Transcription
Hey everybody, Kim Moabi here giving you an update. And I have some lines marked off on my chart. And that line, that white line there is the previous all-time high from the last cycle. And just something that I happen to notice was the previous cycle to that, the 2018 high or 2017 $20,000 high. And how after this cycle price came down and fell below that. Um, and then I took a measurement and said, well, that fell down 22% below the previous cycle all-time high and then found a bottom there.
So, I figured I'd mark off the previous cycle's all-time high of 68,999 here on the Conbase chart. And we'll take a measurement and see how far 22% is that area. And we'll just go down 22% and see where it lands. We'll go 23 just to be safe. 23. That gets you down to 50 53,000 maybe 52 51 but that would be in line with previous bare market what it ended up doing. Um, cuz previous bare market it was the first time that price revisited the prior cycles alltime high and maybe that's something that continues in the future here. Uh, maybe that's just, you know, bare market down and ends up hitting that here on the logarithmic chart.
Let's take a measurement from all-time high and this leg down and project from that high. That gets you to the 1272 in logarithmic scale. We've already hit the one one. So, does that mark a bottom? Maybe, but probably not because you don't have divergence yet on a daily time scale. And price is closing lower lows and lower highs here locally. So, price could have broken down here from a triangle. I don't quite see it like that just yet.
Let's put this in linear scale and take some measurements. Well, first let's take the measurement of a potential ABC pattern coming down. If you were to have from all-time high, there's a a potential Bwave. Your C leg should land around 51,900. That would be the target, which that's a valid target for Elliot Bay purposes. So if that is an ABC, you would expect something to repeat just like that. Maybe you got 1 2 3 4 with an extended fifth. And maybe you're doing the same thing now. Say, let's count these Elliot waves here. Say one, two, three. Potentially working on a four, which is why price just keeps chopping up and down. Uh, four could be completed with a triangle and you're on your way down now, or you can pop up to 755 before reaching that target down lower.
Now, price gets down to the low 50s. Certainly an area of interest. Am I waiting for that? Not necessarily. I'm waiting for a higher high to buy the higher low. That could come from anywhere. Um, I would like to see price come up and grab liquidity to the upside before coming down, but it certainly doesn't have to. This can certainly break down here.
Let's move this down to a 4hour chart. So the 4hour chart here, let's take a Fibonacci retracement of the third wave in this sequence, the wave three, the the expansive wave from high of wave two to the bottom of the proposed wave three. And you can see where price came up to for the bounce here. Came right to the 382 and often we'll see price make it to the 0.5 the 50% retrace of this leg down. That's usually where you have selling or supply come in uh from larger players because if they did miss the move down, the obvious place to get in is a Dow theory 50% retrace. So then you would have selling coming in there most likely and you would have liquidity and it would probably look like a breakout fueling more liquidity.
So if the 50% retrace is the potential target here, we take off this Elliot wave count and the APC down. Let's get this measurement precise here. You can go a little bit lower there and a little bit lower bottom. Yeah, there you go. So, price touched the 382, came back and then did a swing failure pattern on the 382 and now it's coming down in some some kind of wave down. It could be your ABCDE E triangle that was proposed by some on Twitter where you would have an A B C D E looks very triangular and that would constitute your wave four. Then you have this as your wave 1 two one two and down you go. Target for that is probably below 50K if I had to guess because that would be very very bearish. But once you do get down there, you do have liquidity up here. So once you get back above the 60,000, look to find it as support push up into that liquidity. That's certainly a trade. But is this an Elliot wave triangle? I guess you could see it like that. I mean, it's it's kind of playing out like that for now, but this wave up doesn't look like an Awave. Um, it looks like an impulse up and now just grinding back down to retest the lows. I would actually expect this to go ABC back up to the 75 eventually. How does it get there? That's anybody's guess, but first you need a higher high. So since you have here on the 4 hour chart lower, lower high, there's your lower high. Soon as you close a higher high, buy the higher low. Probably at the daily open. If this ends up happening tomorrow or the next day, that would be the area to buy at your previous support for a push up into that 75. And for Elliot wave labeling, you would label that as your A. This is just a funky Bwave. And then up for C.
Let's measure that just to see where it may potentially land if price is coming down to the area of interest right here at 627 626 area. The 1:1 Fibonacci extension gets you to 746, pretty close to the uh 75,000 70,000 75,188 target, which would be all of these lows that were made and price may come back and check those, grab this liquidity before heading down again. Now, if this would be an Elliot Elliot wave sequence and you do end up getting that 50% retrace of this expansion down, that would be a decent sell setup, especially if you start getting lower lows and lower highs in there to push down to the 50,000. So, you'd have a nice risk versus reward there if you can keep your stop tight from 75 down to 55 or so. So you just essentially grab liquidity, grab liquidity, grab liquidity up, and then liquidity back down. Especially if it looks like a breakout, like price is breaking out and then it sharply reverses back down again. Then I would definitely look for the lows to be taken out. This ends up being your reaccumulation range. [snorts] And then you get a spring down to 52. And the volume on that should not be as high as this volume on the selling climax. You should have like half of volume.
The similarity that you have here with this these this little choppy price action around 74 to 75,000 uh back the start of February. is reminiscent of the price action that you had at 99,000 at the start of November where price chopped down a little bit. Price eventually came back up to check that grab liquidity. It's kind of the same formation here that I'm looking for. Um, and essentially I was looking at this as potential to be wave four for a wave five push down, but now it doesn't look like it. But you can see a common common retracement there from the proposed wave two down to wave three. You make the 382 chop around a little bit and eventually you came close to the 0.5 Fibonacci. You missed it by a couple hundred maybe 50 bucks you missed it by. So it was front run and then started making a series of lower lows or highs. So, probably get the same type of scenario there, just not as expansive as a drop. Essentially, what I'm looking for is this type of [snorts] pattern kind of repeating here somehow. And you've just got one more leg down or a similar measurement there before reversing with this leg back up to maybe 80,000. Retest that low before coming back down again and then maybe go back up.
Looking here locally, price is getting bought back up at this little area at 62. Um, I'm sure there's plenty of liquidity down there to be had. Um, another pattern that could be [clears throat] happening is this being an A B C. And then you're going to repeat this move here. This would really drag things out. You essentially have an ABC down, making a larger ABC chop move for eventually pushing the lows instead of going up. And then that ends up being your Bwave. Whoa. Come on. We're much more longer drag out ABC like that. [snorts] So anybody's game here. Um, really you just have to look at the trend and see what it's doing and keep your stops tight. Um, as this is probably a reaccumulation formation or wave four in Elliot wave theory. What you tend to see in wave four is very confusing price action, ups and downs and liquidity being taken. Um, often it's for reaccumulation. They need the liquidity. So, they'll take the liquidity anyway they can get it. And that sometimes means pushing price up and pushing price down. It's just getting getting people to get aggravated in both directions. So that's why there's a potential here for this triangle breakdown. And then price is having some follow through there, but then price potentially comes back up here to 67 to take that liquidity, pushes down again, and just chops. It's it could be very choppy. So if you're going to trade this, trade small and know your levels and know your areas and and targets of what you want to see. um, and have your invalidations there.
Essentially, I'm looking at this as liquidity taken down below. Now, there's liquidity up here at 73. And then once liquidity is taken at 73, the next liquidity ends up being the lows of 60K. Look here on the low time frames on a 1 hour chart. Still in a downtrend, you have a low, lower high, lower low. In order to make a higher high, you need to close a 1 hour candle above the daily open here. 65. Close a 1 hour candle above 65. Maybe you start trending up then you can manage risk off of that low because if you break if you do end up starting an uptrend here like on a 1 hour, if you break below that low, you're probably going to come take out the 60,000. And then if you do that, you could have any sort of weird pattern could be happening. You could have this be a B C that breaks the low and still have an expanded flat that comes and takes the high. And it's just it's just all a game of liquidity. So, not super I'm not super uh enticed to get chopped up in a wave four or a potential wave four if this does end up being a wave four.
If it is a wave two, then would be a shallow ABC and you're about to rip to the upside. Am I super interested in that take? Not really. I I really don't think you're doing that quite yet. I think people are not quite tired enough, but you would have a one, two, and this wave three would get up pretty high for making higher highs and higher lows. Where would that target be? Let's just check from here. That was pretty close. >> 82,000 and then make a 50% pullback of that and then push for another high. up to 90,000. It could happen. I'm I'm not counting on that, nor would I try to trade that. I think the trade would be if you start making an uptrend here locally, you trade it up to liquidity and likely reverse it at those at those previous lows there. Before trading it up, make sure you do have an uptrend starting. So far you you do not have that. This can be ABC down. You repeat this leg back up to the daily open and then swiftly break below the lows again and come back down and take out 60K real quick before having a little bounce. So I can see that as a pattern. Let me draw that out. This ends up being like an ABC down. Get a small bounce back up to the daily and then repeat this choppiness all the way down to break the low. Then pop up for that leg from the lows back up to 66 again before trapping this pattern all the way down until capitulation. Saying like it it could take getting all the way down here before you start making an uptrend or make something different than the downtrend. So, watch your levels. Know your invalidation. Know your trade setups. Like, if you want to try to trade this here back up to 75K, your invalidation is the $60,000 stop loss. That's probably where your stop loss would be until locally here. You make a higher high. Then you buy the higher low. Your stop loss can be here at 625 and get a push up and then take profits at liquidity and then potentially a sell setup here. Especially if it reverses sharply back down, then previous resistance ends up being your sell setup because you get a lower low, lower high, and lower low. So, hope that all makes sense. Hope you you understand what I'm looking for. I'm looking for a higher high, higher low, and then sell set up at 75 or price just continues down. And I'm looking for a higher high, higher for a bottom to be in. So, keep them stops tight and have a good night.