Transcription
Hello to all, I hope you are doing well. We are meeting for the briefing of Thursday, November 13th, it is 9 AM. Today, we will talk about economic news, the long-short ratio, funding, open interest, and liquidations. We will look at what the whales are doing, finishing with a technical analysis of Bitcoin. But before that, we will look at what happened yesterday. We had a dump on Bitcoin, as expected, and then we had a rebound. We also had the end of the shutdown in the United States. This is logically rather bullish news, given that we will have quite a bit of volatility expected since many news items were not released due to this shutdown because offices were closed, etc. And so now they risk coming out little by little, almost all at once. But this was not priced into the consensus for the next FOMC meeting. So, we need to pay attention to this because we will really have movements linked to this news since nothing has been priced in for about a month and a half. We had some of the most important news released, but many were not, and therefore, we risk having a consensus that moves a bit in all directions. So, pay attention to that. We risk having quite a bit of volatility in the markets to come. So, we simply risk coming to take out stops everywhere, in all directions. And currently, we have taken out stops at the bearish level. So, this is rather interesting because currently, the structure is bullish. We have validated a trend change in H1, if I'm not mistaken. So, we have currently turned bullish. We are currently on this. We have just broken the H1 FVG that we had in this zone, and logically, we could go a bit higher. So, technically in H4, it is bullish. We have whales who are not buying, who are a bit reluctant. Micro-whales are buying, retail is selling, so you are also buying back. You will see that it is quite interesting in terms of data for a rebound very soon. So, logically, we could have had a short-term bottom, at least in this zone. We could be in an accumulation phase where we are looking for the zones I have been talking about for a while. And the zone I have been talking about for a while was the 108,500 zone. So, we could very well go and look for this zone. But we will look at the data to see if it coincides with the plan.
Regarding economic news today, we will have American inflation at 2:30 PM. Expect movement. We will also have other news, in my opinion, that will arrive, and in my opinion, they will arrive as a surprise because with the shutdown, we still have news that will arrive, but we don't know exactly when.
Regarding cryptoBubble, what we see is that we have green almost everywhere on the altcoins. We have altcoins performing very, very well, notably Tel which is up 119%, AB which is up 32%, and then we are simply in a range except for Aero where we are completely bearish, down 15%. So, otherwise, we are in ranges. ZEC is performing quite well. Same thing. We have a huge rebound following the rebound on Bitcoin. So, same thing, in my opinion, there will be scalps to attempt on this, whether in H4 or elsewhere with FVG zones.
Regarding funding and open interest, what we see is that when we zoom in a bit, we see that it is essentially longs that have been opened, which is not necessarily completely bullish. When we see an increase in open interest like this with an increase in funding on a Bitcoin pump, logically it is longs that have been opened. So, this is not necessarily ideal. So, it is not necessarily what we are looking for.
Next, what we see here, same thing, we had an increase in open interest here with an increase in funding, which means that here it was longs that had been opened. Potentially, they were closed when we made this liquidity grab just here. But they are not completely closed, given that we did not make a real liquidity grab. It would have been much more interesting to make a real wick below to simply close all the longs that had been opened. And currently, all those who had their stop here are still in it, and that is a bit problematic.
If we look just here, we see that it was essentially shorts that had been opened, given that we had an increase in open interest with a majority decrease in funding. So, this is rather dangerous, given that here many shorts have been opened, and therefore, logically, we have liquidations to seek just above, around $105,170.
Regarding liquidations, if we look, we clearly see that we have liquidity clusters to seek up to $105,531. So, that's what I was telling you, we have quite a few people to liquidate. And below, there is not much left. We see that we have a liquidity cluster around $102,370, but then we could rebound to go and take the next liquidities. And if I look, for example, over 3 days, the liquidities are really to the north. If I look over a week, it's the same thing, they are to the north. We have really liquidated almost everything that was available to take on the liquidities. But in a week, we still see that we have liquidities around $99,000. So, I was mistaken about the time scale. On a weekly time scale, we clearly see that there are still many people to seek up to $98,500. So, we may not be at a medium-term bottom, we may be at a short-term bottom on which we are going back to seek liquidities. And we need to pay attention to this because on H4 time scale and so on, we remain bearish, and we need to pay very close attention to this.
Regarding what the whales are doing. So, the whales are in total indecision, we see it clearly, there are buys, there are sells, etc. So, we are not seeing precursor movements for upcoming movements either. We clearly see that it is indecisive, we have buys, sells, etc. It is not really what will indicate to us where we could go.
Regarding micro-whales, we see that they are completely buying back. We have even validated, so we could say that we have almost validated a trend change for micro-whales. We are currently on a divergence between the price and what the micro-whales are doing. But the price is currently being sold off by retail. So, there is not necessarily FOMO at the moment. So, logically, there is not necessarily strong buying pressure. Whales will really need to get involved for us to go much higher.
So, technically in H4, we remain bearish. We have validated this trend change just here. So, if we look, we have our trend change here. Then we have a BOS here. And so, logically, as long as we do not validate above this zone, which is the zone of $105,292, we remain bearish. This means that this is the last short to attempt. If we close above this zone of $105,292 in H4, logically, we will turn bullish, we will at least seek $108,425, and in my opinion, we could go a bit higher, given that we still have liquidities to take in the $112,000 zone and also at $118,000. This was the zone I had been talking about for a while. So, we will come back to it. In my opinion, if it approaches, it's not time to discuss it yet. This OTE zone, it can Hop, I can remove this. This OTE zone can change and move here. So, same thing, in my opinion, we risk having this zone here being taken. So, here, same thing, we have a daily IFVG that was not fully filled. So, we are on a daily IFVG that goes up to $118,023, and we have a second daily IFVG between $118,616 and $119,156. But as long as we do not break this zone, personally, I will not attempt a long. As long as we do not break $105,289, I will not attempt a long, given that we remain bearish and we can very well have a rejection, as you have seen, given the liquidities we have, we can very well be rejected by this cluster, or rather this OB, just in this zone. Between $10,372 and $104,983, we have an H4 OB, and we see that we have currently been rejected by the 50% of this OB. So, it will really take a violent bullish movement for us to pass this zone. And logically, the strength is rather bearish. So, logically, I would tend to say that we have more chance of dumping than pumping currently in the current configuration. However, if we close at $105,300, then logically, we can go much higher. So, ideally, we would have a close above this zone to then go back and seek an FVG to then be able to go up again, and that would be really interesting. However, if this zone holds, then logically, we will go much lower, potentially seeking $97,500, which is an extreme liquidation zone. So, we are just even $98,500 would be enough for a liquidity grab that we have under this zone for a while. So, this could be interesting to rebound. Yes, around $97,656. But for now, as long as these zones hold, in any case, as long as this zone holds, there is no real need for a long right now, because it would be a fakeout. We really had to attempt the long at the time of the retest. Personally, I attempted a small scalp, a very small scalp, in there. I closed at 1R, and I attempted it in the IFVG. Let me show you because it was quite interesting to see that IFVGs work. Let me switch back to H4 and then to M15. And you will see that it worked quite well. We had this IFVG right here. It had not been fully closed. And in fact, when we zoom in, I'll switch to M5 so you can see, we were on this. And in fact, what I did was simply, I placed myself as soon as we took liquidity and rebounded in this IFVG, I placed myself at 345. So, it was just here with a very, very, very tight stop. So, my stop was just here, and the goal was simply to target an RR21 to make the day. So, I closed just like that, and it was a very quick rebound, but it was very interesting because it's always free money to make these kinds of moves since it's quite obvious to rebound in an H4 IFVG after such a dump, and especially after a liquidity grab. So, it was a simple move, but you shouldn't have held it, otherwise it would have stopped you out. The bottom was clearly not clean. And I said, many people attempted a long right here when we validated this trend change, and I told them to be careful, the bottom is not clean. Clearly, we had not liquidated this zone. Before making the choch, we really needed to take liquidity, and then validate the trend change, and then we could go back up. Which we did here. So, simply, if I zoom out a bit, we switch to M15. So, here, the bottom for me, it is clean. Well, it was just here. And here, the bottom is clean. We clearly see that we have this. So, we simply lateralize, we sweep the liquidities, we lateralize again, we validate a trend change, we liquidate, and then we go back up. And this is a clean bottom because here all those who were here were logically stopped out, most of them at least, because those who enter here logically are retail, etc., if they place their stop in this zone, it means that they clearly expect to be liquidated. So, it's not necessarily a clean bottom. Logically, the stop was much lower. So, yes, and currently we are on a trend change in M15, so we could push a bit higher, but in any case, as long as we are not bullish in H4, I will not personally attempt a long, but it will be tempting if I see a short setup, I would short it. But to have a long setup, we will have to wait for H4, but a short setup in M15 could be interesting to short it, since we essentially remain in a bearish trend, so yes, I hope this video was helpful. If so, I invite you to subscribe, like this video, and comment what you think. Feel free to join the public Discord as well. There will be activity resuming on it soon. So, feel free to join it. The link is in the video description. It will be a great pleasure to welcome you there. I wish you a good day. See you tomorrow, same time. Take care of yourselves. Amen.