Transcription
[Music] Welcome back to another episode of Investing with IBD. It's Justin Nielson here, your host, and it is October 11th, 2023. And joining me, as he always does, is Arusha Paris. He is a portfolio manager over at O'Neil Global Advisors. How are you doing, Arusha?
I'm doing well, Justin.
Well, it's great to see you, and it's also great to see our special guest, Mark Ritchie II. He is coming on to the show. He was just recently on IBD Live. He is working closely with Mark Minervini, and he also was featured in the Momentum Masters. A great trader. When he was on IBD Live, it was just such a great time we had with you, Mark. And so, I was like, "Gosh, we've got to have this guy back on the podcast!" So, welcome back, Mark. It's good to see you.
Good to see you as well, Justin. Good to see you, Ria. You guys are already being too kind. So, we're going to have a good time, hopefully, talking markets and trading. Absolutely.
So, a few things we're going to talk about, of course. As we always do, we're going to get into the markets. Definitely a little bit of a change from our last podcast, so we'll talk about that. Also, how sometimes the sentiment can be so ugly feeling when the bottom happens and when the turn happens, so we'll talk a little bit about that. And of course, we're going to get some of the stocks that are on Mark's radar. But Mark, let's get right into it and start with the NASDAQ Composite, because this has been the strongest index out there. And again, I think for most of this year, it's been kind of a little bit hit or miss, depending on what time you're looking at things. It was a strong January start, a nice tight area in April, and then boom, it was, you know, after the races in May and June. But then a little bit more of a tougher going, and that last August 29th follow-through day never gained any traction. Now we've got another follow-through day from October 6th. What's your take?
Well, you summed up a lot of it pretty well, even for the entire year. And the funny thing is, the NASDAQ, to me, has been the pretty, you know, the best-looking girl at the dance, if you will, certainly as far as the indexes are concerned. You know, whereas if you look at the small caps, it's been pretty nasty. So, and lots of people have been talking about how the breadth has been, you know, very narrow, you know, people highlighting things like the Magnificent 7, which all, of course, are within the NASDAQ, sort of holding, you know, the market head above water, if you will. Look, the reality is, like you said, it's been a tougher environment because the breadth has been so narrow. So, and you know what I often like to say is, like, look, if you have to have the one or two stocks that are moving in order to do well, it's going to be a trickier environment, and that's what we've had. Where, you know, outside of Nvidia and, you know, the SMC and those type of names, even in the summer, that were, you know, really sort of your classic growth type names, you've had to take a little bit more of a shorter-term, you know, trading type mentality, I think, to really get consistent traction. At least if you're more of a position trader, you kind of have to take more of a wait-and-see approach.
Now, as far as what I think right now, look, when you have a valid accumulation day, you know, follow-through day like we had on Friday, you've got to look to see, are there any ideas? And assuming there's anything that's meeting the criteria, you know, that's when we have a rule: you've got to dip a toe, you know, or as David Ryan, Mark Minervini, would call it, like, you've got to take a mental health buy. Meaning, the fastest way to get you in sync with the market is to stay flexible, which means you've got to be able to put some money to work somewhere. Again, that's assuming there's merchandise on the shelf. Well, we had some ideas. I would say the list isn't robust right now, but as you guys know, that changes really quickly. So, we can sort of go from, you know, where were we Friday to where were we now, and, you know, how we've handled things. You guys, you know, tell me in which order you want to go over stuff.
Yeah, and so, Mark, you know, you're slowly moving in here, maybe using a little bit of progressive exposure. Maybe actually talk a little bit more about, like, progressive exposure, of how you're going to maybe let one decision tell you whether to get in a little bit more progressively.
Sure. And progressive exposure, for those who aren't familiar, you know, is a term we use at MPA, you know, trying to teach people how to get aggressive at the right time, or to be trading your biggest, ideally, when things are working, and your smallest when they're not. And one of the things I find that helps people, if they think about this in terms of like a distribution curve, is progressive exposure ideally helps you get the tails working for you. Meaning, so, let's say if you think of a bell curve where most people think all my wins and losses are going to be evenly distributed, that's actually not how reality plays out. So, even if you have a coin flip, you know, and it's 50/50, you're going to have series where it works for and against you. Well, and as you gentlemen know very well, like winning, you know, winners in the market, specifically in a style like ours, they tend to sometimes come in bunches. So, you want to use that to your advantage. And the losses also come in bunches. So, you want to think of it in terms of how do I wall off the left-hand side of the distribution, meaning like where things just aren't working, and expand the right-hand side, you know, or and get those periods, if you can, you know, sort of working for you.
And the way I do it, and the way I teach it, is to say, "Listen, if you buy a name and it really starts to work, you need to use that feedback to inform, you know, say, your next buy," assuming that there's more. The other mistake people make is they just assume, "I just bought something and it worked, I guess everything's going to work," meaning like, just start wildly shooting at anything. Like, no, like, it's still "aim small, miss small," you know, in terms of your tactics. But it means, you know, potentially that the market is healthy. You know, what I often like to say is, you know, if things aren't working, it's either your criteria or the market. Well, you know, if you have good criteria, then it's either, say, a good or bad type of period in the market. Well, when I start buying something and it really starts working, I'm using that as a reinforcing signal to say, "Okay, at least I've got the timing is starting to work." You know, or in our case, institutions are buying names, you know, they're going out the risk curve, they're putting money to work, you know, whether it's in growth or momentum type names. That's a, that's that, that signal to say, "Okay, I want to lean on any open profits I have to potentially take more exposure." It's an art. It's not a, it's both. I, I was like to say, like, it's an art with scientific boundaries or statistical boundaries.
So, case in point, right now, Friday, I owned, I have a few leftover positions of some things I've been riding since the summer, trying to stick with. But overall exposure is quite low, holding a lot of cash. Why? Because nothing had been working. We've had either very little setups, and what setups we had just weren't working. Almost any directional trader worth his salt would have told you that, you know, going into even last week. We get, we get an accumulation day. You, you look around. I didn't actually buy anything on Friday, because volume wasn't running very well. There were a few stocks working. And then after the close, you know, did my weekend work, set up a few alarms. Same thing we do every day, by the way. This isn't like, this wasn't a special thing because we had an accumulation day. Like, you put in the work every single day. Yep, set the alarms. And, you know, my co-portfolio manager, Brandon, and I basically said, "Okay, you know, first name to go or move through a pivot of a few names on Monday, we're going to take a position." Then we'll see how, you know, so I bought Duolingo on Monday. That was the first one to go. We can talk about that setup, you know, later. But, and so far, so good. I wouldn't say so far, so phenomenal. And, you know, we ended up buying another name on Tuesday.
And, and right now, it's sort of then the other thing I tell people to do is pick a level of exposure and risk you're willing to take at first, and don't go beyond that until you get some form of traction. And that's different for each person. And this is where some people like to take a little more, maybe, out the hop, or maybe they take one decent-sized position in a really good name, or a really, a setup where they feel like, you know, if this can't work, nothing will work. I do that sometimes as well. Other times, I take a little more of a shotgun approach. Maybe you buy three or four small positions, stick a few toes in the water. Either way, though, I'm looking for that same reinforcement to say, "Is the timing working? You know, are the tactics working? Are stocks from any kind of pivots, low-risk entry points, whatever your vernacular, are they working?" And once, once you sort of get the, that feel, that, and "feel" just means open P&L working in your favor, you know, as far as I'm concerned, that's when I'm looking to then either buy another name, or maybe even move more into a name I already own, should it pull back orderly. Sometimes the best stock to buy is the one you already own. You can just get a little heavier, maybe, in it, so long as it's not too extended. And really important caveat, we can get into the nuances, you know, how to trade some of these pivots if you guys want. But that's exactly how I try and do it every single time. The way you do it, though, just kind of depends on the texture of the game. You know, the way, how is the game unfolding? And if you think of it, that's more of a sports analogy. But, you know, in any type of arena like that, sometimes the way the game unfolds, you know, if there were a ton of ideas, I mean, say, following Friday's move, I probably would have been maybe even a little more aggressive. I wouldn't have said there was a lot of really high-quality ideas. Well, dip to, this is where for me, generally, I don't get as aggressive right off of, say, a follow-through day or accumulation day. I know some guys who do. I've tended to make the best money sometimes weeks, maybe even months after. Oh, that's interesting. Where you get, you know, you sort of get this other wave of ideas, and that, that reinforces, at least for me, that, "Okay, this wasn't just a one-off," to use the wave analogy, "a one-off set of waves. We've got a whole another set coming in here." And then I lean on any of the gains I've, you know, ideally either have in terms of open P&L, or maybe I've even trimmed a few positions. I'm willing to lean on all that open trade equity then to get a lot more aggressive in that next wave. Does that make sense?
Yeah, no, no. So, just to kind of nail you down a little bit, you know, and I know this requires flexibility, you know, just getting back to your sports analogy, you know, sometimes the game starts one way and it changes, you know, in the second quarter, and things are very different. You know, maybe you, maybe you got an injury or something like that, and you have to adjust to those things. But are you, you, you said that sometimes you'll, you know, kind of concentrate a little bit more, sometimes you'll take the shotgun approach. Do you kind of use a cap to your portfolio in terms of exposure before you allow yourself to get, you know, further in? You've got to make money on the first 25%, let's say, before you put another 25% in? Do you have any rules like that?
So, I don't have hard rules, say, in terms of like scientific, statistical, like you just said. But if you were to do an analysis, it would probably break down that way. But mine is always that balance between, a good example would be, okay, if I'm 25% invested, to use your example, Justin, I'm not going to double up if I don't have any progress. Yeah, right? Like, so there's always, or caveat, a small caveat. Let's say I have a little bit of progress, but then we get a lot more. Maybe the market pulls back, consolidates, and all of a sudden there's a lot more ideas. Well, I might, I might add another 25, but I'm going to be really tight on those, on some of those adds, or I'm not going to take more principal risk. My goal is always, "Is there a way to lever up without just taking more risk?" That's the beauty of progressive exposure. You, you're trying to lean on, you know, and to your, I really liked your analogy, Justin, in terms of like, maybe by the second quarter, things aren't going the way you planned. Sometimes it does feel like you're jockeying for position. Yeah, you know, so whatever your sports or game analogy is, you've got to, you're looking for that point where you can get a little bit aggressive. You know, Mark Minervini, I sometimes call it "stomping on the accelerator." I'm not a race car driver, so I don't know what that, I have no idea actually what that feels like. But the idea, whatever your sport is, if you're any good at it, there's usually a period in the game where, you know, you can take a shot or be a little bit more aggressive. You know, I know guys who play golf, you know, regardless, you know, I'm not a great golfer either. It's the same. Poker players use different analogies. But it's, it's just that opportunity where you can, again, taking a little bit more risk, but looks responsible. And for me, that is always leaning on some form of, "I want, I want a cushion." You know, and for me, that cushion comes in the way of, ideally, some form of open P&L.
Yeah, well, I feel like a lot of times it's that asymmetry. You know, the reward potential is, you know, so much larger compared to the risk. You know, there, there's, there's got to be something about it, because if it's 50/50, then, well, what, what are you doing? You know? There's got to be some type of asymmetry, right?
And to use that, you know, I, I spoke with, I got asked to do some trade, trading teaching type thing a number of years ago, and Dr. Gio Valente, who's like a, I guess he's a famous swing golf swing coach, but he also, I think he worked at SAC Capital or some, one large hedge fund family, don't quote me on which one, at one point. And he said it was amazing to him after coaching golfers for many, many years, and then switching to high-performance, like, hedge fund traders and types, how similar the skill set was in terms of where he would watch a Tiger Woods be conservative, conservative, conservative, conservative, hole after hole after hole after hole, and then all of a sudden he would get really aggressive on a shot, or like once he was in, you know, once the stars kind of aligned in terms of how he was playing the game and playing the round, then he would get aggressive. And he said, "And I'd watch some of his portfolio managers, you know, jockey for," and then all of a sudden, you know, they're just taking big positions. And that resonated with me, where most of the time people think that, "Oh, so-and-so's a, you know, a good trader," or "they have good results," that they're just swinging these wild lines all the time, you know, or that it's this high-adrenaline deal all the time. It couldn't be more opposite. You know, most of the time, at least for me, sometimes you're just trading small size to get a feel. And, you know, then a few times, you know, ideally, you know, more often than not, in a, in a good year, then you get aggressive. So, it's sort of that learning how to, to stay, you know, off and on, "ride the break," you know, as I would say a lot of the times, and then "stomping the gas" at the right time. It's an art, though. And anybody, I do believe, can learn to do it. That's, I, I'm not naturally that, that kind of a, I'm not an adrenaline junkie, I'm not that kind of guy. And but I would also say, like, if you're drawn to this for that reason, you're going to have to learn to, learn how to use the brake to temper that. And I only, I only share that for folks who go, "Oh, I don't know, I don't know if I could learn to do that." No, you, given enough reps, that's where that confidence comes from to go, "Oh, I've seen this before. Maybe, maybe I can step it up a little bit now."
Now, Mark, going off the field, right, because you mentioned "field" there. Now, looking kind of at the larger market, we've had some terrible, terrible news, of course, this past weekend. But even before that, with some economic news, and, you, know, disappointing news there, and the market had every reason to sell off, but showed some resiliency. Are you looking at it kind of day by day, just seeing how the market reaction, to add to some of that analysis?
Certainly, and a really great transition. I think your point there about, well, backing up even prior to the bad news, terrible news we had over the weekend, right? Obviously, my, you know, deepest felt sentiment to anybody who has friends or family going on in the conflict. The reality was, prior to even that, I would say sentiment was pretty washed out, not like end of the world, but, you know, if you looked at AAII, NAIM, those kind of recycled put/call didn't spike to major panic levels, but definitely highest levels we've seen all year. Certainly, might even have been the highest on one of the readings, don't quote me on this, I didn't refresh it prior to this, that we've seen maybe even in the bear market. So, that's one of those, it just tells you in terms of the environment, that's the way I look at sentiment. Like, I don't like to time the market off sentiment, but it just sort of tells you, are we in that environment that feels like, "Okay, this is what, this is where bottoms are potentially close, maybe even in the short run." And to be clear, though, the reason I don't time off it is because we've had periods where that put/call spikes, and then, you know, the market could go quite a bit lower before we see the actual price low. You know, one of the things we talk about, sometimes you see a momentum low first, and then price makes a new low. So, I, I would, I'm not a bottom picker, I'm not trying to trade turns. I was talking to another, I won't mention his name, growth manager, you guys would know him if I did, and he and I were having dinner last week, and he was quite concerned about what he was seeing in the market with interest rates and just the way stocks were trading. And he goes, "We're either really close to a bottom, or it's going to get even uglier," well, at least in the short term, of course. Sure enough, we bottomed.
So then, okay, you get the accumulation day on Friday. Exactly. The way I would look at this is what you described to Arusha: bad news over the weekend. Well, I was very interested to see, one, do we get distribution on Monday? Look, for the last two months, any accumulation attempt within three to six days has been met with some kind of distribution. And you guys have been doing this long enough, and most of your viewers should probably know this, you know, after you get an accumulation day, if you, if it's immediately met with distribution, it kills, what are the stats? 80% of the time, four out of five, it kills that rally attempt. The way I think about it, that's just sort of the wet blanket, you know, like that distribution is, is that sign that there's just still supply sitting over the market. There's institutions waiting to, for whatever reason, waiting to sell. Well, you had plenty of reasons to, to lighten up Monday, and we opened lower, closed up. Now, again, in a vacuum, I'm not going to just say, "Throw caution to the wind," to start buying everything, but that's constructive. Yeah, it's not the news, it's the reaction to the news. That, that's as old as Wall Street. And there's always, there have been plenty of reasons not to buy or not to follow your plan. I like days like that where, even Monday, coming in, how many people, "War is breaking out in the Middle East." If their stocks breaking out, they're going, "Maybe I'll wait." I would have loved it even more if the few stocks that were breaking out just blasted off. We didn't really see this, you know, big liftoff. But, and, and I would love to see sentiment remain cautious to slightly negative, I mean, in perpetuity, to be honest. I mean, the longer people are skeptical, pessimistic, and negative, I mean, think of 2020, right? How many people just missed that whole run post-COVID because the world was ending, we were all going to die? And, you know, stocks had this just incredible run for the next, you know, eight months following, you know, the follow-through day we had in April, right? So, I'm rambling, but I, you know, I, I don't know if that, if that helps, or so, so let's, let's, let's take a break real quick. And then when we come back, we'll get a little bit more into this whole idea of sentiment, you know, and the emotions that get involved with it, and how you have to counterbalance those emotions. So, stay tuned, we'll be right back.
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Welcome back to Investing with IBD. It's Justin Nielson, your host here, and I am joined by Arusha Paris, who joins me every week. He's a portfolio manager over at O'Neil Global Advisors. And our special guest this week is Mark Ritchie. He is one of the featured traders in Momentum Masters. He works very closely with Mark Minervini, a great, great trader in his own right, and sharing a lot of the information that he's learned over his years. Let's talk a little bit more about this sentiment. We, we really talked about how there have been a number of reasons to be bearish lately. And certainly, when war broke out in the Middle East between Israel and Hamas, that was certainly another reason to just think, "Uncertainty," and how the market hates uncertainty. You've had the inflation, you've had the skyrocketing interest rates. All of these things that have kind of created this wall of worry. So, how do you, how do you combat that when the price action is telling you something different, Mark?
Well, and this is where process is kind of key, you know. Well, not "kind of," it is the key to keep you, keeping you, what I would say, insulated from the noise. And to your point, sentiment is bad. It's always bad at bottoms. That's what makes bottoms, you know. And, and even thinking about, I mentioned put/call, you know, you hear people say things like, "Well, the market's sold out." Well, that's essentially what, when, when everyone's running for puts and insurance, is usually when those insurance contracts don't pay. You know, and that thinking in terms of like even buying puts when volatility is high is a form of selling. That's people saying, saying, "Well, you know, rather than just puking all my positions, I'll just way overpay for put protection." When everyone's doing it at the same time, that, you know, that's that, it's, it's that psychology of, "There's nobody left to sell." They've already done all the selling.
Now, so normally in these type of environments, you know, sometimes that just means you get a snapback rally, and this is kind of where we are right now. You know, we've had, it's, let, let's be honest, we had an accumulation day that was, I would not say was overly impressive at this point. Here is where I want to see, can we get more, a little bit more firepower on, on the buy side? I'd like to see even another accumulation day. And, and then I'd love to see the sentiment stay negative, you know, or stay very pessimistic. If everybody all of a sudden, you know, just goes from one side of the boat to the other and becomes, you know, wildly bullish, again, that's usually, you know, not, not the best recipe. But to me, the best cocktail, if you will, is when sentiment stays pessimistic, you know, off of these bottoms, and then the market marks itself up, maybe in the general averages, but then you start to see more stock ideas, and people doubt them. You know, the breakouts no one else wants to buy are the ones I want to buy. You know, if everybody loves my ideas and thinks, you know, I look, "Okay, we got a war, we got high interest rates, you mentioned inflation. We got four reasons not to buy anything right now." Let's say we get a whole bunch of merchandise starting to break out of bases. Sign me up! I, I, I've got to be buying those. Doesn't mean they're going to work, but I can promise you, doing what other people aren't willing to do, and doing it repeatedly, will eventually lead to really good results. And that's, I think that's just good advice for life in general, you know, because the crowd's always wrong.
So, right now, though, specifically, yeah, let's just say hypothetically speaking, I've had the view that, you know, in order for equities to, to really get some traction, specifically growth, we're probably going to need to see rates come off, you know, prices, you know, yields come down, prices, you know, come up. You can look at the TLT specifically, you know, say for the, the long end of the curve, or you get the 10-year up. I mean, you can almost time the top in the summer to when this started breaking down, you know. Well, but I'm not going to be married to that view. So, let's say, here's a really good example: if I get so focused on rates where I go, "Well, I'm not going to buy any stocks until I see rates do X," am I trading rates or am I trading stocks? I'm trading stocks. So, and I actually think the best stocks are going to lead. So, the classic, what also why I don't like watching, don't take your cues from the index at first. Take it from the leading names. So, though, as you guys know, and I, and this is one of these, you can't say it enough to people that are new or even experienced, I, I'm saying it to myself, you know, it's like, I'm preaching to the converted here, you know, telling, telling myself, like, "You've got to take your cues from the individual names." Yeah, they're going to lead and break out. Maybe, maybe rates don't really top for another, I don't know, month, could be three months. But if the leading names are, are, are, are, you know, again, there's an intelligence at work in the market, I, I tend to think, they're telling you ahead of time, you know, this is what's, what's taking place. So, right, I, with a caveat, I will say, though, could I be dead wrong on, on all of this? And if I would be shocked if rates continue to surge higher and stocks were to break out. However, I'm still going to default to the stocks. Now, most likely that won't happen, but if it does, I don't have a rule that says, "Well, I can't buy, you know, a great cup and handle breakout on big volume, if rates are at X percent." That, that's not how my, that's not how my process works. The process says, "Screen for stocks, you know, buy, buy companies in the right groups with big earnings and high RS, you know, coming out of constructive right-hand sides of their chart." So, that, that's essentially what I'm going to do, regardless of what the sentiment and the other things say. And generally, the more contrarian the sentiment, the better it is for guys like us.
Yeah, so going off the sentiment, and when things are really bad news, I pulled up the NASDAQ chart back up here. Are you also looking at, like, maybe potential areas where the market could undercut a key support level and then rally off of it, so you're starting to shake out everyone and kind of get all that bad news out of the way?
Well, here's a good, here's a good example too, where, let's just say hypothetically speaking, since we have the NASDAQ up, maybe, maybe we, well, if we, if we were to come back and undercut the lows, say, from last week, most likely, not guaranteed, most likely any positions you bought are probably going to be under a good chunk of pressure, if not stopped out. Right, right. But there are times where maybe the overall market, like, you know, bring up a name like PDD. To me, this is sort of, you know, really good breakout on Friday. This, to me, looks like a potential key leader, at least coming off of this accumulation day. Well, if the market really got weak for some reason, and this stock just pulled back to the top of the breakout, this would be one, this would be the first name I'd be looking to buy once the market then, you know, puts in another accumulation day, or might even just buy the name if it, you know, puts in some type of pullback buy that looks constructive on low volume. Or maybe things just need more time to reset. And sometimes, back to the jockeying for position, you know, maybe we put in an accumulation day, then we get a distribution day, and it, it can be noisy and messy, you know, as, as we sort of carve out a reliable bottom. Or, like I said, maybe we've had a momentum low where the market, you know, really came down on strong momentum, prices in the index, you know, roll back over, maybe we undercut. But some of these names that are acting well, you know, the Duolingos, the PDDs, Synopsis, VRT, I'm just rattling off a few that are coming off. Even, even names like Meta, you know, in the mega-cap area, maybe they just put in more elongated right-hand sides, you know, where you get that positive divergence, if you will. Market makes new lows, but the leaders make higher lows. Maybe even get stopped on a few names, but you don't throw them off your watch list. And I've had, that's where you've got to be willing to, you know, bend with the market. Maybe you raise a little bit more cash, and you've got to get back in. But those are, I'd be looking in the exact same areas as I'm looking right now, and to see how they hold up. If we get distribution in the next two, three days, and all those names just come in, you know, and blow up the right side of their pivots, you just move right back to cash. You know, right? You just, you've got to, you know, take the paper cut, and move on. You know, to me, this is the old, "If I'm going down, it is going to be by a thousand paper cuts, not one big gash." And the only way to do that is the way I just described: cut them when they're small. Right? Best way to avoid big losses is to take small losses. If anybody's figured out another way, I'm all ears. Right?
What about the, the, what are the favorites of yours in terms of this whole sentiment idea? I, I mean, you mentioned the put/call ratio, when, when people are, you know, buying up those puts. To the same end, on the implied volatility, are you looking at the VIX, for instance, or, you know, what other sentiment indicators? You mentioned the AAII. What, what, what do you look at to kind of gauge things?
Yeah, for starters, I try not to have favorites in anything. And I don't, I, I don't, you know, I know that sounds kind of cliché, "Maybe you love all your children the same." Yeah, certainly, I love all my children the same. Well, but in the same way, I try not to get hung up on any one indicator. Yeah, you know, just like in the same way, I don't want to have a favorite stock, because then that's the, that's one of the big mistakes. You know, maybe you've got three names on your watch list, and I'm obsessed with the first one, so I don't buy the second one when it breaks out, and that one just blasts off. You know, this is where it's sort of like just trying to be open-minded, again, within a list of criteria. So, yeah, I don't, I don't have one, per se. It's, it's a blend, and usually they don't all scream "oversold" at the same time. VIX is a good example. You know, the VIX has been fairly contained, really, for this entire bear market. You know, we got to the high 20s, and every time that it comes off, and to me, this has just been the, the greatest example for why cash is your best friend, because everybody, I don't mean to dunk on other strategies, or that anybody who hedged with volatility has been disappointed, generally, over, over the last 12 to 18 months, because you never got that big puke where the VIX, you know, goes to 35 or 40 or 50. You know, it goes into the mid-20s and then just rolls back over. And it, it hasn't really provided, you know, the way some people, "Oh, I'll just hedge with volatility," you know. And the same way hedging with bonds has been a disaster, hedging with gold has not worked. Cash has been the, the best game in town to protect yourself. So, yeah, I, I, I tend to look at it, you know, as a blend between all three. And like I said before, though, any of the sentiment things are, it's really more of like measuring the larger weather environment, not a timing indicator. It just, it just sort of tells you where, you know, where you're at. But like, I would never say, "Well, because VIX didn't hit 25, we haven't bottomed," you know, or "because put/call didn't spike." It's just more indications in terms of where the environment is, you know, than anyone. But if I had to rank them, it would have got into my head, you know, I, I would say general sentiment, of any of the indicators we, we follow a bunch at MPA. You know, free ones, though. And Mark, what's MPA, just for?
Oh, sorry, Minervini Private Access.
But Investors Intelligence, AAII, or sorry, NAIM, and AAII both have free ones, you know, for folks that, those are good ones you can look at every week. You know, you can look at things like Fear and Greed as well. Those are free. And then, you know, put/call and VIX would be, you know, the other ones. I think if you use those in terms of a blend together, you're, you're not going to be too far off in terms of at least having, again, think of it like a weather vane, you know, you're going to know where the, the general vibe is in terms of bulls, bears. And to your point, you know, on the timing side, you, you mentioned this before, but I think it's worth repeating, you know, don't think just because it's, you know, really bad, you know, everything's looking horrible, that it can't get worse, you know, because sometimes people are like, "Oh, it can't get any worse," you know, and it's like, you'd be surprised, you know.
Well, that's a really good, really, really good. Yeah.
Well, this is, that's where, and really to stress, more so than anything, again, it is not my style, is not to catch bottoms or falling knives. And, and the reason I think Justin's point is really important is because often when you get these big waterfall slides, you know, from flash crash to COVID crash to the Volmageddon thing in 2018, you know, any of those big slides were almost always oversold, and then it gets really nasty. You know, and I use the analogy, like, everybody who calls for a crash right off of top tick doesn't know how markets work, right? The aircraft has to lose lift first, and then turn down, and then it goes into the, you know, the nose dive. And in every, almost every one of these environments, you know, like COVID was such a good example. I mean, sentiment and put/call, all these, everything we just talked about, got really bad, and then the bottom fell out. Yeah, you know, so it's like, unless you are willing to take an enormous amount of directional pain, I, I'm not sticking my neck out in front of any of those things. And remember, we caveat this whole thing by saying we had the accumulation day first, you know, coincident with these things hitting. And that is a much better, I, much, not much, I always want to wait for some form of confirmation before just sticking my neck out there. So, I think it's really important, especially if you're new, not to take any of these sentiment indicators as, "Oh, I should just buy because we're, you know, people are bearish."
Yeah, and, and, you know, there's the old saying about how sometimes, you know, it might seem irrational how, how much things have swung one way or the other, but the markets can stay more, can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent, you know, so, you know, very careful with that. But, hey, let's, let's go ahead and take a break. And when we come back, I think we can get into some of the stocks that are on your radar, and specifically what, you know, how you're kind of managing the early stages here, because I think that'll be instructive. Everyone wants to know how you handle a nascent rally. So, stay tuned, we'll be right back.
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Welcome back to Investing with IBD. It's Justin Nielson, your host here, and I am joined by Arusha Paris, who joins me every week. He's a portfolio manager over at O'Neil Global Advisors. And our special guest this week is Mark Ritchie. So, Mark Ritchie is actually going to be one of the co-presenters with Mark Minervini at an upcoming virtual summit. We've talked about this with Minervini a number of times. Arusha has been there for the live event. Scott St. Clair will be presenting, because this is something that is sponsored by MarketSmith. But it's one of those "drinking from the fire hose" type events where you're getting a lot of information. And so, before we get into some of these stocks, why don't you talk a little bit, Mark, about what people are going to learn at this event?
Everything from A to Z is, is sort of as we like to say, and the "fire hose" analogy, there isn't a better one, because there's a lot of information. Look, this is an event I attended eight, or seven or eight times, before being asked to be even a small guest presenter. It's a real honor, obviously, to, you know, be co-presenting. I'm more like occasional color commentator. You know, Mark, Mark's driving, you know, most of the content, because it's basically, if you will, kind of like his life's work put into, you know, a weekend seminar. I think somebody else said, you know, in a lot of ways, it's, it's like a more surgical approach to, say, a lot of the things that, you know, IBD and O'Neil and, you know, sort of the growth stock investing family focus on. Look, I've never heard anybody give a bad review of it. I, I, like I said before, enjoy it because it's just like talking to you guys. It reinforces, you know, your sort of own worldview and strategy and the way you look at the market, keeps you sharp and prepared. I know people that have come repeatedly. I was one of those. I've got stacks of manuals full of notes from all the years I went. I would never put my name on something, you know, that I don't use myself, you know, as I like to often say, "You know, I eat the sausage I'm preparing," or "eat my own cooking." And, and the other thing I will add for those, you know, new feature this year is, if you do come, there's a free in-person event then in November for, for anyone who, you know, chooses to attend, which I think is a great new feature, because I know a lot of people still want to get together in person. I am in that camp as well. So, for anybody who signs up and goes, "I'd still like to, you know, meet people and shake hands and ask questions in person," great, we're going to do that too. So, that's kind of a neat new feature that we're doing this year. And I'm sure people can find more information on this probably on your Twitter feed, or formerly known as Twitter X. And that is Mark Ritchie, M.A.R.K. R.I.T.C.H.I.E. with an underscore and then two capital I's. Where, where else can they go?
Just mv.com, Minervini.com. Yeah, obviously, you know, Mark's Twitter as well, which is @MarkMinervini. So, yeah, any one of those places. And you'll, and you'll probably see ads for it on investors.com if you haven't already, because again, this is something sponsored by MarketSmith. So, Arusha, you've been there. Do anything that you wanted to add?
Yeah, you know, I, I would, if you're interested in, I, I would definitely, I highly, highly recommend it. Yes, I went a few, I went a couple years in person, which was unlike any other, and that's, that's where I met Mark here. But, the online version, I think, is even more, because it really is "drinking from a fire hose." The, the in-person, it was just non-stop, 10 to 12 hours a day for three days.
And uh, you, you learn everything you know. Mark Minini takes all the time in the world to just go step by step. Uh, and but the online version where they break it up and it's, it's two weekends, right? Right, Mark? Where kind of, yeah, yeah, that's a really good point, AR. I'm glad you brought it up. So the, yeah, the original one was a, you know, three full days of the weekend, then a live trading day on Monday. Now it's broken up into two different weekends. But so there's a five-hour, four to five-hour section each day and then a replay as well, which a lot of people, you know, some people listen to the live and the replay as well. Plus, because with people all around the world tuning in, depending on your time zone. And then there's going to be two live Q&A sessions prior to the live trading day, which will then be the following Monday. So yes, and it starts this, this Saturday. Um, so you get a little bit, uh, a little bit more time, uh, if you will, to process the sections rather than, you know, a 10 to 12-hour day is a long day to learn. Uh, and even the research suggests if you do it in smaller chunks, you retain. Starts leaking out at a, at a certain point, right? For sure, for sure. Yeah, yeah. But I think also, Mark, what Mark mentioned with the, the in-person, uh, I think that's an added bonus. If you can go to that, definitely do. Honestly, I was, I was trying to come this year just to see everybody, but I, I'm, I'm unable to make it. But I, I, in the, in years in the future, uh, next year or something like that, I definitely want to go because, uh, I really enjoyed, uh, meeting everybody and, and there's a certain energy to the event. And, and you're definitely not going to regret going. You're going to learn a ton. And so, yeah, as I said, I highly, highly recommend it.
Well, let's get into some stocks, uh, shall we? Um, you were kind of talking a little bit about, uh, how you're kind of breaking up the stocks that are, uh, out there right now into a few different areas. So, how are you viewing these stocks right, right now? Right. So, yeah, I would start, I mean, we can, we can start with the biggest, if you want, in terms of, you know, the mega-cap area, because it's been, it has been that dominant area to be honest. Caveat what I'm about to say, if the mega-caps were to stall here, I could. So I want to make, I'm saying this for two reasons. One is, you always want to have, you always want to have scenarios in your head of how things could play out. Yeah. And you don't want to be too narrow-minded. And, you know, so that if something surprises you, as my dad used to say, you know, the minute you're surprised, you're a part of the crowd. Uh, and that's where you, you don't want to be, because the crowd's always wrong. Uh, you want, you want to be able to think, you know, uh, you know, independently, if you will. So don't get hung up on, you know, any one area. But I definitely wouldn't get hung up on the mega-caps, because if money rotates out of those and other names start working, that would, that's the best scenario in my opinion. That said, uh, you know, of the, of the stocks that have held up the best, I mean, you've got to look at Meta. Um, obviously, you know, that was broke out of a nice pivot on Friday, uh, followed through so far this week. Uh, you know, I, you guys pointed it out perfectly. I mean, that's a nice little base right there. Uh, and look, the reality is, even an orderly pullback, uh, I think is potentially buyable here. It's extended right now. I wouldn't, I wouldn't buy it. But and Nvidia is the other one, obviously, everybody's, you know, favorite from earlier in the year in the mega-cap space. If this can put in somewhat of a, of a right-hand side, it's just held up so well. Obviously, everybody knows the story here, it's not a secret. Um, but that doesn't mean it won't work. Uh, so, and, and I think, yeah, those are the two I'd be watching. I think if they both crack hard with the market, you know, that would be, you know, your, your sign that the rally is certainly, you know, not working. Uh, or, or probably, you know, we might be retesting or even undercutting lows. So those are, those are the two mega-caps right now.
Since we're talking about mega-caps, uh, why don't we throw Alphabet into the mix? You know, because again, this, you know, it feels like Meta, you know, Nvidia, and Alphabet were kind of a little different in that they were holding above their 50-day moving average lines a little bit better than the indexes. So, uh, do you kind of, uh, put this in the same camp or not? And if not, why not? Yeah, certainly. Uh, this is one actually, the, the NBA platforms had a small, or have been recommending kind of a small position in this for a bit as well. So, uh, yeah, I only didn't mention it just because, uh, it hasn't, doesn't have, you know, as much of a pivot at this point, right? But this is also from, from my understanding too, again, even looking at the fundamental side, because this held up really well, even into that last pullback, you can see it did make an incremental higher low versus the prior. Um, I think this is your sort of AI sympathy play in some regards too, because who has all the data that is going to be feeding these AI, you know, learning machines? It's, you know, Google. Uh, so at least that's my understanding. The fun, you're absolutely right though, Justin. It's holding up really well. Orderly pullback here is potentially viable. The reason I personally don't like the mega-caps is just one, my record is not as good, and, and there's just not as much juice generally in the mega-caps. You know, I did, I did, uh, full disclosure, trade Nvidia pretty well earlier in the year, caught a good chunk of that move. Um, and I got out when it sort of took out the 50, looking to get back in. Um, and I don't own, uh, any of these right now. So, you know, full disclosure, they're just, they're the best of that group. Uh, and, you know, as we've been calling it, sort of, look, sometimes in trading, there you have to take the mentality, you've got to trade what's, what's in front of you. You know, a lot of people complain, oh, you know, I don't, I don't like the market, or they argue with the market. It's like, just try and trade what's in front of you. So I've been calling these sort of, if you can't beat them, join them, you know, trades when, when they set up. Uh, you can trade them. And so that, that's kind of how I would handle it. Uh, and those are, yeah, those are your three to at least keep an eye on right now.
Um, as far as like more the classic growth names, PDD, already mentioned, I would definitely be watching that name. Uh, it looks really good. Look at it on a weekly, it's a really nice, uh, cup and handle. And, and Mark, maybe talk about the using this as a gauge on the market too? Well, you know, so what I like to do sometimes is at least, you know, there's an old saying, it doesn't come from markets, but like, I'm not going to define it, but I know it when I see it. Uh, and this, this just has that. I won't get into what talking. Yeah, right. Um, but this has the look, if you will, to quote even some like David Ryan and Mark Minervini. Oftentimes, they get questions when I was younger in this, and they'd be like, it just doesn't have the look. Yeah. That comes from two guys who've literally looked at millions of charts and have those classic, uh, you know, analogues of what a key leader potentially looks like. Well, it's coming out, coming out of a cup and handle, uh, good earnings and sales on the table, and it's in one of those classic growth, you know, tech retail type areas. So it's checking all the boxes. It's one of the first ones to come out on an accumulation day. Uh, so in my mind, if this fails, uh, it's a bad sign. You know, I'm not, now, again, I'm not going to marry my whole, if this fails, and I got three other names that are working great, I'm, I'm going with the balance of evidence. Uh, but generally, I, you know, this is the type of position though, I would want to either look to to get involved in a pullback if I don't own it, or maybe it sets up again higher and I get aggressive there. And there have been plenty of leaders that I've missed the first buy that I've then caught, you know, for other pieces of the move. And, and so don't, don't also be dis. Maybe you haven't bought anything yet, that's okay. Uh, you, you wait for subsequent, you know, low-risk entry points. The other point I would make though, is a name like this, I would not be just chasing here, uh, because normal, a normal pullback will then knock you out if you're using tighter stops, which is, you know, my default. So I don't want abnormal or normal price action to knock me out. I want abnormal. So that's kind of how I, I view that one.
Arusha, the other name, or a couple other names I can. Before you move on to this one, I just want to have you quickly address the, the China risk. I mean, China was kind of a, a little bit of persona non grata for a while, the Chinese stocks. Um, so, you know, they were, they were kind of put in the penalty box between, you know, what was going on with, you know, Alibaba and the, you know, and, and Ma, and, you know, then it was delisting fears, then I mean, it was just one thing after another. Um, do you think China is, is, is okay now? Because certainly, uh, PDD has that risk. Yeah. Well, I'm, I'm obviously not going to make a firm commitment on my view of China overall. And you make a really good point, like, you know, listen, would I take a huge position in a name like that where there's potential headline risk? No, I wouldn't. Um, however, I, I generally like the fact again, that all that bad news out of China, and here's, here's a stock that is setting up really constructively. Yeah. There were also the Luckin Coffee type situations, which some, some growth folks remember, maybe even painfully, you know, where all of a sudden somebody does a short report, realizes they've been fudging numbers, and that type of thing. So certainly, yeah, that needs to be, um, taken into effect. Same way, you know, I think it's sometimes the Chinese names, maybe even like a biotech, where it's like, you know, you just got, you have to have that in the back of your mind that there is gap, there's more gap risk in a name like this, you know, than say another one. Um, but generally, of course, Mark, Luckin Coffee is kind of back. Yeah, yeah, exactly. Back from the dead, right? But this one, I, I actually own shares of PDD. I refuse to touch Luck. Yeah, I'm not, I'm not touching this one either. P me once. I was using that as an example of something that got absolutely murdered on that type of news. So yeah, look, look, the, even the irony though, with the Luckin Coffee is before that happened, if memory serves me correct, Arusha, the price was, was acting poorly. So here, you know, PDD is opposite. You know, price is acting quite constructively. So, uh, yeah, I'm gonna, I'm gonna default to the price action, uh, and then adjust from there.
Okay, so with that out of the way, you were gonna, you were about to move on to another one. Well, yeah, I mean, so one of the names I, I did buy was, you know, like I said, Duolingo. This is, this would be, you know, or PDD, you know, is a type of setup where, would be like a default meaning it's, it's a lower, Mark, a smaller, not real very small, more in the mid-cap, smaller cap growth area. Duolingo specifically though, if you look at a weekly, it's almost like a large primary type base, what we would call it. It's sort of almost first buyable base where this went IPO, you know, almost right at the peak of the market. Yeah. You know, got killed with everything else, and now it's slowly worked its way back. It bottomed even well ahead of the general market. I liked that last summer. Uh, it's been trying to put in some type of a right-hand side. I wouldn't call it perfect. Uh, coincident with earnings starting to come in. Uh, I mean, it just, that's it. Has a sort of classic potential blueprint where if the market has bottomed, this is a stock I would expect that could move meaningfully higher, you know, over coming, you know, weeks or months. So this is where again, I'm going to default to this kind of area because this is, you know, what we would consider a magnitude type play, where, you know, how many of these when a stock is in a, to quote Jesse Livermore's, "Stocks IPO," this is from his book, "How to Trade in Stocks," back in 1940, you know, it trades lower. Uh, it is, it is usually a good buy to to buy it when it hits new highs, you know, say even many years later. Why? Because the market is telling you that, you know, this, this stock specifically is now price ready, you know, or there's something going on fundamentally in the company that has really improved. Well, how many stocks IPO'd in '21 that have just gotten, you know, they look completely opposite? You know, they're just, they're just, you know, got absolutely pancaked. So does it mean it's going to work? No, of course not. That's what risk management is for. And then you go back to the daily, we've got, you know, pretty tight right-hand side here. This one's still potentially, even as it pulls back into say that little blue shaded area, I think, uh, you know, the one, the 160, certainly down to the mid-150 level should hold. So you can back into a risk area against there. Best case scenario would be it just keeps ripping, uh, and doesn't give anybody a chance to get on board, of course. Uh, that's the other thing I have to say, if it's a key leader, it probably not going to give you lots of shots in the early going to grab a hold of it. Um, so again, small position for me right now. Um, should it continue to hold well, these are the type of areas though, where again, you know, even taking the group, this is where your some of your big winners come from. You know, it's, it's technology meets retail for those who, you know, understand the company a little bit. Okay, learning a second language, but they're using, you know, complicated tech in order to do that. I guess they're also getting into teaching people music and other topics. Think of even where have we moved as a culture post-COVID? Learning online, all these types of things. Well, that, that plays right into these guys' wheelhouse. Does that mean the earnings and sales are going to continue? No, but right now they're starting to show up on the table. Well, and what, what do we see with the price? Seems to be collaborating. Yeah.
Now, one, one thing on this, uh, if you could just address, and, and by the way, I do own shares of this myself, and I might add, I got my 365-day streak on Duolingo recently for Spanish, of course. Yes. Um, you know, this had a breakout out of a double bottom, you know, past that 162 pivot, not too long, and then like immediately failed. So talk a little bit about how sometimes you've got to buy them back, you know, after getting shaken out. Great point. I mean, I'm in, I'm the one getting shaken out often. I like to, I'm putting in the shakeout sometimes, you know, uh, that's what it means to be a weak holder. The key is to to try and then reposition yourself, you know, or as Mark Minervini would say, you want to try and be the last weak holder. You know, you want to be the guy, if you're on the platform at the train station, I'm stepping on that train, the M as it's leaving the station, you're grabbing the rail and getting on board, you know, and if it stops, you just hop right back off. Uh, it's funny, Justin, you mentioned that because I played this one, uh, even a little earlier, you know, sort of, I want to say, you know, May, May, June area. Yeah, as it was trying to come out, there wasn't quite ready. It's, it's undercut a few times. Uh, yeah, we may even get shaken out here again. You got to have a plan to get back on board. That's the key. Anytime, look, if you're gonna, if you're gonna play with, you know, be a directional trader with tighter stops, you're always going to have to have a plan for re-entry because you're gonna get shaken out. Uh, and then not, not think that the stock hates you, uh, or I can't buy that one again. Often the subsequent re-buy is the better buy. Yeah, uh, be for precisely that reason. It has knocked out the weak hands, and now, you know, that supply has been gobbled up by the strong hands, and it's more likely to move in your direction.
Um, what, let's see, what do you have next? Uh, was Synopsis also on your, on your radar? Synopsis was another one. So this was, this was one I, I actually was considering buying on Friday. I mean, look, you've got a nice tightening, uh, you sort of have a couple of contractions there, got really tight. Um, broke out. Uh, you know, this is another one I would say fundamentals aren't quite as strong in terms of on the table. Um, but, you know, classic breakout, good relative strength. Another one I'd be looking, you know, to buy either a subsequent orderly pullback or maybe it's, maybe it's got to wait and it has to set up, uh, an entirely another pivot or base. Yeah.
Now, you also talked a little bit, uh, during the break about cyclicals, kind of in that same, if you can't beat them, join them. And it's, uh, the last couple of years, I feel like I, between the fertilizers, then the oils, you know, there have been a lot of, uh, interest in the cyclicals lately. How do you, how do you play those? Because it's certainly out of the normal growth wheelhouse. Yeah, great point. And it's funny because, at the risk of talking out of both sides of my mouth, I, I have always discounted the cyclical area myself, uh, mainly for one reason only, and that's because if, as I've studied my own results, and this is something I encourage everybody to do, we do go over this at the seminar as well, how to do, how to do that properly, I just noticed that my record in the cyclicals, the oils, the papers, chemicals, you mentioned fertilizers, you know, uh, even commodities, is not as good, you know, say as the classic growth, you know, groups, consumer, retail, leisure, entertainment, technology, biotech. You know, that's where I've, I've made the lion's share. However, over the past year, that's changed a little bit. Why? Because that's what's been setting up. Will still say though, it hasn't, it's, it's trickier. And I tend to even like to buy, I've noticed that buying the cyclical, even say as they're breaking out to new highs, is not, uh, doesn't have as much positive expectancy for me as say, even buying them in the base or lower in the base, because often as they're making new highs is when folks are taking profits, and it, it seems to be a little trickier. But yeah, what I would say is, I think you still have to keep a few of them potentially on your radar if you want to trade them. And the names I'd own, Tidewater, TDW, definitely, one of the strongest in sort of the oil services area, broke out of that nice base back in June. Uh, I got tagged coming out of the, the 50 last week when the world looked like it was really nasty. Of course, you could say, ah, shouldn't give, should have get a little more room. I, I never think that way. Um, I'm just looking for a potential re-entry if were it to set up. This name, and Valaris, VAL, is the other one that I had a position in. Uh, I really like this name as well, even technically. Look, the fundamentals in both these stories is kind of the same. Um, and I, I like this, at least because it's sort of, this is a newer issue, a year and a half ago, coming out of bankruptcy. The play here fundamentally is, look, if oil prices are going to stay high to higher, these guys own all the, and, and inflation as well, these guys own all the equipment and servicing stuff, whether it's drill rigs, jackups, all this kind of stuff. And guess what? All that equipment is already bought and paid for. And with inflation being what it is, their prices are only going up. And to lease, buy, create new rigs is going to cost multiples of what it was a couple of years ago. So they have all the pricing power. If you look at the estimates, you know, for both of these companies, they look quite good. Well, uh, I, I think it's just an area to watch again. I wouldn't be going wild here. U, but for those even looking, you know, it's some of, you know, say the biggest winners from the old, like O'Neill chart books, there are some oils and things like that in the '70s. So if we're going to have like, you know, sort of inflation back and forth and persistent, it's just an area to keep an eye on. The other area, or other stock I did have a big position in later in the year was cyclical was CCJ in the uranium space. Um, it's, it's pulling. I, I would wait for this one, but that's another one, at least, you know, that the earnings were coming in on the table, came out of that big base. I think if it can, you know, put in a constructive pivot here, Um, I wouldn't get married to any of the fundamentals without technical confirmation on anything specifically cyclicals, but it's one of those where again, if they set up, uh, those are, those are a few I'd at least keep on a secondary watch list to potentially trade. U, the other thing I would add though, in terms of cyclical, I've noticed that I've done the best when there's not just one name. Yeah. So it's when there's a group. You know, it's almost like you're, you're going through your work, and then it's like, dang it, these oil names keep popping out. You know, you're, it's like, all right, I guess, you know, that, that's the sign in my mind. And that's sort of been my experience even in precious metals, gold specifically. I've had limited success, but the times I've had, I've made some good money in gold is when, you know, you run through the relative strength list, and there's lots of gold names. Yeah. By the way, gold's a huge void right now in my opinion. But that, that's just like when you see that theme, that's when I go, okay, I can't beat him, join them. You know, and, and put, put some, uh, money to work in those areas again, assuming they're good low-risk entry points that, uh, you know, meet good technical valid criteria. Yeah.
Well, hey, really appreciate you, uh, walking through all of that. And I think you've given a lot of people some really great names to consider and, and think about. And hopefully, uh, the, the patterns that you're talking about, and again, the idea of when things are extended and how to be patient, all of those things, I hope, uh, the audience can take away from this, because that's, that's some of the most important stuff. It's not just about, you know, getting it at, as Mark Minervini often says, it's not getting it at the lowest price, but getting it at the best price. So, uh, Mark Richie, thanks a lot for coming on. Really appreciate it, man. It was great having you guys. Uh, it's always fun to talk stocks with you both. Really appreciate it. And thanks for all the good questions. Yeah, absolutely. And, uh, again, for folks that want to, uh, see Mark Richie on that virtual summit, uh, you've got the, uh, event coming up this weekend, the MinV event. And, uh, you can find more information on that at minv.com. For those watching the video at investors.com podcast, you probably also saw a nice little clip showing, um, showing the, uh, pretty little pictures of, uh, exactly, uh, what's, what's happening and what's, uh, what, what you're getting with that, that that function. So thanks a lot for watching us this week. Please join us next week. We're going to have Brian Shannon back on the show, of course, he's from Alpha Trends, and he is our master of the volume-weighted average price. So we'll be talking VWAP with him and see what his, uh, take on the current market is. Hope you join us. Take care.