Transcription
Well, another wild day out there. Let's just jump right into it. There's a ton to cover. If you watch the public pre-market, we went through this in some detail. Uh, our biggest concerns, let's take off the fib levels for now because we also have to go through some of these earnings that came out and what they're telling us about the market and what how they moved. But there's a lot going on out there. We have that Fed FOMC meeting. We talked about how we could come down and retest that level. Well, it's the exact levels that we actually pointed at today around 8:30 when we do that public pre-market live. And you can see how we were kind of riding the lightning up here and we were unable to break that level. We talked about that and it was a big area. Then of course you have this rising wedge and then you just smashed it. All your hopes and dreams. You try to pop through it. Boom. Smashed. Matumboed again. Broke Matumbo again. Matumbbo. So it's pretty obvious what's going on out there. They're trying to hold this level and see if that demand is there. It is for now.
Now, you're going into the end of the quarter. There's a couple things here that I think are super important. Let's drop this to a bear in a 4 hour for a second and then let's put on the RSI. Um, what I want to focus on are a couple things here that I think are super important. Number one, you've broken your trend line here. So, I'm going to clean all this off and I'm going to show you this trend line. And this is really, in my opinion, the only thing that matters. So, you go to the bodies, as Mickey said, just the body. And so if you just look at this and we get this super tight against those bodies right there, you can see it broke in here and then tries to rally up and then cracks again. So you have that bare flag that starts, you have the, you know, the the kickoff of that flag and then you break. Now you have the inside bar. Now you're rolling over and we've been talking about this negative divergence that's on the S&P futures for a while now and that it's going to come home to roost. Well, ding ding. No one's going to ring a bell, but here it is.
How far down can this go? You know, you're going to rebalance at the end of the quarter and the pension funds are going to rebalance because you're going to buy more bonds and you're going to sell equities because rates dropped because bonds are going to go up and they're going to want to lock in the yield. So, they're going to sell more equities and they're going to buy bonds. And that is into the third quarter. So, as we watch this play out, this inside bar and this level right here, there's a couple key things that we have to pay attention to. Number one. That's only 1.3% that gets us to down to the end of the FOMC and these other key levels in here where the PPI came out. So, this is not really like I'm not saying that we're that far off on where we're coming. I'm not saying crash crash like I should probably put that in say it again so the algorithm picks up this video. But I think you're just working this off and that's not a bad thing. We saw it crack the other day and then it is what it is. So, just allow it to happen and go from there. You're a little frothy on some of these names.
Now, on the oversold on the hourly, you can see that very, very clearly in here that you are oversold. That is not something that is just going to fix itself. You're going to probably pop up, reset, roll over, and you'll probably be back to neutral before the morning, and then everyone will see the market bid up, and then they'll come in again like lemmings and get hit. What I do think that is significant is that some of the leading names are definitely rolling over. And there's a couple key things that I really want you guys to understand about tonight. First and foremost, I'm going to talk about the good news. I had a great short on Tesla and then I tried again. I actually wound up flipping to long at one point, which is not really where I thought I'd be today, quite frankly, on this. I'm laughing because they teased me about the name of this in the community. Um, but if I go, let's get rid of that's the put wall we talked about today. I would tune into these public premarkets, guys. And if you can't make it, I would make sure that you watch them later. I I do go over key levels. I do Q&A and then I go over what I think is most important in the first five minutes and then I just do open Q&A on it. I like doing the open Q&A because I find out a lot of uh ideas that you guys are thinking about because obviously there's 8,000 names. I can't find them all. So, you're trying to get through, but what I thought was really fascinating today is even when the market dipped, you held and surprisingly I I did not think that this was going to be the one that was going to hold of all the names, but you have you have a wedge right here at that 435. You broke out of it, you retested it, and then you just bounced off of it hard. The one thing about a level that you can always tell, and you should remember this, especially newer traders, when you have a key level, whether that's a gamma level or a support level, whatever you have there, right? The way that you interact with that level tells you everything. If you start going sideways like like one of those like warm wet trout handshakes, you might have an issue and you tend to break. If you bounce hard off of that, you have something there and you want to pay attention to it. This did that. So, I had a short in here and you could see those wicks and and it's not rocket science what happened here. You see how you're trying to go higher and higher and the RSI is rolling over. You get their negative RSI and then wham, it just broke down. It was a perfect short and I did very well with it. I was very happy with the trade. I tried again in here and it's broke down. So, I pulled something out, but then it just kind of got away from me and I did flip long and make some money on it. Just a little bit quite frankly. Uh, but I thought that 445 I thought if you got through that you could go. So, I took the shot and it just didn't play out. But you have to respect this today. And this is in a market where here I'll show you where why I'm saying this. If you took this on a five, you always want to look at relativism. So here's Tesla. And there's two ways to look at relativism. So if we're going to go here and go QQQ and we put the Q's in for a second and then we flip this here. This is why I always tell people they should always have the Q's or whatever index on their screen. So if we go to 24 when the market opened and we can get rid of the pre and the post and we'll go to the 24 when the market opens and we'll drop it to a one. And what you're going to see, it's not going to be that hard to see it on this name. Uh market hits a low, we hit a low. Market trends down and sideways, Tesla goes up. And you can really see it here with something as simplistic as just turn it into a ratio. And you can see from that level on, you know, you're up 2x. You made 2% on every dollar that you were long Tesla and short from that uh the NASDAQ from that level. So, it's pretty impressive today. And as much as I, you know, I want to hate on it, um, and I wanted it to drop because I was short, it didn't. And so, you have to respect that. So, if the market does get going, this is probably the one that you're going to want to pay attention to right now out of all these names.
And there's a couple things here that are pretty negative that I want to go over that I'm noticing. You had huge call buying in Amazon the other day. Enormous. They're just getting dumped on. It was just straight out call buying and they're getting dumped on. And I'm talking size like out unusual size and and I saw with FSLR today too. Now you never know on the other side of this do they have huge shorts on and they're putting millions of dollars into these um calls to protect them. It didn't it doesn't look that way with how far out they went on the calls. And I know you shouldn't judge it by a day or two, but when you see these kinds of breakouts like on First Solar or Amazon and I've been saying all week since Saturday really that you just need to kind of have your head on a swivel here. Uh we feel heavy and I you know 26 years of doing this when I feel that way I'm I'm usually right and I know that sounds arrogant but you just get that sense of it and the one thing that I would just use as my compass uh besides you know my feelings are if my toes bothering me I guess that's weird thing to say but you know like people get those aches and pains Soros used to get headaches when he knew that when he was going to have a draw down he'd get massive headaches it's kind of funny um but anyway if you look at these things you're breaking your you're breaking your trend lines and you We wouldn't be expecting that. We're not seeing the follow through. Not at all. I mean, in Oracle, for example, or in Microsoft, we're not seeing it. But first solar, major call buying, like massive position sizes. Absolutely trash them. Amazon absolutely trash them. That always gives me pause because that means that the institutions that are firing into the market are wrong. I don't want them wrong. I want them to be right. They are the sharks. I'm the raora. I just want to follow what they're doing. And if I'm following a shark and he's stupid, I'm gonna have a problem and I'm not gonna eat. I'm gonna die, right? Because I'm not gonna have anything to eat. So when I see that, I put the brakes on. I I can't be any clearer about that. The way that I trade and the way that people trade from being a pattern trader or even using the stool goes on the premise that institutions putting money to work actually have a clue on what they're doing. Like you try and get ahead of the order flow, but when you're watching the order flow and you're watching these guys fire into things and it's not working, you want to put the brakes on.
Something that I thought was super interesting and tells us a little bit about this market. You know, Micron had a huge run. This was a blowoff, right? The absolute blowoff. Couldn't get going. Shorted it, did okay with it, but we didn't fall apart, but you didn't rally either. So, what does this all lead us to when we look at names like SanDisk that followed down or WD uh WDC that followed down or you know the storage and the memory names all came in today, right? You know, they had a huge run. They're tired. Does that mean it's over and AI's over? No. But these things had a huge run and we have to respect that huge run and then we have to go from there. So when we see this stuff, what where does it lead us to? Well, it leads us to where my head was the other day when I said it. You know, all of a sudden we're breaking out with an all-time closing high on Nvidia. And what did they do? And I said it the day they did it, man. This is probably going to go. This is it. And then the next day I'm like, okay, so they're going to rugpull us. And that's exactly what they're setting up to do here. So they failed to break out and they lured everybody in. They did the same thing with Oracle. So then we've had two sectors that have really been leading. And what are those two sectors? QS, right? This was one everybody had to be in. Everyone has to be in this one. It's the cat's pajamas. And if I hear one more person tell me how great quantum's going to be, but they have no idea, you know, what quantum even does. Uh but you could see this thing and how it was breaking out. Now you're starting to to die here a little bit. You look at names like NQ and you're trying to rally, but these are starting to set up somewhat of reversal patterns. RGTI, you tried to break out, but that's a massive dogee. That is like the mother of all dogeis of longlegged dogeis. So, what does that tell us? You're going to go through a period of uncertainty here. Could you reverse and run over that? Yes. What is the probability of that? Unlikely. So, we're starting to see that the quantum names, which were really leading the the fervor here, they're getting tired. And there's nothing wrong with that. There's like literally nothing wrong with them taking a break. And if we lose those and we start losing uranium, and I'm gonna be really clear about this when I say this. I don't I'm not saying the uranium trade's over, but we're tired. The market in and of itself is tired. It's it's moved a lot in a very short period of time. So, you actually want these drops so that you could take advantage of it. But something like OKLO, this was the first day that you couldn't rally and hit a higher high. And I actually posted this in the room when this was up around I think it was like uh 137 138. You could see it where if you looked at this body of work over a period of time, you're going to see the higher highs. You were always able to do it. And all of a sudden, you're hitting that 133 level and you just can't lift. And once I saw that, I'm like, "All right, well, that's pretty much it." And we have a I have a short position on right now with puts and I sold a bunch of calls to open with a credit spread. But the issue for me is, yeah, I don't want to be net short overnight, like just stock because God knows what's going to happen. You never know. I don't want that kind of overnight risk. But to me, the implied V is through the roof. But you don't know what you're going to get. And I don't know how much longer they're going to wait for the secondary. Are they going to wait till 118, 119 on the secondary? Because if this cracks, really cracks, you know, you're looking at 124 and then you start walking it down. You start looking at these levels like 111's right around the corner from 124 and it can happen fast. Remember, you take the elevator up, right? Or the escalator up and you take the window down. So, I'm really surprised they haven't done the secondary yet. People say, "Well, they don't need money." But okay, well they have zero in revenue, so of course they need money. I mean, everybody needs money. That's why it's called money. But again, if you look at this right here, look at how you're rolling over. Say it. These are the kinds of things that give me a little bit of pause. And the fact that they're putting money to work and they're just trashing that money.
It's been a great trading market. And I think if you're trading right now, you're doing exceptionally well. And what I would say to you is if you're more of a short-term kind of guy, watch the pre-market videos that we do. They're nailing this stuff in the morning. Absolutely nailing like where these call walls are and how they're trading up into them and then getting out when they're rallying into them, marking those levels off. It's really it's working exceptionally well in this kind of market. But we have to go and ask ourselves like where where's the leader? And and this is this leads me to this where you know the gold trade and I'll just show you this because I think it's fascinating. Uh but you're already went under on the 15minute. You went all the way under to an 11 on the RSI already and you dropped only $5. Now look at this on the hourly. You're already oversold on the hourly and where did you drop? Five bucks on GLD. That's insane. You worked off the entire overbought and you're oversold on gold and it only dropped $5. That tells you that there's demand out there. Now, why I think this is so fascinating personally from my standpoint is that you're running into GDP tomorrow and then you're also going to have PCE on Friday. There's this misnomer out there right now that oh, they're going to cut and then they're going to cut again. And I'm in that camp, but I'm also dynamic. I'm not static. And what do I mean by that? Well, if you look at what the market's telling you, the market's selling the 10-year. If you go look at the dollar, the dollar is rallying. So, what this is all really telling you and what then we're watching names like Rocket come in, right? They're not falling apart, but you're watching things like Lenire or you're watching the home builders or the homing the housing sector or you're watching the construction sector and they're all coming in. That is not a market that has multiple cuts that they're thinking. So, the the issue is if you have a really hot PCE, do they really cut 50 basis points? Do they take December off or do they take, you know, October off? They could they could take time off here, guys. They don't have to do it if if things heat up. And I think that this is the the missing part of this right now. So, I expect to see some pressure. Not a lot, but I do expect to see some pressure out there on the S&P. And I I think that the PCE on Friday, I can't do it this way. That's the put call ratio. But I do think that the PCE is going to be part of the pressure. And I've been watching the tenure. And if you look at what the 10ear's done since he cut rates, everybody basically said, "Oh, this is wait and see." because he used the word preemptive.