Cycle Trading with Andrew (@GoldnGuitars)

Warning: This video and all other videos on this channel are for entertainment purposes only. The content of this video and all other videos on this channel are the opinions of the Creator only and do not constitute legal, trading, investment, or financial advice of any kind. Investing carries a high level of risk, and the majority of retail clients lose money. Do not invest capital unless you understand the risk and you are prepared to lose it all.

Hi Andrew, thank you for being here. I really appreciate it and I am looking forward to seeing what you've got to present today as a cycle trader. So, I mean, if you want to plug anything, Twitter or anything like that, please feel free. And, uh, if you want to introduce yourself.

All right, awesome. Well, thanks for having me. I appreciate being on here and getting to share my ideas with your audience. Um, so, um, Andrew, my, on Twitter is Gold and Guars. Uh, and so I thought since that's my name, I would kind of share, um, something that I've been following for the last year or so, uh, as it's been developing. So this is the GLD to SPX chart. Um, I have GLD divided by SPX just to see where the trends are moving. So we can kind of see that if you look at the years back since we had a big gold top at the end of 2011, SPX has just been absolutely, uh, destroying, uh, gold. Uh, and here we have a significant point to me because it looks like we finally made a higher low. So we have, I have my cycle counts on here. So normally they're around, uh, in the 30s, 40s. Occasionally we get shorter ones, but it looks like we finally made a higher low. Uh, and what that suggests to me, um, is something that you've been talking about, Camell, is that we're, uh, about to see a big change over the coming months in what is getting value from, uh, the stock market overall, what, where money is flowing. So we've had this higher low here on week, uh, on month 26. And so what you can just expect is that in comparison to the SP, SPX, gold is going to be doing quite a bit better. We had this massive downtrend and we finally got the higher low here. Uh, in the short term, I've been looking at this on, on the weekly chart as well. Um, and so this is where that big low was, and we've had one, two, three, and four cycles. Uh, and we have this candle that's kind of forming here right now. And so it's possible that, um, the back test of that, uh, monthly low, like, you know, that in cycles, we always expect after we get a low, whether it's a daily cycle low, a weekly cycle low, or a low on the monthly chart, there's going to be a back test of that low that comes at some point between, say, months on a monthly chart, month five and 10, on a daily chart, day five and 10, weekly chart, week five and 10. And so it's possible that this is an early back test, or it's also possible when we look at the weekly cycle chart here, that maybe there was still one more decline to come into weeks 32 to 34. Um, that 32 to 34 being kind of an average, a typical count that you might see. We have longer ones, we have shorter ones. Um, but around 30 weeks is, is fairly typical. So that would lead us into mid-September, maybe into October. Um, so once we get that, once this back test, if it's, if maybe it's this one here, or maybe there's another low, once that's, that low is coming in, then we should really expect that gold is going to do quite a bit better, uh, than, uh, than the stock market in general, which is kind of a big change, a very big change that most investors, uh, would simply not be ready for. Um, but that's still weeks and months away. We still have our current cycle, um, with the SPX that we're looking at. Like, hasn't topped out yet. Is there more down? Is there more upside to come, or has it already topped? Because we saw a pretty significant decline, uh, that started, uh, in mid-July. So, so that's undetermined yet whether there's one more move up. I do favor one more move up, but we'll have to see, uh, what happens.

I also favor one more move up, at least for now, but we're gonna find out, I guess.

Yeah, yeah. Um, here, so this is my weekly chart, uh, on, on the SPX. Uh, so the way that I've been counting the weekly cycles is not the same way that everyone always counts their weekly cycles. If we think about the way that a daily cycle works, we get our daily cycle low, up to a half cycle high, down to a half cycle low, up to the daily cycle high, back to a daily cycle low. And so the way that I've been thinking about these weekly cycles, even though traditionally week 22, that's the timing band for a weekly cycle low, week 25, that's the timing band for a weekly cycle low. If we treat these cycles as having a half cycle high, half cycle low, weekly cycle high, weekly cycle low, with a break of the trend line being the confirmation, then it seems, seems probable that that's what we're getting over here as well. A half cycle high, half cycle low, a weekly cycle high, down to a weekly cycle low. And some people would object, saying that 41 weeks is too long, but there's lots of examples of, of, of weekly cycles that, that are in the 40s. Like we have this one here, it's kind of hard to, to gauge. We have the low, and either here or here, we could argue about which one's the low, but obviously this was not a low because it immediately failed. And we have this one here. We could argue that maybe this was a low here, but if we take the idea that this was a half cycle low, well, then this is the full low at week 42. And so cycle traders love to argue about their counts. Uh, we could get into that kind of argument about what count is correct and what's the way, the correct way to do it. Uh, the correct way to do it is the way that the mar, the market decides is what's right. So we can argue with each other, but we can't argue with the market. Uh, so my idea here is simply that we're getting a weekly cycle low, likely here, um, on week 41, that has every chance in the world to make one, whether it's a slightly divergent higher high or a substantially higher high, um, into maybe like, everyone likes the $66,000 target. So it goes up to, if it's going to get hit, six, you know, it probably hits 6,100 because they don't normally just stop right at a round number. Uh, but that's kind of what my take is. And if I'm looking at my TSI, I'm just as oversold, maybe even a bit more oversold now than I was at this week 25 low. So TSI tells, tells me that I, this has potentially more room to run. But that's an idea, and that idea could be wrong, and then it just wants to go further oversold. Because often when they get oversold, it's like, you here, we, when did we get oversold? Well, you might say we are oversold right here, um, in March, but guess what? There was from there, there was another couple bounces up, but, you know, another, I don't know, 12, 30% of downside before the bottom actually came in. So, you know, it's not unreasonable to say that we're going to bounce up a little bit, and it's going to, and going to break this trend line and head lower towards a four, four-year cycle low, um, in 2026. So we'll have to wait and see, but I definitely prefer the potential for upside here.

That's super interesting to me that you use a longer count, like two, two counts. But looking at it from this perspective actually makes quite a lot of sense. I can see why you do it now. I would never have thought to do it that way, but now I'm looking at it, it does make a lot of sense.

Well, I mean, I'm not going to say that that was my idea to, to look at longer counts because, I mean, what I always have always tried to do is listen to what smart people have to say and try to incorporate their ideas. So one of the other cycle traders that I've learned a lot from on Twitter, his name is, uh, Arlovski. Um, he was the one that originally proposed a couple longer counts here, and then I just kind of ran with that idea. And now, if we're looking at a longer count, then it makes sense that we might see some further weakness into October. But if we consider, like, if, sorry, if we're looking at a regular count, you would say, well, 25, and then, you know, another 23 or 24 to the, or 26, and that's bringing you into, you know, October. And there'd be some logic behind that as well, because you put that on there, and you know, you're dropping into just before the election. And so the election is resolved, and all of a sudden, you know, what, oh, there's clarity. We people know how to invest because any active manager, they probably have a playbook ready for if, um, Kamala Harris wins, or they have a playbook for Donald Trump wins. So it would make sense, um, based on that reason, that drops down into an, I'll say, uh, in October, which would really be the, the standard way of measuring these cycles. But I just don't think that that's how this is going to work. But I could be wrong. And something that would support that potential idea would be actually that SPX gold to SPX ratio, if I can find it again. I put it, I'll just open the other window. Yeah. Um, so if we have, if the back test is going to come in the normal timing band, you would expect it to be, like I said, 5 to 10 months. So when does, when does gold or SPX outperform gold? Well, it's not on the way down because if you think about COVID, there was, um, on gold, and during the, that COVID shock, gold dropped 15%, but SPX went down, how much? 30 or 35%? Something like that. Yeah. So in, in theory, I mean, I don't know if that's true for all of these downtrends and uptrends, um, but in theory, if SPX, if gold is going to underperform, that's because SPX is overperforming. So perhaps, uh, that's another potential sign here, is that this weekly cycle on this ratio does want to, does want to come and give us one final low here into, I don't know, September and October. And that is a, a point in which, um, SPX is outperforming gold.

Yeah, kind of what I think is gonna happen. That that makes a lot of sense to me. That makes a lot of sense to me for sure.

Yeah, I have, where is my weekly cycle count on gold? So I have this as being a potentially a very strange, um, I, so we had, I got to find that count now, just to give me a second here. Where is it? Yeah, I've been hoping and praying I get one final low on gold because it just doesn't, it doesn't have the right feel to me based on my experience that it wants to move higher just yet. So I've been, I think Silver's starting to show what I was expecting to see from gold, and including the mining ETFs as well, the junior miners and the senior miners. They're all starting to look like they're hunting perhaps a weekly cycle low. But gold is kind of trading up in this tight range. So it's been a little bit of a tough read for me. Yeah.

So this is my, this is my, I guess we can, I'll go to gold first. Excuse me. This is my, um, this is my daily chart for gold. Like I told you before, I was kind of redoing some charts, so some of them are a bit of a mess, but this one I've cleaned up. Um, and if we take our, uh, in February, and we have one, two, three, uh, in, uh, in daily cycles. This one is kind of strange. This might be a short daily cycle, or maybe this is a long daily cycle. I'm not too sure. Um, but, but that doesn't necessarily matter all that much. We have here, um, which is, which is what I have is this likely weekly half cycle low. So again, if we're looking at, um, cycles, um, a half cycle low makes sense that it would show up somewhere around week 16 to 18. Um, and so that low, I think was this one right here on the weekly chart. So that's week 16. Um, and so if that is the case, then this could end up being an intermediate cycle low right here because we've come, we've got this intermediate inclining trend line that we've now broken, wicked below, and set at least a daily cycle low up here. And we've gone up and we've back-tested this low on days that should be day seven, I believe, day six. So that's in the timing band for the back test of a daily cycle low. So the question is, is it possible that this was also an intermediate cycle low? Now, it looks awkward, and normally you wouldn't expect it, but in a bit, in a, in a bullish cycle, you, in a bullish cycle sequence, you would expect to have your daily cycle low above your half cycle low. So in that sense, you might expect to have your intermediate cycle low above your, uh, intermediate half cycle low as well. So it's kind of an awkward looking shape in that way, but it's also, if, so before I traded on cycles, I used technicals, like standard technical analysis. And like, this is just kind of a rising cup and handle shape, which is pretty bullish. Yeah. Um, and if that's to play out, you know, it gives you a measured move of around 2600. If you just take the measured move, kind of like this, add that to what would be the breakout line, you know, say it breaks out here at 2650, 2660 would be essentially be the measured move. Now, I, one of the reasons I'm not just a technical trader anymore that I use cycles is because those shapes fail. They don't reach the assumed target all the time. So I, I adopted strategy because it's, it's more reliable for my experience. Uh, it doesn't mean you throw away old ways of, uh, of looking at charts, but it's just, you, you put it in the toolbox with the other ones. So I think that this could be an intermediate cycle low, and if that were the case, then I would be expecting a left translation. Um, and we get one more kind of move up to, uh, we probably get a daily cycle up here at 35 or so days, you know, going into mid-September, get your next DCL, and it's a higher one. And then you would left translate your second daily cycle here. And that's, you know, um, I've been talking about the late end of September, beginning of October for a while now. And I mean, I don't want to say like, that's definitely going to happen, but like, that that lines up very well right there. If this were to be a strange intermediate cycle low, and we top end of late September.

MH, I've been look, I've been looking at, so I've been looking at GDX. Here's my GDX daily count. This one I think I actually have complete with weekly cycles as well. Yeah, a weekly cycle count here. So this is only week 23. Um, but week 23 is certainly late enough for an intermediate cycle low. It was right here as well. Had our low back in 2022, a nice right translated cycle, left translated, and then down. And so this is, I think this is a higher low here. I can't remember, um, but they're pretty close to each other. So I mean, if we extrapolate that kind of move here, so we have a 23 low, and we have another move up into a left translated cycle up until the end of September. Like, how many weeks was this from here? This was top was week eight. So week eight, eight weeks from now is the end of September, right? So that's kind of, kind of frightening. So you can imagine that. So if we go back to the ratio, so we look at gold against SPX. So this is not the one with my count on it. Um, like here we go. So we have gold going up, SPX going up faster, declining here, and then you get the top in SPX, and then both are going down. But, you know, gold does not go down as fast as stocks. So gold is, is breaking out here. So I mean, that makes sense to me. Uh, that's, that's my, but my opinion, quote unquote, is of what's going to happen. But it doesn't mean it has to happen. It's just kind of a little math I'm putting together in my mind and expectations I'm giving for what we're going to see.

I think, I think that makes a lot of sense. I think that makes a lot of sense, especially if we are, if we make the assumption there is another leg higher in the stock market and then something kind of breaks and forces a more severe top, at least a short to medium-term local top. It makes sense, especially given the pullback we just had. We saw people dumping the metals on the day as well, because obviously in crashes, correlation 10 to one, right? So a lot of sense to me that if we just make the assumption there is another move to the upside and then something kind of goes bang and we see a more severe pullback, it makes sense that people would dump liquidity, would dump gold to generate liquidity, and therefore it would sell off with the stock market. But then again, at the same time, it also makes sense that it wouldn't sell off as severely because it's a risk-off asset, not a risk-on asset.

Yeah, that's right. And if we actually, if I flip this to the monthly chart on GDX, so this is what I have for counts on a monthly time frame. So we're, we're going to start with the global financial crisis, and that's where I'm, I took a count from here to there, which was 28 months, which actually kind of correlates with a lot of other timing. But normally you don't, the chart starts here. I don't really consider that first cycle, uh, very often. But anyways, we have roughly 32 months. Let me, uh, this a little bit so it's easier to see. We have a half cycle low at week, at month 16, then a low here on 32. If we look at, at this on the weekly chart, um, this is a more clear intermediate cycle low. And as we go through this, you notice that, that 20, say, 27 to 32 months is kind of what you're looking at. So, um, it's kind of an awkward low, but it's immediately, uh, so we know it went higher. So we know that there was a low because we went down, broke below a low, and then went higher above previous highs. So this was just an immediate, pretty well failure, immediately. So it was, um, a legitimate low. And so we go from here, we get a half cycle low, uh, at month 11, down to a low in month 30, then a half cycle low in month 11 again, and then a low into month 25. We go over here, and this one's kind of a bit of a mess, but this candle is, uh, week 16. This is more like the, the back test of this low, um, but it just doesn't get any momentum out of this low. We had a big strong move, um, for gold miners and silver miners. And if you look at silver miners back then, they were incredible. They had an amazing move.

Yeah, so this was the main low, and then we come to another low here, um, a left translated for this overall cycle into month 32. And then we get COVID shock. Gold goes down 15%, but gold miners, they go down, let's see, no, 50%, which is, or 48%, which is what you, which is what you expect. Like, you're, they're going to get crushed in comparison. And so it's funny because week to 18 would be roughly your half cycle low. Um, and from there, we get a left translated cycle that leads into the top and August 2020, when everyone was, uh, was super bullish, of course. Um, and then we came down here into the fall of 2022, when everyone was screaming that gold was going to zero. Um, and that was month 30. So if we take that count, um, it's a, a little bit rough, but we have 32, we have 30, we have 25, we have 32, uh, we have 30. Then, you know, well, what's our expectation based on the monthly chart? Is we have an expectation of 29 is February, 28 is January, 27 is December. So if we want to open cast a wide net, you might say weeks 27, or months 27, rather, in December through, uh, potentially April, or maybe March, December to March is what we could say. But if we include our weekly cycle analysis, and this is why it's important to look at, you know, monthly, weekly, and daily as well, we would say if this is going to be an intermediate cycle low, and we need to wait for confirmation of that, then we can start counting because there's a very good chance that the next intermediate cycle low is going to time that next low on the monthly chart. So when does that next one happen? Well, if this is the low here, we'll go out, let's just say 24 weeks, and where does that bring this? That brings us to January. So it's not, and that was, I think, on month 28 or 20, I can't remember. Yeah, so month 28. And if it goes a little bit longer, it's month 29 in, uh, in February. And this year, our low was in that, we that we blasted off was from February. So we could see that this, we could go a little bit higher here, maybe fill part of this upper wick here into, uh, into this move, and then we decline. And then are we, are we going to break this? Actually, this needs to be lined up a little bit better, but maybe we break this, uh, trend line into January, between that January and March of 2025 area. Um, and then it's time to, you know, kind of load the boat on gold and silver miners.

Yeah, that makes a lot of sense. That makes a lot of sense. Yeah. So I'm sure what your, a lot of your followers are most interested on, um, is is crypto. So they, they are, they are really into gold and silver, some of them as well. So I know they're going to be, they're going to really appreciate this.

Yeah, I'm sure they're, they're most interested, um, in making money. So yeah, that's what's really, what's most important. What's the market doing? Let me come along for the ride. So it's always most important when you're, is to determine the greater direction. What is the trend of, of what's happening? So I always start with a monthly cycle chart, um, when you're learning to be a cycle trader, it's, it's tough because, you know, there's, there's a lot of nuances, but generally speaking, you want to use, I would say, if I was learning, I would tell myself just to look at main indices and try to find the trend in there. So in the SPX, you know, around 37, 38, 39, 40 days, something like that, with the possibility going on the other side. A lot of individual stock names, you can get wild variation, like you could see a 30, 32 day cycle followed by a 64 day cycle, like they're just, it's, it's much harder to do on individual names. Um, anyways, so with knowing that, we should start with a monthly chart. Well, here's our monthly chart on Bitcoin. And what we'll notice, if we look closely enough, is that in the monthly chart, we have our main lows, our essentially our four-year lows. I don't have them marked off here, um, but if we start back here, say this is the beginning of time, we have a half cycle low of the four-year cycle at month 23, and then I believe right here is a, is about a four-year cycle low. Now, these first cycles here on Bitcoin, um, like I said before, it's hard to measure from your beginning, um, because the beginning is, you're going to get a first bottom. And so this was 23, and which is, if you consider that the regular, the length that we talk about is say, in the high, mid to high 40s, then actually week 23 coming out of a high, uh, uh, at the low, at high, at month 23, rather, that's almost cycle inversion right there because that would come at the timing band of, um, the half cycle low of that four-year cycle. So we got a, a low here that we can use for our count. We come up here, we got, think I believe it's, this is low here. I can't actually remember. I think it's the first one, but one of these two, the first one here, we have, yeah, month 38. We go over here, and we have, yeah, 44, uh, maybe it's the second one. Oh, maybe it is the second. Yeah, it's possible that's a second, or I haven't marked off incorrectly here. In either case, what you expect is that at some point, you're going to get, um, that half cycle low. And this one here, it looks like it's month 19. There was, you know, we had this kind of upper wick and a little bit of a move down, not much, for a half cycle low, um, but it's, it's still enough to count it in here. We have the COVID crash, which came and gave us pretty well a high cycle low. It was month, month 15. And here, um, it's kind of interesting because we have on month 10, we have actually a swing high that developed, and and we moved below the 10-month, 10-month, um, EMA or SMA. So it's entirely possible that month 10 here became, it was the actual half cycle low, or it's, you know, it's up here, and this would be the regular timing band around weeks or months, uh, say 18 to 23. Um, but if it did, if this is truly the half cycle low, and it was basically an inverted, came in the, I don't know, the half of the half cycle low, then that kind of makes, makes sense if we're expecting a left translated, slight cycle to come in here. So what we know for sure is that we're in an uptrend. We had a strong wick down here, but all it did was really, if you throw this fork on here, it just, it just perfectly, just about perfectly tested it. And now we're already back on the week, monthly chart, back above. I like the idea that that's a quarter cycle low on month 10.

Yeah, you got to be prepared that, you know, you, you get month on on different time frames because, you know, they get influenced by their opposite time frames. So if we look at this on the daily chart, this is going to be, be kind of messy. Got my daily counts here, and some of these, and I'll, I'll admit that, like, one of the things, if you're doing, if you're doing cycle analysis, it's always more important to trust your higher frame counts. Some of these counts I'm not necessarily, uh, in love with or fully sure about. But like, from example here, where we had this kind of potential half cycle low of the, the monthly cycle coming early, we have what looks like a day 47 low that immediately fails and comes down, and then it sets another low here. But 47, 41 days is kind of awkward, but 88 days is extremely long. So anyways, I'll, I'll move away from the daily chart for now.

So back over to the weekly chart, trying to scroll this together. And so when this was coming breaking lower, I was initially pretty sure that this was going to be the, our intermediate cycle low. 23 weeks, 23 is a little bit early, but we had just had, uh, what I thought was a week 32 here. So you get a little bit, if you balance amount, you get 32 and 23, and you just kind of get lower, you get shorter ones that follow longer ones. But it undercut. And what makes me very sure that this is not going to be a cycle failure here is that the third and final, um, way of knowing that you had a cycle low was the break of an upper trend line. So we have the low here, we get a swing, a swing low, um, closing above the entirety and wick of that candle, and above the, um, MA10. So I was fairly confident that this was going to be our intermediate cycle low. But we never get final confirmation by breaking the declining trend line. So what do we get? Get, we get an undercut. We get everyone on on Twitter screaming. I was kind of my pants a little bit too, if I'm honest. But, um, I went on and I looked at the weekly cycle chart and I'm like, H, bullish divergence. I mean, the reason you add in divergences is just to give yourself another perspective. You know, what's really going on? If there's, if this, if this shows up after an undercut, I typically get more bullish, not less bullish, because it's a sign that we're getting that potential bottom that we were actually looking for before we just got bullish, maybe a little bit too early. Um, and if we go to the daily count here, we have probable daily cycle low, um, but no confirmation yet. Um, and really, how many daily cycles do we normally expect, um, before we get an intermediate cycle low? And we normally expect four or maybe five. So this was only the third one, intermediate cycle low, one, two, three. So it was technically, it was early in the daily cycle count too. We get a quick into four, week 28, day 31. This is potentially it. It, it's early because you normally expect daily cycles to last, say, 50 to 60 days, um, with Bitcoin. But when you're going into, uh, an ICL, you often get those inversions. So this would just be, if this holds as the low, as I believe it will, I'll change this to DCL and ICL, and it'll just be an inverted daily cycle coming at the HCL timeline. And then, I mean, really from here, we should see price kind of accelerate. We haven't necessarily had the, the daily cycle low back test yet. So we still could kind of, we've closed above the MA10, so I could probably change this to being a daily cycle low here now, but I'll, I'll wait anyways. Um, but we should have a back test of the low. I don't know what price that will come at, but, you know, we expect within five to 10 days. So today is day four, so sometime between, well, sometime in the next few days, really, we should see that move back down and then accelerating to the upside.

Yep. I, um, whilst we're here, I want to ask you something actually. I have personally been experiencing for the majority of this cycle that Bitcoin has thrown an unusual amount of counts outside of the window. So do you have, do you have any thoughts on that? Do you have, is this a perspective you share or an experience you shared?

I mean, I, I, I share it 100% because, I mean, we have 64 into our four-year cycle low that counts. Let's say it's, that was our low here. We come in and then we had 40 days, which is kind of short. 45 days, which is also kind of short. And then we get this move down, which is looks like cycle failure. Um, but this is something actually, I would say that this cycle in Bitcoin has helped me, helped me realize a little bit, is that, of, you'll get cycle failure into a week, weekly half cycle low, and then you go higher. And that was always kind of confusing to me before, because often I would see cycle failure and then I would be getting ready to get a short, because once you fail a cycle, meaning you cross below the previous daily cycle low, you can expect that there will be another low to come. Um, but it didn't happen. So it's something to be, be prepared for. Um, when that does happen, you know, you can't just blindly short, or you're going to get wrecked. Um, but yeah, we have a lot of these, like intermediate cycles, is is typically when you get an inversion. But I mean, this is an inversion that's basically an inversion, you know, 41, that's basically an inversion, 30, that's an inversion. So it's, it's, it's been a real throw. Like, it's definitely changed, uh, the way that I've been looking at it. But that's why it's important, this really underscores the importance of trying to buy ICLs, because then you're not going to, if you, you can make, you have time, or you can move away from your computer, take a deep breath, go sleep, um, and think about your position and think about what are the potential outcomes. And let the chart develop. Some, some, like, if you had bought, um, right here, and you saw this undercut here, you might have been worried, but, you know, you just, you breathe a little bit, and you can see the price moving back up, and then you can decide what the best choice is for you to make, make after that.

Yeah, for sure. Yeah. And so you are leaning on the, you, you prefer the idea that we might be about to force a weekly cycle low here at the, at the hard right edge, then? Because I'm, I'm still kind of thinking we might get one more roll over. And I think Bob Lucas's preferred count is that we've actually only made a half cycle low and kind of half failed it as well. I don't know.

Yeah, I mean, when I look back at all these different counts, to me, there's every potential that you're going into an intermediate cycle low, and you get that low count coming into an intermediate cycle low, and you get a lower count coming into cycle low, another low count. You know, is it different this time? So I don't know. I think that these kind of moves throw people off because, you know, you, you failed, you've failed, you've cut underneath, and, you know, you have high, lower, high, lower, high, lower, high, so lower highs and lower lows are are typically not bullish. Um, but if this instead, so I suggested earlier that, you know, we had an inverted, um, half cycle low, week, 20, month 21, if you're looking, looking, looking back, is like right here, that was 19, correct? This is COVID, so it's a bit of a shock. So I was, I was 15. You know, these are just, this is the timing band where you expect that half cycle low of the four-year cycle. So I don't, I'm like, I'm, I have all my position, original positions. Um, I don't plan on selling them unless I see a real reason to. Um, and that reason has not come up. And when I look at other cycles, um, I see every reason that, you know, maybe the SPX has topped, um, but it's going to go to a lower high. It's not going to, it's not going to roll over immediately. At least that's the way I'm looking at it. Perhaps that's wrong. But I see this as being a week 28 low. I mean, weekly bullish divergence. Why would I, why why am I going to ignore that? And, you know, I've used forks, um, in the past. I don't use them that often. Again, there's some other traders that use them, and this is just such a perfect hit here. So I mean, is the, is what's the pain trade? Is a pain trade down, or is the pain trade rip, right? So yeah, the market's going to do what the fewest number of participants are prepared for. You get a big account like Bob's on there saying, oh, it's likely we're going to get another lower low, um, which, which would, you know, if we're using the regular timing band, is going to come, what, like beginning of September, something like that, another 30 days.

Yep. So what if instead, you know, kind of come back here and you just rip? Yep. And then everyone's holding their pants. Excuse me. So that's, that's what I think is going to happen. It's definitely something I'm on guard for. It's definitely something I'm, I'm, I'm keeping an eye out for.

It's super interesting actually. I, I hadn't spotted that these shorter inversions were coinciding with the ICLs. I hadn't noticed that at all. So I've definitely learned something.

Yeah, yeah. I mean, actually, if I flip open MARA here, um, look here. This was an ICL back in, back in April, day 20. Um, so it's, it's, it's not untypical. This was the previous ICL, day 29. And for for MARA, that's kind of short. Here we have, you come out of it, and you got a short day 23 daily cycle low. And, and, you know, this is another typical area to to find inversions. And inversions can kind of show up everywhere and it screws with you. But like, if you're anticipating when you might see one coming into your ICL and coming out of your ICL, are are often areas when it happens. And and MARA is one of the charts with I'm looking at. I'm like, you know, obviously everything, anything can happen, anything can break down. But this chart to me is just, I added this fork recently, so it's kind of biased, but it's so bullish. Like we have a very clear base here in like inverted head and shoulders. We're creating on top of it, what looks like another inverted head and shoulders. We broke this essentially yearly cycle inclining trend line, and we had an inversion here, and we've had what could potentially be another inversion right here. So I don't, I don't know if you, if you've ever looked at cycles this way, where you get what, not a no failure followed by failure, a no failure followed by failure, a cycle like that. And so this would essentially be a YCL here.

Yeah. So I, I like to call it the Irish cycle because with you, um, I say that lovingly to Irish people because my background is, uh, is Irish. But that's what makes sense to me. And even here on this lower low, I mean, there's, this is a higher low here, and this is a lower low on price. So that's hidden bullish divergence. And if I look over where I have a MARA Bitcoin chart, so this is MARA against Bitcoin. No weekly count here, but just a very clear, well, I shouldn't say clear, potential shoulder head shoulder measured move all the way up, up here, getting back to resistance and support. Like the signs, in my opinion, are there. I have, where's a MSTR? I had a couple, I some forks on here. Let me get, get rid of this potential count, but we have forks meeting right here at the end of September.

Y, so if we take these, this white fork, low high to low coming up here, we take this, this, this major fork from the previous four-year cycle low, high, low, we meet here at around 400 at the end of September, which was 4,000 pre-split.

Right, right. Yeah, I know this. I actually just yesterday had to move all this around. What a pain. But anyways, so I mean, that just says to me, you know, again, we go back to the ratio, we go back to, um, the gold to SPX ratio, and we say, well, maybe this has another move down right into here, and then you get one of these kind of strange shapes where it's like, you know, shoulder, mini head, shoulder, and that's your basing pattern, and then it's going to break out.

Yeah, so, but, but first, we have to get that move down, which is stocks up, and then therefore Bitcoin up. And at this point, Bitcoin outperformance is what you would kind of anticipate in the late stage of a cycle before a recession.

Yep. Yeah, yeah. Interesting. So I got to be, I, um, I don't know if you know, I went flat from a trading position, from a trading perspective, on Bitcoin. I've still got my core allocation from the lows. That's like a different strategy for me. That's more of a, I try to make two trades with that. I try to get in at the four-year cycle low and get out at the top. That's the strategy. But I make a lot of swing trades on the way up. And I, I went completely flat because I have, I know a lot of people, they get kind of FOMO or whatever, but I'm happy to be quite late to a trade in exchange for confidence. So as it stands, I'm, I'm on guard for this ICL or in, we were just talking about, but I'm still quite open to seeing perhaps a little bit more sideways, another 30 days of. I'm open to both. I have, know, I'm not going to try to pretend like I have a clue which one's going to form. Having had this conversation with you now, I think you make quite a compelling case that we could be about to force an an inversion and a a weekly cycle low. So I'm definitely more on guard for that than I was before this conversation. I'll hold my hands up and admit to that. But, but yeah, I'm, uh, I'm looking forward to seeing if we can get momentum return. Obviously, if we get trend line break, then it should be a pretty clear signal.

Well, this is, this is another chart that I'll share. This is not a broad cycle chart, obviously. It's just, noting that every 17 years that there's been some sort of top, not necessarily the top of that cycle, but some sort of top that led to a decline. And so this isn't my idea. Like, you know, if you're like me, the ideas that you come up with are often an amalgamation of other people's ideas. I heard a podcast, I want to say was back in the fall, um, and the, the guy on the podcast was talking about how every 17 years, uh, if you're measuring top to top, you get a cycle top on some level, followed by a decline. And those declines, um, are sometimes severe. Like the GFC was what, 55%? And sometimes they're smaller. Like this is like one candle and it's like a 22% decline. But from here, we can see that there's, uh, an iteration where you get a larger decline. This was, I think, 40% here. And then you get a short, smaller decline, 20% or 25%. Larger decline, this is 1973, which is maybe similar to what we're going to face here, um, if we're talking about gold performing stocks. Um, and this was a larger decline, maybe this was 45, 50%, I can't really remember. Shorter decline, 20%, 23%. Larger decline, 50%. So technically, if this is a pattern, shorter or longer, then this one should be the shorter decline, where you get a 25% move down or something like that. Um, but if it's going to repeat, if we're talking about, you know, gold outperforming, then perhaps it's going to be this one here, where you get, you know, 40% down or something like that. But all that to say is that 2024 is following in the cycle. Perhaps it's going to change, and this will no longer play, and stocks continue up into next year. Um, but from my point of view, it just seems very likely that 2024 is a year where we see the top and we see a decline come in. I know there's a lot of people that follow the 16-year or the 18-year real estate cycle, and so they're saying that it should go up into to next year based on that cycle. But I mean, every cycle other than, like, this is a very strict cycle, it's every 17 years. Other cycles that we measure, like investor cycles, you know, we give ranges. Like the daily cycle low is going to be 40s days, but it might come at day 32, might come at day 43. And so that 18-year, maybe it's 18 years, maybe it's 172 this time around, or maybe it's 193 this time around. I don't know how accurate, um, and precise that cycle is. But this tells me that we should be on guard this year for that top and not next year.

Very, very interesting. Makes a lot of sense to me as well. I've been, I've been quite vocal about expecting a top this year.

Yeah, that makes sense to me as well. But, you know, the time, the market will prove us right or wrong.

Absolutely. Do you have any other charts you want to share? Anything else you're looking at?

Oil is kind of interesting. Is this the right one? I don't want that chart actually. Um, oil.

I was looking for it to come into a weekly cycle low in September, but it might be coming earlier. I have a longer weekly cycle on oil as well. Um, if I kind of condense it so you can see, it measures and gives an average length with this cycle of, uh, of around 70 weeks. We go back and see 70, you get these tops, 70, 71, 80, really long here, 100, followed by a short into 47. So, 147 between the two, you get that average in the 70s again. 70, 79, 69, 70, and then 88. So, actually, really this being, um, a low here at 66 with balance, that makes sense. So, oil might be forming an intermediate cycle low here, and it's actually higher than this one here. So, we may actually get oil moving up a fair bit from here. My, my initial reaction is, is for me to expect oil to come down, um, but it has broken the trend line. Um, there's no, is there bullish divergence here? Maybe it's a tiny bit, actually. Um, so we might see oil start to move back up for the next several weeks. And if this is an ICL, then I mean, a couple, a few months would be, would be reasonable.

Sure. So, just kind of thinking aloud, like if that's going to be an I here, then where's my 10-year yields? Because I mean, if gold's going to go higher, you would expect a 10-year to go higher. Uh, so we failed here, uh, but it is week 32. What did I do? Oh, I must have, this is, I must have done this yesterday. Oh, and there is bullish divergence on these lows. Uh, so maybe, um, as contrary as it would be, because we, I, I think a recession is coming, maybe not yet. You know, maybe yields are going to work their way up for several more weeks before rolling over later. And maybe that's good for stocks, though. Uh, because in this drop that just happened, you know, it was on, it was on a low DX, like DXY dropped, yields dropped, um, and so maybe, uh, this is going to be DXY up, yields up, and stocks up. So, I don't know. It's, uh, interesting times. That's not something I had on my bingo card, if I'm being honest. I was thinking we'd probably go a lot, a lot lower in the yields.

This is my, so, okay, I'm just now, I'm just, this isn't stuff that I have prepared. I'm looking at old charts that I haven't looked at for a while. So, this is my JPY. And actually, okay, so this is a, a pattern that, um, who was it that I saw made this pattern? It was a YouTuber that talks about crypto. Um, might have been the Blockchain Backer. He talked about this pattern where from a top, you get a five-wave down, you go one, two, three, four, five, a sixth wave that comes up into that fourth wave area, and then rolls over into a final wave down. So, this cycle count is not right here. It's not 27 weeks. It's, it's much longer than that. Um, and then what that follows is a, is a significant bottom. And when that bottom comes in, now, of course, patterns fail all the time. So, there's no saying that this has to play out. But I do recall the way that said that this would typically play out was out of this bottom. Let me find my, here, my path. You would get an A, B, C correction for a big move up. So, um, I don't know what that means. I'm not a, a macro kind of guy. Just look, I'm a guy that looks at charts in his spare time, try to make money. Um, so if this pattern plays out, you know, this is, this is DXY probably getting crushed, right? Um, this is DXY potentially recovering. Don't look at the time scale here. This is just arrows. Um, so, you know, the big upper wick and very oversold, like, you know, already oversold after this. How many weeks off the bottom is that? Five weeks. But, you know, oversold isn't bad necessarily. Oversold is often the place that things can gather the, the momentum, um, to make a bigger move. So, we could have an ABC, and that's, you know, crushing the dollar further, and not in a good way, right? Because in the past, like DXY is going down, stocks are going up, gold's kind of going up. But in this kind of way, it's like, you know, DXY down, yields going down very quickly, um, JPY going up, and so stocks getting crushed. So, maybe this is the trigger. Maybe this is, you know, this is going to back off, and we see this kind of ABC correction happening, um, and then this is what's going to start your initial decline in stocks, not DXY strength, uh, but DXY weakness.

Wow. I'm thinking, I'm thinking, uh, we're going to get a CPI print this week, right? Yeah. Everything I've been looking at points to continuation of CPI coming off, absolutely everything. And that chart has made me really wonder if that is, if there's something wrong with that. Yeah. You know, how are things going to interact with each other? What do those lows mean? Like, what do they, like, what do they mean? Because, because Rec, well, if you think about it recently, like this whole rally has been, um, the Fed's going to cut, Fed's going to cut, Fed's going to cut, Fed's going to cut. So, but what if now, like the Fed, you know, maybe they're backed into a bit of a corner where they can't cut? Um, I was reading, um, I forget the name of the guy on Twitter, I think it's Paulo Macro. He was saying that cutting would essentially, and this makes sense, if they cut rates, that would send the USD down more, send the JPY up more, and kill stocks. Yeah. Right? Because that's what's just happened. So, if they're going to cut rates, and even though yields are suggesting that they should, um, that might have a devastating effect. So, maybe there's not going to be a cut.

Looking at, so this was the, uh, last major low was February '08, but that was not the high, right? That was not the high of the, before the GFC high was, uh, September, so right around here, October, November. So, really the last leg down, actually here into the 15-year low was not bullish. This was November. Yeah. So, around here was, was the last low. The last low. This, this is basically an intermediate cycle. We have several months here. So, maybe that's where we are. Maybe it's something like that. I'm going to, this is, I don't want the daily chart, not weekly chart. I don't have. Ignore all these counts, sorry. It's going to be kind of ugly here. Um, no, too far back. Little too far back here. We go. So, this was a monthly. This was a, a monthly low. And then where are we right here? So, this was right, this was the top of the stock market, uh, right here. And then DXY went down further and wasn't bullish. Came up a little bit and then was not bullish because we had it from here in the GFC. This was the first part of the decline. It was like a 20% decline. Then we have the DXY basing. And then this was the deflationary part where there was like a huge move down where it was like 30%, right? Right into, yeah, July '07 or July '08 into November '08. That was the big, I'm pretty sure that's the time of the big decline. Yeah. So, maybe that's where we are. We're something like this, you know, or we're, we're in the summer still. So, we're something like this. We're going to move up and move into an ICL. And but it's not bullish all the way down. There's a part where it's going to be potentially still bullish. Or maybe we're here, you know, we're, we're setting an ICL potentially now. Um, where is my weekly cycle chart? Here we go. Weekly Cycles, DXY. Um, get rid of this fork. So, what week are we on here? This is technically maybe it's 32, but then maybe it's failed and this was 23 was a low. I don't know. Um, we're pretty oversold, but it can continue down when it's oversold. So, I don't know. Like, I, this is where I have my three-year cycle low. And so my thought here was we undercut here and undercut this three-year cycle low into September. Um, and if we undercut enough and we come down into this range, then, you know, all of a sudden we're breaking the trend line from the, uh, up, up uptrend line from the GFC. And so this, all of a sudden, it's not a three-year low, it's like a 15-year cycle low. Um, because technically, this, this was 2008. Technically should have been here. Should have been, is the timing band. If you're looking for exactly 15 years, it was this low. Um, but if it doesn't come here, uh, maybe we're going to move up more first. I'm not sure. It's hard to say. We do have this line that I think needs to be broken at some point. Um, but we could potentially be seeing an I come here, which is, even though we've had high, low, and a lower high here, uh, potentially that this is confirming that this is a three-year cycle low from July. Um, and we're going to move up a little bit here. Uh, who knows how much? Part of that could be bullish for stocks if we're looking at what we've conclusions we've drawn from other charts. Uh, and then part of it could be bearish. But maybe it's the decline that is that is really bearish. So, maybe we set an I here and it left translate with stocks into, into the end of September. That could make sense. Yeah, especially if they don't cut rates, right? If they don't cut rates until September, or even if they're stubborn and it takes them longer, then yeah, all the other central banks around the world have already started cutting. So, maybe we see the Dixie rise on everything else being weaker relatively speaking. Yeah. Yeah. And so this was, this low here was December. And so the, the low on stocks in the fall came like up here, like at the end of October. So, this was a rally for stocks, but this was also a rally, right? One to the top, like the first top was March, which is like here. So, we came off this ICL a fair bit before they had that first top. And then here, uh, in April, was where we had that week 25 low. And so now we've gone lower since then. But I mean, it's, there's no to say that stocks can't rally because I mean, they did here. This was a rally point, this first, this first daily cycle essentially was a rally. So, maybe the first daily cycle here will also be a rally for stocks if this is an I here. I don't, there's no, there's no, um, evidence of that just yet. But I mean, from Tommy Pan, if this, if this hasn't failed, then you would say, I mean, it's, it's, it's deep in the timing band. Week 32 is pretty long, yeah, for, for the DXY. Yeah. Yeah. Wild times, definitely. But I mean, moving away from things that we're not sure about, um, the things that we, like, we are, I shouldn't say like certain about, but that seem clear, um, it does seem more likely than not that SPY is has a good chance to move up here. So, that's what I'm going to be looking for for. And I'm, I'd like to go, if it's going to go that way, I want to go long with it. Is the way I'm going to, is going to phrase that. But I'm hoping it does go long. It does give me a long to go to go with. Yeah. I'm, yeah, I'm also, yeah, I mean, if it's, if we're green today, where's my, all my tabs? Um, but if we're green today, I'll, the Qs, we have a DCL here, and we're going to break through. Like, this is, I, I, I, I call this as a daily cycle low. I mean, we're going higher again. I think that's good evidence that this is a daily cycle low, at least. So, um, backtest should come probably by Monday. Um, I would think by early next week, we should have the backtest of that low. And I often, I'll, what I'll do is I'll look at a four-hour cycle. I'll, I'll time four hours, um, to give us, to give us a low. So, this is the US 100, which I use as my proxy for the Qs. Um, and so the relative time band, the timing band for a low on the US 100, or the US 500, if you want to do the SPX, is about 50 hours, give or take. So, here we had a half cycle low at 31, and we had a low here, and I got to get rid of this 19. Then we had a final low here. This one's a little bit longer. How much, how long is this kind of cycle here? So, this is pretty long. This is 74. But that makes sense. We went higher, left translated, failed, and this will be short. So, we had long, short into a daily cycle low. And so this chart is kind of giving us some clues here on the shorter time frame where we might kind of come up and then break this trend line to set the, um, uh, the daily cycle low backtest. And if we see signs that this is turning around again, I'll go long here because at the very least, um, I think that we're going to go up until around day nine, day 10. Like, if this is going to be a left translated daily cycle, then, you know, days 8 to 12, let's say, is your time band. So, day 8 would be, you know, Thursday next week to potentially, uh, into early part of the week afterwards. So, uh, we'll have to see. But that's kind of going to be my trigger using the, the four-hour time frame, break this trend line, um, get into that timing band. This is not 39. I'll just delete that. But, um, get into the timing band here, and then see a move up. And it makes sense that it might come up to this, uh, area for, uh, resistance and support, maybe 19, 19,450 is, uh, and kind of go from there. But that would be my, uh, that would be an entry for me, um, using the four-hour chart. And my entry would be on the Qs. I would trade, I trade TQQQ, um, off of this once in a while. I'll do some options, but normally just TQQQ. What I use. Very nice. Yeah. Anyways, um, I don't know if you have any other questions, but, um, no, um, thank you very much. Look at, thank you very much for sharing that. Uh, there's, yeah, there's a lot going on right there. There's a lot going on for sure. Have to kind of see, wait and see what happens, but I think that there's, um, positive signs that the, the outcome that we're looking for, um, with Bitcoin, um, is going to happen. Actually, have this. This is a 12-hour chart I do on Bitcoin, which should, should normally time, um, your, your half, the half cycle low. I won't bore you with too many more, um, different time frame charts, um, but I'll use a 12-hour time frame. In 12 hours up now, and so the next low based on this should be, you know, 50 to 60 bars. So, sometime between, let's see, what's the date here? 30th, 29th of August and, uh, early September would be the next either half cycle low, if this will end up being a daily cycle low, um, or the next daily cycle low based on that timing. Yeah. So, we'll see what happens, but I'm, uh, uh, I'm positive about it. Yeah. I am cautiously optimistic as it stands. And, uh, I've got, yeah, all my cash is ready to be deployed since I'm currently flat. But like I said, a bit earlier on, I'm more than happy to be slightly late in exchange for a bit of extra confidence for sure. There's no reason to go longing and aping into anything when you, like, you know, you have your position that you're, you're going to, you're going to continue to move with the market. Um, whether or not you have a specific long or not, that's why it's important to buy your, your, your major lows. And even the kind of the, like your intermediate cycle lows, that's when you want to get in. Yeah, for sure, for sure. Well, unless there's anything else you want to present, I will, I'll link all your social media, um, in the, in the pinned comment of this conversation, so people can find you. Uh, no, I think that's pretty good. We've, pretty long conversation. I know my wife and kids are waiting for me to get off the computer, so no problem at all. A little bit. Thank you very much for your time, Andrew. It was really great to talk to you and I learned quite a few bits today as well, so that was really great. So, thank you again. Thanks for your time, and I hope the viewers like it. I'm sure they will. All right, awesome. Uh, have a great one. Yeah, you too. Thanks for being here. Cheers. Bye. Cheers.