Transcription
Hello everyone. I hope you are doing well. Today, analysis of BTC. Even a few hours, 30 minutes before the decision on rates, 1 hour before Powell's speech. So, we're going to see BTC retracing a bit. We'll see the closing here, there might be some signs of weakening. We'll talk about some altcoins that were asked to be analyzed. There's Trump, there's uh I've noted them down, I'll look at them later, but here we go, we'll do three altcoins as usual to look at together.
So, I'll start here with BTC, especially the economic announcements. Well, we expect, as was predicted, a rate cut. That's what's priced in and that's what will happen at 7 PM. So in a few minutes, it will create volatility, that's for sure, but since the market has already priced it in, we won't have huge volatility as if there were a surprise. Now, for me, what will create volatility and what can create a big movement that's coming, is the next FOMC. So Jerome Powell will be speaking. That will be very important to watch depending on the questions he'll be asked, depending on what he'll say, whether he'll be reassuring or not, depending on everything he'll be able to say. Of course, the market can interpret it as it wishes and that will create volatility in any case. So, we'll have to be very wary of cryptocurrencies. Moreover, cryptocurrencies are weak, that's a fact. From the moment the S&P 500 continues to make ATH after ATH, breaking strongly, generally, there's a correlation between the S&P 500 and BTC. It's quite classic. Not a 100% correlation, of course. But straight like this. We'll put it like this. We can clearly see that there's a correlation. The bottom here is placed. The entire upward phase here is lateralizing on the S&P 500. BTC is also lateralizing. The drop here. Well, BTC is dropping. We can see the correlation. And well, here it's rather weak. That is to say, we have a recovery here with a new ATH. Well, it's not following on BTC. A bit similar to what we did at this level. That is, here we had a recovery, we have a small recovery, but we see that cryptos are dumping while the US market has continued to progress. So we are in a phase where cryptos are a bit weaker. For how long? Always difficult to say. What would be good is to have a rotation of liquidity towards cryptocurrencies. For the moment, in any case, BTC, we are still in this phase of lateralization. We've had rather positive signs, the fact of going back above $112,500 to $113,000. And now, if we start to re-enter this level, if we start to close daily below it, it wouldn't be great.
So, we could, at the limit, pull back on the neckline of this W structure. Potentially, I don't think this type of W structure will be reversed solely by a V-top rebound. There will be more chance of retesting the V-VOP to turn it into an M. That's a possibility. But, yeah, we'll really have to watch the daily closing and what Powell will say, it can clearly create a market direction for the end of the year. Okay. And still this phase of lateralization, these two boundaries for those who really want to do long-term, the only level to watch is this one, $107,000 and $90,000. If then you do a bit of short to medium term, well, it's these different polarity levels, this support level, this one that we are potentially flipping into resistance, those where we have been rejected, and depending on whether we move above or below, look for longs or shorts. We had come back here to look for the 1-hour tunnel, 4-hour tunnel. We didn't have a good buying reaction here, a small bullish engulfing, but we didn't manage to get back above. We can clearly see it above the 15-minute tunnel. We had a small moment, a small phase of compression between this 1-hour, 4-hour tunnel and the 15-minute tunnel with a resolution downwards. So yes, I said it yesterday and it's still the case when I think about it, we always had a higher probability of having a buying reaction here and even at this level of having a continuation. Now, does having a higher probability mean it's 100% the case? That's why we have risk management, because if the market could be predicted with 100% certainty, there would be no need for risk management, except that's impossible. Or clearly, that person is a liar. The person who promises they can predict 100% of what the market will do, it's impossible. Okay? There is always a phase of uncertainty. Anyway, trading, investing, it's constant uncertainty. And if you don't accept it, well, you can do something other than trading, investing, because it will be very difficult to sustain in the long term. So, that's it for BTC. As I said for the short term, we are going back below the moving averages, we are going back below the monthly pivot point and the weekly pivot point which acted as support. You see, we had discussed the weekly pivot point, it was, I don't know when, it's the central pivot point. Yes, exactly. We had discussed it, it was, it was Monday, I think, and we had seen that if we returned to it, it was a good zone to look for longs. And here, someone trading short to medium term on this type of reaction on the weekly pivot point, there can be setups that can be triggered, it depends where you want to enter with an invalidation below the weekly pivot point. We see that there was still a small rebound of 1%. On intraday, this kind of rebound can be taken. Of course, a weekly pivot point is not used for long-term investment. It's not possible. Now, we lose it, and the other points of interest we can have here, if I look at the pivot points, we have the monthly pivot point here at $108,911 which is support 1, and we have here the monthly pivot point at $108,164, and then there's nothing below. After these pivot points, you can add extensions, meaning that I put these pivot points, but if I want, I can put S2, R2, S3, R3, it's entirely possible.
So, I'll just hide some pivot points. Okay, already, if I only want the weekly pivot points, if I really want extensions and the market can place bottoms or tops on extensions, proof at this level, at this level, okay? When we break support 1 or resistance 1, well, then it's resistance 2, resistance 3, and so on. So, in weekly, the next ones are $103,000 and $94,500. We can look at the monthly ones. Okay. So, we have our main pivot point, support 1, resistance 1, and then we have here support 2, support 3, and here we have resistance 2, resistance 3. After that, if you want an indicator like this that allows you to have these different reference points or as I often say, these are levels where we can place tops or bottoms, it helps to locate your entries. Some people will prefer to draw trendlines, others can only use pivot points like this. It simply allows you to have good localization zones where the market can potentially react. Now, it's not the same, it's an indicator like any other. It won't predict 100%. It's not because we have a monthly pivot point that we absolutely have to place a top or a bottom on it. But often, as I said, it gives very good reference points. If you want to add this type of indicator, either you add this one, DWMYP, or you add an indicator that was coded by a member of the Discord. You put this one, Multiprem Vegas tunnel and pivot point. And there, you have the uh you have the pivot points, monthly, it's up to you to choose what you want in the settings, and then you can determine support 1, resistance 2, and so on. So, well, in any case, these are tools that I've been using for years now. Those who have been following me for a while, I don't change tools constantly, unlike some traders who one day will show you a miracle indicator, then another, and so on. I use the same ones because they work and because they are also tools that are adapted to my psychology.
So, that's it for BTC. We'll also look at it from an order flow perspective. Okay, I'll put it on H4. Still no FOMO here on the open interest. We see that there's no significant opening of positions, which is rather good. So, what potentially creates less liquidation to come and a movement that will perhaps be less significant than movements we've experienced previously, but well, open interest is ranging, price is ranging, what we'll need to watch is if we have a resolution, okay, upwards or downwards, to see how the market will behave. If we start to really break upwards and start a real trend that holds, it would be good to have an increase in open interest with support. Because you see, we broke on open interest, we didn't really have support. I remind you that open interest is for short and long positions on derivative contracts, perpetual contracts. So, we use leverage. When you open a short, your open interest increases. When you open a long, your open interest also increases. When you close a position, whether it's a liquidation, a stop loss, a manual or partial closure, etc., there is a decrease in open interest. So, when the price is rising, we want to see open interest rising because we want support. First, longs that support, that say "I'm going long, I'm entering a position, the price is supported." Okay, especially in rising open interest, we'll see longs, but we'll also see shorts. And some will say, "Yes, but we don't want shorts." Shorts in an uptrend create liquidations to the north. And liquidation to the north means people can get liquidated. A short that gets liquidated closes its position. And a short that closes its position is a buyback. Okay? So, yes, we would have a decrease in open interest if it closes its position, but we would have a price increase because that simply leads to a potential short squeeze. So, this is something you need to consider when you have a question like this to ask yourself. When the price is rising, you have to ask yourself: is it rising because of position closures and short liquidations? So, simply position buybacks. Or is it rising because there's real buyer support? The ideal is buyer support. We can have phases where it rises because of liquidations, but on the other hand, there needs to be buyer support. And well, we see that in this break, we had overall rather flat open interest, quite flat. Not much happened. So, well, that's something to follow, and of course, we can expect quite a bit of liquidation during the upcoming movement with Powell's speech.
And it's fighting its zone of $4,000. We have re-entered this level, which we technically needed to avoid re-entering. The fact of going back below. We are rejected at these resistance zones that we had drawn. We are structuring a small H4 MTP. We re-enter, we go back below the moving averages. So, here, the market is quite tricky. We can see it clearly, we break upwards, we send rather good signals, and we re-enter. The market is perhaps a bit scared with Powell's speech, but what's quite surprising is that US markets are rather bullish. So, we have a de-correlation. That's still quite rare. What needs to be watched is if we go back to the opposite extremity, it needs to hold. I remind you for long-term Ether, I don't want it to go below $3,800 to $3,700, otherwise we would clearly have a signal. For the moment, if I look at the closing, it's not great. We continue to make lower highs. It would be good to structure something, to reverse our dynamic and really re-enter the $4,250 level because we see the change in dynamic, we broke this zone that acted as support, we broke it, and now it acts as resistance. So, it's the same, we have pivot points. Well, monthly pivot points, we perfectly placed a top on it when we went back to look for it. And here, we placed a bottom. You see, again, these are very relevant levels. We can see it clearly. We place a top exactly on it. Here, we are leaning on it and we place a bottom. Here, we place a top, we go below this one, we place a top, we place another top here, a bottom. You see the relevance of these levels. And I've always preferred trading with monthly pivot points. You see, we wick on it, we wick on it, we place a bottom on it. I've always preferred trading with them for the simple reason that I don't need to draw anything. It's just math that draws these levels for me. Okay? It's an indicator, it's anchored, it's like that. I can't hesitate on the pivot point. It's not like a trendline where sometimes you can say, "Okay, do I draw it like this or like that?" This is rather relevant. And if we look at the weekly pivot points, okay, we switch to a slightly shorter term. So, we saw them, $4,017, $3,853. If it has to go lower, we have $4,3545 and here $3,077. Now, generally, extremities like these, we go there very rarely. You see, we have big dumps. Consider, during the October 10th crash, we just reached, well, just is already quite a bit, we reached support 2. It's quite rare to go and reach support 3 or resistance 3. You see, support 2 here, it acted as support. Resistance 3, it's quite rare. Here, we went to reach it, we placed a top not far away, but it's something that will happen from time to time. It's not every week that we'll go and reach these levels, but it allows us to have points of interest in case of a major dump, a crisis. It allows us to say, "Okay, very good, the market can potentially stop here." Well, that's it for these levels on Ether. I remain rather enthusiastic about cryptocurrencies, but very cautious, a bit more cautious than lately because we had rather good re-entries. But above all, I will really pay attention to what will be said at this level on the FOMC. We can discuss it further on Discord and I will discuss it in much more depth tomorrow.
Now, regarding altcoins, I was asked about Trump, of course, when crypto pumps, we generally talk about it a bit more. So, is it manipulated? What does it mean? Trump, well, it's quite crazy, the project when it was launched. It will be almost a year, I think, since it was launched. I remember buying it at $11 back then. And I don't know if I can get the whole Bitcoin chart. Sometimes they have the whole chart. No, I remember buying it at $11. No, I think it was that day. January 18th, it was a Saturday, I think. I bought some at $11 and sold around $35 to $37 because we had placed a small top. Yes, that's it. $11. I made a 3x on Trump. It went higher. But you see, there's the chance factor. I was woken up at the right time, it was quite early in the day. I saw that people were talking about it. I saw that everyone hadn't seen the announcement simply because people were sleeping. Okay? And that's why, generally, it completes a full cycle. You see listing. Well, it was listed before, I think, but Saturday at 1 AM, and by the time everyone sees the announcement, you can count on a rise of about 24 hours. So, there's a bit of the chance factor. There's the factor of being present, the risk management factor, psychology, and selling at the peak, because some people never sold and the market reversed. But these are cryptos like that, it happens once a year, twice a year. Sometimes there might be a little opportunity. Now, it's not a crypto that I would hold in my wallet long-term because, well, from a fundamental point of view, it's limited. Now, it's a crypto that can be very interesting to trade. Why? Because there's a community behind it. It's like Dogecoin, it's like Shiba, it's like Pepecoin. There's a community, and a tweet from Trump or something like that is enough for it to pump. So, there can be trades. However, I would have rather quick invalidations. When I look at the price action here, we have re-entered certain levels. This level, we are re-entering the next one. So, that's rather good. When I put moving averages here, well, we have moving averages that are oriented downwards in the long term, especially the daily tunnel, but we are going back above the 1-hour, above the 4-hour. That's rather good. Okay, we have structured a bottom here. We see this price action with higher lows and higher highs. So, we have encouraging signals. In weekly, it's too early to talk about a long-term bottom, but a re-entry is underway. So, nothing prevents this type of pattern from leading to a larger structure. As I say, it's a crypto that can do a 2x overnight. Yes, we did it at this level, +80%. Perhaps not a 2x because we are still talking about an altcoin that is well-capitalized. We are at 551, so yes, we are quite well-capitalized. Be careful with that. Be careful in the sense that, yes, it's an altcoin with a high market cap, but it's also an altcoin that can have a lot of volatility. However, it won't have the volatility of some shitcoins, I'd say, that can do a 3x, 4x, 5x in a day.
Next, I was asked about ETC. ETC is quite simple. We are in a phase of lateralization. We've been stuck between two levels for years. Now, since 2022, we see that we have our low extremity around $15. Okay, which acts as support. We have a high extremity which will be around this level. I've drawn the top of the range a bit higher, but overall, the big resistance zone is here. We're doing a bit of ping pong between the two. So, it's not a chart where we'll say we're going back to ATH, we're entering a trend, but there's still a range amplitude that can allow for performance. In any case, where we are, we are in a good zone to look for longs with an invalidation below the structure, so generally below our range. When you set a stop loss, that's what invalidates your trade. Let's say, we are in a clear dynamic, well, we will generally have a stop loss that invalidates our plan. That is, if we move into a bearish dynamic, it could be because we have an MTP, because we break a previous low, whatever, but that's what proves to us that there's an inversion of our trend. In a range, what invalidates our trade? Well, it's generally the break of this range downwards. And for me, a weekly close below $12 invalidates our trade clearly because we would have a confirmation. And a confirmation is not a wick, it's a close, a confirmation of exiting this range downwards. I can put a volume profile here to see approximately where we are at the value low. Logically, we need a re-entry. If we re-enter, it's a bullish signal. You can assume that when we re-enter a value low, the objective is to reach the opposite value area. So, here, the value high, which can give a bullish signal. If we start to settle above $18, we could push to reach the opposite extremity. However, always refine, you can refine your entries, see what happens. You see, we are moving below the 4-hour tunnel, the 1-hour tunnel which is starting to flatten, a small phase of lateralization. If we start to go above $17.40, approximately above this level, if we re-enter and break the 4-hour tunnel, it can be a rather bullish signal. You can thus proceed with a long-term analysis, refine it, go to daily 4-hour to look for an entry, avoid the opposite extremity. It can lead to more professional entries with a buying reaction.
So, on that side for ETC. And the last cryptocurrency, I have Tron, TRX, which is in a very important zone. Tron is really a cryptocurrency that has performed very well in 2023, 2024, 2025. There is a good de-correlation between Tron and the majority of altcoins. Al Tron, I said Trump, Tron rather. Here, we are clearly in a phase, it's very important to watch what's next because we have structured a small top pattern at this level. We see it, we have our MTP. So, an Mtop, it's like what we have here, logically, it's an inversion of dynamic. It's the end of an uptrend and the beginning of a downtrend. Because, logically, Mtop, that's how it's characterized. It's characterized by lower lows and lower highs. Especially here, we see it clearly, the range phase. Logically, a range preceded by an uptrend has a higher chance of breaking upwards. Here, we are breaking downwards. We are in the daily tunnel. It's the last major level to watch. If we start to break it, we would have the break of a level that hasn't been broken for a while, since 2023. We see that since we've been in an uptrend, the daily tunnel has always acted as support. So, here, we would clearly have a rather bearish confirmation. If we start to settle below the daily tunnel, we could start with a more significant retracement. When it's like this, we take Fibonacci, lowest point, highest point, and there, we look at our first stop which is already at the level of 0.382 cents of a dollar. This can be a very good zone to look for a potential long. And if we don't hold this first stop and it breaks, the objective is generally to reach the long-term reload zone. A good entry on TRX in case of a false retracement is here, the previous ATH with this reload zone around 0.618. This can be a good zone where it could be interesting to reposition because here on TRX, we are much too high to look for longs.
So, I'm done with that. We'll monitor Powell's Discord in a few minutes, and we can discuss it again on Discord if you wish. If you have any questions, don't hesitate, and in any case, I will make a video tomorrow on this subject. I wish you a very good evening and I'll see you tomorrow for another video.