Transcription
Five NFL plays for week three in 60 seconds. In this video, I have five different plays that I think you guys should tail, but I have 60 seconds for each of them to try to get you guys to put your money on them. If you are new, it's a weekly video. Like I said, we do every single Saturday for the upcoming Sunday NFL slate. So, make sure you don't miss out on it. My name's Austin. Do me a favor. Go down below, subscribe. Simple. That's free. Also, drop a like. Let's dive into things.
Now, if you missed my previous video, I don't I encourage you to go check it out because I dropped my first two unit play of the season. It was posted earlier on Saturday. Go check it out. Includes my first two-unit play and my touchdown parlay. Four guys I like to get in the end zone. Last week, we cashed that baby to bring home about three units back to the bankroll. Let's keep things rocking and rolling going into week three.
Now, I already addressed the elephant in the room. That was my performance on Thursday night football. We lost a unit. You can see 0 and three. Only one unit really down the drain. Tough. I mean, we could have probably split there, but I digress.
Now, I've talked this before in other videos, as you should know. On Sundays is when I start to pump out a couple Dub Club exclusive plays. We've dominated the Dub Club exclusive props. They're 4-0 this season. Cashing all pretty much sweat-free. You can certainly join. The link is down below. You can get in on in there. I talked with this in the four Ps video where if you want to know all the plays we got cooked up for you guys this week, one unit player prop, we have a half-unit prop at plus 300. And I did misspeak in that video. Misspoke, I don't remember. Plus 7,000. I said plus 3,000. Actually, plus 7,000. So again, you can join. The link is down below. Only $5 for your first month. Again, here's all the different things you can uh get exclusive picks, parlays, Discord access, stuff like that. If you aren't in there, that's on you. Join $5. That's all it costs you on Monday Night Football. We'll do have a another chance for you guys to get a free month of access. But let's dive into things. Let's first one last note. I'm sorry for a long intro. I have to put this out there. This is my reminder is that we will have our chalkboard entry at the end of the video. If you are new to chalkboard, you have no idea what they are. It's like a daily fantasy app like PrizePicks, Underdog Fantasy, you name it. If you sign up using my code COS, they'll give you two things. One, boom, a free pick. Patrick Mahomes get you one yard. I mean, that's as free as it gets. It's on Sunday Night Football as well as a free $20. You don't even have to make a deposit for a free $20. Get on in there. Code COS link down below. Also, if it's in your state, if your state's in green, I need you locked in. Sign up. Code COS. Take it, take advantage of that. Hopefully I didn't disappear and stop talking. But let's keep things rolling.
I will not have my timer on the screen because well, let's be honest. I'm running on a time crunch. It is my baby shower. Well, we're having our baby shower on Saturday. That's the right way to uh phrase it. So, I'm trying to get all these videos uh scheduled for you guys on Friday evening. But, let's just get into the picks. Let's have a great week three.
First pick in the video, Bryce Young. Under 211 and a half passing yards, a one unit play, minus 115 on ESPN Bet. I'd play him down to anything. 203, 204 and a half. I I like him down there. I think Bryce Young is in for a tough spot here. And we'll talk about why. Again, you could start my metaphorical timer. I promise I won't go over the 60 seconds. Bryce Young has had an up and down start to his NFL career and really this season. I don't see it getting much better here in this matchup. I think it's a tough one against the Falcons, who will be down one of their better quarterbacks than A.J. Terrell. But again, Bryce Young has really struggled so far. Uh, and this season, sure, you could look at he threw for 328 pass yards last week, but 169 of them, over half of them came in the fourth quarter when it was garbage time. They were coming back in that game. I don't see maybe this game being that uh out of hand. And I think even if it is, the Cardinals or the Falcons, unlike the Cardinals, will play tight defense. We've seen them really limit the two QBs they faced. J.J. McCarthy sucked against them. So did Baker Mayfield, who has a bunch of weapons to throw to. He struggled. This is a team that did let Bryce Young go over against them last year, but he did it in overtime. All the yards came in overtime. I see him struggling in this matchup. This is a really good pass defense. And my last note for him is you look at his completions line set to 20 and a half. If you look at his 25 plus completions, that's about plus 350, plus 400 in 25 career games where Bryce Young has not completed 25 passes. He's gone under this line in 19 of 25 games. So again, really tough matchup here. The Falcons secondary, despite being down A.J. Terrell, really good unit. I also have no faith in the Panthers defense to be able to get off the field, stop Bijan. Tyler Allgeier. If the Falcons get up in this game, they could just be running, running, running, running that clock. Bryce Young, I don't think he gets as many yards in garbage time this week. Give me his under. First play of the day.
Second pick. I know you guys don't like unders, so I got an over for you on the house. Let's talk about George Pickens. Love his over. 22 and a half yards for his longest reception. Minus 115 on DraftKings. I like it at 23 and a half. I'll be honest, I almost loaded him up to 30 plus, but that's plus 160. And I almost considered a 40 plus which was like plus 400 give or take. I love George Pickens to just catch one pass that's over 23 yards. Now I do expect a better game from him, but if he just wants to do one for 23, we'll allow it. Let's talk about all about George Kicking, uh, Pickens. Start my timer. George Pickens in week one did not get it done. He did draw a long pass interference like 35 yards, but didn't come through or worth noting, but I think this is a better matchup for him. Now, last week he did come through, although it did take overtime for him to finally get over the slide, but it's not like he didn't try. He had two passes and drew two pass interferences of 22 and 23 yards. So, again, he was right there. He just kept getting held on the plays. I think this is a great spot against the Bears. The Bears secondary now down Jaylen Johnson. They stink. And I really think you're going to be continue to target George Pickens down deep down the field. We saw two guys for the Lions hit this over last week. Jameson Williams did it twice. I forgot to mention Isaac Yiadom. They actually had three guys including Amon-Ra. And week one, J.J. McCarthy really didn't do a whole lot. Aaron Jones and Jaylen Naylor did technically both hit this line. I don't think I need to really go hard into it. Pickens is a deep play guy. I think they'll be focused trying to stop CeeDee Lamb, maybe. I don't think they can. I think Pickens gets two, three deep opportunities. If you continue to hold him, you're going to piss me off. I like it for a half unit. Only going to play long reception props for just a half unit because there is some variance here. Uh, DPIs and stuff like that could really nuke you. Uh, it's gonna be one play, but it can cash on the first play, which is unlike any other play really out there. Love George Pickens. One big catch. Go get it done.
My third play is going to be a plus 400 play. Let's talk all about these two fellas. It's on FanDuel. You'll see it. Ja'Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson each to have 25 or more receiving yards in each half. So, they need 25 at halftime each and 25 or more in the second half. So, maybe you have to do some mental math at halftime. Hopefully, we can survive the first half, move on to the second half. This is plus 430 on FanDuel. Cropped out the value to give you a cleaner so it wasn't all scrunched up, but plus 430. Played it for a half unit to win back about one unit. Um, if you watched my four P's video, you can start my timer if you want to. If you watched my four P's video or the play we posted early on Saturday with the two-unit play, you would maybe know Justin Jefferson's over in yards is on that card. Don't want to spoil one of the plays. He's not the two-unit play, though. He's just a one-unit play. But I like Ja'Marr Chase. I like both of them. I I don't Do I really need to go hard into it? Carson Wentz now starting for QB for the Vikings. He can't literally be worse than J.J. McCarthy who only had, you know, 24 pass completions so far this season. And then Ja'Marr Chase, well, I don't know if he gets 14 catches like he did last week with Jacob Browning under center. Still think he's going to be heavily targeted in this game. Jacob Browning, he'll get opportunities. Just uh Ja'Marr Chase obviously one of the best wide receivers in the league. And I mean, these two guys are friends. Played at LSU for two years together. You know, they want to go out there and one-up one another. Arguably regarded as two of the top three, four, five wide receivers in football. Definitely top five. These guys will put on a show in Minneapolis. Love both of them to get 25 yards. If you're like Austin, where do you find that? You go to FanDuel. It's normally under the receiving props tab obviously. And it's like under game specials receiving. I like it at plus 430. Might have switched down to like plus 410 give or take. I like it. Ja'Marr and Justin Jefferson. We need big days from both of you.
Let's move on to my fourth play. It will actually stay in the same game. It's on a receptions prop and it will be on Chase Brown. Uh I love his over two and a half receptions at plus 102 on FanDuel. Again, just a half unit to play. You're not going too crazy. It is a running back receptions prop. It can cash pretty easily or you could be just standing out there waiting for Chase Brown to get targeted and for it never to come. But I do think he gets three, maybe four receptions, but that's four is like plus 225. I like it. I love Chase Brown, though. I think this is a great spot to target his receptions. Now, if you're talking about the Vikings, and we can start my timer. Uh look, the Vikings are a team that uh run a lot of two-high safety, but also provide a lot of pressure, but they're still dealing with some linebacker injuries, which is why I think Chase Brown could get some looks. However, they're going to get some pressure on a guy like Jacob Browning. And given Joe Burrow is already injured, we can't afford Browning taking some hits. I think he dumps it off quick to Chase Brown. Now, he is under in the first two games of the season with two receptions in both of them. He did get three targets, so the targets were sort of there, but I think that this is a better matchup for him against this Vikings team. We've already seen through two weeks a running back has hit this over against him. The running backs have combined for six targets against the Vikings in each of those two games. I think this is a spot where Chase Brown, we know how talented he is out of the backfield, just hasn't gotten his opportunities given the matchups. I think this is a good matchup for him. I think he gets three receptions. For a point of note, if you were to go back to the last time Jacob Browning filled in for Joe Burrow, you'd have to go back to 2023. Who was the running back at that point? Joe Mixon, if you remember, you remember. And in that game, in his first five starts, he had three or more receptions in four of those first five. So again, he was heavily targeting him, checking it down. I think you'll see a pretty good game out of Chase Brown at least in receptions. I think he gets at least three. At plus 102, I don't know where that value is by the time you're watching this. I wouldn't play it past like minus 120, minus 125. I personally think it should be probably around minus 135. So again, at plus 102, I like it. But if the value switches, I don't know if there's any value left on it. If it's like minus 125 give or take, but I do think he has a chance to go for four plus if he does uh happen to get a few more targets, but three feels a little bit too low. My last note, Chase Brown, if you remember last year, he was a bit heavy part of this passing attack. Eight straight games to end the year with three or more receptions. Now granted, I was with Joe Burrow, this is without him, but again, I think he's a great pass-catching back. He'll get three.
Then finally, we end. We'll talk about my fifth play and then we'll end with our chalkboard slip. Sound good to you? Let's talk about a rare game pick on the card. If you missed out on my game picks video, I'll link it at the end of one this one as well as down below. We go through every single game. This wasn't the official pick I gave for this game, but it is one as I slowly dove into these games a little bit more. It's one that I find a good amount of value in. There's a clear pivot, but I like the value here and I'm not sure I would I don't mind the pivot. Let's talk about it. Is the Green Bay Packers and Cleveland Browns race to 25? Neither plus 125 on DraftKings. Half-unit play. So again, just a half unit here. Uh, you're like, Austin, what the heck does this mean? Yeah, it means that neither of these two teams could score 25 points. Now, the easy pivot and maybe your uh book doesn't offer this exact market. It's pretty easy how you would input it. You do a same-game parlay. Both teams, their regular team totals under 24 and a half. The Browns, you'll find their team total at like 16 and a half. However, the Packers team total is 24 and a half. So, again, if you just want to take the Packers team total under 24 and a half, that's fine. I like that for a half unit. But again, the difference in value is that's probably like minus 125, minus 110, minus 115, 20. This is plus 125. I like the value. I Browns putting up 25 points. The Packers have been one of the best defenses in football because you can start my timer if you wanted to. I get it's a metaphorical timer. Um, yeah, the Packers have been one of the best defenses in football. We all know that. Joe Flacco on that offense has been able to put up some points, but it's not like they're they're blowing the cover off the ball. Joe Flacco is going to be under pressure pretty much all day long. He's going to have to be taking dump downs, jump check-offs, check downs, and stuff like that all day long. I just don't see them being able to score consistently touchdowns. I think this really comes down to the Packers. Can they put up 25 or more points against the Browns? Now, we saw the Ravens do it last week. Granted, they did force some turnovers, got a pick-six or a fumble return for a touchdown. So, they had some luck there in that category, but the Browns, I I expect their defense to show up at home. This is the first road game for the Packers. In their first two games, they did put up 27 points, albeit against the Lions. And who was their game against last week? The Commanders. I would argue this Browns defense is probably the best one they've seen, and they'll get it going there. They're also going to be down Jaden Reed. So, again, I think this comes down to the Packers. I'm fine fading them individually if you want to, but at plus 125, I do like the value here. If you're looking for this on DraftKings, it's under game props for this specific game. Um, I don't think it's a high-scoring game. My official pick in the, you know, uh, the video where we go through every single game was the under, I believe. Uh, but I do think that the Browns keep this game close and I think he's going to be a lot of running. I just don't see Jordan Love. I get he chucks it deep very often. But now down Jaden Reed, a guy that's made a lot of plays for him. We're going to need guys like Doubs, who's failed to connect with a bunch this season. He's pretty good with Love. But again, Tucker Kraft also probably misses this game based on what we've seen from the injury report so far. So I like this a race to 25 neither. Only playing it for a half unit. Not a big game picks guy, but I do like that one.
Like I said, we end with our chalkboard slip. A reminder, chalkboard sign up code COS, link down below. Free pick plus free $20 without a deposit. Let's talk about this slip. I like it. You'll recognize all the plays. We've already talked about a bunch of them. Uh, you see it. Here we go. I think I messed up my slides. Whatever. Uh, you got Bryce Young less than pass yards in here. Packers, we have their less than 24 and a half team points. Cool thing about chalkboard, you can take things like that. Chase Brown and George Pickens for the lines we already talked about in this video. $20 on that plus a 10% boost, turn it to 235. Sounds good to me. Again, sign up for chalkboard using code COS, the links down below. You can join the Dub Club, get that plus 7,000 parlay, plus 300 player prop, and another one-unit prop. Those links are there. Like I said, two picks already posted, or two videos already posted. Top one is our game picks video where we go through every game. The second one, you might want to check it out. Our two-unit play of the week, my best bet of the week, as well as my touchdown parlay of the week. That's all from me. I'm going to go enjoy my baby shower on Saturday and then hopefully collect and destroy the books on Sunday. Let's get it done. I'll see you guys back again in the next one. Go check out those other videos. I'll have a chance to win a month free of Dub Club on Monday Night Football. Stay tuned for that video. But hopefully you don't need that month free. You just join. It's only five bucks. What's that going to cost? Five bucks. It's like cheaper than coffee these days. Come on. Get on in there. Links down below. See you later.