Transcription
All the big news we were expecting this week has arrived. Firstly, we had the Fed yesterday which confirmed the end of QT on December 1st, which is rather positive. This doesn't mean the start of QE, we'll talk about that. And now, at this very moment, a few minutes ago, there's been a major geopolitical development. Trump has just announced a one-year trade agreement between the United States and China on critical minerals and metals. In exchange, Washington is reducing some of the tariffs on P4. So, it's a deal that will be renegotiated each year. So, finally, we have more information. We're still missing, in terms of percentage, the tariffs that will be imposed. But the big news has more or less dropped. We'll talk about it today. We'll do a check-in on BTC and ETH. Just before we start, I remind you that our algo service is still available. The SPT algorithms have achieved +7.97R, which simply means they have generated almost 8 times more gains than the risk taken. 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This is where we'll share the best opportunities on altcoins from our perspective. So, to get to the news, this news is quite good. We see that the price is reacting quite directly. We'll do a technical analysis, of course, because there were indeed things that shouldn't have happened from a technical standpoint. And we also have Jerome Powell at the FOMC announcing the end of QT on December 1st. This means that, broadly speaking, the Fed will stop reducing its balance sheet. And I'll show you this right here. Like this. So, this doesn't mean QE, it doesn't mean we're going to re-inject liquidity, it just means we're going to stop withdrawing it. So, that's the definition of QT, and this is rather positive. We see that we've been in QT since April-March 2022 here. For all this time, the Fed has been reducing its balance sheet, and we see that we are more or less at the end of this QT. So, what we could expect is a gradual stabilization, and then if the economy needs it in the coming months, perhaps a return to QE. But that will take a little time. What's good is that it will stop restricting liquidity because many banks in the United States need liquidity. So, that's probably why Jerome Powell decided to end QT. But he also tells us that there might not be any rate cuts at the next FOMC. It's not certain yet. And this has cast some doubt on the market. Honestly, the market continues to be confident about a rate cut in December. There's a 70% probability. We'll have to see how it evolves. It's certainly a bit less than what we had before the FOMC. Here, we can see that before the FOMC, there were indeed probabilities that were a bit higher. So, wait, I need to look a bit without the comparison tool here. But we can see that currently rates are down around 400 basis points, well, 400 basis points, 4%. And we can see that here the market still expects a rate cut in December with a 70% probability. However, what's interesting to note is that in January, we've reduced the chances of a fourth rate cut. So, in fact, the Fed is telling us, we're going to stop QT but we're not going to be too aggressive in our rate cuts. And so, we'll have to see how the markets react. We see that the indices have reacted quite well for now. There have also been quite a few earnings reports, notably Google and Meta. Google had extraordinary results, but Meta had very poor results, well below expectations. So, Google, I think, made 100 billion if I'm not mistaken. And that's what allowed the stock price to explode. We're really accelerating. On the other hand, on Meta's side, it's a bit more complicated. Actually, it's okay. We'll have to see at the opening today, but it's okay. Well, from what I saw, I think on the pre-markets, it was really not great. But in terms of figures, here, regarding earnings, you see here, there are earnings that are not great. After, in terms of revenue, it's okay in itself, so it's not dramatic, but it's especially the earnings that are very bad. 84% surprise here, lower than expected figures. So, that's really not very, very good. Well, not good at all, even for investors. But anyway, the indices are holding up, and we still have this divergence between the US indices and Bitcoin, with the indices trying to go up while BTC is struggling a bit. Now, I'm cautious about the indices because I think we'll eventually come back to fill this gap. So, that could create selling pressure, but we'll focus on Bitcoin today, of course. So, that's good, I can delete this. There was a zone that absolutely had to be maintained, and that was this fair value gap zone. So, this marks our inversion. This also marks a bearish order block. And so, the question is to ask, "Okay, will the bullish order block that formed here on the daily allow BTC to form another higher low right here to try to attack north again?" For me, this is pretty much the last zone that can maintain Bitcoin in this small bullish dynamic. If we see Bitcoin break this last low, well, that will be more indicative of a retest of the low of the wick on October 10th, below $101,000. And perhaps, and I repeat, the key zone is $107,000 on the weekly chart. We are still on the weekly order block. You see that we are still maintaining it. If we were to transform this order block into a breaker block, it would confirm that we are indeed entering a bearish swing and that there will be targets to aim for, such as $98,000, but also, for example, the weekly fair value gap between $86,600 and $92,600. So, all of this becomes realistic objectives if the market forms a breaker block. That's why we are really, really at the last key levels. Here, on the daily order block, but also on the weekly order block. It will really be an extremely important zone to defend. For now, the agreement has dropped, and Bitcoin is bouncing back. Will this allow the price to reverse? Well, that's what we'll have to observe today, honestly. Now, we've filled all the fair value gaps. For me, it's now or never for the price to try to mark a higher low. You see here, there was a small fair value gap that we've filled, that we're also maintaining within the order block right here. As long as this order block is maintained, there are chances to try to put pressure north again. However, if the order block gives way, that would really confirm a bearish direction, and there would also be chances to form the breaker block on the weekly, and that would really not be positive. So, we are really, really at the last levels. This is where the price must react. All the news has dropped. End of QT. Agreement between the US and China. We still don't really know the percentage of tariffs. Perhaps I haven't seen the information, feel free to check for yourselves. I'll look right after. But in any case, I haven't seen it. But 90% of the news we were expecting, it's done, it's here. So now, the market has to show its hand. Is it a bearish swing or not? So, we are really at the last key levels. And here, on the ETH side, it's more or less the same, except that, well, there's this small divergence, we haven't recovered the stops, but similarly, we've lost the last daily fair value gap. So, now, we'll see how the market reacts. Will it manage to recover it? Will it become a resistance point? Normally, it's supposed to be the case, it's supposed to form a resistance here on Ethereum, but it remains a range, once again. And I'd say, potentially, it's good that the market didn't recover the stops to the north. Because if we recover the stops to the south first and then the market re-enters the range, we could ultimately have a breakout to the north. So, that's what we'll have to observe. For now, it remains a range, there's no point in speculating in all directions. We can even see a kind of contraction triangle here, nothing more, it's contracting. There's no resolution yet. The resolution of this contraction will be interesting to find the future direction of the market. And again, be careful with these kinds of contractions, as there can be traps. That is to say, if, for example, we break to the south, a re-entry would confirm a true bullish direction. If it breaks to the south and there's no re-entry, well, that confirms a bearish direction again. And for me, the real key level is still the 38.2% retracement from our bottom, because you know very well that if the first stop is broken, so the 38.2% retracement is the first stop. If we break the first stop, there's a very high probability of coming back to the reload zone. And then, this would also confirm that we are entering a bearish swing, and it would be in correlation with Bitcoin, which would have probably formed its weekly breaker block. That's why we are really at key levels across the entire market. The news has dropped. Now, we'll see a bit how the market will perform, but on the indices side, it's still holding up, but we see Bitcoin struggling a bit to follow the indices. Will it manage to correlate with them? Because at any moment, the indices could come to fill their gap here. And so, if they do that, it creates a bit of selling pressure on the indices, and since Bitcoin is already quite weak, well, that could bring it down a bit more. When I say a bit lower, it's potentially coming to test its low from last week, which is right here. So, a bit lower, around $107,400. Well, that's on the CME, so on the PERP market, it must be a bit different, but here, it was the low of last week which formed right here around $106,200 on the Perp market. That could be a target. When you look at the weekly chart, we see that we've recovered our stops above our last high. We have a re-entry. So, liquidity is potentially below the lows. Here, this could be a direction for the price, and that will be the direction if, once again, the last order block here gives way. I'll stop here for today. I hope you enjoyed it. If so, don't hesitate to smash the thumbs up, subscribe, leave a comment. Thank you very much to those who play along. I remind you of all the links in the description box, lots of free content for you. Don't hesitate. We'll meet again later for the macro review or tonight for another crypto video.