Transcription
We did have some interesting developments today in tech, but I think it'd be remiss to not talk about how we are now hitting another all-time high. And we got to talk about what's happening after hours. But NASDAQ also plowed ahead. And there was a little differentiation here that I think is really worth paying attention to.
For me, the most important thing about this is if you take a look at the volume. So, we came in with the end of the month and the beginning of the month. If we look at the volume here, and I think that this was lost. Take a look at this. This was one of the largest buys that we've had all month. We have these others that are popping out of all these different ranges that I have here. And that is important.
But for sheer absolute value, where are we? You're at a level that you've only seen about two or three times, candidly, in the past month, month and a half. You'd have to go all the way back to this March 31st turn to get you that fifth one. And that's saying a lot, you know, considering how far that you've come and this is what you're dealing with. And we've already reversed what happened on the month. And there's a couple key things to take from this because it's not just semiconductors. Most traders are reacting to the institutional levels. What we're trying to get you to do here is to know what they're doing ahead of time. Subscribe. Click all notifications. What we go over here is timely by hitting the bell. You don't get it after retail is already in. The important thing is you get the information education that you need. Subscribe. Let's get to it.
Most important thing we can do is start with the leader and that is semiconductors. Now you are broadening out of semiconductors. But I just want to point out that since we've opened up on Wednesday, had that bar down. We've been in that range ever since. So what was Wednesday, and this is why I just absolutely love doing this. So we're just going to shrink this down for a second. This is the ESOX. And you can see that Wednesday the 27th was the equity weighted area. Now that would mean the capex guys could be leading. Could also mean that analog would be leading and that would be your Texas Instruments for example that would be your ODI, right? Those kinds of names or NXPI. So once we saw that we realize what they're rotating and here we go again with the internal rotations. So the first thing you're going to take from this video is that they are rotating back into the AI semiconductor trade. They are rotating out of the analog trade as you can see here on the 27th that is marked by that socks bar. So here's the socks bar. Here's the equity weighted so and you can see right here how we are in that space and then we go ax and you can see that the AI trade is back in full force and that is actually an area which is really now the low of that breakout. So they are now the leaders. So that puts us back in the driver's seat with names such as Nvidia and that's the correct way to pronounce it. Any questions about pronunciation, just feel free to leave a comment.
And I think that this is really important what happened today because Computex is today. They've come out on their conference call right here on the 20th of Wednesday and stated, "We are going to do $20 billion eventually annually just in CPU." Remember this is where on their conference call they said we are a CPU company 170 or 180 times. Now look at them breaking out, coming out of that huge move. And this is exactly what we're looking for. Now you're flipping what? You're flipping the 12, the 22, and the 55. I used a 12, a 22, and a 55. You should use what you're comfortable with. But now you're breaking out of that area and you've gotten several price target raises today of $300. But wait, there's more. Today at Computex, they announced a new chip, which we knew was coming because of this date. They said it would be uh out by third quarter, but you're in full-blown production and obviously that is faster than what people expected, clearly by the movement in the the names here and what's happening with AMD obviously coming in uh and AMD did catch where Intel did not actually catch on the news and this is really bad for Intel from a technical standpoint closing below the 22 for the first time. You're back over the 12, seems to be holding uh and then from there we just start getting weaker and weaker and now we have broken the 22 for the first time since the rip and that's not really what you want to see. So then and that's not really what you want to see. You don't want to be closing under the 22. So I would say that AMD held up a lot better. You stayed above the 12 and on top of that you closed over the open. Intel did no such thing. Intel closed under the 12, under the 22, and that's not really where you want to be. So, I would watch that level. If we go back and get fancy and use candlesticks, it is a perfect dogee sitting there. So, you're going to want to watch that, see how it acts. It had a huge move and for it to give back. That really wouldn't be out of character for it to give something back. So, let's keep that in mind.
Now, ARM, what we're seeing there is a continuation. We're going to clean all this off. And we had this huge move when on the 20th. Now, this is why I always tell people to listen to these conference calls because this conference call when we listen to it, we were able to go out there after hours like 256 and actually buy this. I put out an alert and I personally bought it and then it just kind of kept on going, didn't it? And today they came out and by the way, Vera comes out. Guess who's their partner with this new chip? ARM and Nvidia are now obviously going to partner with this. And so you have Dell ARM and I feel like I'm in the 90s again with Window, but it's Dell ARM and of course Microsoft. Now Microsoft's down $6 after hours. We're going to talk about that and the big capex boom that's going on that nobody really saw coming that came out this evening and we'll talk about that as well. But for my point today, Computex continues to go for the next couple days and I would continue to watch that.
I think we would be remiss to not talk about what's going on in IGV and we're going to talk about why it's down after hours in a minute here, but the amount of volume that's coming in here is absolutely staggering. And I want to point out and again be captain obvious here, we are hitting a higher high. So month end everyone showing everybody like, "Hey, we own software too." So they're doing their quote unquote window dressing and then at the same time what are they doing June 1st? Those people that really didn't care about the window dressing are saying, "Okay, it's time for us to go long." And they're going long and strong and piling in there. I think this is super important to get and very important for us to pay attention to. So, I really do like what you're seeing here in the software space. Take a look at this. And I think the really important part of this more than anything is the continuation of follow-through a couple couple today especially off the open with the, you know, he said she said with the war which has just been an absolute nightmare. You can see how we're down here. It's been really hard off the open and you know, I've noticed a couple things and I'm going to point a couple things out to you that I think could be very helpful. We'll get to why this turned into a dumpster fire at the end of the night. It's actually a positive for uh capex spend but we'll get to that in a moment. I want to just review this because I think that this could be very helpful for you tomorrow, especially for you guys that are doing more short-term trading, but candidly when these things are moving 8% a day, I don't know who's sitting there just holding these things randomly.
But let's get to this. When you move like this, I find it very difficult. You know, the people that trade, you can always tell the people that trade versus the people that pretend when they're just like, "Oh, just hold on to it." Like, who's just randomly holding a stock that moves 10, 15% a day? You know, unless you're up in it a lot. But you'll note straight down the first two, three minutes. These are not small moves, guys. They're not. So, here you are down in three minutes. Where are you? You're down all the way. And you can see where you dropped. And you can see exactly what transpired. You came all the way back down nine points in 2 minutes to gap fill. And you're seeing this a lot. You're seeing the gap fill and then you're seeing the bounce. And you're seeing it mostly in the very, very beginning of the day. Like within the first 3 to 5 minutes, they're testing that level. They're seeing what they have back up. And then watch this opening price right there. Since that point reverses off the open, can't get through the open anymore, and that's within the first 30 minutes, and then you know that from there that you are fine. I would sit there and make sure that you take a look at this and continually mark off the opens and the previous closes in this environment because that is how people are positioning themselves.
If I have the time, I'll walk you through something else. I think we may have the time, but we do need to get into why we're down $78 and why Microsoft's imploding and and Google's imploding as well and why HPE is up so much. It's up another 20% and I think Dell's up another 20 points from its close. So, we have to cover this. Uh, so let's do it now.
Now, we all know that the hyperscalers are spending an inordinate amount of money and we know that that number is increasing and increasing. What people aren't understanding and the way that they're not looking at this is that what one person spends, another has to spend. So this evening there's a note that comes out and that when that note drops, it causes a precipitous move and that move is to drop Google by about $8. Now if you look after hours on this, let's drop this, get to the extended and we'll drop it like the kids say, "drop it like it's hot." And we can see right here that 362, all that move was straight down. Why did that happen? Here it is. Hot off the press. And I'm going to paraphrase parts of this in the headlines, but at least you get the gist of it. Google parent Alphabet is raising $80 billion in equity offerings to help its artificial intelligence spending plans. So, hyperscaler capex, that's a fancy way of saying that. Equity offerings means we're going to sell stock and maybe we're going to sell some convertibles. Uh, offering includes a $40 billion at the market program and $30 billion in underwriting offering of shares and mandatory convertible preferred stock as well as a $10 billion deal with Berkshire Hathaway. So Berkshire is probably getting a special preferred and a special yield. Um, and that makes a lot of sense. They, Berkshire loves deals like that because they get the upside of the equity and they also get very favorable terms. They get really good terms, frankly. Uh, AI is driving expansion every moment for Alphabet and the company seeking to expand its foundational infrastructure to support significant growth opportunities ahead. Does this sound like somebody that is slowing down their spending? Does this sound like hyperscaler spending is going to go higher or lower? See, when you just start boiling it down to the simple things, does it, does this mean we're going to have more capex spending or less? You're going to have more, right? So, when we start to think of it that way, what does that mean? Well, if you want to compete, then you have to compete. Well, how are you going to compete? So go take a look at what Meta is doing after hours, 600. Okay. Why is Meta down? Meta's down because obviously the capex spending because that means Meta has got to go out there and spend. Microsoft, why are they down? Because now Microsoft has to go and spend more money. Why is Oracle down? Because now Oracle has to go and spend more money. You're in an arms race. It's no different than Russia, US in the 80s. You're in an arms race here. And the bottom line is, and this is what people aren't getting about this, it's not going to stop because it doesn't make sense to you. It's not about it's not about you. It's about Google trying to maintain their dominance. And in order to do that, they're going to outspend everybody that they possibly can. Once you get this concept down, all this stuff will start making a lot more sense. Does this mean that maybe someday you have data centers that aren't being fully utilized? Maybe, maybe not. You know, maybe there'll be another use for them later down the line or maybe they're just going to just go straight through capacity. But if you think of this as an arms race, then what Google and the spend that these companies are doing starts to make a lot more sense. It's about maintaining their dominance more so than just all these quote opportunities that are out there. You know, adapt or die, essentially. So, please keep that in mind. That's why these names are moving. A lot of this stuff starts to make a lot of sense when you start connecting it.
All right. And we went through this the other day with you. And that's why I always say if if you're interested to subscribe, if you want to follow along and know what's going on, what's actually going on, follow along because we do follow the money. If you watched what happened here on the institutional side, you could have seen Lenovo. You saw that they couldn't get in that name fast enough and it's up 100% from here. And that is your what? Hardware spending. They are spending a fortune on hardware. And that is Google that just came out. Want one of them that just came out and said, "By the way, we're going to go raise another $80 billion." So, do you think that's going to increase the amount of product that you're buying at Dell or it's going to be less product that you're buying at Dell? And this is what everyone's starting to understand. You know, Friday I had this statement um when we came in on earnings. And I was very clear with the community like, "Hey, we've actually owned this thing for a period of time. We've owned it since about 20 something um off of a a move down in here and then another move in here. 206 and I'll just do it this way. It's easier to update it this way. This was something I put in the room. So, we're up 100% in the 243 stock that we bought on May 8th, 231 May 6th. Um, and I'm combining both and I added on Friday and I was very clear what I was doing on Friday with this. What I did was I bought stock, but I also bought puts just in case it got goofy. So, I bought the 400s. I think I paid like three bucks for them. And I just said, "I'm just going to add to it all day long against the puts." And then the puts obviously went to zero, but the stock closed at 420. So, I was able to buy down here and just sit with it all day and then just see if I was, you know, fortunate enough and if I was accurate. I just fortunate enough and it closed up. H whatever. And then I wanted to catch it for Computax, which obviously was, you know, a really good move. And now you can see after hours. Now, we're going to talk about what's happening after hours with HPE, but hopefully you can see this is all connected. If Google's not raising money, then Dell's not doing this. So, this idea that it's all circular and that, oh, these deals don't make any sense. No, they're outspending one another. It's like, who has more tanks and but oh, but it doesn't matter because blah blah blah. Okay, everyone's going to tell you it doesn't matter. Everyone's going to tell you that you're at the top of the market. Everyone's going to tell you that it's a bubble, right? If you didn't call the bottom, you're not calling the top. And this doesn't end when earnings are increasing. It ends when earnings are dropping. When you have earnings that are setting up to drop, that's when this ends.
There's a really good book on this, and I don't think I can grab it quick enough, but I can get you a slide. And this will You want to know when this is going to end? I'm going to show you when this is going to end, but let's do it live. Hold on. All right. Here we go. This is when it ends. And you don't know when this is going to happen, but I'm going to show you. You want to buy this book, and you want to read this book. And I don't care what you think of his politics, but you want to buy this book and you want to buy as close to the first edition as you possibly can before people got in there and screwed around with it. I think this is probably top three if it really talks about theory. But this is how you have to think about it. Stock price will rise, earnings will rise. It's that simple. Until earnings are going to start turning. Before the earnings start falling off, the stock price will start doing something like this. It'll start going like this. And then because there will be signs by people that are actually doing the work and then what will happen this will start to turn and when this actually pulls down and drops, that's when this gets super ugly and falls down. That's when you'll get this. Until then, stock will go higher until you get to an earnings peak. You are not at an earnings peak. So the idea that you're going to call the top, I'm not saying that you're not going to have volatility move around, but this concept, like if you get this concept, get that book and you just follow this and just get rid of all the noise, it sorts through everything because it's just the way it is. Like if if they're going to keep beating earnings, the stock's going to go higher. If Sandis keeps beating earnings, do you think it's going to go down? No. So just your goal is to say how much are they going to beat by? Are they going to miss? What are the issues that are coming up? It's not to say, "Oh, this is too high." That's like hitting a baseball out of the park and saying that can't be a home run. It's too high. Doesn't make any sense.
And this is what I'm talking about. When you start to see companies like HPQ, which came out with earnings and they were excellent, they weren't fantastic, but they were excellent. And it wasn't like this big blowout, but now look at it because people are like, "Oh, next quarter is going to be even better." Like they're getting where this is going. So, a great example of this is HPE. And and once you're tracking this stuff, it gets so it gets so much easier because you start seeing like, oh, now they're going to go into the hardware after they went into the compute and the inference because now they have to build the data centers. Like all you're doing is connecting dots. So now this was we bought this in like the mid to late 20s, 26 or 27. Um, and earnings, you know, they have a they bought a company called Juniper. 135% year-over-year last quarter is the growth of Juniper. So, you thought it would do well on Dell, but it concerned me that we were just running up so much and we were up almost 100% in it, but we were up so much on it. Bought calls at the end of the day, uh, because I didn't really feel like just being left out even though I have stock. And obviously, that that worked out really well. Um, there are calls going on now and you're up another 12 or $13. It got to 65. I don't know where the calls end on this. And that reminds me, I want to walk you through this because this might be a lot of fun tomorrow as well. Something is moving pretty big after hours. Hold on one second here. Yes, you only go to 66. So if you see it get over 66 tomorrow, they can always come out with more, but if you see it get over 66, then you know that there is a uh, you know, there's an issue there. So definitely something to keep on on our radar for tomorrow.
Something else that I think super interesting that's going on, cyber security names, Crowd Strike, Pan W. What do these names all have in common? And I call it and it's pronounced Fortnite. All these names have one thing in common besides ripping your face off. And AVGO just also happens to be in this group and it does happen to be up $15 after hours. They are the top 10 holdings. They're roughly 40% of CIBR. CIBR is out of strikes now. They're actually out of strikes. You have to go out to July. They could always come out with more tomorrow, but I thought it was interesting that they're moving. You may want to watch that. Two other things that I think would be really helpful for you for tomorrow. Besides the fact that we just went through the Computex and the Dell and connecting all these dots, there's parts of this. I try to do this in week ahead videos. Um, well, actually for you guys, the deep dive, Saturday deep dives. But for me, it's really important to get these concepts because I think this I think June's going to be so much fun. I think it's just going to be absolutely wild.
But you guys are trading this PU RR. Um, you want to be really careful when everybody on Twitter's talking about it. They usually have no idea what they're doing and then they're just they're the last people that are shoving you into something. Um, if you look at something like that versus something like uh I think it was like this THYP, do you see the difference? See, if you understood that THYP is actually one for one and if you buy THYP, you actually own Hyperlid versus if you own this, you own a company that owns Hyperlid. Do you see the difference there? That's like buying BMNR and thinking that you own either Ethereum or Bitcoin. You just own a a pile of garbage, right? So, it's the same thing. It doesn't mean that it can't work, but just understand the difference. So, if you're trying to play those names, you might want to look at this THYP. And then there's this one I I did on Friday, and you might want to watch that as well. That's the 2X for your degenerates. You can go out there and play with that, and wish you the best of luck. May the odds be in your favor. Uh, but that's really a super interesting little cryptocurrency and and I actually like what I'm seeing with that. It actually looks like a fantastic chart. You actually have a little bull flag in here. Bearish right here engulfing followed by a bullish engulfing followed by a breakdown and then a rising three breakout and then right here you have a piercing pattern. Like it's the cat's pajamas followed by three white soldiers. It's it's crazy what you have going on here. So, it's super bullish activity and I think that that's telling you something for you, you know, for you guys that are looking at this stuff. Um, and I think there's something real about this company. So, it's definitely on my radar. I'm just going to play around with it. Keep that in mind.
Also, the other thing I want to say is I am I'm a fan of playing the UFO names and I'm trying to be super specific because you're seeing a lot of divergences, right? You you are you're seeing a lot of divergences. You're coming in. You're long Intel. So, I'm trying to be more micro for you guys tonight. You can always comment on this. I like being micro and I think it's important and macro and I think it's important and I think you're micro right now. So you're looking at UFO and you're watching these names coming in. You think they're cheap. They're not cheap if SpaceX is pricing way lower than people think it's going to price and you're already seeing signs that the IPO market has kind of had it. So you guys will remember the CBRS. We are short this. We've been short this since I don't know 300 something like that. And here we shorted it 290. Uh, and the reason for it was just it was ridiculous. You priced it at 180 on an IPO and then the next day you said, "Oh, no. It's worth double that." Uh, and what's it done? It's dropped. And again, it's the easiest trade out there. An IPO that opens up, you just drop a VWAP on it from that price point. And you just ride it down. You could you could have done this with Coinbase. You could do this with Rivian. Go back and run those charts and you'll see it. Until you get a real price point on there, Rocket Labs has a problem. And this bothers me because I had to close Rocket Labs today. Uh, as is trying to hold 100, keyword trying. This one makes the most sense to me because this is actually where the majority of money is uh in SpaceX through Starlink. Even though they're not the same, they're similar and that's getting a lot of the attention. So, I do find that interesting as well. Um, and then you have some of those other little those little guys out there. But most of all, I would watch that because you don't know where SpaceX is going to price. And I think that's going to be a little bit of a pickle. That's it.