Transcription
Hello, I hope you are doing well. Today is October 10th, uh, 2025, it is 6:30 AM. I had said that I would probably not do a market review, uh, this week, other market reviews. The last one, I think it must date back to Tuesday. Now, I'm just going to do a small market update because what I see here is quite interesting and notably, there are certain small weak signals that lead me to think that the bias I gave you at the beginning of the week is probably, I repeat, probably being realized. So what changes a little bit compared to what I told you at the beginning of the week, it's just on the dollar's dynamic, in fact, or we'll see it on a clean chart and I'll switch to daily, I'll even switch to 4-hour where we had here the formation of a high resistance liquidity run, which was completely eaten up but which leaves behind a large inefficiency that we will also find on the futures markets here. For now, it's not a dynamic, it's not a flow here that invalidates the dollar's bearish dynamic yet. And we see that currently the dollar, what is it doing? It is working on a bearish fair value gap, it is here and the dollar seems to be reacting to the contact of this bearish fair value gap. If I look at what's happening on the hourly, we see that here we have a beginning of a reaction. So that's already a first thing because well, obviously it has to break free from this fair value gap which, this one on the hourly is bullish. What I find, what strikes me a little bit, is the dynamic we can have if we compare the dollar with the three main American indices. So the Dow Jones, the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq. It's that we see that despite everything, we have a dollar that makes higher lows and higher highs on this time frame, and that is concomitant with a series of higher lows and higher highs on the Nasdaq as well as on the S&P 500, even if we see that the momentum is less strong. And on the other hand, we can observe an SMT divergence here on the Dow Jones. So, this is a first signal that could indicate to us that the Dow Jones is paving the way and that the indices are perhaps embarking on a bearish trend. But we could also interpret this dynamic, knowing that it is a dynamic of consolidation. And I recall that the context of SMT divergences within a consolidation, we will rather try to look for this famous Six Sisters pattern. And in this case, what we can observe is that the little sister who refuses to go towards the trend engaged by the Dow Jones and the S&P 500, you see that the S&P 500 here, it made a lower low, there was a liquidity grab. The Dow Jones made a lower low, here there was a liquidity grab. On the other hand, the S&P 500, it refused to make a lower low. So, in my opinion, this is rather a signal that the American indices are probably committing to making a higher high and that this movement here of the dollar is a movement of indecision. Obviously, this requires confirmation, but this is what we could call the trader's intuition. After that, let's calm down because my intuition, it deceives me regularly and that's part of the trading game. I'll go back again to what I said at the beginning of the week, which is that for me this movement of the dollar here is a movement of manipulation and that, I don't know if it will go to make lower lows, but in any case, it has done important work here and now I'm going to put the indicator back on and notably it has come to re-work the fair value gap I was talking about earlier. So we had here the constitution of a breaker. So assuming it reacts here, it will obviously have to break free from this breaker. We are not there yet, but there are other weak signals that indicate to me that there is probably still some juice to go a little higher. And so I'm going to look more towards the most volatile assets, in this case Bitcoin. And this time I'm going to switch to 5 minutes. And what we can see is that following this grab of the previous daily lows, so the one from October 7th, we had here the formation of the famous pattern that I personally like to trade, it's the YPR. What do we do with YPR? We wait for a major liquidity grab, then a displacement, and in this case, the displacement we can expect, we have several, we have obviously the small units, but we also have here, we see an FVG on the hourly. And what we can see is that here, Bitcoin is currently consolidating in this zone. It's a bit clearer, I find, on Solana. There, we see it well, liquidity grab, the previous daily low was here. And what do we have next? We have a market structure shift and the formation of a fair value gap on the hourly that the price is retesting. We have a reaction and following this reaction, we have, and we are currently right in the middle of it, the formation of a breaker on the hourly. And here, the price is currently retesting this price zone. So what might not argue in favor of a bounce is simply that it's Friday and that Friday, the price action is often quite tricky. But in my opinion, if there is a trap, I think it could be a bearish trap that could invite all those who have positioned themselves here to become sellers. If I look at Solana, and this is the case for several assets, by the way, we see here we have two previous daily highs that are really very close. After that, let's be careful about points of interest. I made a video about that. Points of interest can remain active for a very long time. But we still have several here on Solana. We have two here in this zone. There. They are really very clear here. And we also have two here. There. Well, that could create a vacuum, let's say. Now, if I look at the CME, we see that here on 5 minutes, we are on a trend that is rather bearish, but we also find this famous market structure shift with a daily opening gap that has been re-worked. We see that the price has come to revisit it and we observe this consolidation zone. So here my question is, isn't the market doing a little descaling of all these assets? In this case, a little cleaning of the gums here, a liquidity grab, and then to go back to higher highs. It's a bit less clear on gold. We see that we have here a displacement that is quite frank. But here's what I observed on the euro-dollar, and it's true that the euro-dollar is still an indicator, let's say, necessarily the trader that I tend to look at because it can partly explain the movements we will have on the dollar, but it can also serve as a bit of a crystal ball if the dynamic on the dollar is not very clear, to look at the euro-dollar because it represents 58% of the weight of this index, the DXY. So from the moment we can observe a market structure shift on the euro-dollar, we can start, assuming this negative correlation, but that's most of the time the case, to look for a bearish trend on the dollar. So, is it for today? I don't know. Is it for next week? I don't know either. But what happened, and even though I'm starting to see people on social media who are worried, who are starting to call the top, we still have a lot of buy the dip. So, that's what could argue in favor of a perhaps larger pullback that could potentially cause damage, but for now, I repeat, for now, and that might change in a few hours, I'm sticking with the bias I announced at the beginning of the week. So next, well, obviously, we will have to watch this dynamic here on the dollar, the reaction to the contact of this bearish, of this succession of bullish inefficiencies. But well, there is still this focal point here which is, for me, calling for a revisit. There. Well, I won't go any further on this market review, but I think the low point here that we had on Bitcoin, on the most capitalized assets, let's say, for now, I consider that it constituted good entry points, while of course not forgetting that we are in a phase that statistically correlates with a rise. I won't go back over it. I remind you that I have a bot, but now it's a bit late, but it will be for the next cycle that switches to buy on these lunar phases and sells on the new moons. You will find it on Traders. It switched to buy at a price that I hope will prove to be interesting. For now, it seems to be the case. There, I'll stop here, and then we'll meet next week to take stock of all this. If I see, if I notice a major movement today that could call for an interpretation on a weekly scale that is significant, then perhaps I will do another market review this weekend. But otherwise, we'll meet next week. Alright, have a good weekend. M.