Transcription
Hello to all of you. I hope you are doing well. We are back for the Thursday, October 2nd brief. It is 11:35 AM. Today, we will talk about economic news, the long and short ratio, funding open interest, and liquidations. We will look at what the whales are doing, finishing with a technical analysis of Bitcoin. But before that, we will look at what happened yesterday. We are on a pump on Bitcoin. So I haven't called a short yet. We haven't had a short setup yet. So clearly, there's no point in looking for a short. On the other hand, we hit the H4 breaker block that we had right here in the zone of the entire movement. So we are entering a zone in which it is advisable to be careful. We can be in a zone in which one should not FOMO, given that we can very well reverse, given that we have taken the liquidity that was to be taken just above this zone. And therefore, consequently, we can very well have a rejection now. If we had a rejection, if we had a short setup, I think I would open a short. Now, here we are, we see that on H1 all the FVGs are holding. We are clearly on perfect holds of the FVGs. We are validating break structures. We have no change in trend at all, whether in M15 or H1. So that means that here, for example, we had a change in trend in M15, but it's not clean. We are not on a perfect top either. So clearly, it doesn't make me want to short at all right now. So there you go, you just have to not get caught, not FOMO, especially. You really have to wait for a perfect setup. Currently, we don't have it. And, tell yourself one thing, even if I have to wait for an H1 setup to be able to open a short, it will come. In my opinion, it's not even my opinion, it's that when we have to have a setup, we logically have something like this forming, in which we really have a change in trend. We come back to test the FVG, that's where we enter short, and then it goes completely. So you have to take your time, you don't have to rush. There is time. Even if, you know, we missed this long, it's not a big deal, there will be other movements. But in any case, there is a short that will be attempted, I think, if we get a setup. But for now, that's not the case. We will look at the data and so on to see how it's shaping up. In terms of economic news, today, we have nothing at all. We simply had a public holiday in China and a public holiday in India. But otherwise, we have nothing at all. We will still look at company results in case there is anything interesting. So it's the results. Hop, we will look by filter to have only the important things. Do we have interesting results today? No, we have nothing at all. We have Tesco, so clearly it's not necessarily what is impactful. Even this week, we will see LVMH, but you know, it's not very interesting results for the markets. In terms of crypto bubble, what we see is that ZEC is up 56% today, which is really interesting. We also have SPX up 18%. We have altcoins performing quite well. We have others, however, M is down 18%, but it was on a good performance in the previous weeks. So clearly, we are seeing altcoins regaining some color. Regarding Aster, in my opinion, there will be a long to be attempted when the airdrop is distributed. If there is no real dump on it. In my opinion, it would be more interesting to open a long in an H4 FVG. So we will see that later. Regarding funding open interest, I wanted to show you this by zooming out a bit from this entire pump. We clearly see that the majority of the operations that are open are rather longs. We clearly see, for example, here we had an increase in open interest. Here, we see that it is clearly accumulated, accompanied by an increase in funding. So that means that on this movement, it was essentially longs that were opened. We also see here an increase in open interest with an increase in funding. Which means that here, it is also essentially longs that were opened. We see here, so this was particularly short, so in this zone. So we see that in this zone, there was a decrease in funding with an increase in open interest. So it was clearly shorts that were opened. But otherwise, when we look here, all the big increases we have are accumulated with an increase in open interest. We have an increase in open interest here, increase in funding. We have an increase in open interest here with an increase in funding. Then here, we see that we have an increase in open interest, same thing with an increase in funding. Here too, we had an increase in open interest with a majority decrease in funding. Which means that here, it's mostly shorts, but everything that happened here is mostly longs, and therefore, we are accumulating a lot of liquidations below. We clearly see it around $113,537. We have a lot, a lot of longs to seek. So clearly, what I think is that we can come and seek a bit lower at one point or another. If we look at 24 hours, we see that liquidations were taken above, and we have liquidity clusters around $116,380. If we look at a week, they have changed their way of doing things a bit on Coinglass. We see that the bulk of the work is at $108,415, and there is not much left to seek above. So you really have to be careful about this retracement because it can happen overnight and it can happen directly. We could very well find ourselves in 2-3 days at $108,000. So be careful about that, but for now, there is no short to attempt. I remind you, we are currently completely bullish technically, completely bullish in terms of data, same thing. We have whales buying this movement. We have micro whales buying this movement currently. They started selling when we topped here and they are currently buying it back. We have retail investors who are selling. So clearly, for now, we don't necessarily have to panic. We don't have to FOMO sell, and clearly, we just have to follow the trend. We are not immune to another bullish movement. So technically, I expect that we will have a setup potentially here. But if we don't get it, we will have to consider going a bit higher, and that means that we can simply wick into $120,267. It is very likely to do this movement, or even to seek $121,176, given that we have another FVG located in this zone. And here, we have an FVG that is between $122,358 and $122,000. So that means we can wick into this zone. But there you go, currently we are in a zone in which we could reverse, given that we are in the OTE zone, we have taken all the liquidations, we are in an H4 breaker block, we are in an H4 H1 FVG, and therefore, this is the best zone in which we could technically reverse. In terms of data, we are on a potential top as well. So that means that, you know, clearly we could reverse here, but without a setup, there is no point in attempting a short now. I would really wait for an H1 setup. So that means a change in trend in which we validate a real change in trend, not just an intermediate one. So we do something like this, in which we validate our change in trend. We come back into the FVG, then we go, and the idea is to enter into this FVG here with a stop loss above to be safe, or just here for a better risk-reward. And so the goal will be to seek below this zone, $108,482 at a minimum, because I think now, if we come to seek much lower, it will certainly be to seek at least $103,000, and if we look at the daily, we can go much lower. We could very well seek $90,000, given that we have an FVG in there. We have never retested the OTE zone of the entire bullish movement. If we put it just like this, we clearly see that it falls into the OTE zone as well. So there you go, seeking $90,000 if this zone were to break, that could be interesting. So the short could be really nice if we manage to get it. In any case, for now, there is clearly nothing to do. Simply watch what is happening, remain a spectator, and do not FOMO. Do not necessarily buy now, given that we are in a potential selling zone, and do not necessarily short now, given that we have no setup to do so. I hope this video was helpful. If so, I invite you to subscribe, like, and comment on what you think. What do you think we will do in the coming days, by Monday? It could be interesting to have your opinion on the matter. I wish you a good day. We will meet again tomorrow before 9 AM. Take care of yourselves. M.