Transcription
Is this news allowing us to save Bitcoin and form a bottom? That's what we're going to try to see today. We had Nvidia's results, which are excellent. We're going to see where we are on this rebound. We're going to talk about order flow, what's happening. Are buyers really back or not? We're going to talk about liquidations again. We'll also do a quick update on Ethereum. We'll talk about ETFs, it's super important. Just before we start, I remind you that our algorithm service is still available. You have free access to it. 26 TP for the LIM algorithms last week and since the beginning of the month, the SPT algorithms have made approximately 11R on a simulated capital of 1000 dollars, risking 5 dollars per trade. 11R generates about 55 dollars, which makes a performance of +5.5% approximately. Once again, I repeat, past performance does not guarantee future performance. We post the results every week in the Discord. We will do a big quarterly review at the beginning of 2026. To access it, it's the first link in the pinned comment. All useful links concerning my content. It will take you to this page. You just need to register on Bitgate via our partner link. Make sure you go through this link, otherwise it won't work. Once you have clicked on this link, it allows you to register on Bitgate until November 24th, you have 4 days left. You have the possibility to get up to 10% cashback on your deposit. For example, if you make a deposit of 2000 dollars, you get 200 dollars in deposit bonus. So you create your account and then to access the algorithms, it's very simple. There is just a short video to watch here. It's the second one. It explains how to get the algorithms for free. The mentorship, the VIP, Alcoin and crypto. For the mentorship, we have added a new mindset section which will be very interesting, and you will also have access to the Alcoin VIP within the crypto VIP on Discord. This is where I will share the best opportunities on altcoins from my point of view.
So, regarding BTC, have we bottomed out? Yes or no. It's very difficult to say that we have bottomed out. The zone is very interesting. We have filled almost the entire daily vector fair value gap, almost to the dollar, at around 88,500 dollars. We also made a very small wick on our breaker. So, we are currently triggering a rebound. Nvidia's news is super bullish since Nvidia performed even better than expected. 55 billion dollars in revenue expected, so turnover, they made 57 billion, which is excellent. And for earnings per share, they made 1.3 instead of 1.26. So these are also very good results. Nvidia is breaking all records in terms of turnover and profit. So that's great. Now, what is very important is to observe the daily chart, of course. Looking at the chart like this, we agree, we cannot say that there is necessarily a bottom. There is good news, which triggers a rebound, which liquidates a few sellers. That's what we'll look at later with order flow. Also, on the hourly chart, there is a rather interesting signal, the taking of the daily low here. Then, the formation of a breaker. And what needs to be seen to confirm a bottom is that Bitcoin must now maintain this breaker. This will be very important here. So, we can note breaker block. For those who have seen the mentorship, it's an inversion pattern that can potentially lead us to break previous highs, possibly up to 96,800 dollars. Why 96,800 dollars? Because we have all our daily highs here that cover a daily fair value gap. So, this could be a rebound zone. And then we'll see if we can form a bottom or not. In any case, it's already a first piece of news. I repeat, these price zones are interesting for those who want to invest. For those who want to take positions, swing for example, these are zones where there is a possibility of forming a rebound or even a bottom. Now, that doesn't mean it will form that way. I know that when you see a lot of volatility like this, you expect the bottom to be established and for us to quickly go up. That's very unlikely. The market needs to digest this phase, and what could happen, for example, is consolidation within the CFVG, perhaps manipulation, and then expansion with a daily break that could mark an inversion. This could be an accumulation and bottom formation pattern. If we look historically, bottoms don't form in a day. You see here, for example. Now, you might say, "But if the bottom forms in a day." Yes, but what I mean is that a bottom zone can take several weeks to form. There can be doubt, uncertainty, trapping sellers, etc., etc. For example, here, you see we returned multiple times below the low before marking the inversion. Also, something that wouldn't make sense for forming a bottom is the timing. We know that this quarter is bearish. We are currently in November. We are not even at the end of this quarter. So, for example, if we wanted to form a bottom for the beginning of the year, what could form is something like this until the end of the year. Beginning of the year, perhaps a final bearish trap, and then here, we would mark a bottom. But I think we'll need to be patient; the bottom won't be marked like that in the blink of an eye. I remind you that we are in extremely important zones, especially with regard to the CME. On the CME, we are in the last fair value gap zone. The CME has already filled everything. That's why, for me, we are currently marking a rebound and this is an extremely important zone. If the CME were to settle below the fair value gap, then there would be a very high probability of reaching 79,900 on the CME. This would mean that on the perpetual market, we would fill our entire breaker, all our FVGs, and so on. So, can we confirm that we have a bottom? Unfortunately, no. From a technical point of view. After that, we'll look at order flow. Are buyers really back? Also, don't forget, there's important news, I'll talk about it again later. Now, from an hourly point of view, there is indeed a signal that we cannot really categorize as a bottom, but that we can categorize as a rebound in the first instance. And it's a signal we haven't seen for a long time, that is, liquidity taking and the breaker. Now, this upward movement must be maintained if it is reworked to continue upwards. And what I'm giving you as a reference point is the H4 fair value gap right here, which must absolutely be maintained from my point of view as a retest zone. There are two, but ideally, we can very well fill this one if it forms. And the idea is to no longer return below this price zone. Ideally, here, we have what's called a BPR for those who have seen the mentorship. This is a zone that is supposed to serve as support for us to do something like this and take out some highs, at least at 96,800 if I'm not mistaken. That's the daily fair value gap zone. That's right, 96,800. Also, something to note, if the momentum is really bearish, momentum is the strength of the movement. If you want to imagine a car driving, momentum tells us if the car is going faster and faster or not. The market is the same. Currently, there is a very aggressive, very bearish momentum. When you have divergences, it doesn't mean it's going to go up immediately. For example, I don't know if I put an indicator like the RSI here, are there divergences forming? For now, no. Perhaps a very small one here, very slight, very, very small divergence, but when a divergence forms, it doesn't necessarily mean to the moon right away. We can look at the MACD. It means that the market is slowing down in its bearish movement. It's like a car, for example, you're driving at 100 km/h. If you start to slow down, you'll go down to 80, 70, 60, but you'll keep moving forward. Momentum is exactly the same. Here, from what we see on MACDI, for example, we have the beginning of a divergence. This one is not yet confirmed for the moment. So, there are no signs of slowing down of this bearish momentum yet. Now, what we see here is absorption over the past few days. So, on small timeframes, we might have small signs of divergence. But again, it's too early to talk about a bottom. And yes, what I was going to say is that if the momentum, so the strength of the movement, is very bearish, the price will actually reverse from here, from yesterday's high. I'm telling you, this is the worst-case scenario. We take out yesterday's high stops, and we immediately go back down. I'm telling you honestly, if we do that, we'll be looking for at least 83,000. Well, not 83,000, but I think we'll be looking for at least 85,000 to 83,000. So, this is what we need to observe. This is what allows us to know the strength of the movement. For example, on this upward movement here, you see this big impulse. The market takes its daily low, boom, it continues. It takes a daily low, it continues. It takes a daily low, it continues. Here, it retraces slightly, it takes some daily lows, it continues. Same here, it takes the daily low, it continues. These are markets with very strong momentums. Same on the downside, we just take a high, boom, we continue on this rise, same, we go up, up, up, up, up. Here, for several days, there was no taking of lows. We just took this daily low, we continue. These are signs of very, very strong momentum. This is a way to analyze momentum without an indicator. That's why I'm telling you here, we'll observe if we just took yesterday's stops and if this candle, for example, today, we see it starting to turn red again, that's not good at all. Not good at all. So, if this candle starts to turn red again and we go back below the breaker, I'm telling you, it smells honestly of bearish continuation. So, this is what we'll need to observe. So, to summarize, very good sign in the short term, liquidity taking, breaker, respect of the weekly fair value gap zone on the CME. So, that's rather encouraging. Now, what's needed is to continue to build strength to at least work this daily fair value gap zone. And the idea, again, to see a bottom, I think it can take time. Now, a first good sign would be the formation of a daily order block. A daily order block could take this form: breaking the last bearish candle and then a market that forms, well, not necessarily this, but a market that comes to form a fair value gap. If we did that, there would be an OB and basically we could expect a retest of these stops, but rather that the market forms a bottom in this zone, and that would be very positive. So, it will take a little more time. It's not happening right away. It's possible we've bottomed here, but expect more of a rebound and consolidation rather than going to the moon directly. That's very unlikely. Generally, at the bottom, there is, well, there is uncertainty. People are still scared, etc. It's rare for it to happen very quickly. V-bottoms are probable. But why would a V-bottom be unlikely here? Here, we see that this rebound is not marked by spot demand, it's rather marked by short covering. Here, I'm showing you the CVDs. You have the spot CVD here. You have the Perp CVD. We see that the Perp CVD is more aggressive, which means that on derivatives, buyers are more aggressive. So, there are those who open longs following Nvidia's news, and there are those who naturally close their shorts. So, we can see here, precisely on this rise in CVD on the perpetual market, we can see that the open interest is falling. So, we can conclude that it's more short covering. In fact, following the good news, some shorts took profits. That's what's driving the price up. And from a spot perspective, sellers have... here, sorry, sellers have calmed down a bit, as we can see since Nvidia's news, but buyers are not aggressive at all for the moment. So, if buyers were really in control of the market and we really had a big bottom, we should see aggressive CVD. That doesn't mean it won't happen later. It can come later, but for now, it just indicates that it's more short covering. And that's what happens when a bottom forms: initially, it's generally short covering, so short sellers take their profits, then the market refuses to go down, and then buyers take over. So, we'll have to see if buyers manage to take over. For now, it's just a short covering rebound from an order flow perspective. From a technical point of view, it's more or less the same. I also wanted to talk about ETFs. We can see that, well, this is Ethereum, there are outflows on Ethereum, and also on Bitcoin. On Bitcoin, sorry, there are slight inflows. So, that's okay. There are 75 million, it's not the deal of the century, it's not the inflows of the century, let's be honest, but it's okay. So, we see that the selling pressure on the ETF has calmed down. We have small inflows, but you see, it's exactly what I'm showing you on the live order flow. That is to say, well, it's a rebound that is rather triggered by people closing their positions due to Nvidia's good figures, rather than aggressive buyers. So, that's what we also find on the CVD and on the ETFs. So, yes, it's too early to talk about a big bottom. In any case, these are interesting zones. I repeat, whether the bottom is here or there, it doesn't change much. What would be worrying is if we came here and pierced through. That would rather indicate a sharp drop. That remains a very probable scenario if people start to long the rebounds. That's what we'll need to observe. I have the impression that people are quickly adding leverage again. For the moment, nothing too dramatic. We see that on Hyperliquid, there isn't too much excitement. Now, regarding leverage ratios, they remain quite high. People haven't necessarily closed their positions. So, it's a scenario that is still possible. Now, well, we'll set it aside. Also, I was going to forget, there is important news today, and I think that's why spot buyers aren't showing up yet. They are waiting for today's news. We see here that they are not here yet. Regarding the news, for example, today is unemployment rate, NFP. It's super important. It's what will have an impact on interest rate cuts or not. Currently, we see that the market prices in a 30% chance of an interest rate cut. So, that's what's more predominantly priced in. I remind you that a month ago, we were at 95%, 98% chance of cutting rates in December, we went down to 29%. So, that means it's no longer the most probable thing for the market, and that's directly visible on an asset like the dollar, which has literally reacted very well in the weekly FVG. For those who watch the macro reviews, it was our bias that it would react well in this zone. Why? Because Euro USD did not take out the stops, and it was, how should I say it? It shows that it was a false rebound. Euro USD not taking out the stops will eventually do so. So, a falling Euro USD means a rising dollar index. And therefore, the fact that we are pricing in fewer chances of rate cuts strengthens the dollar, and therefore, this can put pressure on risk assets, of course. So, it always puts a bit of pressure on BTC, that will also be observed. On the CME, did we take out the stops? Not yet, not yet. So, in my opinion, we will go there. We will need to be clear on whether we will reverse or not at this daily high. If not, there's a way to have a deeper rebound as I indicated, 96,800 and so on.
Regarding ETH, well, Ethereum also went to seek the zone we identified. You remember, we had noted this zone at 2902 dollars. It was the next zone of interest to seek this FVG, since there was nothing left here. We went there, we also bounced well. We see that we have reached our targets perfectly. Boom! Immediate reaction, it's completely normal, these are POIs, there are algorithms buying at these levels. And therefore, on the other hand, there is no inversion on Ether. That is to say, we have the breaker on BTC, but we don't have it at all on Ethereum. On Ether, it would be positive in the short term to break the last high here, around 3112 dollars. I'm not talking about a simple stop grab, I'm really talking about a break to mark a breaker and to go and take out more stops to the north, like this entire zone of stops that we are accumulating around 3280 dollars, to then deal with, you see, all these daily highs that cover our daily FVG zone. Right here. If we fail to make this break, it will be another rejection from an order block. And behind that, what it means is that there are chances of seeing this. So, that's why we absolutely need to break this zone in the short term to have a short-term inversion signal to retest this bearish impulse and take out all the stops at 3280 dollars. Will that mean we are out of trouble? Not for the moment. I repeat, for spot buyers, we are in interesting zones. I'm not talking about those who want to trade with leverage. That's another story. I'm not talking about those who want to short with leverage either. Again, if you wake up and say, "Should I short here?" There's already been a 40% drop, it was more interesting to short higher up. But well, again, everyone does what they want. In principle, we can't say there's a bottom here yet. I mean, the daily close is nothing extraordinary. But in any case, there are first signs of a rebound on BTC. We'll see if it confirms on Ethereum or not. Breaking this level would be a first signal potentially to recover some stops to the north. And likewise, if we start to have a bullish order block forming daily on Ether, that would be a first positive signal to mark a rebound, a consolidation, and perhaps later, mark a bottom. And I repeat, it's likely to take time, it won't form now. Now, what bothers me a bit is that depending on the weekly close, if we close like this weekly, we could say that the first stop is broken and in that case, it would indicate that there's a higher chance of a simple rebound and rather going to seek the reload zone. Obviously, that will be observed perhaps at the monthly close, which will be saved at 3400. That's what could really save a breach of the first stop and allow us to go up again. But that will be observed. But in any case, there is an acceptance of the price below the first stop. So, we can assume that it's starting to be broken, that a reload zone can be expected if we don't manage to bottom out here. I'll stop here for today. I hope you enjoyed it. If so, don't hesitate to smash the blue thumbs, subscribe, and leave a comment. Thank you very much to those who play along. I remind you of all the links in the description box. Don't hesitate, there's plenty of free content for you.