Transcription
Hello, good morning everyone. I hope you are doing well. Today, market review, we will of course talk about BTC, we will look at the weekly and monthly charts. Is it rather bullish or not? We will prepare our trading week, see if there are any setups on the short term that are triggering. I will simply tell you my opinion on the coming week. We will of course talk about Ethereum and we will look at altcoins that have been requested for analysis. I have noted MKR, LTC and STX. So, before I start, I remind you for those who have not yet uh joined the CRT Investor program, you have for Black Friday €200 offered by clicking directly on the first link in the description, a program that will allow you to be comfortable, whether we are in a bull market or a bear market, you will know how to make the best decisions. At some point, those who missed this last bull market, who had bad entries with entries that were too high, who chose the wrong altcoins, who also did not take their profits, must question themselves, look at the mistakes that were made and not repeat them for the next bull market. There is no harm in making mistakes, but you have to realize them and correct them. And be careful, just because you make a mistake doesn't mean you won't make it again. And all that. I also made these mistakes years ago, and that's why I offer this type of program which will simply allow you to be 100% autonomous, to build a portfolio that will work whether we are in a bull market or a bear market, to manage your cash crypto balance well, to invest well, to enter at the right time, to exit at the right time and above all I don't leave you alone, I accompany you whether it's via a private group, whether it's via free lifetime updates with the addition of new courses, since the crypto market is constantly evolving, so you always have to add courses. I even share my portfolio with you inside with the cryptos I own. And you also have personalized follow-up by private message where I accompany you. You can ask me your questions, have check-ins, etc. This is the big, big added value of this program. I don't leave you alone, I accompany you so that you are 100% autonomous. So there you go, if you want to take advantage of the €200 offered for the current Black Friday, don't hesitate to click on the first link in the description.
So, I'm starting here with BTC. Before that, we have some economic announcements just before having here in a few days, in 10 days now, the next meeting. OK, interest rate decision. For now, we are pricing in a rate cut, we'll see depending on the figures that will come out this week. We have the PMI which is the uh the 1st of December, OK, which is tomorrow, and we have on Friday here, Core. OK, so all these are figures, PMI services on Wednesday the 3rd. All this, as I said, are figures that will simply allow us to have even better visibility for the next meeting of the next FOMC, here, the Fed meeting in 10 days. This will clearly allow us to project ourselves further. What is being priced in is a rate cut. OK? There has been quite a bit of volatility between whether we would have a rate cut or not. That's why the market has moved a lot recently. But in any case, we hope to have a market that at least consolidates, to have a confirmation of this rate cut. And what we will also need to see is the tone of the chairman. Will it be reassuring or not? It's true that in the last meetings he hasn't committed much. He doesn't dare to talk too much, and it's more like before. OK, where he really had a clear direction and stuck to it. Now, he's playing both sides. After all, it's normal, there's hesitation between cutting rates or not, even for the next meeting, January 28th, well, we'll have to see if we will have a rate cut, no rate cut, or on the contrary, another increase if we cut rates on December 10th. It's very unlikely that if we have a rate cut here, we will increase rates afterwards. It's not possible and it will be a mess on the markets if it happens, but it's possible to have no rate cut in 10 days and again no rate cut on January 28th. Well, in any case, we will see what the Fed tells us, but I remind you that it is interest rates that are currently driving the market and all economic announcements simply impact rates. So, it's a bit like a circle that will be put in place, the different economic announcements we will have. Some will be important, let's say, they have one star, OK, one, others will have two, others three, etc. All this will have an impact on rates. OK? And this will have an impact on the markets, whether it's risk-on markets or risk-off markets.
Now, regarding BTC, what does this change? We will have the weekly close coming up. A weekly close that is simply a rebound. We were in a downtrend on the weekly for me, the fact of having gone below this level and below this level, we have a confirmation of this downtrend which confirms that we have an inversion of our momentum. We are no longer making lower lows and higher highs, but we are indeed making lower lows and lower highs. OK, so there you go, for me this is just a rebound. We don't have a bullish weekly close like for example this type of close which is an impulsive candle that breaks this high and reclaims this level. For now, we have a close as I want to say, quite classic. The monthly close for now remains neutral. OK. Yes, we have a break of this level. We could see this as bearish. Now, I see it as nothing changing in our trend since we continue to make lower lows and higher highs as long as the monthly close does not exceed this level. Otherwise, yes, it would be quite bearish and we would have a high chance of going back to test $50,000. So there you go, in the long term, no big close and no big change on that side. Now, as I said, it's mainly on the short to medium term that I am currently working the market much more, looking for setups, looking for simply configurations that will allow me to enter positions. I am still cautious at this level. I told you this recently. Why? Because we are at a resistance level. OK. And there are two plays, two plays to make for me here. Either we have a break-and-pullback here. OK, we can look for a long at this level to revisit $99,000. Or we reject now and in that case, there's a high chance of going to test the lower extremity at $85,000. In any case, we might enter a consolidation phase here, it's possible. I find it hard to believe that the market will put a V-bottom here and go to the moon. Often, this type of structure is meant to be retested. Whether it's now, it can be later, nothing prevents us from doing that and retesting it later. But in any case, for me, it's too early to talk about a bottom. And if I put moving averages, yes, the short-term moving averages are rather encouraging. We are back above the 1-hour, above the 15-minute. Now, we are below the 4-hour and we are also below the daily tunnel. So there you go, you have to be patient and you have to be patient. I see many people trying to overtrade, to trade, trade, look for setups and setups. And the problem is that often it's not even the volatility, a huge volatility that impacts traders the most, it's when the market does nothing. And I saw it during this phase here, for those who don't know, who haven't lived through this period, traders at that time were crazy. Really, traders, investors, imagine, this phase lasted 8 months. 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 months. 8 months of sideways movement here between very small bands on BTC. OK, we have 30%, that's not huge. 8 months where we went quite quickly from $25,000 to $72,000 in less than 8 months, and then we lateralized for a long time. All the new people arrived because they heard BTC, it's a new ATH, and they experienced 8 months of range. And there, I'm telling you, many lost money because they don't know how to be patient and they always have to trade, always look for opportunities, always look to position themselves. And the problem with this kind of configuration is that you lose much more money than when there's a drop like this, at best. And I'm warning you because I don't know what will happen, but if we enter a bigger range here, OK, we do this, for example, you have to stick to your plan. You can't start saying I'm changing my strategy, I'm changing everything. And there, there's the beginning of the end. I know, many will say "OK, very good, that's it, new strategy, I'm going to put an RSI here, I'm going to put a MACD, I'm going to put this, I'm going to put that." No, that's not how it works. And if you proceed this way, you will just ruin yourself. OK? Don't start wanting to create strategies, wanting to create new setups. Now, you can create new strategies, there's no problem, you can backtest. But when I say be careful not to create a new strategy, it's in the mode that the market is slow, you don't have any setups executing, that's it, you find a strategy and you use it the same day. No, a strategy must be backtested, you need to do starts, you need to have an Excel file for 100, 200 trades, see if it works, you need to know it well. You know it well because there can be a strategy, there can be, OK, both work well, you put them together, it no longer works because each strategy is a bit personal. This is a fact. Some traders who are starting a few weeks, a few months ago will tell me "But what is he talking about? If this strategy works, why wouldn't it work for me?" Because a strategy is personal, it's like that, it's unique to each person. And and yes, be careful, be careful because I'm seeing it again a bit lately. We have a market that is a bit calmer in the short term. There was quite a bit of volatility and that has calmed down. And I see some who are impatient because we are a bit in a zone of indecision, where are we going to go lower? Are we going to rebound? We are in a phase of indecision. You see, it's not like we are in a strong uptrend where we know there's a higher chance of a continuation upwards. Here, we are in a phase of indecision and many don't know what to do, they panic. And that, from a psychological point of view, can kill you, and overtrading kills you. It's not because you trade more that you will earn more money. That's something you need to take into account and be very careful about. As I say, I'm doing prevention. My goal is not to tell you what to do. I'm not saying this to annoy you, OK? I'm just saying this to help you, to protect you. We are on the same team. There's no "Yes, I'm alone in my corner, I trade and everyone else is my enemy." No, not at all. Otherwise, I wouldn't make videos like I do every day. I wouldn't help more than 400, 500 traders that I've helped. No, absolutely not. My goal, as I said, is to accompany you, to give you maximum advice. When I say this, apply it. I'm not saying this to annoy you. And sometimes it's better to sit on your hands than to trade, than to invest because the market will just punish you if you don't have a strategy you trust that works. So there you go, a bit of psychology, I like to do it, it doesn't hurt, especially for some people. OK. And it's not negative, when I say some people, it's just that we all started at some point and well, you have to accept it. As I said, so plan for this week, either we have a break-and-pullback, target 99, or we reject here and target $85,000. Tomorrow, what I will monitor, we will review it together, will be the pivot points. Why? Because new weekly pivot points, new daily pivot points. I remind you, it's this indicator, this tool which is simply daily, weekly, monthly pivot points which are levels calculated based on the data of the previous session, whether it's a weekly session, a daily session, etc. This will allow us to calculate new pivot points that are very relevant. We see it well, the weekly pivot point acted as support. See this monthly pivot point, we came to perfectly rely on it. So these are always intermediate levels that simply allow me to make buy or sell decisions. So, we will have a good review. That's why I prefer to prepare my trading week tomorrow with, well, when I say tomorrow, when we see these new points with the closes that will come, because it will allow me to determine even more precise intervention zones and I really prefer to sit down tomorrow morning and say "OK, how did we close? Look at the new daily and monthly pivot points we will have and know OK where the market can potentially react." For those who want to add this indicator, you have either the default indicator that I use, DWYP, which is this one. Otherwise, if you don't want to bother, you put here Multitimeframe Vegas, you take tunnel and pivot points. And there you go, I didn't want to open my page, I wanted to do this. And here you have everything added. You see, you have the Vegas tunnels that I use plus the pivot points, OK, telling you the main pivot point, resistance one, support one, and you can configure everything here. You can remove the daily pivot points if you don't want to see them. You can put resistance 2, support 2, it's up to you to see. And there, everything is drawn, whether it's monthly, weekly, quarterly, etc. I use both. Sometimes I just use one to not have the Vegas tunnels and make it more visual, mainly for you. But there, I invite you to add it for those who want to. And tomorrow morning, sit down, look at the new pivot points that will appear and say "Very good, well, these are intervention zones, this is also a support zone, a resistance zone, and this is how we simply create a grid on our chart and it allows us to be ready." OK? Uh, there you go. In any case, on BTC, I remain cautious as I told you from an investment point of view. Here, we have mainly talked from a trading point of view, from an investment point of view. I had slightly repositioned myself around $86,000 because we had dropped quite quickly and I put a small amount of cash here that I had exposed during this phase, and I still have orders here and here that are ready to be executed in case of a dump, in case the market goes down, whether it's in 2 weeks, whether it's in 3, 4 months, it doesn't matter to me, these are buying zones, whereas here we are rather in selling zones or even higher. This is how we proceed when there are significant market drops of 30%, 40%, 50%, 60%, 70%, we buy back, and when there are increases of 30%, 40%, 50%, 60x2, we sell. OK, that's how it works. No need to overcomplicate it with BTC. We go down, we buy, we go up, we sell. Easier said than done, but in any case, that's how I operate. I don't try to look for X10, X20. A +50% is already a very good performance. And be careful, many of you are biased because you only know cryptocurrencies. But making a +50% on a position is a very good performance. OK? Look at traditional finance, there isn't as much volatility, although it depends on the times, but not as much as in crypto. So be careful not to be biased by those who will make you believe that they triple their trading capital every month. No, I'm telling you clearly, a real trading capital with a professional approach, making 3%, 4%, 5% monthly performance is an excellent performance. OK. At the end of the month, coming out with 40%, 50% performance is a good performance. People who tell you they make x10 on their trading wallet are liars. OK? Maintaining this kind of performance annually is an excellent performance. Anyway, do the math. The person who tells you they made x10 on their wallet annually, well, calculate after 20, 30 years the capital growth. That's when you'll realize that it's not possible and that they are a liar.
Alright, I'm moving on to Ethereum. Ethereum, where are we? Well, we've come back to test this support level of $2800-$3000 as I said. We have a rebound underway. We will also have a weekly close, a monthly close. A monthly close that is quite bearish since we are reclaiming this zone. This support level which has now acted as resistance, we broke it, which was supposed to act as support. We see well on the weekly, we consolidated above, but the bearish pressure was too strong. We simply reclaimed this level. We are consolidating around $2800-$3000, it's a good zone to place a bottom. Now, the weekly close for me is just a rebound. If we had closed above the previous one, I would have said "OK, there might be a bullish signal and we can revisit $3700, even $4000." But for now, we just have a simple rebound that doesn't specifically indicate that a bottom is in place. Yes, it's like this type of rebound. There you go. Is it because of that, it's off to the moon? Uh, no, absolutely not. We are just on a simple rebound. When I look at the daily, it's the same, we just have a V-bottom rebound. Generally, as I said, it's often retested to turn into a W. It's quite rare that we go to the moon from here. If I put moving averages, well, it's pretty much the same. We have the 15-minute and the 1-hour acting as support, but we still have the 4-hour pointing downwards and the daily tunnel pointing downwards. Same as BTC, the weekly pivot points will also need to be monitored. See, again, these are very interesting levels. Weekly pivot point acting as support at this level. Here, it also serves as a pivot for intraday or swing trading. You see, we have 3% to 4% rebounds, that can clearly be taken. See the monthly pivot point here, we came to rely on it. Weekly pivot point at this level. At this level as well, see monthly pivot point, it was a major resistance zone here. And there, monthly pivot point as well. Hop, if I remove this, I see well, we were doing back and forth between this monthly pivot point and this one. Hop. And inside, pivot points that can also act as resistance. See perfectly. Here, the top is perfectly made on a weekly pivot point. I remember a weekly pivot point that put a wick exactly on it where I took a long. So, we had this monthly pivot point here and I don't remember where it is. Uh, I don't remember. Exactly. Ah, it's this one. I remember, I took a trade at this level, I think. Yes, this weekly pivot point here, we perfectly put a bottom on it. I took a long. So, it's quite rare, but you see, these are often levels where we can take longs, same at this level. Now, it doesn't always work and it's not because we have a weekly pivot point that it's 100% sure we will go there. Yes, this one was never touched, this one as well. But as I said, these are always intervention levels to watch. And there, when we have our weekly close, our monthly close, we will have new weekly pivot points, new monthly pivot points that we will simply have to monitor. Uh, there you go for Ether. We will look at the US market together because it has recovered well recently. There has been a very good reclaim on the S&P 500. We are back above 6800. For me, what the S&P 500 is doing here is quite bullish. There's a high chance of hitting a new ATH. For me, it was a bit of our polarity. I told you we are trading below 6800, it's bearish, we go above 6800, it's rather bullish, depending on the figures that will come out this week, of course, the next FOMC meeting will be very important and will clearly create volatility, but this is where we see that dips like this are quite bought back. When I put moving averages, we had lost the 4-hour tunnel which led me to think it was quite bearish and that we had a high chance of reaching the daily tunnel. Well, the market recovered before. You see, this is where we see that trading is not something that works 100%. You are not right 100% of the time. You see, every time we went to test the 4-hour tunnel, I told you it was a good opportunity for a long. Here too, good opportunity for a long. So we can be right once, twice, three times, four times, five times, six times, seven times, and here be wrong. Is it the end? Does it mean I'm bad and everything? No, absolutely not. This is where the importance of having what? Risk management. Because if I'm wrong, if I'm right here, I'm right here, I'm right here, I'm right here. And here, I make cash. And here, I make cash. But here, I'm wrong and I have such bad risk management that the money I lose here is so significant that it compensates for all the gains I made here. It's useless. And this is where having good risk management is important, because if here I have a gain, a gain, a gain, a gain, and a gain here, and here I take a loss, well, it's not a big deal because proportionally with good risk, good risk management here, I manage perfectly. Uh, there you go for the S&P 500. Regarding the Nasdaq. Well, it's globally similar. We have a chart that, well, yes, is similar. We are going above 25400. We see that it's a bit like the 6800 here of the S&P 500. A bit behind, however, but similarly, the 4-hour which acted as support, we lost it. OK, we almost went to test the daily tunnel and here we reclaimed it. So for me, we can go make a new ATH here unless we start to have an inversion of our dynamics, of course. You shouldn't be stupid, if you see a reversal pattern, you shouldn't say "Oh no, it's sure we're going to the ATH." So it depends on the setups you have, but for long-term investment, I remind you, these are assets, we are much too high, it's better to wait for drops of at least 15-20% like we had in March-April last year.
Regarding the altcoins that were requested for analysis, I have MKR here. I'm going to the weekly. Hop. Watch the video I made yesterday for those who haven't seen it. It's very interesting here. Here are the altcoin gems to buy. Don't make these mistakes. It's a video that might not interest everyone at first glance. You'll say "Yeah, OK, I don't care. Tell me what's going to happen with BTC." Except that this video is very important because you are heavily invested in altcoins that are no longer performing. OK, that's a fact. And you see, for example, I'll take the case of MKR, 2021, we made a new ATH, we did nothing in 2024 here. Yes, we had a performance, that's a fact. Except when I look at MKR's performance, we are around here from the lowest point to this point, about 670%. Very good. When I look at BTC's performance, we are at how much? We are here at about 690%. Let's say globally the same performance. But is it interesting to position on MKR, to have a similar performance to BTC, but we take much more risk by investing in MKR. Why? Because MKR can disappear tomorrow, it won't impact BTC. However, if BTC disappears, it will really impact Maker. OK? So when you invest in an altcoin, you take more risk than on BTC. You must have a significant return on the other side, of course. Now, on MKR, what I see is globally a big range with here, we can talk about an excess, but we have a big lateralization phase here. Yes, we have come back to test a very good localization zone, our neckline of this W pattern. At this level, we have come back to test a first buyer rejection, a second buyer rejection with a very good weekly close that we have on Maker. That's a fact with a nice engulfing. We are in a good zone to look to position ourselves. And if we put a bottom here, well, we can put a Fibonacci. Hop, we put a Fibonacci, highest point, lowest point. 0.382 is a good zone. In addition, from a price action point of view, we are at a resistance zone here. Clearly, we see it well. Good resistance zone. And then it's to go look for the 0.618. We also have a good zone to potentially reject because we have good confluence, whether it's from a price action point of view or on our Fibonacci retracement. We have a good rebound bottom. I wouldn't be surprised to have a correction with a pullback because we are still in a downtrend. We see it well, the highs, highs, highs here are still getting lower. Either we do this, OK, that would be good. Or we make a W structure here. But for now, we remain in a bearish momentum. If I put moving averages, we have regained the 4-hour but we see that the daily is pointing downwards. But it's true that it's an altcoin that is rather good, that stands out given the performance of altcoins this week. It's a crypto that can be considered strong. And it's better to position oneself at a lower extremity than at an upper extremity. Now, we see that there is a major resistance here. So if you are looking for longs at the lower extremity, taking a partial TP in this zone can be good. And then, there are two major resistance zones on Maker, it's this one and that one. If we start to break this level, there's a high chance of going to test $4000. We break $4000. High chance of making an ATH. Now, we are not there yet. There you go, I'm just telling you the targets, objective by objective. For now, in any case, we are at a support level. See, just lines are enough. No need for 40,000 indicators. Here, we have three levels. Well, we look to position ourselves according to the levels we are at.
Next, analysis of LTC. So, LTC, hop, I talked about it yesterday in this video. For me, LTC is not an incredible project given the performance it has had in 2021, 2023, 2024, 2025, it has done nothing. We are still in this lateralization phase. Either we break $125 and yes, then there will be a clearly bullish signal. We will have a high chance of going to test $280, which is this high. Now, as long as we don't break this level, well, it's simply a range. OK. So we can do ping pong. The upper extremity, a good zone to look for shorts. The lower extremity, a good zone to look for longs. And and there you go, we can simply do ping pong between the two. So it will depend, of course, on whether you have a setup that executes or not. Where are we currently? Well, we are in a bit of the worst place. Why? Because we are in the middle of a range. In the middle of a range, there's nothing to do. Either we wait to go back to test the lower extremity as I said, or to go back to test the upper extremity. But the middle of the range, well, it's a bit where everyone positions themselves. See, I go on Binance, I look for my volume profile here. Here in the tool, volume profile, I draw my range. What do we see? We are in the interesting zone either at the level of the value area high, or at the level of the value area low. But in the value area here, the value area which represents 70% of the volume traded, it's not a good zone for someone looking to do range trading because we have a risk-reward, it won't be interesting. On a range, if you position yourself at the lower extremity, for example here, you have a clear invalidation. The invalidation is closing weekly below my range, I exit, and you see, I have an interesting reward even to go test the value area high. Here, I have 2.5 points. However, if I position myself in the middle of the range, well, it's catastrophic. There, I don't have an interesting reward. That's why you have to be careful with your entries. But for me, LTC in the long term is not a good investment.
And the last crypto, I have STX here. Uh, STX, hop, here. Well, it's ugly. Yes, it's ugly. It's a crypto that is not to be held for me. We remain in a bearish momentum. We are breaking down. We have retraced all the rise that happened in 2023, 2024, even though we had a very good performance. And that's why, as I told you in yesterday's video. Be careful, these types of cryptos can have a very good performance, but they are not cryptos to hold. They are not cryptos where you will say "I'll keep it for 3, 4, 5, 6 years." No, 1 year, a few months, yes, there's performance to be made. Even on rebounds like this, you see, there's enough to recover a x2. But in the long term, if you say "Yes, it stays here in my wallet and I'll have a better performance than BTC, that's false." Because if I take STX USDT BTC USDT, you see, there are phases of glory, there are phases where STX is strong but it lasts 1 month here. It will last a few months, you see. Let's say 3, 4 months, but in the long term, it will be outperformed by BTC. So no, currently it's not a good idea to position oneself. We are still in a downtrend. You see, for example, I'd rather take a long here on MKR, which we saw just before, than on STX. STX, moving averages are clearly pointing downwards. We are trading below the 4-hour, below the 1-hour, below the 15-minute. BTC and ETH have moved back above the 1-hour. STX hasn't even managed to do that. So that shows us the selling pressure we are experiencing. And as long as we don't have a bottom, as long as we don't have a reversal pattern that sets up, nothing will happen. OK, so yes, you have to be patient. It might be a crypto that won't make a new ATH, maybe a crypto that has even broken its low. In any case, if you want to position yourself on this type of altcoin, you have to be patient, you have to be patient to have a better structure that sets up like this type of structure. See, here, it's already more interesting. You have an entry that is much more professional, but now it's too early and besides, we don't know how BTC will evolve. So it's taking even more risk.
There you go, I'm done. I'll leave you with this. I remind you for those who want to take advantage of the offer on the Crypto Investor program, it's by clicking on the first link in the description. I wish you a very good evening and I'll see you tomorrow for another video.