Transcription
Now everybody, I'm Cantonese Cat. Everybody, Cantonese Cat is back. Finally got my mic and everything. I want to talk about three stocks real quick, as fast as I can, as concise as I can, for their monthly close: Nvidia, Tesla, and Palantir.
I'm going to talk about them in order. I'm going to talk about Tesla first, then Palantir, then Nvidia. There's a reason as to why I do that. But before I glue that, I just want to show you the chart here for Nvidia first to really zoom out. And what you're seeing here is the log chart where the price is in logarithmic scale. And I'm also showing the Bollinger band here. If you show the Bollinger bands in log scale, you can see that it has really gone through multiple cycles, right? Over and over again, where there's a bull cycle followed by a correction, followed by a bull cycle, followed by a correction, and followed by a bull cycle. Right now it's important to look at it in log scale because if you look at it in regular scale, you just see a bunch of blobs; you don't really see the cycles that are being delineated because Nvidia is an exponentially growing asset. You want to really chart this using log scale, and you want to see this going through cycles after cycles after cycles.
And what you're really seeing here is whenever you have a beginning of a cycle where things just get really, really entirely bullish, you have the bullish trend expansion to the upside and to the downside. You can see the downward, um, bullish expense all the way down to the bottom, and upper bullish continues to expand to the upside right during a very, very impulsive bull phase. Now there comes a time when the bull cycle gets tired. And when it's getting tired, when you no longer have that exponential growth and when you no longer have the variability to create the Bollinger band expansion, you end up having a Bollinger band contraction. That's exactly what happened. Whenever a cycle is getting close to getting done, it you start having band contraction, right? Contraction here, contraction here, and contraction here. Now, what you're seeing here is relatively late-cycle behavior that Nvidia has happened over and over again, right? Early cycle, mid-cycle, late cycle, right? Early cycle, mid-cycle, late cycle, right? Early cycle, mid-cycle, late cycle. Not making this up. In general, for stocks that go through cycles that last anywhere from 3 to 5 years, you generally see this kind of behavior, right? And Nvidia is a perfect example.
Now Tesla has also is also very much of a cyclical stock, right? Tesla has gone through two of these really exponential moves on the way up previously. One from 2013 all the way to 2014, 2015. The other one from 2019 all the way to 2021, 2022, right? Those are the two exponential moves that it had made. And during these cycles, these bullish cycles, what happened was you have very impulsive moves on the way up, and you have a bunch of expansion both to the upside and to the downside, right? That happened twice. Whenever you have the end of the bull cycle, you have the topping of the cycle over here, is when the Bollinger band is really truly contracted all the way back, right? When you have the top over here, is when the Bollinger band is really contracted all the way back, right? What do we have here? We have the beginning of an expansion, right? A Bollinger expansion. This move that we had over the last year or so had really pushed price all the way outside the Bollinger band, and it was just simply way outside of the Bollinger band. It had a little bit of a tweezer top here. It had to really get corrected back down. Right when it did that, it did in a very, very, very brutal way; came all the way back down to the 20 moving average. Overshot it twice, forming a tweezer bottom here. This looks extremely bullish. The monthly candle is closed for Tesla. These generally these double-wick bottom kind of like I did over here; they are very, very strong bottoms, kind of like this top over here, a double-wick top over here, double-wick top over here; these are very, very strong bottoms and tops. We have formed a very, very strong bottom right into the 20-month moving average and with a bull expansion here; what do we have? Well, there are two possibilities: one is this bullish expansion could be just a lame-duck bull, um, you know, lame-duck bull market kind of like it did over here where it just kind of plummets all the way back down afterward; it didn't really have that full bunch of expansion. It was like a, "meh," I didn't really want to have that bullish of a cycle; versus this could be the beginning of something great. It could be the beginning of something that is really, really going to be followed by a full bull expansion all the way up.
Now the question is which one is it going to be? Is it an early bull cycle for a very, very impulsive bull cycle, or is it just a really lame-duck bull cycle that's already played out, and then we're going to end up consolidating sideways for even longer, right? I favor us being at the beginning of a more bullish expanded cycle. I think that there's going to be more impulsivity that's going to come for Tesla. I think you're going to have a bullish expansion. I think the price is going to go a lot higher. The reason why I think that is because I do think that right now, what had happened and what had happened here currently based on the fractal that we have from this previous cycle over here, I think we basically have condensed what happened over here from 2016, 18, 19 here for about two years. We condensed this move out here into about six months. What happened here is we had a touch close to the Ichimoku cloud, right? And we have a bearish trend line here that got broken and we back-tested it right back at the bottom of the Ichimoku cloud, right? We have a touch of the Ichimoku cloud over here. Had a bearish trend line here that got broken and a back test of the line of diagonal line over here together with bottom Ichimoku cloud, right. What happened over here that lasted for about two years happened in about six months, and we have even more confirmation over here because we have a tweezer bottom, right? We didn't even have a tweezer bottom over here. This looks like a really, really good bottom. This looks like this has extremely decent demand over here. Looks like the cloud is holding as support right on top of that. Looks like the 20-month moving average is holding. On top of that, you also have the diagonal line over here that's holding. There's just a lot of confluence with a tweezer bottom over here. It makes me think that this is the beginning of a bull cycle.
Now, none of this has to work out. Obviously, again, I'm showing you the possibility of this being a lame-duck bull cycle kind of like it did over here, right? It doesn't always have to expand all the way out and go a lot higher. Even if it does, I don't think it's going to make like 40x like this crazy bull cycle did over here, right? It might just be a little bit more like a lame-duck bull market and make it make up to many. Who knows? 800,000. Who knows, right? Or it could just be this is it, and we end up just plummeting back down over here back to the 100s or 120s or even 60 bucks, you know, whatever some people are thinking. I just favor a more bullish scenario based on what I'm seeing with the confluence that I'm seeing. But obviously these are all speculative, but I'm I have Tesla shares, and I am anticipating because the the support over here from the middle, the 20-month moving average, from the Ichimoku cloud and from the diagonal line, all these things are holding. I favor we go up higher from here, right? And if we're looking at a Bollinger band, if this is the initial phase of expansion, then we're at the early bull cycle here.
Talking about Palantir, where we at? If this is a continuation of a bullish cycle here, which I think we are because you remember what I was showing you in Nvidia, whenever the bull cycle is over, you have we have the Bollinger band contraction, right? Do we have a bull contraction? Let's look at a Bollinger band here. We have an expansion of the bull trend; it's still going all the way down, right? So, this tells me that the bull trend is not over yet. The impulsivity continues to go up, and all the dips are getting bought. It's absolutely insane. A lot of people are saying that this could be a double top. It's always going to be a double top until you make an all-time high, right? It's a double top over here until an all-time high. It's a double top over here. Triple top even. I hear people talking about a triple top over here until you make an all-time high, right? Right now, we're getting close to challenging this previous all-time high over here a couple months ago, right? With with all that said, if I just kind of show you, if you're looking at the log fibs here, Palantir here on the left, very, very similar cycle that I'm seeing with Bitcoin here, 2015, 2017 is shown here on the right. Now, these are fractals. They don't always have to work out, but I just find it quite remarkable in terms of how similar they have been where whenever you have the price getting stuck here between the 0.618, 0.786 and the golden pocket, and when you you end up breaking through that, the sky's the limit, right? Whenever you end up breaking through the golden pocket here between 0.618, 0.68, 0.76, the sky's the limit, right? I mentioned that theory in a previous, previous video. I thought it was a bad idea to sell whenever it rises above the 0.76 because it can make some really crazy all-time high moves, right? Well, guess what? It's doing that, right? It's been doing that for the last year or so. And we got rejected here initially by 1.414. Came back to 1.272, right? Got rejected here at 1.44. Back tested 1.272, right? Holding here. Holding here. Guess what? We had a month that ended up closing above 1.414. Finally, after it got rejected here twice, right here, we got rejected here once with a big giant wick above. And guess what? We closed the month above 1.414, right? Kind of like it did over here. Does it mean that we push through the 1.618 and go up higher to the 2.272 like we did here to like 500, 600 bucks? Not necessarily. Fractals are just fractals. I can't guarantee you whatever is going to happen here is going to happen over here. Vice versa, right? These are just fractals. But the Bollinger band is telling me that it's not over yet because it's being is is still being fully expanded, kind of like it was over here at Bitcoin. Like Bitcoin, it was still fully expanded all all the way down, right? It just kept on getting expanded all the way down, right? And that tells me that it wasn't over because there really wasn't any sign it was going to be, you know, over yet until it is. I don't think the Palantir story ends here. It could end at the 1.618. It's possible. If it pushes through 1.618, then maybe two, right? And then if it pushes to maybe 2.272. Most bull cycles don't end with a parabolic blowoff top. Most bull cycles don't end with this. So that's why I think I don't think Palantir is necessarily going to end up having this big blowoff topping and getting punished for years after that. I can't guarantee you that that's going to happen. I do think that we're hitting 1.618 though. I do think a lot of people are going to end up taking profits at 1.618, and I suspect we will probably push through 1.618 based on the momentum that we're having right now.
The other thing I want to show you is I think Palantir is in mid-cycle, right? Because Palantir continues to have bullish expansion. It's still expanding. Tesla just started having a little bit of expansion. Palantir is having full-blown expansion, right? But no sign of contraction. So I think Tesla's early cycle; speculation only. I think Tesla's early cycle; Palantir is mid-cycle because you don't really know how high this thing is going to go; is mid-cycle, right? And if you're talking about mid-cycle, in addition to um to the Bollinger band, I also show you the Ichimoku cloud here on the monthly; if it keeps bouncing off the tenkan and the blue line up here, usually prices have a lot higher to go. You see how the Bitcoin bull cycle in 2015, 2017 just kept bouncing off of the blue line, the tenkan, all the way up here on the monthly until things broke down underneath, back test. It failed to hold. That's when it ended up breaking down right here. It just kept on pushing and touching the blue line up here. It looks like it wants to keep going up higher through steps, right? Kind of like how it went over here through steps. It looks like it has more room to go here for for um Palantir. So, I don't think the bull talk of Palantir is over yet. How high does it go? Anybody's guess, right? 1.618, 618, 157 bucks to 340 bucks, or 2.272, 593, right? I don't think it's going to go higher than that. I think that if if it ever gets to 2.272, man, I'm like I'm out right here. If it gets to 1.618, by 618, I think a lot of people are going to be out too, but we'll see. I mean, so far fractals work out really, really well. As far as this fractal about really like about like crazy about like a year or so ago, you know, so I I don't have much else to say about Palantir. I think it's mid-cycle.
Nvidia is going to be late cycle. You know why? Because you already have the Bollinger band contraction, right? The Bollinger band has already expanded fully, and it got tired, and you have the contraction here. The question is whether or not we end up breaking down underneath the 20-month moving average and go down a lot lower to the 40s, 50s, or whatever, right? It did that before. It did that before, with the exception that currently the 20-month moving average is holding. So, this could be late cycle, but we might have a mini bear cycle over here that has already played out because the 20-month moving average is holding. It did not hold over here. It did not hold over here, right? And whenever you have a 20-month moving average holding, it does bring out a possibility for things to potentially go up higher from there. Kind of like it did over here. 20 held, right? It went up a lot higher. I can't guarantee you that this is the end of that bearishness for about 6 months. I can't guarantee you that it's not it's not going to break down underneath the 20-minute moving average, but I think there's a possibility where it came back and touched the 20 because it hasn't really back-tested the 20 moving average here for about 2 years. It touched it; it's holding. There is a possibility for it to rejuvenate and go up higher from here, right? If it holds the 20, then great, then up we go. If it doesn't, then down we go. And it could go down a lot lower. Currently it looks like it wants to hold, right? Same thing; you look at the Ichimoku. If you pull up the uh the tenkan and the kijun over here, the blue and the red line over here, you can see whenever it breaks down underneath the red line, then it's game over, right? Broke down underneath the red line, game over. Broke down underneath the red line, game over. We did not break down underneath the red line. We held the black, the red line over here perfectly at the kijun. So, that's another reason why I think, hey, maybe we have some further bullish continuation here. Who knows, right? Nvidia is being extremely tricky right now. Nvidia looks like it might be finding some pretty strong support here, both from the kijun here on the monthly as well as the 20 moving average. And nobody really knows which way exactly it's going to go. But because it's holding support, I actually favor a bullish continuation from here on out.
Do I think that Nvidia is going to be as bullish as Tesla? No, I do not. Why is that? If you do an Nvidia over Tesla chart and if you do a weekly chart over here, if you do the Ichimoku cloud over here, you can see how this spread of Nvidia over Tesla has broken down underneath the Ichimoku; it's had a bearish back test against the Ichimoku. It looks like Nvidia is probably not going to outperform Tesla. Looks like Tesla is going to probably end up outperforming Nvidia because this spread chart, Nvidia over Tesla, has been making lower highs and lower lows, right? So, this favors Nvidia not doing as well as Tesla moving forward. Now, if you're looking at Nvidia over Palantir, forget about it. Like, it's a downtrend, non-stop downtrend. If you're looking at the RSI, you're looking for some bullish divergence, maybe a little bit of deceleration here. Maybe Nvidia is going to end up picking up some steam over here against Palantir. But forget about it; this is a falling knife, right? This is an extremely crazy falling knife. Look at the monthly. Look at how Nvidia has underperformed Palantir for the entire year, right? Forget about it. It's a falling knife, right? So, as far as I'm concerned, um, it it doesn't really make a whole lot of sense for me to want to rotate from Palantir to Nvidia or rotate from Tesla to Nvidia. It that doesn't really make sense to me.
Now, the question comes is when you want to try to compare Palantir versus Nvidia. Sorry, I meant Palantir versus Tesla. The answer to your question is Palantir is extremely, extremely bullish against Tesla, and Palantir wants looks like it just wants to keep going up a lot higher and outperform Tesla a lot more, with the exception of one thing: It is way outside the tenkan. It probably will end up coming back down, touch the tenkan, and we might be a little bit overextended here on a crazy parabolic move up on this Palantir over Tesla chart. I think this is the reason why I would not add to Palantir at this point. I would add to Tesla because I think this Palantir and Tesla chart is just way overextended. It's not sustainable. So anyway, kept this video to 17 minutes, made it a short one. I just want to come and talk about these stocks here. Hope you find this content valuable, guys. Take care everyone. Bye.