Transcription
I'm really looking forward [music] to being together again in uh New York City at the end of May for Cycles [music] in the City 2026. It's going to be thrilling to be there. I'm looking forward as well, Richard. It's going to be a cracker jack. I'm I'm going to I'm going to bring I'm going to bring some really juicy stuff. You bet. Absolutely.
Welcome, Larry. It's great to be with you here and thanks so much for joining me today.
Always my pleasure. Yeah, I always love to talk about cycles.
It was an incredible conference last year, wasn't it? It it was uh not only because of the presentation but to meet so many people in my case to catch up with people I haven't seen for 101 15 years and be with real legends in the business. So it was a great combination a lot of talent a lot of input was an amazing presentation that what you're doing is sustaining this belief in cycles and a central place for it and it's so necessary not just about the stock market about cycles and everything. And so I I just really congratulate you for doing it, Richard. I think just awesome.
So much that means a lot to me. And one of the things I I really appreciated you bringing up last year was how important it is um to really know the people that are doing this business, right, that are trying to understand cycles and and you have met so many of the legends who aren't even with us today anymore. I mean, you were talking about
I mean, did you meet Edgar Lawrence Smith?
No, I never met him. I I of course met Art Merrill and WD and John Gan and Parnell McKenna. There I some of these people I can't remember, but you know, James Dyn Lindsay, Marty W. I mean, we were all Yeah, we're together back then.
Wells Wilder.
Well, well, I started Wells in business.
You're kidding.
No. Wells came to me.
Don't tell me that story. He said, 'Larry, I have an idea for a strategy I want to sell, but I don't know how to sell it. Do you have a anything you could help me? I said, 'Well, you have a mailing list you could try. That's good. And that started Wells. Wells really represented a group of people. Gresham Northcut, uh, another guy's name, Ray. Think of it in a moment. And there were three or four of these guys that came up with the ideas that are in Well's book. Well, was an engineer and an orchestrator and helped with some of them, but Gresham Northcut did a lot of the work in that particular book. Uh but but Gresham was a you know great promoter and uh first time I met Gresham was in chi China. I was sitting in a bus at China Square. I looked out and said that's Wells Wilder [laughter] and people nobody knew it was I said that is I hopped off the bus and ran. Sure enough Wells what are you doing here? You
pumpkin you saw Wells out of the side out of a bus window.
Yeah I looked at the bus window and I saw [laughter] Enamman Square that's Wells. Yeah, I recognize the toupe he had on it when I saw like this is amazing. And then when he did Delta, he invited me to his house to come see what he was doing with Delta and how they did all that. So he has so many of these people. I mean,
you know, because back then we did live conferences like what you're doing.
We knew people, you know, I got drunk with Joe Granville, played pool with them one night. I mean, I got some great stories about these people. Unfortunately, they probably do with me as well. But [clears throat] [laughter]
um there was more more interaction I think back then than now.
I think interaction is so important and that's one of the reasons that the conference is so important to me personally. It was like we just have to do this. I know it's not what uh is most the most profitable thing to do today, but it has to be done. We have to get together in person and and it was such a validation last year to get together with everybody in person. so many people in person and it was so encouraging and motivating because you know the cycles business isn't easy. [laughter]
Yeah. Stock market business is not easy.
Stock market business is not easy.
It's not a a place where people who like perfection should hang their hats. That's for sure.
For sure. And uh one of the things I'm really looking forward to this year is you and Jake Bernstein being together in person. Yeah. Gosh, Jake and I go way way way back. You know, when he was just starting, I knew Jake and [snorts]
we we got together in Chicago and have been friends, watch our families grow up, suffer good and bad things together. And
uh yeah, Jake has been a an incredibly good and dear friend for
I what 50 years now? 55 years, something like that. 60 years. Yeah. A long time. And Jake is probably the most prolific of any author in this business ever. He's I kid Jake. I said, "Jake, you've written more books than you read." And he laughs. But he's really has a large body of knowledge that he's contributed. And uh I just wish I had his energy. My gosh, I just It's amazing what he's produced.
He is amazing. And what I'm particularly looking forward to is a special lunchon with you and Jake for our our VIP and masters working group members. So that's going to be a lot of fun.
That that will be one one of the strengths of Jake Bernstein. This is not widely known.
People come to me and want me to mentor them. I have no idea how to mentor. I'm not a I never took teaching classes. I I don't know what what even mentoring means for sure. But I said, "Go to go see Jake." Because Jake does that. Jake was trained as a clinical psychologist, right? And the feedback we've had from people who have mentored with Jake, they're not necessarily learning the markets from him. But to get your act together as a trader, the feedback has [clears throat] been phenomenal from people. So when when when we have lunch together, I think they they can check with Jake about Yeah. There there's
we we all have basically the same indicators, but we have different outcomes.
Mh. which is really interesting. I was giving a seminar one time, realtime trading seminar. I had a trade, it went up a couple days, whatever I got out of it, made some money. Another guy held on a long, made a lot of money. Another guy got stopped out because the trade didn't work initially. And another guy said, "That's trade not going to work." He went short and lost money. We all had the same indicators, but we had four different outcomes.
I love that.
Why do we get different outcomes? And that's where Jake really excels.
Yeah. Uh there's a there's some really interesting philosophical nuances in there, but we'll save that for another time. So, um uh I was going to ask you, you know, I don't actually know how you got into trading in the first place. I've heard you talk many times. I've met you a few times. I actually don't know how you got into trading in the first place.
The first thing was the stock market crash of 1962 when John came to rolled back steel prices. the stock market crashed. I was in college, Eugene, Oregon, University of Oregon. And I pointed the newspapers, what does this mean? The stock went up. This the day after the crash. The stock went up one point. What does that mean? I didn't know. I mean, my dad worked in refinery. I, you know, I worked in ranches and stuff. I didn't know what that meant. And he said, "Well, that meant if you would have bought that yesterday, you would have made $100." I go, "Holy Toledo, a hundred bucks in a day without going to work?" Uh-huh. I
I mean, I'm all in. How do I do this stuff? Because I thought it'd be really easy. Just just guess what goes up. Boy, well, and back in 1962, $100, like my first car cost $100. Was a lot of money.
Okay.
So, it was just, you know, it was greed. I mean, I'm like, whoa, this looks like easy money. Well, it isn't. It's a lot of hard work.
You know, it's the old uh cowboy sayings that you're too lazy to work and too honest to steal. So, they ride. That's why I wrote better back when I was young. That's why I trade the markets. Like, yeah, it looks like the ideal business because you don't have a boss, you don't have employees, you don't have customers. Like, what could be better than that,
right?
So, to me, it looked like the ideal scenario, but it was I was frankly driven by greed, as I guess we all are.
What would uh what would Larry today say to Larry from 1962?
Oh my gosh. you know what you were getting into.
And and but Richard, that's part of that's part of this grandio picture.
Yeah.
I was set to do something else mentally in my life and I ended up here in some predestined fashion,
some cyclical. I think so much stuff
is predestined to a point. We still have some control over our lives, etc. But but still like I never thought I'd end up doing this. And a lot of people,
yeah,
end up not doing what they thought they would do,
right?
Uh so I realized maybe 25 years ago because I was trying other things. No, Larry, this is your destiny. This is what you do.
Get good at this. Perfect this craft as much as you can. Uh and I think the market stock market is destined to do certain things
and
to [clears throat] that extent I guess we are as well.
And you you talked about like your time in Montana and being kind of immersed in nature and and kind of becoming sensitized to cycles in nature yet you don't really you know you're not um particularly mystical about cycles. You know, you seem to approach them very practically.
Well, that's because I went through so much stuff. I mean, when I was a kid, I fell for it came down the pike. I mean, I went to Tasahara, the Zen Buddhist monastery. I looked dabbled in astrology and, you know, anything, Scientology, biology. Well, I tried everything and and eventually, well, wait, wait, this stuff works or it doesn't work, right? and and my sense was
it may work a little bit, but nobody really had it all wrapped together in any one place. I was, you know, there's no be all one thing to do. And if we went out for dinner tonight, you might order steak and I might order lobster or fish or whatever. We all think differently.
So, [snorts] you have to find the intellectual shoe that fits you. It could be Elliot wave. I don't get that at all. Bob Proctor is a dear friend. I don't I can't even begin to comprehend it. Um, but my mind just doesn't work that way. So you need to find that niche where you go, "Oh yeah, I get this real quickly." That's probably what you should follow. If it it seems if you're quickly to learn it, then that's the way your mind works.
And so what cycles? How do you use cycles today?
Well, carefully, [laughter]
how do you do cycles analysis? Do you sort of do it using math or do you have some favorite cycles that you've come to rely on over the years? You eyeball it like Jake does.
No, I like to use uh mathematical cycle predictors or projectors that will find cycles
and um I can look at a chart and say, "Yeah, there's a 30-day low, a veil or whatever." But I need to know a lot more about it. Like I recently did some stuff on on the her cycles uh the 40-day the 60 the nine-year you know, what's the correlation to acquire fit do these cycles fit the price so once you start to doing it say yeah these are the strong cycles and and even then Richard as I see it cycles are a condition they're not a beall end all they say this is a zone
when I should be looking for a move Now my my next step is to go I'm in that zone. What is the reliability of that move
and that's what I've been working on the last couple years. Okay, we're in a cycle zone and we should rally say for three months. Well, but the the potential the percent of times we rallied in that zone might be 40% because one was a big move. It looks like a big move on your chart. So you get there's waves within cycles and I want to measure the accuracy of the wave within the cycle. But I wouldn't trade just because of a cycle.
So you've said uh don't predict a with a or a doesn't predict a meaning don't just use price to predict price. Right.
Yeah. I think that and I have some slides when a moment we'll look at that. I like to look at exogenous data.
I think charts move for a reason. Prices move for a reason. So I want to look at those reasons. I don't think that charts drive uh the market on a very short day-to-day basis. The market closes way down at low. It looks like a horrible day. You're going to get selling tomorrow. If you don't, that's really bullish.
So, yeah, very short-term charts show the emotions to the day, but but prices go from say $60 to $80 for a real reason. Earnings are up, there was a shortage of wheat, whatever it is. So, I I really want to get into the reasons as opposed to looking at chicken scratches on a chart paper, which I did for I don't know 25 years, 30 years maybe.
All right. Well, let's let's look at some charts.
Okay. Do you want me to show my powerpoints?
Yes, that would be great.
Well, this is interesting. [clears throat] This is um Ann Ran, who I just loved her book, Alice Shrug. Show us how to check your premises.
Do you still love it?
Oh, yeah. Absolutely. Oh, you know, I think Elon Musk is walked right out of the book, frankly. Um,
Elon Musk is John G., huh?
Uh, yeah, he he's the closest we've seen. Yeah, he really is.
He's from another planet.
He is.
So, I'll look at a cycle like the 18-ear cycle is really important one, but how does that correlate to capital price fit? About 40%.
Nine-year cycle comes in higher at 61%.
So, 40 month cycle, a lot of people talked about it, the 50% fit. So, if I'm interested in a short-term basis in 80 days, I got a 62% fit. If I'm a short-term trader, I'm going to look more at this time frame. Or if I'm interested in a very long-term 18-year cycle, I go, "Well, I have low correlation with this." So,
So, did you pick those cycles out because of their correlations or because those are sort of widely known cycles?
Because these are what her said the cycles are. I didn't pick the cycles. these are
his cycles [clears throat]
so if I'm interested in that almost 18year cycle and I see the correlation is low that may mean that within that cycle there are waves that have higher correlations so if I'm infatuated with that cycle I still want to break that down that cycle down to look at the waves within the cycle there might be some really dominant strong time period within that 18-year cycle So, uh, just but but it already looks me like, well, there's probably something that's going to help me predict the long term better than an 8 years, 18 year cycle, so I got to go look for it.
Let's go to our next chart. This is what I was talking about. Exogenous data is a better predictor. Stock markets move because of you can fill in the blank whatever you think astrology uh GAN uh trend line whatever
I think inflation rates earnings money supply and futures production and demand that's why I think markets really move. Mhm.
So instead of studying the cycles of say um cattle, I'd lot rather study the cycle of corn because cattle are fed on corn and fattened on corn
or maybe a weather cycle. I know that hogs live a certain time period about 44 months. So I that that cycle should be important in that market. Um I know there's a cycle to earnings. So as an example like of inflation I think really is significant in our economy. So we can look at inflation which is the black line and the red line is a cycle. It's a real clear 6.3 year cycle in inflation. And as you know with cycle this means back in 2003 we knew inflation would go up because we knew this cycle way back here over here we knew this was a cycle projection and thought look what happened inflation.
How come that that's not a perfect sine wave Larry. What are the squiggles in that line? [sighs and gasps]
The squiggles, I think, are randomness. [laughter] You know, that's
okay.
That there's a so much randomness that we we're never going to have perfection. Plus, I if I smooth this out, I would get rid of the wiggles. But I'm more interested in saying what's this little wiggle up here?
What's how much percent of time do we rally in that little wiggle? or maybe from this point to this point may be stronger than there to there. So I look at that but for inflation is like hey I want to know when inflation going to pick up.
Yes.3
here's the same cycle and projected out from 2014 cycle picks up. Oh we're going to start to inflate now. So I think in
later this year and in 2027 we'll see inflation pick up in the marketplace.
Wow. Which raises the question, so what does that mean?
I know that I know you know that uh amplitude doesn't predict price movement, but that does look like a a very steep line. [laughter]
Yeah, good point. Here it looks like, wow, black line went up this much, red line went up this much, black line went up that. But here, red line didn't go up much and black line did. Cycles tell us this area, this area, this area. They don't tell us the magnitude as you mentioned.
So, we don't know how big inflation will be, but I would think we're going to start to see inflation,
which begs the question.
What does that do for the stock market?
Yeah.
So, now I'm doing the exogenous thing. I'm looking at the cycle in red of inflation.
At 1993, the cycle was turning up. Say, "Oh, look what happened to stock prices."
And 1999, they turned up and we topped in 2001. So the blue line is the Dow Jones and the black line is inflation. Yeah. And the red line is the forecast, the cycle,
the cycle. Yeah.
Of inflation.
So, oh, there's inflationary pickup here. Oh, look what happened to stocks. Inflationary pickup. Look what happened to stocks. So inflation
not what I am trained to think, right? Inflation of course. [laughter]
I know what [snorts] we're trained to think The biggest one, Richard, this is uh I I may drag this chart up and bring it this summer, is that
the I think the leading cause of inflation is high interest rates.
You want inflation, you increase interest rates and you get inflation. It's real simple.
And [clears throat] there's a reason why. Because if interest rates are high,
people who have money are getting paid more interest on their money. and they have money, so they're going to go out and spend it.
Wow.
And people who don't have money, I better buy it now before rates go higher.
So, I think high rates, and I I'll show I will show it this summer. Definitely a correlation. High rates drive inflation because it increases money supply.
Uh and I'm I'm just so absolutely clear of that. But anyway, we'll get off the point. So, we know this is the red cycle of inflation. And but at times, right, the stock market starts to come down. address that in a moment, but let's bring us up to date. So, here's 2010. Inflation picks up so stock market again the cycle picks up. 2021 cycle picks up and look where we are now. We're going to start to inflate and and that's
bullish for stocks until this is where everybody agrees inflation is bad. Uh but until when? Until it gets about 5%. when we're starting to inflate 5% peranom then then you you got a lot of problems coming in the economy but in the meantime until we get to that level and we're not at that level now uh inflation is bullish Richard I really appreciate what you did Richard uh gave me access to the back issues of cycles magazine you know I used to get it when a physical magazine came out in the 1960s and 70s a big blue magazine came through the read through it, looked at all the cycle, all the incredible work that Gertrude Sher had done. And I decided, you know, let's go back and see what we can learn from those back issues. So,
this was from the July 1969 issue of the Foundation magazine. There's an article, Automobile Factory Sales in 1969 at a 13-year cycle. That was 1969. Now, we're in 2026, almost 60 years ago. So I thought, hm, let's look at these cycles and see, did they hold up?
Is there persistence to cycles is what I wanted to know. And I've gone through a lot of cycles in the magazines. And this is just one of many, but it's really interesting to me.
Uh car sales. We're going to now look at total vehicle sales. This comes uh from US Bureau of uh economic analysis, and it's published on the Fred web page. Everybody has access to it. It kind of looks cyclical. comes up or comes down. That's interesting.
It does.
So then I decided to see about that 13-year cycle which is shown in blue against the black line which is sales. In other words, the black line is just what you saw here, right? Okay.
And now I put the 13 like, wow, look at that.
And that like, whoa, wait a minute. This is really hot.
Where have we been? Why didn't I pay attention to that magazine?
Wow. um really intriguing to me. So carrying that forward, we see another cyclical low in sales. We see where we are now. We should start to decline in auto sales until uh about 20 34 35.
Okay. Well, I Well, that's interesting, but you know, I like exogenous data. So,
if there's really a 13-year cycle in car sales, there should be some reflection of that in the price of Ford or General Motors.
So, that was a big question like, let's run a 13-year cycle. No, no optimization, no other. Let's take stock data, put in a 13ear cycle, and look at it.
So, this is what I found out. And Richard is like, "Wow, knock my socks off."
Wait a minute. So, let me make sure I know what we're looking at here. The the blue line and the black line are the stock prices of GM and Ford.
That's right. The black is uh General Motors and the blue is Ford and the red is the cycle the 13-year cycle projection.
Wow.
And it like wow it really called the 2020 low caused called the big rally we saw in 2025. says we should continue rallying until about 2027 is over and the next big move in car sales is around 2030.
Mhm.
So
bottom
it was like overwhelmingly say all this information that the foundation had all these years ago still has application which whether I'm going to use this to buy or sell the stock to me it's an academic question of is there cycle persistence? Do cycles hold up?
Yes. be if they do, then I can use them in making decisions. If they don't, well, I'm chasing my tail. But I've seen enough because I've done numerous studies based on the old cycle foundation magazines and took those into the future and they're there. They're there.
Well, how would you use this cycle, Larry? Would you just I know you one of the things that's important to you is trend and you know that stock prices trend up over time and that cycles are better at calling bottoms than tops especially in stocks. So would you say not really, you know, just hold off on buying auto makers until uh 2029? Is that what you do with this?
Yeah. I to simplify if I really liked an auto stock, I want to come in and look at what about this wave for the middle of 2026 into 2027. Okay. What what percentage of time have we seen a rally
uh in in General Motors? Well, General Motors have been a lot stronger in Ford. So, I'd want to look at General Motors and say, okay, because they have a real big wave cycle here, but how about this wave is do I want to do a lot of short selling in this wave? Um, so these these waves are going to be my trading opportunities in the market.
Fantastic.
This would be my next like Yeah, we could have a buy coming up. It looks like maybe March, April this year. I'd have to go in and measure that and then see, okay, how reliable, how how valid is this wave? Is it just a little like a little something like this or start of a significant wave,
right? Very nice. I love that. And uh so let me see if I can kind of sum up. So I love how you're looking at exogenous events. A doesn't predict A. Don't just use price to predict price. Try to understand what's driving the cycles. So you shared with us today that you think the biggest driver of stock market prices is inflation.
That's one of it's not the only one there. Yeah, there's numerous, but it it's it's the most topical one. Everybody talks about inflation every day,
right? And so inflation, you're predicting is going to rise in 26 into 27.
Yes.
Which will likely mean higher equity prices,
right?
And interest rates, which was interesting.
And interest rates, um, I didn't do an interest rate forecast here. I don't recall what it is. But um the the bigger thing in rates of course is that lower rates uh cause less inflation. Higher rates cause inflation,
right? And higher rates cause inflation. I usually think inflation causes higher rates.
I know that's what everybody argued that
that was a higher rates cause inflation.
Absolutely. I will show it uh this summer. Uh I'll bring my charts and you'll see where we have inflation. we push forward the cycle of interest rates and you'll see inflation goes up when the cycle of interest rates says we interest rates will go up most inflation goes up we can predict
as long as we don't get above about 5% in what the 10year yield
well then no isn't that's more for inflation stock market but I I don't know an absolute value there but clearly and it's part of modern monetary theory it's not my idea Mosler friend of mine in the Virgin Islands came up with a notion is more widely accepted now. Um that for two reasons. One in when rates are high, people go out and buy stuff because they're afraid it'll go higher.
So that increases prices. And the other's people that are getting interest checked were getting 5% of the money. Now they're getting 13% of the money and they have money. That's why they haven't invested. They're going to spend that money.
Yeah.
So
I know that's kind of where where my head's at right now. It's like anything if if I think about a significant capital investment that I have to make over the next 10 years, my mindset right now is do it now because it's going to be more expensive five years from now.
Another good driver of inflation and it makes sense as well is the stock market. I can show that to some because think when the stock market rallies people have more money. When people have more money they buy stuff. So it's it all the basis of the Austrian schools right that the more money in circulation caused inflation but okay what puts money into circulation M2 M1 the old days or higher rates big rally in the stock market
um and those are driving forces
very interesting Larry so I know you're actually writing a book on cycles
yeah I don't know if I'll ever finish [laughter] but you know I decided kind semi retired. I'm uh what am I going to do? Go feed pigeons? No, I tried that. That didn't work.
Like I got to do something with my life. So I thought, well, I'm going to write a book on an historical thing that I'm very involved with. And I have, you know, I have arthritis. I I never learned to type. So for me, it's like hunting peck and I'm going to do it about cycles because that's like such a passion that I have.
And so I've started the book. Who knows where it will ever go, but I've got five chapters into it so far, and hopefully someday it'll see the light of day.
And what you shared with me that one of your hopes for the book is that it would reach um some of the policy makers and the Federal Reserve, for example, and alert them to the inflation that's coming.
Yeah. And the idea is I you know when Arthur Burns was a member of the foundation of study of cycles I think there was a concern about cycles but now you read all the papers of Federal Reserve they they don't mention cycle they mentioned all sorts of econometric formulas they go guys two years three and a half years ago we said inflation is going to go down it did so if the Fed and maybe they did know that and they didn't tell us that but I knew inflation was going to go down then and it did. So they could have adapted monetary policy knowing in advance and we would have had a smoother economy. So maybe they know these cycles. They don't talk about it.
Um and whatever the case, at least we as a public should know, hey, I got to be thinking about this. We're going to start to inflate and that means stocks will go higher when it gets real high. I want to get out of stocks and and I want to protect myself and I want to buy bonds because I'm gonna get a real high rate of return on my money. Mhm.
So if we can see a little bit into the future,
we're king. We're kings in this world.
And I know speaking of that, I know you have some concern about say like 27 to 32 roughly.
Yeah. I wish I was smart enough, you know, to figure all this stuff out. I I I think there's a bare market coming. Not yet. Uh, you know, you got to be so careful being bearish. All these people, it's the end of the earth. It's the end of the earth. the well, there's been what 4.2 billion years and so far every other guy's been wrong. So those are bad odds,
right? Those are bad odds.
And we've had one major crash actually to the crash of 1929 which I don't think we'll ever see again because we now have the Federal Reserve system and 1970 was a real bare market. We were down for a couple years. That was a real bare market. Everything else we had the market is down for six 10 months. Boom pops right back up. I mean, I remember March of 2000 into 2002.
That that was interesting. It was different in the Dow than it was the S&P or the NASDAQ.
Okay. Yeah.
And we're seeing that right now. The Dow has been stronger than the NASDAQ has been.
Maybe this is happening again. So, as you get to these turning points, you have to judge like what's what's the supure here? You know, what's going on in the marketplace? But we're alerted in advance, I'm convinced, by cycles. George Marishelle was able to do it with his forecast for President Roosevelt.
We can even get better at it now.
Well, whether your book sees the light of day or not, it will see the light of the cycles conference in
I'm gonna bring I'm gonna bring some really juicy stuff. You bet. Absolutely.
Oh, man. I'm really looking forward to it. And uh I just got to ask you one last thing, Larry, because I uh asked you this once and I'll never forget your answer where I asked you, you know, what is the the most important factor in your success? And you said riding knowing how to ride the bull for eight seconds.
Yeah.
So, can you just talk about that a little bit for other people who are contemplating a a a life of ease in the markets? Well, if if you know anything about rodeo, you have to stay on your horse or your bull for eight seconds. Doesn't seem like much time. Looks until you get on the bull. And those eight seconds or in my case, bear back or a bear back for
8 seconds is an eternity. [laughter] It's like it's two years in 8 seconds and because the time frame warps so much, you're getting bucked and you're, you know, worried about and same thing in the markets. I mean, the there's the easiest strategy. If I would have been really smart, I would have borrowed $100,000 in 1962 when I started, bought stocks and went to bed under an electric blanket and woke up now.
I'd be worth, you know, I don't know, $15 million or something.
Um,
no stress.
With no stress. No,
no bulls.
No bulls. Nothing. But I held on, right?
Yes. So like I said the example where there we we had one I had a signal real time trading right one guy lost money one guy lost a lot of money I made somebody another guy made even more money than I did. Um it's the outcome of how you do and it's based on your ability to have patience your ability to persevere. I've had, I don't know, millions of trades, but I I don't I've ever had very many trades that were successful from the absolute tick I got in. They were never against me and wait straight up and made a lot of money. I I don't buy the absolute lows or sell the absolute highs. They're back back and forth. I'm up and down. And unless you can live with that emotionally, uh hold through that, uh you're going to get out the wrong time,
right? Kind of bring brings new new meaning to the idea of a bull market.
[laughter]
Yeah.
Yeah. Bull market. Great. No, bull markets are tough to uh endure. I mean, think of like I mean the gold and silver markets here recently, right? They're they've been
it's hard to hold on. It's human nature.
Hard to hold on.
Human nature to get out. So, if you get a winning trade,
you need something that'll keep you in that trade for whatever the time frame you're trading for. Five years, 10 days, whatever it is. I need in my case I'm such a weak person something mechanical is alert they're trying to you got to get out here cowboy
or continue holding continue holding continue holding
uh something that will assist me in doing that me just saying it looks like this way or that way I'm not that good at that so I like something mechanical that says this is a trend change here.
Awesome. Well, Larry, I could talk to you for hours, but uh I really appreciate your time today, and I'm really looking forward to being together again in New York City at the end of May for Cycles in the City 2026.
It's going to be thrilling to be there. I'm looking forward as well, Richard. Thanks again for doing this. And thanks in advance for this summer. It's going to be a cracker jacket.
Cycles matter because they show us the future. Nothing else shows us a future path. nothing that I've ever found in over 60 years of doing this. The foundation is bigger than markets, right? It started out bigger than markets. It's still bigger than markets. It's bigger than us. There is no such thing as a black swan. It is merely a cycle [music] that was not forecast or anticipated.
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To me, it's huge. If I can get a glimpse of the future, just a little bit of the future, I'm way ahead. I think that the foundation for the study of cycles has a role to play [music] in both bringing technology to the world but also really emphasizing agency and human agency. See?