Transcription
As we know full well, Danny, there were lots of people inside of Iran and some of them were very powerful people who were unhappy with the memorandum of understanding. They thought that Iran should have played hard ball and not agreed to sign it. Iran actually had a lot more leverage than the Iranian negotiators understood and they were foolish to sign that agreement. And furthermore, you can't trust the United States anyway. And if you look at what's happened, Danny, I think the hardliners have been proved correct. I mean, I think this is the problem that people like Aradi golly and others face. Uh they thought that uh the negotiations would be fruitful and that has not happened at all.
You want to remember here that there are sort of three big problems from the Iranian point of view in terms of the west living up to the memorandum of understanding. What we have been talking about now is um the whole question of control of the straight of Hormuz. And the issue here is that the United States thinks that some tankers or some ships can go through the Omani channel in the straight. And the Iranians say that is absolutely unacceptable. And this is what the two tit fortats have been all about. the two tit fortats that have taken place since the memorandum of understanding was signed. It's all about the question of whether or not uh ships can go through the Omani channel. That's the issue. That's one big issue regarding theou.
There are two other issues as well. One of them is that the United States has now said that it is not going to allow Iran to sell oil in world markets. And that was part of the memorandum of understanding. And you remember as soon as the memorandum was signed, the Iranians were allowed without penalty to sell oil in world markets. The United States has now reneged on that element of the agreement. Furthermore, in the memorandum of understanding, this was the very first point, it was made clear that the Israelis had to cease and desist from their war against Hezbollah. And that, of course, meant getting out of southern Lebanon. And not only have the Israelis not gotten out of southern Lebanon, but they've continued their war against Hezbollah.
So when you look at what's happening from an Iranian point of view, there are actually three elements in the memorandum of understanding where the Iranians believe that the United States has not lived up to its part of the bargain. And given that, coupled with the horrendous things that President Trump says about the Iranian leaders and the Iranian people, and given the fact that he's threatened to wipe them off the face of the earth, it's hard to see how you're going to get any cooperation in the near future from the Iranians that works to America's advantage. They have a powerful incentive to play hard ball with us. Uh let's see that is today. Looks like I had not seen that one. So it's President Trump. The Islamic Republic of Iran has asked us to continue talks. We have agreed to do so. Very very kind of President Trump. But the United States has stated to them in no uncertain terms that the ceasefire is over. Thank you for your attention to this matter. That is one hour ago. So that that less than an hour ago that President Trump just said that. So uh we'll see how that's going to play into those hardliners that you're literally talking about right now. Let's as we're as we're basically speaking, Trump reinforces that the ceasefire is over, which may imply there's another tit for tat coming or another strike coming. Uh what do you make of that?
>> Well, what good is it going to do? I mean, again, there is no theory of victory here. Nobody can explain how this has an ending that works to our advantage. We signed the memorandum of understanding on uh on June 17th because it was the best deal we could get. Yes, it was basically a surrender document, but that's because we lost the war. We we have no military option here. Doing more tit fortat doesn't solve anything. And furthermore, this is I think a very important part of the story, Danny, because the Iranians have been consumed with the funeral. They have not really said much about how they are going to respond to what President Trump has just done. In other words, I said before the war in southern Lebanon has not ended. The Israelis have not pulled out. Uh the Iranians are no longer able to sell oil on world markets and the United States continues to insist that ships can go through the Ammani channel. Okay. So if you're the Iranians, what do you do when you hear that? They're not going to cave. We know that they're going to play hard ball. Are are they going to really limit how much comes out of the Gulf? Are they going to shut the Gulf down alto together? Are they going to mine the Omani channel? Uh what exactly are they going to do? It's very hard to say. And then what are we going to do in response? I don't think President Trump wants a situation where the where the Gulf gets shut down again or the number of ships coming out is reduced to single digits. That is not in America's interest at this point in time. It's certainly not in in President Trump's political interest. But I'm not sure what he's thinking because it's just very hard to understand what the administration is doing here. And furthermore, just one final point on this this point by Trump that the Iranians have asked him uh to go back to negotiations and that he's kindly agreed to do that is ludicrous, right? There's no evidence of that. If anything, the the Iranians are hinting, and I underline the word hinting, uh that they're not interested in going back to negotiations at the time. And it looks like uh the Pakistanis and the Omanis are working overtime to change their mind on that. But the idea that they called up President Trump and said, "Please uh let's go back to negotiations is is kind of a laughable argument."
>> Yeah. It it would be laughable if the the stakes weren't so much because he said that literally the other day too that they're they are begging me for for a negotiator. And then obviously that was even during the the ceremony when the supreme leader was being laid to rest in his final place. And I think it's pretty uh ridiculous to suggest that they did. Um want to look at you mentioned that there was some some additional headwinds. You mentioned one about Lebanon. I think that there's an additional one I want to talk about on top of that. But since you brought it up, let's look at Lebanon because this is from the Jerusalem Post this morning. Uh this was in an an op-ed. First of all, it says withdrawal cannot be a gesture of faith. US Israel must align on Lebanon. meaning that they must pull us to their side. But then you see that subhead there, that's not an opinion piece. That's what the Israeli defense minister, Israel cat, said, "We did not ask anyone's permission to enter Lebanon and we do not need anyone's permission to stay in Lebanon." Does that sound like that President Trump is in charge and that he's going to demand that they leave because that's what he signed in theou? How do you see that?
Well, if the Iranians insist that they will not negotiate until the Israelis are out of southern Lebanon, the question is what does President Trump do at that point in time. Let's assume, and we're just assuming here because we don't know exactly what the Iranians are going to do, but let's assume that the Iranians effectively shut down the strait. uh that the number of ships going out is very small on a daily basis. Uh and at the same time they say they will not go back to negotiations. There'll be no negotiations until the Israelis are out of southern Lebanon. Then the question is what is President Trump going to do? Uh is he just going to say okay the status quo is fine and we'll just continue like this? Uh I don't think so. I don't think he could do that and I think he will go to great lengths to put pressure on the Israelis to get out. Now whether he succeeds at that remains to be seen, but if he doesn't succeed, the question is where does that leave the United States? And it leaves us in deep trouble. And and it leaves us in deep trouble is the best way to put that. Uh we have a a quote here a minute ago. I'm not sure if Gary He scrambled to try to find it behind the scenes. threw a curveball at him uh because Professor Morandi who who certainly you know well uh has has answer addressed that very issue right there. If we can find it, I'm going to pull it up in just a second here. But in the meantime, let me go up to what I said is the second issue here. Uh and that is the issue with additional problems. And I'm looking at the wrong thing. Things got moved. There we go. Uh that is Turkey. Uh this is again from today's Jerusalem Post. As Iran fades, Turkey emerges as Israel's biggest strategic threat, a NATO ally, and they're of course upset right now because of the F-35s, but that's hardly the biggest issue. What can you tell us about this uh this growing conflict, and do you have concerns that it may literally supplant the Iranian problem for Israel?
>> Well, it's in my opinion hard to believe that the Israelis are now picking a fight with the Turks. Uh you would think that they have their hands full in Gaza, on the West Bank, in Syria, and in Lebanon. Not to mention Iran. Uh in my opinion, they've suffered a humiliating the Israelis suffer have suffered a humiliating defeat in Iran. And you want to remember here, Danny, that the most important issue from the Israeli point of view has always been uh Iran's nuclear capability. And uh if we don't get negotiations going uh we're never going to get a nuclear deal, a new version of the JCPOA. Uh and who knows what the Iranians will do on the nuclear front. So the the Israelis have lost in Iran in a really serious way. And as we were just talking about earlier in the show, there's no way to rescue the situation, right? the best that you can hope for is a revised JCPOA. Uh but you're not, it's not clear you're even going to get that at this point in time given where we're going. So again, Iran, Gaza, the West Bank, Syria, Lebanon, and here they are putting their gun sites on Turkey and alienating the Turks. And furthermore, this has consequences for the USIsraeli relation. I mean uh the US uh Israeli relationship in the sense that President Trump was just in Istanbul making it very clear that the principal reason he was there was because Erdogan who he considers a good friend and he talked about giving the Turks F-35s. Uh so what Trump is trying to do is improve relations with Turkey and at the same time Netanyahu is picking a fight with Turkey uh which is going to put Trump in a terribly awkward position. And the question is if you're Donald Trump, do you need that? And the answer is no. The Israelis won't cooperate on southern Lebanon. Uh they won't cooperate on Gaza. They won't cooperate on the West Bank. they won't cooperate on Iran and so forth and so on. And now you're picking a fight with Turkey which is going to complicate Trump's diplomacy with Turkey. This is not good from Israel's point of view, but it's where Israel is at at this point in time.
Well, and let me let me show you let me complicate things a little bit more or rather illuminate the complications a little bit more because this this whole issue of of primarily US, Israel, Iran and the nuclear issue and and you have to include Lebanon in that which you just did a second ago. All of those things are just a Gordian knot that it's just nearly impossible to undo. Let me show you how it's even more difficult than some may think. U is that you said the issue with Lebanon is is one of the primary issues. Well, here's how it is. the Iranian side view. This is Professor Morandi uh here uh just a few days ago explaining how important Lebanon is to even getting what President Trump wants. His whole thing has always been it's the the nuclear deal. They can't have nuclear weapons. That's his mantra, his his objective here. Here's how complicated it is now.
>> The Iranians have told the Omani government that they would like to work with them. they have negotiations. But the Iranians have also said if Oman pulls back under duress from the United States, uh Iran will do it alone. So Iran is not going to wait for Oman. Uh the decision has been made in Iran that they will for now on control the strait. They will take uh fees. Now the Iranians have been very clear to the Americans there will be no nuclear deal if Lebanon is evacuated. if if it is not evacuated, if the war does not end, there will be no nuclear negotiations if this does not take place. So that's really up to the Americans. And in addition to that, the Iranians can make life for the Americans much more difficult in the straight of Hormos. If the Americans refrain from carrying out their obligations elsewhere, then the Iranians will feel that they are not obliged to allow all that many ships to pass through.
>> So there it is. That's the leverage that you talked about there at the end, but also the situation that hey, there won't we won't even talk to you about what you want, Mr. President, unless this issue with Lebanon gets done. Um, do you think that that's just bluster on the Iranian side?
>> I don't think it's just bluster. Uh, and there's all sorts of evidence that the Iranians have said that uh on the internet. Uh, but I've not seen it in the Western press. And as you know, Danny, one of the big problems that we face is evaluating what's true and what's not true. And when you see reports that the Iranians have said, what Professor Morandi said is their position, you're never completely sure whether it's true or not. My sense is that it is true that the Iranians have reached a point where they will not cut a deal on the nuclear issue. In fact, I think the Iranians will not continue to negotiate period until the Israelis are out of southern Lebanon. Uh, and there has to be some sort of agreement. Also, just to go back to the clip you played on the whole question of the Omani channel uh in in the Gulf, I actually thought it was uh basically solved after the uh uh the last tit for tat, not the one that just took place, the one that took place uh between June 26th and June 28th. Uh, I I thought after that one was over with, we understood that the memorandum of understanding made it clear that Iraq controls the strait and we can't ships that Iran, excuse me, controls the straight and we can't send ships uh through
>> that's what we signed.
>> That's what we signed. Yeah. If you look at article 5, it seems clear to me that that's what we signed. And after the previous tit fortat, this is the June 26th to June 28th one which was over this issue. It looked like once that tit fortat stopped that we had resolved this issue, but then it started again because we sent more ships the Omani channel and they of course attacked the ships and then we started the tit for tat. Uh so you say to yourself, where are we now? Are we going to in a week's time send more ships or encourage more ships to go through the Omani channel and then we're back to square one? Uh and I think again what's going to happen here and maybe it has happened here if professor Morande is correct is that the Iranians have decided that you either respect uh the uh memorandum of understanding in all its dimensions or if you don't we don't agree to negotiate.
Now, here's here's kind of where we are now because you've laid out very clearly the the three phases where we at. And now then the question is where do we go from here? Because so far, I think it's pretty arguable that we definitely lost the air war. We definitely lost the the blockade war and we're losing the tit for tat war. I guess you you can't say lost past tense yet because that's kind of still where we are. But there are others who recognize that and they're saying, "Hey, you know, how about this? How's about we go back to war? I know that sounds like a great idea. It didn't work the first time, but maybe this time it is. And that is led by General Keith Kellogg. There's a big rule and war about simplicity and I'll make it really simple for you. I think what they ought to do right now, what I'd recommend to the president is you take that 14point and you throw it away and you start to make the Iranians understand that we are not equals in this fight at all because what you just said, we've decimated their military forces. We are able to penetrate at will and say there's three demands we have. One is we're going to send the IAEA to get the enriched uranium and the centrifuges with American support with no restrictions at all. Number two, we're going to open up the Straight of Hormuz, and if you attack it, we'll attack back. And if you damage any ships, we're going to take the funible reserves that you have in place, which are in the billions, and pay those shipping companies the cost of either losing a ship or getting damage to a ship. And the third, you're going to lay off your neighbors. Yeah.
So, basically, uh, you lost, and we're going to do you're going to do what we tell you, and we're just going to pretend like the first 40 days didn't happen, I guess. Now, I'll tell you, John, you may say, "Oh, well, that's just this lunatic guy. He's been saying non-stop nonsense from the beginning, and no one's going to actually listen to him." But then just before we came on the air here, Gary passed this on to me. It's like, "Oh, snap. The USS Abraham Lincoln is reentering the Gulf of Oman, just 250 kilometers off the Iran's uh Charbahar coast and within oddly within missile range." Uh what do you make of of what uh he said, what general said and what this uh news shows?
Well, the what people like the general, General Kellogg, never spell out is how things have changed since the 40-day air war in ways that are going to allow us to achieve victory now when we were unable to achieve victory then. I mean, again, you always want to ask yourself, and I don't have to tell you this, but you always have to ask yourself, what's your theory of victory? You know, h how do you produce the objectives that you care about? How do you bring this war to an end on favorable terms? And how does air power alone do that for you? You know, we tried it for 40 days and it didn't work. and he doesn't say anything about that. I mean, there are all sorts of dimensions that have to be addressed here. It's very clear that we ran down our inventory of critically important weapons, uh, things like tomahawks, things like patriots, and so forth and so on. Uh and uh uh and one of the reasons we stopped after 40 days is that we didn't have an endless inventory of weapons. Uh and you know, we just told the Japanese that we're not going to be able to deliver all the tomahawks we promised them on time uh because we're really hurting when it comes to Tomahawk cruise missiles. This tells you something. So he he's talking about, you know, going back at it again. Do we have the weaponry to do that? And how does this affect the overall inventory? Second question is, you know, he talks about the fact that we've decimated Iran's uh capabilities, their military capabilities, but almost everybody knows that that's not true.
And >> yes, I mean, hasn't he noticed that we've been engaged in tit fortat?
>> Right. tit for tat in my head means you hit they hit and it if they hit that means they have missiles to hit us with and I think everybody understands that if we go after critical infrastructure uh inside of Iran which is consistent with what General Kellogg is advocating they're going to strike at critical infrastructure in the Gulf and that is going to have devastating consequences not only for the Gulf but for the world economy and probably the Red Sea will get shut down as well as the Gulf. Uh the fact is that the Iranians have a second strike capability and if you go up the escalation ladder it looks to me like the Iranians win, not us. And again that's one of the reasons just one of the reasons that we quit the air war after 40 days. And you know, just to go to the blockade and marry the blockade to the air war, both of those campaigns, the air campaign and the naval campaign were predicated on the assumption that you could punish Iran and the Iranians would throw up their hands. It should be manifestally clear to General Kellogg at this point in time that Iran can absorb enormous amounts of punishment. And uh we do not have the capability to bring them to their knees. It's just not going to happen. If they have to eat grass, they'll eat grass. They're not going to surrender. You know, I don't try to talk you into buying gold or tell you how to run your stock portfolio, but there is a way you can help us. Subscribe, hit that like button, and share this with somebody you love. Heat. Heat.