Transcription
Many of you have asked me for an analysis of the cryptocurrency Solana, especially since the approval of ETFs. That's what we're going to do today. We'll take stock of the short to medium term, the long term, and especially we'll talk about investment plans for investors. That's what I think interests you the most, and we'll do a big long-term analysis. Just before we start, I remind you that our algo service is available. We've shown you the results of the last quarters. Once again, we are 100% transparent. You have the SPT, LIM, GOTE algorithms, everything is available. 19R in the 2nd quarter, 14R in the 3rd quarter to access it, it's free. It's the first link in the pinned comment. All useful links concerning my content will lead you to this page. You just need to register on Bitgate via our partner link. So here, you validate the little verification, you create your account, and that will allow you to access the algorithms, the mentorship, the VIP, Alcoin, all of that for free. Make sure to go through our partner link, otherwise it won't work, and then you won't be able to access it. So once that's done, you've created your account, you just need to look at the second link right here. It's a short video in which I explain everything. Algo trading mentorship VIP Alcoin. The mentorship is right here. It's a complete training from A to Z, and you'll also have access to the VIP Alcoin in the Discord. Here, this is where I will share the best opportunities on the Altcoin market.
So, coming back to Solana, I think there will be a small alert on Solana, by the way, when it reaches zones that personally interest me. Now, regarding Solana, well, we can already see that we've been in a huge range for a very long time. First of all, don't overthink it, I've already made a video about it. We can note, I'll put a neutral color like this. We can see that $210 is approximately the top of our range, and that around $110, $100 is the bottom of the range. We can see that we had a deviation during Donald Trump's election, and then there was Trump's token, and so the blockchain on Solana was on fire. So we made a new ATH, we even broke the new ATH again, but we didn't manage to close above it. Then, we had the re-entry into the range, and naturally, we returned to the bottom of the range. So, already at the top of the range, we know to be cautious. Currently, the market is returning to the middle of the range. So, this will be an interesting zone to defend. Now, if the market breaks the middle of the range, you see, it's the median threshold of my range here, it's my little dotted lines, theoretically, we can expect the market to return to the bottom of the range. Often, what the market does is purge the extremities of zones, especially in the crypto market. So, broadly speaking, we know that now we have this peak that will be important, and we have this lowest low from April 2025. And what's also important to understand is that from January 1st, 2026, this low will become the lowest low of the past year. Because in 2025, the lowest low recorded is here. If I switch to an annual chart, our 2025 candle, you can see it takes the 2024 peak, re-enters it, and so that's our 2025 candle. Currently, 2026 could potentially come to recover the 2025 low, or even the 2024 low. This is a basic concept that I explain here. Broadly speaking, we estimate that when the market is trapped in a candle and it comes to take its extremities, when there's a re-entry, it has a high probability of going to seek the reciprocal of that candle. So, to seek what is called sell-side liquidity. So, this is the year 2025 currently. So, 2026 could potentially come to purge the 2025 low, or even this is our current candle. So, forgive me, this is the 2025 candle, this is 2024. 2026 could decide to come and recover the low of this candle, or the low of 2024. I'm not saying it will happen, but it's a possibility. And that's when opportunities arise because when we position ourselves at annual lows, we generally position ourselves at very good price levels. I've explained this many times. You should avoid buying at annual peaks. So, for example, if you bought at the 2021 peak, well, you're currently stuck and underwater. It's better to buy at annual lows on any asset, whether it's indices. For example, if I take the Nasdaq, it's the best strategy that exists on the Nasdaq since the Fed saved the economy with money. If you bought the 2024 low here, you were very, very well off. Annual lows are to be bought. You bought the 2021 low, you're very, very well off. You buy here, this is more on the S&P 500, but similarly on the S&P 500, buying the 2021 low in 2022 is free money. Buying the 2024 low in 2025 is free money. When Covid hit, buy the 2019 and 2018 lows, it's free money. Here, you buy the 2015 low, free money. Okay, so really, annual lows in a market that is bullish long-term are a gift. Bitcoin is exactly the same. That is to say, if you take BTC long-term, you buy the annual lows, you buy the 2021 low, you have a very good long-term entry. Here, at the time, well, there's not enough history, I think it's more on the CME. By the way, you can also look at the CME. I really like looking at the CME, but here, for example, similarly, when you take the Covid crash at the time, we went to seek the 2019 low. This is where we have an extraordinary entry. Here, again, we re-work the annual fair value gaps. We have extraordinary entries. We take the annual lows. I'm not saying again that we'll go for this annual low, but it's so that you can understand that lows, the higher the timeframe, for example. Well, we won't have that on Bitcoin, but the low of the decade, for example, is an extraordinary entry. Annual lows, similarly, quarterly lows also depend on the timeframe you're working on. In any case, it's better to be bullish on annual lows and below annual lows than bearish. But often psychologically, we can be bearish because we've gotten used to the price being at a certain level. So, all year since 2024, we've gotten used to the price being around $150-$200. It's true that if one day we go back below $79, people will have probably capitulated. I'm not saying we're going there again, I'm just saying that if it were to happen, it would be an extraordinary entry. And so here, for example, well, we're still in our range. So, in itself, there's nothing dramatic. Now, let's locate the POIs. So, POIs are zones of interest in the market. For example, here I can note that we are at a quarterly low. So, it leads me to believe that Solana, sorry, will go below $144 at a minimum within this range. I think we will recover the low of this quarter. So, when I switch to daily, I refine and I see that the quarterly low is here. It's the low of July 1st, 2025. And so we see that we stopped just before. So, it leads me to believe that this rebound is a false rebound and that we will purge the quarterly low. Why do I think that too? This is a concept. Well, I'll have to cover it in the mentorship. But broadly speaking, what is the last candle that made a bullish liquidity grab? It's this one. So, broadly speaking, we can assume that the market, I'm not saying it's not the case, and personally, I think we'll go back below this low, but we can assume that theoretically the market will now just purge this low and then go back up. But personally, my opinion is more that the market, I think it will come back to take the 2025 low at a minimum during 2026. Why? Because the fact that we came to take the ATH, that we had a rejection, and that we came back to take the second-to-last candle and had a rejection, leads me to believe more that the price will try to purge the lows. That's why I'll later talk about investment strategies for truly long-term strategies. Again, this doesn't mean it will happen. I want to emphasize that, it's just my opinion. The prices here are good for the long term. If you estimate that Solana can reach $400 or $500, there's no need to overthink it. For example, if you think Solana will go to $500 one day, if you buy here at $160 and it goes to $500, you make a profit of 215%. 215% doesn't happen on US indices, at least not for many years now, given the market caps we've reached. You won't do that on gold, on Bitcoin, it will take time to x3 too. It takes time. Now, maybe Solana will go to $500 in 2 years. Now, again, it's just a question of, well, the lower the price goes, the higher my percentage increases. If you can buy at $150 and you're convinced it will go to $500, if it drops back to, for example, $115, then a x4.4 awaits you. So, that's how you have to reason too. If the risk-reward is worth it, it can be interesting. Now, why personally do I think we might come back to seek these lows? Because it's simply a range. We were rejected at the top of the range. So, in my humble opinion, the price will come back to seek the bottom of the range again. It will purge the extremities, and that's where it will freak everyone out. And when I see the price like this, personally, I'll look at the semi-annual chart like this. I expect the price to revisit this fair value gap zone at least. So, we'll also take the 2024 low. But again, this will be the thesis of an investment strategy in a few minutes. Here, I'm focusing more on what the market and the price are doing. The last liquidity grab was on this candle. So, theoretically, this quarterly low could mark our bottom and a bullish recovery on Solana. So, this is a zone that absolutely needs to be watched. I'm telling you, it's the quarterly low. It could really be a bottom zone here on Solana. Eventually, if the price comes to purge this low, again, it's a good zone. So, in fact, in the mentorship, I explain a strategy that is very, very simple: buy sell liquidity and set sell orders in the fair value gaps. Now, I'll go into detail about the strategy, but here, for example, it would look like this. I place a buy order here. I set a sell order here, I set a second sell order here, I set a third sell order here, I set a fourth sell order here. I buy here at $126, I do the same. I set one, two, three, four sell orders here. I buy here, I also set one, two, three, four sell orders here. In fact, this allows accumulation on the way down while returning to key levels. When we talk about key levels, we're talking about these large fair value gaps that are filled 9 times out of 10. So, already, if I buy at $140, I know I can sell between $168 and $182 at a minimum because these zones are very often filled. For example, why would I talk about investment strategies in these price zones? Because precisely, we have fair value gaps there, and therefore there are high probabilities that the market will return there one day. And if we return there, you shouldn't be the one panicking, you should be the one positioning yourself because this is where we'll likely have long-term entries. For example, if you look at Solana's previous bear market, here, we filled up to the last monthly fair value gap. Now, who could have thought that we would go from $2 to $200 and then come back to $8? I'm not saying it will happen, I'm just saying that if it happens, you have to take it as an opportunity and not panic. No, you have to be the one to position yourself. This is where we have the best opportunities. Again, I don't know if we'll go back there. But what I'm explaining in general is that if, in my opinion, the price returns to this low, it will be even more interesting to go and seek this low, so the 2025 low. Now, we're talking about investment strategies because from a technical point of view, well, it's a bearish dynamic. What would cause us to reverse the dynamic? Well, by forming higher lows and higher highs. So, here, the price is doing this, it's a bearish dynamic. There's a high chance that if we have a rebound, we'll be rejected in this fair value gap zone and continue to fall to seek the next sell-side liquidity. So, range $144, $126, maybe even the 2025 low at $95. I'm not saying we're going there again. And so here, if we continue this bearish dynamic, well, theoretically, here are the targets, I just gave them to you. Now, to reverse the dynamic, we take the quarterly low, and then if the price starts to reverse its dynamic, it makes ascending lows and ascending highs, then there will potentially be a new bullish phase because, in addition to that, there were the ETFs. Now, ETFs are good, but the ETF news arrived here, and since then it's been a descending peak. This means that the market had already priced in this ETF news, and in the short to medium term, it doesn't think, the market doesn't price in the fact that money will flow into ETFs. Here, I'm showing you the Solana ETFs. Now, I don't know if they've included the USD ETFs. If they have, there's a little bit of money coming in, especially with staking, but the inflows are quite weak for now. So, it's important to understand that for now, it's not attracting a lot of attention. Now, $70 million isn't bad, $30 million, etc., but it's not what will really build a long-term trend. Personally, I think Solana is one of the crypto products that will have the most attractiveness at some point just because of staking. So, that's already a good thing. That's why you need to prepare a long-term investment strategy. And we'll get to that to finish this video. What would be the long-term investment strategy? As usual, when we invest in a crypto, we generally do it from the reload zones. For example, here, we can see that we entered a reload zone and the market immediately reversed here. This means that investors are interested in buying this zone. So, this zone here is between $120 and $70. Coincidentally, there's the 2025 low at $95, and coincidentally, there's the 2024 low here at $79. So, already, we know that these are major zones if we ever get there. You need to position yourself, don't sleep, position yourself here. From my point of view, this is not about investment. What I would personally do is position myself here on spot if I wanted Solana in my portfolio. And since the zones would be extremely interesting, I repeat, we would buy annual lows in a reload zone. What more could you ask for? We assume that the market will never return below this 2022 low. I repeat, we assume, we could very well return there, but if I had to give a probability, I'd say it's 3% probable. I don't think Solana will go back below $8. So, I assume that theoretically, the bottom, if I had to find a zone of very high probability for a next bullish phase, for me it would be below these annual lows. The price formed a low here, it purges here, it forms an ascending low for the coming years, and then we continue. That's how I see things if we are to go and seek these lows and we enter the reload zone. When we combine the reload zone, there are interesting price zones, notably these fair value gap zones here. So, for me, anything below $95 is long-term investment. To play what? To play the 2025 peak, because yes, there will be the 2025 peak which will be the ATH, and then possibly bullish extensions, since we are currently still in a QT, meaning that liquidity restriction is still present. I can show you this. The Fed has reduced its balance sheet from 2022 until today. It will stop doing so from December 1st. So, that's quite positive. And then it doesn't mean QE, it means a transition phase, and probably a next QE perhaps in the next 12-24 months. Also, net liquidity in the United States is not telling us that money is coming in. What we are being told is that currently liquidity is continuing to contract. Also, when we look at Global Net Liquidity, this is global liquidity, similarly, we are not in a QE. You need to know that at some point QE will return, very likely, because the economy will contract, contract, contract, and at some point it will break, and the Fed will intervene. That's how it always happens. Well, we don't have enough occurrences yet. Again, but well, we can assume that will be the case, because we already see the evolution of GDP, etc., the labor market, etc., etc. We also assume that AI will put a lot of people out of work. It's already starting, the United States, Amazon has cut over 30,000 jobs, they will cut, sorry, over 30,000 jobs in the coming weeks. So, we already know that a lot of people will find themselves unemployed, and that will slow down the economy, and that's what can favor a QE in the coming months, not now, but perhaps in 12-24 months. By the way, I'll prepare a video for you, maybe tomorrow or next week, on how liquidity impacts the Altcoin market and what could happen. Now, I repeat, these are interesting zones. I don't know if we'll get there, but in any case, if I were to position myself long-term, personally, I wouldn't do it here. Well, I'm not saying I wouldn't do it here, but I hate buying where everyone bought. How to know where people bought? You put a volume profile and you look at where the volume was executed. There are a lot of investors positioned here. So, if we want to make them panic, we have to go back below this zone. And below these levels, below these zones, there are troughs. And in fact, troughs in the volume profile. So, if I look from the bottom, you set your chart like this with the volume profile, and it directly gives you the zones where people panic. It's visible, in fact, here, I can even hide the price. We no longer look at the price, so we imagine that the price doesn't exist. Well, you know what? Let's do that. Let's do that. Here, we know directly that here there's strong panic. Here there's strong panic. Here there would be very, very strong panic if we returned. Why? Because support zones and high volume zones, high volume, were traded here between $128 and $150. This means that if you go below this zone, there are only stop losses and liquidations that will fall afterwards because everyone who bought there will panic, will sell their spot, and those who bought on margin will be liquidated and stopped in this trough zone. So, already we know that $125-$110 is a pretty good zone. After that, I put the price, I already see that it's been worked quite a bit. So, if I had to identify a capitulation zone where everyone will freak out and everyone risks capitulating, it's more here, it's in this trough because this trough has already been worked. Well, I can't guess that, I have to look at the price, and I see that it was here. And you see, it was a capitulation zone. As you can see. The price made a low at $100, it went back up to $250. Now, the fact that we are failing to make a new high suggests that the price may revisit this low, and that the next panic zone will be here between $93 and $74. And strangely, this corresponds to our 2025 low at $95 and our 2024 low at $79. So, if I had to commit and think about a capitulation, there are two zones. This one seems very low to me, honestly, between $55 and $30. After that, well, maybe Solana will revisit these zones. In any case, don't panic, position yourself. But broadly speaking, the next high probability investment zone for success long-term is more here. So, I'll clear that. I'll reduce the opacity because, well, it's funny for 2 minutes but you can't see anything anymore. There. So, I'm removing all the RLZ, etc. But when you look at the volume profile, if we start to drop below $150, panic will arrive on Sol quite quickly at $120 on the bottom of the range. The bottom of the range can be bought. It's a good entry again. I mean, long-term, $120 is not bad for Solana. Then we assume that we will go back above the ATH, then we will see the extension levels. And here, to come back, it's really in this trough. It's really in this trough here. After that, you can possibly, well, I don't know if it will work because I'll switch to monthly, otherwise I'll reduce the precision of the volume profile. Here, let's put, for example, 150. But here, the trough, we'll see it directly. It's here. You see, the trough between $93 and $75, below the two annual lows. So, this is where people will start to freak out, very likely. It's really here. For example, if we take the previous cycle, I'll do the same for you, we see the panic zones. Here, there was a huge hole in the volume profile. Wait, I'll really take the bottom and the top here to estimate the zones that would have a chance of marking bottoms. There was this trough here between $70 and $50. So, that didn't work, the market went lower. And then there was this big zone, we see it between $25 and $17. There was also a second one, and that was the last zone. So, the trough, I see it here between $12 and $9.40, and for that matter, it's at the last trough that it capitulated. But these trough zones long-term are very interesting. That is to say, if you buy troughs in value, you buy where people couldn't buy. So, you buy at good prices. Because when people can't buy at these levels, and you buy them, you buy price zones that people couldn't buy. So, you do better than 95% of investors. And that's how you outperform. So, there was this trough, this second one, this third one. So, if you had bought this first trough, this one, and this third one, you would have an average purchase price, let's say, $30. Well, you made a good investment since we made almost x10 afterwards. So, this works very well. Again, this doesn't mean we'll go back to these zones. I want to emphasize that. Troughs in the volume profile also correspond to fair value gap zones. Very generally. For example, if I switch to semi-annual, there's no need to be a genius to see that there's a huge fair value gap and that normally it will correspond to a trough in value. Exactly. Here, I see one, I see a second one, I see a third one. So, that's why I'm talking about these zones. Again, I don't know if we'll get there. I want to emphasize that. It's just to tell you that if it presents itself to you, you'll want to panic, to capitulate. Whereas this is where you need to position yourself because people couldn't do it. There are holes, there's almost no one who bought these price zones. So, if we ever get there, those who bought there are at a loss, they are in a panic position. Those who bought there too. So, if you already have all these investors panicking in there, it's a very good entry, and very often what the price does here is absorb the volume. We buy the panic volumes here. I'll give a simple example and I'll stop there today. I'll take Bitcoin and the Covid crash right here. Well, I'll remove the volume profile. I invite you to do as I do if you want to work with precise zones. You take what's called the visible range volume profile, the fixed range, sorry, here. And then you can draw the volume profile from point A to point B. Look at the hole we left in value here. Hop, this is where we bottomed out during Covid. Why? Because, well, of course, BitMex had shut down the servers, otherwise we would have had a chance to go to zero. In short, what happened with Atom could have happened with Bitcoin in March 2020 due to derivatives. But broadly speaking, people bought this support massively. We go under the support, there are troughs, there's panic, we buy back, we go up, tick tick tick tick tick tick. The next support zone is here. You freak everyone out. Where? Under the support. Strangely, there's a huge hole in value. This is exactly where we stopped in this fair value zone. And you can look at this even on the 2017-2018 bull run. I'll put a fixed range again, right here. You take this low point, this high point, you look at where the holes in value are. And so, holes in value are good investment zones. There's one here. You buy here at $5000, you're really well off. There's another hole here in value. Ah, well, strangely, this is where we bottomed out. There was another one here. That is to say, if we had dropped, if we had dropped below the support here of $1800, it would have been a very good long-term entry as well. You don't know how far the market will go. Well, after reversal structures, so we can well imagine that the bottom is here. But when you are in a market, you don't know how far the market will scare you. But what you need to understand is that you need to buy below the price zones that everyone is buying. And so, people are buying massively here in the, they bought massively in the $4500-$5000 range. There's a high chance that the price will go for the trough just below to recover the orders of these buyers who will panic. And so, well, you can look at that. I can even have fun doing it on the previous bear market. I'll take my fixed range as usual. Well, each time I say that, it's the last example, but well, it's for those who stayed until the end, it's a gift. Here, we look, is it wise to buy there? Well, the support is there. The market will cause panic below the support, and here your trough zone, there are a lot of them. I see one here, I see one here, I see another one here. Strangely, all of this has been worked. We haven't returned there because if we had returned there, it would have been necessary to make people panic, it could have gone below $7000 and so on. We didn't go that low. But here, theoretically, I see a few small troughs lingering here. So, I note one at $14,000, I note one at $17,000, I note a very big one right here which marked our bottom, by the way. And I note one here as well. So, these were very good entries too. This is where people capitulated and panicked on BTC. Again, I repeat, it's not because this has worked many times in the past that it will work again. If I put it similarly here in a fixed range, but in fact it corresponds to the fair value gaps for those who are wondering why we go into fair value gaps, it's because fair value gaps often cover supports and therefore zones where people will panic. But if I take a fixed range of the previous movement, where was the trough in value? It was here. Where did we bottom out? It's here. Because this is where people are afraid because they are used to the previous price, we drop below support, and all the volume is recovered below support in the FVGs. So, well, here for example, if we want to do the same thing on BTC, again, I already know, it will correspond to these FVG zones because FVGs are holes in value. But where are our holes in value here? Ah, strangely, there was one here. Ah, well, this is where buying starts again. The next one, if this one doesn't hold, will be to break the support. This is where people will start to freak out. It corresponds to the FVG. Here we see that the big hole in value is up to here. Well, that's the fair value gap zone. So, this is already an interesting zone, and if it slides down to this zone, then that too. So, that's why I explained this on Solana. Well, it's a huge video after all, I was supposed to make a 10-minute one, it's 22 minutes long. I hope you enjoyed it. If you really did, bombard the thumbs up. 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