Transcription
So, while everybody's talking about oil prices, the risk of stagflation, bad job numbers, they're ignoring one of the biggest investing opportunities of our lifetime, which is being formed right now as we speak.
Now, as always with these things, people can't see the forest from the trees by the time it's too late. At that point, they all pile in and basically get crumbs, cents on the dollar.
Now, on this video, what I'm going to do is I'm going to present to you my thesis. My thesis about how this right now in 2026 is the beginning of a new bull cycle, the likes we haven't seen in many, many years, if not decades. But for us to do that, we first have to go over the hump. The hump is the fear of the current market uncertainty, geopolitics, oil prices, and the whole nine yards.
So right now what we have folks is fear by the market that's being presented in the form of high oil prices. When oil prices go up and unemployment goes up, which is essentially what we've seen over the past few weeks kind of play out on the macro side, on the geopolitical side, what we're looking at with higher oil prices is a risk of inflation. When we are paying more for gas, when you have to pay more to ship goods, to manufacture goods, you need energy, when all of these things require more money to be produced, well, that increases inflation because the cost of goods goes up. At the same time, if we have high unemployment, well, obviously that's not good for the economy as well. But the combination of them is what we call a recession. And a lot of people are fearing that this might lead to this. And because of the fear that high oil prices are going to lead to high inflation and unemployment and a recession and eventually to a stock market collapse, a lot of people are jumping out, bailing out or just sitting on the sideline too afraid to get in on this market. And I think it's a huge mistake because there's a lot of ifs here assumptions here. But let me tell you something. Even if all of this is true and we are going to experience that, it does not matter. And I'll show you by giving you the worst possible outcome, the worst example and how this did matter for people who actually invested and stayed in the market. I'll show you that in a second, but that's not the point of my video.
On this video, I'm actually going to give you a new stock as well. one that I have not talked about on this channel, one that is not on my top stocks list, and one that also represents a lot of what I think is the new wave. But for that, you have to wait till the end of this video. Also, I'll give you my free guide on how to invest panic-free in environments like this in times of uncertainty. And I'll also give you a discount code for my stock MVP platform, but all that is a little bit later. I want you to focus first. Don't click nothing. No smash nothing. Don't buy nothing. Just listen.
Look, right now what we're experiencing is a lot of uncertainty. There is very very few examples in life for more, I guess, unexpected presidents than Donald Trump. You never know what this guy's going to do. He's an agent of chaos. He thrives in chaos. Whether you like it or not does not matter. It is what it is. So, because we have a lot of uncertainty, markets are behaving as if we've never seen this before. As if we've never seen geopolitics. as if we've never seen wars in the Middle East, as if we've never seen crazy presidents, as if we've never had this sort of market. But the truth is, the reality is this is not our first rodeo, folks. But every time this happens, the media loves to give you this sense that this is the worst ever. This time it's different. This is a complete waste of time. Every time this cycle repeats, this is like Groundhog Day. But every time the media keeps playing the same headlines, scaring investors because it gets clicks, it gets tension and drama sells headlines and newspapers. It is what it is. But the fact of the matter is that mainstream media is pretty much a waste of time for the modern long-term investor.
From 1960 until right now, it's been a lot of years, a lot of time has passed. Okay? Only once in 1973, oil prices and inflation actually led all the way to stagflation. So the scary stagflation that everybody talks about since 1960. That is 70 years ago. In 70 years, we've only seen stagflation once in 1973. And yes, it was horrible. It was horrendous. And we got bailed out finally by a guy by the name of Paul Volcker. Not the guy from Fast and Furious, rest in peace. But Paul Volcker actually initiated one of the most extreme interest rate increases we've ever seen, ones that have put the United States into a deeper recession. But by the end of 1982, Paul Volcker actually healed the US economy and it got us out of this of this stagflation environment. Now many many many many headlines since 1960 right now warned you from the risk of stagflation warned you from the risk of recession but stagflation despite the thousands of headlines warning that it's about to come only happened once in 1973. Everything else was 0% occurrence. So we're talking about a very high risk event but extremely low probability. It is very very seldom like in 1973 was the only example that this actually played out in what people are afraid of high oil prices recession unemployment stagflation and yes it was horrible but it only happened once. So number one it's not that common stagflation gets thrown around as if it's kids candy but it's a very very rare occurrence.
Now the second part I want to show you here is this. Okay. Okay. For stagflation to happen because of an increased prices of oil, a few things need to happen and they have to happen all together. All four of these have to take place for higher oil prices because of war to lead to inflation and unemployment and to cause stagflation. Just reminding you stagflation is a combination of high unemployment. Nobody has a job and high inflation everything is expensive. Usually they do not coexist. But in stagflation somehow this atrocity happens. But for that to happen for oil prices to cause stagflation four things need to happen. Number one with an increase of 50 to 100% in oil prices. Now we're talking about not a daily increase, not a week or two weeks or a month of increase. We need a sustained 12 month increase between 50 and 100% in oil prices. Meaning it has to be sustainable. It does not count where a war that lasts for 17 18 days spikes the oil prices by 45%. It's not enough. But the other part is that the underlying macroeconomics have to be bad. Right now, if you look at GDP, we're solid. If you look at the unemployment rate, we're still solid. Yes, we had one data point that was not optimal, but the underlying economy right now is pretty solid. On top of this, we have to have increased rates. None of this matters. And this is the point I'm trying to make here, folks, that one, two, and three does not matter. We can debate all day whether the underlying economy is good or bad. Whether the increase in oil prices is sustainable or not, none of this matters. If the Fed is not going to raise rates, the increase in rates, this is the final push that gets this whole stagflation started. Okay, for this to happen, the Fed has to go into a rate increase cycle, which is literally the opposite of where the Fed is heading right now. Yes, they will pause because of the war in Iran. They're not going to cut rates, but the Fed is in a quantitative easing cycle. Meaning the Fed started cutting rates and we're in a rate cutting cycle. And the new Fed chair, Mr. Worsh, that's supposed to replace Mr. Pal is very much on board with this. So whatever happens with this war, whether it lasts 17 days or 17 months, doesn't matter. The Fed is not going to increase rates. The Fed eventually will continue its cutting cycle. The sooner the war ends, the faster the Fed is going to go back to a cutting cycle. So, this is not happening. This didn't happen yet. And this needs 12 months to pan out. But the market right now is going to price a lot of this in as if it already happened because that's what the markets do. The markets price in the worst case scenario and then they see what happens. It's kind of shoot first, ask questions later. And it's not a good way to invest even though a lot of investors follow headlines and do exactly that.
Now this is what we are doing in the academy. We do not predict, we prepare. We look at different scenarios at different things that can happen and occur and we make a plan for every single one. It's as simple as that. Okay, we are using the Buffett method. And what is the Buffett method? Well, Buffett is famous for one. Well, he's famous for a lot of quotes, but his most famous quotes. Put it in the chat right now. But I bet you the one that gets the most amount of likes, the most amount of comments in the comments right now is, "When everybody's greedy, I am bearish. When I am bearish, that means everybody else is greedy." And I probably butchered that quote, but you get the idea. Buffett always went against the grain. He loaded up on cheap quality companies on cents of the dollar in times of crisis. And at good times, he's in cash. By the way, Buffett right now, well, now longer Buffett cuz he's retiring, but Berkshire Hathaway is in record cash numbers right now. It's not necessarily saying anything about the market. But basically, that's how they operate when everybody's excited when the S&P did 90% in three years. They're going to be in cash waiting for the collapse. Maybe it happens in a year, maybe two years, but that's the way Warren Buffett works and that's the way we work. We have taken this method and a little bit added to it which is the double down DCA method. I'll talk about in a second. But the idea here is if the markets are going to do this cyclical moment, right? The markets are always going to go through a cycle. Hope then euphoria then despair, hope then euphoria then despair etc etc etc. Every few years this cycle is going to repeat itself. And because markets repeat themselves, we know that as long as we buy quality companies, as long as we buy the entire market in a broad market index like the S&P 500, what's going to happen is if we buy right here in the bullseye where the markets are depressed, this is the best time to invest. Even though most investors sell exactly at this point right now, if you go to the uh description of this video, in the description of this video, I'm going to give you a full guide how this system works. The entire panic-free double down system. I'm going to put it as a pin comment and also I'm going to put it in the description so nobody can miss this. It is free. There's no strings attached. Go get it right now. It's going to teach you this entire method, this entire system. It's free. It's yours. It's my gift to you. It's my way of improving your investing strategy. It literally cost $0. Go get it right now. And essentially, you just download it and it's yours.
Now, let's talk about history here for a second. Okay. From 2000 to 2025, we had a lot of bad things that happened, right? In 2000, we had the dotcom crash. In 2008, we had the subprime crash of the real estate, the mortgages, mortgage back securities. And this is essentially the last decade. The S&P went from 1500 to 1500 in 10 years. The last decade is one of the worst times to invest statistically in existence. Very very unlikely, but yes, it happened. It was an anomaly, abnormal, but yes, we have a lost decade. Even though except that it's going to be very hard to find a 10-year period in which the S&P did not make any money. And if you expand this to 20 years, never never the S&P actually did not make money in 20 years. But that's not the point, right? In 2020, we have COVID, right? Obviously, a huge drop. People forget, but in COVID, the market dropped 30% in 60 days. And we had the bare market of 2022. Now, with the exception of the dotcom crash and the subprime crash, which was literally the worst time ever, 10 years of nothing, COVID crash, 60 days, bare market 2022, 10 months. That's pretty much standard because people kind of erh forget that or don't do the research. But the reality is that the average bull market in US stock markets usually lasts four to five years. That's not an anomaly. The average bare market literally the average bare market is 10 months. So, just to put it out of, you know, your mind, yes, we have the lost decade and it did happen in this 10-year period. Yes. But everything else statistically shows us that it is more likely that we're going to be in a bull market at any given point than in a bare market. If you were a roulette table and four out of five were basically red and one out of five was black and you had to bet on one, which would you bet on? Obviously, on the four out of five, right? The same thing here. You know that the market is literally rigged because it's mostly being bullish. 54% of days are green. 75% of years are green. 95% of decades except this one is green. And 100% of decades, sorry, 100% of 20-year periods is green. Okay.
Now, why am I showing you this? If you started investing right here and you invested all the way to 2026, okay, literally the worst time to do it. You got the last decade and the COVID crash and the bare market of 2022. If you were the worst, you just got in here the top the peak before the dotcom crash. Look at what happened. Okay, this was the market in this entire period of time. I know what it looks like, but it's not. It's just the market. Get your head out the gutter. Okay, so we have the last decade right here at 1500. Up and down, up and down. Then we went up to 3,500. We crashed to 2200. This was the COVID mini crash. Then we went up to 4,800. And then we crashed to 3,500 in the 2022 bare market. And right now we're at 6,700. Okay. So even though we had the last decade and the COVID crash and the 2022 bare market, the stock market did 350% in those 25 years. If I'm sitting in cash, I'm getting my salary. I'm getting my paycheck. I'm going to put in the savings account. Right? If you're doing that, well, in those 25 years that you've been doing that, you've been putting money in your savings account. Inflation literally ate 80% of your money. the real purchasing power of your dollar went down by 80% in those 25 years. So if all you did was safe, conservative, and everything you've done is earn money, put in the bank, earn money, put in the bank. In 25 years, you want to retire, congratulations. Your money can now buy 80% less than what it could in 2000. On the other hand, including the last decade, including COVID, including the 2022 bare market, if all you've done is sit in the S&P 500 350%. Which one do you like better? This is why I don't like when people say, "Well, the stock market is dangerous." Yes, it is dangerous, but there's risk in everything. You don't think there's risk in being in cash? I think the risk is just different. The risk of being in cash is that, you know, you're going to lose 80% of your money in 25 years. The risk in the stock market is that if you're stupid and you're going to sell at the bottom instead of dollar cost averaging, I'll explain exactly what it means in a second. Yes, it's a different risk. Here's the psychological risk. Here it's absolute certainty you're going to lose 80% of your money. I'd rather work on myself and my psychology and my emotional fortitude so I can get this instead of knowing for sure I'm going to lose 80% of my money by just sitting in cash. It's different risk, but it's not safe to be in cash for long. That's the whole point. Especially not for the middle class. Milton Friedman once said, you know, the one of the greatest economists of all time, if not the greatest, that the inflation by definition is a hidden tax on the middle class. Rich people don't care about inflation. They have so much money, they're swimming in the money, they don't care about inflation. But people who live paycheck to paycheck, actually inflation hurts them the most.
Now, what if you timing the market? What if you buy at the bottom and then sell at the top? You know, sounds brilliant, but it's very, very hard to do. You have a lot of problems with this. Okay, it's going to be very, very hard to go back into the market. Let's say you did it and now the market spiked and you sold at the bottom. No problem. But the market spike, when do you get back in? You're locked out. It's literally gambling. Historically, it's very, very hard to do that. There's an emotional payment that you have to pay by doing the system. And you're always going to have these reasons to sell. Jumping in and out of the market trying to perfectly time the bottom and the top might work once, might work twice, but over the course of 25 years, the chances are 99.9% you're going to lose your pants. If you try to do that, if you play the other game, it's a whole different story.
Now, what does this other game looks like? Okay, let's say you put DCA stands for dollar cost averaging, meaning you put fixed amounts, a fixed period, $100 every single month means DCA, dollar cost average. Okay, what if you put $100 into the S&P 500 for the past 25 years? Well, you're up 296% today. Okay, dollar cost average brought you a lot close to that 350% that the entire S&P did in those 25 years. Okay, what if you only put $100 as long as the market was not 10% below the 52-week high. Okay, sorry, all-time high. So, let's say that the highest point was 7,000. So, when the market is below 6,300, you don't invest. When the market goes up 6,3001, well, then you start investing again. As long as the market is not 10% below the all-time high, you put $100 every single month. Well, you also did fine. 249%. Not bad, but not as good as dollar cost averaging. What if you double down and every time the market did this 10% below the all-time high, you put in 300 instead of 100 and you've done that for 25 years, your time is going to be 364%. 364%. Much better than this, much better than this. But even if you just clean house and say, "Hey, gamblers versus these guys one, two, and three, they all do average. They've all put in money into the S&P for 25 years. All of them made lots and lots of money. Some of them made more than others, but they've made money. Gamblers, 90% of gamblers lose money in the market every single year. Even though the market goes up non-stop.
Now I think right now, let's talk about the opportunity ahead of us, folks, because there's massive opportunities ahead of us. The biggest opportunity right now in our life right now is artificial intelligence. There's no doubt about it. It's bigger than anything we've probably ever seen. Electricity, internet, you name it. Okay. I always talk to you about picks and shovels. The people who made the money in the gold rush were the people who sell the tents, the dynamite, the jeans, the picks and the shovels. And I've talked to you a lot about energy as a picks and shovels play for AI because energy is a huge bottleneck for AI. We talked about it many times, lots of videos. And I talked about Constellation Energy, VRT, and BE companies that have made a lot of money since we talked about them. But VRT is up 150% since we spoke about it about 6 months ago. It's on my top stocks list in the academy, pne.com/dommash. You can get this as well as another 30 stocks which I think are going to be generational. Okay, but VR made a lot of money. I don't remember how much CAG made. B. Actually, since we added it a couple weeks ago, it's still pretty much flat, but you know, we just added it. But let's talk about the next bottleneck. Okay, we talked about energy and we got that covered. You know what to get on energy. You know how to look at energy. I don't want to kind of beat the drum again. You've all understood that. But there's another bottleneck in AI that's completely misunderstood. Even though somehow it get talks all the time on social media, on everybody's talk about it, but still misunderstood. I'll show you. And I know it sounds paradoxical, but it's actually pretty true. Okay, so think about the Nvidia H100. Okay, this was not that long ago. Four years ago, it came out and it was a revolutionary GPU. Change the game right now. Okay, the size of this thing was 814 square millimeters and it's very very close to the limit of our current machinery that produces these these chips of 8 sorry 858. So this is really pushing the limits of what we can manufacture. This is pretty much the standard of the past four decades. Okay, this means that the solution that Nvidia came up with was Blackwell. Blackwell solved this problem by having twice the transistors on the same real estate, so to speak. Right? I'm not a technical guy and I'm not going to pretend like I understand this fully, but understand enough to kind of make my point. And my point is this. Okay? If shrinking chip size is what we're doing here or essentially loading more on existing chip size, okay, we have a new problem, right? We're going to have obviously more context because these chips are going to be doing more work, more memory obviously. So memory, even though we've seen a huge spike in the past year, is not even close to being done. And I'll explain why. Okay, it's a very very simple explanation. Number one, the Achilles heel of large language models right now is context. You know, try to have a conversation with Gemini and then come back a few days later, see what happens. Okay, context means memory. But that's easily solved. That's not the real problem, right? But what about the next stage? What about agents? What about the next after that? AGI, right? More complexity means you need more context means you need more memory. Okay? Essentially, if you talk about agentic just as the next step, okay, we have 10 times more memory demand right now than we had four years ago. And this exponentiality is only going to get worse. Memory prices, as I said, spiked over the past year. Micron literally said, "Hey, we're not making any more memory for anybody else except data centers." Their stock is up 340% past year. SK Hynix is up 310. Samsung is up 225. This is all in the past 12 months. And yes, these three companies, Micron, SK, and Samsung, hold 90% of the market. There's nobody else. If you want to invest in AI and you don't want to chase hype, you want to invest in the pick and shovels. Well, you got to invest in AI, which means you got to invest in power. But now, we're going to be talking about memory because this is the next phase of the choke point of the bottleneck. Okay, these are the most critical elements, power and memory, and both are far from over. Okay, we're going from L&Ms next step as you seen right now with open claw agents. Then we're going to go to robotics which going to need even more memory, even more context. And then AGI, we're going to need a 100 times more memory than we're producing today. Somebody's going to have to make that. Okay? And that's why this is one of the best pick and shovels plays in history.
Now, as it stands right now, you can make the argument that the stock of memory companies have risen exponentially, and they have, but the 4P on the SP is right now 25. If you look at the 4P of Micron, it's eight. The 4P of Samsung and SK Hynix is six. The reason that a lot of people are afraid from memory, including myself in the beginning, was the cyclicality. Okay, there's a cyclical nature to these sort of stocks. They go up and down, up and down, up and down. Okay? And yes, memory will do the same thing because memory is cyclical. But if we're here, right here, we're not even at the first 10%, then the whole thing right here is wide open. And I think based on the capex cycle of producing memory, it's going to take anybody 5 to 10 years minimum just to create manufacturing facilities to compete with these three companies. Which means for the next 5 10 years, there's very little chance to zero chance of any new competitors entering this market. Demand is going to do this which means for at least 5 10 years. This is a massive investing opportunity. Okay.
Now my plan own the entire haststack own ASML 150% since we spoke about it on Patreon. TSMC up 172% since we spoke about it. Micron the new addition I'm going to add to my top stocks list. This is the supply chain of memory. CG be VRT. This is the cooling and energy. Add picks and shovels. Focus on choke points. That's the most important point. looking at the kind of overall kind of fundamental review of Micron as it appears on stockp.com. I'll talk about that in a second and it's going to be kind of the executive summary of my write up on Micron on my community. By the way, $30,000 members on Patreon. You definitely want to check it out. Revenue is now $42 billion, up 45% of the past year. Free cash flow $17 billion, up 3,000%. Operating margin north of 30%. No competitors for at least 5 years. broad coverage DRAM and NAND high bandwidth memory focus which is critical for AI and it's US unlike SK Hynix and Samsung this is a US company I'm US-centric. Now we're moving to stock MVP 2.0 which will have all that and a lot more information for you to make your investing decisions stock MVP 2.0 I know is launching within a couple of weeks. If you want to lock in existing prices, which will double once we do that, stock-mpp.com. If you get in right now, you're going to lock in your historical price for life. Thank you so much, and I'll see you in the next one. Peace.