Transcription
The first reason is October 29th and its consolidation. The second, if you look at the reasons, October 30th is an even bigger reason. So, on October 29th, they have their monthly contract expiry. There is a saying in the world of investment. Profit in the bank is better than profit in the books. So, in a way, it is consolidation. It had fallen to 4000. You might remember that recently gold surged, gold and silver surged due to China and US trade tensions. If anything happens anywhere, they immediately threaten to impose tariffs. Canada showed some video yesterday or the day before, and they said that we will impose another 10% tariff on you. I am afraid that if someone in my own house makes a mistake, I will impose a tariff on you. They have become so accustomed to imposing tariffs. In this, Japan, Europe, who are traditional allies of America, have also sold gold. So, it is natural that when there is selling pressure, prices fall a little. Here, I think these two forces are at play, that selling has become a bit dominant. Along with that, these two reasons that I mentioned earlier also became dominant, and you saw this correction happening from here. Investors should keep an eye on this news because gold does not have a balance sheet, Vikrant. Hello, I am Vikrant Yadav, and you are watching your own channel, The Swatantra. Today, financial expert Sharad Kohli ji is joining us once again. Sharad ji, a very warm welcome to you once again on The Swatantra, and we are connecting for the first time after Diwali, so many congratulations to you. Hello Vikrant, and my greetings to all the viewers, followers, and viewers of The Swatantra, and best wishes for Diwali and all the festivals thereafter. Sharad ji, since you have come, the first question in the minds of all the viewers will be, what happened that in the last week or 10 days, there has been such a big fall in gold prices, a fall of about 31,000 in silver, and a fall of about 4-5000 in gold? What is this indicating?
This is a natural correction, and you might remember that I had spoken on your channel before that corrections will happen from time to time. Nothing goes in a single direction. Profit booking happens in it. In America, on October 29th, COMEX, as we call it, where commodity trading happens in New York, from where gold prices are set worldwide. So, on October 29th, they have their monthly contract expiry, and it had surged so much. It had reached $381. So, it is natural that those who have made profits will book their profits and take them. There is a saying in the world of investment. Profit in the bank is better than profit in the books. That is, profit that comes into your pocket is better. It is much better than what just appears on paper. So, people booked their profits. Consolidation also happens. If you also run very fast somewhere, you sit down on a chair, on the ground, on a sofa, and rest. So, in a way, it is consolidation. It had fallen to $000. After that, it recovered and by the time today is the weekend, Saturday and Sunday are closed, it recovered and stood at $11. So, the first reason is October 29th and its consolidation. The second, if you look at the reason, is October 30th, which is an even bigger reason. On the 30th, President Trump and Xi Jinping are meeting. And such an expectation is being made. That is, some traders felt that perhaps because they are meeting, something might be resolved, and some agreement might be reached between them. And if an agreement happens, then you might remember that recently gold surged, gold and silver surged due to China and US trade tensions. They were retaliating against each other. They had stopped rare minerals. There are about 17 rare minerals. In anger, Trump threatened to impose another 100% tariff on them, which has become a big weapon for him these days. If anything happens anywhere, they immediately threaten to impose tariffs. Canada showed some video yesterday or the day before, and they said that we will impose another 10% tariff on you. So, they have found a weapon like tariffs, that if someone makes a mistake, impose a tariff on them. I am afraid that if someone in my own house makes a mistake, I will impose a tariff on you. They have become so accustomed to imposing tariffs. Anyway, they had threatened. So, for this reason, geopolitical and economic uncertainty increased at the international level, that if these two largest economies of the world quarrel economically in this manner, a cold war will break out, then it will have very big ripple effects, cascading effects. Because America is the world's largest economy, China is the second largest economy. So, because of this, gold started surging due to worry. Gold and silver, as you know, we have discussed before, like uncertainty. They like unrest. Prices go up when all this happens, when world peace is disturbed or when the economy is shaken, then both these things start going up. Now, when there is a slight hope of their agreement, the ASEAN summit is happening in Malaysia. They are both going to meet there on the 30th, Thursday. In the hope that perhaps this will happen, prices will cool down a bit. It is possible that if something happens, if a deal is made, then you might see a further correction from here. But if it doesn't happen, then it will pick up its pace again. And there was a third reason as well, that there is a lobby in America. When it surged, you might remember that we and many others discussed this that it could replace the US dollar. The US dollar was weakening. Due to Trump's economic policies, the weakness of the dollar and the American economy was becoming visible. So, the dominance of the dollar, the hegemony of the dollar, the supremacy of the dollar seemed to be in danger. So, gold was being seen as an alternative measure of value worldwide, and that is why the central banks of the world were selling their investments in American treasuries and investing in gold. So, America has some lobby there, they became worried about what will happen to their dollar. So, a lobby there started selling gold and tried to bring down the price of gold. In this, Japan, Europe, who are traditional allies of America, have also sold gold. So, it is natural that when there is selling pressure, prices fall a little. On the other hand, China has done the opposite. There has been continuous buying in gold and silver from China. So, I think these two forces were at play. Selling became a bit dominant. Along with that, these two reasons that I mentioned earlier also became dominant, and you saw this correction happening from here. I think that until October 29th-30th, this matter will remain a bit volatile. You might see some pressure in gold and silver because until the decision is made whether this deal happens or not, there will be some uncertainty in gold and silver about which direction to go, where to go. Vikrant, absolutely sir, this is exactly what I wanted to know, because the middle-class investor or someone who sees it as savings is very worried these days. They don't understand that a fall of 30-31 thousand in silver in 10 days and a fall of 9-10 thousand in gold in seven-eight days. They don't understand whether this is a correction or a dip, when to invest, when to buy again. Now, since the Diwali festive season is over and the wedding season has started, people are waiting day by day, wondering whether to buy today, tomorrow, or the day after. So, this confusion will clear up only after this, after the ASEAN meeting. Yes, generally, Vikrant, all your followers, viewers, and subscribers should make investment decisions after consulting their financial advisor and knowing everything. We do not give any investment advice here on this channel. We do an analysis of the situation. You should consult your financial advisor or financial consultant. However, the underlying trend of gold still appears to be bullish. The underlying trend is upwards because the other reasons, the geopolitical issues, the tariff war by Mr. Trump, the tariffs imposed worldwide, are continuing. The Russia-Ukraine war has intensified. Last night also, Russia launched a major attack on Kyiv. Ukraine launched a major attack on them. So, some missiles have been provided by the UK, and those missiles have been fired. So, that war has intensified significantly at this time, it has become fierce, and it continues. Tariff tensions remain. Besides that, if you look at other things, the US is preparing to attack Venezuela. They have also blown up one or two of their boats. So, other factors remain. So, I don't think gold will correct much from here. Although all this will depend on what happens on the 30th. As far as investors are concerned, I believe that investors should keep an eye on this news because gold does not have a balance sheet, Vikrant, by looking at which we can study how much profit this company has made, how its share will perform going forward, what its PE ratio is, what its book value is. None of this exists. Gold runs on demand and supply, and demand and supply run on this news. It's very simple. So, I would advise investors that just as Vikrant brings you information about gold and silver from time to time, you should keep watching Swatantra. An analysis can only be done based on the news, or a very highly skilled astrologer can predict it. Highly skilled, I am saying in inverted commas, because nowadays I see astrologers making predictions of all kinds everywhere. They make any prediction. They even predict whether you will sneeze in the next minute. So, therefore, you should analyze the news and the factors that move gold and silver up and down. We have discussed these factors many times. We have made lists of these factors many times. If you look at your previous videos on the channel, you will find a proper list. Keep an eye on those factors. For now, the big event I have told you about. But in the long term, in the long term, as I said before, any time is the right time for long-term investors to invest. If you are investing for the long term, for two to five years, then you don't need to think too much. Invest little by little. Invest whenever there is a correction. As for short-term traders, Vikrant, those who came as investors and became traders, I cannot give any advice or analysis for them because we will not analyze speculation. That you bought at 115 and sold at 12, bought at 125 and sold at 135. Now, there must be many people who bought at 135 as well. And now it is standing between 1225. So, they must be holding their heads. So, therefore, my advice to everyone is that these corrections will keep happening. It is very difficult to determine what the minimum level, the bottom level is. Invest little by little for a long time, and the supply of gold and silver is limited. The other factors for gold and silver are in favor of rising gold and silver prices. So, it seems that its demand will remain in the long term, and this is towards a weakening US dollar, which I see happening. Given Mr. Trump's behavior, his policies, and the decisions he makes many times, his approval ratings are also falling there, so I think the long-term trend is upwards. Sir, in the past, before Diwali and Dhanteras, when we went to Puja Mahajani and other big markets, silver was selling at a high premium. There is a premium on Diwali, but this time it was a bit more. So, at that time, traders there were saying that you should not buy silver now, you will incur a loss. The premium has to come down. You should wait a bit. But despite this, people were not listening. They were buying even then. So, I would like to ask you, do you still consider silver a good investment if seen for the long run, that it will be a good investment in the long run? See, in the long run, as I said, both gold and silver are bullish in the long run. And as for those who bought at a premium, the premium has now reduced a bit. For your information, if you talk to the dealers in Gucha Mahajani, their premium has reduced, and the gap between spot and MCX has also reduced. The premium was there because when everyone rushes in one direction, suppliers naturally take advantage of it. Now, we will give it to you for 25,000 more, 3,000 more, and when people's enthusiasm cools down a bit, the premium also goes away accordingly. So, in the long term, it is bullish. Silver is a bit more volatile because silver has higher volume, as it is traded by the kilogram. Gold and silver, gold is traded in grams or 100 grams. Whereas silver, because its price is around 1.5 lakh rupees, is traded by the kilogram. So, what happens is that when something is traded in higher volume, its volatility increases. Absolutely, gold and silver, see, if gold is the elder brother, then silver is the younger sister. People say buy silver, buy silver, they don't say buy gold. So, there is an elder brother and a younger sister. Generally, both move together. Sometimes the younger sister moves ahead, and the elder brother lags behind. Sometimes it's the opposite. The elder brother runs ahead, and the sister lags behind. In the long term, both move together. They don't separate from each other. Sometimes you see the speed going up and down. So, consider both precious metals from the same perspective. Although silver has a bit more industrial use. It is used in solar batteries, electronic products. So, its demand remains. There is also a bit more shortage of silver. As I told you before, the silver mined in 9 minutes is consumed in 6 minutes. So, there is a shortage, and given how China has held and accumulated silver in the past, it seems that more shortages will come. So, if I speak directly, there is a bit more speculation in silver, Vikrant, which is why you were seeing a higher premium in silver. But in the long term, we come back to the long term. In the long term, both move together with a certain ratio, with slight fluctuations. Sir, it is also being said that a trade deal between India and the US is also going to be finalized in the next few days, so will that also have some effect on gold and silver? It might have a little effect, but not that much, because India is not such a big trade partner for the US. Compared to China and America, there is a bilateral trade of $688 billion, which is very large. Canada, their Canada and Mexico are the two largest. After that comes China. They are the three largest trade partners. For India, America is a big trade partner. But for America, it is not such a big trade partner. You might see a slight impact on sentiment if a deal happens, but such a big impact might not occur. You might see a slight effect. Alright sir, you joined us. I know that today is Sunday and you are very busy. You have to go somewhere, but you made time. Thank you very much. Thank you. Thank you so much.