Transcription
I'm sure that you are actually considering flexing a tight end this week. So, our quarterback tight end DST ranking is going to be pretty important. I want to go position by position for you here. Let's not waste any time. This is going to be S tier.
I think we could very easily be convinced to move Patrick Mahomes ahead of Josh Allen. And honestly, as we sit here, I am starting to realize that that may be something that we need to do. Just go ahead and give me one second because if we look at what we actually have when it comes to the implied team total for these quarterbacks. I mean, you are sitting with, dear god, Patrick Mahomes with a 30-point implied team total. And with that in mind, it would be reckless for me to put any quarterback above him because you do have the rushing upside so far this year with Patrick Mahomes as well.
So, I actually may not only move Patrick Mahomes ahead of Josh Allen as QB1, which is something that again, I think we just frankly need to do looking at these projections, but we may actually move Lamar Jackson ahead of him as well. But, let me go ahead and let's pull this right back up. I had to make this update real-time here because, yeah, I mean, I'm just a straight-up clown if I'm trying to come through and tell you that Josh Allen's the QB one this week. Now, he's the quarterback one on my team, so maybe I'm a little bit biased, but if you are looking at the S tier quarterbacks, Mahomes averaging 24.7 points per game at the moment. Um, that is more than Lamar, that's more than Allen, that's more than Jaylen Hurts. And this week against Washington, you do currently have the Kansas City Chiefs projected out to be the second highest scoring offense in the NFL this week, actually only behind the Indianapolis Colts, who we'll get to in one second.
Going up and looking at the floor that Patrick Mahomes has given you. You've only had one game this season with fewer than 22 fantasy points and that was back week three against the New York Giants. And I can already see people in the chat talking about Jackson Dart. And we'll get to Dart in one second here. And I understand that maybe you are having to consider streaming him because of the by-weeks. Like we do have some quarterbacks on by.
Now, let's move over to Lamar Jackson. Lamar did practice today and obviously practice yesterday as well. So, the expectations for Lamar Jackson will be that he is playing. Like the spread on this game's absolutely massive. I think the Ravens are favored by about seven and a half points. The Ravens currently project out to score 28 points in this game. And it's not like we are just randomly coming up with these on flockfantasy.com. These are actually sportsbook projections here. So, it's not like we are randomly pulling these and going, "Oh, I know ball. I know how many points the Ravens are going to score." No, these are the implied team totals derived from over-unders and spreads of real sportsbook providers. We just pull them in on flockfantasy.com.
Then looking at Josh Allen. Josh Allen is my quarterback one. I had to stream Aaron Rodgers in replacement of him last week while he was on by. He's playing at Carolina. They're favored by about, I want to say seven points in this game. Maybe it was six. We'll see in a second. But regardless, when it comes to Josh Allen, he's been much worse since week one. Week one, he gave you the 38.8 points. Really, the only guy you're seeing do anything like this is Bo Nix last week. Um, I really hope that we can start getting some more rushing touchdowns where you've only had two separate games where he scored rushing touchdowns this year. I still view him as an S tier quarterback. I just think that it's safe to say that we have to have Mahomes ahead of him. And Mahomes is already outproducing him. And Mahomes' offense projects to score about three points more this week.
And then we will have Jaylen Hurts who against the New York Giants a few weeks back gave you just about 20 and a half fantasy points. And Jaylen Hurts has just been wildly consistent. Like you've come to know what you're expecting from Hurts year in and year out. Going back to 2021, including this season, every single year, he's averaging at least 20 points per game. And over the past three seasons, he's averaging almost exactly 21 points per game. So, you always know what you're going to get. And I will say, of course, that he's most interesting in a four-point passing touchdown format because he gives you a ton of rushing upside.
Now, pulling up the A tier quarterbacks, I actually think we may need to make an adjustment here as well. Um, we are going to have Drake May leading us off. Drake May has been incredible as of late, both from a real-life perspective as well as a fantasy one. You are looking at him 62 rushing yards this past week against the Tennessee Titans. In terms of passing touchdowns per game, he's sitting at 1.7 this year, 8.4 adjusted yards per pass attempt. Has actually only had two interceptions so far this season. So May has been incredible against the Cleveland Browns. It's a defense that you more so want to throw against rather than run.
Then looking at Dak Prescott, it's a tough matchup going up against the Denver Broncos. So, realistically, we may need to consider going through and putting Bo Nix ahead of him. It's just been the consistency with Dak where if you are looking at Dak Prescott, you've actually had him scoring at least three touchdowns every single game over the past month. And three of these weeks you had no CeeDee Lamb where Lamb is fully back. But if you wanted to put Bo Nix ahead of Dak, I'm not gonna fault you for it whatsoever. Right now, you actually do have Bo Nix favored in this game by, I want to say about three and a half points. The camera's blocking it real quick. Yeah, that's a three and a half point spread. Bo Nix has been much more inconsistent, of course, but in the fourth quarter of the Giants game, he pretty much dropped 40 fantasy points this past week. He gave you the two rushing touchdowns, but realistically, we haven't had a ton of rushing upside so far this year, averaging about 25 rushing yards per game and at about 222 passing yards per game. But clearly, Bo Nix is a very viable quarterback play this week in particular where he has a phenomenal matchup going up against the Dallas Cowboys.
Let me see if Underdog has projections with these quarterbacks live right now because I do think if there's anything that we need to adjust with this list, it's possibly moving Nix ahead of Dak if the Broncos are favored in this game. And you currently have Dak on Underdog higher or lower 17.95 fantasy points. Please tell me they have something for Bo Nix because I want to move Bo Nix ahead of him. Yeah, Bo Nix they have all the way up higher or lower 21.25. So the projections with Bo Nix are incredible. They probably have Bo Nix in that case projected to score more points than Drake May. Drake May's higher or lower 18.35 points. Let's see. Jaylen Hurts, is he projected to outscore Jaylen Hurts this week? Yeah, he's projected to outscore Jaylen Hurts. So, you know what I'm going to do right now is I'm going to move Bo Nix ahead of Dak Prescott. I think that honestly just makes too much sense. But of course, if you want to say, Mason, you're an idiot. You shouldn't just look at these Underdog projections and be willing to update your rankings because of them. That's the dumbest thing I've ever heard. Underdog's wildly inaccurate. I got great news for you, ladies and gentlemen. If you're a genius and significantly smarter than I am, you are more than welcome to go and take the higher on Dak Prescott at 17.95 points and the lower than on Bo Nix 21.25 points for those Sunday games. You can find the link to Underdog Fantasy in the description in the live chats in the comment section. I know people clown on us for saying this, but I'm going to continue to do it until it's not true. Underdog right now has the best promo that I've seen in the five years I've been working with them. Play $5 with Code Flock, get a $100 add into your account. This is why Underdog Fantasy is the number one sports app in the app store. And this is why um they've been the only sponsor of this channel for five years. and I've annoyed the hell out of you talking about them as of late because I genuinely think with this offer you should take advantage. Underdog Fantasy's available in almost every single state. Use code Flock. You'll get the $100 added to your account after you play your first five. You'll get a free pick as well if you sign up before the Thursday night game. That's going to be a free Justin Herbert higher or lower half a total yard. After the Thursday night game will be a player for Sunday. Um, yeah, and you'll get free questions to ask in the live streams and we're streaming every single day until Christmas answering your questions. Code Flock link in the description and comment section.
Now, let's move over to our B tier where we are going to have Daniel Jones leading us off with the number eight rank. You currently have the Indianapolis Colts projected to score the most points in the NFL this week. They have an implied team total of 31. They are about four point, I'm sorry, 14 point favorites here over the Tennessee Titans. The only hold up that you could potentially have is, okay, well, if that's the case, are you just going to see um this team go out there and run the ball over and over and over again? But I would say, hell, I mean, they beat the hell out of the Los Angeles Chargers last week and you had Daniel Jones with 34 pass attempts, so they are willing to throw it.
Now, Baker Mayfield will be our next quarterback. If you had a healthy Mike Evans, he'd probably be higher here. Obviously, Baker coming off the worst game of his season so far, where he only had 11.5 fantasy points or, I'm sorry, 11.1, but that was a much um tougher spot where you are trailing against the Detroit Lions the entire game. Here, you're pretty heavily favored against the New Orleans Saints and this game's in the dome and you should have plenty of points scored by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
And then with Caleb Williams, they've leaned a little bit more on the run, but obviously a lot of that had to do with the fact that this past week they did just kind of boat race the New Orleans Saints. Um, I am fine just going through and saying like, well, with Caleb, he's still averaged almost 18 points per game so far this year. Now, the thing that's a little frustrating is the rushing production has taken a massive dip downwards where you've actually seen him fall from 50 rushing yards in week one to now over the back-to-back weeks, he's had negative rushing yards. It's a game in which you're playing against the Baltimore Ravens where the Ravens defense is now healthier than they were. And the Ravens are favored by six and a half points. So, the expectations will probably be that Caleb has to drop back more than he had.
Then going over to C tier, we're going to have Justin Herbert who's playing tonight against the Minnesota Vikings. Not the easiest matchup in the world, but you do have the Chargers projected to outscore almost 24 points. And we did see the Chargers with the injured offensive line with all their running backs down. Not only do they have no Naji, no Omari Hampton, but also now you have no Hassan Haskins. There's a real shot this team just completely abandons the run.
Then looking at Jordan Love, we have 17.1 points per game so far this season. A quarterback that just simply is not being forced to throw the ball very often. The only game that he's had more than 31 pass attempts, it was against the Dallas Cowboys. Um, I will say it's very interesting to see that he's actually been running the ball a lot more. He's up at 18.3 rushing yards per contest, which is more than we've seen in quite some time. Should be a closer game going up against the Pittsburgh Steelers, but the Steelers have had a very bad defense as of late.
Then with Joe Flacco, we know Flacco's not going to run the ball whatsoever. This past week, Flacco was actually really good against the Pittsburgh Steelers, scoring 26 fantasy points. It took him 47 pass attempts to get there. And here you're playing against the New York Jets. I actually really like Chase Brown because I think this will be the one game in which the Bengals lead and they're able to run the ball in the second half.
Michael Pennix versus Jackson Dart. I completely understand that everybody in their mom is going to hate us for having Jackson Dart this low. And again, I get it. Jackson Dart this past week when we ranked him way too low against the Denver Broncos was the quarterback two in scoring with 28 points per game. The week prior when he played this team on the short week in the Thursday night game, you actually did have Jackson Dart with 23 and a half points. And if you are looking at this game, you currently have the Philadelphia Eagles as about seven and a half point dogs against the, I'm sorry, the Eagles seven and a half point favorites against the New York Giants. So realistically, we should expect a ton of Jackson Dart dropbacks and he is going to be forced to throw the ball. And if you think sportsbooks are wrong, by all means, you go for it. Here's my take with it. While yes, Jackson Dart's looked like one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL over the past few weeks. Right now, the only offenses that project to score fewer points than the New York Giants this week are actually the Tennessee Titans and the Cleveland Browns. you actually have the Miami Dolphins projected to score more points than the New York Giants. So for me, I, I would be scared to start Dart. Like if you go over and you look at the projections for Dart right now on Underdog, he's also currently higher or lower 15.55 fantasy points. Michael Pennix is higher or lower 15.75 where the Atlanta Falcons project to be one of the highest scoring offenses on the week. They project to score eight more points than the Giants. Now, of course, Atlanta's going to be a lot more run-heavy. Um, the Phil, I'm sorry, the New York Giants are going to allow Jackson Dart to run way more than Michael Pennix ever will. So, I would go ahead and if you're chasing ceiling, you could go Dart over Michael Pennix. But regardless, I think they are in the same, they are in the same tier. Amex says they were projected as a bottom three offense last week. Yes, that is a 100% true. I don't know if y'all know this, but projections are not 100% accurate. They never will be. But the question is, can you be more accurate than Sportsbook projections? And my take with that is a lot of y'all, including myself, would have a very difficult time claiming to be.
Now, let's move over to what we have with the tight ends. And y'all are going to hate me for a tight end ranking coming soon. We have Tyler Higbee right now as the only S tier tight end for me. If we are looking at Tyler Higbee, the Indianapolis Colts project to be the highest scoring offense in the league. Tyler Higbee has been incredible from an efficiency perspective, averaging 2.25 yards per route run, 21% of his team's target share. And as a rookie tight end, he's been the tight end three in fantasy points per game. So Tyler Higbee, super easy start. I think the only tight end that's in the same tier with him rest of season is going to be Trey McBride. And obviously Trey McBride on the buy.
Now this is what's going to get people upset and I completely understand why. Yes, George Kittle was god awful. And I mean, he was horrendous his first week back in. He comes through and scores a whopping 0.0 fantasy points. He has two targets, zero receptions, zero receiving yards. and he has a really tough matchup going up against a great Houston Texans defense, but Ricky Pearsall is not practicing. Jauan Jennings is injured and I don't know if they can give Christian McCaffrey 40 touches a game going into the future. So, I think we are about to be in line for a massive Kittle breakout. And if you were considering benching George Kittle, I think you are absolutely crazy.
And yes, y'all are going to hate me for the Jake Ferguson ranking. I completely understand it. Let's go over and let's look at Tucker Kraft real quick. Um, Tucker Kraft has 10 targets this past week. I mean, Tucker Kraft is just sitting with a very consistent target share. And this is a really nice matchup going up against the Pittsburgh Steelers where again, this Steelers defense has looked very bad. And Tucker Kraft so far this season is averaging almost 20% of his team's targets. And I don't think Christian Watson, his first week back in, plays many snaps.
Now, if you want to scream at me that the tight end one in fantasy, who is averaging 17.2 points per game, needs to be ranked as the tight end one in the weekly rankings every week going into the future, I'm not going to fault you for it. If you were making your rankings and you wanted to put Jake Ferguson as the tight end one in fantasy, again, you do you. But for me, it's a tough matchup going up against the Denver Broncos. If we are looking at Jake Ferguson, how has he been producing with CeeDee Lamb? How's he been producing over the past two weeks? Has he been producing with the target volume that we saw at the beginning of the season? If y'all remember, Jake Ferguson was our number one boom candidate after you had the CeeDee Lamb injury. The reason was, it's like, oh, Lamb goes down. What should we expect for Ferguson targets? They're going to go through the roof. And you see this stretch of games in the middle of the season, 12, 14, seven, nine targets. He's averaging over 10 targets a game. Incredible. That target volume has come down dramatically as you would expect it would with CeeDee Lamb. Jake Ferguson over the past two weeks has had 29 and 33 receiving yards. Now, yes, over the past four weeks, the man's sitting here at the same time with six total touchdowns. So, with six total touchdowns, I think you can be very excited. And I'm not gonna say like, oh, okay, we need to rank him below the, like obviously all these tight ends are must-start options. If you have two of them, you play them um in your flex, but the target volume's down. The Cowboys offense projects to score fewer points than it normally does. You have significantly more target competition than what you have with these other guys like Tucker Kraft and George Kittle. And do I think that Jake Ferguson all of a sudden's a better tight end talent than George Kittle is? No, I do not believe that. Even though this past week it would indicate that they do. But again, when I'm making these rankings, I'm not just default sorting by previous points scored. I can see just like you can on flockfantasy.com. Here are their PPR points per game. I understand that Jake Ferguson's currently sitting at 17.2. I have eyes. I know he's the tight end one in fantasy. Can we look into the future? Let's look at the projections right now on Underdog. George Kittle higher or lower 55 and a half receiving yards. What's Jake Ferguson at? We're Kittle's at higher or lower 55 and a half rece Oh, Kittle's at, I'm sorry. Jake Ferguson's at higher or lower 37.5. So, if you could sell Ferguson for Kittle, I would consider it to be honest.
Okay, now let's move this to a massive down tier at tight end. Like the top four tight ends. You can argue that Ferguson should be one. You do you. But I don't think you can argue that the top four tight ends are the top four tight ends. Now that we get to B tier, these are the tight ends that if you have one, you probably start them with the by-weeks. You could consider flexing them if you are absolutely desperate and you are in a a deep league, but I am going to be starting Dallas Goedert myself this week. Again, Dallas Goedert has been running hot with touchdowns. Goedert only had three targets this past week. They all got flooded to the wide receivers. The week that he played the New York Giants on Thursday night, he was the tight end one in fantasy. He scored 26 points. It was phenomenal. I was super excited. Do I think I'm going to get that myself this week? Nope. I think Dallas is going to get hit with some regression. He is currently averaging 13.8 points per game, which if you were just sorting these tight ends by points per game and then ranking them that way, you would actually have Dallas Goedert as your tight end three on the week. But I do think you're going to get hit with regression.
Now, Travis Kelce, my main thing is I just think Rashee Rice coming back in is going to impact his red zone role and at the same time it's going to impact his overall target share. Now, positive, you have the Kansas City Chiefs projected to score 30 points this week. Negative, you have Marcus Mariota under center for the Commanders. We don't know the health of Deebo Samuel yet. So, um, realistically, the spread in those games is absolutely massive, and this could be one of those contests in which the Kansas City Chiefs are just benching their starters at halftime. Dalton Kincaid, you always have touchdown upside, but you don't really ever have the consistent floor when it comes to the target share in this offense where so far this year, he's averaging at 16.1% of his team's targets.
Going over to Kyle Pitts, it's a spot in which you are going to have a considerable amount of points scored, but probably a lot of it's going to be on the ground. I'm looking at Cade Otton. If you wanted to play him tonight, not going to fault you for it whatsoever. Obviously drops 29 fantasy points last week. Looks like prime Darren Waller and the snap rates gone up every single week that he's played. Like if we go ahead and look at this, 26% of the snaps in week three, 48% in week four, 54%, 75%, 79%. He's now running a route on almost every single Justin Herbert drop back and he looks super dynamic while doing it. Um, Zach Ertz is impossible to rank right now because I don't know what the wide receiver health is going to be of Deebo Samuel, Terry McLaurin. If both those wide receivers are cleared and they're good to go, Zach would fall dramatically. Um, Hunter Henry I have on the bench currently on my team. We saw Hunter Henry back in week three be the tight end one in fantasy with 29 points. It's actually a little concerning to see the snap rate take a dip where you had a season high or not just a season high, but he was like a um New England Patriot career-high 93% of the snaps week one.
Going over and looking at Harold Finneran. I do not know the status of David Njoku right now. If Njoku plays, then I think you go ahead and move Finneran down a tier. If Njoku misses, Harold Finneran can move up this tier. And then Cade is going to be leading off our next tier. If you had both no Ibaka and no Mike Evans, then Cade Dutton would probably be up to our like tight end five. But Cade Uton just has been one of the least efficient tight ends that I've ever seen. Like you go back and look at just what he's doing year by year. One yard per route run this season. 1.4 the year prior, then less than a yard per route run the two seasons before that. Just not a good player. But of course, great quarterback and somebody has to catch the ball. But if you had no Ibaka, he'd be a lot higher. But Ibaka is going to play. Mason Taylor, we're going to have to monitor the health. Mark Andrews wasn't doing much when you had no Isaiah Likely at the beginning of the season outside of one game. So, now that Isaiah Likely's fully good to go coming out of the buy, I have almost no wishes whatsoever. Um, T.J. Hockenson almost had the big touchdown this past week. And Hockenson actually has trending to be a much better option. But I think a lot of it had to do with just how many pass attempts you had from Sam Darnold. I actually dropped T.J. Hockenson for Hunter Henry myself, but they are relatively the same. And then Evan Engram, Theo Johnson, Jawan Johnson, Noah Fant are all other players that you could consider looking at.
Now, let me show you what I do with defenses. And I'm not going to sit here and act like I am a fantasy defense expert. Actually, I'll say for fantasy football purposes, I've actually been pretty damn good at streaming these guys. Y I've seen it in the Flock League almost every single week besides one with the Seattle Seahawks. We have picked the right defense to stream. It's one of the very few things that we've done well this year. I mean, I'm sitting at five and two. It's not like we've been cooked the entire time. But what I do is I keep it stupid simple. I go ahead and go, what are sportsbooks projecting to be the lowest scoring offenses in the league? What teams should be getting blown out? Because I want to start defenses against them. The Indianapolis Colts would be my number one defense of the week. The Tennessee Titans project to score the fewest amount of points in the league. Well, at the same time, you have a spread of 14 and a half points in this game. I think the New England Patriots would be a phenomenal defense. They're favored by seven points. The Browns are projected to score about 16 and a half. I think the Kansas City Chiefs would be an elite defense. They're going up against Marcus Mariota. And I apologize to everybody who loves Jackson Dart. You actually do have Marcus Mariota and the Commanders currently projected to score fewer points than the Giants. I think the Philadelphia Eagles would be an incredible defensive play against the New York Giants as well. Seven and a half point favorites. The Giants only project to outscore the Commanders, Browns, and Titans this week. The Bengals, I just can't get behind it. I think their defense is too bad. So, while yes, they have a great matchup going up against the Jets who have god knows who at quarterback. I actually personally decided to stream the Atlanta Falcons this week myself against the Miami Dolphins where the Falcons are seven and a half point favorites. And then that's mainly because in my own league, the Eagles, Chiefs, Patriots, and Colts defenses, they were all rostered. So, I went with the Atlanta Falcons. The Buffalo Bills would be a great defense against Andy Dalton. The Houston Texans obviously have one of the best actual defenses in the NFL. Um, and then outside of that, I think all these are shakier plays. But I think that's all I got for you.
And for the geniuses who absolutely love Jackson Dart, I am super happy to hear your confidence. And I'm sure Underdog Fantasy is going to absolutely love you going over there and taking the higher than 15.55 fantasy points for Jackson Dart. Um, you're more than welcome to continue to ride with the Giants and continue to say, you know what, the projections were wrong once. that means they're going to be wrong forever. Um, by all means, go for it. I'm sure Underdog would be happy to take your money. I'll leave the link to them in the description as well as the comment section. Code Flock will get you a $100 added to your account after you play your first five. And on top of that, you'll actually get a free Justin Herbert pick. Higher or lower, half a total yard for tonight's game if you sign up to Underdog Fantasy before the game. Underdog Fantasy is currently the number one sports app in the app store because they're available in almost every state and at the same time um they have the best promos in the industry which is why I'm being so damn annoying with this as well. And if you wanted to know what it looked like to be on Underdog Fantasy and take some of these pickums because you are geniuses. Um, here this is what it would look like. You go, I know Jackson Dart's gonna have a great game. Let's say, oh, also Cam Scataboo is gonna have a great game. I'm a New York Giants fan and I know that they're going to crush the Eagles just like they did last time. Cam Scataboo is going to have higher than 13.35 fantasy points. Dart's going to have higher than 15.55 and let's go. Okay. No, I know the um Giants won last time. So, of course, the Giants are going to win this time. So, let's go ahead and let's take Jalen Hurts lower than 205 passing yards. That would be $50. Let's not do 50 because I'm using an example. I don't think this is actually going to work. We'll do $10 and that would win a total of 87 bucks. And yes, we may or may not have a lot of money in the account because yes, I may or may not have won $150,000 in Underdog drafts a couple years back and we've been crushing those drafts ever since. But uh, again, you can crush Pick 'em. Link in the description, link in the comment section. I'll be live answering all your questions probably in about an hour, but I have an hour of free time. So, we shipped out 40 hats for y'all this morning. I'm going to end this live stream. I'm going to get back to boxing these hats up and try to get as many out to y'all as I can. But I really appreciate you and really hope I get to see you out with the live stream.