Welcome to week four, stats versus film. The show that we watch every single game from the previous weekend, look at the tape, the individuals, and how they played. And maybe more importantly, compare it with the stats, the metrics, the underlying spreadsheets in the hopes of finding the answers for you ahead of week four and to win your fantasy matchups.

Uh, Hayden, a weird topsy-turvy week in the NFL. Not just the outcome of many games, but also the outcome of many depth charts as we head into week four with, I think, a lot of reset points both at quarterback, running back, and wide receiver across many teams.

Yeah, we got quarterback benchings, we have tons of injuries, and next after this, next week, it's by week. So that, so some of these fringe guys, like typically we don't spend that much time on the tight end twos and the wide receiver fours on teams, but I think it's all going to start to matter.

You can tell people to be patient after two weeks. It's more difficult to do that after three weeks. So, you know, Drake London is wide receiver 51 at this point. We'll do a deep dive on him. Brian Thomas Jr., wide receiver 50. Lad Makoni, wide receiver 49. Ashen Genty, running back 33. Uh, I, they got some extra numbers on each one of those players. So, if you have all four on your roster or just one, I think you'll want to pay attention to the rest of.

They're not watching. They've been eliminated.

Okay. As always, we kick things off with some teams that are at the top of the news agenda, and that has to start here with the New York Giants. They have benched Russell Wilson. They are going with the rookie quarterback in Jackson Dart. Hayden, we all saw Jackson Dart play a lot during preseason action. Let's remind the people what those takeaways were and how that can spin forward for the Giants moving forward.

This is super exciting for fantasy purposes for two main reasons. Number one, Jackson Dart is going to be used in the scrambling department and in the zone read department. And Russell Wilson, part of the reason why he was benched and why the, the red zone stuff was so bad, is because he just can't move like he did before. And that's really limiting. That's not the case with Jackson Dart, who's actually an above-average athlete among NFL starters and he actually was really lighting it up against SEC competition. Uh, even like shooting some guys, truck kicking some guys. So that's going to be a big plus. The second big thing is at Old Miss with Lane Keifin, they use a bunch of tempo and were really aggressive with the, the decision-making in terms of throwing the ball downfield. So, you're going to have some RPO stuff, but you're going to push the ball downfield. Well, Jackson Dart is a very aggressive player and he's used to the pace. And that was like the big takeaway in the preseason is Russell Wilson offense slow, throw the ball downfield, hit your check down. That's kind of it. In the preseason, when Jackson Dart was in there, you saw some zone read stuff, but also a lot more tempo. Get the ball downfield, uh, checking some calls, and all that stuff is great for fantasy purposes. So, this is without question a win for Jackson Dart, for Malik Neighbors, Cam Scatabo, and then maybe even the Juell Robinson, Theo Johnson types could become a little bit more, uh, intriguing. So, uh, really fun for Giants fans, but I also think for fantasy purposes, like this definitely does matter.

There was no perfect time to put in a rookie quarterback here for the Giants because, as I brought up the entire preseason, this schedule is brutal. They just finished off this Chiefs game where they scored nine points. Then it's the Chargers, then the Saints, then the Eagles, Broncos, Eagles, 49ers, Bears, Packers, and Lions over the next handful of games. You hope that Andrew Thomas, who was capped at about 25 snaps in his return from injury, plays a full game moving forward. But what definitely stuck out to me in the preseason because oftentimes either teams are super vanilla or they do very similar things as to what the starting quarterback, uh, does out there on the field in terms of running an offense. Brian Dable had immediately a different style, as you just outlined. Uh, it hit different areas of the field. It looked different at the line of scrimmage with different personnel groupings and with different formations. You could tell it gave him and maybe even Mike Kfka a bit more energy to an excitement to call that Salivan offense versus one that was a Russell Wilson touchdown to checkdown style. Um, again, I think they're going to be maybe more competitive and look a bit better just on a drive-to-drive and more exciting on a drive-to-drive standpoint. I don't know what this does from a win-loss column though for the New York Giants, just because of the buzzsaw that the schedule has and is coming up. And that does give me some fear that, hey, Brian Dball has pulled this lever. He has used this card of a rookie quarterback already heading into week four. Does this even give him the rest of the season? If this team is, I don't know, one and nine halfway through the year?

I think if you look at ownership, they have been extremely patient throughout their entire history. Like, we can go back like decades of this. So, I think that Daveball is going to get the entire season with Jackson Dart, and he hand-selected Jackson Dart. Like, there were reports from like Jordan Rond on like weeks before the draft that like Jackson Dart was their guy. So, I think they're going to have a plan here and let this thing, uh, roll out. Of course, we are grading this on the rookie scale only. Rookie quarterbacks do not win football games. Like, that is just like the reality of the situation. And oftentimes they have like the top or bottom five offense in in the league. So if they can get even average offense, I think that would be a major win here. Obviously Andrew Thomas coming back, I do think gave them a lot more comfort to go to Jackson Dart in this one, too. Then I think there's just like some effort things, like looking at like Malik Neighbors and obviously the frustrations and stuff. I think people were just like kind of sick and tired of how limited the offense is where you can only only move when the ball is completed down the field and then everything else is super lackluster. So obviously not a sustainable, uh, premise there, but I think that Day Ball is going to be safe for the season unless this thing like completely implodes. But I think Jackson Dart's like too good for like a complete implosion here.

I think you could make an argument that they have been very patient with Brian Dable so far during his NFL tenure, and they got to the playoffs in that first season where he kind of pulled all the strings with that lack of talented passing game along with Daniel Jones at quarterback, but really ever since then, it's just been downhill. Uh, the Giants so far this year are 31st when it comes to red zone touchdown success rate. As Albert Beer put it, Russell Wilson on third downs this year was 15 of 31, 193 yards, one interception, just nine first downs. In the red zone, he was four of 18 for 16 yards, just outside of it. Uh, he threw that interception that we saw against the Chiefs. I guess the biggest thing here is both Cam Scataboo and Malik Neighbors because just in totality, Malik Neighbors is the wide receiver nine on the season, but you have 9.6 points in week one, 33.2 in week two, then 2.3 in week three because it's not the same touchdown to checkdown offense. Does that potentially limit 33-point games, but at the same time, does it give you more 15-point floors? Well, Jackson Dart's super aggressive passer, so like I think you're going to get some downfield opportunities, at least compared to what he was dealing with last year when none of the quarterbacks wanted to throw the ball downfield. I think that Jackson Dart has above-average accuracy over the middle, uh, as well. Um, so, yeah, it's not going to be perfect. He's going to take some bad sacks. He's going to throw the ball into double coverage and have some interceptions, but for fantasy purposes, that's not going to be his problem. He's a wide receiver three in usage, and I think like right now, I would have Puka ranked ahead of him and stuff, but then I think Malik Neighbors is like right there for rest of the season. So, I think this is going to be a win for him. A lot of the RPO stuff that you get attached with the Lane Keif and stuff is going to go to Malik Neighbors. I think there's going to be a little bit more juice. And even if it's not very efficient, I just think the increase in play volume is going to be great for Malik Neighbors. And I'll even throw out Wel Robinson. Like the RPO stuff, more underneath intermediate stuff, I do think is going to help out Wel Robinson, who obviously like dominated against busted coverages, but he is the wide receiver 23 in usage too. So, I think in like full PPR stuff, I'm like not ruling out Wel Robinson kind of holding line as well.

I'm definitely going to be intrigued by the rushing higher and lowers in the underdog pick and lobby during Jackson Dart's early stuff. Okay, I have to ask, what does this mean for your guy Russell Wilson moving forward?

Well, the the Giants are eating like it's like eight or 10 million here. It's already paid out. There's like $2 million left remaining on his salary. There's no reason he should be the quarterback too. Really, he should be on another team. And it's a very tradable contract. And Russell Wilson, they're 28th in success rate. He's 21st in EP per play. That's kind of where he's been. He's better than some starters. He's not a long-term solution. If there's another quarterback injury, if Jake Browning doesn't play well, I could see Russell Wilson getting traded for a sixth, seventh round pick completely free to try to save a season. Uh, but this is just how he's played for the last couple years. Um, that's an upgrade over some situations. It's not for everybody. It's just so cheap of a contract that if you're completely desperate, uh, if you're trying to save a season, like the Dolphins or the Bengals, or if another quarterback goes down, I can see a trade. I just don't see the reason why you would have him as the backup. Like Jamus is on a two-year contract. Uh, Russell Wilson's on a one-year contract. We, we know where where this thing's going.

I could possibly see Russell Wilson traded. I, I do think it's a desperate move for another team. Like maybe the Bengals are that desperate to try to lock down the seven seed in the AFC if they're even close to the fringes there. I'll just also say that like the Russell Wilson stuff is every team had an opportunity to do this. You know, he signed the lowest starting contract by far across the league. He's won two of his last 11 games here. I mean, even the team that just saw him throw for 400 yards knew that was like a totally fugazi performance. Um, so, yeah, I mean, he, he could go to another team. I just think 31 other offensive coordinators and play callers and head coaches are going to have to totally change their offense in order to incorporate someone like Russell Wilson. And that's just such a, I think, difficult thing to do at this moment because he's so limited as a player and limits where you can attack offensively that I don't think there's like a line of even maybe one or two teams that will want to sign up for this. I think it's a different conversation in the offseason when you have your healthy quarterback and then all of a sudden you take your healthy quarterback away and then all of a sudden you're like, is Russell Wilson better than Jake Brown? He probably is. It's not perfect, but it's probably a situation like that. So, I would only say it if he's, if because the contract is like so, so, so minuscule at this point, and because Jameus Winston is there for multi-year and he's going to be the backup for the next couple years, and there's really like no way that they could just keep Russell Wilson in there. It makes no sense. Um, but I did want to talk about Cam Scotell real quick.

Oh, of course. Uh, definitely after, uh, Tyrone Tracy left, uh, at the end of the first quarter, uh, you got a little bit of Devin Singleary, but it was largely Cam Scatter. And that dude, I thought looked pretty impressive. Like, obviously there were some highlight trucks. Uh, but he catches the ball very cleanly, as he did at Arizona State, but I thought his vision and his patience was actually something that kind of stood out to me. And he actually beat a couple defenders around the edge as well. So I thought it was like a very, like, very encouraging performance just by himself. And he's going to be the biggest beneficiary, I think, in the offense, uh, over the next couple months here. So, we're not going to see Tyron Tracy's probably for the next month, but I think Cam Scout is just a more talented all-around player. And even last week, 14.5 expected half PPR points. Uh, I'm going to be ranking him as an RB2, I think, this week.

You and I were huge fans of Cam Scataboo during the draft process. It was weird to talk about him because when you watched him, it was so much fun. Even the underlying metrics were fantastic, but then everything you heard from the NFL, either from Daniel Jeremiah or Dane Bugler, was that he just had no juice and that his running style wouldn't last in the NFL. Maybe the second part is true based on what we've seen through the first three weeks NFL.

Million percent.

But focusing so much in on just the long speed was always so weird to me about someone like Cam Scataboo because he's a tackle breaker. He's patient between the tackles. And like, we have seen guys like James Connor, who ran a 4.65 at 233 pounds, or Andre Stevenson, a 4.64 at 231. Dave Montgomery, who we just saw reel off a 72-yard run at 4.63 at 222 lbs. Like Cam Scott running a 4.65 at 220. Yeah, that seemed to be the only thing that the NFL, uh, was attaching themselves to with this type of a runner, whereas everything else was just so much fun to watch. Um, and he actually has, I think, juice in like before the 10-yard line, you know, like.

He has a nice rate of 10-plus yard runs. He just doesn't have a nice rate of 30-plus yard runs. So, this is a really fun player who, even in pass protection, can be quite hit or miss because he's Goldberg out there and trying to spear everyone, but he's a tempo setter. He's an identity setter. And like he and already Jackson Dart, especially for the next two to four weeks as Tyrone Tracy is out, and you know you can totally claim the backfield in that time. Uh, it's already resetting and turning the page for what this backfield looks like.

I would say he's a buy high. Like I think that this is sustainable. He's going to be the bell cow. And, uh, when Dball's on the mic, he has like the same kind of, you know, little smirk on his face when Cam Scout gets mentioned as he's always had with Jackson Dart. So Abdul Carter looks good. Uh, so there might try to like reset this entire team with three of their draft picks coming through here. They're desperate for all three of these guys to to be hits, though.

Okay, let's talk about their opponent, that was the Kansas City Chiefs, who, Hayden, their passing offense would look incredibly boring without Taekwon Thornton. It's very, very true. They can't they can't find anybody else to step up. It's been really bad for Hollywood Brown. Uh, Travis Kelce keeps dropping. Uh, he's under 8.8 expected half PPR points, uh, in in all three games, uh, to date. They have not found any running back that they could trust. Isaiah PCO with one of the worst reps of the season. But I was just also noticed the Chiefs are only at a 52% neutral pass rate, uh, so far. Are typically they're in like the 60s, top five, and right now they're closer to league average. That just shows you how little faith they have in the pass catchers. So we'll see if Xavier Worthy comes back this next week. But right now, like I'll continue to start, uh, Patrick Mahomes because he's rushing so much. Uh, he is taking more downfield shots. I think that was the other thing in my notes. It's like very obvious that they're trying to throw the ball like almost like intentionally where it's like, we're just going to take two 40-yard passes each game and keep it moving here. Uh, but at least they have Taekwon Thornton out there. So, I, I actually don't mind talking about Thoron as a pickup right now. Um, and I do think that he should be playing over Hollywood Brown, uh, once they get their top two wide receivers. He's like, to me, just a more talented football player at this point.

Yeah, on Twitter, I posted all 18 of Taekwon Thurton's targets this season. He is a 25.2 AOT. Uh, the next closest player in the NFL with 15-plus targets is Malik Neighbors with 19.6 AOT. So, it's already almost like six yards beyond that. You can even argue that it's already boring with him, but it'd be even worse without. He's the only one, the only one with, uh, downfield juice. Hopefully that lasts. Hopefully Xavier Worthy adds on something to that. But again, I just keep coming back to once Rashid Rice comes back into the fold, he will be the focal point of this offense, of the passing attack. And that's not until week seven, right? And so every single week, you see more and more people in your fantasy league want to give up, want to panic on players getting injured, especially on top of it. Now we're about to have by-weeks on top of it. So if ever you can do like a two-for-one of just meddling talents just to fill someone else's starting lineups and go and get Richishi Rice if you drafted a loaded team, to me, I would still go and do it.

Yeah, they, they desperately need him. I think that Mahomes is feeling like a little bit of pressure right now and he's like not making the cleanest decisions. And I think like there's reasons for that. His offensive line has been bad. Like even like their superstars on the offensive line, they got two of them. They haven't been playing like all-pro level players and the tackles have both been getting beat. Their left guard is a liability playing out of position right now. So, yeah, they need to need someone to go in there and settle it underneath. And right now that would be Rasheed Rice if he was out there. But like Guju, Hollywood, Kelsey, they're not themselves. And then looking at the running back group right now, Isaiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt both outside the top 40 in expected points. Like that is extremely hard to do. Uh, that just shows you how little that they're getting out of this position. So for this next week, Travis Kelce, low-end tight end one, but just barely. I'll rank Taekwon Thornton ahead of Maris Brown. And you can't play either of them if Xavier Worthy is out there. So, yeah, it's been as bad as it looked. So at the top, I even mentioned players who have underperformed. I didn't even mention Isaiah Pacheco in there, who is running back 49 right now, because I don't see a light at the end of the tunnel.

Yeah, he, he had to play well to get his job back and he has not played well.

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Okay, let's go to Monday Night Football. What a game it was. We'll kick things off with the Baltimore Ravens, um, posting 33 or 30 points again and still losing thanks to another Derrick Henry fumble in both of their losses this year. The most fascinating thing to me is how unpredictable fantasy football is because we head into this game with Zay Flowers top two or three in target share across the league and he gets three targets here for two catches for 13 yards and then Mark Andrews, who last season as Lamar Jackson told the broadcast booth started very slowly and when we start targeting everyone else, then we start targeting Mark Andrews, then pops up with, uh, six targets, six receptions, 91 yards and two scores. So, uh, can we transfer any of this moving forward?

Yeah, I mean, this game is just, it's a kick in the nuts. So, Z Flowers, 3.0 expected fantasy points when they were trailing. I don't even know how that's possible. Uh, and then, like you said, 19.6 expected fantasy points for Mark Andrews. Clearly a season high. That might have been more in that one game than his two, uh, previous games combined. So, yeah, this is a, it's a crazy game to predict. Isaiah likely is going to be coming back, I think, this next week. And that's obviously going to hurt Mark Andrews. The Ravens aren't going to be trailing as much as they typically are. It was odd to see Lamar Jackson looked a little bit, uh, skittish in the pocket and I think he was kind of holding on to the ball, which you don't typically see from Lamar Jackson at this stage in his career. So that was kind of, uh, like a big credit to I think this Lions coaching staff, like once again, just finding new leadership up there and getting the most out of it. And Aiden Hudchinson obviously was a problem, uh, up front. So, yeah, it was just like a really weird game. And it's just crazy how many times they fumbled the ball in the fourth quarter and then Harbaugh, who was like so ahead of the curve five, 10 years ago with the analytic stuff, now he's like behind the curve and he doesn't call plays and stuff. So, like, it's kind of weird that they have all these like crazy fourth quarter losses and then he doesn't call plays and now, like the one thing that he was supposed to be doing is like be aggressive, agree with the models, and now he's not doing that either. So, it's kind of frustrating what's what's been going on for for the Ravens.

And by that, you're referring to your post where you pointed out that they punted on what, a fourth and six or a fourth and nine? Meanwhile, obviously, the Lions went for it a number of times on fourth down and it ultimately won them the game. I mean, the Lions went three for three on fourth downs. The Ravens were 0 for one. And Hayden, I think it almost extends beyond that. Like, we believe this Baltimore Ravens team is loaded. It's very good. Todd Monkin has done a fantastic job, even taking Lamar Jackson to the next level, but right now the Ravens are 17th when it comes to red zone touchdown success rate at just 54%. And just anecdotally, when you're watching this team, they struggle in short yardage situations, which is kind of weird near the red zone. I'm saying kind of weird when it's Derrick Henry running and like as a goal-line runner, sometimes he gets stuffed. And then the two-point plays, it feels like for the Ravens for the last two seasons has just been like a kryptonite for them.

Yep. It seems like they overthink it, you know, like just get in there, just run it right with Derrick Henry. Um, yeah, right now the Baltimore Ravens are dead last in expected points to the running backs. Like obviously Dererick Henry, like, is just ripping off big plays and like that's skewing the numbers, but also he's fumbling the ball in fourth quarters and like those are meaningful drives as well. So I think just like probably just chalking this up to noise. I think the, the real reason why they lost this game, no, they're like superstar defensive tackle and Kyle Vanoi both missed this game and they did not stop the run whatsoever. And I'll also just say like Marlon Humphrey got beat a couple times here. Like they have some like stars in in this in the back seven, not necessarily playing up to that standard. So I thought the Ravens were going to be a top three defense this year. Like what right now they got to be bottom five in EPA allowed right now. So, uh, that's been like the real culprit here. But I do think that this was one of Lamar's worst games in in a very long time. Just like not feeling confident on where to throw the ball.

And I know our Stewart had a preseason injury. So Malachi Starks had to immediately become a starter, and he's the one that missed the tackle on the long Dave Montgomery run as well, after being, you know, an early round draft pick. Okay, let's talk about the Detroit Lions. We brought this up as a possibility multiple times after week one and then even more so after week two, but it was clearly the Green Bay Packers tax for their defense in week one when that team total for the Lions was 22. Ever since then, it's been closer to 26 or 27 points. And that's why with Johnny Morton, now we're getting an offense that looks so similar to the one that we got last year with Ben Johnson, even with some really cool trick plays on top of it with the speed option. I loved how Troy Yman pointed out how he handed the football off to Aman Rah St. Brown in a perfect position to pitch it on top of that, too. And speaking of Aman Rah, Hayden, he has eight red zone targets right now with four red zone touchdowns of that.

He's really good. One of the best USC Trojans there there is in the league right now. Um, yeah, he's been dominant and right now that's equated to wide receiver two on wide receiver five usage. His actually his like usage is up versus this last year. And we are exactly where we were this last season where now the Lions are number one in running back uses, uh, usage collectively and both guys are now in the top 25 in usage, including Jir Gibbs as third, uh, among running back and expected fantasy points. So everything's going. We've quickly learned that the interior offensive line and and Tate Rablage especially has kind of solved some of those issues. And then Morton has, I think the last two weeks been very good. We're starting to see some of the trick plays and the reality is, I think Dan Campbell just deserves a lot of credit. And like everybody else, aside from the couple interior offensive linemen, is all back. You know, they had both their running backs back. Jared Goff's been in this offense forever. Ammon Ross St. Brown's the easiest guy to get the ball to. Sam Leaport has been in the offense for a couple years. J offense for a couple years. So like it would have been like a really, really, really bad result if the offensive coordinator could not figure this thing out when he could just download the same playbook with like what, eight out of the 11 starters returning here. So, um, you got to give a lot of credit to Dan Campbell, who I think gets maybe a little bit less credit on offense, uh, than he probably deserves because he's, you know, an offensive guy.

The other part of that is the Dan Campbell factor where before Ben Johnson took over calling plays, Dan Campbell was calling plays immediately for this team. And then obviously all the credit then goes to Ben Johnson after about half the year or a full season after, I can't remember the exact logistics, but when Dan Campbell took over this team, and obviously it's not this version of it, they were on the ascension at that point, but he was a play caller, you know, so it's not like he's just fire him up, personality.

Amp it up, grit, everything. Uh, he probably knows a thing or two about offense, too.

Yeah. He only played with Shawn Payeyton for like a decade, you know, and he played tight end, like aside from quarterback, Uh, tight end coach with the Miami Dolphins, all this type of stuff, you know, with the Saints, everything.

He's the man. Um, one like slight little wrinkle is the Lions are 37% neutral pass rate, which only the Jets are lower. So, it's a, it wasn't like quite that low in previous seasons. So, I think like at the margin, that's going to hurt a Leaporta and a JMO just a little bit. Um, but largely this is going to be a pretty, pretty dynamic offense. It would be a surprise if they weren't in a top five offense, uh, moving forward. That was a road game like in Baltimore. Like that was like no easy place to go, uh, dominate them. Um, but yeah, it was like cool even see like David Montgomery up there. I think your team total point was like the strong thing like as the season, or as the week progressed, the team total kept going up and up and up, and that's why we have, uh, our live show on Sunday where we can kind of course correct some of our initial rankings.

One thing on those live shows, sometimes we do them during the summer as well, and we get these like super random questions and I get them on Twitter. On top of that, I know some people, and it's like 0.5% of you, play with like explosive play leagues on, you get extra points for 20, 30, 40, and you know, one time I was asked, well, should this mean I only, you know, draft running backs with the fastest 40s and everything of that sort. Um, I always spit back, actually, previous to this, like David Montgomery's numbers of 20, 30, 40, and heck, even had 80 and 75-yard runs in his history prior to the 72-yard that he had on Monday night because even more so than being fast, how you really spring runs is great blocking up front. And so then the running back only has to beat really one person in the box. And if he does that, then he's off to the races. So it's not necessarily the fastest. I would actually look at the best offensive lines if you do play in those leagues.

Yeah. And then also like good vision, cutback vision. Obviously David Montgomery is really good at that. Um, just two little quick notes just to wrap my points. Leaporta in the two, uh, wins he's only averaging 5.6 expected fantasy points. He was getting peppered in that week one game in chase mode, but in the last couple games, that's a really low number. And then Jameson Williams under 7.5 expected points in all three games. That said, really fast player. He's nearly housed a couple of them. Uh, so you can't like completely write them off, but the usage is lower this year for those two guys than it was previously.

Let's talk the Atlanta Falcons, who fired their wide receiver coach and promoted TJ Yates, I guess that's a promotion, into also being the wide receiver coach while also being the passing game coordinator. Again, Drake London is wide receiver 51 at this point. Uh, I tried to dig into it for all of you as to why this round two player, uh, is not living up to expectations. And Hayden, I, I think I've solved it. Okay. This season, he only has four catches for 30 yards on just five targets out of the slot through three games. In 2024, you and I talked about it all summer long, all last season during the final parts of Stats versus Film, that that slot usage was the key to unlocking his production. Not that it was the vast majority, but anytime he lined up in the slot, like 66% of the time, he, he was getting the football. Again, in 2024, he had 73 slot targets, 47 receptions, 563 yards, and four touchdowns. But again, just five slot targets this year on 27 total targets. That's 18%. Last season, that number was at 46% of his total targets came out of the slot. And then on top of that, you all might be asking, well, now will T.J. Yates just put Drake London in the slot more often? Hopefully. But the other part of this is that the Falcons are now using three wide receiver sets far less often than they did last year. They were by far and away number one in the league in 2024 at 86%. This year that's just at 57%. So a drop of 30%. This team is trotting out three wide receivers, which would then allow Drake London to play more in the slot. So he's just not getting the gimmies in this offense anymore.

Yeah, right now he's the wide receiver 18 in usage. So he's a major positive regression candidate. Things will get better. 25% target share is strong. It's not elite. It's not like round one numbers from him. So like those two numbers are down. Uh, the three wide receiver set numbers are down because they're running the ball more. So right now they're 24th in neutral pass rate. So there's like, it's a different styled offense, a little bit right now. And then.

John Robinson offense.

Yeah. It's, and you can't hate on that too much. Uh, but the other big thing I wanted to point out was Michael Pennix and the aggressiveness. This chart, I'll show a bunch of them, uh, is just the density on like where they're throwing the ball. So there's a, you can see in 2024 that red area down the field a lot more times than the blue area, which is this year where he's being throwing the ball three, four, five yards down the field. A lot of those are like little Bijon stuff, some Kyle Pitts checkdowns. Uh, so you're seeing some of the explosive plays not come to fruition. And that's before we've we've noted all these things before addressing the Michael Penn problem, which is just he.

Was bad, wasn't it? When you went back and rewatched it. How many guys have you seen throw the ball where their feet are parallel with the line of scrimmage from this motion? It, it, it's bonkers. Like nobody plays the ball.

He throws, he throws how Harold Fannon runs, like Doug put it.

He does. He does. And that's not a compliment. You don't want to be compared to Harold Fannon when you're a quarterback. And it's been like largely the same issues as it was in college where like especially when he's throwing like left, he would kind of just like leave his feet out and then the ball would sail up and and and now it's like everywhere. Um, so that's been a problem. Also, like Darnell Mooney is dropping some passes. Like, so there's some first downs that were like left on the field as well. But I think like the hard part about this is you have to solve the Michael Penn like on-field problem with all the other things that we've kind of addressed here. So I think he's probably going to end up being like a small loss player. Um, but hopefully like his shoulder gets better, he plays better. Um, but that right tackle spot maybe is like a, a big part of the reason why they they don't feel as confident passing the ball and passing the ball downfield too.

Yeah. Whenever on Sunday, we have these individual games and we know the other person didn't get to watch them, you're obviously forcing your opinion on the audience and your perspective and that stuff. And so like when I buried Michael Penn here, I was hoping it looked just as bad on tape and then when you rewatched it, you thought the same thing. It did. And it was whenever he started second-guessing himself, I'm not a quarterback mechanics guru by any sort.

But again, when he starts second-guessing himself and and pumping and all those type of things, it gets even worse. Like his body becomes even more open, his shoulders become even more parallel, and then he's sailing these passes or skidding them in the dirt. And then there was the other things that like again, when he panics, that's when he hits the checkdown without seeing who's covering PJ Robinson. That's a pick six. And again, a loss of four yards to his check and release because on the paper it looks like no one's going to be there and that's his outlet if he gets to his third read. Then again, the guy's tackled for four yards on a second and 10. So I don't know. This thing is gonna slow down, I think, for Michael Pennix, hopefully. Um, again, it was tough to extrapolate the two and a half, three games that he had last season into an entire offseason when you had way more time to discuss those, especially with someone who had a crazy highlight reel plays, but also incredible low lights when you looked at the arachness. Just to pull this all back to Drake London. To me, I am hoping based on that usage and even with all the caveats that we just said of, hey, they're not running 11 personnel often and they're not getting in the slot. They're already firing wide receiver coaches, you would like to think that this is the worst three-game stretch that he's going to have all season long. So, this still is a boom. I just don't think he's going to be a second-round value when we look back on it from the end of the year. Even if you remove these three weeks, they open to start the season.

I'd probably take him like wide receiver 12, wide receiver 15 if I was drafting today. The hard part is other second-round picks include like Jonathan Taylor, you know, in the second round. So, uh, I think that's always the hard part with the wide receiver discussion. There's always going to be some running backs in that round that just like completely dominate, uh, Drake London anyway. So, yeah, I think the, without question, a buy low. Things are going to get better. The usage is the indicator that he is like a positive, uh, buy low candidate. But I do think your point is not at the draft capital. Like the offense has got to go back to where it was in back in late 2024. And I'm not sure if with what they're seeing, they're going to be like, "Yeah, let's pass the ball more." Like this, it's just not working.

And Bejon's sick, man. Like he is good at the game in terms of his cuts making people miss. Uh, that would just more lead a play caller to want to trust him more often than, uh, hand it over to the quarterback to unleash the football, you know, 40 times a game.

Let's talk about another second-round wide receiver in the Jacksonville Jaguars. Right now, Brian Thomas Jr. is wide receiver 51 in points. We discuss it every single year that drops while they are very evident and get run when you're watching, you know, NFL shows or on social media, the low lights definitely stick out, but those are not necessarily sticky year over year. With that said, when watching Brian Thomas Jr. through three games, his hands are absolutely a problem and they were once again a problem in week three. I mean, he had two more drops. He had another about 23-yard catch down the sideline that Trevor asked him to elevate, which he did. He got two hands on it, but then he just didn't come down with the catch. Again, these are opportunities that he was making last year and then turning them into even bigger gains. And then now they're just not even getting started.

Yeah, he's a wide receiver 52 and wide receiver eight usage. I still think that he's a buy low, but the, the zone, I think that the zone discomfort is leading to a lot of the drops and they're just like still not on the same page. Uh, he did have the fastest ball carrier of the week and I think of any wide receiver this on that crossing route where he did create separation against man coverage at Derek Stingley, uh, punch out where I think I would count that as a drop for Brian Thomas. He should come down with that. That was also he did create separation down the field against Derek Stingley.

Yeah. So, like that's where I think it's still a buy low because he's way too damn fast and all it takes is like four or five 50-yard touchdowns, which will happen this year to make up for all this. But this is the difference between when we're talking about Nico Collins versus Brian Thomas, Aman Ross Brown versus Brian Thomas, like those type of guys. Yeah. I mean, but those guys were, they were drafted right next to each other. Uh, Brian Thomas is just not there, uh, in terms of the zone feel and this offense, like I'm sure we'll get to that too, is pre-snap penalties, they're struggling on like who's getting the screen, like when they're checking into plays, the wide receivers don't know where to line up and stuff. So it's like probably one of these situations where Liam Cohen's playbook is like maybe a couple pages too long and they're, it's just going to take some time to get there. But I do think that this thing will get better as the season progresses and I think that Brian Thomas is going to be like the thumbnail of that. So I would still be buying well.

Yeah. And Trevor's still missing some throws, too. Like this is really simple analysis, but if we sit here in week 15 and Britain Strange and Parker Washington are still this team's top two leading receivers.

Yep.

That would be just a ridiculous world to live in. You know, that's just not possible to me. So, this is going to change. I don't know when exactly it's going to change because it's multi-layered. And so, why don't you speak on the uncertainty that so many people pre-nap in this offense, especially Travis Hunter, seem to have right now.

Well, it's been multiple plays, multiple weeks. They had to call a four on a fourth and two in the fourth quarter. The game's all tied up and they had to call a timeout because Travis, uh, Hunter didn't know if he was supposed to be motioning or not. Um, and like going into that, the broadcast was like, "Who does Trevor Lawrence trust?" Like, that's what they were saying as this all was happening. He's like, "Who does Liam Cohen trust? Who does Trevor Lawrence trust?" And then immediately it's a timeout. So, it's one of these situations where I went back and and watched Travis Hunter and there was one thing I did note on his wide receiver snaps is it was a lot fewer of like the choice route stuff. Like there was like, to me, on purpose this last week, a lot more downfield routes. This is all coping. I just think there is a chance where he can catch some downfield plays because I know that he's capable of doing that. So, that was like the one refreshing thing. But really, like, if you can't line up properly, you can only be out on the field for so much. Uh, so I'm very curious to see what they're going to do because Diami Brown's got a shoulder injury, but also there's been some injuries at corner, too. Uh, I think that his corner reps have been like okay, but he's also been like kind of dominated. Like.

Nico Collins ran right across his face on one for a slant. He's missed some tackles over the middle. He just looks small out there. So, it, it, it has not gone well. And I hope that the Jaguars are going to pick a side and like, instead of doing like 60/60 in terms of the split, like let's make this like 80/20, you know, like maybe more of that. But I don't know, man. Like he's having like a lot of mental mistakes and it's probably just because he's not practicing enough.

It makes you wonder if the plan that they had was actually well thought out. Uh, we do know again, because we track this all of preseason, that he went on that string of wide receiver practices, then got to a point where he was bouncing in between after a couple of just defensive practices. We also know he missed about a week of training camp just before the season started.

I don't know how that though impacts literally not knowing where to line up on the line of scrimmage. We've talked about this quite often where at Colorado, he practiced on just one side of the ball. And if you do that, then when he went in on offense, he was told what routes to run specifically from the sideline. And that's also a factor in why Colorado's passing offense was so vanilla and not complex. And now he's going into one with Liam Cohen, with pick plays down the field, getting to certain depths, rhythm and timing with the quarterback. And I don't know, it, it's really tough to, because I think Travis Hunter is an incredible talent, still an amazing individual in terms of wide receiver movement, but you just look at what they gave up. And again, you have to think to yourself, they must figure this out this year. Or it goes into the offseason of, oh well, the Browns got a starting linebacker, they got Mason Graham, they got a first-round pick in 2026. And the Jaguars, again, this is just through three games, got a guy who is playing mostly zone coverage on defense, so you can throw away from him, and then doesn't know where to line up on offense. That's where it's at right now through three games, and that doesn't make sense. And that, to me, can't track for 17 games.

Yeah, so for fantasy purposes, did want to note this. The Jaguars are once again second in wide receiver usage collectively. It's being split up. So, either Brian Thomas is going to start going off, Travis Hunter is going to start playing more wide receiver, it's going to start working. Or is it like Parker Washington, who somebody that we talked about on the waiver wire show, who had a season-high 16.1 expected fantasy points?

Who's a really good role player? Let's keep talking about him on the broadcast, too. Like, the coaching staff loves Parker Washington. When I, whenever I would go over and read John Shipley, he's like, "Hey, Parker Washington, like the training camp star." So, I do think there's like something to this Parker Washington stuff. Maybe we'll only leave a 12-person league DFS, see you in the pick 'em lobby type of play, but keep an eye on Parker Washington. And then also Brenton Strange, who also is like the one guy not dropping passes. Parker Washington's also dropping passes. Brenton Strange is out there. He's not like wowing you with his movement ability and stuff, but he's a good athlete and he's catching the damn ball and he's lining up correctly. So, I would not be surprised like one of these two guys kind of steps up uh in the interim. And we're seeing the exact same usage at running back too, with about 55% stuff going to ETN. Basil Tutin's popping in here or there like we talked about. Got the goal line touchdown very early on, and Laquent Allen is popping in for true pass protection stuff, and he is becoming a a very cool role player. He's not getting opportunities with it. He's not getting touches, but he is getting some snaps in real obvious passing situations. So again, that can change as we move forward. I still think Bachel Tutin, when we do our Sunday morning show, uh, is in the conversation, especially we get to injuries and and by weeks, because they are still running the ball incredibly effectively versus the opposite end of the passing game being so disjointed.

Also with Basel Tuton, we didn't talk about this, but a couple games ago, he had that receiving touchdown. The screen was going the other direction. He ran the other way. So like, even like Bashel Tuton is not like knowing up uh knowing where to line up. So he's still an elite handcuff. Love him. Uh, Travis ETN's the RB10 and RB7 team. US remains a a start here. Um, but just like they're making more mistakes on offense than any other team in the league, just like procedurally understanding the playbook, and they're still moving the ball.

They're moving the ball. Like if you look at just like success rate in general, it's like fine. Like the all their per drive metrics are totally fine. Like that's the encouraging stuff with Liam Con is like his plays are working. The players just don't know them. So who knows? We we had questions about the offensive line entering the year and how we thought it didn't match what Tampa Bay had last year. And yet the offensive line, we're not really talking about. And then the defense, for how much they invested in it over the last couple years, had underperformed. And the defense has stepped up in a massive way so far this year too.

Yep. Josh Hines Allen's their best player by a mile.

Speaking of overperforming, let's talk about the Indianapolis Colts because I don't know if everyone is watching the Colts. I'm not every single Sunday. I'm going back on Mondays and Tuesdays and watching them. I will make the statement that the Colts passing offense is not fluky passing stuff. Like this time last year with the Saints, it kind of was. It was a bunch of downfield shots out of deep play action. They were hitting home runs and then injuries starting to pile up. But when you watch this Colt stuff, you can see how it translates week on week. Now, they haven't faced a ton of injuries. We know they've lost Alec Pierce for a concussion at least this week. But just some of the throws that Daniel Jones is making, like the throwback to Josh DS early where he was rolling to his left, he was under duress. It was 29 yards across the field, a perfect dot. Then the next snap, he like ripped it between a triangle of defenders to Alec Pierce for 15 yards. And then everyone says, "Well, he's not being pressured a lot." And sure, but then when he is, in those three, four, five plays per game, he's making things happen. Like the scramble that he had versus two free rushers. It just shows you that he has a lot of confidence in what he's doing. He knows the answers and then again, rather they've been than being pressured.

15 times per game. He can handle it in the four or five times per game.

Yep. This was against the Broncos two weeks ago, and I thought he handled himself well. And then he was very good once again in this one. I think just two data points to to make your point. Uh, they are ninth in neutral pass rate, even though Jonathan Taylor is a freaking mad man on the ground. They could they could just say, "Hey, we're giving the ball to Jonathan Taylor a million times in neutral situations." Like, "No, there's like still being aggressive through the air because they have confidence in Daniel Jones." And then I'm looking at the density charts of just like where he's attacking uh this year versus previous. And it's not like that big of a difference, but he's making a lot more throws in the 15 to 25 yards down the field. Uh, which is, I think, like the most valuable area on the football field, like one of the hardest areas to to hit. And he's making those throws a lot more than he has in previous seasons. So, um, I think that he's looked healthy, which has not always been the case, but he's like sliding around the pocket like you said, and Shane Sten's a good ball coach, and they got good skilled guys. So, I I'm I'm buying them as a top 10 offense moving forward. And like right now, if you're looking at some of the numbers, like they're the number one offense in the NFL. Um, I could see them finishing as the sixth, seventh, eighth best offense. And it's one of the coolest stories uh going right now.

Our buddy Reeves pointed this out. 73% of Colts drives have reached the red zone or scored a touchdown prior. That is by far and away number one in the NFL. We need to talk about these pass catchers though, like Tyler Warren, especially because he ranks among tight ends is very safe and he's going to get his opportunities every single game, even if it might not be a massive stealing one. So far, uh, we love Josh DS as an individual talent. Hayden, even with this team being so successful, both phases running and throwing the football, he still hasn't gotten there. And I don't know if I can paint a picture for him to get there with it kind of looking like to me the zone side of the field, like the zone concepts are going to Michael Pitman, and then you have like the man side concepts that can be Tyler Warren or Alec Pierce or whoever else, because Pitman has been so good at sitting in these zones and having a great feel and working on his string with Daniel Jones so far.

Yeah, Josh DS did not graduate to two wide receiver sets. I think Alec Pierce has been very good for this offense. Um, so like I get why. Um, I just think that the Colts are too good now for Josh DS, who who needed the garbage time in the three wide receiver sets, but if they're going to be controlling games like they have been, then it's going to be harder for him to get home. I think it's a good good shot on Michael Pitman right now. He's the wide receiver 13 on wide receiver 46 usage. I think that number could even go up a little bit when they're not like blowing some teams out. Um, he gets the RPO targets. Um, he did in this offense a couple years ago with Gardenner Mchu. So, and he's also just like a good football player that was like dealing with a huge back injury last year, like obviously playing through it. So, um, his numbers of like the last like 17 healthy games like on pace for like 100 receptions. So, I would not like discount Michael Pitman just because you don't think that he's like really fast. He's like a good player specifically for this offense and I do think that he should be a a weekly start, especially in full PPR.

And Jonathan Taylor, if we were redrafting today, the 101. I mean, Tim Pookah, there's only a couple guys I would. He's my RB RB one for sure.

Seattle Seahawks are next. So, when Mike McDonald took over this team last year, one of his first hires was bring in Ryan Grub to handle the offense. Came from the University of Washington with Michael Penn and Roma Dun and Jaylen Pulk, if you remember that name, and Jaylen McMillan as well. They spread it out and launched the footballs down the field. After one season, 17 games, Mike McDonald said, "No, thank you." And now with Clint Kubak, Hayden, they have rewound the clock. They have gotten in the time machine and basically gone back to, I don't know, 2007 for this offense. They have faced base personnel defense at a 51% rate so far this year. That's the most in the NFL because they have the lowest use of three wide receiver sets, the second highest rate under center. And so this is exactly what Mike McDonald wants to bring to the table, and it's also a really good platform for Sam Darnold to have a lot of success right now.

30th in neutral pass rate. They're getting under center. They're throwing the ball downfield. Uh, there's been even a couple reps where they have no backs on the field. They have two tight ends and three wide receivers as like a wrinkle, and they're getting some explosives out of that. And like that's just like a funky uh thing for defenses to have to kind of figure out. There's they're doing some like tiny little wrinkles, but really it's just like throw the ball downfield, big crossing routes, and it's a great fit for Sam Darnold, who's got, I think he's got a case for like the most underrated quarterback in the NFL right now. The last couple years, I thought he got discounted last year, and he was making like massive throws. He creates this last game. It was shocking how many plays he made out of structure, like shedding guys, throwing on the run uh, both sides, and then also a huge play down the field to JSN, who that was like just a man coverage on the outside, and just ran by somebody, which we have not seen from JSN too often, but that's like what they needed in this offense to to work that downfield stuff, and JSN has like grown up and like been not a slot wide receiver on the outside, winning intermediate and even winning down the field uh, which has helped him be a wide receiver one in fantasy. So, it's like big shout out to Sam Darnold and Clint Kubak. Like, that's a marriage that I think is like really, really working.

Tory Horton popped up with obviously a punt return touchdown and a splash play receiving touchdown. Again, my only concern is this team is by far and away last in the NFL in 11 personnel sets, three wide receivers. So, he's not someone that is on my radar at this moment. But, it's not like Cooper Cup is, you know.

No.

Playing lights out. At some point, Tory Horton could either take over or an injury can happen to Cooper Cup, and when that does happen, that will be fun because Tory Horton definitely has the juice. He definitely has the speed. And yeah, JSN in these crosser routes, working underneath, getting intermediate and even downfield uh, out of the tight splits and everything has been a joy to watch. And we definitely need to bring up this running back position. They play on Thursday. So, I think the Monday injury report was just an estimation. And so, Zach Sharpet did get a full participation list on there. We'll get more details here on Tuesday and Wednesday. They already called up another, I think, practice squad running back or signed another one as well to the main roster. So, we will see. But in these last two games as really being the starter, Ken Walker uh has been the running back seven and running back 10. And on the season, he's running back 15 at this point.

Yeah. So, without Charbanet last week, 13.2 expected points, and with the two games with Charbanet, 8.7. So, he did get a bigger workload with him, and I think that he's played very well and he deserves not to do the drive-by-drive rotation with Charbanet return. So, uh, we'll see. I'm guessing that Sharon is going to return for Thursday night, and I will have Kenneth Walker as the RB18, and we have lots of runway to to go up with that.

Los Angeles Chargers are next. Talk about a team changing their style. Who would have thought, Hayden, a year, two years ago, Greg Roman, his team would lead the NFL in 10 personnel, four wide receiver sets, and it's not even close. Okay, after three games, the Chargers have utilized four wide receiver sets on 14% of their snaps. The next closest team in the league are the Miami Dolphins at 2.4%. I know that we're and me are pointing out something that's only happening 14% of the time, but it's a good identification of who the Chargers have now leaned into being. And it's let's build the whole freaking thing around our superhuman quarterback and Justin Herbert and let him spread it out and touch every single blade of grass at the football.

Really smart player with a cannon of an arm. Let's just pass the football with him. It seems like a smart strategy. And then even in um, three wide receiver sets. Now, this last week, they have a Ronda Gadson as their their single tight end on some of their plays. He was basically a wide receiver at Syracuse, and he actually made like three or four play like very nice plays for a rookie. Um, so like that's another little wrinkle where yeah, if it's three wide receivers. Uh, but really like he's almost like a fourth wide receiver too, on top of that. So easily number one in neutral pass rate right now. It's very sustainable. Keenan Allen has been amazing uh against zone coverage, but he also has some man coverage wins. Lad McConi is not even being utilized that much, but he's been very successful on a per target basis. Then Quinton Johnson is obviously the big story line. Just like he's actually making like real plays, and he's the wide receiver 10 in usage right now. So all these guys are must starts, and that's before we get to the Hampton stuff, but like really, I think that Herbert's going to get some MVP votes in this offense. And I think like like you said, he could have that Joe Burrow lead the league in passing yards type of type of season if this thing kind of keeps up. I brought up the 10 personnel stuff because they didn't run a single snap in 10 personnel all of last season, and it shows you kind of the differences in personnel and the confidence that they have in these guys, because last year it was just Vlad Makoni for the last twothirds of the season, and then now you bring in Kelan Allen, he's playing at a high level. Quinton Johnson, it's amazing what confidence can do to a player. I mean, he had 10 targets this past week, and he's making legit plays out there. And Hayden, we can point, you know, positivity in the direction of both those players, and then everyone's going to say, "Well, I took Vladimunk in the second round and he's wide receiver of 49. That is not helping me. What should I do?" Is it as simple as one, Lad Mani is still a very good player, but Justin Herbert is not throwing him the football at the same rate that he did last year when Lad was, you know, number one by far and away talent on that team. But at the same time, I can talk out the other side of my mouth and say that they are number one in neutral pass rate. They want to throw the football all the time. And so if it's working for Keenan Allen and it's working for Quinton Johnson, at some point it is going to work for Lad Man, too.

That's where I sit. They're number one in wide receiver usage collectively, and Lad Mcconis just has the lowest target share of the three, which I think if I was ranking them rest of season, I would say Lad Mani is going to finish number one in targets uh in this offense, and he will be very efficient on them. I do think though Keenan Allan Allen is better than even like I loved Keenan Allen in the draft like once he signed. He's better than I even was kind of dreaming of, and then Quinton Johnson is light years better than anybody was expecting after the last couple years. So I do think the target share number that he has. I do think it's lower than what we would have guessed before the season because like the talent around him is like obviously much better, but he's gonna have some massive games still. So he's maybe like kind of like Drake London where like better days are coming. He's a buy low. Would I draft him 18th overall if I was doing drafts today? I probably wouldn't. Would I draft him in the third round? I I definitely would. So, I think maybe a small loss might be coming our way, but I would be trying to buy low on Lad McConi because this offense is going to be one of the best in the league like very easily.

That's the point. You are, you know, still believing and staying patient with a guy who's in one of the best offenses, if not the best offense in the league right now, you know. So, it's easier to stay patient with that because, you know, big games are on the way. Even if, you know, they're running 11 personnel at a high rate, if the other two guys are getting more targets at this point, that can flip at any point. It really can. And it's more likely to do that uh in an offense and more likely to be successful in an offense. That's really, really good. Okay, the running back stuff. This is really straightforward. Naji Harris, unfortunately, goes down with an Achilles injury. Um, we know what happened in week two with the Martin Hampton fumble and not having any production, and then as soon as he steps in, Hayden, it was so funny to go back and watch his tape because it truly is, hey, let's get him a crease between the tackles. Let's get him on the edge. Let's get him downhill and let's let the big man run really fast in a straight line. And that is the entire mission statement for Amarin Hampton.

Yep. I would take him as a top 10 running back rest of season. He had 18.9 expected points. Uh this last week. Um and we got bailed out if you drafted Omarian Hampton. Like Naji Harris was playing more snaps and giving the ball more than Omarian Hampton. Then only after that is when he balled out, but they don't have any other options here. Uh I thought that Omar and Hampton's tape was still average. Uh but.

But it doesn't matter.

It doesn't matter. And you're blessed to be next to Justin Herbert. How many times on that on his receptions was it just Justin Herbert either going from the left side of the field, going all the way back and checking it over, or knowing that uh he's hot, he's just gonna get the ball out to Hampton. So like he's.

Herbert is putting Omar and Hampton in the best possible spots, and there will be some 50-yard touchdown runs because Hampton is so fast out there. So it doesn't really matter. This is like fantasy versus real life. I almost don't want to talk about him as an individual anymore because it sounds negative, and it should only be a positive lens that you're viewing Amarian Hampton in moving forward. And on top of that, I think he actually is a positive in the receiving game, just from definitely confidently catching the football. Again, 29 and 39, I think, receptions over the last two years at UNCC, and that included a year with uh with Drake May. So, he definitely has skills in the passing department, too. All right, we'll close out the top 10 with the Tampa Buccaneers. Another unfortunate injury, but one that isn't unsurprising because Mike Evans over multiple seasons has dealt with, let's say, chronic hamstring issues. It popped up in week three, and according to Tom Pelisero, it'll keep him out for multiple weeks. Now, last year he had a hamstring issue, and he missed 34 days. Uh, Pelisero wanted to note that he doesn't believe that this one is as significant. So, Hayden, it kind of sounds like two games. They're already without Chris Godwin. They are without three offensive linemen, at least for now. And then something just to note on that is Baker Mayfield's time to throw was down at 2.44 seconds in week three. That's basically a half second quicker than he typically is as a starting quarterback. So, I'll start with Mike Evans first. Like hamstring injuries at this age, like.

Especially when it's going to be like his final year. Like when you looked at his contract, it had boy years on top of it.

What we need to happen though is this 1,000 yards. And we know what happened last year.

To force feed him three passes in a row, and then everyone celebrated on the sideline just to get 104 yards. That's going to be even more difficult once he gets back this year.

No. Yeah. I think it's I think it's going to be very difficult. I I would kind of sell Mike Evans at this point. Like, hey, it's only going to be two weeks. Like, he'll be back. I just I feel like you're rushing a hamstring back. Like, that's like the best case scenario. I don't know about all that. And then when he does come back, Chris Godwin will be reintegrated into the lineup. And then AMCA has just been like.

How many will come back at some point too?

Yeah, that too. So, yeah. Uh, I would be selling Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, and I would just continue to buy a Mecca. He's going to finish easily as the top guy in this offense. Um, and the dude just keeps making plays like in he did have a limited snap count, and it didn't matter because when he's on the field, he keeps making plays, one-handers, the other one like in a contested situation, he's just total monster. Like we've seen like screen game, yards after the catch, winning on post routes, and contested catches, and one-handed catches. Like it's been three games, you know? It's crazy.

I got sick of us talking about a mecha during, you know, the July and August months of the summer. He's the wide receiver 10.

In points right now. It's pretty easy.

Yeah. Yeah. And all this is without one of the best left tackles in the game, Tristan Wor, who it sounds like he might be coming back this week. He might be on a pitch count, but even that, that would be all right. Without the right tackle, without the right guard right now, it's like credit to Baker Mayfield. Like, you know, in previous situations with this distress on the offensive line, that time to throw number would be at 3.8, and the time to sack ratio would be right there with it. He's just playing better, more gutsy, and he's not even at full health right now. So, I mean, he deserves like a ton of credit. I feel like the the the tide's kind of turning around Baker Mayfield. And I do think that he's like on the cusp of being like a top 10 NFL quarterback. He just like keeps showing up out there right now, and he's just been sensational. They're three and oh. It's crazy.

All right, time to go alphabetical order the rest of the way. Before we do that, just a reminder, if you want to support us, the best way of doing that is to support Underdog. Use promo code the show. Man, do we have some exceptional deals and promos for you throughout the week. Number one is the witching hour on Sundays. As soon as you hear Scott Hansen say it is the witching hour. Pavlovian stuff. Open up your phone, get all your discounts, get all the tokens, get everything in the app. You'll be amazed if you've never played an underdog that I think it's in 41 of 50 states on some level at this point. So, go and play. Open up the dog app and use promo code the show. We'll give you $50 once you play $5 for first-time users. Okay, Arizona Cardinals time. You and Jacob did a great had a great discussion, a great show on the waiver episode on Monday night. Anything you want to add here about Trey Benson coming in for James Connor, who I still feel like are very different runners, and I do wonder if Drew Pettson kind of changes his rushing scheme in order to accentuate the strengths of Trey Benson's style, which is much more getting to the edge and get him out in space.

I thought he needed development time as a prospect, and we're getting into the point of his career where he should have had enough time to develop. I do think that they missed the uh run game coordinator that is now with the Cowboys, who by the way, are number one in rushing success rate. Which is pretty crazy. Um, but I don't want to nitpick this one. He played 85% of the snaps without James Connor this last week. There's only so many guys that play that many snaps. So like, do I love the offense? I don't. Like, do I love Trey Benson? I don't. But to I I'll love anybody that's on the field for 85% of the snaps at running back.

Exactly. So like he's a top 20 guy for the rest of the season. Even if I want to nitpick some of the profiles, it's kind of like it's a worse version of the Marian Hampton stuff. Like get him in there.

Yep. It really is that simple. I do wonder like who are their power players? You all already knew it was Trey McBride. You.

Especially in the red zone. This team had struggled in the past. Trey McBride's a power player. But.

No, I'm saying, but that's it. Just him. There's no power play.

And so when when they now get into the red zone, we already know about Trey McBride's struggles outside of week three and scoring that one touchdown in that area. So much of it in the past was okay, we get some Kyler scrambles, and then we get really when we're close to goal line, James Connor. I do wonder if some of that goes away, especially third and short, fourth and short, those types of things, and if Trey Benson can kind of fill that role, but it doesn't matter. He's going to get all the opportunities to do it. I just kind of worry about the top down view of this Cardinal offense because it's, dude, it's exactly what it was last year. Let's not sugarcoat anything. I understand that like, hey, Mc Marvin Harrison Jr.'s is lining up here a couple more times, and he's running these types of routes a couple more times per game. It doesn't matter. The dude is still wide receiver 43 at this point. And for someone who needs to be a technician in his game and catch everything thrown his way, he's not catching everything thrown his way, and he's not dynamic at this moment.

Yeah, he's he does not look like a top 10 draft pick right now. He just doesn't catch ball. There was like the highlight one that everybody was posting, and like rightfully so, like he just dropped a punt. The other one, credit to Kyler, buying time, getting out there, throwing the ball downfield, and just hits right off his hands. Like that was a touchdown. Like.

I I didn't count that one cuz I don't think Kyler was throwing it to him. I think Kyler was throwing it to the corner of the end zone. I know it did. It did, but.

It hit his hands.

You know, I I definitely could have brought that one up on Sunday night. I did not because I didn't think that was an actual Marvin Harrison Jr. target. I think he tried for it. Could have easily had a score, but did not.

Yeah. Either way, a better player catches that ball, and that's just the reality of the situation. Here's here's my take on the Cardinals. The defense is going to get worse because they have too many injuries in the secondary. The offensive line right now and the run game is worse than it was previously for a lot of reasons. Injuries being one of them. Right now, if they don't get their left tackle back, this is it's going to look really bad. I thought the backup was was horrific.

Trey McBride, how high would you draft him rest of season? We we're seeing the rest of the elite tight ends disintegrate. He's going to get so many targets. They he has not like been like blowing it up in terms of targets because the Cardinals have a a very soft schedule and they've been either leading or in close games. This team will be trailing plenty for the rest of the season, and Trey McBride's going to go crazy. They're throwing in screens at the five-yard line. His touchdown was a play action bootleg, get him out in space, and he still looks really good. I would take him I think inside the top 15 the rest of the season. I know he's not produced like that, but this is like been the best run out. Like we're not worried about Marvin Harrison taking that huge leap. They can't run the ball. The defense looks mediocre. Like he's going to get the rock spam to him. Uh, and I think they even can catch five, 10 touchdowns this year on top of it.

I am looking at the Cardinals schedule. It's not as difficult as some of these other teams. They play like some lesser opponents and then some really good ones. Okay, so it's the Seahawks on a short week on Thursday night, as we talked about. That one's at home though. Then it's the Titans, which you get an extended period for, which is a really nice matchup for them. Then the Colts after that, which have been the best surprise in the NFL through three weeks. Then the Packers, and you get the Cowboys, and then the Seahawks again. So like, they should really take advantage of those Titans and Cowboys games, but it's the other ones. It's the, you know, multiple Seahawks. It's the Colts game. It's the 49ers. It's the Jaguars playing at their level right now. So, and then, yeah, they even get like the Texans and the Bengals to close this thing out. So, like I think the playoffs are still a possibility here. I just follow a good amount and have conversations with Arizona people online, and they are frustrated with this offense not taking the step in what year three of this, and it should. It needs to, and it hasn't looked really any different than the frustrations that it gave them last season.

Yeah, I thought Kyler played decent football this last game, and everything around him fell apart. So, it's just not good. He's not so good that he's going to elevate a bad football team around him. And right now, like the roster is just like not very good. And it's unfortunate, and like James Conor is like a captain of this team, too. So, hopefully they don't like mail this one in, but I don't think there's a a NFL playoff team. Buffalo Bills, they're very good. Speaking of, James Cook is the running back two right now. Josh Allen is the quarterback, too. And Don Concincaid is the tight end three at this moment. Uh, anything else you want to add about this Buffalo's Bills team, which again, outside of those three names, it highly fluctuates between the top wide receiver, if there even is a top wide receiver. Yeah, all of the wide receivers are outside the top 40 in expected points. And right now, the wide receiver one in in usage is Keon Coleman, who dominated in the first week when they were trailing by multiple touchdowns, which how many times are the Bills going to be down by 14 this rest of the season? Maybe never. Their their schedule. I mean, my god, their schedule is so easy the rest of the way. So, I'm not sure if I can start any of the Buffalo Bills wide receivers. Of course, all of them are going to have random big games when you're attached to this offense, but the reliability is just not there. Um, James Cook's usage is up this year versus this last season. So, like I think that he deserves a top fiveish conversation for for running back right now. And then I I guess Concade's the most interesting. I don't know what to do with this, and I'm not even going to pat myself on the back for like getting on this one. It's the same role. 62% of the routes, you know.

It's just a really good team. So, that role is better than on a worse team.

Yes. And he's playing a little bit more. Couple more screens. Some of the design stuff is helping him out.

But you didn't anticipate Jackson Halls even playing this much.

Well, I did like Jackson Halls in the draft. Me for that one. But.

But it's not like he's he's not even just like, you know, competing with Dawson Knox for running game snaps, too. It's now Jackson Hall's on top of it.

For sure. I will say this, this is such a good team without a legit wide receiver one, and that was the thesis, and like that is like obviously been playing out. So, he's tight end eight in usage, which is not a lot in expected points, but the rest of the tight end position is so bad that I would be drafting Dalton Concade as a top eight tight end rest of season. No question about it.

Would you rather have Concaid or Jawan Johnson rest of season?

Jawan.

Okay, we'll get to him in a second. Kate could be a a nice sell high at this point. Uh, and and flip for tight end stuff out there if you wanted to do that. You mentioned the schedule. I know it can be difficult to look ahead for every single team. I'll do it for the people out there. It's the Saints, the Patriots, the Falcons, and the Panthers over the next four weeks here for the Buffalo. I mean.

What does this game?

The rest of that division is miserable.

Yeah.

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Yeah, they have not played in a normal game yet. It's been blowout losses or the one blowout win. With that said, looking at the averages, the Panthers are fifth in wide receiver usage collectively, and they're third in neutral pass rate. So, we'll give it a couple more weeks for let to let that kind of like even out, but they're passing the ball a little bit more. And that wouldn't be that surprising when you lose your center and your right guard like dominant like rush run blockers be like, "Hey, we need to like spread this thing out." Or if they just pass the ball more because they have Ted Row McMillan. So, I think he's a buy low. I guess he's wide receiver 29 and wide receiver 13 usage. Um, and there.

He's been like this close to some misplays. Like we know in week one against the Jaguars, he got one hand on a vertical route. This past week, there was a chance for him to get like a 75-yard screen that was a double bluff that Dave Can drew up on a whiteboard that I'm sure looked great there that went through his hands, and maybe if he had gotten he would at least gotten 30 yards that just had to make the safety miss. And then there was like a miscommunication between he and Bryce, which was probably on the quarterback on a deep post that if he had led him, then it might have been a long, but then he forced it more up the middle of the field, and so he did a twist and turn and only got one hand down again.

Yeah. But even on this one, he beat a guy off the line of scrimmage yards after the catch on a crossing route and like a breaker, and it was just looked dominant. So he's he's sensational. I I think that he would be potentially a top three overall pick if we were redrafting right now. And I think that he's the offensive rookie of the year um so far. He looks like a above average ex receiver as as a rookie. Pretty sweet.

Yeah, I mean, again, the passing offense looks way worse when they're not targeting T-Mac.

Remember when everyone said like he didn't like football? Like what was the nonsense? I mean.

Yeah.

The NFL draft process is too long. Too long. I I don't really want to bring that stuff up. It just never really made sense when uh when he was just awesome on the field and then even improved his game during his final year in terms of forcing his tackles and winning after the catch. And then you even saw the volleyball background here, which I'm sure some NFL teams hated or draft pro evaluators hated. And he literally floats in the air for a third-down conversion. He's just a really good football player, and he's what he's finishing on contact, like finishing with strength on top of it, too. So.

Yeah, one of my buddies was a college volleyball player. If you guys have been around like college or college level volleyball players, these guys, like you said, are floating. Like that's what Ted looks like.

Chicago Bears, we discussed this at length on Sunday night, but let's do a short recap here. Uh most of all, you all need to have extreme confidence in playing Roma Dunay at this point. He has separated from the pack. And Hayden, I I'll be interested to see what your expected points say. I don't know if he's one of these players that has quote unquote performing over expectation because he has still left about, you know, three catches, 75 yards, and a touchdown on the field, too, because of drops.

Yep. Yeah. All that's true. He's wide receiver three on wide receiver seven usage. So, it's like everything about this is real. And in my notes, just watching him, he's getting all like the normal drop back looks. Like you're getting some like fun stuff to DJ Moore and Luther Burden, and like Luther Burton's like in there for like all the trick plays and gadget stuff, but like when it's like, hey, we just need a first down, the ball is just going to um Roma Dunce, who's like, like you said, not a perfect player right now, but he can win in man coverage, he can run crossing routes, he looks like a great athlete. Um, and this offense is passing the ball a ton. Uh, and yeah, they're number five uh in neutral pass rate right now on top of that. So, it's been a fun offense. defense. I think Caleb's playing really good football right now, and I think that DJ Moore is at risk of Luther Burden touches. Uh, and I think that Roma Dun is like the the constant in this offense right now.

Yeah, this is a really easy team I think to discuss at this point. They are still trying to like manufacture some stuff for DJ Moore, getting him in the backfield and giving him legit handoffs. I know our buddy JT Sullivan pointed out that DJ Moore has even improved maybe some of the technical work and his effort on some of these routes on the outside on top of it, but I just don't know how this moves away. I'm not saying Rome's going to be the wide receiver three on the season, but a finish as a top 12 wide receiver is 100% in the range of outcomes here. Uh this team, the Bears, after being one and two to open the year, do have the Raiders, the Commanders, and the Saints over the next three weeks. So, two of those are like eruption spots for this offense.

Something to note, the Bears are using these really funky personnel groupings where they're using DJ Moore as the running back here. Um, and I think that they're going to do the same thing with Luther Burden, too. So, like they might get interesting in how they use their running back where DeAndre Swift's off the field so they can get into empty formations, which Caleb is very comfortable with, and they got some explosives out of that. But we're seeing some DJ Moore uh touches at running back. And on the broadcast, Caleb uh was talking to I

forget who it was. Uh, but he said that the comp for DJ Moore is Debo Samuel, which we've been saying on the pod, which is pretty cool to hear that, but it makes sense. And they're starting to use him a little bit more, Debo Samuel.

Right now, the Bears are third in the NFL with an 85th% red zone touchdown success rate. Um, they haven't gotten to the red zone that many times, just 2.3 drives per game because they, you know, score two long touchdowns that we saw last week.

Again, I do wonder if they make the playoffs, if they don't, if they get close to it, how much the running game does come back to bite them, or if it can be aided once they go along this season. But from a passing game standpoint, it feels like they figured it out. And look, not everything can be figured out in one offseason. I understand that. At the same time, the team had a lot of salary cap and a lot of, you know, four top two round draft picks in order to invest something in that running game, and they did not. So again, you just hope it doesn't come back to bite them as we go along. But at the same time, like DeAndre Swift can give you the explosive play that he gave you last week in the spring game. That's just who he is.

Last note I had for Caleb Williams. A bunch of the quarterbacks in pre-draft rankings are like no longer part of the discussion. Like Bo Nix has been playing bad, Dak, Brock Purdy's injured. I think that Caleb Williams, and I had him quarterback three this last week in a perfect matchup, I think I would take him top eight rest of season, uh, maybe even higher than that without Joe Burrow and some of these guys. So I would not underrate Caleb Williams' stock now that he's running a lot. You're getting some explosive passes and their top corner is out for the year, Jaylen Johnson. So they're going to be in plenty of shootouts the rest of the season.

Cincinnati Bengals. So we mentioned that last time that Jake Browning got a run of starts. He had like seven top 10 or five top 10 quarterback weeks out of the seven starts that he had. Obviously, this past week was terrible, miserable. Uh, I would still try to sell T. Higgins and Chase Brown as much as I could at this point. Chase Brown is running back 31. Maybe someone points to his usage and all this type of stuff and says, "Oh, he's still dominating the snaps and he'll turn it around." It's like the compounding factor of a backup quarterback and this offensive line that is like a non-starter for this offense right now.

I agree. Chase Brown's season low 11 expected half PPR points, and he's just been a below model player because he's mediocre and this offensive line can't block anybody right now. So yeah, I Jamar Chase's season low 6.8 expected fantasy points. T. Higgins' season low 3.3. Uh, but T. Higgins, like his target rate has plummeted without Joe Burrow, and that's been the last couple seasons, and I think that makes some sense. So there's only one guy to save this team, and he lives in New York and he's looking for a job.

So we'll see. We'll see. Do you see?

Barry said, "Hey, let's see."

This is such a great bet by you.

What a bet. What a bet you have. Don't worry, Hayden. Uh, we also get this Bengals team on Monday Night Football this week. That's going to be fun to watch, facing off against a Denver Broncos defense looking for revenge. And then after that, it's the Detroit Lions and the Green Bay Packers. Those are the next three games for this Bengals team. So again, sell high. I mean, I don't know what you can get, and you're not going to get the value. You're not getting the number one pick back. I am still looking to sell Jamar Chase. That might be a ridiculous thing to say in the fantasy football bubble that we live in. He was the number one overall selection. If anyone can break models and break tackles and do all that stuff, I would be looking to move Jamar Chase at this point. The value is only gonna get worse over these next three weeks. I think.

Yeah, until Russia shows up. Uh, I would trade like Chase Brown for Cam Scottville, you know, like to me is like.

You got to do it.

Next, Cleveland Browns.

Why don't I start with their defense first since we're mentioning defense so much in this? It's the year of the defense. Okay, so they faced off against the Green Bay Packers. As we had previously said, the Packers were so balanced on both sides of the ball, and their offense was so good at attacking down the field. I mean, Jordan Love had a 9.2 A DOT last year. He opened it with a 10.8 and a 15 average depth of target this season. Then he was forced into a minuscule 1.7 AOT in week three. Like, no defense is controlling matchups like this one right now. Now, I understand many people are going to say, "Well, Lamar Jackson did it to them." We're talking about Lamar Jackson here. Okay. The other part of this Browns team and their defense, too, is not only they're preventing passing, you also can't run on them. And they've only allowed 46, 45, and 81 rushing yards. And that's against Chase Brown, Derrick Henry, and Josh Jacobs. So, so often we talk about offenses controlling the tempo and the identity of games. The Browns defense is doing that.

Kevin Stefanski summed this one up perfectly. He said Miles Garrett should be Defensive Player of the Year in perpetuity. And like they might as well just name the damn award after him. You can't block him in any phase now that they have like legit defensive tackle um behind him and a Schwinger of the UCLA Bruin who I liked. He's showing up well. They've got Denzel Ward like in man coverage, and Schwartz has been a very good play caller when he's got the guys going, too. Like.

It's so fascinating to see just like their defensive shells.

Because it looks like they have like six players rushing the passer every single time because.

The four of them are.

Just demolishing these offensive linemen. Then there's a line of coverage at about seven to 10 yards down the field of linebackers and corners. Then they have two safeties behind it. So, it's like these three tiers of deadly weapons that the Browns defense has, and it's instant penetration, and then short passes that this wave of six defenders is closing in on, and then they're just.

Frolicking in the back half with no one trying to throw the football back there.

Yeah, and all that just because of Miles Garrett. The one clip of the left tackle for the Packers yelling, "Jordan, he's coming." So funny. Uh, yeah, Miles Garrett's the best non-quarterback, most valuable non-quarterback in the NFL. It's like no question. Like, all due respect to Justin Jefferson, you know, Tristan Worf and Jamar Chase and Micah Parsons, he's he's the guy. He's he's Aaron Donald right now.

Okay, on offense, it's Quinn Judkins. So, this past week, he again dominated the work. And against a really good Packers defense that had done exceptionally well this year, he really reeled off some big plays towards the end of the game that really helped them out. He profiles and looks like a bell cow running back. He was that at Miss, and then he goes to Ohio State to play the Dame Montgomery to Trevon Henderson's J.K. Dobbins. That is the combo that they brought up uh behind the scenes. And so he shared that backfield, but it's very clear that he runs with power, he will pick up yards, block for him, and he has the juice to again convert these 10, 20 yard runs once given the second and third levels. He's got the best uh rookie running back film so far. Two game sample for him, but he's been ripping off big plays. His burst, vision, and contact balance have been really good. He can catch the ball out of the backfield, too. The Browns are third in running back usage collectively. Obviously, some of that was Dylan Samson in week one with all those checkdowns, but he's like completely iced out Dylan Samson. Uh, and he's icing out Jerome Ford, and it's just him. So, I'm curious to see like what the neutral pass rate for the rest of the season is going to look like because they came out like really hot, but they can like run the ball with Quinn Judkins at this point. It's not even a good offensive line, too. So he's gonna have to like make some big plays, but you can just like feel his burst like immediately. So, he was really good last week. Just 15.5 expected half PPR points. That was his first game, you know, with like actual practice reps. So, he looks like one of like the guys that you wanted to and bought the dip with all the off-field stuff. The other part of this though is he needs the defense to be like generationally good because this passing offense is not. Okay. So if Quinn Judkins was on a team and the Browns still might go, I don't know, three and 14 this year, right? Many other three and 14 teams, it can be a struggle for the running back to have success because the defense is so brutal that you're just constantly chasing these games. And that possibly could still happen like it did against the Ravens when they were down, you know, 41-17 and you had to reel off that 30 yarder in the fourth quarter in garbage time. But these other teams, again, the Bengals, that one is very close, 17-16. We know what happened this past weekend against the Browns, or excuse me, against the Packers, that was 13-10. Close games are going to be very meaningful for Quinn Judkins, and not just for a half, but for an entire game, and that is possible with this defense. You do get the Lions this week, so we'll see what happens because that Lions offense is very good. It's a really fun matchup on paper, but it does give me more hope for like the good player on good team motto, whereas you can have like one good offensive asset on a really bad team if the defense keeps you in games long enough and keeps the scoreboard close enough.

Yeah, I think that's all fairly sticky. And like, even if the defense is so bad, like he's just not coming off the field very much right now, and he looks good on top of that, too. So, have you seen anything like he obviously dodged the commissioner's exempt list, but I think that's.

Zero reporting on it.

Yeah, NFL investigation. I think it's like still ongoing. So, like there could be a point where he gets suspended for a couple games here. Like I'm not ruling all that out. But the fact that they could have placed him on the commissioner's exempt list and like they just haven't, I think it's probably a sign that even if a suspension does come, it's only going to be one, two games at this point too. And usually they don't count the games that you missed, uh, which was the first week. So, yeah, weird situation, like no reporting off of this. I think for the most part, he's just going to be out there ready to go.

Well, and look, I don't want to do a mea culpa here or anything of that of, hey, I didn't draft enough Quinn Judkins this year. That was just one of the unique situations we've ever seen in fantasy football where a dude gets drafted in the second round, then can't go through offseason activities or an entire training camp. Your drafts are already completed before he even signs his contract, and then you have no idea if he's going to get suspended or anything.

Still don't.

Yeah.

And when he's going to sign. So like, sure, I'm sure many of you or other analysts were like, "Oh, I'm buying this dip on Quinn Judkins and all this type of stuff." Uh, you're already talking about 200 players across the league. And it's weird to then say, "Oh yeah, for this one that we have zero information about and no one's going to touch the field. Yeah, I'm definitely going to invest in that one, too." That's just my perspective on it.

There's always there's a price, and that's just the key thing to always, and we're always looking for upside. So maybe I had that one wrong.

Dallas Cowboys. And I love Quinn as a prospect. So, um, it's fun to see him be a really good player once he has touched the field. Let's put it that way.

Dallas Cowboys. George Pickens is already third in the NFL in red zone targets. This team is already attempting the most passes per game across the league. Now they have lost both C.D. Lamb and their first round offensive lineman. Hayden, listening to you and Jacob on the waiver show, you're kind of waving the white flag on this Cowboys offense.

Well, I mean, they don't have their starting center and their first round guard. I don't like their tackles, and C.D. Lamb's not a part of the picture. So, this team's like have garbage time numbers. Um, wait. I don't know. I haven't done my wide receiver rankings. Wait till you guys see where I have George Pickens ranked. Like, it is totally justified, I think, to have him as a wide receiver one for the next couple weeks. He had a season high 16.4 expected points this last week, like you said, in the red area. I I don't even think it's a smart play, but they are just trying to throw the ball to George Pickens, and like that should continue, especially when you don't have your two interior offensive linemen that are like needle movers in the ground game. They're massive, thick dudes up there. They're going to throw the ball to George Pickens. He's not even played well, and he's been fantasy relevant, you know, like dropped interceptions and just like same old George Pickens stuff, and it's this is the perfect run out for George Pickens. So, he's going to be a guy that you want. Jake Ferguson is the tight end one in usage so far, and last week that was at 17.8 expected half PPR points without C.D. Lamb. He's the safety blanket, which you'll need behind a really bad offensive line. So, yeah, I mean, like the offense is like completely funneled to two guys in the pass game, and then Javonte Williams doesn't come off the field very much. So like this is like a very offensive predicate over the next couple weeks.

Not to rehash the entire conversation we just had on the Cleveland Browns, but I do get worried that this Cowboys defense is so bad and so miserable that we will get into fourth quarters where this team isn't even close on the scoreboard. And so Dak and company might only play like a half of the fourth quarter and like leave one or two drives on the table versus, you know, other players that you're considering on your team. So like sometimes, you know, so often in fantasy discourse, it's, oh, well, their defense is going to be bad, so the offense has to score a lot of points.

There are also times when the defense can be so miserable and so detrimental that it affects and actually impacts negatively the offensive players, too.

Yeah, we're definitely flirting with that line. And then if Joe Milton comes in there, he will break somebody's hands. Did you see the Joe Milton reps? I have never seen, honestly.

Please just take two minutes later on just for your own entertainment. I have never seen a football move so fast.

Just to discuss the discourse that is around C.D. Lamb right now and how he got injured. Uh, he lined up in the backfield, got a handoff, tries to break it off tackle, and gets like a high ankle mechanism on a hip drop-ish tackle. I'm not going to call it a hip drop tackle. Um, Cowboys fans are very upset. I'll also say that C.D. Lamb, they've been using him and handing him the football a lot over the last five, six, seven years. He's averaged 6.8 yards per carry in his career. Now, a lot of those have been reverses and jet sweeps. But at the same time, this isn't the second, third, fourth, or fifth time they've ever lined him up at running back and handed the football off to him. They're just trying to get the football in their playmaker's hands. Now, again, Cowboys fans are upset because, oh well, now we have Javonte Williams, we should only give him the football. I've even gotten, Hayden, well, we have a 428 Jaden Blue who's inactive. We should be handing him the football instead of C.D. Lamb. This is just another way to get your best player the ball in his hands. And when that has happened previously, C.D. Lamb has had explosive plays and really good gains off of it. So, it's just bad luck to me how this happened to C.D. Yeah, these people would be complaining that they're not giving the ball to C.D. Lamb enough, you know, like it also is a highly effective play, like you mentioned on Twitter. So, yeah, he they could have ran a shallow drag route and the same thing would have happened. In fact, that happens all the time. So, we'll see. I I think he's probably going to miss a good three weeks here. Um, the schedule's not easy over these next three weeks either. Like, it's it's daunting what they got. So that's like the one thing in the back of my George Pickens brain right now is like a lot, everything's up for grabs for George Pickens' contract season. Like this is like you have a quarterback to win with. Like you're trying to be paid like a real wide receiver one. You're the ex-receiver of this team. Like go prove it these next three weeks. It's not an easy next three weeks on the schedule, but if he can do it, he's going to get a huge bag.

Spotlight on George Pickens. What could go wrong? Okay.

Punches might be thrown here. Let's let's let's watch.

Denver Broncos time. Unfortunately, Bo Nix continues to look bad. Uh, he is eight of 24 on throws 20 plus yards down the field right now with three interceptions. Um, and he's left like touchdowns on the table.

You know, he keeps overthrowing by a couple inches, a couple feet. We've seen it in the red zone to Marvin Mims and some other players, too. Again, he started really slow last year, but this is just another example like C.J. Stroud was at this time last year, too, where after you finish your rookie season on a high and really ascending, you think you go into year two with the same pieces that are even slightly improved, uh, another year with the play caller and say, "Well, it's only going to go up from here." It's just not the case. Like, progression isn't linear at all times. Um, and so it's why I think everyone had a different like quarterback six in drafts this year. It just so happened that the ADP had it as Bo Nix as quarterback six this year.

A lot of his pass game production was on that like bootleg, throw it across the field, and I just guess teams are like onto that bit. So he's going to have to play within structure a little bit more. Needs more yards after the catch. Um, guys, uh, the schedule hasn't been like totally easy, like facing the Chargers, obviously. Um, but yeah, I think for fantasy purposes, he needs to run more and then hit these downfield throws. And if he's not doing either one of those, which he really hasn't compared to last year, then you can't really start him. So, the guys you can start, Courtland Sutton bounced back after like a very rare dud. Troy Franklin, who could have seen this coming, complete rug pull. Um, so I don't know what to do with him. I don't start him would be my recommendation. And then until proven otherwise, the backfield's getting like pretty easy to predict. Like J.K. Dobbins is like getting everything. He also looks good, you know, like credit where it's due, like.

Yeah.

He's ripping off explosive plays and like they've not been like easy plays to make, and he's just been doing it. So, um, I think.

Yeah, it's interesting the chart that you're showing on screen with R.J. Harvey, they got him like two early manufactured touches on like the prescripted drive, and then after that, he really didn't get the football very much. So it was like, "Hey, we're going to practice these plays to open the game." And then he didn't incorporate them in like the real rhythm and feel of the contest as it were.

For sure. For sure. Yeah. I think just looked really good.

Uh, one final note, and I compared the Bo Nix stuff to C.J. Stroud. Obviously, last year with the Stroud stuff, no one could pick up a twist or stunt, and the offensive line decayed. That's not the case here with Bo Nix. Like, the offensive line is playing still incredible football. So maybe that that's two things here. One, hey, that means Bo Nix can turn around if he just plays better because he's the individual that has performed poorly. Or it's if he doesn't, that's really concerning because you can't blame it on the offensive line.

Yeah, he's the guy in the hot dog suit right now. So if he plays better, it'll look all right.

Okay, we'll talk about the Green Bay Packers again. No, J.J. Reid. We were hoping we were going to get like lessons learned on how they were going to handle the wide receiver room. Hayden, did we? And can we even extrapolate them after what I mentioned the Browns defense did to this passing attack and only throwing the football 1.7 yards down the field?

I thought last week was very optimistic for Matthew Golden, and I got some data to show it. 86% of the routes, and if you guys watch this game and I posted it onto Twitter, he was this close to a 96-yard touchdown where he won down the field and ran out of bounds. I mean, I don't know what he was thinking on this one, guys, but we were.

But he caught the ball. You mean he caught the ball?

He caught the ball. Yes, we we got our 35 yards or whatever it was. Jordan Love like maybe could have thrown it a little bit more inside, but he caught the ball, and then like he was already by the safety, and by the way, he runs past everybody and just went right out of bounds. So, if we would have counted that post route touchdown, the quarters, uh, just go ball, and then this one, we would be talking about the offensive rookie of the year. Instead, we have the wide receiver 80 in points. So, we're this close. He's not going to be facing Miles Garrett every single time. He's up to 86% of the routes. Like, that's the big takeaway. Like, the field opportunities with a quarterback that wants to do it. 86% of the routes. Big days are coming. Um, I can't believe that he ran out of bounds.

Yeah, I have nothing else to add. Um, I'd still trade for him in your league, man. Again, it's so early in the season. The thesis of drafting rookies is not to draft all of them, and then to also be patient with them because second half of seasons are constantly defined by rookie wide receivers. Even LaQuan Treadwell last season was not, you know, a big producer in the first three games. You can go on and on down the list. Amon-Ra St. Brown during his rookie Thomas. These are these are all different types of pass catchers that I'm talking about here.

But three games does not make a rookie profile. And they also don't play the Cleveland Browns every single week. So.

Yeah, and you got a screen. There's some more cheap motion stuff. So we got some more signs here in a closer to full-time role. Romeo Doubs, 94% routes, too. I think you can do worse. And by the way, who do they play this week? Josh, you have that that written down? The Dallas Cowboys. So we're starting Matthew Golden. You can start Romeo Doubs. You should start Tucker Kraft. And then Josh.

This is the time. Okay, let's plant our flag.

Go buy Matthew Golden. Schedule coming up. Cowboys, Bengals, Cardinals without all their corners, Steelers who have been dreadful so far. Then the Panthers. That is our next five games. This is your window to go and get Matthew Golden. And let's somewhat flourish for the rest of the year.

And Josh Jacobs.

Yeah, Josh Jacobs, buy low, too. He's RB5 in usage.

Yeah, my thing though, and Faras brought his name up as like this is my guy to go buy on the trade show last Thursday with everyone having their faces melted in a negative way at the running back position. Who was looking to offload Josh Jacobs at this point?

For sure. For sure. But for Pickens, DFS, yes, this type of.

Houston Texans. Where do we want to start here? Um, positively or negatively?

I would like to hear your positive notes. What what what do you have for me?

My only positive note is about Woody Marks. Okay.

Okay.

I I continue to like what I see from Woody Marks, even if he only touched the ball, you know, seven times in week three, but that was up from like two in week one to three or four in week two. Now he's about getting seven here.

Uh, look, it's not like Nick Chubb has done a bad job so far this year. I was happily drafting him as just a pure volume sponge and that's it. But again, this is one of those players that I think as we go along the season, Woody Marks could get more and more work.

Yeah, I think Nick Chubb's totally replaceable, and we'll see with Woody Marks. My question at that point would be like, what are we supposed to even do with that information because the Texans look so bad up front? Um, like right now, even their running back usage, and they want to be balanced, they're 30th in expected fantasy points because like they just don't have the ball enough. They keep punting it, and it's just not looking good. So they, I will say, one little complaint already for the new offensive coordinator is you have a rookie left tackle, second rounder, boom bust prospect, like wasn't my favorite prospect. You give him a chance out there. You can't just leave him on islands, you know, like he's just always always left in islands, and that's not going to help your quarterback feel comfortable at all. Um, so yeah, my my my major note is Nico Collins was a top 10 wide receiver last year with an equally as putrid offensive line, and he's so dang good that like I think the buy window's already closed because he had a good game here. But like it's the same issues, and Nico Collins balls out still.

Yeah, our buddy Reeves posted this. The Texans through three weeks, 12.7 offensive points per game. That's 32nd. They're 31st in scoring rate per drive. They're 30th in touchdown rate per drive. Their 32nd in third down conversion rate, their 32nd in third and short conversion rate, and they have zero red zone touchdowns at this point, which is obviously 32nd across the league. I can add on top of this, they are one of three teams to not run a play with a lead in the second half. The Saints and the Titans are the only other two. Um, and yeah, C.J. Stroud has thrown for over 250 yards in just three of his last 17 games on top of this. So, it's like, uh, we have stacked 17 games of this basically, and it's not been good. And that's with two play callers right now.

Yeah, I didn't think Christian Kirk looked very good on his reps, and the rookies aren't doing much at all, and Dalton Schultz is like a full-time player now. So, I think there's like also some reps where nobody's getting open down the field. So, like that's also complicated matters too. So, I think they miss T.D. like you said. I think they miss Stefon Diggs as well. And Nico Collins is going to carry this team as much as he can. But C.J. Stroud, he has to be the eighth best quarterback in the league for this team to make the playoffs. And right now, he's operating as the the 20th best. Las Vegas Raiders. Let's talk about Zamir White. He is running back 33 at this point. He is the only back with negative yards before contact per attempt with 25 plus carries in the league right now. Uh, you know, yards per contact on average is not solely an offensive line stat, but then when you pair it with tape, when you pair it with film, when you pair it with watching the games, it gives a pretty good picture of when it is and when it isn't. It's very clear with the Las Vegas Raiders that this is an offensive line issue. In fact, this past game, he was given like two runs, legitimately two runs to the second and third level, and he looked super explosive. Ran through a safety, you know, forced him into the dirt. If this was the 22nd offensive line in the league versus the 32nd, I'm not even saying good, I'm saying below average 22nd.

The stats would look wildly different. The other part of this though is can the 32nd offensive line improve as the season goes along? And I don't have the answer unless the answer is just no.

Yeah, Jackson Powers-Johnson. It kind of like they get him back, and then is he going to play center and guard? The right guard's been a total problem here.

Left guard has been terrible.

Yeah, and like the right tackle was somebody I thought they.

Miller in this game was like tackling Zamir White in the backfield. The guy that they just restructured his contract to give him more money. 74 and Zamir White were back to back on way too many runs as soon as White got the football.

And on top of that for Zamir White, he's no longer involved in the pass game. And so in the last two games when he has not had the pass game, he's had 10.2 expected fantasy points. He's now RB22 in usage, and he's performing underneath that for all the reasons we're talking about. I don't know how this one gets fixed, you know. And I'll say like, if I want to really nitpick the Zamir White stuff, I do think that other backs drafted this high have more burst in the first five yards to kind of create like your Bijans and Gibbs and all that stuff. And he he runs with a lot more power than those guys. But it's hard to like get to that like power part if you're just getting hit behind the line of scrimmage. So it's been a total mess. And then also like throw out Brock Bowers, like early in the first quarter, like they had a designed play like kind of going to the end zone to him. Just did not look like he's moving very well right now. Obviously, he kind of saved his day in complete garbage time. Um, but yeah, they they have a lot of issues, and most of them are offensive line related.

White is fifth in the league in terms of forcing missed tackles. It's exactly what we talked about last week, that he has to make the right read, then break contact, and then break contact again, and then do that relentlessly. He's just not, to me, given a platform at this moment. Now, this could have easily, not easily, but this could have been a talking point prior to the season because again, you're drafting him ahead. Yeah, it was.

Ahead of Derrick Henry, ahead of all this stuff. I don't think losing the passing down work would have been as big of a deal if this team had the 22nd best offensive line, but since they are dead last with my eyes, then he should at least be getting the passing down work, and he's not. So, like, there is no outlet for easy production at this point.

Um, Jakobi Meyers, wide receiver 25 and wide receiver 20 usage. Nothing's changed there. I think Brock Bowers is a good buy low as like he's going to look healthier in the next couple weeks. Um, but the one guy I just did want to quickly mention, Trey Tucker. This is a young, young player who is extremely fast, who has not had the quarterback that would throw the ball downfield. We now have that. So, I just like want he's not a must-buy by any means. I would go to bat for him on the waiver wire and throw him in there. He's a full-time player, 20% targets. He was sitting down in zone coverage, and then Geno Smith is hitting him on some big post routes down the field, too. So, like, is this going to be sustainable? Obviously not. But, I do think that like nobody talks about him, but he is like a third-year guy with lots of wheels with an improved quarterback that's going to get him the ball down the field, like and he's out there for full-time snaps. So, I think he deserves like a legitimate mention. If we're going to talk about Elijah Moore, I think we can talk about Trey Tucker.

He should have been getting the Dante Thornton buzz this this entire time, you know? Uh, I mean, Trey Tucker is the wide receiver four on the season. 12.4, then 3.4, which you're going to get 3.4 with sometimes with these types of profiles, and then yeah, 36.9 because you score three touchdowns.

Yeah, he's wide receiver 24 on averages. So even it's been crazy, but like I think that he's better than some of the guys at the end of your bench right now. Los Angeles Rams. Overall, top-down view of the Rams team. This is, I think, an awesome unit who can make a run for the Super Bowl if the critical pieces stay healthy. Those critical pieces being Matthew Stafford, Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp, and obviously the defense. Um, I will add, and I brought this up, the trend of Puka Nacua being awesome, but not awesome once they cross the 20-yard line has continued. Cooper Kupp right now has eight red zone targets. Now he's only scored one touchdown off of them. Puka Nacua once again only has one red zone target. It really is like staggering that now we're three years into his NFL career, he's a magician, a colossus out there, and yet he just like in these short fields has just not been a focal point or a target of this team. But on like third and four, he is like the guy to get those short yardage yards.

And the other part of this is obviously he he's the wide receiver one overall.

And he's doing that without getting the most valuable targets in football. So like, just imagine what would happen if he does.

Yeah.

Like he would break this league.

He's on pace for 164 receptions this year. In the first game, he wasn't even out there for the entire game. Like he is bonkers right now. Um, this team's passing the ball at the fifth or sixth highest rate in the league in neutral situations. They're very good at it, on top of it. Both guys can eat. They're third in in wide receiver usage collectively. Cooper Kupp is wide receiver one in expected points, and then Puka Nacua is wide receiver one in real life points. So I mean, let's ride this, and let's pray that Matthew Stafford's back continues to hold up. So at any point this can all change. But.

He's taken big hits and he's been, you know, getting back up and all that type of stuff. They, you know, missed some offensive linemen for a few snaps here or there. And again, he's he's standing versus the face of pressure and throwing it down the field. Let's talk about this running back stuff because again, we spent a good chunk of time discussing the touchdown run that Blake Corum had last week. That was a game that they were up and won by over 10 points. And so maybe the game script allowed Sean McVay to do that. This one was tighter, and as you can see in the second half when it remained tight, Kyren Williams, not gonna say owned the backfield, but Blake Corum saw his opportunities drop quite a bit.

Yeah, it wasn't quite 67-33% but it was lower than it typically is for Kyren Williams, even if it is 70% for Kyren Williams. If the offense is going to be top five in all the offensive numbers, that's more than enough, you know. So, it just if this thing.

At the same time, like Blake Corum looks good, too. He looks good. I I think that Kyren looks a little step faster, too, with this rotation. So, I think it's it's a healthy commitment that Sean McVey's created. I think that this this is what these charts are going to look like. And um, if they're going to be top five in projected points, even if it's no longer 90%, then he can still be the RB10, RB14 in rankings, depending on the matchup. And this was like not an easy matchup, and he balled out.

Right? This is the most obvious statement of all time, but let's say the Rams go into the game favored by eight points. Okay.

And we get into the by-weeks or the injury fill-ins as well. I would be more likely to fill in someone like Blake Corum in those games versus the other ones, just because again, when a game is comfortable for Sean McVey, he is probably comfortable having Kyren Williams standing next to him on the sideline a bit more often.

He is like only rostered like on 25% of Yahoo leagues. That should be I think literally 100%. There's only maybe I don't even know who else I would be ranking ahead for like pure handcuff ceilings like Charbonnet, Brian Robinson, him, Tyler Allgeier. Like there's only a couple guys that belong in that category, and like all those guys should be added to every single league. He's extremely valuable.

Miami Dolphins are next. I have zero notes on the Miami Dolphins this week. We talked about them a good amount on Sunday Night Football. I mean, De'Von Achane is getting that amazing work in the receiving game. I mean, 102 receptions he's on pace for is.

102. 102. Yeah. Um, so Ollie Gordon, you can you can have fun with your gold line touchdown on occasion. Uh, if you're going to catch 102 passes for De'Von Achane, that's going to be it's going to work out. So, yeah, went back and watched this one on the all 22, and it's exactly what I was seeing on the Amazon Prime. It's Tua is just like not throwing the ball to Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle in that 15 to 20 yard range, and like it's hard to, you know, live if that's what it's going to be. So like the swing passes are cool to De'Von Achane, but like that's great for fantasy, but it's like not a way to like get to the NFL playoffs. And the defensive line for the Miami Dolphins. Like.

That was supposed to like save it all, and like they're.

Yeah, I mean, there were multiple times we we came on the show and said Anthony Weaver is, you know, overperforming based on all the injuries that they had last year and then defensive back injuries and then even linebackers being super questionable. And then again, it's one of those things that defenses constantly are not sticky year-over-year, and their overperformance um like Chop Robinson hasn't made as many plays as he did last season when he was an absolute menace. If you have Tyreek Hill or Jaylen Waddle, you are rooting for the Dolphins to go 0 and 2 these next two games because I think at that point there would be no reason to have Tyreek Hill on this roster. And I think a trade for Tyreek Hill would be good for him, and obviously getting him out of there would help Jaylen Waddle. So I think largely this it's the same kind of growing pains that we had last season with with Tua healthy, where it's it's all right, but they're not like absolute must-start high-ceiling plays either.

Minnesota Vikings. I love it when a plan comes together. You know, we often talk about running back handcuffs and backups across the league. Sometimes when they are forecasted to be legitimate handcuffs, they get their opportunity, and you know, a head coach, a play caller brings in someone off the street, a Leonard Fournette, for example, and he gets a majority of the work, and then this guy that you've had stashed on your bench just comes to nothing. That is not the case with Jordan Mason, who wasn't a true handcuff, but he went from being a 50-50 split and looking really good when given the opportunities to owning absolutely everything and becoming a must-start in fantasy football for as long as Aaron Jones is out, and maybe even beyond that.

I think he's just a better fit for the Vikings offense even when Aaron Jones comes back. Like, they don't need more pass game weapons. Like, how many more freaking pass game weapons do you need? Like, they need somebody.

They traded for Adam Thielen. I think he has two catches for 22 yards.

Yeah, exactly. They need somebody that's going to run right down the middle at a very fast pace with his head down and running over people. And that's what Jordan Mason has done. Like all the interior offensive line stuff, they got rid of Sam Darnold and saved the $30 million or $40 million to have this offensive line. Let's use them. And that's what Jordan Mason's doing. So, he's he's going to be a top 10 fantasy running back until Aaron Jones is out. I would I would buy high on him and I would sell my Aaron Jones stock because I don't see the point of having Aaron Jones out there for for too many snaps when he does return, and even when he does return, there's setback risk with him at his stage. So it the offense is at its best when it's this version when the quarterback play is not very good. Balance, throw the ball to Justin Jefferson. Balance, Jefferson. Balance, Jefferson. And that's the formula. And with that formula with Kevin O'Connell and Brian Flores, I think that's enough to sneak into the playoffs if if they can get enough quarterback play. And um, we'll see how much longer they're going to go with Carson Wentz.

Hayden, I knew this team was overseas, but it didn't connect with me that in week 4, we have a 9:30 AM Eastern game.

Dublin. This is the most Dublin ass team there is. Carson Wentz, Redhead, O'Connell, you know, like it's they're gonna they're gonna love this team over there. Um.

Where's James O'Shaughnessy? Is he is he somewhere to be found? Um.

Man, we have a 9:30 game this Sunday. That ruins our show. Um, okay. Anyways, that's the Steelers. They have, and then we know they stay over, and then they face. So, like they can be three and one if they beat the Steelers team, and that's an interesting because we talk about how sometimes like game script does not happen when a game is just totally out of whack. That's what we got here against the Bengals. Like, we still don't know what this passing offense really looks like with Carson Wentz. They just didn't need to utilize it at all. Yep.

So then the Steelers, hopefully we get our answer because then after that, Hayden, it's the Browns, by week, then Eagles, Chargers, and Lions. So four defenses in a row that could give either Carson Wentz or J.J. McCarthy a massive issue in this passing game.

If Carson Wentz, who played, I think, good football, did not make like many turnover-worthy plays, and like played within the offense, played like he did over the next couple weeks, I think they will just continue with Carson Wentz. Did you listen? Kind of left the door open a little bit.

Yeah. How could you not just like take away the draft capital? This team is trying to win the Super Bowl this year. Like they have so much talent. They're going to evaluate the two quarterbacks they have and play the best one. You cannot look Justin Jefferson, Brian Flores, their defensive line, all the interior offensive linemen that they brought in and say, "Yeah, this is a developmental year. This team's trying to win the damn Super Bowl. The best quarterback's going to play after the by-week." And right now, I think it's going to be Carson Wentz.

Yeah, you don't bring in Ryan Kelly, Javon Hargrave, uh, John Allen, you know. Yeah. These types of, and especially the older pieces that are kind of on like one to two-year deals unless you're trying to win right now. That is not a developmental organization on top of it. So yeah, again, it's a big.

test for both and like maybe they each play a game at some point and they flip-flop or we'll see. It's uh that's a difficult thing to do with someone like JJ McCarthy who went through a lot last year, you know, like looked good in that one preseason game, then has that season ending injury and supposed to be in a competition with Sam Darnold, misses the entire year.

Uh naturally, you probably go into a bit of a dark place because of all that stuff. Then you have that first game where you play like absolute ass for three quarters. you win, you're on a high, you get amped up, and the second one rolls around and you lose, you get stomped 22 to six by a Falcons offense, and then now you're injured on the sideline once again. So, again, I know JJ's supposed to have like mental fortitude and all this type of stuff. It's just you can't put yourself in someone else's shoes. That's just a uh huge swings to go through over the last two years after being a top 15 pick in the NFL draft and being so successful at Michigan.

>> Yep. And then on the Carson Wentz note, he's gone through this exact timeline. And Kevin Oonnell loves these guys that have just like played a bunch of football. You know why? Cuz he's a damn good play caller and he knows how to play to their strengths and hide their weaknesses. And like this healthier version of Carson Wentz, who Kevin Okonnell noted, by the way, I thought this was pretty notable. he's only 32 and a lot of other quarterbacks have played for a lot longer. I was like, "Oh, that was kind of an interesting quote that like he's buying into this Carson Wentz resurgence." Uh, I think that he's just gonna keep Carson Wentz around as long as he stays in this level, which is just like don't be the 30th best quarterback in the league. And I think there's enough weapons and the offensive line's so much better than what Darnold was doing with that. I do think that he can look like a competent quarterback in this environment. I think the Darnold move was like somewhat predetermined to let him go just to move those resources around. The one that they really wanted to happen was to bring back Daniel Jones. Um, and they couldn't because obviously he was basically given this starting gig and that has turned out great here with the Colts. So even going from the Darnold stuff to let's not forget the Daniel Jones thing to now the Carson Went stuff. Again, this is becoming a trend here for the Minnesota Vikings.

Next is the New England Patriots. The only trend that I see for this team is uh many drafts had Stefon Diggs being like a locked in every down wide receiver for this team. Hayden, he's actually dropping in snaps as the season goes along. He was down to 55% routes here in week three. Um the most notable conversation is about the running backs where Raandre looked great in week two and comes in has two fumbles in this game. Then Antonio Gibson has a fumble in this game. And after that happened, the guy in week two that lost the coach's trust then goes over and earns all of it back immediately. And Trevon Henderson, but the game is like kind of out of whack that he doesn't get that much like real solid upside opportunity.

I felt >> Yeah, I think it's it's going to be somewhat of a committee most likely, but this is like the time to buy into Trayvon Henderson just in case like he becomes the feature back. Uh, the offense is like still just mediocre. Like every stat says it, the eye test says it. Drake May is improving. He's still making like really bad decisions on time at times. He's still missing some throws. And this offense is so running back and tight end focused, which is like fun. Like Hunter Henry has a massive game. We're going to have some spike weeks from Trayvon. We've already seen it from Raandre. But at some point, you need like a wide receiver to win. And I was just like looking at the Drake May uh passing chart and it is embarrassing. They have not completed or not even attempted a pass more than 30 yards down the field this year. You can't play winning football like that. Like it's only so fun to have Hunter Henry sit in zone coverage and then a couple like swing passes to the running backs. Like that is such a capped offense. So I think yeah, Steph D Steph Diggs needs to get on that boat, get a little bump and get running down the field or put Kyle Williams in there or something. because like you can't >> we need we need Kyle Williams to play a little bit like Mike Frael get over your like we're not playing rookie stuff. Kyle Williams can help you. Uh to outline that they've actually faced base defenses 50% of the time.

>> One because they have no wide receivers that can make plays, but two it's all the running back, fullback, tight end stuff that they're utilizing is just allowing defenses to sit in this 30 yard area, 20 yard area, 15 yard area and you know that's so much easier to cover versus other ones. Um, they do get the Panthers defense this week and Trevon Henderson. I'm excited. Like, please have that second half usage carry over into this week and I think good things can happen and this could be the start of the rest of the season. But then who knows like what Josh McDaniels and Mike Rayel think like they obviously punish guys midame for making mistakes which statistically for fumbles that can kind of be hit or miss.

>> Yeah. But at the same time, does that thing then carry over into the very next game? Who knows?

>> Who knows? Yeah, I hope Reese comes through for us here. I mean, they got a lot of great beat reporters over there, so hopefully they have a good read on the situation. But yeah, also like Gibson and Raandre have had like fumble issues forever, so like this is like not all that surprising. Um, we do have to quickly mention Hunter Henry went absolutely freaking nuts last week. It was the most usage by any tight end um in a game this season. He's now the tight end one on tight end two usage overall. So if you're not going to get any wide receivers to step up, then the ball has got to go somewhere. You can only throw Tv on so many passes in the flats. Like right now Hunter Henry is trusted, especially in the red area. So I've heard of worse fantasy tight end ones right now.

>> The first fantasy football team that Drake May ever drafted, Hunter Henry was on it. That is a fact.

>> I'm guessing it's a dynasty league and he's still getting the ball. New Orleans Saints are next. I mean, Chris Ave, you're after my heart. Uh, our buddy Jared Smalla posted this. You know, rest of season projections are hilarious after three weeks, but we're definitely going to do it here for Mr. Olive. He's on pace for 210 targets, 131 catches, 935 yards, and zero touchdowns.

>> I was thinking about this, a PPR scam. I like it when I predict it and I hate it when I wasn't in on it. And I'm in on this scam as you were and it's coming to fruition. All 10 of his receptions under 10 air yards. It's like you had a couple screens but all of them like sitting in zone coverage. A bunch of quick outs like quick out quickout quick out quickout.

>> Um >> yeah, I mean what's going to change? This is the only way.

>> It's happening for all of them. Like >> Shahed is being targeted basically in the same area of the field but just less often. And then Jawan Johnson being targeting the exact same area of the field and he's a tight end.

>> Yeah, there was a third and two to Jawan where he was isolated at the top of the screen and just ran a slant against a corner just like cross his face and first down. Like

>> the Jawan stuff is like it looks good on film too. So this is the scam and it's I'm buying.

>> Let's keep repeating that. If this team starts scoring touchdowns, sure maybe we get a touchdown here or there. But you are talking full PPR Olive wide receiver three stuff. pretty easily. Yeah, I feel like

>> Oh, yeah. Yeah.

>> Yeah.

>> And then we get into, you know, half PPPR standard stuff. It can be flex conversations. We get into by weeks. This is just he's getting volume in a weekly basis. We talk about volatile players all the time and they'll give you the spiked weeks. This is just, hey, let's plug in the 9.5 fantasy points and move on.

>> Yeah. The fastest pace offense in the NFL, like snaps in between plays, uh, it's them. And which is what they said this entire offseason. Like that was like the whole goal. like we're we're built to be the scam and we will be the scam.

>> I don't think Rattler is is playing poor enough to get the Tyler Shuck stuff in there either,

>> right? And he's playing good enough where they're going to be in garbage time because he's not good enough to like win games, but in garbage time he's good enough to move like doing that goalie goalie lock zone that you talk about.

>> So >> yes, and I know Shuck like finished this past game, but that's because it was so out of whack against the Seahawks. Like that one was

>> Yeah.

>> And that was punt returns. That was all that type stuff.

>> Yeah, it was block.

>> Okay. Moving on with the New York Jets. Uh Tyrod Taylor stepped in. To be honest, Hayden, this was like the one game I did not get to have eyes on. Is there anything you want to bring up? My My concern is for the running backs after week one when Bree Hall looked great and we had like actual running back points. He's still owning the backfield and yet we aren't really getting running back points. And that's despite like the offensive line playing pretty good still. you're at the mercy of being New York Jet. like that's sums it up. So it's the same Jet problems that you're talking about. I think Arman Membu looks good, but then all of a sudden like your move uh Elijah Vera Tucker and the interior offensive line is like had some flashes but also been set back as well. I think Tyrod Taylor's better for the offense and collectively for like everybody here, but um we'll see if they go back to Justin Fields right away. I'm guessing they will, but um Aaron Glenn didn't like necessarily say like that's for sure going to happen, which I thought was kind of notable.

>> Stuff on the sidelines. Yeah, those are some serious moves. I like that a lot.

>> That was serious moves.

>> Uh, but Garrett Wilson, season high 16.5 expected half PPR points in the game without Justin Fields. Like to me, for him specifically, without question, Tyrod Taylor is better for him. 100%.

>> Um,

>> the offensive coordinator and the play caller trusts Tyrod Taylor to drop back more often than Justin Fields who averages about 22 pass attempts per game as a quarterback.

>> For sure. For sure. So yeah, there's nobody nobody else is really stepping up, just those two guys.

>> And move on to the Philadelphia Eagles. Uh right now, Devonte Smith and AJ Brown are tied as wide receiver 39 in points. We know the second half they finally started throwing the football 10 plus yards on the field. We got vintage bully ball from AJB. We got an awesome oute touchdown to Devonte Smith. So, if those are hopefully fixed moving forward because they can still play football. The other conversation here is last season with this great run blocking unit, Saquin Barkley was insane in terms of 30, 40, 50, 60 yard runs. We outlined it constantly. He had like 18 of those last year. It was crazy. This year through three games, his longest run is I believe of just 16 yards. So that is going to change to not make him, you know, the running back one overall this season if that happens.

>> Yeah, he obviously needs them and there's a bunch of elite running backs right now. Um I will note like Dickerson's been like in and out of the lineup and like playing through injuries. That's obviously a big deal. Same thing with

>> Beckton.

>> Yeah, no Mai Beckton. So they're figuring it out. I I trust that they will get this thing figured out. And also historically there's been a dip in efficiency um coming off of the amount of touches that Saquon Barkley has and 14 right now. Yeah, I think like if somebody was panicking, which I you would have to be insane to be panicking over this, um I would be buying him. He's going to be a top five running back this year in fantasy. U but like Christian McAffrey, Jonathan Taylor, Bejan Robinson, I feel better about those guys right now.

>> Um >> yeah, Jir Gibbs, too. So he's in that tier, but he's not like the clear-cut 102 in drafts like he was um this offseason. I think little wrinkle in the offensive line performance, a little downgrade in in the play calling, and then a little downgrade in the efficiency coming off of those touches kind of explains where we're at. And then also a difficult schedule to to open up here.

>> Anything you want to say about the passing game? I know I've said everything I want to about it.

>> Yeah. Uh go ball rate for AJ Brown was at 19% the first two weeks and then shot up to 33% this last game. Um, that was pretty predictable and it's let's keep that at 33% and maybe even make that 50%. You know, let's just see what happens.

>> Fun players, let them do fun things. You know,

>> AJ Brown kept saying that like throw me the ball down the field. It works.

>> All right, Pittsburgh Steelers. Um, so Jaylen Morren, while Arthur Smith has never used him in this way, is clearly this team's running back one, and it's also close to the goal line. Jaylen Warren actually is tied for the second most running back carries inside the 5yard line this year. Now, he hasn't scored on one yet, but uh that is notable that he's at least being utilized in that area versus in previous years that was Naji Harris or Cordell Patterson or whoever entered your other running back.

>> Yeah, Caleb didn't play at all this last week. Um Jaylen Warren got the goal line touches on on the first drive. Kenny Gainwell mixed in there as well, but like you said, he's the RB8 usage through the first three weeks. We have never had that with Jaylen Warren and his usage has gone up like at a top seven rate like year-over-year like who's being increase their expected fantasy points. He's on that list. So, yeah, we're it seems like we're a long way away from Caleb Johnson, you know, getting on the football field and then once he gets on the football field, he has to play so well where Jaylen Warren um is going to have to come off of it. So, also, what have you thought about the the Steelers offense in general, though?

>> Glad you asked. Uh, this is more of like a full 2025 NFL outlook at this point. But for the entirety of last season, only four teams used 12 personnel on over 33% of their offensive snaps. That was the Raiders, the Lions, the Patriots, and the Chiefs. Through three weeks this season, that number has jumped to 10 teams. So we jump from four to 10. That's the Steelers who are number one at 48%. Then the Browns, the Bears, the Falcons, the Packers, the Cardinals, the Ravens, the Patriots, the Bengals, and the Chiefs again. So yeah, right now we're getting 48% 12 personnel here on the Steelers offense. And uh yeah, I mean, it hasn't been an eyesore to watch at all. and we get like flicks of the wrist and stuff from Aaron Rogers. I just don't know. And maybe this is what they want it to be. It's just not gonna be like one of the most fun watches every single week.

>> Yeah, that's where I'm at with this. This is like they're holding the line, but man, does this feel flimsy, you know? Like

>> it's not going to be the first team you turn on on Monday mornings. Let's put it that way.

>> No. And it's not going to be the the 15th team either. It's it's I don't think it's very fun to watch. Uh, looking at this, Aaron Rogers, his average depth of target over the last like four seasons has gotten lower and lower and lower and they're right now they haven't even attempted a pass 35 airs down the field right now. And uh, right now a lot of their passes are actually behind the line of scrimmage. John Smith, Jaylen Warren, all these type of guys too. So for the DK Mechaf stuff, I think this is like the hard part is like if we're going to get all these design stuff, we're going to be slow pace. We're going to get the running backs involved. We have a million tight ends to get the ball to.

>> He's Chris. Are you telling me DK Metaf is now Chris?

>> He kind of is. Uh, but that's also not a good thing because we need him to like win down the field. So, he's like

>> been solid, but he's averaging 3.4 fewer expected points than he did back in 2026 in that crazy grub offense. Uh, just totally different usage for him. And then also quickly shout out Calvin Austin. Like they said he was going to be a featured part of this offense and like to some degree he actually is. So, he's more the versatile full-time player versus Metaf just like isolated as an ex receiver.

>> Yeah, Metaf is right next to Jacobe Myers right now in terms of fantasy points for the season. And that's kind of like where they're at with how they're being utilized this year a little bit. Um, yeah, he's 10.3, 9.5, and 10.7 fantasy points over the last three weeks.

>> It's not a good defense. I'm just going to shout that out like this is, you know, the shower curtains. Like I said, no steel curtain.

Okay, final three teams. San Francisco 49ers are next. Hayden, I keep getting questions every single week when I post all the targets that go to Ricky Pierall. Someone in my mention says, "Well, that's not going to happen the rest of the season. Should we be worried about his longevity?" All this type of stuff. That is crazy to me. I I know I'm biased towards Ricky Pierol. I really liked him. He was one of my priority picks in drafts this year. But we're talking about the guy who is third in the NFL in receiving yards at this moment. And it's like people are already predicting that he is going to just wither away once maybe Jawan Jennings comes back when Brenau off off a massive injury, you know, George KD off of another injury. Again, I I know it's our job to get ahead of things, but I think Ricky Parasol's really good being utilized in the exact way we want him to in terms of these inbreakers, outbreakers dominating the middle of the field, and he's just an important cog in an offense and a schedule that we really want to attack.

>> Yeah, I I'll probably middle ground this one where I think that Ricky Pieraw is still going to be a top 40 wide receiver. uh everyone when everyone everyone comes back I I think he's going to be a playable guy and it's just going to be more volatile like this is it's the same emmo like we've talked about with Debo and everybody else when everyone's healthy there's going to be some guys that just like have dud weeks and Ricky Pierce all will be part of that but I think that he's going to be like a fantasy starter for the rest of the seasons like not even Canon these first three games like I think he's too good at his job to kind of be ranked outside like the startable list so I think some people are like fully panicking I don't agree with that I also don't think that he's going to keep up what he's been doing. Like you already see the splits like last week in his usage versus the other weeks with without the other guys, but he he's a he's a a totally fine player in a very good offense. So like I like what I'm seeing.

>> Okay. Anything you want to say about the running game? I mean CMC while you look at the underlying metrics, maybe he's not making people miss

>> or, you know, creating explosive plays. Uh he also touches the football 37 times every week. Have you seen a healthier calf in your entire life than Christian McCaffy right now? Yeah, I mean he's a complete outlier.

>> It really is that simple. Uh hopefully George KD comes back and like hits the ground running once again if if that's the case.

>> I think Jawan Jawan and Brock Party probably going to come back this week and then George KD I think it's another week or two after that. I think Aayuk will be about in that same category. So I think we're going to get like back to like the full go 49ers by Halloween.

>> Um,

>> and then the small air to this is Demarcus Robinson comes off a suspension who they not going to make a priority in for free agency, but he was added to this wide receiver group.

>> Yeah, for sure. He'll get all the red zone targets. That's how it goes with him.

>> I mean, D Rob in the red zone. Tennessee Titans. So, we've already had one coaching change this season and maybe another one's on the way if this is foreshadowing at all

>> for this organization. So Brian Callahan, who did not call plays for the Cincinnati Bengals, was hired by this team a year and three games ago to call plays and design an offense for the Titans and then three games into his second season is handing over play calling duties to uh someone named Bo Hardigree. Your thoughts here, Hayden?

>> Agree with the change. First of all, I thought it was notable that Callahan, who seems like a nice guy and like definitely rooting for him. Uh he went up there and said, "I've loved my play calling." Which means somebody else in this organization does not like his play calling and they're probably the ones that are getting ready to fire him. So, I don't think there's enough talent on this football team to dig yourself out of the hole if you've already been relieved of your past game calling duties. So, yeah. And I think he also mentioned that he needs to be a better head coach and he's hired to be the head coach, which means, you know, handling challenges, handling timeouts, handling when to punt and go for it. And those have not been going well so far. So, I think that he's there's been a realization that he can't operate everything, but once you've admitted that you can't operate everything and you're dead last in every uh metric on offense, like it's not going to end well.

>> Yeah. This is desperation by someone in the organization. I'm looking up Bo Hardigree. Uh he's been an offensive assistant for the Jets, the Patriots, and then for the Raiders in 2023. He was the quarterback's coach and interim offensive coordinator, but I can't find at any point that he has called plays. So,

>> everywhere he's been one or two years, like just bouncing around the league. I did want to add that this team is tops in the NFL in 11 personnel usage at 86% yet they're 30th in motion and shift rates. I understand some of that is due to you know trailing in games constantly but you know it's kind of the same conversation of we're going to be same personnel grouping all the time and then we're not going to be creative at all pre- snap. And so it's kind of not pulling any of the fun interesting levers that the best offenses in the league do. Again, you're working from behind, so that that's definitely part of it. You have a rookie quarterback, that's part of it. Your offensive line is injured. That's part of it as well. And then, yeah, I mean,

>> because you're not a great situation at this point. I think Cam Ward's high variance nest like the pick six that we saw this past week and some of their misfires are just going to be even more accentuated verse if you were a good roster and a good organization.

>> Yep. just not a good football team right now. I I would sell Tony Pard if you can. It's like so obvious that like Tai Spears is coming back, but like there's not this team is so bad that there's not enough room where if Ty Spears is out there for 25 30 45% of the snaps, like Tony Pard will like not be startable. So, I would sell Tony Pard. Uh and then with Calvin Ridley, man, like got to catch the football. He's the wide receiver, 36 in usage, um which is like even lower than what I thought it was, but on top of that, he's not catching it. So, I I don't know what to say about that. He's clearly not like a stud anymore, but right,

>> he's better than this.

>> Yeah, he's playing bad football. Uh fingertip misses, and again, that's also compounded by being on a bad football team that when you make mistakes or the misses are there, then that's only accentuated more. I did want to ask and answer a question about Alec Aumanor because we get this topic every single week.

>> I told someone I was going to really focus in and watch him I did and I still don't have an Alec Aumanor take.

>> I think he's a pretty mediocre athlete that's not dependable, but he's out there for all like the entire game, you know, and also

>> 86% 11 personnel and three wide receiver sets. He's going to get a ton of run. They pass the football a ton because they're trailing a lot. And to me, like that is the source of the production

>> and you know that probably should be for Calvin Ridley, but it's not. And it is like Tyler Lockett for the second half of this game. We see Chico Quano sometimes, but Alec Amenor is

>> almost the most reliable one of these from quarter 1 to quarter four. But again, I wouldn't say the source of it is

>> uh necessarily his individual talent. It is being on this team and in the type of offense it is at this moment.

>> Agree. I also mentioned that Calvin Ridley does have a contract that you could trade and if you fire the head coach and he's not going to be part of the long-term solution to Tennessee, which he obviously won't be, he's another guy that eventually could get traded, which would be good for Elica Yumanor, Chiga Quano, maybe even the Chimiri DK guy. So, we'll see. I mean, at that point, the Titans would be like without Kevin Kalpa Ridley, who's like not going to play well, it would be the worst offense in the league. The the positive note I can say for Alec Aimanor is of the wide receiver trio out there, he does play with like the most power and strength.

>> Um, and we know Camour's going to like try tight window targets. You know, he believes in his arm

>> and like Calvin really that's not his game. Tyler Lockett, that's not his game. And so Alec is coming down with, you know, more of those, hey, I've got a corner in my hip pocket or in front of me and I'm making these catches.

>> And he didn't do that all the time at Stanford. So maybe that has improved, too. Yeah, kind of like Tim Patricky and like those that kind of genre of receiver.

>> Okay, let's close things out with the Washington Commanders. Uh, watching this game, I really enjoyed it from a running scheme standpoint. You can tell that Cliff just unleashed it with Marcus Mariota in the fold. They were doing like full house backfield stuff, multiple tight ends, fullback, like all these types of things. Even multiple running backs out there. Now, the multiple running back thing can be a bit of a headache because immediately Chris Rodriguez got work. We know Jeremy McNichols had a crazy run that he was if he was a quarterback it would have been in the grass but then he breaks it off and runs it for 60 yards. I will keep going back to Bill in that I think his running style is the most aesthetically pleasing of this group. Like he puts that dele leg out there and then cuts off of it and it's really fun and smooth to watch. And so I understand if they want to have just this rotation constantly because they did last year, but even if the production doesn't necessarily dictate it, I still think he's the best of this group pretty pretty easily.

>> Yeah, completely agree here. Um, so just only mentioning this because we have to. Chris Rodriguez got the start, got the f first full uh goal line opportunity. Jeremy McNichols played like half of the Austin Eckler role and then the other half of the Austin Eckler role like actually kind of went to Chris Rodriguez. I I'll say four now. Uh Bill is the best running back on this football team and he he will eventually get get it. All that said, the Commanders are 28th in running back usage collectively because they have Debo Samuel and dual threat quarterbacks and have explosive plays where they're not even at the red zone very often because they're ripping the ball down the field and creating explosives. So, I think there's a cap ceiling here, but I agree that whenever you watch Bill, it it does look like you're looking at a real really talented player.

>> And look, he's the running back 28 at this point, which is already a win versus where many people drafted him, especially early. And then to me, it's going to be an even bigger win as the season goes along with like maybe your Tony Pard's falling off versus what the usage what it was. And obviously, James Conor's ranked ahead and he's not going to play anymore and

>> so on and so forth. So, I'm I'm still in on Bill and I don't know if you can if he's a bo anymore if the meme has worn off from his name, but I I would definitely be attacking that uh within within reason. The other part of this conversation is Terry McLaren who is dealing with a quad injury. I don't want to keep bringing this up, but it is of the line of, you know, he missed all of training camp. These guys start slow and then boom, injury in in week three and uh it's after he, you know, got paid a little extra dough.

>> Yeah. I think like we have to like knock these guys that sign their contract last minute down like a a full tier like and also could these teams figure this out like what had like why couldn't they agree to this like on July 30th like

>> back toback all seasons where this is kind of a thing

>> you know um he's the wide receiver 53 in usage he missed a couple explosive plays and they weren't even his fault uh but those were caught last year and that's the reason why we talk about regression is he caught all of those last year and and this year he has not. Um, but the usage in general is 2.5 fewer expected points per game lower this year than last year. And I think the reason for that is Debo Sand.

>> Who fills in for Terry McLaren in this offense? I know that they just got Noah Brown back I think from injury. Luke McAffrey scored a long touchdown this past week. him

>> and then could it be my guy Jaylen Lane popping in here? But he's more of like the Debo Samuel manufacturer touch stuff like they they don't have a onetoone fit obviously for Terry McLaren based on their wide receiver investments here.

>> I don't got a good answer for you there. I think it's more Debo Samuel ask Jaden to run around if he's healthy enough to do that. Um more Bill I don't know.

>> All right, that does it. All 32 teams in the books. Hopefully at the end of every single one of these videos I get nervous we forgot a team and we have occasionally but not not today. Uh thank you all for tuning in. Really appreciate it. Tomorrow we have running back rankings here on the channel on Wednesday. Thursday the trade show is back. You can click the link in the description down below to get into the Discord. We've video questions we've gotten have been fantastic lately. I'm glad many of you are enjoying that episode. And then yeah, Friday and Saturday wide receiver and quarterback and tight end rankings. Then we do it all over again while the game is freaking on on 9:30 a.m. Eastern on Sunday morning. We'll be on at about 11 a.m. Eastern that day or maybe even later this time. Thank you all for tuning in. Shout out to Weaves and Motion behind the scenes. Hayden in front of the camera up the villa. We'll talk to you all soon.

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32 Teams. 32 Fantasy Football Facts to WIN Week 4

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