Transcription
Well, welcome to the um I don't know what the [ __ ] I'm doing show. I'm on my own here. My beautiful blonde accompanist Blondie has left me standing. So, I'm on my own coping while she's in Florida. Um and I am now out of control. So, we've got wine, we've got nicotine, and we've got shitty [ __ ] market. So, welcome to this world.
Oh, it's also hot as balls here in Little Cayman. Um, it is just gets more and more humid. The mosquitoes are coming and it's unbearable. So, the only way to pass your time is actually get drunk, look at charts, talk [ __ ] maybe insult some people. Um, I find it works for me. Hopefully, it works for you. Um, so anyway, cheers. Happy Thursday.
So, what are we going to talk about today? I think firstly we need to talk about food and wine because culture is everything even in a market that's [ __ ] imploding um every single day of our lives. Um which makes us all feel so special, right? Um so what I've got today is today is a champagne day. Why? Because it's four o'clock in the afternoon. It's hot as bulls here. So, I'm not drinking a, you know, susakaya or something. I'm going to drink something fresh and light. And champagne is my go-to drink cuz I live in the tropics and I just like champagne and it doesn't do me damage. I'm an old [ __ ] now. And it starts to give me red wine gives me migraines. Anything over like 12 and a half, 13% gives me migraines now. So, even though I collect red wine, I've got tons of the stuff, hundreds and hundreds of bottles, I barely drink it, which is kind of ridiculous. Um and then all of the um white wine and champagne that I have I drink um excessively probably. Um so what have we got today? We have 3210 a champagne by Philip Gonet um extra brute. So it's super bone dry which I really like. I'm becoming less and less enamored by anything sweet. And I really like kind of clean, fresh, dry, which is why I'm in my Alberinho phase in white wine as well. Even though Albriniah is not expensive, you know, you can get really good Alberinia for like 30 bucks. Um, you it's lower alcohol, you drink it like water, it's fresh, it's salty, it's clean, as is a brute champagne. So brute champagne or extra brute is when they finish it off. You could have brute natural, which is where there's no sugar added at the at the final moment. Uh, I can't remember the bloody name of whatever that process is called. Uh, with extra brute, it just keeps it super dry. So, Brute means dry, super dry. So, it's clean and fresh. It works on a hot summer's day. Um, if you're in Australia, tough [ __ ] But, you know, it's breakfast for you. So, champagne works perfectly for breakfast for me. Um, just don't put orange juice in it. Not in good champagne like this. So, cheers.
And then, you know, in order not to be a [ __ ] Philistine, which you guys immensely struggle with, you have awful tasting music, terrible tasting clothes, your fashion sense is basically awful. Your interior design needs a lot to be lived up to. It's um pretty crappy. And your food is like child's pallets. So, what we're trying to do is educate you on on how you have an apparativo. We've got a nice chip bowl here, but this is from Morocco. It tells stories. It tells stories from Morocco. And here we have the famous toasted pumpkin seeds in a little drizzle of olive oil, toasted myself in the oven, and um added with um molden salt on this one. And it's so good because it's crunchy, super healthy, all of the um the omega-3s and the um fibers and all of the things in it, the magnesium, zinc, all of these things. Fantastic snack. Really good. The other one is him Himalayan sea salt lentils. So again, roasted lentils, bit of Himalayan salt. Why do you want the salt? So the salt makes your your taste buds salivate and that means that you're ready for both your drink and when you got it slightly dry as well, you get this whole light dry saltiness of a fresh sea air and also prepares you for dinner. Now it's 4:00 in the afternoon, so I'm going to be shitfaced by the time I have dinner because we got a long session. We got lots of questions to get through on the Real Vision platform and some really bloody good questions. So, we put up a prize of $1,000 in USDC for questions and the best questions, the question I'm going to answer. So, that's coming up. If you do want to ask questions and you haven't joined Realvision yet, it's free to join. Just go to realvision.com/join. You will win. No, you will win. You will be part of the uh prize winning because I'm going to give out maybe another grand or two grand just for people who join today. Because if you haven't joined Real Vision, it's like really good friend of mine, Jules, amazing artist, really one of the best artists and one of the loveliest human beings. He's like, "Oh, [ __ ] I just checked out Real Vision. It's amazing." People think it's like this video platform um and of me and then they go there and they're like, "Holy [ __ ] there's a whole community of people here posting trade ideas, writing research notes. There's all of the experts on the platform. There's the AI tools. There's all of this stuff and nobody knows it's there. Well, except the tens of thousands of you who are members, but still it's an extraordinary place to find alpha on investing, the best ideas from the best community, the smartest people, and the intelligence of that huge community too. So, it it is really really worth joining. I can't express this enough. Uh we'll talk a bit about that in a bit.
But more importantly, it's like Little Cayman's quite special at this time of year because half of the you [ __ ] have gone because it's hot as balls elsewhere as well. So, nobody bothers to come here. So, it starts quieting down. And then after August, you get into hurricane season and they shut down most hotels here. And now I'm only in Little Cayman, you know, once a month, twice a month. Um, and then for some periods I come here for a whole month because I absolutely love it. You know, we've got um well, Blondie, in fact, has chickens she's been feeding. So, we've got these baby chickens that are now grown up and now come up to the doorstep of the house. And the the house is like very elevated, so in case of hurricanes and flooding. So, it's on stilts and um the chickens now come up to be fed and she managed to get a baby iguana. So, the iguanas here are like big [ __ ] sister islands rock iguanas. They're indebic to these islands. You don't get them anywhere else. and the major concentrations here in Little Cayman. And they're huge [ __ ] things like Komodo dragons. Um and so she had a baby one so big um in the house to feed it. It came up the stairs cuz it followed the chickens cuz they seem to talk to each other and explain where the free food is. Followed by a curly tail lizard. And um the other thing that she does which is very sweet is um she has a colony of hermit crabs when she's here. So there's a bunch of hermit crabs. We just all of our scrap food goes to the hermit crabs. So you don't need to compost it, do anything. The hermit crabs eat it all. But they all come in their different shells and they're different sizes. And she paints the shells because hermit crabs change shells. And then she goes on the beach for a walk and gets different shells, paints them, and then leaves them out, puts some food out, and before you know it, all the crabs are swapping houses. So it's like this house exchange going on uh whilst they're getting fed. It's just a really cool thing. And I thought, you know, maybe Blondie is just a bit weird. And then we were speaking to a friend of mine who um has been on this island for 20 years. He's like, "Oh, I've got like a colony of 100 crabs or so. I feed them all of my food and I give them shells. I found the best shell place." So, yeah, we get weird on this island. But nature is everything. In a world of AI, a world of markets moving 24/7, 7 days a week, it's really nice to just be able to connect with nature and go for a walk and see the bigger picture. And the bigger picture is is really what this is all about. It's how I try and approach everything. And you know, I know again I keep saying how painful it is for all of us in crypto. I mean, I'm [ __ ] still heavily loading crypto. Yes, we've got a lot of tech and that's amazing. But crypto is the bet that is not it's not the gift that keeps on giving. It was and it's not right now. Uh and we'll come on to markets and stuff in a second. I'll give you hopefully give you some alpha. But you know, I know how tough it is. Um it makes us all feel like [ __ ] We're all feeling poor. Um but over time, I I really strongly believe it plays out. And I strongly believe in my thesis that the layer ones are still the place to be. I still strongly believe in Ethereum, Salana, Sui for those of you in crypto. So just stick with the program. I'll come on to that in a bit.
But summer, summer's the time to go to Europe. You see, those of us lucky enough to be able to earn our money in the Western Hemisphere, you know, where the United States is the king of earning money and opportunity. The king of spending money, of quality of life is Europe. So, most of us try and head to Europe for at some point in the summer. I'm going to be heading there sometime in uh July um and spend a month in Europe. And I'm so looking forward to not eating [ __ ] awful food to be honest. You know, what do you get in the US? I mean, yes, you can get everything on Amazon delivered to your house. Uh, and then there's like 78,000 steak restaurants, fine dining steak restaurants, and they're all basically [ __ ] Um, you know, go to Galacia in northern Spain and have steak and it's like a religious experience. In the US, it's a cornfed experience. So, um, yeah, which is why most of the US leaves over the summer and goes to Europe. And you know, I [laughter] actually think about this a lot about people say, "Well, Europe's just going to become a museum." In a world of technology, which is moving faster, this exponential age where everything's going exponential. I talk about nature a lot, but the other thing that grounds us is culture and and our sense of history and place. And Europe actually does that really really well. And I notice it every time I go back, even to London now, they really trade on these experiences. And these experience are immensely valuable to us because they give us a a sense of grounding. So, you know, it's really hard not to enjoy being in Spain, Italy, France, Greece, Portugal in the summer and slowing down, enjoying amazing fresh food and people that just aren't driven in the same way. And I love that. I I really love it. Um, you know, that's the reason half of England tips out over the summer in Northern Europe, the Dutch and the Germans. A because they're [ __ ] miserable countries. Um, full of miserable people. Well, they're miserable until they get into the sun and then they're delightful people. Um, you just have to get out of that awful weather. You know, Belgium, it's all the same. Danes, I mean, look at Andreas. He's always miserable. Just needs to get in the sun a bit more, but he's he's got that Scandinavian tan, so he just burns in seconds. But the summer's here. It's time to actually kind of enjoy ourselves, relax a little bit, have a glass of champagne, spend time with friends, do all of that, and hopefully the [ __ ] crypto markets recover. Uh cuz it's getting a little bit tiring.
So before we go on to the alpha stage, real vision, we've talked about a lot. I know you're on here thinking, "Oh, [ __ ] Ellie's going to sell me something." And and yes, I am. I'm going to sell you a 70% discount. Well, it's between 50 and 70%. We got a big [ __ ] sale, a generational sale going on on Real Vision. Why? Because we got a K-shaped economy going on. We've got a bunch of people making a fortune in AI and technology. We got a bunch of people living ordinary lives trying to get ahead and are still feeling [ __ ] because your mortgage rates are up here, your credit card rates are up here, opportunity still not coming. I think it comes, but it's miserable. It's hard and we've all got to get ahead. And then those of us who thought crypto was going to be our answer, we're sitting there with um portfolios either underwater or not quite where they wanted to be. Um and so that's miserable, too. And we get that. We get that people don't have all the money in the world, but they they still we all still need to find the opportunity in all of this. We need to be able to make money. We need to unfuck our future. And that's what the whole Realvision discount is about. So, join for free or go to realvision.com/pricing if you've been sitting on the fence for ages or you used to be a member and you thought, "Yeah, maybe I don't need to anymore." Come back and see the changes. Come back and see the platform. It's [ __ ] incredible. There is nothing like it that exists. It'll change your life over time. Be part of the community. Be a proactive part. Give ideas. If you've got 20,000 people giving trade ideas and notes, you've got something that is incredibly valuable. It's not about me. Um, you know, let's instead see 20,000 people get it wrong. Um, as I got it wrong in the last year. Um, well, I got some of it wrong. Crypto badly. Technology really right. But, you know, everyone remembers you for your [ __ ] calls. But go to realision.com um/pricing. It's [ __ ] stupid discounts. And we're doing it because it matters to me. It matters to everybody at Realvision to give as many people the opportunity to participate in that economic future. and to understand why markets go up and down, where the opportunity is, how to do it. That's the important part. And I'll come into some of that in a sec. Real.com/pricing or just come for free. I don't give a [ __ ] Just come across. Uh, and also if you ask me a question and you're a brand new member, there's a,000 bucks up to grab. Um, and maybe I'll add another thousand in just because I'm feeling that way. Um, okay. I'm going to drink some wine and then we're going to get into some alpha, I think.
Um, okay. So, I'm going start sharing some screens. Random stuff. So, when we go to trading beer. Okay. So, here is the chart. I've got a log I love log regression channels. They give me an idea of how overbought, how oversold things are in a secular trend. Right, we know AI is in a secular trend. He says now pausing for a vape and it has been one of the great trades to own the semis. I'm just writing Global Macro Investor over this weekend. Um, and uh, Real Vision Pro and one of the things we've been doing is taking some money off uh, some of these bets. Took some money off Rocket Labs, took some money off um, semis. But when I look at this, semis are now 3.8 standard deviations overbought versus their log trend since 2008. So this is like La La Lands now in terms of of um overboughtness. Does it mean that they stop? Do they go down? They will definitely not be the leaders of the next phase. That's where I'm getting to on this. Um, and so I start looking at these log channels and then you get to the opposite end of the sphere and we've got actually we haven't got the log channel on ETH here but just ETH itself is yeah you know I love uh Demar indicators Tom Demar great friend of mine best technical indicators I've ever used the depth and nuance of what they have and you can get it on Trading View uh I don't know it's like 250 bucks it's nothing for what for what you get is stupid. Um, so you find the uh D mark 913 on um Trading View, but where we are is a monthly 8 and a monthly um 12 in um this is Ethereum, but they're all the same. Um nines and 13s are the full reversal pattern. So we're at the bottom of the wedge of this consolidation pattern. If you remember, gold did something very similar and then it exploded out of the range. And then when we look at Suie, which I know a bunch of you are in as well, the log channel is we we've already hit the nine count. We won't go to the 13 count. We are 1.8 standard deviations oversold. Um so I like I like this. I like this versus that. Let's have a look at gold out of interest. Um, uh, see if I can find it via, uh, let's do all. So, gold really did overshoot. It overshot to, I don't know, three and a bit standard deviations overbought. So, kind of feels like semis did. But if you remember this whole period, there was a you know 14-year periods of sideways or a four or five years period of sideway. This looks a lot kind of like ETH now. So that's kind of how I think about things. Technology keeps moving. Those of you in Realvision Pro and those of you lucky enough to be in GMI, which is separate to Realvision, it's my sort of institutional research service. Um I'm writing up about this great great rotation which I think is coming. I think there's a great rotation uh amongst a bunch of different areas. I definitely think there's some areas that's super undervalued. I think layer ones obviously are undervalued um particularly versus NASDAQ and particularly versus semis. Okay, but let's change to something else now.
So on real vision, I've built dashboards because now we're all [ __ ] AI superpowers and we can do everything. So I can just build [ __ ] all day and I'm the least technical person in the world. So what I've managed to build on real vision is one of the things is the GMI compounding machine and this is really useful for you to understand how to invest in secular long-term trends. This is how I think of the world. I've made more money from long-term trends than anything else. I ignore the noise. And I was like, how the [ __ ] can you ignore the noise? Can't you see that it's gone down this much? I don't care because my thesis is and my framework is is that these assets compound returns over time because of technology because um intelligence per unit of energy is the way the universe works and it compounds into the things that produce it. Layer ones produce massive amounts of intelligence. The coordination layer of the internet, the agentic layer of the internet, the value layer of the internet, they're just undervalued because of liquidity. And I'll come on to liquidity in a bit. So GMI compounding machine very simply that log regression channel we looked at before. So here it is again. Here's in Bitcoin and you see these green dots and it's like oh my god. Yeah, of course. If you were so lucky to be able to buy the bottoms and sell the tops. Yeah, you can. It's pretty simple. What you do is you put in your initial investment. Let's say let's make this more reasonable. Let's make it 25 grand. Okay. So there's your big chunk of savings in. you're at 25 grand and you're going to add another 25 grand. So, you're going to save furiously every time the market gets over one and a half standard deviations oversold. And when it's overbought by two standard deviations, you're going to take some lifestyle chips. So, this is what it looks like. you sold in January 2018 and we took off sorry uh we took off 20% of our Bitcoin and then we bought back in the low and then we bought again in the 2020 crash and then we sold twice in um when it got to two standard videos which is overbought in 2021 and 2022. We bought back again right at the low in 2022 and it's flashing that we should be buying now. This is why I get excited when I see lower prices. Everyone's like, "You [ __ ] scammer. Why did I lose money? I hate you." And I'm like, "This is fantastic. All I need to do is keep saving money so I can invest because it's almost impossible for me that crypto is now over. That it's never going to work. It's all a scam. It's all [ __ ] You rob me of my money, you crypto scammers." It's like, are you [ __ ] insane? It's the coordination layer for the internet. It's not about that stupid shitty coin that you bought. It's about how do you organize the agents to make payments in a digital age at the speed that they require, at the proof of of identity that they require, at the privacy that they require. All of these things require crypto rails. Blockchain technology is a profoundly important technology and AI and blockchain are married at the hip. And people think, "Oh, we're just saying that now just to try and give crypto a beard." It's like, I don't care. Just wait and see. It's obvious. It's [ __ ] obvious. Any of you who use AI, any of you using an agent or anybody who's involved in crypto, these layer ones, the programmable um smart contract layer is incredibly important to all of what what is to come. So, I look at this. Has that trend changed? No. Is the opportunity there? Yes. It's flashing. And then we've got those D mark 9. So, I look at that and I'm like, amazing. Amazing. We're back to basically the same levels we've done like three or four times before, but now we're so oversold that the opportunity set means that the riskreward on an adjusted basis going forwards is extremely high. Now you can think about that and think what's going to be higher in a year's time Nvidia in terms of percentage gains or Ethereum Salana suite Bitcoin it's very hard to argue that Nvidia doubles from here considering where we are in the compute cycle uh where we are in the semicycle uh where we are in the capex buildout cycle but for here for the applications layer of this. Yeah, I can see that. So anyway, so I'm very interested in that.
Um, when we go to the QQQ version, so now we're talking about the NASDAQ. Again, this is all on Real Vision. It's all part of the tools that you get once you sign up as a member of Real Vision. There's tons of these dashboards to help you understand what you're doing. So the NASDAQ now is where are we? We are one standard deviation overbought. 13% above fair value. Nothing wild. I mean, really, even if we took lifestyle chips off at one standard deviation, you've only done it twice ever, but you missed that whole rally. And I think you'll miss a massive rally, too. There's a lot going on in cryp in the NASDAQ right now. You've got the index inclusion. People don't realize this, and I've traded this stuff for 30 years, is the index inclusion trade. So you're bringing a monster waiting in which is SpaceX. Everything has to be weighted down. So what you tend to get is firstly so I know this is complicated. So firstly SpaceX comes out short squeeze because not all the order books were filled. Then the arbitrageers start selling that to start thinking about how to position for um post IPO pop. So you get a bit of that, you get a bit of trading, price pulls back, but the big game is the game that's happening now. It's been happening for about a week is all these arbitrageers, all of the hedge funds and some of the index funds start front running the situation where SpaceX gets bought, but these stocks, every single stock gets sold. So what you get is all the stocks in the NASDAQ or a whole bunch of them particularly the big weights get sold and so you're seeing that but the NASDAQ itself holds still and then you should see as the squeeze happens you should see SpaceX squeezing into it but the trade the ARBs are setting in for is shorting the other side and then as the um the index funds sort of computationally just have to do the trade um which is to sell those other shares, they then buy into them, closing out their shorts, and then usually it clears afterwards. So, that's a big thing that's happening that's happening there. And that's one of the reasons the market is volatile right now. We got to get this out of the way. Um, and so that's I think next Monday. Next Monday, next Tuesday should be out of the way. So volatility is there, but I I do think the rotation changes and again something I'm writing about in um RV Pro and also in Real Vision.
So let's look at the macro as well. So again, I'm just going to show off because I'm [ __ ] amazing at everything except calling crypto, right? Um I have built out these dashboards and these dashboards these are this is GMI and I'll I'll I'll create versions for real vision as well. Uh this is not released for GMI. This is me working on my own stuff. But let's talk about the everything code. The everything code is the process by which we have to service. In fact, let's just quickly go through the everything code. We got a bit of time. I don't care. I've got nothing to do. Blondie's abandoned me. So, I'm going to go and do this while she's in Florida. Um, the Everything Code. What is the Everything Code? Well, actually, I'm I'm writing a book about this. It's going to come out in October, but the Everything Code is really the most important work at a macro level that I've done. Um, and it's all about demographics. So, as the labor force as the population gets older, the labor force participation rate falls with it because old people don't work. Okay, great. We kind of understand that. You can see the correlation. It's pretty [ __ ] obvious. Then what is less obvious to people and the greatest macro chart of all time, trademarked, um, which nobody else uses because nobody understands it, is very [ __ ] simple. is labor force participation rate falling is exactly the inverse of the US government's debt to GDP. So debt to GDP rises exactly in proportion with the fall in the labor force. I.e. the magic formula GDP growth equals population growth plus productivity growth plus debt growth is old people means lower population growth. Old people means less productivity which means more debt. It's perfectly proven in this chart and that is the story of the world that we live in. And then the other story of the world that we live in is liquidity which is in it red here is the thing that pays the difference. So they print money to pay the debt. That is the everything code and once you understand that you can see it everywhere. And also liquidity is really what what's really driving debt growth is interest payments. And particularly with interest rates as high as they are, interest payments are what's driving debt growth. And so that keeps climbing the inevitable wall wall. Here we've got total liquidity includes bank debt uh bank credits and bank lending because that is part of the equation. The Fed moved away from central bank balance sheets. Then they moved to the bed net liquidity model which was balance sheets plus the TGA plus the reverse repo blah blah blah. That was really all about the reverse repo. They drained all of that. So that went and then they said and they've made it clear Scott Besson, Steve Mirin, Kevin Walsh that they want the banks to provide liquidity. That's the old model because the only two people who can create dollars in the world are banks and the central bank. And here is the bank banks creating liquidity. So that game is the game that is at play. That game is the game that then gives us an interest in liquidity. So where is liquidity right now? If liquidity is the big thing, it drives assets too. So global liquidity is going up. recently it's gone down a bit but you get this this um cyclicality in liquidity that happens seasonally and stuff like that. So there's nothing to see here except liquidity rising. As you can see it bottomed in 2022. This is when we went long the NASDAQ and crypto and have been long ever since. So I know other people have joined at different points but this is where we got long because of liquidity and it's been rising ever since and the markets have gone with it. year on year global liquidity nothing to see you know you get these these um these changes this change this change are all the dollar so the US dollar strengthening right now finally rates are coming down they will come down a lot sharper um again I don't have time to go through all of this right now but I will do on real vision again soon so rates come down sharper um also in um macro investing tool in real vision alpha we go through in excruciating detail every single week. But uh the dollar's too strong. That's what's causing this. Uh we've got the Venezuela and probably Iran sort of onboarding back into dollars. Um so that keeps a dollar bid, but rates are starting to fall, oil starting to fall. I think that all changes, but liquidity leads Bitcoin now. It keeps moving and shifting. And there's a somebody on Real Vision, Sarah Walker, who's been a fantastic part of our community, even though she bugs the [ __ ] out of me, which I joke with her about. um but holds us accountable over things like over the long run global liquidity is the best predictor of asset prices. It's been the highest correlation to Bitcoin about 85% to 87% and for the NASDAQ's about 97 and a half but she rightly pointed out that it shifts and correlations shift and different parts of the liquidity curve shift to Bitcoin. This is where I am right now. Um is total global liquidity seems to be roughly in line with Bitcoin right now. So that seems to be the dollar effect. And we'll we'll talk a bit more about this in a sec. Uh NASDAQ is like has been perfection. We called this this sort of panic area and said look this is disconnected. It's stupid. It's gone back. It trades perfectly. Going back to my US liquidity which I think is the big daddy of this cycle. Sometimes it had been China and again these are shifting variables. I think it's important to understand that things shift and there's no perfection. US liquidity broad year on year is growing at about [clears throat] 3 and a half%. Um, which is okay. It's not great and we'll come a little bit into that in a sec. Uh, narrow liquidity is um, uh, that's it outright. It's moving up again. That was the TGA. um the um government shutdown. It's kind of recovering from that year on year. Not great. So narrow liquidity. What is that? That is um Fed net liquidity plus bank securities holdings. So this is of treasury holdings. So this is the central um the Treasury selling debt and the banks taking it on plus the normal kind of central bank balance sheet etc. um and they're just starting to pick up, but they've been held back by a number of issues and one of them is the flat yield curve. Again, story for another day, but this is what's going on here. M2 is accelerating again. Um US liquidity leads the NASDAQ 100. So, US seems to be the dominant factor right now. Again, it changed over time. Uh most of this is not not a science. Um and it's all basian. So, um I know in the past everyone's got caught in the trap of like, well, the chart says this and therefore that's going to happen. You can't do that. You have to just say contextually this is right. We need to watch for changes. All of that stuff. Um I was never clear enough in explaining that to people. I mean, I've been doing this 35 years. I just assume people understood that. But they don't. Um here's uh narrow liquidity versus Bitcoin. Bitcoin's not again still not doing great. We've got these kind of liquidations going on right now, but comfortably o over the short term. Here's the banks held. This is like are the banks just def um monetizing the central bank balance sheet that's growing at about 6 month 5.4% yearly 3.8. So it's not massive yet, right? So we don't have massive monetary printing. And this is where you get into excess liquidity. Excess liquidity is the amount of liquidity growth in excess of GDP growth. Now, both measures are now positive, but they weren't. And that negative period was a negative period for crypto because if there's no excess liquidity, it will find its home in the most compounding place. And and the place that compounds intelligence the most is um AI. So, it compounded there. But now we've got excess liquidity. means there's more liquidity for investments and this helps us this happens with the business cycle too. As the business cycle gets positive, we get more earnings and you can see that we had this this is M2 version which is not as good but it gives you a long-term history is like I think we're in the 1950s phase where excess liquidity was high at all points. I think we'll do that again. It was also high in the late 90s into the boom and we're starting to go positive here. Productivity which is the main part of that formula is not yet positive versus inflation. So of that of that formula inflation is still eating productivity but what Kevin Walsh has talked about and Scott Besson's talked about is that switches. So that's a there's a whole bunch of stuff there, but generally speaking, I think the cycle extends. I think crypto, I know you don't believe me. That's fine. I've been doing this since 2013. Continue will play catch-up. I think the rotation of leads, so the darlings that you hold won't be the darlings that persist. So just be careful if you're an overly racy sector. The '9s were full of rotations. And have a plan. Have a plan about when you accumulate, when you exit. Why I didn't take lifestyle chips off the table. People like, "You didn't take lifestyle chips is because the [ __ ] indicator didn't give me lifestyle chips to take off, so I don't take them off." So then I end up adding and I've been adding in crypto and I've added recently. I've added several points around this kind of one and a half standard deviation oversold level. And I'm comfortable with that because I've done the work and I think that um the crypto trend continues over time. Um, and I've also had uh tech investments, but again, I'm starting to rotate and look at the different areas of tech.
So, okay, hopefully that adds some value. I know it's for those of you in crypto, it's like it's [ __ ] frustrating. You probably hate me. You hate everybody. Um, and then there's the confusion amongst time horizons. You know, one person's got one time horizon, other person cares about the cycle. One person says the cycle's dead. I think it's a midcycle. So, it's all [ __ ] noise. It's all just [ __ ] noise. You just have to focus on what is the big game. What is going to unfuck your future. Unfucking your future is compounding. [ __ ] uh [ __ ] up your future is trying to trade. And there are some people who are good at trading. But I I say this seriously is the best performing brokerage accounts at every brokerage are the ones of dead people. It's because they don't sell. And traders, it's very hard to meet many rich traders. There are lucky traders. There's people who do well for a period of time, but there's very few people who trade that make compounding returns. It's very difficult to do, right? It's a really, really difficult skill set to buy and hold. You could be as dumb as me. I mean, honestly, you can be absolutely stupid and make money as long as you understand where you are in the cycle, what to do, and don't panic. You bought something too high. That's okay. Do you still believe the thesis? Do you have a framework of understanding? If you have a thesis and you have a framework and you truly believe in it and you've asked your AI or gone to the real vision AI, even better, go on the real vision AI, ask it the questions. What do you think of this thesis? Go and ask the the RA. In fact, let me show you this. I haven't [ __ ] showed you this for ages. Um, let's um share a screen. I'll show you a little bit of real vision magic because it is fun. So, let's um go to AI, right? So, we've got the AI. The pulse is what's going on in markets. You can kind of it tells you everything that's been happening. You can dig into these things, find out what the community's been thinking, when they put out trade ideas, all of this kind of stuff. You can see who's been talking about it, the the notes, the ideas that have been done, all of this stuff. Great. Fantastic. Um, and that's only going to improve as we distill the intelligence held within the platform of the sentiment, the ideas, the analysis, all of this, it's all coming into the pulse. Uh, the chat is the real vision model where you can just go and ask even about look any [ __ ] video you see on the platform, any post, you can say, you know, what does this mean? So, Vitali Weber, let's just ask what the real vision brain thinks about his head and shoulders idea in micro strategies. Micro strategies, what a [ __ ] show, right? God, it's pretty [ __ ] obvious, but there we go. Anyway, it explains everything for you. Fantastic. But more importantly, it's all about me because clearly um you're the person I'm the person you want to speak to. There's the real AI mentor. Now, we're going to have more mentors. We'll have an Andreas mentor coming up as well. But this speaks in my voice trained on my content or you can chat. You can give me a chart, analyze it, you can do all of this stuff. So, you don't need to ask me a question. I mean, yes, you can on the platform, get paid a,000 bucks, but you also can just ask me stuff from my perspective. So, it helps you with that. I don't know if this is right. Give me your trade. Give me your trade idea. Let me analyze. Look, I'm an AI. I'm going to [ __ ] it up, but you know, I [ __ ] it up myself. But over time, you'll see it will really add value to it. I mean, even ask myself questions because it's trained on my content. So, it has this memory of stuff, has memory of the macro investing tool, it has macro um memory of the business cycle stuff. Uh it has also trained on wine and travel and food. So um and books and [snorts] all sorts of stuff. So it has some sort of contextualization about who is me. But it's really bloody useful. Um and it's right there at the top amongst the AIS. Go to the mentors, speak to me, ask me anything, have long conversations with me. I'm here to help. Uh and this is a really cool way of doing it. So let's go across to the Real Vision platform for the last thing. again. I'll we'll put up another I almost said I, but I'm not going to do it. Um cuz I'm skinc's gone down so much. Um the um we'll put up um a couple of thousand bucks for two more questions. So, I've got 10 already picked because they're amazing questions and actually very useful. The point about Real Vision and a community is what you get is people asking the question that the hive mind wants to hear the answer to. And that's why I've chosen many of these. Some of them are just fun, but really a lot of them is is really about what the hive mind actually wants to know. You know, where did I [ __ ] up? Why am I an idiot? What wine am I drinking? Um, did I ever get anything right? You know, those kind of things. That's what everybody's going to ask me. Um, and is it all over? That's obviously going to come up as a question. But ask, come and ask any question. If you can't get a hold of me, if you're a pro member, you can ask me questions in the AMAs always. And that's an amazing thing where everyone just comes and chats about markets and stuff. Super [ __ ] cool. Nobody else does this in the world. And um also um obviously just use the rail mentor. He's there for you. He's there to be your mentor. So come across real vision. Realvision.com/join orfree or whatever the [ __ ] it is/pricing. If you've been waiting to sign up or resign back up again, because there's a lot of you have not seen what we've done, please come and join us. It's generational discounts, stupid cheap, and it's there to help you. So, see you at Real Vision. And I'm going to refill my drink, and over in Real Vision, we'll get to the questions.