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Running backs and top offenses crushing fantasy almost every season. And the great news that we have for you is we know who those offenses will be. The math here is striking.
I have looked over the past 22 seasons and I have tracked out the running back one finish for every top five offense verse every bottom five scoring offense in those years. And here we can see that if you're in a top five offense as the starting running back, you will have an 80% chance of finishing as a top 24 RB. If you in a bottom five offense, you're only going to be at 43%.
Now, if we're looking at your ability to finish as a top 12 running back in fantasy, you'll have a 52% chance of doing so if you're in one of the league's best offenses, and you will only have a 17% chance of doing so if you were in the bottom five.
Now, where things get crazy is if you want to finish as an elite running back in fantasy, this is going to be a top five RB finish, the running backs from those top offenses have a 28% chance of doing so, and the running backs from bottom five offenses only have a 5% chance.
Now, you may ask, "Well, Mason, how do we know which offenses are going to be the best and worst in the NFL?" And that's very simple. Sports books have already put out the overunders and the spreads of every single NFL game. From those data points, we are able to calculate the implied team total and get the projected score for every single offense every single week and average them all out.
Last season, those projections told us that the Buffalo Bills were supposed to be the best offense in the NFL. And if you drafted James Cook, he finished as the RB6. The Baltimore Ravens. And obviously Lamar got injured. Dererick Henry was fine, but he wasn't a great pick. The San Francisco 49ers, Christian McCaffrey finished as the running back, one overall. The Los Angeles Rams, Kairen Williams finished as a top 12 RB. The Kansas City Chiefs, obviously, rest in peace Isaiah Pacheco. And then Jir Gibbs, who finished as that top three back.
Now, what I want to go through will be what offenses are supposed to be the top five to six offenses in the league this year and should we be targeting their starting running back in our fantasy drafts.
Now, let's start it off with the Los Angeles Rams. Not only are the Rams projected out to be the best offense in the league, but it's by a decent margin as well. They currently project to score 26.7 points per game. The number two offense is at 26.1. The number three 26.1. number 426, number 526. So, the Rams have a clear leg up in comparison to all the other teams in the NFL right now with sportsbook projections. And it's not like Kairen Williams is a round one fantasy pick. I mean, we can go over to the consensus ADP sheet on fogg fantasy.com and you can see these Rams prices, at least for the starter, seems pretty reasonable. Kairen Williams currently has an average ADP a pick 32. That's exactly where he's ranked in the expert average rankings on flockfantasy.com.
Now, of course, his price point does depend on the format that you're drafting in. In CBS leagues, he's going at the beginning of the third. In ESPN leagues, he's going at the 34 turn. Everywhere else, he's pretty much a third round pick.
Now, for me, if we look at this Kairen profile, I understand why some people would be concerned because the usage hasn't trended in the right direction, right? We can go back and look at where he was in 2023 and 2024 where he had over 80% of the snaps played for the Los Angeles Rams both seasons. In the 2024 season, he had 88% of the Rams snaps. Really being the number one bellcow running back in the NFL when it came to usage. And that did dip down in 2025. In 2025, he only played 70% of the snaps, which again significantly lower than what we had in 2024 and 2023. And the reason for this was the emergence of Blake Cororm, especially at the end of last season, Blake Cororm really did come on strong with his usage. Right? If we look at weeks 10 through 18 for Cororum, you can see that he had 40%, 31%, 34%, 29%, 33%, a 46, 29, 25, 35. So Blake Cororm definitely began to get a little bit more used in the back half of the year, but I still want to compare the Kairen Williams 70% snap rate to some other elite running backs in fantasy, right? Who's another Bellcow running back? Oh, Bejian Robinson. And where was Bejian Robinson at last year? 79%. Who's another elite Bellcow running back? Jir Gibbs. Where was Gibbs at last season? 68%. So Kirn's snapshare is still one of the best marks in the NFL. The Rams still project to be one of the best offenses in the league.
How I would be using this data is I would probably target Kairen Williams in round three. If I started my draft off wide receiver, wide receiver, maybe if you're playing in like a two wide receiver, one flex format, you take Jamar Chase in round one, then you go ahead listen to our draft sheets because in that kind of format, we'll probably be telling you to take Bowowers in round two. I think Kyron Williams could be a quality round three pick if you need a running back.
Now, on the opposite end of the spectrum, maybe you started your draft off with Christian McAffrey and then Derk Henry. I don't know if you want to be going round three Kron Williams in that instance. Maybe you'll be a little bit better off grabbing a tight end in round three like Trey McBride or mixing in a wide receiver like Malik Neighbors or Rasheed Rice. But of course, if you need help with any of your roster balancing, that's exactly what we have the flockfantasy.com draft sheets as well as live draft assistants for. They are customized to your exact league settings, the exact draft platform that you're on, so you can scoop these massive, massive ADP values depending on where you're drafting. And the flockfantasy.com season pass is still only 34 bucks right now. If you sign up with code flock, you are also going to be getting free questions that you can ask me in the live streams. And I'm going to be live streaming every single night until Christmas answering your fantasy football questions.
Now, let's move over to some more expensive running backs, right? Let's talk about James Cook. And I don't want to sit here and say like, "Oh, the Buffalo Bills project to be the second best offense in the league, so you should go through and you should draft James Cook because what's he cost?" He's the running back five in fantasy drafts at the moment. He has an average ADP of pick 11. Some drafts he goes higher, some he goes lower. Like in sleeper drafts, it looks like he is a mid round one pick. and ESPN leagues there. You could get them in the second round, but the majority of platforms, you'd have to either take them at the very end of round one or the very beginning of round two. So, fantasy drafters understand at this point that the Buffalo Bills very good offense. We talked about their offensive line previously. James Cook last season was the running back six in points per game. He actually had a careerhigh with his carries per game, his rushing yards per game. the receiving usage took a slight tick down in comparison to where he was early in his NFL career, but he still was a league winner even though the receiving usage dipped down and he had touchdown regression hit him from 2024 to 2025. And that's priced into fantasy drafts. Again, this video is not going to be reinventing the wheel telling, "Yo, James Cook, somebody got a draft at the end of round one." I do think he's appropriately priced, though, and it's not like I'm avoiding him in drafts, mainly because of this data.
Now, let's go over and let's look at Jamir Gibbs. And same thing here. The Detroit Lions project to be either the second or third best offense in the league dependent the day that you look at this data. And really this is the only reason why I am going ahead and drafting Jir Gibbs over Robinson at the 101 right now. Again, Jir Gibbs, Bean both have stellar profiles, both play every single game, have no injury history. Both running backs were both top three running backs in points per game this past season. Both of them lose competition from their respective backfields in the form of Tyler Algier as well as Isaiah Pacheco. So I mean really with this data the only thing you can do with Gibbs is use it as a tiebreak between him and Bejian Robinson but obviously not reinventing the wheel to tell you oh target Jir Gibbs in your fantasy draft.
Now our next player we need to discuss is going to be for the Baltimore Ravens as the Ravens project score a ton of points this year and that is going to be Derrick Henry. Now, what I'm concerned with, a multitude of things. One, Derrick Henry turns 33 in January. Two, the coaching staff is different. Three, their offensive line actually gets a little bit worse year-over-year. And four, with Derrick Henry, we can go ahead and throw him in the player comparison tool on flockfantasy.com. And what I want to do with Derrick Henry is I want to look at what happened through the first 16 weeks this past season because obviously week 17 he goes absolutely nuclear, but that was a game in which you had the starting quarterback for the Green Bay Packers out and you had Lamar Jackson out. It was the Tyler Huntley and Malik Willis Bowl. So I don't really know how predictive that is of fantasy football success into the future for Henry. And if we remove that singular week, Dererick Henry averaged 14.8 fantasy points per game and was the running back 16.
And if we go through and if we look at where Dererick Henry is currently getting drafted, Derrick Henry depended on the platform looks to be in my opinion either a reach or appropriately valued. Like right now the flockfantasy.com average consensus rankings have him at pick 21. In sleeper drafts, he goes at the two three turn. In your underdog drafts and your CBS drafts, he's more of a middle of the round two pick. But most platforms, you'd be looking to take him in the middle of round two to the end of the second round.
Now, where I have a problem with Henry is if anybody considers taking him ahead of a running back such as Amari and Hampton where I think that you are getting the upside swing with the Hampton profile versus Derrick Henry on the slide. Now, Henry of course is one of those players that is so unique with how he scores fantasy points because we know it's not going to come through the air whatsoever. So, if you are using my draft sheets, you will see that there is a massive difference in how I am ranking Derk Henry in a nonPPR format as opposed to a full PPR league. In a nonPPR format, I have Derrick Henry as a mid to early round one pick because duh. But in a full PPR format, I would be looking to target Derrick Henry at the end of round two if I started my draft off with Jamar Chase, Puka Nua, or Jackson Smith and Chigba with a 103, 104, or 105.
Now, moving over to the Cincinnati Bengals. I like seeing the Bengals on this list as a projected out top five offense because as of right now, the Bengals offensive line does project to be in the lower half of the NFL. So, seeing sports books say it doesn't matter. Look at the weapons on the team. Look at the quarterback that they have. It does give me confidence in drafting Chase Brown. So, the Ravens, the Bengals have the same exact points projection for this next year.
For me, I would view Chase Brown and see what he did in the second half of the year once Joe Burrow actually did come back to the Bengals. And I think that is extremely telling of what we should expect this next season because early in the year, obviously, it was a disaster for Brown where he looked like he was going to be one of the biggest bust in the league, but that was just because they had garbage quarterback play with Jake Browning. And if we use the player comparison tool on flockfantasy.com and look at the eight games that Chase Brown played with Burrow, he averaged 19.4 fantasy points per game. In comparison to the games with no Burrow, he only averaged 14.1. And it was the difference between the running back three finish and the running back 18. So I am very comfortable drafting Chase Brown in the second round. He's been one of my go-to targets.
If we're looking at the cost across platforms, Chase Brown right now with his flockfantasy.com average ranking is currently sitting at 14. And your sleeper drafts, he goes at the end of the second. In your ESPN drafts, he goes at the end of the second. CBS, he's up there as a late round one pick, early round two pick. But the perfect spot to take Chase Brown, very similar to Derrick Henry, is if you start your draft off with Jamar Chase, with Puganua, with Jackson Smith and Jigba, because it looks like he's a proven receiver in the prime of his career with a production track record, no additional competition, and the Bengals offense projects to be very strong.
Now, moving over to the Dallas Cowboys, I feel like we have to include them because the raw points projection between the Cowboys and the Bills from 2 to six is actually closer than the Bills to the Rams from 1 to2. So, the Cowboys could very easily finish in the top five, which is extremely relevant and interesting when it comes to Javvante Williams.
Now, Javvante currently is a round four pick in underdog drafts as well as sleeper drafts. Now, in your ESPN league, in your Yahoo League there, you may have to take him in the middle of the third round. Where I personally would be interested in drafting Javvante Williams, because there's no real competition in this backfield, and obviously the Dallas Cowboys project be a really good offense, is with builds in which I start with at least one wide receiver through the first two rounds. So, I don't know if I would want to target Javvante Williams in round three. If I started my draft off say with a round one Jonathan Taylor pick a round two Chase Brown selection they're in the third I think you're probably better off going through and drafting that wide receiver like Rashid Rice rather than taking Javvante. However, say you start your draft off from the 10 spot, right? You started off with Justin Jefferson in the first. In the second round you grab Amari and Hampton there. If you're fine with it, I could see taking Javvante Williams at the 3-4 turn being a very reasonable pick because again, this is a really good Dallas Cowboys offense where Javvante Williams last season um did get used as a receiver. He's been used as a receiver every year of his NFL career, averaging at least three targets per game, and he did finish as the top 12 running back in points per game last season.
But I think that's all I got for you. I really appreciate you and hope I was able to help you out here. And of course, if you want to take custom draft sheets or a real-time draft assistant to your fantasy draft this year to make sure you win, the season pass on flockfantasy.com is still only $34 bucks for the time being. That's not $34 a month. That's $34 for the entire season. And if you use code flock when you sign up, you're going to be getting free start sit and trade questions that you're able to ask me in the live stream during the season. Link to that is in the description as well as the comment section. But much love. I really appreciate you and I really hope I get to see you out in the live stream later.