Transcription
[Music] This is a system [singing] general feed [music] in the market. And this is Fan >> Fuel cost management system with no hidden fees, plus benefits [music] and Max Point. E-B-S-O Thao. Hello, General Rangsi. >> Hello, Khun Thani. Viewers and listeners at home. >> General Rangsi Kityansap, leader of the Economy Party. Uh, after the Iran war, we've discussed it many times. I thought we'd move on to other matters, but it's not over yet. It's still dragging on for a long time, especially the 5 waves of attacks that have passed. Last night there was a severe attack, and I understand that Iran's threat is that if there's an attack on infrastructure, they will close the Strait of Hormuz. Which is a very important strait. General Rangsi, please analyze what will happen in the global economic situation if the Strait of Hormuz is closed. >> Well, 20% of the world's energy passes through the Strait of Hormuz. About 12% passes through the Strait of Bab al-Mandeb. But in Bab al-Mandeb, what's connected is the Suez Canal. Khun Thani, the Suez Canal is a sea route for Europe-Asia, Asia-Europe. And it's not just energy that passes through, but also petrochemicals, raw materials, and trade between Asia and Europe. The value of the damage, I think, is high. And importantly, if these two straits are closed, it's over 30% of the world's energy supply chain. From prices, from raw materials, or from anything that has to pass through the Suez Canal, the combined impact of closing these two straits is enormous. And I believe it will lead to severe inflation. It's predicted that if the Strait of Bab al-Mandeb is closed, energy prices will surge to $110 per barrel. In the worst-case scenario, they're looking at around $200 per barrel if the Strait of Bab al-Mandeb is closed for more than 1 month. Because today, we have to admit that the strategic oil reserves of all countries have been depleted significantly. During the intermittent opening and closing of the Strait of Hormuz, it could pass, but not much. Khun Thani, but the oil reserves are running out. Imagine if the Strait of Bab al-Mandeb is also closed, making oil even scarcer. And if the oil reserves are almost depleted, and crude oil cannot be exported, Khun Thani, what do you think the price will surge to? And if the price surges higher, what follows is inflation, Khun Thani. And the supply chain, or what we call the supply chain in English, will be broken worldwide. And I see it this way: if Iran and the Houthis decide to close the Strait of Bab al-Mandeb, it will be a turning point in this war. Meaning the situation of this war in the Middle East will worsen. Because the United States will have to take action to ensure both the Strait of Bab al-Mandeb and the Strait of Hormuz are opened. This will open two battlefronts simultaneously: between the Houthi group, which is already fighting Saudi Arabia, and today Trump said next week they will attack. Civilian targets. And in Iran, which is getting closer and closer to Tehran. If they decide to attack Tehran, I believe this war will expand, and there will be no more possibility of negotiation from now on. This is the fear of closing the Strait of Bab al-Mandeb. And don't forget that in the Strait of Bab al-Mandeb, there are also 7 underwater cables that control the internet system and money transfer systems. It is said that if these cables are cut, internet communication between Asia and Europe will be lost by 30%. Replacing it with satellites, it's said, cannot compensate, just like people think oil pipelines can replace these straits. It cannot be done because the volume is small and the risk is high if they are bombed. Oil shortages will be even more severe today. Therefore, today, I see that closing the Strait of Bab al-Mandeb will be a fatal point where negotiation will no longer be possible, and it will cause the war to expand and possibly spread to the Strait of Malacca. >> But from Iran's perspective, Iran must also hesitate a bit, right? If they do that, the Houthis, who are not a very large force, can they withstand fighting Saudi Arabia or even the United States that is attacking them so severely? Perhaps they can't close it. I'd like to see their capability. Can they really close this strait as they threatened? >> Well, let me put it this way. The Houthi forces, as far as I know, are the main force. But whether the Houthis can stand or not depends on the weapons Iran provides them. Because the latest news is that Iran has already given rockets and drones to the Houthis. They have increased their strength. We've seen it, Khun Thani. The Iran-US war that started on February 28th, which the US and UK predicted would be resolved in 2 weeks, they would kill Soleimani. But in the end, 4 months have passed, and this is the second round of war, and they couldn't do anything. Why? Because Iran's weapons haven't been depleted as the US thought. The US attacks Iran, and Iran attacks back equally without depletion, and continuously with US weapons. The US itself has problems, which is why they had to draft the 14-point agreement. But the 14-point agreement has proven today to be a delaying tactic. They've increased their strength. But this time, the US is attacking Iran's mainland. I believe the US is using a strategy of all-out war with Iran, meaning they are testing the Iranian people. If the Iranian people can't bear it, the Tehran government will be in trouble, right? Therefore, I believe this time the Tehran government must counter the game, just like when they were blocked at the Strait of Hormuz. >> And this time? >> This time, the question is, how will Iran counter the game? When the US is attacking Iran's mainland, many people say that if Iran is in this situation now, and if Iran has hypersonic missiles that can reach America, Iran must... attack America's mainland too. That's a fair exchange. I believe this can stop it, because if the American people are affected by the rockets Iran fires, I believe they will have a hard time, because the American people have never been attacked in their country. This will be the first time in American history. But if Iran defends like this and is attacked like this, I believe the Tehran government will be in trouble. >> Is it possible that Iran has missiles with a range of tens of thousands of kilometers? They must have received help from China and Russia. >> Well, today, we don't need to ask if China and Russia fully support them. Because Russia has parked an aircraft, called an air command and control aircraft, in Iran. This means Russia is fully involved. Because this aircraft has very high capabilities in targeting and gathering information on targets. In the world, as far as I know, only two countries have it: the US and Russia. Today, Russia has deployed it directly to Iran. This shows they are announcing to the world that Russia is helping Iran. And the fact that Iran can fight the US continuously like this, if it were just Iran alone, it would be impossible, Khun Thani. We've received news that China and North Korea are sending weapons to Russia, who then transports them to Iran. I believe this is true. Iran would have no way to retaliate against the US to this extent and sustain it. And the targeting is so accurate that the US has to agree to negotiate. But what is the US negotiating for? To adjust plans, to add more weapons. And today, it has been proven that after adjusting plans and adding weapons, the fighting continues. And the US will continue to do surprise attacks on Iran as before. These past 6 days have been surprise attacks. Because suddenly, after negotiations stopped, they attacked heavily and continuously for 6 days. And next week, Trump announced he will attack Iran's mainland, especially Tehran. So we have to keep watching. Because closing the Strait of Bab al-Mandeb, I believe, will cause energy prices to become unaffordable. This time, inflation will surge. It will change the global supply chain system, Khun Thani. It's a very big deal. I'm telling you, if the Strait of Bab al-Mandeb is closed, and the Strait of Hormuz... >> Yes, as we know, about 7 million barrels of oil leaving Saudi Arabia pass through the Suez Canal and the Strait of Bab al-Mandeb. This would reduce the problem, but if this is closed, it will be even worse. So the situation may become severe. I'd like to see the next scene. What does Donald Trump really want? In Donald Trump's mind, he wants to overthrow Iran and regain control of the Middle East as before. This is definitely his goal. But regarding the goal he has set, personally, I think Iran will never yield. Especially the Iranian people, as General Rangsi mentioned earlier, that whether they win or lose depends on whether the Iranian people continue to support the government. I think it's very difficult for the Iranian people to yield. Right now, Iran, as seen in the funeral procession of Qassem Soleimani, people from every household came out as families. I don't think they are motivated by money. They must come out with their own spirit. And the people who come out, each of them has an attitude of full support for the government. There are no opposition factions to be found. And their patriotism, I see the images and am confident that they are united. Therefore, I think the Iranian people will strongly resist America, and will do so forever, with no possibility of change. So I think that regarding regime change and things like that, it's unlikely. How will Iran be overthrown? If you look at it this way, is there a chance of overthrow? >> If the US attacks Iran alone, attacking Iran's mainland, destroying infrastructure, I ask, if the Iranian people's lives get worse and worse, and the Iranian government cannot stop it, then who will be spared? Unless the Iranian government decides to attack America's mainland, then it's a fair exchange. Because in the past, the US attacked Iranian military bases, and Iran attacked US bases. Today, the US has shifted to attacking Iranian civilians. Therefore, Iran must also attack US civilians. And regarding missiles, I believe they have a range of tens of thousands of kilometers to reach America. Whether they are in Iran, Russia, or China, I believe they can ask for them because they are close allies who have been together for a long time. Khun Thani, no one will betray anyone. Because if one withdraws, they will collapse, right? If that happens, Khun Thani, will you win the hearts of the Iranian people? The Iranian people will surely accept it because our government dares to fire into the United States. Therefore, I believe the Iranian people can endure it if they are attacked in Iran. But if they just sit and wait to receive rockets and bombs, I believe the Iranian people cannot endure it, Khun Thani. The Iranian people will wonder why we don't attack their country. Right? This is what I'm saying, it will be a turning point in the war. And if the Strait of Bab al-Mandeb is truly closed, I believe it will be an all-out war. Because the US itself cannot tolerate the oil shortage, as US oil reserves will run out in August, Khun Thani, according to news reported even in the US, right? And it's possible. Because the Strait of Bab al-Mandeb is intermittently open and closed, the Strait of Hormuz. Don't forget that the world's oil demand is 100 million barrels. The US alone uses 20 million barrels per day. China is second, using 15 million barrels per day. For Thailand, we use 1 million barrels per day. So you can imagine, with the intermittent opening and closing of Hormuz, how many ships can pass? 100 million barrels require at least 50 ships per day, Khun. Therefore, we have to see what will happen next. I see it this way: today, let's watch closely whether Iran and the Houthis dare to close the Strait of Bab al-Mandeb. If they really close it, I believe a large naval battle, both on land, in the air, and at sea, will occur. This time, there will be no more talking, no understanding. >> Both sides have declared they will not talk. [Cough] The chance of talking will be less. They will have to fight to the death until one side is severely injured, and then they will talk again. The 14 points have already been discarded. >> If they start negotiating again, it will be with new conditions. >> Uh, new conditions, we'll discuss them. >> But as I said, the situation of closing the Strait of Bab al-Mandeb will be something that adds fuel to the fire, Khun Thani. >> Yes. [Cough] Of course, it will affect everyone in the world. The economy will collapse. This will lead to everything being negotiable. If it doesn't affect the world, the impact is small, and everyone doesn't want to get involved. Now, if it affects them like this, will Russia send 10,000 kg of missiles for Iran to fire? From the perspective of its consequences, will it lead to further conflict between Russia and the US? >> No, I see it this way. These two superpowers, Khun Thani, cannot avoid an all-out war where one superpower must fall. There's no way it can continue like this. Ultimately, I believe one superpower will achieve a decisive victory, and the other superpower will have to yield. But who it will be, no one can say, because each side has its own strategy, right? >> If it leads to an all-out war, it means it will spread to other battlefronts, right? It's not just fighting in Hormuz. If it doesn't spread, there's no issue, right? If you look at it this way. >> Well, today, Khun Thani, let's not talk about Russia-Ukraine. I believe it will get worse. >> It will spread to the Middle East. Today, we see that they will never understand each other. And the South China Sea... is perfect. >> This is what I'm still wondering about. How will it get involved with the South China Sea countries? Since it's a conflict between Iran and the US, if China doesn't get involved, it shouldn't spread, right? And China seems quiet now, not wanting to get involved. >> I see it this way: whenever Iran and the Houthis close the Strait of Bab al-Mandeb, I believe America will block the Strait of Malacca. >> They >> To draw China into the game. To draw China into the game, for what? America knows that Iran is standing today because of China and Russia's support. And don't forget, Khun Thani, closing the Strait of Bab al-Mandeb will shake the entire continent because it's the main route, the Suez Canal. Therefore, it will force Germany, Britain, and France to get involved. News is already coming out that if the Strait of Bab al-Mandeb is closed, Germany, Britain, and France will join the war to open the strait with America. At that time, I believe Russia and America... I mean, Russia and China will never allow Iran to be cornered like this. >> Khun Thani, you must understand that every war has a turning point. If Japan hadn't bombed Pearl Harbor, the US would never have entered the war. If JFK's father hadn't shown the images of Hitler's genocide, America would have had no excuse to go to war with Germany. There are turning points for everything, Khun Thani. >> Uh-huh. >> So don't think it's impossible. Because everyone initially said that with the 14-point agreement, everything would be over. Where is it over? It's worse than before. And this time, they've gone directly into Iran's mainland, not the borders anymore. Even Isfahan was hit. From now on, I'm confident that if they can't understand each other, Tehran, because it's doing it itself, doesn't have many options. Especially if the news is true that strategic oil reserves are running out, they have to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, right? Because if they negotiate the 14 points, and there's another 2 months of negotiation, it won't end. In 2 months, it won't end. What about the oil reserves? I believe that the US oil reserves running out is the reason Trump tore up the 14-point agreement. He calculated that if they negotiate like this, it will end. Therefore, it's better to go all out. Because don't forget, Trump cannot make such a big decision alone. He must have advisors, consultants, a cabinet. Especially the Zionists, because the Zionists control the global economy, at least for 60 years, right? Therefore, from now on, Khun Thani, we just have to watch whether Iran and the Houthis decide to close it for real. If they close it, I believe the disaster will start counting from 1 immediately. >> If General Rangsi thinks it will be a disaster, the Houthis and Iran probably also think that closing the Strait of Bab al-Mandeb will not improve anything, it will only make things worse. Will they willingly jump into the fire? Perhaps they won't close it if you look at it this way. >> Oh, again, Khun Thani, don't you think Iran and the Houthis might think that if they close the Strait of Bab al-Mandeb, the US might agree to negotiate? >> It's possible. >> Oh. >> Yes, it's possible. >> But Khun Thani, you must understand that some things, you think about your enemy, but they might think differently. >> It has happened many times. >> Uh-huh. >> From things that seemed unlikely, they happened. >> Yes. >> Don't think about it. Hun Sen and us. Let me give a close example. Uh-huh. >> He thought that by fighting us on land [cough] to allow us to have 50-50 overlapping areas in the sea, and what happened? Is there anything left today? Nothing is left. [Cough] His economy collapsed due to his wrong decisions. He thought that by clashing with us at Prasat Ta Kwai, Prasat Ta Muang during the first 5 days of fighting, and he thought that his 5 days of fighting, by firing BM-21s and so on, we would agree to negotiate with him for maritime interests. In the end, what happened? Everything collapsed. This is the turning point of the war, Khun Thani. Uh-huh. Uh-huh. Uh-huh. >> Here, let me give an example of Hun Sen. And today he says, "Well, the Angkor issue can be discussed, but regarding maritime interests, 50-50, is that okay? Are you crazy?" >> It's already gone beyond negotiation. Just like Iran now might be thinking in one way. >> Uh-huh. >> America will think in another way. >> Uh-huh. >> The reason they are arguing is because they both think differently. >> Yes. >> Uh. >> Yes. >> That's all. >> Yes. >> Their interests don't align, and they see things from different perspectives. They both want to win, so it never ends. But Donald Trump, in terms of legitimacy, Donald Trump is completely wrong if you look at it this way. The world should look at it with fairness. He shouldn't do this. General Rangsi, what do you think? If you look at it, why does Trump have to do this much to control oil, to defeat China and Russia? >> Khun Thani, don't forget that the American nation has been great for 80 years. They control the futures market, oil, and gold. They can set stock prices worldwide. They force people to use the dollar, force them to use bonds. They are confident. And their military, with their fleets, their bases worldwide, over 800 locations. But as the world changes, they haven't... they still hold onto their old ideas. But the other side has been quietly catching up, improving weapons, improving the economy, preparing. One day, when it explodes and they collide like this, they realize, "Oh my, everything I thought was wrong." I believe the US... this is a loophole. Because they were so great in the past. When the leader of a country attended a meeting, the leader of that country had to bow down. Because if the US boycotted them, they would go bankrupt. In the past, but why is it not like that now? They speak, and you retort. They bomb Iran, and Iran retaliates. And think about how many countries in the world dare to bomb US bases, Khun Thani? But today, the US has been hit hard. In the past, it was devastated. Iran is not alone. This is what is called Donald Trump's shock: "Hey, why is my power so low now?" And when they actually fight, they can't win. This is why, Khun Thani. Because sometimes, Khun Thani, you have to understand that people with high egos, who have been in power for a long time but haven't thought about improving or keeping up with the opponent, as Sun Tzu said, "Know your enemy and know yourself, fight a hundred battles, win a hundred battles." "Know your enemy, don't know yourself, fight a hundred battles, win fifty." "Don't know your enemy, don't know yourself, fight a hundred battles, lose a hundred." This has happened to Donald Trump today. Because he was so confident, right? "Hey, I'll bring my fleet, you're not as strong. I'll bring F-5, F-35, B-2, B-52, it will be over. Surprise attack! Attack 500 points, throw in all my strength, they must change." They didn't change. This is why, Khun Thani, the number one superpower in the world, the US, is stumbling over itself today, right? Anything can happen. Today, Khun Thani, don't forget, the situation of Iran and America, neither side is yielding. It's very difficult to negotiate because the conditions don't allow for negotiation. It's only going to be a fight. Yes, they have to fight to determine victory or defeat. >> And I still believe that ultimately, these two powers will clash. But in this fight, whoever's economy collapses first loses. And whose economy collapses first will be forced by the war, like the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This is purely economic warfare, Khun Thani. >> Yes. >> The US announcement of import tariffs is purely economic warfare. >> Yes. >> And the war of weapons will drive the economic war, right? >> Yes. >> Here. >> Now I want to connect to the Indo-Pacific. Recently, the Minister of Defense went to a meeting in Hawaii. I don't know what the outcome was. I'd like General Rangsi to analyze the situation in the Indo-Pacific. Recently, Prime Minister Hun Sen met with Prime Minister Manne in Shanghai at the invitation of Xi Jinping. How does this connect to the events? >> Well, let me summarize for Thailand. No matter who you meet, when you return, you must remember: "I will not allow anyone to establish military bases, and I will not get involved in their wars." That's all, Khun Thani. But how the superpowers pressure you is another matter. But you must not flatter them. If you flatter one side, your country will be in ruins. Because being forced and being willing are not the same, Khun Thani. >> Yes. >> So, those who are willing... those who are forced... >> Uh-huh. >> So today, whether our minister meets with the US, or our prime minister meets with China, when they return, they must remember: "I will not allow anyone to establish military bases, and I will not allow anyone to use us as a base for their wars." For these two superpowers, whether it's China or the US, because we are not in a position to defend ourselves. And I believe that if they fight in the South China Sea, China cannot protect us, and the US cannot protect us either, because their weapons are very evenly matched, Khun Thani. We've seen this from Ukraine and the Middle East. And both. >> And why did Xi Jinping invite Thailand and Cambodia to talk in Shanghai? >> I see it this way: China also cannot afford to lose both Thailand and Cambodia. If China sides with one, say, with Cambodia, and we side with America, China will be tired. If China sides with Thailand, Cambodia will run to America, and China will be tired. Because for the encirclement of China, America will definitely use our neighboring countries as bases for their military bases. Because America is far away, but China can fight on its mainland because it has both drones and missiles. In this region, like the Strait of Malacca, Chinese missiles can reach it. Therefore, China does not want its satellite countries in this region to allow America to establish military bases. But America also wants to use countries in this region to establish bases, Khun Thani. That's all there is to it now. It's a competition for allies. >> What they are discussing is probably mediation, right? That if Thailand and Cambodia have any disputes, China will decide. Is that it? Or is it that >> Uh-huh. >> Our challenges are no different from Iran and the US. We also have the 14-point MOU. >> Yes. >> We also have 43, 44 MOUs. Can we understand each other? It's been 26 years. >> Yes. >> Simply put, just regarding the demarcation of land areas. We say we need to use a 1:50,000 map. Cambodia says we need to use a 1:2,000 map. Which country will finish talking? The 44 points might be used. If the UN points out where sovereignty lies, and Cambodia doesn't accept it, what happens? Right? So it's difficult to talk. China knows this. Because China itself is currently not accepted by 14 countries as the owner of the territory in the South China Sea, right? So, border demarcation issues are a problem worldwide, Khun Thani. But I believe China is trying to get them to talk. Meaning, "Don't fight, just talk." Because China also wants to be someone who wins the hearts of both sides. But it's difficult, Khun Thani. Unless, the easiest way, Khun Thani. >> Yes. >> China makes you sign. >> Yes. >> And change it to Teayaban. I believe we can talk to Teayaban. >> Yes, change the leader. >> Correct. >> It's better. >> Because the problem is not with us, the problem is with Hun Sen. >> Yes. >> Because he thinks crazy things. >> Yes. So it sounds like there's a chance that Hun Sen will have to leave because he's old and his work efficiency is gone. The chance of changing leaders is high. Or even >> If it were me, if I were the Prime Minister, and I had the opportunity to talk to Xi Jinping, personally, according to protocol. >> Yes. >> I would talk to Xi Jinping and confirm that I will never allow America to use us as a military base. >> Yes. >> Including China. >> Yes. >> But I ask for one thing: make Mr. Sen step down. [Cough] >> This condition is also interesting. >> No, and I would propose: bring the Crown Prince Chakri, whom China has prepared. I guarantee this government, I will be the first in ASEAN to announce it. >> Huh? Support, support, support the opposition. Uh-huh. >> Announce recognition of the government from Teayaban. >> Yes. So there's a chance. Because there is a scheduled visit to Thailand by the Chinese Minister of Defense next week. It has been confirmed that they will travel to discuss in-depth details about security cooperation and resolving the Thai-Cambodian border dispute. There will probably be ways to discuss and resolve it. China probably won't wait like this, Khun Thani. If they use a 1:50,000 map, it will be resolved. Believe me. >> Yes, so it can probably be forced. Why are you so backward that you want to use 1:200,000? >> It's abnormal, unnatural. So stop it. >> And whoever is where, they stay there. >> Yes. >> The watershed on the cliff, let's follow the actual principle. >> Yes, that's it. >> Correct? It's not that the cliff is on our side, but they built a ladder up and said it's theirs. That's crazy. >> Uh. >> That's why I say we follow all the rules and regulations. >> Hun Sen is thinking crazy things. He has to stop his thoughts. Understand? I think China understands. China is also a normal human being. >> But to meet with a disabled person like Hun Sen, they must understand what needs to be done. >> He's a special case, this Hun Sen. [Laughter] >> Yes. So it's about negotiation. Negotiation must proceed. Because the reason is that China cannot afford to have Thailand and Cambodia in conflict. And the deep-sea port is strategically important. If the deep-sea port cannot be used because Thailand does not agree or does not cooperate, the deep-sea port is meaningless. I'd like General Rangsi to analyze whether the deep-sea port is a key element for China in opposing America. >> The deep-sea port is important because, if you look at the map, it's the first thing you encounter after passing through the Strait of Malacca. >> Yes. >> Therefore, China placing two frigates there is for them to wait for an all-out war with the US if the Strait of Malacca is blocked. China cannot accept this. >> Yes. >> And these two ships, I am confident that China did not bring them to fight Thailand. >> Yes. >> Because if it's the deep-sea port, Khun Thani, even Hun Sen himself cannot enter it, I tell you. >> Yes. >> It's like when we let the US use Utapao in the past. Thailand could enter where? >> It's not related to Thailand. Uh. >> The US used the entire airport, but couldn't enter everywhere, Khun Thani. >> Yes, yes. >> Because they consider it their sovereign territory. >> Yes. [Cough] >> Yes. So it's important. But I believe China is not very confident in Hun Sen. Uh-huh. >> Because he's someone who is unpredictable. He decides to change, and he changes. He doesn't care. He decides to come back to them, and he does so shamelessly. Uh, yes. >> He doesn't feel any right or wrong. He just says, "I don't care, I'll be me." >> Talking to him is difficult. You have to >> Talking to him, being vigilant 24 hours a day, for what? >> Yes. >> Getting rid of him is the end of it, right? >> Yes. >> Because I believe that someone like Hun Sen, who has managed the country so disastrously, is not like the Khmer Rouge. >> Yes. >> I believe when Hun Sen dies, Cambodia will celebrate with fireworks. [Laughter] >> Yes. But what is greatly affected is the current situation in the Indo-Pacific or the Pacific Ocean. There is Japan, a key variable, which has now declared its power by increasing its military budget and conducting joint exercises with the Philippines. Recently, the Philippines bought two frigates from Japan and 20 fighter jets from South Korea, which is a significant increase in military spending. General Rangsi, please analyze the First Island Chain: Japan, Korea, Taiwan, Philippines. How will China solve this problem of being encircled? >> I see it this way: when Xi Jinping met Kim Jong Un, Xi Jinping gave Kim Jong Un a mission for South Korea and Japan. >> Yes. >> That is, South Korea will use its ground forces, and Kim Jong Un will use ground forces to seize South Korea, but use missiles to attack Japan. >> Yes. >> As for China, it will encircle Taiwan. >> Attack the Philippines. >> Uh-huh. >> I believe that's a trivial matter. >> Uh-huh. >> Because China and North Korea have abundant weapons. >> Uh-huh. >> Both missiles and drones. >> Yes. >> But what China is most concerned about is the Strait of Malacca. >> Uh-huh. >> Because if the Strait of Malacca is closed, it's no different from Hormuz. >> Oh, and what they have planned, the BRI, will it not help them? Ports like Jiaoqi, Gwadar, will they not help at all? >> Maritime transport is the type of transport that carries the largest volume, Khun Thani. >> Yes. >> BRI is a backup route. >> Yes. >> And it can carry some types. >> Uh-huh. >> Khun Thani, how will you transport oil and gas via the East-West route? I'm just asking. >> Yes, a little bit. >> Even Saudi Arabia and the UAE, who are building gas pipelines, can only transport 1/4 of the volume transported by sea. >> Yes. >> It can be used for some things, Khun Thani. >> Yes. >> That's why I say the East-West route is China's important strategy. >> Yes. >> Once we build it, our country will prosper extremely. >> Well, the Strait of Malacca, what is the chance of it being closed? If you analyze it simply, how will they close it? Will they use warships to seize and block the strait, preventing anyone from passing? >> That is, the US might pull its fleet from the Atlantic. >> Huh? >> And close it. Prevent ships from passing. >> Prevent ships from passing for what reason? >> For US reasons. Reasons like Trump's. To protect themselves. >> To protect themselves, and will the rest of the world accept it? People in East Asia, Thailand, ASEAN will all die. >> Oh, but today, America does many things, and which country dares to object? >> Well, then it's China's duty to... to block it. America blocking the Strait of Malacca is to draw China in. And I believe Donald Trump will have to negotiate with Xi Jinping: "Tell Iran to stop closing the Strait of Hormuz." >> Oh. >> Is that possible? >> This is too extreme, isn't it? >> Oh, let's see. Because I told you, today both sides are at a stalemate, Khun Thani. >> Simply put, neither side wants to be a pawn for the other. >> Yes. >> Uh-huh. >> When they can't talk, they have to clash like this. Who would have thought that Germany would dare >> to invade Poland with a lightning war in 3 days, right? At the start of World War II. >> Uh, no one. >> It's similar to saying Hitler wasn't ready because the economy was bad. >> Hitler didn't dare. >> Yes, but Hitler surprised them. This unpreparedness is what I'm telling you. The reason they are going to fight, Khun Thani, is if their pockets are full, they want to fight. Like, you are rich, I am rich. >> They bump into each other, apologize. [Laughter] >> But if you, Khun Thani, are about to be sued by the bank, your car is about to be repossessed, and I just brush past you slightly, you'll say, "Hey, why are you looking at me?" [Laughter] >> Correct? >> The mood is not the same. >> Yes. >> The mood is not the same. >> Yes. >> Try these two poles, if they are both rich. Why would they shoot missiles at each other? >> Yes. >> Right? >> Uh-huh. >> The unpreparedness to fight. If they look at the targets for war, and they can win, they can balance each other. For example, if America defeats China, can it really defeat China? I still don't see a way for America to defeat China. >> Let's put it this way, Khun Thani. Why did Japan have to invade China in World War II, even though China at that time was already fighting Mao and Chiang? >> They were going to collapse on their own, they were already struggling. >> No, because they made a wrong decision. >> Really? >> Correct. Why did Germany have to invade Russia and die at the gates of Moscow? >> This was definitely wrong. A severe strategic mistake. >> That's it. Khun Thani, you have to understand, when you are under pressure from many things, you can make wrong decisions. There are many things in the world that you make wrong decisions about and fail. This time, I see it as a forced battle. It's forced by the economy, Khun Thani. America itself has a national debt of $40 trillion. They have to borrow another $1 trillion every 3 months. They can't afford it. Their superpower status is diminishing. The G7 today, compared to BRICS and SCO, is not superior. If you talk about the production power of consumer goods, the US has none. There are many things. The petrodollar is now losing its influence. And without the petrodollar, what importance will the dollar have? Khun Thani. And the bonds, what will happen? Who will buy them? And how will you withdraw the bonds? It's a forced situation in many ways, Khun Thani. It's... it's why I say America today cannot stop being a sole superpower. If they let another pole emerge, they will only die. Khun Thani, I think Trump himself wouldn't want to do this. Who wants to start a war? I ask. But don't forget, Trump won the election because people supported him, Khun Thani. And people don't support for free. I don't believe it. There must be mutual benefit, right? >> Yes, so it's seen that Donald Trump made a wrong decision by provoking Iran, and another wrong decision by not backing down. It will escalate into a large war. General Rangsi, do you think Donald Trump made a wrong decision? If he keeps provoking and doesn't back down, will he be considered weak if he backs down? >> In my life, Khun Thani, I have seen, I have experienced people in power. When they make a wrong decision the first time, they will continue to make wrong decisions. >> I've observed that people who are about to collapse. >> Uh-huh. >> Once they make a wrong decision, they will continue to make wrong decisions until they collapse. >> Oh, yes. >> But if a person makes the right decision, they will continue to make the right decisions. >> Yes. >> Under pressure. >> Uh-huh, true. >> There are... there are many prime ministers of Thailand. >> Things you shouldn't do, but you do. >> Yes. >> Uh, that's all there is. >> Uh, the world is really like that. It's wrong, and it stays wrong, never right. >> I've met many people in power, Khun Thani. >> Yes. >> Especially those with high egos and toxic entourages, they collapse quickly. >> True. Incomplete information leads to wrong decisions. Because the information always says they will win, win, win. They never win. >> No, and when you get wrong information, good people will gradually retreat one by one, and you will be left alone very quickly. Those surrounding you will be gone. >> Uh, now surrounded by mediocre people. >> And they build walls. >> And they build walls. >> True. Goodness cannot enter. >> I've seen it many, many times, Khun Thani. >> Ha-ha. >> If you are a wise leader, you must allow everyone to meet you. >> Yes, yes. >> And you must dare to scold them for what they say quickly. But by allowing everyone to meet you, you get a lot of information. [Cough] But the more you close yourself off, and only listen to one person, you're doomed. You're doomed. >> Finally, I would like to ask General Rangsi to summarize the Iran issue at the end of the clip. >> Yes. >> Since we discussed at the beginning of the clip that Iran will face many crises in the coming weeks and months. Can you predict how the situation will end as a result of these attacks? >> Let me put it this way: from now on, let's see if the Strait of Bab al-Mandeb is actually closed. >> Yes. >> If it is closed, Khun Thani, it will be a disaster. >> Uh-huh. >> Use this word. >> Uh-huh. Disaster means >> Disaster for the economy. >> Disaster for the economy. Disaster for the economy and disaster for the war. The war will >> The war will be more intense. >> It will escalate further. >> It will be an all-out war, and other countries will join the US because Europe is also affected. >> Uh, the war will be intense, and there will be a breakdown. Let's just watch this short period: whether the Strait of Bab al-Mandeb will actually be closed. >> Yes. If it's not closed, it won't be severe, right? >> Correct. But if the US continues to attack Iran's mainland, and Iran does nothing, I believe Iran will be finished. >> Oh, they won't be able to do anything. And >> It will be the end, and they will negotiate a ceasefire. >> Correct. >> Uh, that would be the best outcome, I think. Not severe. And the chance of... it depends on whether Iran, Russia, and China agree. >> That's the point. They might retreat because >> Because if Iran agrees to that, it means America will regain influence in the region immediately. >> Yes. >> Uh, it's like the 14-point agreement that the US didn't accept, that they tore up. This is why I told you, let's first see if the Strait of Bab al-Mandeb is closed. I consider this a turning point in the war. >> Uh, if there's a real change, I invite Professor Rangsi to come again. >> Yes. [Laughter] >> And we will analyze further. For now, we won't analyze further because it hasn't been closed yet. >> Yes, correct. >> Okay, today we have covered everything. Thank you very much. See you in the next clip. >> Goodbye. >> Goodbye, Khun Thani. Viewers at home. Goodbye. >> Don't forget to like, share, and subscribe to the B-Sua Thao channel to not miss interesting clips and watch new clips before anyone else.