Transcription
Hey everyone, and thanks for jumping back into the cryptoverse. Today, we're going to talk about Bitcoin, and we're going to discuss the fear and greed index. If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up, and also check out the sale on Into the Cryptoverse premium at into the cryptoverse.com. Let's go ahead and jump in.
So, the fear and greed index, uh, I'm sure many of you guys are familiar with at this point. I will link the, um, the source to it down in the description below if you want to go check it out. Uh, but here we have it on the website, and the fear and greed index right now is currently sitting at around 52. What's really interesting about, you know, the last several all-time highs is it hasn't really corresponded or coincided with euphoria, right? Like we haven't really seen retail come back in the same way that you might expect. I mean, to some degree, right? We are retail. Let's not kid ourselves. But when I say retail, I mean new people to the cryptoverse, right? And just sort of a brief segue, if you go look at the social interest, it's almost non-existent compared to where we normally are in post-halving years, right? And normally, in post-halving years, we have retail pouring in. But now, no one really cares, right? No one really cares, which is really interesting.
And, and, you know, you could look at this and say, well, what I mean, this is based on YouTube subscribers and views and followers to analysts on Twitter or X and exchanges and layer ones. And so maybe you think, all right, well, what if people just aren't watching YouTube? Or what if they're just not on, on Twitter or X anymore? What if they're just finding all their, uh, what if they're on TikTok? To each their own, right? To each their own. But this is also confirmed with the fear and greed index, right? You see the fear and greed index here is 52. This is confirmed with the fear and greed index. So if you look at the fear and greed index, which takes into account a lot of different things, right? It's not, you know, it, it looks at social media and, and Bitcoin dominance that looks like it's about to go up soon. Uh, Google Trends, market momentum, volatility, right? So you can see that it's not just the social charts that I have that are saying, look, euphoria is not really here. You can also look at the fear and greed index and say, look, you know, the high that was put in by the fear and greed index in late November of 2024 has kind of been the high for a while, right? I mean, like despite the fact that that Bitcoin went to a new all-time high in January, and then again later on, uh, you know, in, in May, and, and in July and August, while it did that, the fear and greed index has not gone up to the levels that it was at back in November of 2024, suggesting, right, suggesting that the retail participants that people keep thinking are arriving maybe are not actually here because the euphoria doesn't seem to be there in that same way, right?
And one of the things you can look at to maybe get some idea as to why there's a couple of reasons. One reason, you know, if you look at, at 2017, the, the, the move that Bitcoin had from the, you know, when it ba, basically when it tested the 2016 high in, you know, sort of at the beginning of the year, so from the 2016 high to the August high, Bitcoin rallied over 500%. But from the 2024 high, right, from the 2024 high here to the current August high, that's only about a 60% rally, right? So the move in 2017 was basically an order of magnitude greater than what Bitcoin has experienced from similar time frames, right? Over, over similar time frames. Um, now, that doesn't mean that there can't be further upside, right? It just means that you have to be aware of diminishing returns, right? You have to be aware of diminishing returns. Um, so, you know, if you were to take it from the August high to the, to the cycle top, that was a 300% rally, right? So, you know, going from this August top when you're sort of speculating on, on market cycle peaks or whatnot, rest assured, it's probably not going 300% higher from the August high this cycle because you can see, you know, just how much it underperformed. In fact, you could say that, you know, this was 300%, this was 500%, so maybe it's about, you know, three fifths of it. Um, it's dubious speculation, right? Let's not, let's not put a whole lot of, uh, weight into, into something like this. But you get what I'm saying, right? You could, you could speculate on theoretical possibilities that might happen by the end of the year while also maintaining something that is somewhat realistic just based on the moves by percentage that we've already seen.
The other reason you could argue that retail investors have not really come back in the same way and, and that euphoria isn't really screaming on their fear, fair fear and greed is because Ethereum has not yet hit durable all-time highs. And I told you guys on the first approach that Ethereum would, would get rejected. And I remember so many people, uh, you know, when it was up there, not really willing to make that call. You know, they were calling for alt season and whatnot. And, you know, that, I, I don't really think that has happened. Um, I don't really think you can have an alt season, a durable alt season until Ethereum is durably at new all-time highs, right? So that's, I think, what people missed. And, and until you see that, you could still see fear and greed not really relaying the same type thing. I mean, obviously, when Bitcoin's going up, everyone loves it. But again, you don't have that same type of euphoria that we had back in like November of 2024 when, you know, there were a decent amount of people, uh, coming into the cryptoverse for at least a little bit. I mean, the social interest, while it went up, it didn't go up that much, but it, it at least did spike back up to that point 4 to 0.5 wristband, right? And it did some last cycle, too. And then eventually it, it took off and, and maybe eventually it's coming, right? But still expecting September to be a, you know, rather dull month. Um, normally September, not a whole lot of interest happens. If it, if it happens, it doesn't really start until October, right? So, as always, wake me up when September ends.
If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up, and again, check out the sale on Into the Cryptoverse premium at into the cryptoverse.com. I'll see you guys next time. Bye.