Transcription
We are officially in the first week of July. And while a lot of you guys are out there, you know, don't have your drafts until August, don't have your drafts until, you know, early September for your fantasy leagues, myself and good friend Ron Stewart over here, have been drafting all summer. And let's just say we have a lot of player takes we have to get through.
Ron, >> yes, sir. We are July 8th right now. I am 115 drafts deep. I've been doing nothing but drafting teams, trying to get ahead of the curve and just sort of see uh what these draft rooms are like this season. I feel like I got a pretty good strangle hold on what the landscape is right now and just kind of the players that I am gravitating towards.
>> It's funny you mentioned 116 because I think my my official draft count on the postdraft contest because I did a little bit of the big board, but the post-draft contest I think I'm at 116, you know, BBMs, uh uh I think a Pit Bull's in there, I think, you know, a Dalmatian's in there, a couple big dogs. So, yeah, we've been getting active this summer. We're going to come at you with our 10 favorite clicks on the board, five from each of us.
Ron, when I saw that you wrote this guy down on the sheet, I said, "Thank you for talking about him because I've been talking about him all summer that my freaking voice is drying up, but I'll let you take it away with Coulson Loveland, the tight end from the Chicago Bears."
>> Uh, yeah, I'm taking Coloulson Lovelin right at the 34 turn right now. I keep on pulling him up to like the middle of the fourth, early fourth. He is to me one of the most mispriced tight ends on the board. Maybe the most mispriced tight end on the board where he is firmly behind McBride, a little bit ahead of Warren. Uh but I see him much closer to McBride than further back where once he was unlocked last year, he was just an absolute monster. His per out numbers across the board. I track all the rookies during the season among all the rookie receivers. So that's wide receivers and tight ends. He was first in PFF grade. He was behind only McMillan and Burden in first downs per out run. He was behind only McMillan in yards per out run. 21% targets per out run in an offense with DJ Moore, Roma Dunay, Luther Burton is really impressive. And then we saw him completely get unlocked where once he had 80% of the snaps in week eight, he was the highest scoring bear the rest of the season. When he ran 70% or more of the routes, his game logs were 23.7, 25.1, 21.4, 6, 29.8, 8 and then 6.8. Just almost averaging 20 plus points per game over that span, which is just nuts. He was a true focal point of this offense. 13.9 points per game over a 13game sample. That's week eight through the playoffs. We're talking that's only behind McBride and Bowowers last year. And now he's taking a step forward. He finally gets a leg up over Cole KT as a full-time tight end that's going to be running wide receiver routes, tight end routes. And when we're talking about Ben Johnson and Caleb Williams, uh if their leading target is Colston Lovelin, he is going to smash.
>> Yeah, it's hard not to get excited about a 22-year-old tight end who finished the year the way he did. I mean, you mentioned down the stretch just 13.9 n points per game. Very strong figure. But a stat that I've also referenced in the past is after that big- time breakout game against the Bengals, he was a top four tight end in points per game while only running the 17th most routes at tight end. And you mentioned where he goes in relation to McBride versus where he goes in relation to Warren. I think the gap not only should be closer to McBride, but as you guys see on the screen, I'm in full agreeance. I have him ranked straight up over McBride and I'd be willing to push him to the 23 turn. Now, obviously from a price perspective, you'll never have to take him at 25. He only goes at 47. Somehow his ADP in the last week has actually gone down, which makes zero sense. reading the tea leaves, everything we've heard from the team this off seasonason, the growth of the player down the stretch when they needed him most in the playoffs, 25 targets in those two games, like I'm all in like you are and if he's anywhere in the fourth round, he is an autoclick for me.
>> Yeah, I I think absolutely. I was even telling you I I love Luther Burton. I want to be all in on Luther Burton, but the issue is that Luther Burton's ADP is like 42, Leland is 46. So really, unless if I took McBride or Bowers prior, I'm almost always picking Leland over Burden. I hate that it's that way, but they're going to at the very worst, they're going to project evenly, and you can put one of them in your tight end spot versus a wide receiver spot. And if all things are equal, and I don't have a tight end, I would just rather that production in my tight end spot. So, it's it's really tough to pass on him.
>> Yeah, really tough to pass on him, especially when you consider too Cardinals offense, not a great projection. the Bears offense. I mean, I wouldn't be shocked if Caleb won the MVP. So, yeah, all in on Loveland. Love the price difference between him and McBride right now. Why take McBride in round three if you can get Lovelin in the middle of round four. Uh, another guy that I've been drafting a ton of and, uh, this is actually one of my highest rostered players on underdog as well. His ADP currently going off the board 55.1. He is all the way up as my 47th ranked player, and I'm talking about Basel Tudin of the Jacksonville Jaguars. People might just look at what he did last year and think, "Oh, it wasn't the most impressive." Like, what do he have? 83 carries, 307 yards. Like, people are going to look at this box score and think, "Wow, Bashel Tutin, not a very impressive rookie year." But you do have to contextualize the fact of the role that he was playing on this team. ETN the main Bellcow back to getting a lot of the dirty carries on this team. And it's more so just a horistics take here with Ton that this is a 4-3 speed 205 pound running back that I do think in a full capacity 15 18 plus opportunity per game type of role is the exact back that Liam Co needs on this team. I really do think from a profile perspective he could be this year's Bucky Irving for this team. We obviously saw how Bucky Irving played down the stretch for the Buccaneers. He was coached by Liam Con in that stretch. But the comp that I keep coming back to this offseason when it comes to this Jags backfield and funny enough uh Zayn on Twitter um I don't Do you know his exact Zayn Denani correct? Right.
>> Uh I believe so. Yeah.
>> Do do you know the reference? Okay. So he tweeted this out and I've referenced this on the channel a couple of times because I honestly do feel like this is maybe as close to a onetoone comparison as I could possibly guess get here from a heristics perspective. But it really does remind me of a couple years ago, the discussion we were having between Chase Brown and Zack Moss. And Zach Moss, I would argue down the stretch with the Annapolis Colts the year before was a more proven bet than what Rodriguez was for the Washington Commanders last year with Crod. This has been a guy who in 35 NFL games, doesn't even have 200 career carries, only has seven targets in his career. So, if I'm making a bet on Bashel Ton, the upside secondyear player with the adequate speed, with the college profile, being able to catch passes, with the overall camp buzz, obviously he's been able to show out in training camp. Chris Rodriguez been dealing with injury. I'm looking at this and thinking I can get an RB1 potentially outside of the top 50 of the draft.
>> Yeah, I like to as well. I want to say the last time we recorded together, we were talking about offenses we were buying into last season. Y Jaguars and Bears were on that list. And I'm going back to the Well, we talk about a Bear first up, you talk about a Jaguar. Uh and I I agree. I I find like two's in this weird range where sometimes I already have my running backs at that point. So, uh there's a lot of fun receivers in that range, too. Like right before the cliff happens with like Carnell Tate, uh and just that range of receiver. I don't mind Christian Watson either, but uh and I've been taking some Lamar, but Tuin's fun. But he there's just like a lot of running back names in that area. So, I assume you're like you are click especially with 47 uh overall there uh clicking him a bunch. I like him in that group and I mix him in uh as well. But I'm all over the Jags offense.
>> Yeah, basically where I have him draft or have him rank, sorry. Obviously, he's getting drafted later on, but the reason why I'm willing to push him up the boards because the way I kind of look at it is say I start off at the first pick or the second pick, I get a Bejon or I get a Jir Gibbs at that spot. at a two-3 turn. Maybe I get a falling AJ Brown or a Drake London or maybe I push up a Rasheed Rice at that point. Come August. He's probably going to be a guy that has to go at the end of the second round. I wrap back in the third. I draft another one of those wide receivers. At the fourth round, maybe you get a falling level and then all of a sudden you can get Tutin as your RB2 upside spot. You already have a, you know, a sustained RB1, a guy that you can depend on for 23 plus points per game. tacking on Tunes Jarby too while still having two strong wide receivers and a foundational tight end for what I believe Coulson Lovelin could be. Like to me that would be the most ideal spot if I'm picking at the top of the board.
>> Yeah, I think I got to move him up. I'm I'm like at like right at 8%, but I just find myself I kind of just close my eyes and pick one of Henderson, Irving, or Toutton. Like they're all they're all decent plays to me, but uh I got to move up too. And there's also some lag there too where he was kind of a, a mini tier break from those guys and then the Chris Rodriguez injury stuff surfaced. He's now been rising since then uh and is now firmly in that tier as well. So I want to get more of that. I just want more of the Jags offense.
>> Yeah, I I mean we by the time you guys are watching this, it's funny you mentioned Jaguars and Bears because hey, guess what? I'm going right back to the well this year. the video that we recorded yesterday were offenses we're targeting and I'm going right back to the Jaguars and Bears because if you told me this ended up finishing as the first and the third best offense in the NFL next year and again Trevor Lawrence who by the way was the quarterback one in fantasy down the stretch last year eight on nobody outscored Trevor Lawrence. What if he took the next step going to have a ton of scoring opportunity and like I mentioned with Caleb Williams as well that would obviously impact Coulson Lovelin's breakout.
>> Yeah, I think the Jags might have like the best one through four wide receiver room. I think your Cowboys will go [laughter] can put something, you know, wide receiver four I couldn't even really name, but Turpin Yeah, one through four on the Jags is no joke.
>> Yeah, I mean I I'll take Travis Hunter, former second overall pick, as my quote unquote fourth in snaps any day over Kabe Turpin.
>> No bias.
>> Yeah, absolutely.
>> Um, but we'll go on to your next player here. Another guy that's going kind of in that top 35ish range on underdog. Like if I take a look at his ADP, if it's letting me switch, 32.7 ADP is rising about a spot in the last week. And that is actually one thing I've noticed on underdog is this range of wide receivers has been pushed up. And like we mentioned before we started recording, it's kind of caused Trey McBride to fall. I see McBride falling 39, 311 in some rooms because like the T. Higgins, the lad maki, those guys are kind of being pushed up the board in the third round. But I'll let you take it away.
>> Yeah, I just keep taking T. Higgins, especially like when we're talking format specific of best baseball, spike weeks, half PPR, T. Higgins just kind of embodies that. I believe it was week 17 in 2024 that he just or maybe it was week 16. It was one of those two. He had an awesome playoff run that year. And really just what it comes down to. And it's not to take away from George Pickins, but it's more that these guys are really similar archetypes in my mind as the 1B on really good offenses with really good quarterbacks. and you're kind of getting a discount where uh the half PPPR points per game for Tiggins in games with Jamar Chase was 12.6 with Pickkins and CD Lammond was 12.6. I think of course Pickins could improve upon that in another year in the offense. But it's just more to say that there's probably like a 10 pick discount you're getting. So about like a round and a half uh on or a little bit less than a round and a half like about a round on T. Higgins you can get in the third round. But I think he's falling. You said his ADP is in the 30. It's like 37
>> 32.7. So he's actually up one spot.
>> Okay. So he's going up. Okay. So people people are kind of tooting. [laughter] Uh but he's had 21 touchdowns in his last 27 games and every time Burrow has played 15 or more games, he's had 36 touchdowns, 35 43. So it just comes down to the idea that he's in this range of like and don't get me wrong, I like Z Flowers and I like Devonte Smith and we're talking about even like Chris, we're talking about these offenses where through the air those guys touchdown upside is kind of capped. Whereas T. Higgins, all he really does is score touchdowns on this team. I could see a big bounce back for the Bengals. We already saw him hit a a top five wide receiver season in points per game despite the Jamar Chase triple crown. And then, god forbid if anything did happen to Jamar Chase, all of a sudden T. Higgins, you know, we're sitting down for these rankings videos every week and T. Higgins is like the wide receiver four for like week eight if that was to happen. You know what I mean?
>> Yeah. Uh I I am on the same page here from an implied upside perspective. We literally saw what it looked like 12 games, 18.5 points per game, wide receiver six. That's no joke of a stretch. and uh he's a guy that I've also been rising in my own rankings like I believe uh if I'm not mistaken 2026 I still have my top 36 probably going to go up a couple spots as I maneuver some of those quarterbacks and you know a Kairen and Javvante Williams type down but I do have uh T Higgins when you're looking at the situation here he's part of a big tier of wide receivers so why wouldn't you bet on the guy that's attached to what we can easily project to be a top five level offense in terms of both passing volume as well as potent potential touchdown opportunity you mentioned the George Pickins comp. I agree with it and I've actually argued it from the opposite end in terms of a pro lamb stance where people are taking the splits last year holistically without acknowledging what we thought coming into the year. We thought coming into the year that CD Lamb was in, you know, top three to five NFL wide receiver talks. And while we were high on George Pickkins, it wasn't like anybody had him as a top 10 receiver. Now, when we consider what happened in 2025, if you want to say George Pickkins is now the ninth or tenth best receiver and CD Lamb's the number six receiver, I think that's probably a a reasonable capitulation. But I see a lot of people that are like, "Oh, I would rather have Pickkins over Lamb or I'd rather have um you know, Pickkins right next to Lammond." And to me, people didn't do that when T. Higgins had 18.5 points per game in 2024 when it came to impacting Jamar Chase the final or the following year. So, I just don't really think it's congruent. People are taking it all out on the Pickkins versus Lamb discussion without acknowledging that. It was a very similar discussion with Higgins versus Chase the year prior.
>> Yeah, I'm the same way. I have Lamb first and then I have Pickkins at the 23 turn. And I'll say too, just to kind of clean up, I was talking about the playoff run in that 2024 year. T had 40.1 PPR points in week 17. He had 11 catches, 131 yards, three touchdowns. Just
>> monster.
>> He shattered dreams on that week 17. Uh but that's just what he can do in this offense. like he catches like he catches long bombs all day long. Uh he's a monster.
>> Could you imagine trading for him going into that week 11 game and then just getting wide receiver two, wide receiver 17, you have the down game against Dallas, but then you get top 15, top 15, and then wide receiver one overall in the playoffs. Like if you didn't have T Higgins on that playoff run, you probably didn't win your championship.
>> Yeah, I think it was him. I think it was like him and Brian Thomas were like the two guys you kind of needed uh down the stretch that year.
>> Yeah, pretty wild. I do recall actually losing a home league in the final because Higgins dropped over 40 on my head. But um T. Higgins uh drafting you know mid to like late and third like you said discount version of what George Pickins represents who goes about five to 10 spots earlier. Carninal Tate you mentioned his name and he is one of my favorite draft picks in the entirety of the board. He's a guy that I have near 30% shares of in my portfolio because at the end of the day here he's going off the board in the fringe top 60. Can I ask you right now how much better of an offense you thought that the 2025 Carolina Panthers would be than the 2026 Tennessee Titans?
>> Not really any difference. I I I bring up the same point that him and T are the same profile and you're you're getting a round discount.
>> Yeah. Like T was going in the top 40. Marvin Neighbors obviously were both top 30 picks. And call me crazy, Ron. I think I'm the only one on earth with this take. But when I actually look at the prospect profiles in terms of both of my film grades for Malik Neighbors and for Carnell Tate, they were very similar. So I'm looking at Carnell Tate now about 30 picks cheaper than where Neighbors was going into his rookie year. There's a lot of commonalities. Maybe an unproven quarterback, although I'll take the upside of what Cam Ward can be as opposed to the situation Neighbors was walking into as a rookie. And on top of that, we have the same play caller. We have Brian Dball calling the shots. We've seen Brian Dal unafraid to trust a rookie wide receiver. one rookie overall offensive piece in his offensive equation in the past. We saw it with Tyrone Tracy. We saw with Malik Neighbors. If you're good enough as a rookie, Ryan Dball has no issues putting you on the field. And if Cam Ward does take a year two step, he feels more comfortable behind the offensive line. We saw how he played down the stretch versus in the early portion of the year, clear signs of a quarterback that was progressing. Even if he's like the 23rd best quarterback in the league or the 20th best quarterback in the league and this is like the 22nd best offense, Carolina was 27th in the NFL in scoring last year and everybody views McMillan's rookie season as a success.
>> Yeah, I I'm in the same boat where uh I'll I I can't go as far as the uh the neighbors to Tate, but like in my model, I have Tate over Tedro McMillan and even if you wanted to give Tate like the eighth overall pick instead of the fourth overall pick, he still comes out ahead. like Tate was a very strong prospect in his own right. Fourth overall pick.
>> It's the same thing and we're getting him around later. I think I I think it's a mix of like maybe people are are just kind of out on rookie receivers last year of course like Ibuka crushed but uh and like Ted Ted was like a fine single or like maybe double where you got him. Like Don't me wrong he was per out metrics he was awesome but in terms of like putting in your lineup every week there's definitely a stretch early on where it wasn't great. remember and you brought up I will say the neighbors to table connection is nice though of uh his second career game he had like 18 targets. So if Tate is like that guy out the gate he will get fed uh to like par with his talent level.
>> Yeah because I feel like people understand oh top five pick probably by mid-season he's going to be a top 35ish level fantasy asset. But I feel like they're baking too much in of an early stretch cuz ultimately how do you get to 59 overall ADP? Like I like Jordan Tyson, but realistically you still have a proven target earner there with Chris Alve who was literally a wide receiver one down the stretch. On top of that, I just thought Tate was a better straightup prospect. So the fact that he's going more so in that range as opposed to like we were saying where Tedrono McMillan was going fringe top 40 level pick, I have him ranked in my top 45 and realistically when I look at the other alternative options, I can't push up Devonte Adams. I can't push up Mike Evans. I can't push up the older older wide receivers just from a horistic perspective.
>> Yeah, I I don't hate that. I have him a little bit below, but I I do think especially when we start to drift towards like manage league season and it's time to just sort of get your guys, I think he'll be closer to that group instead of me sort of just falling in line where I have him comfortably ahead of you know like the Odun Tyson like you were saying tier uh and then kind of push them up there. But I have him behind. I've been I've been referencing that group as like the the enk tier of McLaren, [laughter] Mike Evans, Devonte. I think one of those guys maybe Pops, but you're right that like the floor is the floor is nothing and Carell Tate. Uh it's really easy to see how he pays off where he's going. This is one of the only guys I always bring up Mike Clay projections. Some people hate him, some people love him. Uh but he is always super conservative. Like he has Mai Lemon ranked way past ADP. like all these rookie receivers. Connell Tate's the only guy who his projection is ahead of the ADP on underdog, which is shocking when we're talking about a rookie on underdog versus the ESPN default projections. ESPN is higher on Carnell Tate than the underdog drafters.
>> Like if I told you right now that he profiled by week three to be the clear number one target, 24% of the targets in this offense and this offense finished 21st in the NFL, I would argue he should have been a top 30 pick.
>> Yeah. Yeah. just about.
>> Yeah. So, we'll go into the next player here. Obviously, can't can't stop talking about Carnell Tate. I mean, I know especially in the Dynasty cycle, you were drafting a lot of them. I just can reference the Excontent League. I was trying to get him off your team, but you know what's up with Carnell. I'll let you take it away with RJ Harvey going out back to the AFC West.
>> Yeah, R.J. Harvey is somebody that we're in a spot right now where outside of Carnell Tate because that's another point where Carnell Tate I feel like because he's even though he's a rookie he doesn't have the same amount of hype but a lot of these young ascending players we're all very excited about right like Amari and Hampton
>> I'm drafting him but like 202 for what he did in year one is pretty absurd and then we have Henderson same deal we're like when we sit down for week one running back rankings we're probably going to have Arandre ahead of Henderson and yet we're drafting Henderson in the fourth round and uh Abuk pushed up and Luther Burden's pushed up on a limited route share and R.J. Harvey, a guy who finished the year super strong. Uh a guy who's heading into year two where when we're talking about running back's career trajectories, year two is always the biggest step. Whether that's uh Beison going into year two, whether that's Gibbs into year two, and you can even go back. Now, don't get me wrong, Harvey is nowhere near the prospect of these guys. But I remember a time where Melvin Gordon was so bad as a rookie that then year two, it was actually similar profile, not from a receiving standpoint, but from a he was pretty bad as a rookie. We're just going to draft him in like the eighth round and see what happens. Melvin Gordon ended up popping off that year. And with R.J. Harvey,
>> there's just so much to like with him as a receiver that I just have to see it through. Uh last year he had the third most receiving touchdowns for a running back, sixth best passer rating when targeted, sixth most receiving first downs, eighth most receptions, eighth most receiving yards, 12th best yards per out run in a room where he's like splitting time with Dobbins and then there's like some annoying Jal Mclofflin stuff happening and uh whatever else Shawn Payeyton throws at you where I just think we could see him take a step forward. I know Jonah Coleman's there. It's just it's rare for these day three guys to take over right away. Hey, don't me wrong, it could be a scatabo where he's just a monster out the gate, but it could also be uh similar to Tuton last year where Tuton was fun, but you never really put him in your lineup uh with confidence, you know? So, I could see RJ Harvey taking a step forward and then even even if he can't kind of take a step forward as a rusher because that's kind of what we're hoping for is the receiving is already there. He already showcased the ceiling once JK Dobbins went down in year two, can the rushing improve more? But I think there is some like floor here where we're drafting him in the RB30s.
>> Not quite cuz what Kenneth Gamal did last year was sort of absurd to have like 70 catches and 700 yards for a running back. But could he have enough of a receiving role that even in a messy offense, if he's in the Broncos offense with this offensive line with Shawn Payeyton, if he got like 60 plus catches, even in a a rotational role where he's not the Bellcow, I think that he could still pay off there. So, we're talking about like young breakout potential players. I think R.J. Harvey is one of the more reasonably priced options.
>> Yeah, I think from a heristics perspective that makes total sense. Year two player, impressive receiving profile. I'm a little bit more comparatively lower just because I am more optimistic about JK Dobbins coming back. We did see the rush here kind of favor him. And I do think Jonah Coleman's profile is more so a guy that can be a full-fledged three down back as opposed to a guy that maybe is more sheltered into between the tackles role. you kind of mentioned it, but the way I kind of view the Coleman versus Harvey discussion really does remind me of Scataboo versus Tracy last year. And I would say I was comparably uh comparably higher on Tracy versus Harvey than maybe I was Scataboo versus Coleman. Like I am more optimistic about Coleman than I was Scataboo. I was more optimistic than I was about Tracy in regards to Harvey. But I will acknowledge even though despite I'm lower on HarJ Harvey, when it works out, it works out massively because you also mentioned just how this offense can function, when you don't have a proven target earner at tight end, it'll directly correlate to more backfield targets. And if R.J. Harvey is able to work on third and four longer on those, you know, legitimate pass bro type of downs. We could see a guy that can legitimately average four catches, 45 yards per game. And like you said, he does take a step up as a runner if that carry total does go up. There's plenty of upside for an offense that clearly showed to be one of the best in the NFL last year.
>> Yeah, I'm hoping this could be one of those fun like, you know, you think of Shawn Payeyton, Darren Sprouls, uh, Pierre Thomas, like just give me one of those funky years that we look back on. Uh, I I could see it.
>> And it's so funny you mentioned that archetype of running back because I genuinely believe one of the best league winners on the board. And when I say league winner, obviously I'm talking relative. Like you're not taking a guy past pick 50 thinking, "Oh my god, he's guaranteed guaranteed to be a top five guy." But if I can tell you that a guy is pretty locked in, in my opinion, to be a mid RB2 or better, and you can get him round seven, 75th overall pick around kind of where Jaylen Warren's going, I'd be all in. Jaylen Warren 74.3 off the board. He's the RB28. And I'm just really optimistic about the direction this offense is going in. Now, we could talk about what happened this off season. Kenny Gainwell was a big pest in this backfield last year. He ends up going to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Pittsburgh, they go from the old rug-of-the-mill defensive identity. You lose Mike Tomlin. What do you do? You hire the 11 personnel man himself with Mike McCarthy. I think this offense wants to throw the football a ton. We saw kind of what the football terrorism looked like last year with Arthur Smith. Mike McCarthy, I get it. He's kind of had a stigma on his name. People kind of saw how the end of the Dallas tenure looked. They lose Dak Prescott. Offense isn't really looking the same. Cowboys move on to Brian Shanheimimer the next off seasonason. But Mike McCarthy is a proven offensive coach. 13 of his 18 years as a head coach, this team has had a 60 plus% team pass rate. And four of the five years in Dallas, his team was at above 60%. On top of that, also a track record of scoring points. Nine of his 13 seasons in Green Bay, they were a top 10 scoring offense. And he helped Dallas to a top five scoring offense in each of the years Dak was healthy. Look, I'm not making the exact one toone comparison. I do believe the Cowboys offenses had more talent. The old school Green Bay offenses absolutely had more talent, but going from where the Steelers were in terms of their scheme, in terms of their identity to what the offense could potentially look like with Mike McCarthy and Aaron Rodgers, they're one of the teams I look at like, what if they're just sneakily the 12th best offense in the league this year?
>> Dude, I have been all over the Steelers myself. Uh I I I hate that I had to do this the other I was talking like wide receivers I can't stop drafting. Someone I kind of had to snub for this video was Michael Pitman. Like I'm actually drafting a lot of Michael Pitman. Uh you bring up Mike McCarthy. I think that it'll help that they're going to score more. They're going to pass more. But uh even in terms of like offensive plays per game, he has been faster even though he's he's it's so funny because his perception is like fat schlub old guy. Uh whereas like McCarthy is almost forward thinking where he passed the ball so much on Dallas. was fifth, second, eighth, 2nd, second in offensive plays per game. Even if you go back to the gap where we go to Green Bay, it's eighth, 20th, 13th, 19th, or ninth, which is all much better than their 28th like super slow, grueling pace last year. I really like Jaylen Warren as well. He's somebody I'm drafting a ton of. This offense, I'm with you that like this is if it's not the Bears or the Jaguars in terms of offenses to bet on, uh the Steelers are fun. They're adding to the offensive line, too. They got Big Max, uh Jennings Dunker, who I thought like should have been maybe a second. Now, here's [laughter] the thing. I I didn't watch a snap of his
>> Yeah. I didn't watch a snap of what he did on the field, but you give me a ginger guy with the mullet and uh the protein shakes and the PB&Js and I'm dude out of Iowa, I'm I'm all in.
>> Yeah. Joining like Zack Frasier and uh who's the tackle they took a couple year? Troy Fatanu from Washington. Like they've invested a lot of capital into that.
>> Yeah. who's like damn near a tackle if he needs to be.
>> Like they have so much firepower to be able to run the football too. Obviously from a pure pass rate perspective, we expect him to throw the football more. But I also think just being able to marry the run game to the passing game, having you know two backs that you depend on. Yeah, obviously you lose gain well, you replace him with Rico Dattle. I do think that Jaylen Warren's not going to all of a sudden have an 80% opportunity share. Like I do think D will have his role will occupy a lot of between the tackles touches. But the reason why I'm so excited is just the overall archetype of back complementing War in this backfield because we saw last year 67% of Rogers total passes Ron traveled less than 10 yards. 2100 of nearly 3500 passing yards traveled less than 10 yards. Kenneth Gainwell weeks 11 on averaged 17.8 KPR points per game while getting less than eight carries per game. Rico Dattle, he very well could have a significant between the tackles role. He could very well have 12 to 14 carries per game. But if Jaylen Warren is occupying the Kenny Gainwall role and instead of eight carries per game is giving you 13 carries per game, all of a sudden you got a guy averaging 16 points per game.
>> Yeah. And I I'll say it as a guy who watched my fair share of Rogers in New York. He has no interest in getting sacked at this point. He had the fastest time to throw last year. like he is he is now in the range of like if he's even getting sniffed by a defensive lineman like he's just chucking it to the running back. So there there's a lot of opportunity in that area of the field.
>> Yeah. I mean Jaylen Mo I I don't like many running back picks once you get past round five because I do think the sweet spot of like your Scataboo, your Montgomery, your Swift, your Tuton, you know, guys in that range. I do think there is a slight drop off but Warren's the only name realistically between round six and eight that I'm even clicking.
>> Yeah. Uh he he's my most drafted Steeler right now, but like I said, like I'm drafting a lot of Pitman. I'm drafting a lot of Warren. Uh I hate to say it, but yeah, the Steelers offense is fun with McCarthy, man. I really do think not even just an Arthur Smith thing, but I almost think like Mike Tomlin's like style is very like hide the offense and just play defense.
>> Yeah, 100%. Uh but you mentioned a Pitman and a Warren. We'll go to a team last year that rostered Michael Pitman and a different Warren. the guy that is the biggest winner I would argue given the offseason cycle. Um I'll let you take it away with Josh Downs, a guy that I have over 11% of I realistically think once you're in the 80s and the 90s and you that you know top end wide receiver upside. I don't think there's many better clicks than Josh DS.
>> Yeah, I'm taking a lot of Josh Downs even in half PPR where I think in full PPR he's definitely a better pick just given his archetype of like a lower A dot uh high reception play. But we're now in a spot Michael Hman goes to the Steelers. Alec Pierce dealing with some kind of ankle injury still. And this just has to be it for Josh DS where there's just no way they're going to put Ashton Dulan or uh rookie Dion Burks or really the the main concern would be Nick Westbrook AE in two wide receiver sets, but he's gotten such little buzz at this point that I just don't buy it. And I also just don't think it's viable to run a 12 personnel where I can't even name the backup tight end. I guess it would be Moi Cox, right? Something like it'd be like Moi. Are you going to tell me a 12 personnel of Moali Cox and Nick Westper Aune is going to be out there a bunch? It's just it's tough. I don't know how you can run an offense that way.
>> Hey, maybe if they had Austin Hooper, it would have been a a little bit more of a concern.
>> Yeah, if they if they [laughter] had anything anything else, uh you could sell me on it. But now we're talking like Josh Downs, this is it. Even last year when like Pitman had a solid year, Pierce one of the most efficient wide receiver seasons really ever. Uh he led the Colts in first downs per run, Josh Downs. He had the best targets per run among all those receivers in terms of reception perception, 82nd verse man, 76 percentile vers zone, 96 verse press, which hints that he could play on the on the perimeter, but I think it's also a run blocking issue with Jonathan Taylor. So, we'll see what happens, but I think he's either going to be playing on two wide receiver sets or they're just going to revert back to 11 personnel like they did prior to 2025. They were much more of a three wide receiver set team. So, we already know on a per route basis what Josh Downs can do. You can buy into it a little bit as well of like Daniel Jones off the Achilles. Is he going to want to drive the ball downfield as much? Is he going to want to stick in the pocket for that long to let things develop downfield? I just think he could kind of be Don Jones best friend and it wouldn't shock me for him to like touch a 100 plus catches this year. Uh it's going to be tough, you know, because I I haven't mentioned Tyler Tyler Warren. They definitely overlap in a similar part of the field, but I think they both can eat uh this season.
>> Yeah, like we saw it two years ago when it was Pitman's uh Pitman and DS. They were operating that inter mediate part of the field. Last year, unfortunately, with Josh DS, he was impacted by Tyler Warren. He was impacted by Michael Pitman. two guys that were eating in that intermediate portion of the field. Now, without Pitman occupying that role, like we've seen evidence of him being able to command 7.6 targets per game, command over 57 receiving yards per game. One of my favorite stats, fun fact, by the way, 2.21 yards per outr run in that 2024 season. That 13.11 points per game, Ron, actually was outscoring what Z Flowers was giving you in 2024. So, that was one of my favorite stats to bring up going into last season. Obviously, that kind of fell flat uh flat on its face because we saw Alec Pierce break out, we saw Tyler Ward occupy the snaps, not really much left over for Josh DS, but I do think there's significant opportunity and like you said, Daniel Jones is not going to be able to stretch the ball vertically, whether that's because of his recovery from the Achilles or also the fact that his best vertical wide receiver is also coming off of ankle surgery.
>> Yeah. And uh I didn't mention it, but they also shipped away Ady Mitchell who wasn't producing, but he was taking away routes and targets last year. Uh, so now it there's really nothing. Uh, really the only concern is like Keenan Allen or Debo Samuel or something like that, but you could say that about any wide receiver in this range. He had Digs, too. Like any wide receiver in wide receiver 40 on, you're like, I I hope they don't sign that guy.
>> Yeah, I swear every like fringe wide receiver to in fantasy, everybody's just like holding their breath like, "Please don't sign Stefon Diggs. I'm drafting Antonio Williams. I'm drafting Josh DS." Insert wide receiver that maybe isn't as quote unquote proven as a two. and Stefon Diggs, Debo Samuel, guys like that. I mean, Brandon Iuk a little bit less to this degree because it just seems like he's a knucklehead at this point, but you're always going to have that narrative for sure.
>> Yeah, exactly.
>> Yeah. But, uh, you mentioned Josh DS. We'll head on over to my fourth player and we will be going into Sam Leaporta. Very simple rationale here. Uh, you look at across Vegas projections, Lions are going to be a top five projected offense, even reaching upwards of number one on some places, number two on some places. When you look at the overall division, the competitive nature of it, the fact that the Detroit defense last year bottomed out to the 22nd scoring defense in the league, and you lose a power back like David Montgomery, a lot of people just fail to contextualize that last year, despite dealing with a bad back, he was the tight end seven and averaged nearly 12 PPR points per game. And when he was doing that in the first nine weeks of the year, if you recall, Jameson Williams was one of the biggest busts in fantasy until Sam Leaporta went down. Once Sam Laapora went down, we saw Jameson Williams legitimately be what? Top five, top eight wide receiver down the stretch. You could have matched the upside that Jameson Williams had, but people aren't acknowledging that it didn't come when Sam Leaporta was on the field. And by all accounts this offseason, it sounds like Sam Leaport is back as healthy.
>> Yeah. And it also came they they fired their OC and then Dan Campbell started calling the plays. And now we have Drew Ping who of course had the McBride year last year which we were talking pre-show we're not even we're not that high on Trey McBride but I will give him respect. It was like a top five PPR season ever is what Trey McBride did last year. I don't think that that's fully registered for everybody that like that's going to be a year that is going to be like a trivia answer uh for years to come. But it's really simple with Leaportan as a rookie who's a tight end three in points per game. He scored 10 touchdowns. He's only scored 10 touchdowns since that season. But if he in this offense, if he can just see a touchdown spike, all of a sudden, Leaporta is going to crush. And even if not, he's been the tight end three to the tight end seven or what? Tight end nine in 2024 and you're drafting is like the tight end seven now. Like he he is going to be in that range pretty much no matter what.
>> Yeah. Like this guy in his three years in the NFL has been 10.9 PPR points per game or more each year. Now, obviously, for it to pay off from a true upside perspective, you probably need him closer to that tight end 3 14.1 points per game as a rookie, but you kind of mentioned it. I do see that really being the case this year. Drew Pig, we know he knows how to use the tight end position. I mentioned the drop off in terms of points per game, which the defense could give up. What if they fall inherently from the 22nd to the
27th offense or defense in the league? We know inherently that the Lions have wanted to run the football and I do think even expected going into this year, Jir Gibbs, he's going to get a big workload. Isaiah Pekco, he is going to get some carries, but if the defense isn't as good, we saw how the Arizona Cardinals were able to pivot last year with a bad defense to be the single most pass heavy offense in the league, instead of 32, 33 attempts per game, what if we do get the Jared Goff spike? What if it is 36, 37? Then all of a sudden, Sam LaPorta is in line to potentially catch eight to 10 touchdowns.
Yeah, that's all you're looking for. If that touchdown spikes, man, like even I'm looking at the Mike Clay projections. Even with just five touchdowns, he's the tight end six. That goes to 10 touchdowns and all of a sudden, like it's he he's right there after, you know, the the top three for me.
And I mean, last year too, even despite that injury, four top five weeks in those nine games, like we go through here, uh it started the season slow, but then you see three touchdowns in his final five games, five catches, 92 yards, five for 55. Obviously the down week against Tampa and then finishes strong at the end of the year. Like I see this type of player like a guy who was tight end four in three of those final five weeks who was consistently involved who is going to be part of an offense that's probably going to score 26 plus points per game and I think why is he going 97 off the board when I go through the opportunity bundles and I can take a two for two every single time I'll be taking Brian Thomas Jr. and Sam LaPorta instead of Tyler Boyd and Jaden Reed.
Yeah, I think that that's fair. I would say the only reason I'm not taking LaPorta is cuz I also like to sprinkle in some Pitts in that area, but uh I'm I'm with you that I I honestly just kind of like that tier in general. You can talk me into Fano, you can talk me into Pitts, LaPorta. Uh it's a nice little pocket.
Yeah, definitely a nice price at that portion of the tight ends. I would say the tier three guys cuz based off where everybody goes, it's almost like tier one you got Bowers and McBride. Tier two, you got Laporta on his own and maybe you sneak Warren kind of in his own mini tier. And then after that it's like Tucker Craft, Kyle Pitts, Sam LaPorta, Harold Fano. And it's like if I can getting if I'm getting any of those guys after pick 80, I almost just want to wait at tight end if I don't get Laporta because I do think Tyler Warren profiles closer to those guys than he maybe does those top three.
Yeah, I I'd probably agree where he is definitely pushed up a little bit. Uh I think just in terms of like raw projections he's definitely closer to like Pitts, LaPorta, Fano and he doesn't have a good enough like Laporta even if you want to even if you want to kind of doubt even if you just want to copy and paste last year's points per game just in a way better offense. The Colts, they're they're one that's actually all over the place of like what you think could happen where like when Daniel Jones was healthy last year they were like unsustainably good. They they dropped like 25 plus or maybe like 400 plus yards on the Broncos defense. Like they were legit. Uh, I'm all in on Shane Steichen because I saw it, but like now we're trusting off the Achilles. Like are they going to be a fringe top 20 offense? Are they gonna be fringe top 10? Uh, I really don't know. It's It's tough because they have a lot of talent, too.
Yeah, I think that's the best way to put it because uh again, that's another topic we brought up on the offenses video yesterday uh by the time you guys are recording this. You can watch that back of course as well. But the Colts offense is just so hard to peg down because they were the single most efficient offense when Daniel Jones is healthy. Even when you calculate in, okay, maybe because Daniel Jones isn't entering the year healthy, maybe we take the overall look of what the offense was on the year.
Even when you account for after Daniel Jones got hurt, they were the number four offense in EPA. They were scoring 27 points per game, like it's truly remarkable. Obviously, you got to give them got to give your flowers to Shane Steichen.
I think the way I'm approaching it is I think because you have Shane Steichen, your floor can't be any lower than like the 18th best offense. But do I fully trust the stretch that I saw last year? Given the fact that Daniel Jones has shown in the past to be volatile, like we saw that one year with the Giants, people were saying, "Is this a $45 million quarterback?" The following year, he wasn't even looked at as the Giants long-term starter. Like, I think there is risk. There is volatility because I just don't trust Daniel Jones. But at the same time, even if you're getting a bad Daniel Jones, you're probably still getting a top 18, top 20 offense, kind of like we saw what we saw with Kyle Shanahan in the 49ers stretch.
Yeah, I think that that makes a lot of sense. I'm just looking at it, dude. They won 29 to 28 versus the Broncos. Daniel Jones had 316 passing yards, one touchdown, no picks, only one sack. He was he was playing balls off last year, man. I will I mean, they paid him in the offseason. So, we'll see.
Yeah, he definitely was playing his balls off. He deserved that contract. But we'll just see if he can be a semblance of that type of player post Achilles cuz as we kind of saw with Cousins with Aaron Rodgers again also quarterbacks that didn't rely upon their legs as much. Daniel Jones has been a guy that we've consistently called a top 10 level mobility quarterback in the league.
Yeah. And it's his it's his like push-off leg. I think it's his right leg.
Yeah. Which is I think a bigger issue than if it was his front leg. So, it's just it they have a lot of confidence in their medical staff, man, is what I would say.
For sure. Uh, but I mean, I mentioned obviously we're talking about the quarterback position. I mentioned just how much of a floor the 49ers offense has with Kyle Shanahan. Well, he finally does have a quarterback and this quarterback is a young quarterback making a ton of money coming off arguably his best season in the NFL. I'll let you take it away with Brock Purdy.
Yeah, Brock Purdy. It's funny because I I was I was skeptical when he first was like popping up. It's like, oh well, Jimmy G did this exact thing. Like Shanahan's a puppeteer, but Purdy is so good, man. Even last year.
Uh, what is what do you guys have his points per game at last year?
Was it 20 plus? 19.7?
So 19.71. That also accounts for like for example like the Carolina game, the Seattle game. I I can't see I don't think his snap share is posted here, but which game did he leave early in? Was it Jacksonville left early?
I want to say yes.
Um, regardless though, even if you account for the fact he may or may not have not played this game or one of these games in totality, the fact that you're getting a 19.7 point per game producer who hasn't even turned 27 yet and he's going off the board as the quarterback 12, ton of value for him to be able to pay off.
Yeah. And we're seeing even that like rushing total number is kind of coming up too, right? 4.4 carries per game in 2024, 3.7 last year, some touchdowns. Uh I believe like over his last 40 games, so this is like the last two or three essentially since he became the starter on the 49ers. He's at 18.5 points per game. That's behind only Josh Allen, Lamar, Jalen Hurts, Jaylen Daniels, Joe Burrow over that stretch. In terms of EPA per play over that stretch, he is first ahead of Josh Allen, Jordan Love, Lamar Jackson, Jared Goff, Drake May, Dak Prescott, Stafford, Mahomes, Burrow. Uh it's pretty unreal. It's just that when he plays with Kyle Shanahan and he is the main quarterback there throwing the passes, he is going to flirt with 20 plus points per game, you can get him even cheaper than like the Justin Herbert, Trevor Lawrence tier, which I love, don't get me wrong, but
I don't see Purdy as like a tier below those guys. So, I just end up drafting Purdy as like my QB1 or QB2 a lot.
Yeah. Um, I'm relatively high on Purdy. I have him at 94, third highest on the site. Um, obviously everybody kind of in lockstep, but Zach obviously a little higher here at 71. Um, yeah, I think realistically you're looking at a guy that can project anywhere from a back-end quarterback one to a low-end quarterback one, and you're getting that off the board as the quarterback 12, literally what I would describe probably as his floor. The only thing you're really looking at is, okay, hopefully we can get closer to 33, 34 attempts per game, which I also think is in the range of outcomes because Christian McCaffrey's efficiency as a rusher completely went downhill.
Yeah. And you could probably speak better on on the defense as well, but I don't know that the defense is as good as it's been. I guess Fred Warner's coming back healthy. Uh I think what Bosa got hurt. He does also have it's pretty crazy. He leads like all-time NFL in terms of adjusted net yards per attempt. Uh Shanahan like it's essentially it's Jimmy G, but imagine Jimmy G was actually good and he could scramble. And then like the the weapons are kind of shaky case by case, but the sum of the whole like he's going to find something between Mike Evans, McCaffrey, Kittle, and Ricky Pearsall. It just kind of comes down to who's healthy and who actually produces. I think one of those and then did I mention I mentioned McCaffrey, but I think one or two of those guys are going to have good seasons in the Niners offense. Like Shanahan just scores points, his quarterback scores points. Uh and Purdy's just been exceptional.
Yeah, someone's take on Purdy is realistically going to be what it comes down to where they project their passing volume. Like if they think, oh well, McCaffrey is going to be a better efficient runner and it might plateau back down to sub 28. Okay, maybe you're lower on Purdy. But A, you're always getting the elite efficiency knowing the offense, knowing the weapons score. B, I'm more on the side like we've kind of been talking about where if McCaffrey is falling off efficiency wise and we have so many capable wide receivers. We got Mike Evans, we got Ricky Pearsall, George Kittle, it sounds like he's making faster recovery off the speed bridge uh uh surgery he had on his Achilles. We have Christian McCaffrey definitely a better receiver than rusher at this point. And then we're also projecting behind them like they drafted Caleb Williams, he has a little bit of a receiving profile. If he wins the second job, maybe we see, you know, a guy like Jordan Mason become obsolete. I ultimately think though when we're looking at that versus the main RB2 we've had in the past, the Jordan Mason types, even the Brian Robinson type we had last year, there's definitely a more of a question mark in the number two running back on San Francisco than even we've seen in the past.
Yeah, it it's truly I don't know who it is. Like it's uh every year they they like they take somebody and then uh somebody just kind of gets tossed to the side. I I think we don't even know what's going on with Isaac Guerendo these days. But yeah, like when we're talking about the 49ers, like I was just looking, they did have like they've been so low in passing volume. Clay has them at 18th most pass attempts and the defense at 18th best in terms of the units. So I'm not saying that these are gospel. I'm just saying that if we can crack into the top 20 pass attempts and then the defense also regresses and then that could even if they have to start playing catch-up on teams like the Rams and the Seahawks in their division, uh things get interesting. Uh this could be like a the 49ers offense needs to will them to the playoffs sort of season.
Look at the division too, man. You got what two other teams projected for over 12 wins next year with the 49ers with the Rams and with the Seahawks. Like that division is going to be the best in football. Even when we look at the Cardinals, like the Cardinals might even put up a fight on the other end. We saw them scoring points with Kyler Murray. Maybe we do get more shootout script or shootout scripts overall in the division because if I'm talking about maybe the lowest overall projected over under being a game against Arizona, who was just historically such a bad defense last year, you're probably set up for a lot of fantasy points in that division.
Yeah. And I I hate to schedule watch, but they get to be in a dome with the Rams. They get to be uh in a dome with Atlanta this year. in a Dome versus Dallas, uh, in a dome versus the Chargers, like even like non-divisional opponents. So, uh, they they're fun, man. I could see this being a year where it's like Shanahan puts a team on his back.
Like, isn't Bosa coming off an injury? Fred Warner coming off an injury, Dre Greenlaw's on this team, which I I still don't know how he's been off of the Achilles there from the Super Bowl.
Uh, I don't even know. I don't even really know their their secondary. like they lost the um who the heck is the guy that they lost to uh Hufanga to the the Broncos. Like I don't know.
This defense isn't really what it's been. I I feel at least on paper. I'm not I'll be honest like fantasy is by uh Forte, but this doesn't seem like it's going to be one of those, you know, classic Niners defenses when they were just rolling.
Yeah. And we saw a lot of the big point outings they gave up, the 41, the 20, the 26, the 37, the 48, the 42 realistically happen after the defense got injured. And we don't know what those guys are going to look like post injury.
Yeah. And I was like they don't even really have uh they they've had these like mercenaries in the past where I was looking like Chase, they had Chase Young for a season like [laughter] when they traded for Chase Young. And maybe they maybe they make a splash at the deadline but right now their defense is like kind of pedestrian.
What if they're like this the surprise Max Crosby team? They throw a couple ones at him. They're like pass rush.
That would be shocking.
I can see that because I think Mike Williams also tore his ACL too. Who's their former first-rounder now? Yeah, dude. The the substitution it's catching up.
I pray for Mike Evans's hamstrings.
Yeah. [laughter]
Um, but we'll transition off of Brock Purdy, my fifth and final player. Uh, the 10th of the video, we'll be going on to my beloved Jonathan Brooks. And I've had a troubled relationship with Jonathan Brooks. He was a guy I drafted a lot in 2024 after he was a second round pick. I looked at the timeline off of that first ACL tear. I'm like, "Yeah, once he gets into the league, he's going to take that backfield by storm." The only thing he took by storm is as soon as he made a cut, he'd re-tore that knee. Unfortunate for Jonathan Brooks, cuz I do think the opportunity was there. Like, realistically, we've only seen what, a nine carry total, uh, nine carries, 22 yards in his NFL career. So, if anybody were to tell you right now that they know automatically that Jonathan Brooks is going to be an elite running back or Jonathan Brooks is going to be a terrible running back, they are lying to your face. There is no sample size at this point in the NFL to point otherwise. So all we can look at at Jonathan Brooks is what the prospect profile was and what he could represent in a backfield that I realistically think is more open than people want to believe. People have looked at the Chuba Hubbard 2024 year and they say wow Chuba Hubbard he was the clear workhorse. 2025 he was expected to be the workhorse gets hurt. That's why he lost his job to Rico Dowdle. But I think that would also just be underplaying the trend that we've seen from Dave Canales in the past. Like I'll throw this on the screen. Ryan Heath tweeted this out, but Dave Canales has shown in the past that he is willing to adapt with his backfield. What is the hot hand? Who's playing well? Who's ultimately my best running back on a current day? And he adjusts the carry workload otherwise. We saw in 2024 when Chuba Hubbard got hot. He was outplaying Miles Sanders. He went from a 60% designed carry share in weeks one to three to week four on, he was an 81% designed carry share. He was the full-fledged workhorse on that team. Last year the inverse Chuba Hubbard wasn't playing well. Rico Dowdle last year 5.83 yards per carry in the first six weeks but only a 31% designed carry share. Week seven on we saw that jump to 61%. So I do think with Jonathan Brooks I love the prospect profile. I thought he was more of a bigger version of what Aaron Jones was. That was my comp for him coming out. The pass catching acumen, the 6' 215 pound frame, the scoring opportunity that he showed at Texas. And when we look at Chuba Hubbard last year, yeah, we can point to the fact that maybe he wasn't the same player off the injury, but it is hard to still ignore just how bad he was. He was dead last in explosive run rate. He didn't have a single explosive run. Chuba Hubbard, not a single explosive run in the 2025 season, and he ranked 47th of 49 qualified runners in yards after contact per attempt. For reference, the last time we saw Jonathan Brooks fully healthy in his last college season, we were getting nearly four yards after contact per attempt from him.
Yeah. I I I was telling you, the more that we get into this season, I need to move Brooks up because even wherever you have him, it's not high enough because what's going to happen is you need to get get the pads on. Every Panthers beat reporter is going to say that Jonathan Brooks is the greatest running back ever. He's, you know, he's looking like a a young DeAngelo Williams out there or whatever they're going to say. And then all of a sudden, Brooks is passing Hubbard in ADP. And I'll say as well, like you bring up the the rushing efficiency. Chuba Hubbard's career yards per route run is 0.85, which is just a non-starter like over his entire career. That was why I didn't like him last year. The 2024 season, his breakout season, he was at 0.51 yards per route run. Absolutely brutal. JJ Zachariason has done a lot of good work on once that yards per route run craters, usually your receiving role gets yanked. I think that's how Brooks carves his way in and then kind of like you're saying the hot hand. If he looks explosive in the passing game and then he takes a couple of runs, you know, 15 plus yards and all of a sudden, uh, by the time the by-week happens and Brooks is fully acclimated, you could have like a league-winning top 24 guy the rest of the season. So, uh, his upside's super clear and, um, there's definitely kind of a ships passing in the night happening right now where even in ADP in my rankings and everybody's rankings, it's Chuba Hubbard, it's John Brooks, and they're going to be, uh, I think about equal by the time we get to week one.
I agree. Uh, because you mentioned it, Chuba Hubbard's not going to be a full-fledged layoff back. And if there's one thing you can compliment Jonathan Brooks on, maybe you were lower on him as a pure roster. Maybe you said, "Oh, one year of a workload at Texas, he was a backup last year, I don't trust it." The only thing that people can't refute is how good of a receiving profile he had. 75.3 PFF receiving grade was third in his respective class and he had a 1.43 yards per route run which was second in his 2024 class. So even if Chuba Hubbard does maintain an overall, let's just say 55% carry share, if Jonathan Brooks is getting those third down snaps, is getting those pass-catching snaps, he's going to be the more valuable player in fantasy. and the fact that I can't say for certain that Chuba Hubbard's going to hold on to a 55% 60% type of carry share if Jonathan Brooks wrestles 55, 60 maybe even more percent because he just shows to be that college Jonathan Brooks that we know to love the college Jonathan Brooks that this exact team this exact regime traded up into the top 50 to make the first selected running back for who's to say this guy can't return as a top 50 overall player in fantasy.
Yeah and I I'll add too I I um I recorded a video the BDG guys and uh Nick actually had Brooks as one of his guys like that he snuck in there.
Uh the Panthers offensive line is like maybe the most underrated in the NFL. I was looking at uh
They were good.
The FB Insights Twitter account kind of compiled, you know, Mike Clay, Warren Sharp, four for four. The Panthers are the seventh best by average composite score. I was saying too, look, I'm not an offensive line guy. Like that's definitely very in the weeds, but their tackle room is pretty absurd. It's like I Rasheed Walker, Ikem Ekwonu, Atonu Freeling, who they just drafted. And then I'm leaving I'm leaving a guy out who's actually
Uh No, I said Ikem Ekwonu. I said Rasheed Walker. Oh, um Taylor Moton.
Taylor Moton. That's the other one. So then like they have like four legit tackles. Uh they have Robert Hunt from the Dolphins as well. Like it's a it's a real deal offensive line.
They got Cade Mays too now if I'm not mistaken.
Uh I think you're right. I think you're right.
Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, cuz I remember fully uh watching that game last year, middle of the season, Carolina versus Dallas, and watching that Carolina Panthers run our offensive line run us over for the final eight or nine minutes of that game. So, you put Jonathan Brooks in that situation. Obviously, I'll give Rico Dowdle his flowers. In the middle portion of last year, for whatever reason, the guy looked like a legitimate top five, top 10 NFL running back. But with respect to Rico Dowdle, if Rico Dowdle's that valuable in fantasy and you're getting Jonathan Brooks anywhere close to his prospect profile with a three down workload, oh buddy, sky's the limit. And I really feel like the only question mark right now that people still have is, "Oh, well, he had two ACL tears. How's it going to look like?" Well, we actually had Dr. James Freddy on the channel about three weeks ago. I think uh Cory and him did a segment. They talked about Jonathan Brooks. I believe they said on that video that on average 60 plus percent of players in Jonathan Brooks' position, two multiple ACL tears do fully recover. On top of that, there's also this from Jeff Mueller, but he doesn't even look at it as two separate ACL tears. He actually looks at it as the first ACL tear was a botched surgery and the second one actually cleaned it up. So I will put that on the uh that tweet on the screen highlighted this portion but basically says in the .3 typically you see an increase anywhere from 16 to 20 months post revision Brooks will be about 21 months from his second surgery uh when week one hits. On top of that I'm not viewing this situation as a typical player A had two ACL tears he's cooked but rather that they fixed a procedure that initially failed.
Yeah, and Nick brought it up too that uh Frank Gore tore his ACL twice in college and then had the longest career ever for a running back. So, I'm not saying that that's what Brooks is going to be, but not going to pretend to be like it's impossible. I will say as well, Brooks should probably lawyer up and sue over a botched ACL tear if that or surgery if that's a real thing. But, uh that's for another day.
Yeah, that uh if that actually is an issue. I I I think the same surgeon uh if I'm not mistaken was the one. Wait, let me see. For no, first one was by Dr. Cooper. Uh, according to Jeff, the second one was by Dr. Neil ElAttrache, which
I was going to say Neil, that's a name that I know. The first one I do not know.
Yeah, I know. Uh, Dr. Neil is well known for his Achilles op. So, uh, I'll trust them on the ACL capacity as well.
Yeah, I I'll I'll go with that.
For sure. But that is the 10 players. Ron, appreciate you for joining us today. Just talking some football, talking some team, and letting everybody know exactly how you're approaching these drafts right now.
Of course, man. Thanks for having me on. Always good to chop it up with Danny over here at the Stock Exchange. Just good to uh hop on the mic and talk ball. Uh and just it's that time of year, man. It's that time of year. Drafts are happening. It's July. Training camp's coming up. It It's all coming.
For sure. And let the people know, Ron. Obviously, if they've watched the channel before, they're probably familiar with the YouTube channel, but let you take it away. Your Twitter, your YouTube, wherever they can find your work, of course.
Yes, sir. You can find me uh Ron Stewart on YouTube. I'll be doing uh similar stuff to here. We're just, you know, redraft fantasy football, talking that all summer long. We'll be doing streams every day in August. Uh then you can find me over on Twitter where I'll be honest, my Twitter, it's football, but I'm also ranting about USA Soccer and whatever else is going on. Uh Ron Stewart on Twitter.
For sure. And if you guys have made it throughout the video, obviously I was sharing uh all these player rankings, the bar graphs, everything in the whole nine yards over on Flock Fan. So you guys can see on the screen, promo code FSE will get you 30% off of a year-long subscription as well as a Dynasty Decisions 2.0. So go check it out. Go take advantage of that deal. But with that being said, peace out. We'll talk to you soon.