Transcription
Alright, good morning everyone. I hope you are doing well. Happy Ath to everyone. This will be the topic of the day with a BTC making a new all-time high. Is it a true ATH or is it a trap? A Sunday pump, a liquidity grab, what will I be watching? So, this will be the most important topic today. We will of course talk about Ether and three cryptos that I was asked to analyze. I've noted Dodge, AVAX, and Drift. Before I start, I remind you that you have €200 to get on the Crypto Investor program for those who want a complete strategy, a portfolio with the best cryptos, a profit-taking strategy, how to succeed, and especially to benefit from the knowledge you will acquire to succeed in this bull market. I remind you, a bull market doesn't happen every 6 months, okay? So, you shouldn't miss it. If you miss it, you'll potentially have to wait several months, several years for another one. That's why it's now that you need to get trained, acquire all the skills to benefit from it. So I invite you to click on the first link in the description to activate the €200 offer, the ongoing offer, and especially to see everything you will find inside the program.
So, I'll start here with BTC, which is making a new ATH, which is breaking, I was going to say breaking, it's going above this peak for a very short time. We had a small moment above the ATH up to around $125,600, only to re-enter it. We had quite a few liquidations, okay, short liquidations, which is quite normal. By breaking here, well, by going above the ATH, we haven't broken it yet, we're liquidating shorts. Okay, so quite a few positions have been closed. We had a mini short squeeze, but very quickly a selling reaction with sellers showing up, and from the highest point here to the lowest point, we dropped 2.5% quite quickly. Well, as we had seen together, we had a good chance of making a new ATH. I was even telling you that we were in this sideways phase and that we were more likely to break through to the upside, pardon, because we are in an uptrend, and an uptrend is more likely to continue in its initial direction, so here, upwards. Okay? Now, this is the plan we've discussed recently. This is what we absolutely need to watch, it's how we behave when we make this ATH. Okay? Because as I said, we have a great chance. Now, it's done. What we need now is to react to what we see. For now, what I see is that we haven't broken the ATH, that's a fact. Okay? We have a wick that is quite significant. And this is where we'll need to watch how we close tonight and especially the reaction tomorrow when we see the markets, the traditional financial markets, the US markets, opening. Okay? Because the weekend moves, they are good. Okay, we can have moves. It's quite rare in general that it gives us a real market direction. It can, as proof, last Sunday at this level, it marked the bottom. So it can, but it remains quite rare. Now, it can be the case here. We make a new ATH and on Monday we continue in the direction of this trend. It's entirely possible. What I will be watching are two things. One, the daily close. The weekly close, also, which is coming in 9 hours, which will potentially be the highest close ever recorded on BTC. Okay. I'm talking about the close, not the wicks. And I will especially be watching tomorrow. We make a new ATH, it's always a good thing. It makes people talk, it's good, it's advertising. The best advertising for BTC is a new ATH. Okay? It's one of the most silent ATHs we've made. That's a fact. From a market sentiment point of view, well, we don't hear much about it. It's different from this one, or even the one we made at this level where there was a lot of hype and so on. Even when we made a new peak, we talked about it a bit less at that level, but a bit more than where we are now. And it's true that now, we hear very little about it. As proof, if I look at the spreads, we still have rather low spreads. When I look at the funding rates, well, we've had a bit, it's increased a bit, okay, but it remains slight compared to what we've experienced before. So, an ATH in total silence, all the better, I'd say. All the better. It's better to have an ATH where very few people talk about it, because if we start making a new ATH and everyone is bullish, everyone is shouting about $150,000, $200,000, the market, I remind you, does the opposite of what the majority of people think. So be careful about that, it's something to watch when everyone gets excited. Okay? Generally, we're not far from putting in a top. Why? Because when all the buyers have entered their positions, when there are only buyers left, well, what's left? Well, there are simply future sellers left. Okay? When you are a buyer, well, you are a future seller because to exit your position, you absolutely must sell. So, as I said, what I will be watching on my end, the daily close, and especially the index we will make if we start closing like this. Okay, already, I'm operating on the principle that we haven't made a new ATH, we have made one, but we haven't broken it, and we are just on a liquidity grab. If we start to have a bearish engulfing, tomorrow, a very strong candle that starts breaking the short-term moving averages, and globally, if we start to go back under around $120,000, if we start breaking like this and going back below this level, we would potentially be on a deviation. Okay, to go back to the middle, or even the opposite extreme. In the end, something we've done like here, you see? Hop, the ATH is here. We'll make a new one. The difference is that here, we don't even make a high wick. We have a break that remains quite slight because we haven't really settled above this level. We have a break of a few dollars and then immediately a bearish engulfing at this level. And this is typical of a deviation, re-entry, liquidity grab. Objective: go for the opposite extreme. I'm not saying this is what we'll do, but this is what I'll be watching. If necessary, take profits, de-risk a bit, it's entirely possible, and re-enter higher if I get a signal, or lower if this scenario ultimately plays out. In any case, I remind you, we are in good zones to take profits. You will never regret taking profits near an ATH at such high levels. We are clearly at interesting levels for TP. Someone who positioned themselves on BTC at this level or lower, well, we are at a good performance. Of course, it depends. The person who has already taken a lot of profits, let's say, they had one BTC initially, okay, they took profits on the way up, they have, for example, 0.1 left. Well, yes, they can keep, they can keep good exposure automatically because they have significantly reduced their exposure. Now, the person who bought one BTC and still has one BTC might take profits at some point, unless the person has a very long-term strategy and is positioned on BTC beyond the speculative aspect, rather the aspect, let's say, of a safe haven, rather the aspect of political security, anyway, whatever, I've lost the words I had in mind, but it's okay. In any case, beyond the speculative aspect, it's entirely understandable. Now, yes, I will be watching what I told you tomorrow. We also have our weekly close, which means a new week is coming, a week to prepare for. Okay. And also, what are the levels I will be watching in case I want to position myself? Well, it will first depend on the new weekly pivot points we will have, because like every beginning of the week, we have new weekly pivot points. I like to look at the confluences I have with these weekly pivot points at the level of the tunnels, whether it's a 15-minute, 1-hour, or 4-hour tunnel. Now, as I say, it will depend on Monday's move. If we don't have a strong selling reaction and we put in a bottom, for example, in the 15-minute tunnel, which has been acting as support for a while, it's interesting to follow the trend. We saw the 3-minute tunnel well following our trend. We lost a bit of momentum, even if we maintain bullish momentum, we lost a bit of momentum because we broke the 3-minute tunnel. We see it at this level, at this level, at this level. Every time we break it, what do we go for? The 15-minute tunnel. Which also acts as support. So for me, nothing new, when I look at the chart like this, we remain in a bullish flow, we keep making higher highs and higher lows. However, I must note that we did have a selling reaction at this level. So, we are more likely to continue in the direction of the trend. We are more likely to make a new ATH because the moving averages are oriented upwards, because we have a bullish flow. But nothing prevents us from being vigilant. Okay. And nothing prevents us, for example, if we have a significant retracement tomorrow, from reducing our exposure on long-term spot positions because we are at quite high levels, and if we go back to the 15-minute tunnel, a 1-hour tunnel, then take a long on futures. We can hedge, we can, there are many things to do this way, or simply take a long to continue the trend. It's entirely possible. Okay? Because honestly, going for $118,000 wouldn't be great. Why? Because we would break this support level and we would have a strong reaction. However, we would be at a support level, so it would be a pullback. So we would still have a good selling reaction that would send us a significant signal, but on the other hand, we would be at a support level. So that's why we are still in a phase here. There can be doubt that sets in because we're making a new ATH, but perhaps not in the best way. Be careful, I might be speaking too quickly, by 9 AM, we will close at $125,000, and that would be the best scenario. Okay? Now, that's why the goal, each time, I'm not here like many people you'll find on YouTube who try to anticipate, who will tell you "Ah yes, it's 100% sure it's the market top, we're going to $100,000." Or others, "That's it, ATH bullish $150,000." I'm not interested in the prices, that's not what interests me the most. What I want to see is how the market behaves. And my goal is not to anticipate what the market will do in 3 hours, in 1 month, in 6 months. No, my goal is to react to what I see at the moment. And what I see at the moment, as I said, is a price that is still bullish but with a potentially high wick near an ATH, which invites me to be cautious. But on the other hand, if we have retracements, there can be long setups that trigger. You see, it's a balance to manage, positions like this that will need to be managed well to avoid doing anything foolish. So, I'm clearly sharing with you, in all transparency, what I think about BTC. As I said, tomorrow, if I have a significant selling reaction, I might reduce my exposure on certain cryptos, okay? In case, so that if necessary, I can re-enter higher, or if, as I said, my scenario is validated, re-enter lower. Okay, if on the other hand I don't have that, well, I'll continue the trend, we'll have a good chance of making a new ATH. It's even the most realistic scenario. So, we'll see all that depending on how the market reacts and if we have acceptance or not. If we have a big dump, I prefer not to get ahead of myself and observe what we will see in the coming days.
So, on that front for BTC, I had shared a trade that I still have on Rena, a good trade that is consolidating. For now, I entered at this level. Okay, we are slowly going sideways. Okay? So we'll see the resolution if we break this low and continue, or if, on the contrary, we break this 4-hour tunnel. As I said, the goal of taking a trade is always to show you why I entered the position, but the entire trade management part, for now, I haven't de-risked, I haven't reinforced my position, I'm just letting the trade play out. And as I say, I'm always transparent. That is to say, if I take a loss, I won't hide my trade from you. That is to say, I won't, when I make a video, tell you "Ah well no, on Rena, in the end, I got out here," and lie to you. No, if I take a loss, I accept it. It's part of trading, I put it in my journal and I move on. I will still take losses, just as I will take gains, and that's how it is. I can take one, two, three losses in a row, but I'll make a gain that will compensate for my three losses. It's about having good risk management. And all the people on the internet who tell you they never lose are liars. Everyone loses, everyone takes a stop loss. Now, as I say, we'll see how this trade evolves. I had shared my conditions with you. Price action that is very bullish, that is consolidating, that is coming back to test its daily tunnel with a very good buying reaction, that is going back above the 1-hour and above the 15-minute. So, I entered at this level with the objective of reaching the upper extreme and an invalidation below this low. So, we'll see the invalidation on the 4-hour close from here. So I'll see if we settle in or not, because if we just have a small wick suddenly and we re-enter, I don't get out under these conditions. I'll see if we have acceptance. My medium to long-term stop losses are different from my short-term stop losses. So, that was for the follow-up. Of course, if I take profits, if I exit partially, it's possible, it depends on how we get there. But if we start going below this level and we settle in, I might have a partial stop loss at this level. Because partial TPs are good, but partial stop losses are also good. So, that's it for Ena. Regarding Ether, where are we? Well, quite simply, we are currently holding this support level that acted as resistance, which we pulled back on yesterday. I was telling you about it when we were in the 15-minute tunnel, that it was a good zone to take longs in yesterday's video. As I say, you can watch it. I think we were around here at this level. I clearly told you that here we were in a very good entry zone to position ourselves on Ether. Why? Because we are quite simply on our 15-minute tunnels, weekly pivot points, a bad range. Globally, this kind of trade is taken. A risk-reward of 3 for 1 or going for this peak, going for the next daily pivot point. This is a trade that is taken, and we see that it's a clearly winning trade. So, this is how I operate for those who follow me. I won't present 40,000 strategies. Some will take Ichimoku, then RSI, they'll take this, they'll take 40,000 indicators, 40,000 ways to trade. I've been trading with moving averages for years, I've been trading with Vegas tunnels and weekly PIVs for years. I know it works. Okay. I can have partial setups, additional setups on extremes or others, as I've already presented and as I present, for example, in my programs. But the core of my trading remains Vegas tunnels because I like to trade the trend, and that's where I get the best results. So, typical of a bullish market. Okay, I'm looking for longs, we retrace, we go back to a good entry zone, I get a buying reaction, I enter the position. So, Ether is moving and settling above $4005. That's rather good. As long as we hold this level, the objective is to reach $4800 here, which is the major resistance zone. And if we manage to break this level, a new ATH, we will have, as I showed, short-term objectives between $5006 and $6000. Then after that, the long-term objectives which are already set, rather $7300, $8800. So, no invalidation structure on Ether, we remain in this bullish dynamic. We saw that on the long term, I turn bearish if we go back below $3009-$3008 on a weekly close. That hasn't happened. We had a good wick, and that's the importance of having invalidations on the close. Many make the mistake of rushing and on Ether, at $3008-$3009, ah, that's it, we're re-entering this major level. It's the end. No, if this is a weekly level, it's a weekly or even monthly level. We don't rush into 15-minute or 1-hour charts if we have a close below this level. Okay. And here, I haven't invalidated anything on the long term. And you see that it pays off. This is the importance of having invalidations. When we have invalidations like this, an invalidation is often at a support level, right? Because as long as we are above this level, I am bullish. So if we come back near my invalidation, it means it's a support level automatically. However, if we break this support level, well, then my invalidation is triggered. For now, it's paying off. I'm still in on Ether, even though I had lightened up and taken profits here and here, I'm keeping a strong exposure. Why? Because Ether, for me, hasn't experienced a bull market. We've simply been in a range for about 4-5 years, 4 years, yes, 2021-2022. So, if Ether starts to break out, there's a good chance we'll quickly enter a trend and reach higher levels. I don't want to sell you a dream, I don't want to give you too much hopium, but these are clearly realistic objectives. Of course, it will also depend on how BTC behaves. That's why it's important to always keep an eye on what Bitcoin is doing. Okay.
So, altcoins, as usual, we keep the strongest altcoins. Apt, nothing changes, it's the strongest altcoin this week, and it's the one we've been watching every day. Why? Because we always operate on the principle that when an altcoin is strong, it's more likely to be strong tomorrow and the day after. Apt is a prime example where, over the week, it's performing very well, and in the short term, to trade it, it's pleasant. We use moving averages, pullbacks, 3-minute tunnel, 15-minute tunnel, these are simply good opportunities, and it's a crypto that is outperforming BTC. We see it clearly at this level. Here, I have a dashboard that allows me to see all the altcoins against BTC. Very few altcoins are performing better than BTC currently. We see Atom is weak, Kas is weak, Near is ranging. Hondo is bearish, AVAX is bearish, AVAX is bearish, UNI is also bearish, PEPE is also bearish. Hyperliquid is ranging, even bearish. LTC is still okay. DOT is weak. TAO is weak. TX, same, AVAX is weak. SHIB is weak. SUI is weak. LINK is weak. SOL is still okay. ADA is weak. BNB is not bad. XRP is weak, DOGE is neutral, let's say. TON is weak, and ETH is, well, it's neutral, let's say. It's neutral, let's say. APT. It's not bad, you see, hop, we were rather bearish, but for a while now, we've been in a good bullish dynamic, and that's the importance of choosing strong altcoins. We won't take Kas, for example, which isn't doing much. If I put Kas, maybe I'm wrong, and in the previous weeks, it performed a lot. You see, Kas is weak, 4-hour bearish, 1-hour bearish, 15-minute crossing downwards, 15-minute rejecting, acting as resistance. So, we see Kas doing this, while all the altcoins are doing rather well at the moment. If we look at Total 3. Where is it? Total 3? It's here. It's Total 3, which is above the 15-minute, above the 1-hour, above the 4-hour. Well, I'm not going to bother taking longs on Kas when I have an APT that is bullish. For trend trading, I don't try to buy low, I try to buy high to sell even higher. And compared to some who say, "Ah, to trade, you have to buy low, sell high." Yes, okay. It can be a strategy to buy low and sell high, but buying high to sell higher also works, provided you have the right tools and know how to enter positions and especially how to invalidate. BNB remains interesting, a good strong altcoin at the moment with moving averages also oriented upwards. Solana remains correct. Okay, you see, there are a few altcoins like that that stand out. Hyperliquid, it's a bit less impressive than before. We're still going back above the 4-hour, above the 1-hour. If we make a new peak here at this level, it could become very interesting to trade in the direction of the flow. Then there are altcoins that are not great. Arbitrum is not great, it's not good, VETRI. Here, I'm just talking from a trend continuation perspective. Near is still okay, for trend continuation, it's not bad. Optimism is okay, but there are clearly better ones. Well, PEPE, we saw it. EGLD is not great. JUP is not great. 4-hour acting as resistance. Generally, I try to have all the moving averages in the same direction. 4-hour bullish, 1-hour bullish, 15-minute bullish. Algo, you see, acting as resistance, it's not great. Atom, same. ETC, well, it's not great either. XLM, XLM, it's already a bit better. You see, we are above the 4-hour, above the 1-hour, above the 15-minute. LTC, LTC, it's not bad. LTC, we have an example where the 15-minute acts as support, a good bullish chart, that's interesting for trading our trend. Bitcoin Cash is not bad either. SHIB is okay, there are better ones, but it's okay. ICP is not great. Toncoin is not, it's not great. It's recovering a bit, but it's not great. DOT is still okay. We are in the daily tunnel, but it's okay. We've gone back above the 4-hour, above the 1-hour, above the 15-minute. Chainlink, it's a bit messy. It's ranging. TRX, it's still okay. We are above the 1-hour, above the 4-hour which acted as support. The 15-minute is holding a bit. DOGE, it's okay. AVAX, anyway, we'll see it later. TRUMP, we are below the 4-hour. ADA, it's correct, but it lacks momentum. You see, it's not like BNB. You see the difference. This is much more pleasant to trade. Well, I've analyzed the altcoins that were asked for. I said AVAX, I'll start with AVAX. Hop. So, AVAX gave us a good signal. This was something we were watching at one point. I think I mentioned it again a couple of weeks ago. It gave us a good signal here on the long term. Why? Because what have we done on AVAX for a while? We had an accumulation phase here. We pumped. Okay. We had another accumulation phase above this previous phase. You see the value high at this level, we don't re-enter it. It acts as support. We had a false breakout at this level. We went back to test this low, and since then, we've been ranging, and we simply had a false breakout at this level followed by a breakout of this level upwards. So here we have what's called a W structure, a reversal pattern that invalidates this bearish trend because we had a bearish daily tunnel. We're going back above the daily, the daily acts as support, and we're validating this reversal pattern. So, validation of this pattern. Very simple objective, go for the opposite extreme around $50-$55. Invalidation with a stop loss below the low. So, that gives us a very good trade at this level. A risk-reward of about 2.38 for 1. Around 2.2 for 1, 3 for 1, it depends on how you extend it, but globally between 2 and 3 for 1. And nothing prevents keeping a small exposure in case we break this $60 level. In that case, we'll have a good chance of reaching another extreme around $100. But well, it's a pattern that was proposed. And yes, invalidation if we go below the structure, or even partial invalidation if we start re-entering and going back below the impulsive candle that broke this resistance level. So, globally, below $24. There aren't 40,000 trades for me on AVAX to take. It's mainly the one I'm showing you here, and then we'll see how the market evolves.
Next, analysis of Dodge. Now, with Dodge, what's annoying is that yes, we're validating reversal patterns, we're making higher highs. We don't have the strongest momentum because we see that the peaks are very slight, we re-enter them. We are still validating reversal patterns. We are close to this resistance zone, which we are even retesting. It's our neckline of this MTP on daily, we see that we've retested it several times, and the problem is that we are at rather high levels, mind you. So yes, we have retraced quite a bit compared to the ATH, but if I draw a Fibonacci from this peak to this low, you see we are close to 0.382, which means it's not a good entry on Dodge. A good entry was when we were at this level, when we were re-entering, well, when we were pulling back on the neckline, globally this accumulation zone. Here, it's complicated, we are high, and above all, we are close to a resistance zone. For me, there's nothing to do on Dodge. Either we wait for a retracement, whether it will happen, I don't know, but either we wait for a retracement, or at a stretch, we are a bit more aggressive and we position ourselves when re-entering this level with an invalidation below. If we go back above, we invalidate. The moving averages are clearly flat, which is normal, we are ranging. We need to wait for a real movement with strong momentum. That's all I'll be watching on Dodge from my end.
Last crypto. I was asked for an analysis of Drift. I don't really know what it is, but it's not bad. The chart is rather sexy. Here, bottom, we see it well with this W structure, pump. We come back. Now, we have a top structure. What's good is that it's not specifically an altcoin that is manipulated, because often manipulated altcoins have a structure and it's just pump and dump. And generally, when we validate a large reversal structure like this, there's a need to consolidate and mark a distribution phase to go back to our level. Not systematic, of course, it depends, but quite often. So this is something I pay attention to. Accumulation, distribution, and here we seem to be accumulating again. In any case, we had this sideways phase that was broken upwards at this level. We see it. Hop, the level is very simple to draw. It's here. We flipped this level. We see it clearly. Resistance, resistance, resistance. We break, we pullback, support. We have moving averages oriented upwards. It's a very good altcoin to watch for trend continuation, whether in the short, medium, or even long term. The validation of this bottom. Well, the objective clearly, we can put a Fibonacci, see what it gives us. Uh, have we wick high? I don't really like these high wicks. Sometimes they are not the best. I'll take from this movement. Let's see what it gives us. Hop. So, already, we have the neckline, this whole zone that we'll need to watch. Well, we are globally here. Which acts as resistance in confluence with the 0.382. Moreover, we see that we're reaching it very quickly. If we break this level, we'll have a good chance of reaching 0.18 next. If we clearly break it and settle in and continue to have continuation Ws, well, it's clearly the ATH. But yes, we are quickly at resistance here. Positioning ourselves at this level is complicated. Eventually, if we have a new pullback, there might be a long that can be taken, but still watch for short to medium-term trend continuation.
So, I've said what I wanted to say. We'll watch the closing together on BTC. Don't hesitate to join the Discord, and for those who want to train and succeed in this cycle or even the next ones, or even a bull market that might arrive, I invite you to join the Crypto Investor program by clicking on the first link in the description. I wish you a very good evening and I'll see you tomorrow for another video.