a rise. Mid-January, 60 points, where is it? It's here, the 16th, it's right here, 60, mid-January, here. So, between us, it sees that arriving really at the highest point in mid-January. We'll have to see afterwards, but unfortunately, there's no data yet for later. Ethereum, what will happen with it? Normally, Ethereum should calm down. Normally, it should have expectations that calm down, and I'll tell you why afterwards. So, ETH, 349 for September 26th, even. For tomorrow, so to speak. Wait, for tomorrow, it sees it at how much? Wait, what is it? 39 for tomorrow. Okay, why not? Okay, well, I think they're just mistaken, that's all, because to go from, yes, to go to 39 tomorrow. 32 to 39, that's 20% on ETH. That seems a bit unlikely, but well, you never know. Maybe there can be good surprises. October 3rd, 36, that's already better. That's already more, it seems much more plausible to say that by October 3rd, by the end of next week, we'll have recovered 10-15% from where we are, and January 16th, 37, so it goes up a little. October 17th, 32, so yes, it's a bit uncertain on that, but it doesn't shock me. It doesn't shock me because in the, how to say, in the path of liquidity, there's Bitcoin which is always there, which is taking a lot of things, but well, ETH has still had a good, a good big move, why not have liquidity recycling from here to Solana, BNBs, which, look, BNB. If for you the rotation of assets between Ethereum large cap, Bitcoin large cap, is not visible, then look at the mega altcoins from the previous cycle, not the big altcoins from this cycle. The big altcoins from the previous cycle. BNB, big altcoin from the previous cycle, it's going up a lot. XRP, big altcoin from the previous cycle, it's going up a lot. Solana, big altcoin from the previous cycle. Well, it went up a lot already before, it's already recovered well here. So don't think that the large caps we have now, typically SUI, Hype, things like that which went to ten billion, these are recent large caps. What I mean by that, I won't be able to explain it in 20 minutes because I'm not going to, I don't have the charts, I'd have to find them. But I'll send you a video in the Discord from a guy I really like on YouTube called The House of Crypto, maybe you know him, and who posted a video today that was quite interesting regarding this. Wait, I'll try to find it. I'll try to find it because it's nice. Tick tick tick tick. Here, I have it. Hop. So, those who understand English, go ahead, those who don't, still go and watch because, hop, I'm putting it in the media because you'll see the graphs, it's quite interesting. He was highlighting, and for that matter, I agree with him, he was highlighting, based on the last cycles, well, the last cycles, especially the 2021 cycle, how in fact the first large caps that benefit from the rise are large caps that were already there before. The new large caps should have a layer that would be just below the large caps in the asset rotation. And I found it very interesting because for now, it cannot be denied because he clearly shows the charts at the end of the video. He clearly shows the charts and it's visible, in fact, it's visible. It's as clear as day, and it's quite interesting. And there's a point that he doesn't mention, but that I've seen a lot with you, which I also find very interesting, is that in these three asset categories, there's always an aspect of trust. Remember ETH, you asked me, but see, but here ETH, what it can close, I'll tell you. For now, I told you it's very weak, but it has something that others don't have. One, it's the second biggest crypto. So big portfolios will come here to get exposure, and two, there's trust because there's a history. And it would be logical that, therefore, it's first, like Solana, like BNB, the big altcoins from the previous cycle that perform in the large cap category because there's a history. You have a super follow-up, it's a very beautiful, great new graph, it's still very new. It hasn't yet experienced a bear market. Solana has experienced bear markets. It collapsed to $8. It rose to almost, almost $300. So in terms of trust, it's different. It's a proven protocol. There's much more trust. There have been bugs, but everything has been fixed. Anyway, so young protocols like this one, which are already considered large caps, he highlighted, The House of Crypto, he highlighted that it wouldn't pay off right after, and that right after is precisely the phase we're entering. And for that matter, I agree with him. So I invite you to watch this video, it's nice, and besides, he has a good face, he has good vibes, there's good energy in his videos. So I like it. So I'll, I'll put it here if you didn't know it. It's still a big channel. He has almost 300,000 subscribers, but the guy is cool. I like him anyway. So, that's it for the options for ETH, it's not necessarily abnormal for it to be like that. We'll just look at the, it was the ETF from Grayscale. We'll look at the ETF from BlackRock. See what it says about BlackRock. So BlackRock, increase by the 26th as well. 35 points, 10% by tomorrow. Okay. October 3rd, it remains globally the same. December 19th, no, October 17th, it remains the same. Yes, not much. No big bets, prices on the BlackRock ETF, no big bets, prices. So the options on this ETF don't give us much. Okay. And then now that there are many ETFs that will be approved and so on, well, it will be an opportunity to see what bets are being made on options for many altcoins. Okay. So I think the [expletive] I think the live is good for now because it's funny, it makes me laugh, I'm sorry, but and yet I'm laughing, it's not dirty because I'm like you, my portfolio is also going down like yours. But it makes me laugh because it's cool. I like it. I like it because we know what's coming next and it's cool. Frankly, guys, the faster, I tell you, the faster we clean up, the better it will be because I find it much more annoying that it does nothing like this for a while or even worse, it does nothing or not much for 6 months like it did here. Remember, it was 6 months. March 2024 until the break in October. That's horrible. I prefer something that goes much faster like, well, like we had here, like we had here. It goes much faster, and for a few days, we drink heavily from the cup, and then we go crazy. But then in 3 days, it's recovered. I much prefer that. So go. If we have to go there, go now. Go now. We take it all at once and then we go back up immediately. Frankly, frankly, it's better. It's better to have a price capitulation than a time capitulation. Honestly, that's horrible. It's disgusting. I remember last year, I wasn't freaking out, but it was annoying, it was annoying, it was really annoying. When I was here, I started to say, "Okay, screw it, I'm trading." I'm trading here because you buy back here, here it recovers, and so I did what? I only did two moves, I think. I sold here, I bought back there, I sold here, I bought back there. That's it. But it's annoying when you're waiting for all of that. It's annoying. So go, get out of here. Go, if you need to go. And then at least, we'll have a big breath of fresh air right after, and we'll go higher. So, so, so, do we have any small questions? After, I'll take questions by email. Black Goku. Okay, nice. Personally, I see it badly.

A group of more or less 900 people remained disciplined for those who are used to managing. We know very well that it's impossible, especially when there's a lot of money behind it. So, what's quite interesting, the information you don't have and I'm giving it to you, you have the scoop on the information, is that quite a few things are going to change on Discord, on how it's going to happen. We're really doing everything, and when I say we, I mean within the company, because those who know, know. Those who don't know, I'm not at all alone in the company, there are four of us who make decisions. I'm not talking about the Praetorians. I'm not talking about the Praetorians who are the moderators of Discord with whom I discuss everything and whom I consult all the time before doing anything. So, to improve the service or otherwise internally within the company, we want to maximize proximity, service, and satisfaction. With the Praetorians, it's the same thing. And so, quite a few things are going to change with the opening of group 3, but I'll tell you about that a little later. But one thing that will change, I'm telling you right now, is that I've also noticed that the group's atmosphere is changing a little bit with people's increasing competence. That is to say, now that there are more and more people who are competent, who seem to be, I don't know what, there are also many more debates. That's cool. But the problem is that there are more debates with people who can't maintain themselves and talk normally, and it leads to clashes. And what will be interesting is that we will, in any case, open two groups. We will, in any case, open group 3 and group 4. And when group 3 opens, given the number of people waiting, I think group 3 will be filled in a week, and group 4 in a week too. We're going to separate things. We're going to put an experienced group with a group of noobs. We can't leave the two experienced groups, 1 and 2, together and put two groups of noobs together. Not possible. So group 1 will be assigned with group 3 in the general chat, and group 2 will be assigned with group 4. Like that, it makes a group, let's say, of old-timers, experienced people, with a group of new, less experienced people. And I think that will already be better for everyone. Like that, all the recurring questions, etc., etc., members of groups 1 and 2 will be able to explain, will be able to share their knowledge, will be able to explain things. So it's always better when one group leads another like that. And again, we won't put everyone in a general group, it's not possible. We can't have 900 people in a general group, that's no way. Never, never, never in life. So there will be two general discussions. Group 1, group 3, group 2, group 4. We are forced to split, otherwise it's an impossible mess. So, we will do that. And I think that will also calm things down quite a bit, because when you look generally, and I think you've noticed, there's always a blue and a pink who are bickering. It's rarely two pinks together, and it's rarely two blues together. Let's not lie about that. So, there's also a tug-of-war between groups. So like that, at least, we'll be calm, we'll all be present at the same time on the ATR radios, on the voice channels, on the workshops, so, I'm already giving you an answer regarding the workshops we'll do in voice, etc., etc. It will always be all together, but on the general level, we'll be two and two. So, that's good. Fuck. Excellent. Excellent. That one's not bad. Uh, tac tac tac tac. No, it's nice, I swear. Go ahead. Yes, yes, if you're talking about House of Crypto. No, honestly, it's cool. It's cool, and it's also nice sometimes to be on something a bit more, a bit less technical and more friendly. Honestly, it's nice. Uh, tac tac tac tac tac. Yeah, SPK. Yeah, well, yeah. Well, listen, you can have cleanups, but when you have cryptos that have reached their final zone, well, they've reached their final zone, you know. And there you go. So SPK, you see the box, the box has been drawn for weeks, guys. There you go, we're in it. So, well, after for now, it's attention, we're retracing a little bit, we'll see, but I can't imagine the market stopping its correction, pumping, and then SPK not taking off again when it's really in a zone. By the way, those who still want to ask me why we sold ATH here and didn't keep it, you can ask me, okay? Don't hesitate, don't hesitate to ask why we took profits at ATH. I'm bothering you, I'm bothering you. Uh, okay. Tac tac tac tac. Uh, yeah, honestly, here, you never know, there are so many people who also see the 106, 107, that it could stop before. Bitcoin is very teasing right now. Honestly, every zone like this huge stock zone right here is a zone in which we can reverse the market. So there's one here, we're in it, we'll see. There's one here, there's one here, and then the last one is there. So we'll see. In any case, there you go, guys, we're in it now. So please, don't make the mistake now of selling, okay? Don't make the mistake now of selling. These are not selling zones, these are buying zones. And even more so when you see a Bitcoin making lower lows and altcoins we're on, which are not making lower lows, they're struggling, that's normal. But there, when you see that, you shouldn't sell. These are buying zones, don't sell them, guys. You have to stay on them. We are in structures that are still very ascending, very bullish structures, long to resolve, certainly, but don't sell this, guys. Okay, so patience, just patience. I know it's a lot to ask, but patience. Uh, tac tac tac. So, so, hop, hop, hop, hop. I hope Bitcoin goes to zero, mentally. Yeah, some people are struggling. Some people are like Bruns Beast, like that, but there you go, Bruns, typically, well, after it's like that, but I think it will come with experience, it's with time, guys, you'll stop giving a damn, honestly, I think by repeating once or twice, max three times together this kind of thing where ultimately, well, it always goes as planned, it's yes, we can struggle, but in the end, we win. Honestly, you won't give a damn, you won't give a damn, except for those who bet money every end of the month and hope to have results because, well, that's not what we'll have. There you go. Uh, ATR, you do whatever you want. How do you talk? How do you speak badly? Uh, but I want to be in Frodon's group. Well, Frodon, if he subscribes very quickly to group 3, well, he'll be with group 1, with the pinks. Sorry, sorry, sorry. Uh, we'll see, we'll see. But it's already, yeah, it's crazy. Some people are already, they're already very popular. Uh, let's say 30 minutes to close. Okay, tac. We'll go into the group and then we'll just take questions by email and we'll be done. Uh, new question, ATR. Question from Jéromson: "What do you think of the observed lag of 74 days between the evolution of the money supply and that of Bitcoin?" Well, again, again, again, where is it? Where is it? No, so, I'll remove it. Uh, damn, I shouldn't have removed it. Wait, I shouldn't have removed it because I wanted to show you, I wanted to show you. Uh, are we, are we getting to it or not? Wait, I'll just see something. It was in, no, it was in daily. It was in daily. It was in daily. Hm. To see, maybe not. Okay, I said nothing, I'm removing it. Don't ask yourselves what it is. It's nothing at all. Pretend you haven't seen anything. Uh, global liquidity, again, there were, there were, there were many questions where people say, you know, the correlation, it's time, and it's true, it's proven, it's 90% of the time since the beginning of the bull run. In any case, we follow liquidity, but again, it's the same thing. There were people who said, "But look, Bitcoin topped here, we were already in a deep bear market while liquidity continued to rise." Global liquidity doesn't just flow into Bitcoin, it flows into everything, but really all assets. So what's very interesting and what you need to keep in mind, is that you need to have seen it. You need to have seen it to say that more and more liquidity is flowing into the market. That way, even when your asset like Bitcoin falls, well, at least you know, you're not in an environment where there's a drying up of liquidity, because then you're sure it will fall. So, the question that arises is why is there a lag? There's a lag because liquidity flows elsewhere first. Currently, it's flowing into gold, mainly. Gold, I, well, I remind you of its capitalization. Uh, no, I won't remind you because I don't know it by heart anymore, but in tens of trillions of dollars. So, where are we? Where is gold? There, it's there. Uh, guys, it's going in there, okay? For now, we saw the chart when gold makes an ascent like this and then marks a top, especially and always, and we saw it, it's here that again we have extreme confluences, it's that the rotation of these assets and these liquidities happens in September, early October. We saw on the 8-year cycle tops of gold, we're on it now, the top is this year for gold. We have a recycling of liquidities where we're going to move to a lower risk curve. So what we want to see is liquidity continuing to flow, because once it stops flowing into a market that is like this one in trillions of dollars and puts in, well, well, well. Well, just, just that, actually, just the rise we made here in how long since August 22nd. This in terms of cap, if I'm not mistaken, it's the entire crypto market. This is as much as the entire crypto market in terms of cap, because liquidity arrives, but once it tops out, it retraces, liquidity won't go back, it will just go elsewhere. And that's where our Bitcoin and others will be able to benefit the most. So, again, patience, and so necessarily, well, that's the result of saying the shortcut of saying "Ah, M2 is rising, Bitcoin is rising." No, it depends, it depends on which asset is booming again. And once that asset is booming, understand why. Why is gold booming? Because there's this narrative for now of re-evaluating gold reserves, that's one thing. Uh, there's no crisis narrative, and we'll finish with that, because there's nothing that justifies at the moment that we have a crisis, and I'll show you why, especially in relation to the move that's right here. There, this really gives you, with the VIX, how to say it, but especially this, if a crisis is brewing or not, while the VIX is more about market respirations, pure volatility. I'll come back to that in a few seconds, and I'll quickly note it before forgetting the move. Magnificent. But there, it's not because you have an M2 that's rising that everything rises with it. And especially if we look at something that is, that is interesting, it's right here, it's that liquidity is rising, but liquidity year after year, it makes higher highs, but here we are in a retracement phase. You see here, we are in a retracement phase. Uh, we'll soon have the new bullish wave, normally, because of rate cuts and so on, but you see that year after year, the chart doesn't say the same thing and has absolutely nothing to do with 2021, which is normal, because, well, a rate of zero also has its effect, you know. Q and zero rates have a big effect on monetary stimulation, but in terms of year after year, well, you see that we are on a chart that is bullish, that follows a stair-step dynamic like Bitcoin. So be careful with the charts you look at, they are not necessarily very telling, and there are shortcuts that are not the right ones. If phase 2 is finally postponed to the end of the year and phase 3 unfolds in the first quarter of 2026, which corresponds to the riskiest window, do you think it will be possible to anticipate the correction before the final rise? Will we have enough visibility? Yes, on this one, yes, we will have more than enough for two reasons. First reason, the data is almost certain. It's even just for a fiscal question, December, well, December, end of Q4, it corrects, but and the fiscal considerations are already enough, they are directly enough, but in addition to that, the altcoin season, as we should have it, in my opinion, October, November, we will already have a phase of gains that will be quite significant. We will already have a phase of gains that will be quite significant. And on this, however, we won't wait, we won't wait 1000 years. We'll take gains, good gains. We won't wait to reach 300% to take them, as soon as we reach, it depends on the strength of the rise, but I think we'll be able to easily take 80%, 100%, 110% in my opinion, it won't be a problem. And knowing that, we will, we will, we will anticipate. We will anticipate, and there you go. Because what's annoying about the crypto market, and what I tell myself I should do more and more, but that's a note to myself, is that what's annoying about this market is that even when you have good news, it doesn't necessarily go up. On the other hand, when you have bad news or just no news, it goes down. So, it's better over time, and I've always seen this, it's better to secure profits that are largely acceptable, meaning between 50% and 100% on the position. I'm not talking about 20%, I'm talking about 50% to 100% return. It's better to secure your gains, let go perhaps a little earlier, and wait. Especially when you see that corrections, in terms of timing, in terms of fiscality, etc., etc., arrive most of the time, it's better to do it, and we'll play that. So, there you go, I'm already giving you a small aspect of what we can do, but here you go. Uh, Atrent the road. What's in the image? If we consider Stark's TVL as an asset in itself, we observe a confluence of patterns by comparing the two circles. We are just before the rise in TVL. Yeah, well, listen, why not? Why not, again, this is always very H. It's always very difficult to predict this. DVL, it's, yeah, it's still something else. It's still something else. But why not? Why not? Why not? That during the last drop on the first cycle, it reminds me of a PO3. Yeah, me too, me too, me too. So we'll see. Uh, I'll just take the questions by email and talk about the move to finish. Uh, so, someone asked me a question about an analysis of a company called Capital B, eligible for PEA, PME. This is clearly outside the scope of the Discord subscription. So, unfortunately, I can give you feedback privately, but I won't talk about it now because it doesn't concern the majority of people. Uh, tac tac tac. So, there you go. Hi. Hi Ariid. Little question. We can clearly see that this year is special. It offered few opportunities for taking profits. Are there analyses that worked before and are now invalidated since the arrival of institutes? Uh, no, what didn't work before still doesn't work, and what worked before still works now. It's just the movements that are sometimes unpredictable and always hard to anticipate, and we can't anticipate everything. That's just, well, that's normal, guys. I can assure you that if I could anticipate everything, there wouldn't be an 80-buck subscription, and we'd be using x20 leverage all the time, and we'd all be millionaires. So, there you go. Uh, tac tac tac tac tac. So, wait, note. So, what's this? Hello TR, I'd like us to discuss the potential top of Bitcoin and, by effect of lag, that of altcoins. I already showed you these charts during a radio live, but we didn't go through the entire analysis. Uh, okay. I'll do, I'll do a private video on this, because tomorrow I won't do a YouTube video. I'll do a private video where I'll, I'll, I'll consider this because it's too long a question, unfortunately. Uh, okay, that's all I received by email. Okay, perfect. Last thing, there you go, that's the thing I wanted to show you, it was, hop there. There, the move, what is this? SFR, this is, yeah, this is the rate, this is the financing rate of banks, which is a bit different from the Fed's interest rates, and which is plunging lower than the Fed's interest rates. So this is the rate at which they can expose themselves and take credits. So it's good that it's falling faster. It means they can take more credit, and overall, there will be more monetary stimulation. But there will be a video made about this. So we'll see later. The move. So, the move, what is it? The move is, hop there, a bit like the VIX for those who know the VIX. What is the VIX? We'll put it right here. Where is it? It's an index that actually shows the volatility of the stock market. We're on the stock market, and when we have spikes right here, it means we have very volatile movements, but of crashes, not of rises, of crashes. There you go. And when it crashes, the VIX rises a lot. So there are traders who buy the VIX. Strategy, it's quite simple. When you reach this big range, well, you accumulate VIX contracts, and then it rises when there's a crash, it rises quite high. You can easily get 50%, let's not lie. I think there's a purchase limit for VIX contracts, but anyway, that's not what I would have shown here. The counterpart to the VIX, but for US Treasury bonds, is the MOVE. The MOVE, so which shows the volatility in terms of demand and supply of bonds. And what happens is that what you need to remember, and we'll put it with Bitcoin right here underneath. Where is it? It's here. What you need to remember with this, and which is quite interesting, so, wait, hop, there you go, is that when volatility rises a lot here at the bond level, it means that precisely there is uncertainty about what will happen in the market, in the economy, and that large institutions want to back up. They want to back up. So there's suddenly generally a lot of buying at the bond level right here, which are generally tbills, so bonds with maturities that are quite, quite short. But this translates, when it pumps, it translates precisely that economic actors are starting to believe that the economy is becoming a bit unstable, you know, there's danger, in short, there's danger, and positions are being secured. And very often, especially here, you can see the spike here also corresponds inversely to a strong sell-off in risk assets, because when the economy appears fragile to us, well, what do large portfolios do? They close the riskiest positions first. And generally, when we have a big spike in the MOVE, this big spike announces the bottom on risk assets when we are in a bull run. Attention, when we are in a bull run, there you go, because when we are in a bull run, bad news and announcements of bad news precisely cause liquidation spikes. People react too strongly to the market, and it crashes. However, when volatility in bonds starts to decrease, decrease, decrease, decrease, well, that's when again, it translates how? It translates into a sentiment from large portfolios that is as follows: everything is fine in the economy, everything is fine, and in the short term, there's no need to worry about the economy. And so, when the volatility level decreases, it's very bullish for risk assets. It's very bullish. It translates confidence from large investors, and we've also seen this with the charts of the money flowing into treasuries, into the Fed, and very large banking institutions. It's against this void because large banks, etc., don't see the point, at the moment at least, of hedging against a sharp market decline. That's not what they're pricing in. This means that's not what they're pricing in. Small rebounds mean it's mixed. It's very mixed, and these rebounds correspond to drops in Bitcoin. We can still see here, it's a drop in Bitcoin. There, since we've been dropping here, well, we have a trend that is quite bullish. And what's also interesting, and I put it where? I put it over there. Uh, what's interesting to note is when we have a divergence between the two. We have a good divergence. Well, no, we don't have a divergence, but we have a confluence between the two. Because when we have a confluence between the two, it means that generally one of them is lying between the two, and generally the one who is lying is the one right here, in favor of the one who is there. Here, I've boxed it, we had precisely volatility on bonds rising drastically, with a Bitcoin that, however, didn't do what it usually does. It didn't crash at that moment, it rose with it. So, despite this little uncertainty that's there, well, people are exposing themselves to Bitcoin, and we can assume that precisely once the uncertainty calms down, we will have an even stronger bullish resolution. Okay? And that's what we had. That's what we had here. Here, however, we are in total confluence. Well, we are in confluence. We are in this relationship of de-correlation. When one rises, the other falls. There, this rises, there's the correction peak on Bitcoin. End of correction, by the way, here, and then it falls, and Bitcoin rises, rises, rises. What's interesting to note is that precisely since then, we have a situation that is really, really under control. We have a situation that is really under control with a second, or even a third anomaly in the comparison of this index's prices with Bitcoin. First anomaly is the same as what we observed before. It's a rise in the MOVE, meaning that precisely economic actors are saying things are bad, with a rise in Bitcoin. Here, with the MOVE, what's interesting, again, there are analysts who play movements and trades with just this. They trade one against the other, and this is a reason to do so. They don't take other indicators. The person who was doing it, highlighting that Bitcoin was rising when it was supposed to fall at that moment, well, that once this is over, Bitcoin would have a bullish resolution, at least in the short term, and it did. It did here with a 6.20, 6.30%. What's interesting is that we have here, and this is what's super important to note, and you'll understand where I'm going. We have, I'd like to take the little arrow, because it's pretty. There you go, we have a drop, meaning that for large economic actors, things are good, the economy is not at risk, and there's no reason to de-risk, broadly speaking. However, we also have this. So, which one is lying, the two? Which one is lying? The one who is lying is him, our dear friend Bitcoin. Because this is much more powerful, much more powerful than Bitcoin. Okay? The bond market, the way it works, the way it influences the entire US economy and even the global economy is infinitely more powerful than Bitcoin. And so, when you really have a period like this where we're attacking the lows, meaning that if we look at market sentiment, people are even more sure here that the economy is doing well than in 2021. You see? So we're on something like this, and there's a drop. And so the question is, why is an asset like Bitcoin, which should attract crazy speculation, correcting here, while the situation is leveling off and mentalities are risk-on? Why do we have this on September 25th? Because we have precisely a market manipulation phase where there's liquidity to be found, where the interest is not to institute a bear market. The interest is to grab very large orders lower before reversing this market. The interest is there. The interest is in this famous asset rotation in which we are living between late September and early October, which we already experienced last year, which we also experienced in 2017, which we experienced in 2013, which we experience all the time. All the time, all the time, all the time. But if you want to have the information that the economy is doing well for now, at least in the eyes of economists and those who bet on this market, you have a very, very good indicator here. Take the MOVE, don't take the VIX, okay? Because the VIX, again, let's repeat, is just volatility on the stock market. That's all. So when it crashes, the thing goes up, that's all. The MOVE really indicates to you if there is really fear and panic at the market level. And here, there is zero fear, zero panic. We are at the lowest levels since the beginning of the 2023 bull run. Okay. So since the beginning of the 2023 bull run, the major market players have never been so sure that the economy was stable. We have GDP that will convince retail. We have ISM that, we saw it, will rise well next week normally, and that's what could give the starting signal. We have what it takes, and give a chain will also. We have what it takes. And so it's not about getting wiped out by a movement of fear, by a mentality, a psychology that puts you in trouble. It's not the time. So don't get worked up on Discord, etc. Stay strong. Okay, we are strong if we are not weak. Uh, question from surfer. Will you also indicate when to sell certain traditional assets like the S&P? Uh, no. But after, the thing is that again, it's, it's, in fact, what's a bit annoying is that the group here is a crypto group. It's a crypto group. I'm not here to, in any case, have a bull run of stocks on the stock market, on the Nasdaq, on the S&P 500, on the Russell 2000. I'm not here for that in a bull run. We are here for crypto because we go where it's most speculative. We'll make the most gains. However, I always tell you, in a bear market, yes, guys, traditional market, we'll be on it too. We'll be on both. So yes, then yes. And the problem is that there's a question by email that concerned, for example, I'll tell you again, wait, what is it, what is the company? Wait, where is the company? I know it, I even know it. Damn, I can't find it anymore. It's okay. A company, there you go, someone asking to analyze a company. Well, sorry, but I, the company, I don't know it. There you go, Capital B company. Capital B, I don't know what it is. I don't even know what kind of thing it is. But again, I can't do that, unfortunately. I can't do that. And, she's there, maybe it's on Hornx Paris. Oh wow! Oh my god! What is this thing? Anyway, so there you go. After, you know my opinion, my general opinion for all those who know it, is that if you have a PEA, you're on the risky traditional market. For me, what I would do is take out your PEA, take out all of that and put it on crypto because I, I, I know the result at the finish line. What's between now and the finish line, I can't say with certainty, but the result at the finish line, it's like the hare and the tortoise. I, I, we already know the result, so, and it will be infinitely better than your PEA. So, generally speaking, I would tell you to take out your PEA, guys. Take out your savings account. It's crap. You shouldn't have this thing. It's useless. Everything that, everything that, I'm sorry, I'm not a competitor, but everything that the state or banks offer you, they win. Not you. They do. They win. So, there you go, your PEA, you're getting rid of things, guys, but you don't even know what they can do with it. Anyway, we can do a video on that too. But there you go. However, the big problem is that if you don't do it, I can't tell you, well, your PEA, I don't know what it's made of. I don't know if you have a stock, again. Well, there, they're offering me a stock, it's a listed thing on Renex Paris, I don't know this thing, I see this thing. Well, we can be in a bull run on risk assets. Well, look at this thing, this thing hasn't been in a bull run since June. So possibly, I'll tell you yes, yes, I'll give you the exit points too for risk assets, but I don't know this thing. I don't even know you have it in your portfolio, and it was, it was, maybe not at the top that you should have sold. Maybe there was news about it, but in any case, structurally, that's where you should have sold. Except that I just don't know what you have, and that any company can do anything. So, so unfortunately, no, I can't advise you on when to sell, but I'll tell you generally, if you have a PEA or something, take advantage of the big sales now. Take advantage of the big sales. Take, take, take. There you go. Uh, B copé. Yeah. Uh, strk, there's an Andra, he didn't do a thing on it. He didn't do a PDF on it. If he didn't do it, we'll put it on the list because Andra, Andra is very, very good. He loves making PDFs, and then he'll make us a little PDF. But I think he did a PDF and I validated it. I'll check with him because, in any case, he submitted one to me, so maybe I haven't validated it yet, but I'll validate it very soon so he can put it in the community. Everything is in there, and we'll look at it to see what's happening. Uh, when the big bear market happens, what are the consequences on the price of gold and silver, everything that falls in a bear market of debt, unfortunately, is that people have no more money. It's not even that they want to put their money on a safe haven asset, they just don't have money anymore. So gold, they'll sell it. There you go. Uh, when do you think you'll open access to group 3, and regarding the arrival of new members, do you think it's a dream or not to hope for up to 2000 people, to manage Discord, etc.? Yes, maybe it will be a dream, maybe. We'll see. I have faith in you. I have faith in all of you, and maybe it's a mistake to have faith in humanity. I'm like that. No, I don't have faith in humanity, but I have faith in you. There, it's different. So, prove me right. And if I'm wrong, then, well, we'll be victims of collective stupidity, and then, well, we'll do it differently. There you go, that's all. I'm saying it very bluntly, but that's all we could do. Uh, TR, to determine a top on an altcoin, what convergence of three indicators? I'm sorry, that makes me laugh. What convergence of indicators? You see, it's not even about which convergence of indicators, you see. Here, they're asking me to take only three or, let's say, four. Combine them. You can imagine, I can't do that live. I can't do that live, but I'd be happy to do something to show you. I'd be happy to do something to show you, but I can't do it right now, unfortunately. Sorry, and this is the public group, and there you go. Uh, hop, he's looking at that. Okay. Uh, don't publish. Okay. So, we'll publish it. We'll publish it. Okay, guys, 8 PM, I'm stopping here for today. I hope you enjoyed it. I think it came at a good time when we have this. I think the live came at a good time. So thank you Bitcoin for waiting for the live before doing that, or not doing it tomorrow after the live. Okay, so we're strong, we don't get upset on Discord, please, we stay calm, and it's September 25th. Remember these terms well. All those who are afraid now and who will do stupid things now will regret it. Note this, really note it. Cut a part of the live, put it next to you. Those who sell now or who don't make the right moves now will regret it not too long from now. So don't be one of those people who live with regrets. Don't be one of them. There you go. Be one of those who say, "I went through death and I survived, and what's more, I gained extra." That's good, like that. Okay, guys. Have a good evening. Don't forget that I love you. I have confidence in you. So please, let's, let's be careful on Discord, respect, good humor, constructive debates, that's all we want. That's all we want. The rest, if we want to talk shit, we leave it to other communities. Bye, everyone. Take time with your family, take care of your loved ones, take care of yourself. Big, big kisses, and see you on Discord. Bye bye.

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LIVE JEUDI 25 septembre 2025

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