Transcription
Today's number, guys, is one of those big ones because it could suggest that Wall Street is getting involved in semiconductors in the opposite direction. 6% down and up throughout the session led to some massive volumes across the board. Not just in bullish positions, but also in bearish ones.
So, what exactly is going on as we see the 50 exponential moving average get reached once again on the NASDAQ when it comes to a CPI result that was a little bit shocking? Inflation seems to be back and that's pushing bond yields up. So, it means that whether you're a trader or investor, we need to take a look at stocks, commodities, and cryptos together. See you guys very soon. There's a lot to discuss. Don't go anywhere.
Well, welcome back everybody to one of the largest daily shows on the planet when it comes to everything to do with markets. Semiconductors had a pretty volatile session after realistically posting the best or one of the best runs of all time over the last couple of weeks. And then we saw some defensive start to play up with both consumer defensives and health care picking up over the last 24 hours. To start things off though, let's talk about the big story lines and the data that's really making these markets move. And we'll start off here with of course inflation moving to 3.8%, 8% according to the latest result up 4% on core which is now the highest in 3 years and this will probably come as no surprise to anyone here. I'm sure you guys all know that inflation is most likely going to be picking up but it does come as a surprise obviously to some people as they weren't witnessing the already upticks in copper energy and other markets that we've been talking about during the last couple of sessions. Usually someone knows and the market price action and flow is very important to watch and that's why we always say on this channel watch the flow, watch the price action and let the opinions realistically go to the side.
So let's talk about the flows right now because there has been a little bit of a hiccup in what has been an epic rally throughout semiconductors of basically the last month and a half and anything to do with hardware. Now, we are tracking the Cosby, which is the South Korean index. And if you're not aware, this market is up bonkers amounts over the last 12 to 18 months, and it is leaning in on one of those historic all-time high rallies. Now, why is this so important? Well, just 24 hours ago, before we saw anything happen on semiconductors, we got a 7% day. Now, it dropped off, but by the end of the session, it had picked up, suggesting that, of course, the reflex to buy the dip is very strong in these markets. And you might say, well, that's a good sign. But as we often say, when volatility enters the markets, you've got to start being aware, especially after such an epic run. Generally means that we're very close to some extreme volatility, wild swings, and possibly even a pullback or consolidation.
So, let's take a look at the semiconductors in terms of the bare short positions. Now, I initially said this is the highest volume we've seen in pretty much ever, but because we did get a 10:1 reverse split on SOCKS S, which obviously is degrading ETF, it isn't the highest ever, but it is damn high. And we just saw a massive move over the last 24 hours with semiconductors leading it to be one of the biggest ones we've seen in a while. And more importantly, sustained large volume as everyone tries to go short. And at the same time, what are markets doing? Well, they're still rising up. Could this be a capitulation zone, though, being almost double what some of the present days have been? Well, it certainly is big, and we're getting close to the top 10 of all time when it comes to massive movements in the semiconductors market, especially in the bare ETFs.
Now, as we mentioned, volatility is back and we shared this one over on X. Links in the description down below if you want to follow us there, guys. And basically we saw a 6% move on the session and although it was bought by the end of the day and you can see here it rallied up. Nvidia holding better by the way there's looks like Jensen's kind of been on the move here with new reports coming out that he's kind of you know let's say doing a little bit of networking. This is uh leading us into thinking well wait a second what exactly is going on when we start to see this volatility. It suggests that maybe the easiest money is made up and the Ballinger band on the S&P 500 and also the Ballinger band on the NASDAQ kind of suggests this as well. And we've got some interesting stats for this because let's actually take a look at what's been happening with this market in terms of it moving so quickly, so fast that maybe it's just too overbought.
This is a great one here from Opening Bell Daily and this is from Phil Rosen. We shared his chart over on X if you want to check it out. And basically it shows here that we've only really seen the NASDAQ close 14.6% above its 50-day or more uh average on a few occasions. All of them were the dot boom, the global financial crisis or as you guessed it just the other day as in like literally today. Now why is this so important? Well, because it suggests that the markets have moved too quickly, too fast away from their moving averages. And as you guys know, the 50, the 200, and of course the 20, we tend to use this as a really good read of when markets become extremely overbought. You'll see a couple of interesting stats as we go through today's video that show something very similar.
This chart here we also shared over on our X account from macro charts which basically shows give him a follow of course and this shows that gamma exposure according to Goldman Sachs has gone from super oversold during the end of March to super overbought taking us to a couple of points here. We've only really seen these types of runs during that 21 meme style top. And remember this is where retail traders became huge components of the market. And we've discussed this over the last couple of years where we've talked about the 20 to 30% of retail traders now that make up this market volume. So this is historic stuff. We've never really had so many retail traders trading and investing in these markets. It means that Wall Street takes advantage of a lot of this and pushes us to our very limits psychologically both in FOMO and of course fear.
Now when we saw recent gamma exposure at these heights, did it instantly mean there was a crash? No. But it meant that we should be on alert because of course as you can see here from macro charts it's going to be interesting to see how this actually ends up u showing up throughout the rest of this year because we've seen this a few times through 2021 and this is our first read of this. If we get another read or two, that could suggest that the market could be looking at a significant top. And when these previously happened, markets did rally a little bit more, but they often kind of slowed. And this just basically meant that the current that current burst of trend was likely making, you know, kind of getting close to the end of that particular run before it needed to reset some indicators.
Now, speaking of runs, we've seen inflation spike up. Obviously, 3.8% guys, not a great number. Worse for some other countries around the world though and copper was already on the move. So was energy. So were other areas and we've discussed this that copper was sitting for quite some time and just broke to a new weekly high and since then it's actually continued to rally. Now that suggests that there's a lot of liquidity in the markets and a lot of growth actually happening underneath the economy, but also that countries around the world are stockpiling precious metals, particularly ones that are needed. And copper, of course, is the lifeblood of innovation in many ways. Silver is also another one of those metals. Since we first looked at this breakout, silver has moved up and it continues to be quite strong on the session so far, even with the selloff of the last 24 hours being purchased back up. So, goes to show that different sectors go at different times and all of a sudden we start to see energy and metals pick up and that's the beautiful thing about this market. Rotation, rotation, rotation.
If you're interested in this type of stuff, by the way, and you haven't subscribed to the channel yet, make sure to do so. We do things a little bit differently here. Flows, innovation, making sure we look at price action and sentiment, and of course, we bring it all together in these daily shows. So, make sure to hit that bell as well. It's really important that we have as many people as possible this year because this is going to be a midterm mass volatility year.
Now, speaking of volatility on the horizon, both the S&P and the NASDAQ broke out of their Ballinger bands over the last week. Now, this is pretty important because yes, you see the NASDAQ do this occasionally, but the S&P and the NASDAQ doing at the same time, that's a little bit different. So, it kind of suggests that again, we're near those extreme highs. And naturally we got some data stats from this. This one here from Polycarp FX over on X basically shows that when the SPY and Q both closed outside their weekly Ballingers and this is the important thing they both did at the same time that this has happened a few points and look at these little shaded areas. Really interesting stuff over here. Okay, it wasn't near the end. There was still more to go. But as a read considering it's quite rare, that's not bad. That's actually pretty significant over the last 10 years or so. And the average max draw down you can see here one week, one month, 3 months, 6 months. Okay, they weren't huge but still they were in the percentages of upwards of even upwards of 5% over the next 6 months and 3 months was three. So do markets react to this? Yeah, it is an overbought signal and it can be a very important point.
Now, if we take the NASDAQ and this is what Blue Kurdic did and then we take a look at the upper Ballinger band with the RSI over 80 as well, then that also adds in a little bit of complexity here and it becomes a little bit more shaky, but look at the 4-day change. Only 18% of the time was it bullish. Now, the average loss was not much. I think it was only 4% or something like that. But still, it just goes to show again a slowdown, not unexpected in a market that's starting to push these Ballinger bands and push these RSIs and and just do it all at the same time.
Now, why is the market up so much? People often ask, Duality Research has been pumping out some amazing content on this, and it's because earnings, earnings, earnings. As we talk about on the channel, and we've said all year, this is really what matters this year, guys. If earnings tops out, maybe we just saw that, we don't know. But if it does top out, oh, we got problems on our hands because that is going to be a very bad sign for a later stage market cycle, which obviously we do believe it is later stage market cycle. These can last 1 to two years generally and it's something that we've been talking about now for around 6 months since the Fed realistically cut last year in September. This was what was kicking off the structure cuz remember structure is all important and it creeps up on you. It's not something that happens like this. It's something that happens over time. So interesting chart there but that is important.
Now Jason Gotford also put out this report about a week ago now from Capital Context. Again give and follow over on X guys and this showed that the rolling 21-day which is my favorite uh sum of daily fund flows. You'll often see 21 days used showed that we were again reaching some peaks here potentially in the NASDAQ. Now that's happening as we hit the Ballinger, as we hit the RSI, as we see semiconductors do the thing. You kind of get the picture here. It's not just one thing. There's like four or five data sets that are starting to to really push that point.
Now, on the positive side of 21-day flow, we've actually seen Bitcoin improve. I put this one out the last 24 hours that basically said that over the next over the last 21 days, we saw about $3.11 billion of positive flow come into the big IBIT, which is of course the big exchange trader fund, which is positive. You know, the first sign of actual flows coming into the market rather than going out when it comes to Bitcoin. That could be a sign that we've got an accumulation base. Again, technicals are always the key here in those points.
What about dollar time? Let's have a look at the one of the biggest hedges in the world. US dollar is in the middle of the range. So, nothing to report there for the dollar. When we move over to the S&P, the actual advanced decline was slightly down. The market did rebound off the important levels. And as we you guys know, it really just seems to be the important thing is are we continuing to hold around that 2-hour 50 exponential on the way up. Are we continuing to make a series of higher highs and higher lows? And in general, we are. And in general, the NASDAQ, more importantly, held that zone, which we'll look at later on today. But um yeah, this is the type of stuff that we're looking at very, very closely. We need to pay attention to these markets.
Options high and low levels are here. But let's have a look at gamma because we end up closing right around 7,400 which just so happens to be as you guessed it the major core walls. We still break up from this guys. 7500 becomes the next gamma wall. So the markets may push that positive gamma up into those zones. And you can see the next 24 hours around 7450 for that major strike. When it comes to cues, it's a little bit more mixed. We've got here 700 on the bottom where puts kind of take control. So you can see here maybe that's a put wall. If we break through that we could be starting negative gamma once again. So that would be the first actual bearish sign we've had in a while from the option side. So 700 to watch on the cues and the NASDAQ.
The Nvidia doesn't care. Nvidia is just like okay I'll hit 220 and I'm slowly puttering up as this has been the stock that of course is totally behind all the other semiconductors but has become the rotation maybe into earnings. And guess what? All of a sudden, we're getting a bunch of news announcements coming into earnings as well. So, you can kind of see how this thing plays. Uh it's it's the the age old price action shows. Then all of a sudden, you get strange stories coming out and then the markets move. So, just goes to show that uh the markets often know, guys. That's why we watch those flows.
Let's have a look here at IBIT. Uh improvement. Sure. Bitcoin holding okay over the last 24 hours. We'll check it out in the charts. Important level 46.5 and Tesla hit that all-important 450 zone. So, no wonder it's taking a breather. We'll watch and see how this develops on the charts. We'll come up with that in a few moments.
All right, let's jump into the bonds market first. Does the bonds market care? Not yet. From the perspective of corporate uh debt anyway. Now, in terms of 30-year yields, this is a watch. You know, we need to make sure we check this out. 5.1% plus. That's going to close us above any previous period for like what is it? decade or something longer than a decade, 20 years. So, it's been a long time since we've moved up here approximately that long. Uh, US 30-year, very important chart. US 10-year, very important chart. Basically, we're seeing 4% now uh potentially breaking through as well on the 2-year. We've already seen this as an improvement in charts when you see price action. So, it's no surprise to anyone. But remember, it's the fear of the unknown that gets the market freaked out. We're not quite in the fear of the unknown on the 30-year yet. So that's something to watch. High yield junk though has been dropping. It hasn't recovered back to a new high. So that's another sign that we'll look at in the next video.
Now energy stocks, they did do an island reversal. At least it looks like at this stage off the 618 fib. That's a little bit encouraging of course for people that are trying to uh you know say well maybe oil is oil is finding a bit of a base. If we look at US oil, you can see here it also found a base and found a bit of improvement. And copper itself uh you can see here uh absolutely flew and by some metrics actually already did the flag. So that was quick. I've got to say this market is repricing very very quickly but that's actually a pretty beautiful technical. Um I would hope that copper will continue. Well maybe we don't want to continue guys but in terms of price action you would hope that it kind of continues. This is a pretty major breakout and it has generally repriced its way up. So we'll keep watching this one. Obviously, nothing is for certain, but the price action at this stage is a series of higher highs and higher lows.
Let's move over to gold. It is fairly rangebound after coming through that double bottom pattern. Some people are bearish here, some people are bullish. I don't mind this low steel here, especially if we manage to break through 4750. So, watching 4750 quite closely over the next 24 hours to 48 hours to see whether we close above that, that could even uh stretch this market higher if it does end up picking up flows. Gold's a bit behind the likes of silver which smashed straight into 86 again after dropping. So I'll just show you here on the 2-hour. You can see here actually dropped came back to that 2-hour 20. Look at this. We got one touch, two touches, just barely a higher high. Important level to watch will be the 2-hour 20 I think on the way up now. We'll see whether it can continue to hold the trend. And you'll note here that it's not quite at that, at least my opinion, second resistance possibility here on the charts.
XME had a pretty strong recovery over the last 24 hours. Gold miner juniors, other things all starting to pick up after dropping. And you'll note here that again, the charts are fairly resilient when it comes to metals and energy at this stage.
IGB software time, how's it going? Still holding above those highs, which of course Woff wouldn't uh disagree is a good sign. That's not too bad. And uh socks, you can see here semiconductors themselves showing that first sign of volatility. Remember the the the RSI is wild. The Ballingers are wild. Of course, this is a big move, but that was the first sign of volatility that we saw on semis for quite some time. We got that small island reversal the other day, uh which is the only sign we had. Now, we've got a couple that are coming through. We've got the Cosby, of course, showing some volatility, which is the hardware side. If we take a look at DRAM, which is a new ETF that is all about hardware, you can kind of see here that almost made a pretty interesting star pattern, by the way. Almost. Uh, but that's pretty volatile. Let me have a quick look here exactly how much that dropped off from the top. 13% to 14% off the top there very quickly. Boom, boom, boom. That's how fast it can repric. So, yeah, there's volatility in the chat, guys. The Wall Street is certainly doing something here. And you can see Nvidia doesn't care because it's super behind uh when it comes to semiconductors. So, it's kind of, you know, moving, I think, in anticipation of, of course, a big earning season.
Let's now look at XLF. Now, financials have been pretty weak. And the market that I've been looking at over at fxevolution.com with our, of course, market masters club. If you ever want to join that, by the way, make sure to do so. FXevolution.com. Join the marketers club. It's great to have you guys involved. Join us for the open streams, the close streams each day for the markets. But you can see here that financials, they've actually been dropping pretty drastically and they fell through uh versus the SPY. Now, they fell through these lows. Now, that already signaled that we were probably moving into a later cycle market. Now, that's no surprise. Again, I've said this for a while. I've kind of been watching financials like this for about a year and a half, and this was one of the big reasons that I didn't think we were in an early stage cycle. uh back last year because financials have been making a series of lower highs and lower lows and they've just gone down again which suggests that of course there's maybe some weakness in the debt markets.
Let's have a look at Tesla hovering at that supply level still strong but again it's getting volatile now and XJO time Australian market budget came out for any Australian you know what I'm talking about and the markets themselves have dropped off medals have done okay but other other areas aren't doing so well and 8600 support has been reached so for Australians what you really want to see is a higher high being formed that hasn't happened yet pretty important level though we'll keep tracking this one.
Chinese market update. No breakout past the high of 265. Let's now move over to the NASDAQ. So the all-important Ballinger is still above. That's pretty wild. Uh but also the all-important 2-hour 50 exponential. You guessed it. Still holding. So looking for a lower high, lower low. Have we got that yet? No. Is the trend still intact upwards or up to the upside? Yes. Is this the most we've seen in recent weeks in terms of actual confluence? Yes, it is. Uh, so it's one of those I think it's getting more dangerous. Risk management will be needed here, guys. But the trend is still intact for now, at least even on the basic time frames there, unless you're on like a 15-minute chart or something.
Onto crypto, Ethereum, you can see here, is holding the zone. It hasn't broken 2450. A few of you guys talking about Solana. It looks a little bit stronger on the charts, but you can see here that Bitcoin held again that anchored VWAP level. Break of the daily 200 I think will be all important. As Paul Tudor Jones says, nothing good happens underneath the daily 200, but what if we get above the daily 200? That would be pretty sweet. So, series of higher highs, higher lows. Also looking at support potential on the 20 moving average because of course that could be the dynamic 23 style system I often talk about uh that's in our courses.
So, let's have a look ahead. We got PPI data. We also have, of course, a little bit more information coming out uh about probably some semiconductors. And there's some more news as well to do with everything to do with AI bots because as you guys know, people are starting to question a little bit whether these valuations are good. We'll have more on that in our next video. So, make sure to subscribe for that and hit that bell. There's a lot to get into in these markets. And there's never a dull moment in 2026 when it comes to flows and movements. So, make sure to follow us over on X. Check out our newsletter as well. And it's going to be great to have you on board. Thanks so much, guys. We'll see you next time. Bye for now.