Transcription
[Music] Donald Trump is shaking the markets again by announcing that if China does not close a deal with the United States, there will be 155% tariffs by November 1st, which is much higher than expected. The markets really don't like it, especially Bitcoin. US indices are doing okay, but the crypto market doesn't like it at all, which is the riskiest market right now. And this is clearly felt with liquidity that is quite low. We are going to analyze all of this because we are reaching extremely important levels for the continuation of this rebound. Is this rebound already over, or do we still have a chance to be saved? That's what we're going to analyze today as well. We will, of course, take stock of Ethereum. Just before we start, I remind you that our algo service is still available. 30 TP for the lim strategies last week, but especially a record for the SPT strategies which also made 30R last week. I remind you that past performance does not represent future performance, of course, but it was a very good week. To access it, it's the first link in the pinned comment. All useful links concerning my content. This will take you to this page. You just need to register on Bitgate via your partner link. So, you go through the small verification. There, like this. You register, and once that's done, you just have to click on this second link Algo Trading, mentorship, VIP, Alcoin and crypto. And quite simply, it's a short video that explains how to activate the algos, get your mentorship for free. It's a training from A to Z and also access to the VIP Alcoin on Discord in the VIP crypto. This is where I will share the best opportunities on the market from my point of view.
So, to come here on BTC, Trump is putting a lot of pressure on China again, who really wants to close a deal, and so 155% well, at some point, even if it were 10,000%, I think it would have the same impact. The market has understood that we are a bit in this trade war that continues to drag on, but consequently, it creates a lot of volatility, and we take advantage of it to go where there is liquidity, quite simply on the price. So, this is the little tweet that can, we see it here, the tweet marks itself. It's TradingView's tool that shows you the exact time it was tweeted. Here it was tweeted. It marked the top of BTC and this bearish leg. So, what are the targets and objectives for today, and what about the rebound? The rebound, well, it might already be over. Again, I repeat, this is a bearish dynamic. What's important is not to close weekly below the last low, because if we settle below 107,000 for seven weeks, it would be a big bearish signal that would bring us, from my point of view, into a bearish swing with lower targets. We've already talked about 98,000, or even the zone between 86 and 92. I don't know if we'll go there, but in any case, these are targets if this bearish swing is triggered. Now, if this rebound is not over and everything is fine, we can mark our Monday low, our Monday high. Also, by the end of the week, normally, even if the government is shut down, we should have the inflation figures. Again, CPI, CPI, these are expected figures. For now, the market is pricing in an inflation increase, it's not moving interest rates. So, that's rather interesting to consider that despite higher inflation, the market is prioritizing liquidity because there is a huge drying up of liquidity. Many banks are starting to struggle, based on internal discussions and what's being said on many metrics. So, the Fed will prioritize liquidity. The market has understood this well. So, even rising inflation shouldn't change the probabilities of lowering rates. But you never know, if at the end of the week, the figures are better than expected, well, that could be a good sign. After that, we'll have to see.
Now, the most important thing is what's happening. Now, we locate Monday's low, Monday's high, and if this rebound is not over, we should see the price react below Monday's low to take the opposite direction and continue to rise. This is the first thing, because here, we can note that we are in our breaker, and here, we can note that we have our Monday low. So, I'm too lazy to write "previous daily low" in my template, it's right here. And this is what could lead us to take the stops from Monday's low and then continue to rise while respecting the breaker. This is scenario number 1. We have exactly the same thing on the CME. We still have Monday's low which is there. We also have a small gap that is still open. This is what we could go for. The stops, the gap, respecting the breaker block, and going in the other direction. This is if the rebound is not over. So, if you have a bullish bias, Monday's low is a very good location to find a long to continue and deliver the price to the highs. So, notably these stops here that were not taken, these stops here at the price of 111960, then 113576, then 115912. This is if you have a bullish bias. If the price breaks the previous daily low, but when I say breaks, I don't just mean a close like that. I mean really settling below it, that the price does this. Well, first of all, there's a breaker block, so it would be a pullback to the breaker block and then we'll look for the stops, probably from last week's low, so 103420, and probably the wick of the crash below 101500. So, this is what would actually mark that the rebound is already over. It would be a very, very weak rebound, perhaps in the premium zone of the previous move. I'll try to look at that. There, it often ends here, clearly. So, yes, we came into an RLZ short. So, well, it's roughly here that the market would have already turned around. Okay, so that's fine, we'll have to see, we'll have to see the price reaction. The market is stressed by the tariff news, etc. After that, we see that the indices don't care much. Well, literally, the indices didn't drop at all on this news. Well, the dollar is rising a bit. This might be causing pressure on BTC. Here, we can see on the hourly chart that the dollar push might be causing some damage to Bitcoin. But there, BTC is still weaker. The crypto market is still weaker than the indices, which really didn't react to this news. It's really BTC that went into this bearish movement. So, for now, yes, I think we're going to trigger Monday's low, and we'll have to see, because until proven otherwise, for now, I'm talking about this movement. I'm not talking about the movement in its entirety, but there was the possibility of a deeper rebound with this stop hunt, the push, the fact that this candle retraced half of this candle. So, as I say, for me, it's either we react below the low and hop, we continue. If it doesn't react, well, I think we'll meet again well below last week's low, so below 103500, or even below the low of 101500. And Bitcoin would have already finished its rebound, like this, and would start to fall again. This is a scenario that is totally probable. We just need to see how we react below Monday's low. In any case, I think that's the target.
Regarding ETFs, we can look at that quickly. Still no inflows. Now, outflows are decreasing. Minus 40 million yesterday. So, that's good, there's less selling pressure for now. So, selling pressure is not increasing. But I remind you that we need inflows, we need buyers for the price to go up, otherwise we'll only have rebounds to liquidate shorts. This is a bit what we are doing and going back down to purge lower levels. On the Ethereum side, we'll switch to Ethereum. We'll see a bit what's going on. Are there ETFs buying or not at all? Same thing, outflows yesterday, -145 million, so more selling pressure on Ethereum, which has a smaller capitalization and less liquidity, so which probably creates more impact on the downside. We'll go and see a bit what's happening on ETH. We'll go on Binance here. So, Monday's low has already been taken. Well, Monday's candle closed in the red here. And, and so this is not the best. After that, it's Bitcoin that will decide what happens again. If Bitcoin reacts well below its Monday low, well, Ethereum will rebound and can head towards last week's high. And I remind you again, think that if you are more of a swing trader and you want to have a clear situation of the price without bothering to look at what's happening every day, even though I know it's time, well, as long as we don't resolve the daily fair value gap here, nothing will happen on Ethereum except bearish attacks and bearish continuation with targets at the lows here and this stop zone at $3350. This is especially what is likely to happen as long as the market doesn't break the daily fair value gap. You see that we filled it, we were rejected. As long as we can't break it, our targets are to continue to seek sell-side liquidity, so sells, and also to purge the stops here that were not taken at $3353. That's why it's essential to break this daily fair value gap. This is our big breakdown candle here, our crash candle. Do we have a different view on futures? That could be interesting. We'll look at that on daily. So, first of all, we see that we had the gap on the CME that was filled on this move. Rather interesting to see if the price will react here or not. If not, well, there will be a new low, and the objective on the CME. Now, what's interesting is that this is a monthly low. I won't call it previous monthly low, but we'll call it monthly low. We have the August low at 3548. Well, theoretically, this is an objective we could try to reach if this rebound is already over. So, on the Perp market, 3548, well, it's going back to work on the wick. The median threshold of this wick, almost, possibly. After that, I won't hide from you that this is a bearish dynamic. Here, an important level is also the first support at 3580. Starting to settle below the first support. That would start to announce a range with a bottom here, a top here, and probably in the coming months, more like working on the reload zone. It's not guaranteed, but it's a possible scenario. Okay, it doesn't mean it will happen, but if we really lose 382, you know the rule for those who have been on the channel for a long time, there are high probabilities of going to check out the reload zone here. And this is the zone for investors who missed this rally. This would be a very good zone to position yourself on Ethereum, possibly. I'm not saying we're going there, but if we go there, don't be the one crying and selling, but be the one buying, since we'll be in professional investment zones for those who missed this bullish push. But there, we observe well how Bitcoin reacts today below Monday's low. Set alerts, put your chart on daily, look at yesterday's candle, see if the price reacts or not. It can be interesting. From what I see on open interest, there was a lot of FOMO yesterday on this move. Then, Trump did his thing, so the crypto market is getting hammered because people went long just before. So, now we are liquidating the longs. I told you, and I repeat, the market is very illiquid. We're going to hunt as many people as possible. This is how exchanges will make money because currently, there are so few people trading that they are forced to push the price to extremes to get order executions. Otherwise, there are no orders being executed in their book. It's mainly market maker algorithm orders, and that doesn't make them money. So, if they want to make money, they have to execute human orders, or generally retail trader orders. And since the market is quite illiquid, well, that causes more significant price variations because if you want to go and get the stops of buyers and sellers, you have to push the price a bit further because there are many fewer traders, so liquidations are a bit more extreme, or stops. And consequently, if the stops are high, well, they are often at extremes, like for example, Monday's low or even last week's low. So, really expect a market that will go and purge the extremes, and anyway, you can see the dynamic we are in, which is a dynamic where the price does nothing. This is one of the concepts of CT, which is Seek and Destroy. It will just try to destroy as many people as possible. We see it here. Liquidity grab, liquidity grab, liquidity grab, liquidity grab. But there's no dynamic. We see that it's tracing what's called a megaphone. A megaphone is a structure where you destroy as many people as possible. It's a very volatile structure, and as long as we are in this megaphone, expect this structure to try to grab as much liquidity as possible. Which proves that the market is less liquid and therefore, if we want to execute orders and exchanges to make money, well, you simply have to push the price further than usual to execute orders. That's what you need to understand. I'll stop here for today. I hope you enjoyed it. If so, don't hesitate to bombard the likes, subscribe, leave a small comment. Thank you very much to those who play along. I remind you of all the links in the description if there's a lot of free content. There's also my trading school if it's the only paid subscription. I'll let you check all that out. We'll meet again later for the macro review. See you soon. Bye bye.