Transcription
The last time both gold and silver sat where they're sitting right now, gold went up 240%. Silver went up 320%. But it didn't happen the way you think.
Central banks were dumping gold for months in 2026. And the headlines were screaming that the gold trade was over. And then quietly something started to flip. And I'm going to show you exactly what flipped, when it flipped, and what it means for your money. By the end of this video here, you'll understand the mechanical pattern that's repeated after every major crisis in gold and silver in the last 50 years and why this pullback isn't a breakdown, it's a setup.
Winston here is our in-house gold analyst. Get it? Golden Retriever. He's also going to give you three gold mining stocks and royalty companies that could give you a two or a 3x upside on that without actually leveraging your account. And because Winston is going to make this video so information dense for you to give you lots of value and to make sure it really lands for you, we're also going to give you a bonus full research report covering everything that we're going to go over today and more. Because this video shouldn't be hours and hours long. You can download that for free at felixfriends.org/gold2026. Links down below in the description. It's completely free. Nothing required. Just download it.
If you're wondering who the heck we are, my name is Felix. I'm an ex-investment banker, and economist. This here is is Winston. Uh he's also the co-founder of the Goat Academy where our retired Wall Street mentors have been teaching regular investors like you for the last six years. Uh we've taught well over 20,000 people by now, which is super super fun. And we're going to show you how the sausage gets made on Wall Street, what it really means, and then the exact pattern that we've seen play up multiple times.
Gold dropping in the middle of a global crisis like it is right now. So, I'm not going to give you financial advice. I'm not even going to give you my opinion. I'm going to give you the mechanical sequence that repeats after every major oil shock. Think '73, '79, 1991, 2001, 2022. Yeah. Every, every one of the big ones. And once you see those patterns, you won't be able to unsee them again.
So, let's start with what's probably making your blood boil right now. And let me know if if if it's annoying you that gold and silver are down. Let's put put "annoyed" in the chat or an "A" will do, too. Gold hits an all-time high of up here somewhere, 5,000 almost 600 in January. And then the Iran conflict breaks out and gold drops. Not like 5% or 10%, but no, like a lot. You know, we're talking like 20 odd percent. And every retail investor on the planet expected gold to moon, right? And it did the exact opposite. And I bet some of you are watching this right now and you're sitting in the red, right? Let me know if you're in the red on on gold in the comments. Just write "red gold" in the comments.
But let me explain to you what happened because once you understand this, you'll never look at a crisis the same way again and you'll understand where the next opportunity sits. So tattoo this on your forehead or wherever you you you you take notes because this is a really important other thing to understand.
Step one is we get a geopolitical shock. You know, in this case, it was a major conflict in the Middle East. What happens next? Well, oil goes up, right? And oil is going to continue to go up. In my humble opinion, 20% of the world's oil flows through that part of the world. And when it's disrupted, well, guess what? Prices go up. It's particularly complicated.
Step two, when oil spikes, inflation actually doesn't go up immediately, but expectations of inflation do. Like expectations of very long golden retriever massages around here. And in markets, expectations are everything. And then you get to the third step. The Fed can no longer cut interest rates because they see the inflation expectations rise. So the Fed's stuck, can't do anything because we got to fight inflation.
And then step four, when the market realizes the Fed isn't going to cut, the interest rates go up. Bond yields, they call it, which are basically the interest rates that the market sets, not the Fed or the government. The Fed doesn't actually set interest rates. It is the market that does. The Fed doesn't want you to know this, but it's how it actually works. And it sounds a little bit complicated, but stay with me because this is so important.
And when you understand what bond yields are, it's basically how much interest do you get for holding US government debt. Well, if they're paying you 5%. And gold is just sitting there doing nothing, paying you nothing. So, what do you think the big money does? Well, they flow into the sure thing, right? Wall Street likes a sure thing. And 5% is a sure thing.
And then what happens? The dollar strengthens. Why the heck does the dollar strengthen? Because every scared investor around the world, every pension fund manager is losing sleep and they're all moving their money into the one safe haven the world still believes in for some reason, US Treasuries or US debt. So money, money pours into US debt. And all those foreign buggers like me, they have to buy dollars, right? They sell their yen and their euro monkey currencies and they buy the good old, you know, US dollar for it. And because gold is also priced in dollars, a stronger dollar means gold gets cheaper or it looks cheaper to everybody else.
So you get three headwinds hitting gold at the exact same time. You get the higher bond yields, the higher interest rates, a stronger dollar, and then you get forced selling from institutions who need to raise cash or those who are locking in or those who are locking in their profits because you remember gold started around here where the first sort of real like buy signal kicked in in Feb 2024 around $2,000. So, a lot of people made a lot of money there. Seems the massage has finished over here. So now you know why your gold position is in the red while the world is uh is is on fire. And this has happened every single freaking time.
Going to have to put these on because these lights are very bright. Better for your eyes. So literally go back the last 50 years. October '73. OPEC cuts production, slaps an embargo on the US. Oil does something insane. And gold initially dropped and then it rallied tremendously. Or you have the Iranian revolution of '79, oil production drops, price of oil goes to the moon, gold doesn't do anything and then over the next 12 months it goes up like 89%. 1991 Gulf War, Iraq invades Kuwait, Bush invades Iraq for the first time and um oil spikes, gold popped about 10%. Energy stocks went to the roof, defense stocks obviously outperformed. But if you go back into then 9/11, what does gold do after that? Gold goes on a decade-long run from 250 to 1900, right? Which is kind of what we got to in 2024. And then Ukraine, Russia, same scenario. Gold finally breaks 2000. So gold initially tends to drop and then it recovers to higher highs every single time.
Now, of course, past performance is not indicative of future results and all that kind of stuff, is it Winston? Um, but this is what's happened every single time in the last 50 years. So I think it's a pretty important thing to understand.
Now, most investors will get surprised by exactly this kind of a move, right? They'll chase too late. They buy at the top, they sell at the bottom. And and let me know if any of you, and there is no shame in this, did any of you buy silver up here at sort of $100 and right now you're really frustrated with it because it's down 30, 40%? Or maybe you did the same to gold. Literally share it in the comments. If you bought it near the highest in January, write "highs" in the chat. Or maybe you panic sold during the crash because it was down quite a bit and you got annoyed by that, put "panic" in the chat. Or maybe you've been doing it with a stock. It doesn't matter whether it's gold or silver. It's the same thing.
Is I've literally reviewed thousands of portfolios and I see the difference in strategy between retail and Wall Street. Most retail investors lose money because they are stuck in certain stocks or gold or silver and then they seek safety. And what do they then do? Well, they buy index funds. But index funds hide the real picture. The truth is that if you own an S&P 500 index fund, and I guarantee you do, maybe not directly, but it'll be in your pension, there are a handful of winners, 10, 15 winners that carry the whole thing, and then there are 490 stocks that drag you down. And that sounds weird, doesn't it? Why do I own 500 when only these guys up here do anything? But I've been told it was safe. But what if that was wrong?
That's exactly why Winston and I are going to run a free live session for you. First time ever, probably last time ever. And I call it the Index Fund Trap. Why the S&P 500 is lying to you. And it's something institutional money understands. It's something that almost no retail investor understands. And I'm not trying to scare you. I'm not trying to freak you out. Don't do anything. Don't sell your S&P index funds right now. But learn what it actually is that you own. And then you can come to the realization whether or not that's something you want to keep earning or whether you might want to improve upon that. So you can get yourself a free ticket to this live event. Be two hours long. I'm running this live from France at indexp.com. indexp.com. The link's down below and I'm going to walk you through the exact setup for navigating what's coming here, including this gold and silver setup. But two hours, as I say, live from France, free seat at indexp.com.
Uh, why am I not telling you everything in this video? Because the video would get silly long and YouTube doesn't like making putting out two-hour videos. But let's get back to the promise and the premise of this video. Every time gold or even silver sat where it's sitting right now, literally there's a technical level that every big institution, every fund, every central bank watches, and it's very simple. It's called the 200-day moving average line. And let me show you gold right now. Gold right now. Get a pen. Okay, first of all, there is a purplish line on here. That is this 200-day moving average. Please take notes. You will forget it. And right now, we're trading significantly below that. Right, we're trading here. So, we're looking bigly below that. The last time we were that bigly below it was briefly in April 2025. And before that, it's actually not on my chart in the last year or two.
So, what happened, and again, I'm not saying to you it's going to happen exactly the same way, but last time we were at that sort of a level, we were at 27 bucks and we went up a couple of hundred percent. And if you zoom out even more, and you see these opportunities where we are below that line, well, we were below that line down here at $17. We were below that line in a big fashion at $11 in 2020. Right? All of those were beautiful shiny opportunities for a rally in silver.
I'll show the same thing to you for gold. You can see where we are right now on gold. You see this line here, which is again the same 200-day moving average line. We're trading here. Pretty big gap below the line. That gap here was actually less. Now, that gap, we were trading at $1,800 for gold. So, let me ask you this. Would you like to have bought gold at $1,800? But actually, if you zoom out a little bit, the significance of the drop is more like what we saw in 2022. And in 2022, I can tell you we were trading at 1,500, $1,600 an ounce, right? Right now, we're trading at $4,300, which everyone's crying about. This is something that happens very rarely. When it does, it is, I believe, an opportunity. I'm not telling you to buy it. I'm not a financial advisor. You got to come to your own conclusions, but it's something to understand and study.
So, I looked up the data. Last 10 times gold touched the 200-day moving average line over the next 12 months. On average, we did 8%. Obviously, more if you had a bit more patience. 60% win rate on that. Again, not promising that'll happen in the future, but we were 100% positive at 12 months into it. Now, obviously, some of you are saying past performance doesn't guarantee future results. True. Yes, you're completely right. It doesn't.
But let me walk you through why the conditions today are more extreme than anything we saw in all those previous episodes. The US, the US um debt or the uh please vote for me please vote for me fund. It was sitting at 500 billion in '73. It's about 39 trillion right now. The government is paying three billion a day in interest, a trillion a year more than the entire defense budget. Literally every aircraft carrier, every fighter jet, every soldier, more goes to paying interest on the debt than in defending the great USA. And central banks in '73 were selling gold. There is no silver supply deficit. Today, central banks are buying again at a pace we haven't seen in a long time.
And we have a tool for that in in the Winston app. There's a whole metals section. And one of the things we track in there on literally a map, make it bigger for you. We track on here if you just remove the mining operations and everything else. You just leave the central bank gold thing on there and and we pinned you out an alert as well a few days ago when the data came in and you can see a lot of the um more abundant European nations are selling gold. Poland, they're smart. They're buying gold. You see a lot of the Asian nations are buying gold and we're back to central banks being net buyers of gold.
Now, the reason that they started selling off is like you see all these little red dots here in the Middle East. All these guys were selling, Turkey especially, but also rumored to be the Emirates and so on because their oil sales stopped. So, they're not getting dollars in. So, they're selling something that's liquid they can tide themselves over with. So, we're at a phase now where we seem to have bottomed out there. So these guys are no longer selling as much or maybe they stopped selling and overall all the central banks in the world are now net buyers and I think that's very important to understand.
You want to get access to that data? There's a ton of data in here. You can also like click on gold for example and it shows you what the biggest players are doing. Institutions still sellers, which actually is kind of an indicator to be a contrarian. I I would argue. Show you the gold and silver premiums in Shanghai and so on. The COMEX inventory, the stress tests. It's it's it's all in there. Who's buying and holding gold and everything? It's all it's all in there, plus much much more. There's a link down below. You can try it for for literally there's a whole month trial. So, we I'm not someone who wants to hold you hostage to software. If you like it, you stick around. If you don't, you cancel it on day 29, which is also fine.
But let me teach you what I've learned from my Wall Street MA mentors, the guys who literally worked on the metal exchanges, made the markets. I mean, you know, I like to think, but I when I say make the market, I always think of manipulate the market, but obviously I'm wrong because they made the market more efficient. That was that was the word I was looking for. And they're the same guys who teach teach my students. There are four phases to this. And again, you might want to write this down.
So phase numero uno is week sort of one to four. You get panic selling. Retail tends to lock in losses. Um, tons of media fear coverage. Don't watch the news. Don't watch the war news. It doesn't make you any smarter. It makes you more fearful, which is what a lot of people make money out of. The smart money usually just sits there and waits.
And then you get to phase two, which is sort of month two to three end. So the panic starts to settle a little bit. The fear comes down a bit. The safe havens kind of pull back. Gold drops, silver drops a little bit more, and that's usually where retail gets massacred because you look at your portfolio, you see red, you read the headlines saying gold's over, and then you sell, right? Now, in my opinion, just a humble opinion, this is the worst possible time to sell. But it is the most common time that people sell because we're human beings. We're hardwired to do the wrong thing at the wrong time. Right? Money isn't intuitive. I always say that it's just it's rules-based, but it isn't intuitive.
And then we get to phase three, which is the central banks are giving us the structural bid, the structural buying. The miners start popping up. The recovery begins, but retail is too scared to get back in because they just had a painful period with gold and silver and and miners and everything else. So they miss out. And I want to make sure you don't miss out on the opportunities that are in front of us. I'm not telling you what to buy. I'm just saying learn the rules so you can come to your own conclusions. Right? Better you learn how to fish than me give you an old smelly fish.
And then we go to phase four where prices are now above the crisis levels. Happens after every major shock, oil shock in the last 50 years. And even Wall Street is currently saying gold should be 35 to 40% higher than it is right now. And I'm talking JP Morgan and Deutsche and every Wall Street bank out there, all with their price targets and the 6,000 something. So let me ask you this simple question. Do you want to be positioned before the herd figured this out? If you do, put "herd" in the comments.
So you understand the mechanics, you understand why gold dropped, you understand the signal, you understand the four phases, but there's still a piece missing that most investors really miss out on. And it's probably the most important one because most investors will get surprised by this, right? And then they're going to do the same thing again. They're going to chase too late. They're going to buy silver again somewhere up here, you know, after the rally. Our entry point was here. Our entry point was there. This one here is one you should frame because the volume, institutional money pouring in, was something I've never seen before on a stock chart. But retail bought it too late once it was mainstream news and became exit liquid and it was painful, right?
How does it feel to hold something that's down, you know, a lot? Feels doesn't it? Feel painful. Your stomach is tighter. You feel like you've been conned. You feel like there is, you know, market manipulation and you feel frustrated and all that stuff, right? Put your emotions in there in the comments how that makes you feel. But you're not losing money because delete that last sentence. You're losing money because you haven't got the rules. You're losing money every day in my humble opinion because you're stuck in an index fund that hides what's actually going on there. You own basically these winners and you hold this many losers as your president likes to say. And I want to help you fix that.
I want to help you look at the market in the way that Wall Street looks at the market because Wall Street doesn't do that. Wall Street doesn't just even Warren Buffett, Mr. Buy the Index Fund. Well, guess what? They sold all their index funds. They don't own any anymore because they realize the game's up. The market has changed. It used to be in your parents' or grandparents' world, you could just buy the index, you'd retire, and you'd be wonderfully rich. Absolutely. It's changed. And there is a mechanical reason for that. And that reason is understood by the guys I talk to, the guys on Wall Street, the guys who used to run the hedge funds and work in the big banks, but it isn't understood by many people out there in the retail world.
So, we're going to teach that to you. One free live session, two hours. It's called the Index Fund Trap, and you can get yourself a free seat at indexp.com. It'll work for you if you are in the socialist states of Europe or if you're in in the Americas or pretty much anywhere else in the world because I'm doing it live from from France. So, time zones should work for you guys and I'll give you that exact playbook. How they understand what's coming, how they understand that it's changed. Index funds were no longer are no longer what they used to be. So, get yourself a free seat. Two hours live. There won't be a replay. Don't ask me for one.
But I want to give some of you guys who are more the stock crowd. I want to give you some something to to to study because we cover the mechanics, the mechanics, the the signals, the four phases, the central banks flipping, all that stuff. You know, there's a silver deficit. I'm not going to run you through that again.
So, what do I like to buy? Yes, I like owning gold. I like owning silver. But I make the real money with miners because when gold goes up 10%, miners tend to go up 30%. It's a leverage that's built in. And I'm going to walk you through three companies here. Um, give you all the information so you can look look at them.
Um, first thing I always do, go to the Winston app, look at stocks, and and here's the first ticker, AEM. And you can type that in there. There it is. Agnico Eagle Mines. And that tells you quite a lot. Gives you our score. How solid of a business do we think it is. Obviously, do your own research. Shows you their revenue growth, record revenue growth, profit growth, insider ownership. It tells you basically every number you want to see, you want to understand and then little sort of Winston tips of you know, revenue is actually accelerating here. But what I really want to look at with you guys on the weekend and we'll we can look at these particular examples then for you on the coming weekend that is is I see something on this chart here that makes my heart skip a beat. Um, and it and it is this slightly ludicrous-looking zigzag pattern. I call it a heartbeat pattern. And right now, don't get me wrong, it isn't quite where we like it to be, but it is the setup. And the setup to me is saying we're in the late stages of selling. Don't run out and buy it. I haven't yet. Um, I'm going to wait a little bit here. But for me, that's exactly what I'm looking for here. And if you didn't know who these guys are, they are they're a company that digs gold out of the ground and then they sell it. That's I think the simplest way to summarize the business. But the cool thing is with gold prices where they are, you know how much it cost them to get an ounce of gold out of the ground? $1,400 is their cost. So we're trading at wherever we're trading at as you're watching this. You know that they're making money, right? Because they're selling at the market price. So they're making about $3,300 an ounce profit. That's pretty good, right? That's a pretty sweet margin. And if gold goes higher, guess what? Their profits go higher and higher and higher. So, it's a it's a leverage play on that.
The second stock I want to look at with you and and these are also in the in the doc down below or if you want to play with the Winston app is called FNV. Uh, it is a stock listed in um Snow Mexican Land Canada. I'm just kidding. I love you Canadians. Canadians are wonderful people. Um, but look at that revenue growth, right? Insane. 88% on the year and very, very, very solid numbers. Very, very, very solid numbers I'm seeing here. And if I look at the stock, what am I seeing? I'm seeing my famous pattern, right? Still not where I wanted to be, but I'm seeing the selling fizzling out. If you're wondering what these guys do, read about it here. They don't mine any gold. They're a royalty company, so they finance gold miners. Um, and they collect basically royalties for everything that's dug out of the ground in in return. Very, very, very impressive numbers there. I I like that business model, I must say.
Then we also have WPM, probably the most famous one you might have heard of. Wheaton Precious Metals. We give it a pretty decent score here, 72. We also show you politician buying, Trump buying, all that stuff. Not a lot going on there to be honest. The answer too small for me to pay any attention, but again, tremendous revenue growth the last two quarters generating a lot of cash. Just very, very, very solid numbers overall. And again, WPM has the same pattern that I look for. Not quite where I wanted to be yet, but setting itself up in my humble opinion. So, I'm not buying it yet. I'm waiting, but I'm seeing something that I really, really want to have on my watch list right now.
But most people don't buy these. Most people will buy a silver index fund or something like that. But you are missing out, I understand, on the real opportunity with good risk management, right? Don't just run out and buy buy gold and silver miners if you don't know what you're doing because that could cost you a lot of money. And that's the exact opposite of what we want to achieve here. But if you can see the opportunity, I'll show you the last time we had that heartbeat pattern. It was here, really. That was the last one. There was one here before, too. There was one here. And I show you how much that went up from that point. It really broke out of it from here, but it went up a lot, right? 100% plus. And so there is something I think worth studying. I'm not promising returns, but when you get these these periods where you are drifting sideways, people are getting tired of the gold and silver story, that's exactly when I want to look at potentially buying it.
And look, there are probably two types of investors watching this video right now, right? Type one sees gold pulling back from its highs and thinks it's over. Gold was a hype. I should have sold at the top and then they're going to go back to scrolling and watch someone else tell them to buy whatever the latest AI stock or something. And then six months from now, when gold is at new all-time highs, they'll say, "Oh, I knew I should have."
Now, the type two investors sees the same pullback and thinks phase two mechanical suppression because I just taught you that. They look at the structural setup, look see that it's actually more bullish than it was at the top, and then they start accumulating at the right moment, not too early, at the right moment, just like the institutions, just like the central banks are. It isn't about smarts, it isn't about intelligence, it's not about how much money you got, it's not about your connections. It's about understanding the rules. But Wall Street for...
So, which type do you want to be? Type one, the chaser, or type two, the guy who's learning the skills? Put it in the comments. Write "I'm a chaser," or write "skills" in the comments. And if you are someone who wants to learn the skills, join me on the weekend. Go to indexp.com, grab yourself a seat, show up for yourself, bring a notepad and a hot beverage, and we're going to have some fun. And I'm going to teach you the actual rules. I'm going to walk you through actual stocks and the gold and the metal charts and all that stuff, show you how you can see the institutional money moving around. It's much, much simpler than you think, but you got to learn it. Otherwise, you will forever be the chaser.
You got some value out of this video. If you know some people who might get value out of the live training, send them the link, share it with them. That would make me very happy. And I look forward to seeing you guys on the weekend in France. All the best.
Six months ago on this channel, Winston here warned you that a wave of trillion-dollar IPOs would mark the top of the market. And this week, Ray Dalio, literally the most success