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DISTINGUISHED PSYCHOLOGICALLARD ON IRAN. WHAT DO YOU MAKE OF THE NARRATIVE COMING OUT OF IRAN? NOW A NOT A COMPLETE BLACKOUT OF INFORMATION THANKS TO ELON MUSKS. HOW MUCH CLARITY DO WE HAVE OF WHAT'S HAPPENING ON THE GROUND?
THE CLAMPDOWN OF THE INTERNET WAS EXTREMELY FIRST QUARTER INCLUDING THE JAMMING OF STAR LINK WHICH MADE SURE VERY LITTLE INFORMATION CAME OUT. NOW AFTER THEY APPARENTLY BELIEVE THEY HAVE MANAGED TO CLAMP DOWN AND REDUCE THE INTENSITY OF THE PROTESTS, AFTER THE LAST TWO DAYS THERE HAVEN'T BEEN MUCH AT ALL PARTICULARLY THE TEHERAN. THEY ARE TALKING ABOUT POTENTIALLY OPENING IT UP A LITTLE BIT.
THE PICTURE THAT IS EMERGING IS ONE WHERE THE GOVERNMENT HAS USED A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF FORCE AND VIOLENCE TO CLAMP DOWN. AT THE SAME TIME IT IS ALSO AN ESTIMATE OF THE U.S. GOVERNMENT THAT HOW MANY POLICE OFFICERS HAVE BEEN KILLED AS WELL. I THINK THAT IS SUGGESTING THAT THERE ARE ELEMENTS OF THE PROTESTERS AS WELL WHO ARE USING SIGNIFICANT VIOLENCE. THIS RATIO WE HAVE NEVER SEEN BEFORE IN IRAN. AND THERE IS AGAIN A CLEAR INDICATION THE IRANIAN GOVERNMENT DID NOT GIVE THE -- WHATSOEVER BY TRUMP'S RED LINE. AND BUT AT THE SAME TIME EVEN IF THEY MANAGED TO CLAMP DOWN AND THE PROTESTS DIE DOWN, IT IS PROBABLY TEMPORARY BECAUSE THE UNDERLYING FACTORS DRIVING PEOPLE OUT ON THE STREETS AND CAUSING THEM TO PROTEST HAVE NOT BEEN ADDRESSED AND PROBABLY CANNOT BE ADDRESSED UNLESS THERE IS SOME SORT OF SANCTIONS.
HASLINDA: DOES IT MAKE U.S. INTERVENTION LIKELY IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND HOW WOULD THE U.S. INTERVENE? WHAT'LL IT TARGET?
I THINK WE SHOULD BE VERY CLEAR. INTERVENTION IS NOT GOING TO TAKE PLACE AS A RESULT OF TRYING TO PROTECT THE PROTESTERS. THERE MAY BE SOME SPIN AROUND THAT. THERE MAY BE SOME SPIN IN WHICH THAT WILL HAPPEN. I DOUBT THAT. PLANS TO ATTACK WERE COMING LONG BEFORE THESE PROTESTS. NETANYAHU VISITED TRUMP DECEMBER 29. STAYED FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS AND AT THE TOP OF THE DISCUSSIONS ISRAELIS WANTED THE U.S. TO ATTACK IRAN OR HELP ISRAEL TO ATTACK AGAIN BECAUSE THE LAST WAR IN JUNE WAS ULTIMATELY FAILURE FOR THE ISRAELIS. THEY WERE ITCHING TO RESTART THE FIGHT. TRUMP SHIFTED THE FAVORITE IN AND STARTED TALKING ABOUT PROTECTING THE PROTESTERS. IF THERE ARE STRIKES THEY WILL BE TARGETING THE NUCLEAR FACILITIES AND MISSILE FACILITIES, ETC., PROBABLY GOING AFTER TOP LEADERSHIP. WHETHER THAT HELPS THE PROTESTS OR NOT IS FRANKLY NOT THE KEY OBJECTIVE HERE FOR THE UNITED STATES.
HASLINDA: THE THING IS PEOPLE WERE QUICK TO POINT OUT THAT THE REGIME WILL BE COLLAPSING THIS TIME IS DIFFERENT FROM THE LAST. HOW VULNERABLE REALLY IS THE IRANIAN REGIME RIGHT NOW?
WITHOUT A DOUBT THIS LOOKS VERY DIFFERENT FROM PREVIOUS PROTESTS BUT I THINK IT IS ALSO VERY -- PREVIOUS PROTESTS BUT IT IS VERY CLEAR THAT THEY SEE THIS AS AN EXISTENTIAL BATTLE, AS A RESULT USING A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF FORCE. WE HAVE NOT SEEN TRUMP'S THREATS VIOLENCE SEEMS TO HAVE CONSOLIDATED THE REGIME. THE IRANIAN ARMY DIFFERENT FROM THE REVOLUTIONARY GUARDS IS NONPOLITICIZED REFUSED TO PARTAKE IN CLAMPDOWNS AGAINST PROTESTERS. WHEN THEY HAVE BEEN ASKED TO, THEY REFUSED TO DO SO THEY SAID THEY ARE GOING TO BE INVOLVED TAKING OUT TERRORIST CELLS INSIDE THE COUNTRY. I THINK THAT SUGGESTS THAT THE ARMY AS A WHOLE SEES THE PROTESTERS BEING INTERTWINED WITH WHAT THE ARMIES ARE PER SE SEEING MINDFUL OF THE THREATS FROM WASHINGTON AND ISRAEL.
HASLINDA: WHAT ARE THE CHANCES THAT WE COULD SEE A REGIME THAT IS MORE HARDENED, WE MIGHT SEE A RESHUFFLE OF THE TOP BUT BASICALLY A HARDENED STATUS QUO. WHAT IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF THAT HAPPENING AND HOW CONCERNED ARE YOU THAT MIGHT HAPPEN?
IF THE REGIME WERE TO FALL, THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT IT WOULD BE THE SON OF THE FORMER SHAH, OR AN ELEMENT OF THAT KIND FROM THE OUTSIDE. THAT WOULD THAT COULD VERY WELL BE OR MORE LIKELY WOULD BE MORE HARD LINED ELEMENTS. THAT IS A CONCERN THAT EXISTED WITHIN THE U.S. GOVERNMENT. NOT THAT THERE IS ANY FUZZY FEELINGS ABOUT THIS CURRENT REGIME BUT WHAT LIKELY WILL REPLACE IT MAY BE A HARDENED VERSION OF THE SAME REGIME.
HASLINDA: IRAN SAYS IT WILL RETALIATE IF THE U.S. FORCES ATTACK. WHAT FORM MIGHT THEY TAKE? WHAT LEVERAGE DOES IT HAVE?
THEY SAID IN THE PAST THEY WOULD RETALIATE BUT DIDN'T. INSTEAD THEY DID SIMPLE BALLISTIC STRIKES. MADE SURE THE U.S. EMPTIED THEIR BASES AND AN EMPTY BASE ESSENTIALLY. THIS TIME AROUND IT SEEMS THAT MAY NOT BE THE CASE. THEY ACTUALLY WILL STRIKE. THEY HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF STRIKING U.S. BASES. THEIR MISSILES WERE EFFECTIVE IN PENETRATING ISRAEL AND AMERICA'S AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS. THIS IS NOT SOMETHING THAT WILL NOT BE A BLOODY AFFAIR. THERE IS A REALIZATION ON THE IRANIAN SIDE, PERHAPS NOT ON THE AMERICAN SIDE THAT THE IRANIANS PROBABLY KNOW THEY CANNOT WIN A WAR AGAINST THE UNITED STATES. HOWEVER, ALL THEY NEED TO DO IS TO MAKE SURE THAT THEY DESTROY TRUMP'S PRESIDENCY BEFORE THEY LOSE. THAT'S A VERY DIFFERENT PROPOSITION. A COUPLE OF WEEKS OF WAR WITH INTENSE CASUALTY RATES ON THE AMERICAN SIDE, EVEN THOUGH THE IRANIANS WILL TAKE FAR GREATER HITS WILL PROBABLY BE ENOUGH TO DESTROY TRUMP'S PRESIDENCY.
HASLINDA: AND IT COULD ALSO PERHAPS TARGET THE STRAITS OF HORMUZ.
IT WOULD NOT BE ABLE TO REMAIN CLOSED. WE ARE SEEING THAT NOW CLOSING THE STRAITS MAY NOT BE AS CUMBERSOME OF AN EFFORT AS EFFORTED A 20 YEARS AGO BECAUSE NOW THEY CAN USE -- CUMBERSOME OF AN EFFORT. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT SHIPS WILL STOP GOING THROUGH THE STRAITS TO A LARGE EXTENT BECAUSE THE RISK IS TOO HIGH. THE INSURANCE COST WILL BE TOO HIGH. EVEN BY NOT HITTING ANY SHIPS THEY COULD STILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO THE OIL MARKETS.
HASLINDA: WE KNOW THAT KHOMEINI STILL HOLDS ABSOLUTE POWER. WHERE DO THE SITES STAND AND HOW MIGHT THAT INFLUENCE WHAT ACTIONS ARE TAKEN BY IRAN?
THE IRANIAN SYSTEM IS NOT LIKE SOME OF THESE OTHER COUNTRIES SUCH AS IRAQ OR LIBYA OR VENEZUELA IN WHICH ALL OF THE -- IRAQ OR LIBYA OR VENEZUELA. ALL THE POWER IS AT THE TOP. POWER IS DISPERSED THROUGHOUT THE SYSTEM WHICH MAKES AN EFFORT OF TAKING OUT THE TOP LEADERSHIP OR REPLACING IT A LITTLE BIT MORE DIFFICULT THAN IT WOULD BE IN THE CASE OF VENEZUELA AND YOU KNOW, TAKING OUT MADURO OR ARRESTING HIM, KIDNAPPING, WHATEVER VERB YOU WANT TO USE COULD CAUSE A COLLAPSE THE U.S. NEGOTIATOR. SUCH A SCENARIO IS MUCH MUCH MORE COMPLICATED. TAKING OUT SADDAM WAS SUFFICIENT FOR THE ENTIRE STATE TO COLLAPSE.
HASLINDA: AT SOME POINT THE ISRAEL LOBBY IN WASHINGTON. HOW MIGHT ISRAEL INFLUENCE WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?
THE ISRAELIS ARE EXTREMELY ACTIVE NOW PUSHING TRUMP TO TAKE FULL MILITARY ACTION AGAINST IRAN. THEY SAID THAT JUST AS ISRAEL BOMBED SYRIA AFTER -- 20 MINUTES AFTER ASSAD WAS ON THE PLANE TO RUSSIA THEY BEGAN BOMBING EVERYTHING IN SYRIA THAT HAS MILITARY IMPORTANCE AND THEY HOPE THE UNITED STATES WOULD DO THE SAME WITH IRAN AFTER THE REGIME FALLS. THIS IS NOT JUST CHANGING REGIME AND HOPING THAT IRAN HAS A DEMOCRACY. THIS IS ABOUT TAKING OUT IRAN'S CAPABILITIES TO CHALLENGE ISRAEL'S DOMINANCE IN THE REGION. THAT IS SOMETHING THAT THE ISRAELIS WILL PURSUE WHETHER THERE IS A DEMOCRACY OR A DIFFERENT VARIATION OF THIS REGIME.
HASLINDA: BEFORE WE LET YOU GO, WHAT ARE YOU FOCUSING ON? WHAT DO YOU SEE HAPPENING IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS?
I THINK THE MOST IMPORTANT THING THAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, WE'LL SEE IF TRUMP FINALIZES A DECISION TO STRIKE. HOW THERE WILL BE OR WHEREVER WEATHER HE WILL FIND AN EXIT OUT OF THIS. HE IS AT THE END OF THE DAY INCLINED TO DO THINGS THAT ARE BIG AND BOLD BUT AT THE SAME TIME HE WANTS TO AVOID MESSY SITUATION IN WHICH HE DOESN'T HAVE A CLEAR QUICK VICTORY DOESN'T HAVE A CLEAR EXIT PLAN IF IT DOESN'T WORK OUT SO IT IS A TOUGH SELL FOR THOSE PUSHING HIM TO DO THIS, PARTICULARLY WHEN IT ASSIGNS LIKE THE SITUATION IN IRAN IS MUCH MORE MESSY THAN I THINK THE U.S. ASSESSMENT WAS EARLIER ON.