Gold Tops, Bitcoin Pops !!

Yeah. [Music] Warning. This video and all other videos on this channel are for entertainment purposes only. The content of this video and all other videos on this channel are the opinions of the creators only and do not constitute legal, trading, investment, or financial advice of any kind. Investing carries a high level of risk, and the majority of retail clients lose money. Do not invest capital unless you understand the risk and you are prepared to lose it all.

All right. Hello and welcome to Camel Finance. I'm your boy Camel, and today I mostly want to speak about gold and potentially rotating Bitcoin. Excuse me, rotating gold into Bitcoin. Once again, I want to make it clear. I'm not suggesting we're going to see physical rotation of gold into Bitcoin. Okay? I'm not suggesting the central banks, which have been responsible for driving this gold rally almost in its entirety, are going to start selling their physical gold and buying Bitcoin. That's not what I mean by rotation. I simply mean gold has been pumping, and I'm expecting it to put in at least a local top relatively soon, if not already. And as gold tops, I'm then expecting Bitcoin hopefully to catch a pump next. Okay, so this is not a physical rotation trade. The central banks, I don't believe, are going to sell even an ounce of gold. If they did want to capture the downside, I'm sure they'd use derivatives to do that. So from here on out, if you hear me use the term rotation, okay, it just means one's going to top and the other's going to pump. It does not mean physically rotating out of one and into the other.

So, I've got a few tabs to talk about that. A couple of Bitcoin things, as always. And I think I've got a pretty compelling case as to why the top might not yet be in for gold, which actually goes against what I've been saying of late, but hopefully you'll see that this is not just a random pivot of mine. I think I've got good reason for this pivot.

Been a little while since we covered risk management, but it is really important, and you can hear it from someone other than me for once. Okay, here's Peter Brandt, which says, "Many of you may dislike or disagree with what we say here. Okay, but if you trade long enough, you will understand this. Okay, anyone that bets 5% of their pot per trade will self-destruct. It's just a question of time." It's absolutely right. If you haven't seen the risk management video in the tutorial playlist of this channel, please go and check that out. It's really important. If you don't manage risk on every single trade you ever take, then you are just wasting your time here because it is mathematically impossible to succeed long term.

There's also this fun little fact, okay, which is if you take the average retail stop-loss size and multiply it by 10, you will get the max drawdown. So, if you're betting 5% of your pot on every single trade, your max drawdown is 50%. Which means you could suffer a 50% total drawdown in your account under financially stressed conditions. Something to consider and research. If you don't understand, if you're the kind of trader that does not have a fixed risk management strategy, then understand this, okay? You are on borrowed time with your career. It's just math. There's nothing you can do about it. There's nothing anyone can do about it. And if you are the kind of trader that manages risk correctly every single trade, every single time, then understand this. You are well on your path to being elite. Because the reality is most people are just simply incapable of doing that.

The wife is exiting the baby stage left behind me. Thank you, wife. Ain't nobody want to hear that.

Next up, tape slaves everywhere. What do I mean by this? For a long time, people were looking at the gold chart going parabolic, okay? Or the silver or the miners, and they'd go, "Camel, is there a dip to buy? Camel, where's the cycle low? Camel, blah blah. Oh, I'm missing out on this rally. Should I wait to the four-year cycle low? All these kind of things." And now we finally get a good dip. Anybody want to buy it? Right? Instead, everyone was pointing and is that the top, Camel? Oh my gosh, do we have to dump the whole stack? Oh, are you selling all your silver? Like, guys, relax. Okay, I am never going to act on one daily candle. I'm never going to act on two daily candles, okay? I'm always going to wait for a confirmed breakdown and then I'm probably going to give it a couple of days of wiggle room, okay? Now, that's my style. It doesn't mean it's right. It's just that's what I always do. And if you want to be the kind of trader that sees one red candle and dumps the whole stack, you know, you are entitled to do that. It's not necessarily wrong, especially if you've made good profits. I saw some of the level three members that have captured large gains over the past six or so months in the member section using the metal miners taking profit here. And that's absolutely fine. Like, many of those positions are up 140, 150%, some of them are up over 200%. So if you want to nail down 200% like that, that is never wrong. That's absolutely never wrong. But you know, don't be a tape slave, right? Have a strategy. If you're panicking and you don't know what to do, it really means you have no strategy, right? You don't have a rule set to follow. So the learning there is make sure you have a strategy to follow. Make sure you have a rule set so that you know what to do. Don't be trading blind, and don't be not managing risk. Okay? If you can just do these two things, that immediately puts you in the top 10% of traders. Okay? So it's actually very simple in theory. It's just most people lack the discipline to do it. But very simply, manage that risk. Okay? And you should never be panicked because you should know what you do. It should be a case of, if something happens, then I react like this. If something else happens, then I react like that. Okay? So once you've got that dialed, you can then be completely stress-free most of the time in markets. Now, I'm not going to lie and say I never get stressed out, cuz I do from time to time. Right? But you know, don't be a tape slave. It's not really beneficial to anything. All it's going to do is put your blood pressure unnecessarily high and make you lose your hair quicker than you otherwise might.

Back on the 18th of October, I said, "I see a lot of top callers in gold, and I've been mocking them the whole way up." I said back then, "Right now, I think they're just a tiny bit early." And remember, you don't short the top, you short a confirmed breakdown. And we don't have a breakdown yet, let alone a confirmed breakdown. So, don't jump in front of any trains. People trying to short here or call the top are just doing a falling knife catching thing. But to the upside, there's a lot of people queuing worldwide to buy it, which means that the price could probably go a lot higher, right? I was even talking about maybe even seeing some gaps up first before the top comes in. But I was saying, look, just have a little patience, and soon it will be time. It might even be this week, but we do need to get a breakdown first. It's pretty interesting if I just pull this chart up right now. So far, we don't even have a breakdown yet. Now, it looks like it's thinking about it, for sure. And it could indeed break down today. It could break down violently today, but so far we don't even have a breakdown, let alone a confirmed breakdown. For me, I like to see a true breakdown and then give it one or two days of candles or wiggle room to see if it does this. Because if it does, I'll just grab that trend line and re-encompass the wick and set us a new angle and keep pushing the trade even higher. So, everything I've said there still holds very true, right? There are really no changes. I'm not, you know, adjusting anything or moving the goalposts. This is what I always do. I wait for a breakdown and then I give it a couple of candles of wiggle room. So, I'm still maintaining even today, because this was a while ago, okay? There was no big red candle in sight. Even today, after we've had big moves down in the metal markets, relatively speaking, you know, 5-ish% for gold, 7-ish% for silver, 10% for some of those mining ETFs, we still really don't have any actionable setup here. Now, again, you can choose to sell. That's fine. Okay, but understand this. If you're trying to call the top here or going short, then you are just trying to catch a falling knife to the upside, right? That's the point I'm trying to make here.

Now, one last thing before we move on is when I was talking about this last week, I was actually expecting to start to get short here, start to see some breakdowns in the not too distant future, right? I was thinking, well, I've been saying for a long time that by about the end of October, we probably expect to get a cycle low in there. In fact, if we pull up this gold mining chart right here, this is the senior miners. You can see we drew this ellipse here for a timing window to get long in the level three member section. And I drew this timing ellipse here as a timing window to expect to see the top come in. I've been talking about getting a left-translated top here, which means top before the halfway point, which is about the middle of November. Okay, so it looks like everything is kind of going according to plan there. We've kind of made it into the expected zone where we think a top would likely come in, and then we've had what looks to be so far the making of a breakdown in some of these instruments. But now that we've got there, okay, I'm starting to think the sentiment doesn't match. Okay, my contrarian blood is starting to boil. And if you know, you know, right? And if you don't, then just start tuning in more often until you do know. But too many people at the moment are dancing on the grave of the metals, which makes me think this correction is going to be short-lived, sharp, and resolved to new highs. Now, if true, again, it would speak to having the breakdowns quickly reverse to the upside after giving them one to two candles of wiggle room. Now, admittedly, I accept more risk of missing the top by a larger margin by pushing the trade until it becomes unreasonable to do so. And if you don't want to accept that risk, then don't let anyone tell you not to take profit. But I was expecting to get here and see nothing but buy the dip. And we've gotten here, and instead, what we've got is crypto influencers yelling sell gold without ever having owned any. At the same time as everyone's talking about Bitcoin catching a pump, but every pump is getting faded at the moment. And we've got this extremely us-versus-them/tribal mentality at the moment. Base human instincts. The same people that were touting Bitcoin's going to demonetize gold. "F gold. It's a boomer metal. It doesn't do anything. It barely keeps up with inflation" are now telling you that they're dumping their entire stack of gold and rotating it into Bitcoin, even though they've got no receipts to prove it. Right? To me, it just feels a lot like they're mad 'cause they missed it, to be honest.

And the sniper here puts it in perfect perspective. Okay, the gold quote crash at the hard right edge at the moment. This is what it looks like. Gold went from about 1K up to over 4K and it's pulled back 5%, and all I see is people dancing on the grave of the metals and saying, "Ha, I told you so." To me, that's the kind of sentiment that tells you everyone was sidelined. Everyone's mad that they missed out on this, and now they're kind of like, "Yes, I'm validated. I knew I shouldn't have traded that boomer rock, right? I knew I wasn't an idiot for not taking part in this rally and going all in on the altcoins and the crypto market or Bitcoin, right?" And that makes me think that the max pain trade here is probably a nasty, violent correction just to make the latecomers suffer, that then violently resolves to the upside, and we get another higher high in here.

Decode kind of sees a similar thing. I think he says like, either gold is cooked already, or there's one final push left in the tank. And I'm kind of on that side that thinks there might be one final push here. And that was not something I was expecting to say. I was very much expecting to see these fourth angles violate and maybe be thinking, that's it. Time to go short. But like I said, I'm very good at reading sentiment. My contrarian blood is starting to boil when I look around. There's too many people sure of themselves at the moment. And that's normally an indicator that this is just going to be a temporary flush that resolves to new highs. So, I'm still proceeding with caution, but I do think based on the sentiment, we've got one more push here for gold. And if there's another push, it will be massive. Make no mistake about it. Those gaps I was kind of expecting to see this week will probably show up in the next couple of weeks after this correction is over. My lean is still one more push based on this sentiment. And either way, we can't really lose here, okay? It's been a wild ride. It already surpassed our expectations. Even if the top is in, this will be the A leg. Okay, there'll be a B in here somewhere to let us out to a lower high and a C. There'll be no repair of a trend line break in here. And okay, fine. We caught most of the move, right? We missed the bottom by a bit, as always. We missed the top by a bit, probably even less than that. Okay. And we'll lock down this big chunk in the middle. Something akin to this right here. And happy days. Okay. Good work. I did my job. I got in, showed up late after the party was already thumping, and I left right before it started to get really weird. Okay, that is my job as a trader. Get in, take some money from the market, get out. So, we can afford to push these trades a little while longer just in case we get some insane oers ABC and then violent rip to the upside. Okay, we'll find out.

As always, right, some of these assets have got breakdowns. We'll give it one to two candles of wiggle room to see what happens. And some of them are just into support, as I said earlier. Potential swing low here, ready to move higher, right in the window for a half cycle low as well. And silver. I know people are a bit scared of this. Okay, but again, it's miles away from my trend line, isn't it? One day at a time, as always. Make no mistake about it, though. If that's not the top, then the next slingshot move will indeed be a slingshot move. And the only way we're going to find out is if we continue to push these trades until they become unreasonable to do so.

Socrates also pointing out here that he thinks gold is only in phase three of a hyperwave. He also thinks it's got an overextension from the phase three trend line. And as such, he's thinking that we're about to find a local top here that puts the price back to 3 1/2K in the months to come before full send to 7 1/2K plus. So here's the hyperwave on the weekly time frame. Okay, phase one, phase two. We're in phase three now. And as you can see, the distance between where the price is and the phase three line is quite extended. Now, if we zoom in a little bit here, Socrates thinking we probably get some kind of correction, touch the phase three line, and that sets up a big push from there, much, much, much higher. And I guess I'm kind of calling for the same thing. If the top's already in, that makes a lot of sense, right? We have to reset the weekly cycle. But I actually wonder if what we're going to do here is just kind of blast higher one final time, and then we'll get a nasty correction back to the phase three line that will take a long, long time to kind of resolve itself. Either way, though, I think you can see based on this, like the top callers and the people trying to dance on the grave with the metals, they just don't have the long-term perspective, right? It's all a matter of time frames. And also, shout out Socrates for the FOMO Finders. He's also the author of this. Getting a little bit of purple at the hard right edge. Going to zoom in here and take a closer look. You can see there's more and more flashes of purple in here, right? And the current vibe is uncertainty. So, probably suggest we're getting closer and closer to a bottom each day.

And also, as I was kind of alluding to at the start, there's probably a rotational trade coming up here. Again, not in the physical sense, but this is the Bitcoin to gold ratio on the weekly time frame. Okay, notice the trend line touches right now. We've just wicked it. Okay, thinking about thinking about having a breakdown here. And here's the key part, into a weekly cycle low time frame. Now, I know this is daily 'cause it's the Camel indicator, but it's on the weekly time frame. So, these are weekly cycles in this instance, meaning we're getting ready to find a bottom here. If I pull up the Brea, you can see getting ready to cross down the bottom. And you've got to think, right, if there's one more high to go in gold, that would speak to a quick flush just to violate this trend line, get the fake breakdown into the weekly cycle low, and then see it snap back to the upside. If the top's already in, it probably speaks to this ratio getting right back up into this kind of 34 to 35 ratio without Bitcoin moving at all. If Bitcoin just stays still and gold breaks down significantly from here, that'll get us right back up into this neighborhood. Okay? And then if we can actually see that rotation as we normally do, just like this kind of chart here where we see gold put in a top and Bitcoin start to move. We see the same thing here. Gold puts in a local top, Bitcoin moves to the upside. Same thing here, right? Significant top for the precious metals, and Bitcoin then goes on a big run thereafter. So, if we can see the same kind of thing again, and we're already up here having seen gold top and Bitcoin just trade sideways, then when Bitcoin actually breaks out, I think we can actually continue to target that 65 level, which would see Bitcoin trading at around 200K end of year. So, I'm not ready to discount this yet. I certainly can't be bearish into a weekly cycle low here, which is what this is. We're right in the timing window in the next couple of weeks to see a major bottom and a swing and a reversal from here. And then even if you're extremely bearish Bitcoin, you still have to expect this thing to have a counter-trend bounce for a good few weeks first before then rolling over and breaking down. It's highly unlikely into a weekly cycle low to just die from here. And again, remember historically when gold does put in a local top, we do see Bitcoin moon. And so it would leave once again, wouldn't it? Bitcoin looking something like this. Again, I know it just feels impossible. Even I have to admit, we're very late cycle. The every day that we do not moon for Bitcoin becomes less likely that this is on the table. But at the same time, I know objectively speaking, we're into a weekly cycle low here. Okay? It's only a number of weeks here before we do at least get some relief to the upside. In the worst-case scenario, and in the best-case scenario, we will get this at a time where a perfect 60-day cycle is just nine days away for Bitcoin, which should also be the weekly cycle. Meaning, we enter the timing window in just three more days. Okay, we are three days away from entering the daily cycle low window, which is also the weekly cycle. Here also aligns nicely plus or minus a week, as it always does, with the 106-day cycle. And then we have really got a chance. And then remember, because we're only two weekly cycles away from the four-year cycle, we'd expect this cycle here, this weekly cycle, to left translate, meaning it's probably going to top within three months of that low coming in. So if that low comes in perfect day 60 at the end of this month, let's say about 90 days, three months time would be the end of January. Okay, we would expect a left-translated top to come in before about the 29th of January, and then it will be time to start to head lower and lower for the four-year cycle low. But again, I'm getting increasingly concerned here because once this weekly cycle low is in, like that's it. That's the final line in the sand. We're only two weekly cycles away from the four-year cycle, we can't be tolerating any lower lows below that weekly cycle once it's in. And if this thing is not on the table, right, if we're not going to have one final high in it, then once we get to this weekly cycle, it will do something like this and roll over. Okay? And at that point, we have to cut the trade and go defensive.

So, super interesting times. We are down to the wire. And the question really is, can you maintain laser focus and not be a tape slave? Right? Stick to the system as we are in these more and more intense times with more and more uncertainty just around the corner.

Just before we do some TA, I wanted to show you this. I'm not sure. I didn't ask permission for the team to show you this, but I don't think they'll mind. We are currently working on this trend line indicator. I've got done a replay tool here. I'm going to click play. Okay. And you'll see this thing continues to paint a trend line over the top. And then when the breakout comes, what we're working on here is having a live notification system for the breakout to the upside. Okay? So that means you won't have to ever look at the chart, in theory. Okay? We'll just let this thing do what it's going to do. Upon getting a breakout of trend line, you'll get a notification, and then you can just come here, get long if you need to, if you want to play the trade. Okay? And of course, set your stop loss. Then you can just go on holiday and continue to live up in the Bahamas or whatever you're doing with your life. It's also got these labels in place, okay? And the labels tell you whether it's a type one, type two, type three, or type four breakout. So, I thought this is pretty cool. I wanted to share this with you, but it means that you can just allow this thing to draw you the lines, okay? And then ping you a notification when something is breaking out or breaking down. Pretty cool. I'm pretty sure in the not too distant future, probably once we got the first swing for that A leg in here. It should start to paint more trend lines underneath it. And then again, it should be able to notify you when you get a true trend line breakdown, so you can take action there. I thought this is pretty cool, right? I don't think there's anything like this. So, I wanted to share this with you. Of course, we'll let you know when this thing is ready. And this is what we're doing behind the scenes all of the time, right? We're always trying to see if we can continue to add more edge and more alpha to my trading system. And then, of course, we'll share that with you guys. But anytime we can take the load off of me and off of you guys as well, then I think that is beneficial because that's more time we can go and spend doing other things that aren't staring at the charts and being tape slaves. Right.

So, here's the S&P 500. We are just a few ticks away from getting a new all-time high and confirming that that indeed was the cycle low right there. Reset in one daily candle. Pretty wild. Unless we get a new all-time high, then this thing can still roll over, and that would actually be better. I think that'd be healthier. So, we'll see. Little bit of indecision here. I am still cheering on a second drive. Okay, because if we can get a second drive to a new lower low, that sets up a very, very clean and textbook two drives pattern into the cycle low window for us to structure a trade around and get an add-on. I don't know where all my TA is at the moment. There you go. Got a few extra things on here. We'll see if we can get to new highs. If we do, then we have to confirm this is a new cycle that's begun. And if we can get an undercut, then we'll just drag these arrows across. Wait for the indicator to pick the low for confluence and hopefully get to add another trade out of there. So, no real changes to that. VIX does still look well and truly topped, doesn't it? On its way down to new lows, I hope. Russell 2K still pushing, so we'll let it.

I think we've already kind of done gold to death, but the the message is pretty clear for the precious metal markets, right? Let it do what it's going to do. This is right in the window for a half cycle low. Okay, if it starts to break down and confirm those breakdowns, then I can take action. And if not, then we'll just continue to push the trade until it becomes unreasonable to do so. Same is true of silver. Looked kind of bad if you bought the top. But if not, fine. Here's Silj. You can see yesterday firing warning signs. But if this closes back above the trend line today, okay, and then pushes off the following day, then we just grab this and encompass this and this becomes our new line in the sand. We've done this dozens and dozens of times on this channel. We're not really changing anything. Just continue to push the trades until it becomes unreasonable to do so. Bitcoin, I think we've also done to death, right? No real changes there. We are, like I said, three days away from entering the window. We're about nine days away from a perfect 60-day cycle low, which should be the weekly cycle low reset. The Brea down the bottom is looking like it's getting ready to cross on both the daily and the weekly time frame. Okay, so maybe a couple more weeks for gold to stage its final lockout move here. Maybe gold's going to do something like this. Okay, just blast off slightly higher. One final big push into the end of the month, then it can truly top, then it can truly break down and wreck everyone. And of course, as it does that, hopefully we can see Bitcoin find its low and moon to the upside. That will sort out the whole Bitcoin to gold ratio and head for that 65 target. And realistically, despite all the volatility and all the uncertainty, and even me starting to think I'm pretty bearish here based on how much of the cycle we've used up, the absolute truth of the matter is things will have largely speaking been going according to plan, just with some wobbles along the way. But I mean, we haven't really taken any damage here. And again, if those breakdowns confirm, then I mean, yeah, sure, we missed the top by a bit, but we're always going to miss the top by a bit. And again, that's not our job to top tick, is it? Our job is to catch the meat of the move in the middle. So, we can't really lose here no matter what happens.

Things like Newmont firing some warning signs as well. So, it's definitely time to pay attention here. Time to look out for lower high bounces, but at the same time, I think one day at a time, keep doing us, and everything's going to be all right.

So, I'm your boy Camel. Hope you're doing well in life. Hope you enjoyed today. And until next time, all the best from me. Cheers. Bye.

He's the man to see.

Rocking the markets with his contrarian scream.

Trades like a pro.

No fear, no shame.

Sticking to his guns in his money game.

He's a bad ass.

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