Transcription
Hey everyone, and thanks for jumping back into the cryptoverse. Today, we're going to talk about Bitcoin, and we're going to provide an update to the bull market support band. If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up, and also check out the sale on Into the Cryptoverse Premium at intothecryptoverse.com. Link is in the description below. Let's go ahead and jump in.
So, I'm going to just stand by what I told you guys the last couple of weeks when we did the bull market support band video, and that is essentially that the current whatever rallies happened by Bitcoin, um, for the next couple of weeks, any upside potential will likely be sold off. And the reason for that is because I think that Bitcoin is is on its way to check in with the bull market support band. Now, clearly, I've said for a while that the check-in with the bull market support band would likely happen in September. It's not like it's impossible for it to happen in August. I want to be clear, but just looking at at prior drops, we've seen oftentimes Bitcoin check in with the 20-week SMA, 21-week EMA in the month of September in post-halving years. This drop here was September of 2021. And of course, you have, uh, September of 2017, and of course, you have September, maybe early October of 2013. Right? So, you have these drops that Bitcoin tends to carry out in post-halving years or post-election years. Um, even in 2020, we've we've seen some comparisons to that. You can also see that it dropped to that bull market support band in September. And and actually, that one has a lot of similarities, uh, in terms of sort of the the capitulation low, right? And then a rally back up and then kind of sideways where it doesn't quite tag the 20-week SMA. You see that kind of a similar thing, right? Up and then sideways where it doesn't quite tag it. It gets another move up and then sideways and then back down in September. So, I I think that's what's happening right now.
Another thing to remember too is that even in 2020, the move that Bitcoin got after this drop in the first quarter, the move had a local top in August, and that local top was 12.4 to 12.5,000. Right? So, if you look here, if we just grab a price label and put it at that very top, right about there, it was about 12.4 to 12.5K. And you'll notice that this one that we just had, uh, just a couple, you know, few weeks ago, was at around 10x that, right? And I don't know what it is about 124 for Bitcoin, but it tends to find resistance at that level. And you might say, well, that's only two data points. You're kind of reading into that a little bit. H probably. Um, but the other thing to remember is that in 2013, Bitcoin also found resistance at 1.24K, right? So, it just seems like it's a number that that Bitcoin will struggle with a little bit.
Now, you might look at at this top and say, well, are we have has Bitcoin already topped for the cycle? Um, the this top actually occurred in November of 2013, right? That was a November top. And then the top we had over here in August of 2020 or in 2020 was actually in August, right? So that's an August high. This is an August high. Um, hopefully, there's another move later on. Uh, obviously, there's no guarantees, but right now, I I think the most likely outcome is that Bitcoin checks in with the bull market support band. Um, you know, within the next few weeks, right? Like I don't think we're going to make it through the entire month of September without checking in with that bull market support band.
You should also note that there's always a chance we go below it. We we did see Bitcoin go below the 20-week estimate, uh, in 2023 and 2024 and even early 2025, right? So, it's happened many times. It's not like we're immune, uh, to that happening again. For me, when we talk about these moves, it just seems like that's a reasonable target in the short term. If if and when we get there, then we look around and we assess the market and try to figure out, you know, what's going to happen. Um, but for now, I would say that the bull market support band is where the bulls will at least attempt to fight. And you can see in 2023, something similar happened, right? Where where, you know, Bitcoin fell back in to the bull market support band, but then it actually ended up falling below it after the bulls, you know, I guess ran out of out of steam or whatever. And then it ended up dropping below it and and then ultimately Bitcoin recovered.
What I would say in terms of, you know, the overall market cycle and and when it will end, um, is well, first of all, no one actually knows. I mean, there's a lot of people, you know, a lot of personalities that that claim to know, but no one actually knows. I would argue that on a couple of weekly closes below the 50-week moving average, that would be a sign that the cycle would be over, right? And we haven't actually had that this cycle. We've had a couple of close calls, but every single time we've gotten down there, Bitcoin has managed to escape and then ultimately go on to put in new all-time highs. If you look back at prior cycles, even last cycle, you can see that Bitcoin, you know, maybe had one weekly close below it, but it ultimately went on to put a new all-time highs. And then once it started getting multiple closes below the 50-week moving average, that was a sign that the cycle was in fact over.
If you go back and look at the cycle before that, you know, once Bitcoin had these weekly closes below the 50-week SMA, you know, there was still a rather large drop ahead, right? A 60% drop back then. Uh, in in 2014, once Bitcoin got a weekly close below that 50-week SMA, you know, you basically had a 60 to 70% drop. And then in 2021, when you had that weekly close below that level again, it was about a 60 to 70% drop. So, I I think the argument here is that as long as Bitcoin holds the 50-week moving average, then it's always possible for the cycle to to go on.
If you look at the ROI from the low for Bitcoin and you just compare it to the last two cycles, you could see a reason for it to maybe have another push potentially in the October time frame. Um, but that's what I'm thinking. The other thing that I've I've expressed many times is that I think Ethereum from whatever the high is, if if the high is in or whatever the high ends up being, I think Ethereum will likely have a 30% drop, uh, from from the August high to the September low. Okay, I would expect about a 30% drop. And, you know, if that's true, then it would likely mean that Bitcoin does dip below the 20-week SMA. It could be a wick, could be a couple weekly closes down at the 50-week SMA, right? Like anything's possible. Um, but just keep that in mind that, you know, my base case for now is that any rallies in the short term by Bitcoin, uh, while they could be exciting, right, will likely still visit the 20-week SMA. There is, if you look at 2020, there is still even a chance that, you know, you're you're sort of in this wick down. It could still wick back up one more time, uh, and still the scenario I O could play out, right? I mean, there's there's a non-negligible chance that Bitcoin could go up 5, 10% on some type of random, you know, random move and then drop to the 20-week moving average, right?
So, I I don't want you to get caught up in in, you know, these shorter-term time frames. I'm just trying to communicate that some of the times when it looks like things are obviously playing out in a specific way, right? Like if everyone gets bullish or if everyone gets bearish, uh, sometimes in the short term, the market will then sort of flip the script and then make everyone FOMO in or panic sell before then doing the move that seemed like the most rational one. Um, again, markets are are irrational, and and you shouldn't attempt to try to to try to reason with some of the moves that often happen, uh, in the markets.
So, for me, what I what I'm saying essentially is that I I would expect Bitcoin to to visit the bull market support band, uh, before September is over. If it if it remains too weak before we even get to September, then that more so opens the door for going below the the bull market support band. Um, but, you know, there's there's certainly no guarantee of that. I would argue the main first stop for the bulls to come out and defend is the 20-week SMA, right? That's the first stop. That's the first step for the the bulls to try to defend. If they can't defend there, then they'll try again at the 50-week SMA. The cycle continues until you get, in my opinion, until you get two weekly closes below the 50-week moving average. I think the cycle, you know, still has there's some reason to believe, right, in in in the cycle so long as Bitcoin stays above that 50-week moving average.
Whenever Bitcoin drops below the 50-week moving average, at that point, it would make sense in my mind to assume you'll have a 50, 60 to 70% correction. Probably somewhere between 50 to 70% from that level whenever the 50-week SMA fails to hold as support. Historically, it has failed to hold as support, you know, near the end of post-halving years or even in midterm years, right? You'll sometimes see it happen in midterm years where it'll bounce off of it for a little while, uh, and then ultimately be unable to to continue to hold it.
The other thing that I've mentioned as well is that I I said over many many times that Bitcoin would go to the bull market support band, but only after Ethereum puts in new all-time highs. And so because Ethereum in the last couple of videos I did on the Bitcoin bull market, because Ethereum had not yet seen all-time highs, I kept thinking, hey, like there's probably going to be a bounce at some point to allow Ethereum to run for those highs. And you can see that Bitcoin got just that, right? Pal came out and was very dovish. Bitcoin got a bounce. And on that slight bounce by Bitcoin, Ethereum took advantage and used that bounce to go to a new all-time high. But now that Ethereum has put in a new all-time high, and it's always possible it wicks up to another higher high, we're seeing some divergences in the RSI and the price. I think that divergence will come home to roost in September for Ethereum. Um, but now that Ethereum has put in the all-time high, it makes sense to assume that all right, Bitcoin is is, you know, has sort of the green light to go back to the bull market span, um, over the next, you know, few weeks, right? I I I think by the end of September, we will see some weekly closes, uh, within that 20-week SMA, 21-week EMA zone. And and there's still a chance you could see another spike up by Bitcoin. Um, you know, I was I was trying to look at at this move and and I was making some comparisons, uh, to, you know, to this move over here that Bitcoin had back in earlier 2025 where you can kind of see it was a similar thing where it it like swept a high and then sort of sold off. And so I'm I'm wondering if if we do something like this, right, where, you know, maybe this spike right there to the 50-day SMA, uh, is similar to this spike that Bitcoin had. And and and perhaps right now we're just sort of in this phase where it it might just consolidate and then spike back up occasionally to the 50-day moving average and then come back down and then in September and then it, you know, perhaps falls down in in September.
So, if Bitcoin is able to go back up to the 50-day moving average, that would likely lead to another all-time high by Ethereum. If you're a Bitcoin maxi and you don't like me talking about about other cryptocurrencies, just remember like I don't make the rules for the market. I'm just trying to interpret them and say what I think is the most likely outcome. And, you know, Ethereum has been moving up against Bitcoin since April. And rather than ignore it, you know, let's trade the market you have, not the market that you want. And I've seen a lot of a lot of people have reached out to me and and haven't been as happy about the, you know, the extensive more extensive Ethereum coverage. But as I've as I've told many people, trade the market you have, not the market that you want. And that's a lesson that I think everyone learns at at some point in their investing careers.
So my base case for now, uh, for Bitcoin is that the the local top is in. Um, as I've as I've said for a little while, right? You sweep a high and you go down. I think the local top for Bitcoin is in. It doesn't mean it can't spike back up to that 50-day moving average a couple times. Uh, but I think the local top is in, and I think that Bitcoin is likely in route to the bull market support band, uh, you know, within the next few weeks, and and then hopefully it can it can reset itself either at the bull market support band or worst case, 50-week SMA, and then continue up in October.
If you see any weekly closes below the 50-week moving average, one's okay, two's probably not. Uh, any weekly closes below that level would would start to draw, um, you know, a closer look to see all right, well, what's going on? But for now, that's my my thought on on Bitcoin and, you know, its interaction with the bull market support band and also the 50-week moving average. You guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up, and again, check out the sale on Into the Cryptoverse Premium at intothecryptoverse.com. We'll see you guys next time. Bye.