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Belarus ABANDONS Russia as Lukashenko Just SURRENDERS to Ukraine

Business Basics22:36

Transcription

In the last seven days, Vladimir Putin lost an ally, lost a dictator, and lost a believer. The dictator of Belarus, Lukashenko, just publicly defied a direct Kremlin demand. Then we have the president of Serbia, one of Russia's last remaining friends in Europe, being forced out of office. And of course, the Western converts who moved to Russia because they believed it was a Western utopia are now publicly admitting that they were lied to. The system that Putin hides behind is starting to crack.

But let's start with the Russian commander we covered in our last video. The one guy who was directly threatening a mutiny. Well, we have an update on that. And I'm sure you guys have guessed what it is. If you watched our last week's video, you remember Alexander Lunyov, the former battalion commander who recorded a viral video appealing directly to Putin demanding that the Kremlin fix the conditions on the front lines or face a military mutiny. Those were his exact words. That video got more than 50 million views and now the Kremlin has responded. Not in a way that he was expecting. Lunyov has been arrested now before he could even reach the Kremlin to talk with Putin. And according to the Russian judiciary website, so this is the court website where you can look up anyone's name, he was convicted of displaying extremist symbols, specifically Nazi symbols. Now, unfortunately, the only information we have from this website is that he was arrested, a hearing has taken place, and a ruling has been issued, but we don't exactly know what the ruling was. Aka, we don't know what the punishment he's facing. That's because the court refuses to say that publicly. When Russian journalists reached out to the court to ask for information, they just said, "Hey, we don't discuss this in public." So you guys can make of that what you want.

But now let's shift our focus to a different kind of betrayal that Putin is facing. The international kind coming from Belarus. About a week ago, this report dropped from the Wall Street Journal. Russia was now pressuring Belarus hard to open up a new front in the Ukraine war. Specifically, the Kremlin wanted Belarus to do three things. One, allow Russia to launch drones from Belarusian territory, creating a northern threat that forces Ukraine to redeploy forces away from the eastern front. Two, serve as a staging ground for provocations against NATO countries. And three, potentially commit Belarusian troops to active combat. And Putin was saying basically, hey, I have all the leverage because Belarus financially depends on Russia. So, Lukashenko has to do what Russia wants, otherwise he's out of power.

Now, this is when Ukraine started doing its own diplomacy and they started doing it behind the scenes. Basically letting Belarus know that if they get involved in this war, it's not going to be good news for Lukashenko either way. Ukraine has drones that even Russia cannot stop. How's Belarus going to fight against that? And guess what? It actually worked because Lukashenko went on international television. He talked to an international journalist and answered some questions that I don't think the Kremlin was expecting him to answer. First, he openly said that if Ukraine starts hitting Belarus the way they've been hitting Russia, well, guess what? Belarus stands no chance. Take a listen.

>> Belarus has found itself in the media a lot these past few weeks, primarily because Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has warned that Russia is planning to launch a new offensive on Ukraine from Belarus. Has President Putin raised this prospect with you? Is he pushing to open a new front from Belarus?

>> Yes, we discussed the issue with Putin, but not in the way the mass media discuss it. We often spoke with President Putin about the fact that it is inadmissible for the war in Ukraine to spill over into Belarus. First and foremost, Belarus, we do not want to enter the war. Belarus is vulnerable from a military point of view. If Ukraine starts attacking Belarus as it attacks Russia because from this perspective of the Ukrainian armed forces, Belarus is within immediate reach and we understand that all of our logistics and production facilities could come under attack. And by the way, Ukraine has stated that it already has 500 targets in the territory of Belarus.

Now, this is not a crazy claim. Think about it. I'm pretty sure all the air defenses that Belarus had, I'm sure they've all been repositioned to Moscow to protect Putin and his cronies. That means Belarus, which already doesn't have a lot of air defenses to begin with, is probably running low, lower than usual. And on top of that, they have no experience in this drone warfare that has been created out of the Russia-Ukraine war. Ukraine has been mastering this for the last four years and they're beating Russia at that game. Belarus is going to stand no chance.

Now, of course, the interview didn't end there. Lukashenko kept talking and he kept making things worse. In this next part, he basically says that, hey, Russia never actually used Belarusian territory to attack Ukraine, which of course is not true. But on top of that, he also says that if this war does expand, Russia has no chance of actually like protecting Belarus. Take a listen.

>> Belarusians do not want war because Belarusians suffered greatly in previous wars. Many civilians were killed. And thirdly, if Russia were to attack Kyiv from the territory of Belarus, then the front line for Russia and consequently for Belarus would expand by 1,500 km along the Belarusian-Russian and the Belarusian-Ukrainian borders. We cannot protect this part of the border, especially if NATO armed forces, NATO troops, and the countries that support Ukraine were to deploy their troops on Ukrainian territory.

Now, of course, as you can guess, Zelensky responded to all the claims Lukashenko made. And here it is. Take a look.

When the full-scale war began, we were hit by missiles that killed children and adults. And Lukashenko knows this. A large number of missiles were launched from Belarus back then. He called Ukraine and apologized. Said it was out of his control. I don't believe that, but that's what he already said. Now, Russia will keep pushing him further into this war. Now, he understands that Ukraine will respond. This is not 2022. Ukraine has more than enough ability without its Western partners to hit back. And this is something Putin is learning himself. But nonetheless, let's continue with the statement. There's no need for extra words. There are retransmitters on his communication towers on his territory along the two regions bordering Ukraine. There is equipment that adjusts fire on our people. He should remove that equipment. I think a week is enough for him to do that because right now every day our civilians are being killed and children are being wounded as a result of this. If he doesn't, we will.

Now, let me explain what Zelensky means here. Over the last four years, Ukraine has built defenses. They have built systems to fight against Russian drones and a lot of those systems are, you know, situated on the eastern border, the border they have with Russia. To get around this as a counter to this strategy, what Russia has been doing now is using the Belarusian border to fly their drones deeper into Ukraine and then coming into the Ukrainian border. So what they do is they launch the drone from Russia, then the drone just flies down, hugs the Belarusian border, border, border, stays within the Belarusian territory, and then makes a sharp turn in to go attack a Ukrainian city. On top of that, there are retransmitters. Basically, some radio technology that helps Russia communicate with the drones better. So, if Ukraine is trying to jam the signal or do something like that, these retransmitters basically decrease the probability of that drone being jammed because they're closer to the drone. That way, Russia has more control over the drones.

Now, Zelensky is saying that, hey, if you really want to help out Ukraine, what you'll do is remove these technologies so Russia cannot take advantage of stuff that's inside of Belarus to hit Ukrainian civilians.

Now, Lukashenko actually responded to this request. And we know that from Russian media. They're the one making a big fuss about it. But before we get into that response, let me show you Lukashenko apologizing to Zelensky because he knows if he doesn't do that, things may not be good for him in power. Take a listen.

>> They started threatening me. I had to respond. If, if Volodymyr Oleksandrovych was offended, I apologize to him for those words. Perhaps I shouldn't have, er, considering he is at war after all. Perhaps I shouldn't have spoken so harshly about it. But on the other hand, he should understand that we often say you reap what you sow. Therefore, one must be more careful and cautious. Moreover, he understands perfectly well. I emphasize once again that one should not expect any military action from Belarus and especially from me. From the very first days of the war, I suggested how to reach an agreement and how to make peace.

Now, this wasn't an empty apology. And let me show you what I mean. Right after this interview aired and right after Zelensky made his demand about, hey, take off these retransmitters. Guess what? Russian military bloggers are confirming that Belarus has actually shut down the operations of MTS, which is a Russian telecom carrier, which has infrastructure inside of Belarus. And you can assume, or I guess make an educated guess, that Russia was using this technology, this company to control their drones better. And now Russia is going to have a harder time and Ukraine is going to have an easier time defending against drone attacks.

Now, of course, as I mentioned before, this news is coming from Russian war bloggers. And they have no incentive to lie to make Ukraine look good. They have no incentive to lie to make Belarus look bad. In fact, these war bloggers are furious because they see this as an insult towards Putin, an insult towards Russia. Basically, proof that Russia's influence is waning even in its own sphere of influence. Take a look at how they are reacting.

How are our Kremlin pensioners feeling about this? Our own ally is screwing our country by shutting down our MTS. You old Kremlin cuckold, just go retire and make way for the youth. Clearly, Belarus is standing up to Russia.

Now, this is where it's important to remember that Lukashenko more specifically depends on Russia financially to stay in power. You know, I'm sure Russia is helping him out with cheap gas, maybe even money. So, how is he going to fight back against that? Because Putin still has that leverage. Well, guess what? Lukashenko has been in power longer than I've been alive. He's been the dictator of that country since 1994. That's a very long time. Now, he's not a good person, but that doesn't mean he's a dumb person. He knows how to operate, at least politically. He knows if you lose one sugar daddy, you have to find another one. And that's exactly what he's doing. Take a look. He just flew to Beijing and spent multiple days personally meeting with Xi Jinping. At the end of those meetings, Beijing released a formal statement saying that China supports the protection of Belarusian sovereignty.

Now, I'm sure this statement is meant to deter Ukraine from launching any strikes inside of Belarus, but I think the real message is actually Lukashenko sending a text to Moscow, or a message to Moscow. The message is pretty clear. If Russia refuses to keep funding Lukashenko and his government, guess what? China is more than willing to step in. And China, even though it has some economic challenges, it's still a much, much bigger economy than Russia's. A few hundred million annually going to Belarus, well, that's probably a rounding error for the CCP. So, that's something Putin has to keep in mind.

Now, as if this wasn't bad enough, we have another Putin ally being forced to resign in Serbia. But before we cover that news, let's quickly go over our meme segment. Now, you guys know the rule. If you like the meme, hit the subscribe button down below. And if you're already subscribed, just hit the like button down below. It truly does help us out in the algorithm. Now, today's memes are a little bit more adultish. Nothing wrong, just the wording. First one we have, which is not really a meme. These are words coming from a Russian war blogger who's breaking down the situation in Moscow and Crimea, saying, "Guys, here's the situation. We're getting screwed over and over again and we're just swallowing it." Pretty funny. This is not even a meme. I'm pretty sure he was, he meant that when he said it.

Next one is a clip of Moscow burning, Russian refineries just going up in flame, and then someone sharing just a word from the Russian dictionary. Did you guys know Russia actually has a single word for the phrase "and find out"? I'm sure I'm going to butcher this, but that word is "dovio". I don't know if I said that right, but hopefully you guys can see it on your screen. Now, this reminds me of the German word that I can pronounce, "Schadenfreude", which basically means that someone is taking pleasure in someone else's misfortune. And I feel like a lot of people watching this channel are taking pleasure in Putin's misfortune. Myself included, by the way. But nonetheless, I think that's an important word to learn.

Let's switch our focus back to serious topics. Now, before we talk about the Serbian president being forced to resign, let's talk about the biggest Putin ally, China and Xi Jinping. And guess what? The CCP can see which way this war is going. And now China is strongly urging Putin to return to negotiations and end the war. Now, of course, this is where we have to be clear. China would rather this war continue than stop because China is benefiting heavily from it. China is selling drones to both sides, Ukraine and Russians. On top of that, China is getting that sweet, sweet discount on Russian oil. And of course, as we talked about at the start of the video, a lot of traditional Russian allies are now looking towards China to be their big brother. So, China is benefiting on pretty much every front. So, they would rather this war continue than stop. But, of course, they cannot afford for Russia to lose this war because that weakens their bloc. So, now that they're seeing that Russia is struggling a bit, they're putting pressure on Putin to negotiate some kind of truce where he's still in power.

Now let's talk about the Serbian president, Aleksandar Vučić. He just announced that he's resigning and special elections will be held in the coming weeks. Now, to understand why this matters to Putin, we need to understand two things. First, why Vučić is leaving and second, what kind of relationship he had with Russia. Let's start with the first one. Now, of course, Vučić is not being forced out because of the war in Ukraine. Serbia has been dealing with anti-government protests since November of 2025. The protests started over a corruption scandal involving a brand new train station that just collapsed. The roof of the station collapsed months after it was built, killing multiple people. And the investigation that revealed that government contracts had been awarded based on bribes and, you know, kickbacks. Well, the government tried covering up the investigation initially, which just fed into the protests. Now, all this time, Vučić was fighting back against it. He was like, "Hey, I wasn't the one who was being implicated. I'm not going to resign," while the protesters were demanding his resignation. Well, now he finally announced that he will be resigning, a new president will come in.

Now, this is where it's important to look at his relationship with Putin. Now, Vučić wasn't as pro-Russia as some like Viktor Orbán in Hungary, who was very famously openly defending Putin in EU summits, but he was still like the second most important Russia-friendly leader in Europe. Serbia, of course, historically has religious and cultural ties with Russia and on top of that, Vučić leveraged those ties carefully to get votes inside the country and of course get support and get financial backing outside of the country. So definitely good news to Ukraine that he is going away, but to be fair, we don't exactly know who will replace him. Like I said, the war wasn't a big deal in him stepping down or his support for Putin wasn't a big deal. That means it's possible. Well, again, I don't know Serbian domestic politics, so if you guys know, correct me in the comments. But it's possible that someone just like him could take his place, at least in terms of foreign policy, foreign policy relating to Russia. Someone who follows Serbian politics a lot closer than me can confirm in the comments down below.

But nonetheless, let's shift our focus to the third front that Putin is dealing with, and that's really Western supporters who loved Putin and Russia so much that they moved to Russia because they thought Russia was better than Western countries. And now they're finding out that that's not exactly the truth. Let me show you this report. It's from the BBC and they just published. Now, the report covers two people. One guy here from Texas and one guy from Britain, if I'm correct, who moved to Russia and then are finding out that they were being lied to online.

The first man is named Leo Hair. He moved from Texas to Russia. And unfortunately, that's a very common trend. I don't want to say common. This is the second guy that we have covered on this channel where he's leaving his life behind in Texas and going to Russia. I don't know if Russia just has a better reach in Texas compared to other states, but it seems like a lot of Texans. And when I say a lot, I feel like more than any other states. It's not like hundreds of people, it's still like dozens of people, but a decent amount of people from Texas are moving to Russia. Now, Leo Hair is a devout Christian and he moved with his wife and three children looking for a country where, in his words, traditional Christian values still shaped daily life. And after hearing about how Russia was defending Western values, he picked Russia. Now, unfortunately, things were off to a bad start as soon as he got there. He was scammed out of $60,000. In fact, more than $60,000 by someone who he had trusted in his new community. This was a massive deal for him because this left him homeless and from there, situations just deteriorated. His older children did not like the Russian lifestyle and they have since moved back to the United States. His wife is no longer living with him. He's now living alone, stuck in a country where he's becoming disillusioned.

Now, I do want to point out Leo gave this interview to the BBC, so there are direct quotes from him, but he does say that he has no issues with ordinary Russians. In fact, he says they are very lovely people, very friendly people. But what he does have a problem with is the system. First, he points out that the Russian economy seems to be struggling. And second thing he has a problem with is the information restriction that he has to deal with inside of Russia. Now, this is his direct quote that I'm reading. Okay. So, he says, "In Russia, you don't have these human rights values that we have here in the United States." He also says that he misses the freedoms that have shaped the American personality.

Then we have the second guy who moved from the UK to Russia hoping to find a traditional relationship and he says Russia isn't some utopia that people are making it out to be on social media. He specifically points out that there is a prevalence of single-parent households and divorce rates in Russia are nothing what the Western influencer had told him before he moved. Then he openly criticizes American and British influencers who continue to promote a sanitized image of Russia to their audiences, saying that there are people like him who are moving because of the propaganda and then they're learning that it was all just propaganda.

Now, this is where it is important to point out that we criticize Russia a lot on this channel, but one thing they are very, very good at is propaganda. They might be better than the United States, China, they might be better than everyone else combined. And that's one of the reasons we are doing what we do here on this channel. Fight back against the Russian propaganda and fight back against the lies they are spreading. And even better than me, I have former Navy SEAL Chuck Pfarrer who knows a lot more about military stuff than I do. And he breaks down exactly how the Russian story that they tell about their military doesn't exactly match up with how they are behaving on the front lines.

Now, here's another clip from our members-exclusive segment where Chuck Pfarrer breaks down footage from the battlefield. We call it Battlefield Breakdown. Take a look.

>> Yeah. So, here we've got a, I believe this is film of a single Leopard tank taking on two columns of Russian armored vehicles. Now, this guy's going to do something very smart at the top of the clip here. He is has a choice of the first three targets here. He is going to wait till one target blocks the only egress route and then he takes it out. So right there he has blocked the only other road towards him. So he has channelized. Every other vehicle now has to come right at him. So there was a miss right there. Okay. He didn't miss with the second one. Uh, so now this guy is turning and he is turning his armor sideways. His best armor protection is head-on. Now he's turned a vulnerable side toward the adversary and bang, he's got him. So look, look what I said about these guys being channelized. There's no way out now. There's no place for them to turn around. So again, we've talked about this before. This is crossing the T on the letter T. These guys are the vertical bar. Uh, the horizontal bar is occupied by the by the Leopard. So all he has to do, he doesn't even have to move his gun very far. Just change the elevation. He's going to take out the first tank. He took out the third tank. Third, fourth, and fifth. And as these guys try to run away, he's going to shoot them all in the ass.

>> Okay, there we've got the propellant cooking off. See those blowtorches coming out of the hatches?

>> Yeah.

>> That's the propellant burning inside the turret. Okay, there's our, there's our Leopard. Okay, he's advancing and shooting and scooting. See, he is changing his location constantly. So, now he's engaging these guys on a parallel road. Yeah, this, this is, you know, this is some excellent use of of that tank. And again, you know, you don't want to fight one tank against an oncoming enemy column, right? This takes, this takes skill, training, and some serious balls, right? And there is no one else backing him up. He is, look, this is epic. This is, this is terrific handling of that weapon. Great coordination of his crew, great coordination with drones.

Now, if you're interested in content like this and other series that we're doing for members only, you can become a member right now by clicking the join button down below or just by clicking the link in the description. It's the first link.