Bitcoin Cliff Dwellers

Hey everyone, and thanks for jumping back into the cryptoverse. I thought we would go live. [clears throat] Why not? After all, Bitcoin is essentially sitting on the edge of a cliff, right? We've done this live stream, I don't know how many times, called "Cliff Dwellers." Um, we just mute the stream here. Um, but yeah, I mean, you know, same old thing. We've been here a thousand times before. Uh, so we thought we'd do a live live stream, maybe answer some questions, talk about the markets a little bit. Uh, maybe some dubious speculation if you guys are in the mood for that.

But the point is, one of the things to remember is that when you're in a bear market, right, when you're in a bear market, which we've identified many, many months ago, the point is to survive, right? To to to have your portfolio survive. If you control the downturn in your portfolio in the bear market, then the upside will eventually take care of itself. As long as you're not like chasing all this random stuff, panicking in and FOMOing in and then selling when it drops. Like, just relax, right? Relax and control the downside, control the drawdown of the portfolio, and then the upside will eventually take care of itself.

And so, you know, look, I know the altcoin market, I'm like the absolute Grinch and so many people hate me for it, but like, guys, this is this is reality. You know, a lot of them, a lot of the altcoin market is is just a scam. I mean, frankly. And you know, like, will some survive? Probably. Yeah, I I think so. But the point is, is, you know, there's been a lot of people chasing altcoins this cycle instead of just sort of sticking to Bitcoin through the bear market or, sorry, through the bull market, and it ended up coming back to bite them. There was this idea that a lot of people had, and and it was a false idea. And the idea was simply that that Bitcoin underperforms in bull markets and then it also bleeds to to US dollars in bear markets. So there's a lot of people that think, well, why hold Bitcoin when it always underperforms? This cycle is proof that that's not true.

You have, we have to understand that like, not every cycle will microcaps rally. And that is something that a lot of influencers are having to come to terms with now is that, you know, the cycle doesn't always owe them that. Um, there can be times where you, you know, you have a bull market where some things participate, but not everything has to participate. I want to give you guys a really, a really good example of that. So I'm going to share my screen here before I forget. Um, if I can remember how to do that. Okay, here we go. Um, so here we go. All right. So, we got the screen shared. Uh, by the way, if you guys wouldn't mind, subscribe to the channel. Give the video a thumbs up. You know, I am closing in on a million subscribers. It's going to still take many, many weeks to get there, if not several months. But if you're not subscribed, I would appreciate it if you would, in fact, subscribe, especially if any of the videos I've done uh have been helpful to you in any way. Um, also, I did want to mention, uh, we do have ITC Premium. Check it out. Links in the description below. We actually have a coupon code ITC50. Put it in the description below as well for 50% off your first month if you want to try that out.

Um, but essentially, what I want to do is I want to talk a little bit about like where Bitcoin is right now and maybe go through some dubious speculation regarding it. Just give me a second. I'm just trying to get some things set up here. All right. So, Bitcoin right now is at 75K. One of the things I mentioned was that we would likely see Bitcoin run down to these lows. Now, you can see that we're there now, right? Like, we're effectively at those lows. These are my thoughts, and I want to be very, very clear about them. I'm not, you know, there's going to be no ambiguity here on my part because I just want to be clear about what I, what I mean, what I think is is is relevant to think about, what I think some people are going to make the mistake of doing, the sort of the way I think it makes sense to to think about like what's going on right now.

Will there be a bounce when we sweep the low? No one knows, right? No one knows. I don't know. You don't know. Your favorite, your favorite influencer on Twitter doesn't know. People pretend to know. No one knows. Could there be a rally at that point? Yeah. I mean, there could be. When you look at 2019, you can see that when Bitcoin swept the low, there was, in fact, a rally to a macro lower high, right? I mean, it was to a macro lower high, but there was a rally.

Where it becomes tricky is when you look at the weekly. When you look at the weekly, where it becomes tricky is on a more macro scale. We know that in midterm years, when Bitcoin drops below the 50, it eventually goes to the 100, and then eventually to the 200. You can see that happened in 2014. It also happened in 2018. It also happened in 2022, and it looks like it's happening here in 2026. Right? You lose the 50, then you go to the 100. What's difficult, and what I, and this is, there, there's a little bit of, you know, there's certainly some unknown here. Normally, when Bitcoin loses the 100 week, it goes to the 200 week within a month or two. You can see that's what happened in 2022. You can see that's what happened in 2018, and you can see that's what happened in 2014. So if there is a rally from these levels, I think it would be relatively short-lived. Like, I don't, like, could it last a few weeks? Could it last? Yeah, I mean, it could, but I don't know. Like, I I I still think that the 200 week is the eventual target before it starts to make real sense of, you know, is the bear market actually over.

Now, I'll tell you where I would pivot. If, if we've made it through the end of October and Bitcoin still hasn't gone down there, then maybe I would have to say, "All right, perhaps it won't." But hell, by the end of October, the 200-week moving average could be pretty close to where the current price is. Um, the other thing that I wanted to mention, and I I think this is kind of one of those like, it's kind of like a weird coincidence. If you look at the number of days it has been since Bitcoin had a 50% drop, it's been about over 1100 days, almost 1200 days. The only other time in history where the chart looked like this was in 2018, and it completed its fifth 50% drop in early February of 2018. Well, here we are in early February of 2026, and Bitcoin is down 40%. If it were to drop 50% from the highs, that would actually put Bitcoin right around the 200-week moving average, which would then bring this chart back down to zero. It would reset the counter on the number of days since Bitcoin's had a 50% drop.

What's crazy to think about is that it's been almost 1200 days since Bitcoin had a 50% drop, especially given all the historical volatility of Bitcoin, that it went that many days without a 50% drop. So, it kind of feels like this cycle is different, and it kind of feels like this cycle is awful in some ways, but other ways you're like, Bitcoin has never gone this long without a 50% drop. Now, with that said, I I think we are, we will see one. And and even if you think the 2019 comparison is valid, which is what I think, if you exclude the pandemic, Bitcoin still had a 53% drop. And a 53% drop by Bitcoin puts you right at the 200-week moving average, right? Like it puts you right at it. So for me, I have to think that the 200-week moving average is our date with destiny, right? Destiny's knocking on the door. And, you know, I hope you're ready. I don't know if it's going to happen tomorrow. I mean, maybe it happens in like two months or something, but I do think the date with destiny is not too far away.

Now, obviously, we've made the comparisons to Nvidia and Google and how when they swept the low, it led to a new all-time high. So, I'm not going to pretend like that comparison doesn't exist. I mean, I feel like I'm the one who made up that comparison. But, at the same time, Bitcoin sort of behaves in its own bubble, no pun intended, where it tends to follow these cycles that you don't really see necessarily respected over in equities in the same way. Now, equities still have lows approximately every four years, but it's a lot harder to predict the highs in equities than it is for something like Bitcoin.

I've also mentioned to you guys that when Bitcoin sweeps the low from April, it should also correspond to Ethereum sweeping the low from June of 2025. Basically dropping around 2100. And guess where we are now? Right around 2100. You can see that low was around 2114. So it did look like that this has in fact played out, and also it's been, it's playing out right at the same time that Bitcoin has come back down to its own lows.

Now, I've been pretty vocal about my views about Bitcoin being in a bear market. I've been pretty vocal about my views about altcoins being basically terrible investments for the last five years. I've been pretty vocal about a lot of things. It has led a lot of other influencers to throw a lot of hate my way because I'm, you know, I'm like threatening their, you know, their business model of selling these like get-rich-quick schemes about buying altcoins and and and, you know, going after these low-cap gems. But I want you to, I want everyone to understand that Bitcoin, Bitcoin does not owe the altcoin market a thing. Not a thing. You cannot look, and I I've seen some people do this. You you cannot look at a multi-year bull market and then call it a bear market because your altcoin didn't rally, right? That makes absolutely no sense. That's the, you know, 2023 to 2025 was not a bear market. It was a bull market, but it feels like a bear market to some people that put their money into altcoins that did not rally.

Now, I want to give you guys a perfect example of this that will, I think that will ill-illustrate the point. So, if you look at the NASDAQ, I know a lot of you guys are not interested in equities, but I think you'll get there eventually. I have faith in you. If you look at equities, the NASDAQ has been in a bull market forever, basically, right? For a really, really long time. Would we ever look at the NASDAQ and say that this was a bear market because some random micro-cap stock company that you've never heard of didn't rally? No, it was a bull market.

If you look at the Russell against the NASDAQ, do you notice how it just bleeds over the long term? Do you notice that? Like, it just bleeds over the long term. And the only time in history where the Russell actually went up against the NASDAQ for a while was actually during the dot-com bust. Right? So the only time that microcaps were really outperforming in a durable fashion against the NASDAQ was when the NA, was when just the large-cap companies were getting obliterated, and the Russell wasn't going up against the NASDAQ because the Russell was going up against the US dollar. It was just that the Russell wasn't bleeding as much as the NASDAQ because the Russell already got annihilated. So when the large caps started to fall, the small-cap stocks were already close to zero. You know, they were close to being worth nothing anyways.

So you can look, we can look at the NASDAQ and say, okay, the NASDAQ has been in a macro bull market since 1987 with a few bear markets in between, but a massive bull market. Yes, we had some bear markets. I'm not saying, but but you can see it went up into the right. The Russell went down and to the right when valued against the NASDAQ the entire time. But we would not say that the NASDAQ was in a bear market because small caps didn't rally with respect to the NASDAQ. No, there's a reason the Russell doesn't rally with respect to the NASDAQ. It's because most companies, like a lot of them, only a few companies are are responsible for the gains, a lot of the gains in these large indices at any given time. It's only a few companies. And the Russell is has more exposure to companies that just haven't really made it yet. And once they do make it, then what? Guess what? They get taken out of the NASDAQ, or they get, sorry, they get taken out of the Russell.

So that argument holds absolutely zero water, right? You cannot say that Bitcoin's in a bear market. You cannot say that Bitcoin was in a bear market for for several years just because your altcoin didn't rally. Now that Bitcoin is has been in a bear market for several months, now people can see the underlying weakness in altcoins. But the weakness in altcoins was already there. It's always been there. If you look at total two minus USDT divided by Bitcoin, it's been dropping since 2021. So, altcoins have been in a bear market against Bitcoin for the last five years. But that's what I've been trying to tell everyone for the last five years. That's why I was preaching Bitcoin dominance so much, you know.

So, the way it works is like this, and I've explained this many, many times. First, alts bleed against Bitcoin. That's the first part of the process. Okay? They bleed against Bitcoin, then they bleed against the US dollar after Bitcoin rolls over and goes into a bear market. So, we already did the first part, right? First, alts bleed to Bitcoin. Then Bitcoin tops, then alts bleed to USD because Bitcoin is in a bear market. You might say, well, how could we have known this? That's exactly what happened in 2019, 2018, 2019 going into 2020. That's exactly what happened. First, alts bled to Bitcoin. They bled to Bitcoin while Bitcoin went down. They bled to Bitcoin while Bitcoin went up, and then QT ended. Bitcoin topped. Bitcoin then dropped. Alts dropped against the US dollar. They they kind of dropped a little against Bitcoin at times, but they, some of them actually trended up against Bitcoin, but no one cared because they were going down against the dollar because Bitcoin was going down against the dollar. The reason why alts weren't going down against Bitcoin was because they were already annihilated in 2018 and 2019. So, they actually started going up some, but guess what? Even though they went up for a while, they still went to new lows against Bitcoin in the following bull market, in the bull market accompanied by quantitative easing and lower rates.

So, what does that mean? I know this might sound surprising, but what it means is that altcoins are still not great investments, but they haven't been good investments. For five years, they haven't. So, will they ever be a good investment again? Probably, honestly, at some point they probably will be, but not necessarily the ones that exist today. Maybe it'll be new altcoins, right? I don't know what it's going to be. The point is, is unless until you actually have a parabolic euphoric rally by Bitcoin, you're going to be much better off in crypto with Bitcoin. If the parabolic rally by Bitcoin to euphoria never happens, it just means altcoins go to zero. If the parabolic rally by Bitcoin does happen eventually, let's say, call it, I don't know, later this decade, 2027, 2028, 2029, I don't know if that does happen and we have euphoria and if retail comes back.

So, if you look at the social interest, if retail comes back, which they, I don't know where they are. They're not here. I mean, I mean, I appreciate it looks like there's a few of you guys viewing. Um, so I mean, I I appreciate everyone watching, but the reality is is that like retail's not here. Now, there's dozens of us left. I'm not saying that there's not some of us, but dozens. Now, you might say, "Well, Ben, hold on a second. There's almost 4,000 people watching this video." It's relative, right? It's relative. So, when you look at this chart, no one's here.

Now, you might say, "Well, hold on a second. What about the people watching this? I mean, that's more than a few dozen. Look at this. I want to show you guys a chart and and you'll, I think you'll really appreciate what it's telling you. Um, YouTube views to a lot of different crypto YouTube channels. What do you notice? Nothing like 2021. So, yes, there's people watching, but these channels are still averaging 600, 700,000. Right now, 800,000 views a day. That might sound like a lot, but when you go back and look at 2021, there were times they were averaging between three and four million views a day. So, it's no surprise that alts have just been bleeding to Bitcoin because no one came to buy them, right? No one actually came to buy them.

And when you look at the advanced decline index of the top 100 cryptocurrencies, it continues to plummet to new lows. So, what I said earlier holds true. The weakness in the altcoin market has literally been there since the end of 2021. It was just masked because Bitcoin was going up. But once Bitcoin stalled out, the weakness in the altcoin market was undeniable, right? Undeniable. And what I mean by that, and this is what a lot of people kind of got messed up with, what Bitcoin did the entire cycle was this, okay? It would go up, put in a a low, and do something like this, right? So, Bitcoin had this structure, but a lot of altcoins had this structure, right? Something like this where it always felt like alt season was on the fingertips for people. Like it was almost there, but every time Bitcoin stalled out, altcoins just went back down to where they were the previous year. And now that Bitcoin has effectively, I mean, now that it's in more convincingly to other people in a bear market, now they're capitulating on their altcoins, now a lot of altcoins are are dropping. But this is what confused people. Their altcoins can never catch a bid with respect to Bitcoin. And so then when Bitcoin rolled over and started going down, a lot of people were like, "Hold on a second. Why didn't alt season happen?" But the reason why alt season did not happen is because retail never came back, and because we topped on, you can say it right. It's because we topped on apathy. No one's here. Guess when else we topped on apathy? In 2019. No one was here. No one cared. Bitcoin rallied 4x from the lows. Uh, more than 4x from the lows. Almost 5x from the lows. Guess what? No one cared. Why did no one care? Maybe it was high rates. Maybe it was monetary policy. There were a lot of random altcoins being printed back then. A lot of meme coins. You might say, "How do you know?" Because I maybe invested in them back then and learned my lesson.

So you have to look at the cycles and and recognize that if you have a cycle where we top on apathy, like 2025 and 2019, you should not expect a rotation into altcoins. But if you have a cycle where you top on euphoria, like 2017 and 2021, and hopefully sometime in the future, then you can have a rotation into altcoins. But the reason why it it makes investing in crypto actually incredibly easy for anyone who's willing to truly think about the implications of what I just said. Think about it. Is there ever tr I mean, I always get into trouble with, you know, the microcap influencers that want to show random altcoins that they are paid to promote, but the truth is this, right? You can go pedal altcoins to your audience all you want, but the reality is that altcoins durably underperform Bitcoin for the entire cycle.

Now, if history is any indication, Bitcoin dominance at some point will likely go back up to 666%. At some point, it'll likely be whenever Bitcoin goes back into maybe a bull market, or if there's just like a massive capitulation in alts. I don't know, one of those two things. But at some point, it'll happen. Now, here's the thing. Why does it make investing in crypto so easy to know all this? Because what it means is that there is essentially, and there has not been a great reason to hold altcoins for the last five years. The time to get interested in higher risk investments is under a euphoria phase by Bitcoin because that's when people convert their Bitcoin into into lower risk assets. If you don't have that, you're better off just sticking with Bitcoin.

So, Bitcoin, so I would basically say that, you know, Bitcoin is better generally in in bear markets. It's also generally better in bull markets up until the euphoria phase, up until then. So you don't have to spend years just sitting in dead altcoins waiting for a euphoria that never actually happens, and then the cycle comes and goes, and then people are stuck wondering like, where the hell it was, like, why didn't it happen this cycle? Truly, what I think, I'll tell you what I think. I think the main reason it did not happen has nothing to do with crypto, even though I say a lot that it does. There's, I I think there are some issues with crypto, and I'll talk about those. But I think the main reason it didn't happen is the same reason it didn't happen in 2019. Crypto cannot control what's going on outside of its walls. It can't control monetary policy. And when we had high rates and quantitative tightening back then, there was also no rotation, and Bitcoin topped on apathy. So, to some degree, and you can see that if you just overlay the the bank, the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve, you can see that as it went down, you know, altcoins just bled to Bitcoin. And even when it went up, altcoins still eventually put in new lows against Bitcoin. in the in the in the mania.

So, it means that Bitcoin is just better, a better hold long-term than altcoins. So, the way that the asset class could theoretically get back on track is for people to go back to what started it all. And that's not altcoins, it's Bitcoin, right? And and I I think it's going to take some time. People are getting there. I think a lot of people have already gotten there throughout the last few years. Um, I maybe convinced some of you to get there at some point, and there's a good chance that I convinced you, and then you sold your altcoins to Bitcoin, and then the next day alts rallied against Bitcoin, and there's a good chance you hated me for two or three months. But then there's also a good chance they eventually rolled over and went to those against Bitcoin, and then you kind of started to understand the game. So the way the asset class gets back on track is to eventually focus on what started it all, and that was, in fact, Bitcoin, not the altcoin market.

And the reason why I think we have to have a cleanse, essentially, you know, two years in a row, um, is because there's just too much garbage, right? Like, there's too much garbage. Um, I'm not bearish on Bitcoin long-term, but I'm sure as hell bearish on a lot of these altcoins that have been created. I mean, there's, do you know there was more altcoins created in like a single day in 2025 than were minted uh from 20 from 2009 to 2021? A single day in 2025. That is a crazy statistic. Crazy statistic.

The other thing I wanted to sort of draw your attention to is we have this global net liquidity chart. Now, what you'll see here, this chart, this orange line, it's the same thing. We've seen this playbook before, right? Like, I've read this story, and I think some of you guys have read this story as well. This also happened last cycle. It's just this is a much bigger version of it. Altcoins also stalled out, and it was a Bitcoin le bull run when global net liquidity sold out. This is, if you're not sure what I'm talking about, it's the uh we're aggregating the balance sheet of major central banks, the Fed, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of China, the Bank of England, and the the the ECB, and then we're subtracting out the reverse repo and the TGA, the Treasury General Account. When you do that, you get the orange line. Don't M2 is not a great thing to follow, right? Follow global net liquidity. That's what I think you should follow. And that's what helps show you why Bitcoin was the better play this cycle is because a lot of people thought there was a lot of liquidity sloshing around because M2 was going to new highs. But when you look at global net liquidity, it tells a completely different story. Completely different story. And during this period, it was a Bitcoin. It started off with a Bitcoin bear market. Uh, I could even overlay Bitcoin. Might make it a little bit easier, right? You can see it started off with a Bitcoin bear market, and then it led into a Bitcoin bull market. Bitcoin topped on apathy. It came back down. Global net liquidity started to go up as Bitcoin came down. Then we had a big crash in stocks, and then the money printers turned on, and then the rest is history. Where we are right now is somewhere in that 2019 downturn. We're somewhere in there. That's where we are.

It just h I get a lot of flack for people saying, "Well, you keep saying it's like a midterm year, but then you can keep comparing it to 2019." Yes, I know. I've explained it a thousand times. The reality is the downturn in 2019 just coincidentally happens to correspond to a normal bear market in crypto. The 2026 bear market. This starts in Q4, the post-halving year, which is when it always starts. So, what does this mean? M2 is a terrible indicator for showing where Bitcoin's going to go. And I said this a long time ago. Bitcoin leads M2. It does not lag it. A lot of people think M2 leads Bitcoin, but if you like Bitcoin, give Bitcoin some credit. Bitcoin leads it, not lags it. I know a lot of people don't buy it, but there's a lot more evidence of what I said than the evidence of what they said. The reality, good chance neither of them are true, but I would argue if you look at the charts, historically, Bitcoin tops before M2, not after. And in fact, in 2022, if you waited for M2 to top to call a bear market, you would have called a bear market when Bitcoin had dropped to basically 20K. So, what use is there in trying to use M2 to figure out where the crypto asset class is going? Because Bitcoin always tops before M2. In the middle of the bull market, it looks like there's some causation. It looks like M2 leads, but if you go back and look at all the other bear markets, you can see that Bitcoin tops before M2 does. So, I would argue a much, much, much better chart to look at for understanding the dynamics in crypto is net liquidity, not M2. M2 is not telling you a single thing that's going on uh at the central banks. It's just telling you, you know, um, some, I mean, it's telling you the the money supply, but I I don't, I think crypto is is much more tied to other things than just the money supply. It's much more tied to other things than just, because if it were, why didn't altcoins do well this cycle? I mean, the proof is there. It is there.

Uh, by the way, if you guys are watching, make sure you subscribe. Give the video a thumbs up. Um, how many people are watching? Let me go take a look. Okay, we got about 4,500 on uh YouTube. Um, yeah, make sure you guys subscribe, give the video a thumbs up. Again, if you want to check out ITC Premium, you can do so at intothecryptoverse.com. Links in the description below. And if you enter the code ITC50, you will get 50% off your first month.

Um, let's continue. And we'll, I mean, we'll see if if Bitcoin can bounce at these levels. I mean, who knows? Maybe it can. I think eventually it'll hit the 200 week, but if you made me guess, like, if Bitcoin's going to bounce, perhaps it could bounce somewhere in this area. Um, but I will say this. If you give up this level here, then you're going straight to the 200 week, which is probably what eventually will happen. I just don't know if it's going to happen right this second, right? Um, so keep that in mind, right? Keep that in mind.

Also, you know, some people ask me like, well, you know, if they haven't sold, should they sell now? I mean, a lot of times panic selling in a capitulation is not a really great idea. Um, if you, I think the time to sell historically is just in Q4 of the post-halving year, and then if you don't sell then, you kind of just weather the storm. I still own uh, you know, a, you know, some of the Bitcoin that I held last cycle. I I it's not like I got rid of all of it. And the reason for that is because I could be wrong, you know? I mean, like, like what if this is it, right? What if this is it? It's not my base case, but what if it is? Um, I don't want to be the schmuck, you know, with no Bitcoin and and especially if you go into another bull market. But those are my views. Like, those are my views. I've made them pretty clear, like why they're my views. And and really, when you top on apathy rather than euphoria, you essentially just get these slightly lower lows and slightly lower highs. So anytime Bitcoin goes lower, it like it makes you think that, um, oh, like that's it, and then it just pops up for a little bit, and then it goes lower again, right? Slightly lower lows, slightly lower highs. So, you don't get the capitulation that everyone's wanting immediately. You do eventually get it. I think eventually it happens. It just takes a long time to get there. It takes a lot of lower lows, a lot of lower highs, then you finally get the capitulation, and then we can build off of that. But yeah, I mean, you can see that that Bitcoin's probably going to form a low sometime, sometime relatively soon, and then bounce, and then we'll see where that where that leaves us.

Um, all right, let us maybe take some questions. Uh, anyone have any questions? Just joined. ETH hit 21. Yeah, we talked about that uh a lot. 2100. Yeah, it just went to 2163. Yeah, it's essentially near the regression band now. It's almost there. Like, I mean, it's almost there because the, if you look at like the fair value, it's like around 238. So yeah, it's where we said it was likely going to go.

Um, yeah, another chart, the supply in profit and loss. That's always been a really good chart to try to like time the bottoms. And you can see that with the recent capitulation, it's getting a lot closer. Okay. Okay. Let me see if I. Okay, after topping on apathy, how much does risk level play in your next buying period as it seems like risk is already at store close? What I what I've said is like, what I'm doing is I'm just trying to to, you know, to kind of get to the summer um to to potentially start DCA. I I could see a low as late as October. I think it's going to be a difficult. I think it's going to be a difficult year because I I think there's going to be bounces. It's going to make you think it's over. It's probably not going to be um, it's going to be difficult, but, you know, it's time for building. You know, ignore the price. Build. Yeah. I'm not even. When I say build, you don't have to build in crypto. Just go build something. Go do something. Work on something. Work on, I don't know, like, you know, spending more time with the family, spending more time with the kids, working out, creating a company. That's what I think would be a good idea. Create a company if you have free time. Stop stressing about the price. Price going to do what it's going to do, regardless whether you're looking at the chart or not. Uh, my guess is when we look at this chart in six months, 10 months, we'll have seen these two lines cross. I don't know the path to get there, but that would be my guess.

Is this playing out faster than you were expecting? Uh, I don't, I mean, I don't, I mean, I think the the the goal was for Bitcoin to go to the lows of April. Like, I mean, that was the goal. I don't, I don't really think I necessarily had like a timeline on it. Um, I would say that if you look at all the prior times that Bitcoin fell to the 100-week moving average before then dropping to the 200 or before at least dropping below it, they've all been um, they've all been around that amount of time. Let's see. So, like here, yeah, about like two months, a little over two months or so. This one was, yeah. Same time frame. And if you go back and look at the one last cycle, a little bit longer, but it seems like a reasonable time. Like, I mean, it doesn't really seem like it's that off to me. By the way, the 100-week moving average is right around like 80, 87K. So, I wonder if the dollar is going to start showing some some strength um relatively soon because I could, I certainly could see that happening.

Uh, doesn't the entrance of institutions negate the need for retail? Um, I wouldn't say that. I mean, I I think I I know I think there still is a need for retail. I mean, you need retail adopting the technology for the for the sort of the investments that the institutions are making to eventually pay off because if retail doesn't care, then the institution's bets just never pay off.

Any advice for those who lost a lot? Any encouragement? I mean, I've lost a lot in part of cycles, and then the next cycle, I just learned my lessons and made better choices, and it worked out a lot better. So, I just say treat it as tuition, and especially if it's like your first cycle, it's always brutal. The first cycle, I feel like the first cycle, almost no one makes money.

Um, views on ETH Bitcoin? Yeah, I think I I do think there's a there's a decent chance that like ETH Bitcoin is going to um continue to uh I don't know. I mean, like, I I feel like the issue for me with it is that I still think that you're likely going to retest the lows down here eventually. And so that's why it's like hard to get too optimistic about it.

What about the fear and greed index? The problem. So, the fear and greed index, and I I said this a few months ago, like, usually confirmation of a bear market is when you get low levels and it doesn't lead to immediate rally, right? So, the fear and greed index has just been putting in like lower highs since December of 2024. By the way, if you look at the valuation of um uh Bitcoin against gold, it topped out in December of 2024, you know. Uh, and I mean, silver, Bitcoin against silver even looks like a crazier chart. I mean, silver's down a lot recently, but this even looks like a crazier chart because Bitcoin against silver just swept the low from 2022. That's a crazy looking chart. And if you think that looks crazy, take a look at altcoins against silver. I mean, they've gone way below the lows. And that, by the way, is with silver being down a ton, right? Like, silver's down a ton over a really short period of time. And this is why I said you don't FOMO into the one that's going parabolic. You know, there's other metals that look a lot better than than the one that has gone parabolic as this. So, I also think with silver, you know, the gold silver ratio went pretty low. And I mean, I made a video about this, but usually when the gold silver ratio is down here, it's a good idea to convert some of that silver back over to gold, right?

Okay. All right. Uh, it's your first cycle. You made 3x on Bitcoin. Managed to break even. I mean, look, we, you uh, you made some good investments. Some didn't go as well. I'd treat it as a win. I mean, 3x is not a bad move. It's more you would have gotten in the stock market.

Bare market support band. Uh, we can go check in with it. I mean, we're pretty far away from it right now. It's all the way up at like 93 to 96K, you know. So, yeah. I mean, basically this is the bear market resistance band until proven otherwise. Now, you could do something like this, right? Like, you know, it's possible that it does like this thing stair-step down as well.

Did we go below the 200 week? Um, I think, I mean, it's always possible. I I think what the harder thing is just like know where the wind is blowing. And [clears throat] for me, like, I might start to DCA Bitcoin maybe this summer um and then maybe more in October. I don't know. I mean, I don't know where the price is going to be when that happens. I just don't think it matters, right? Like, I mean, if if Bitcoin is at 60K in October, I'll probably buy it. If it's at 30K, I'll probably buy it then, too. Like, I don't, I don't know where it's going to be. I can't predict that. But I'll say that. I mean, I'll say this. I just think that's when you probably want to, that's when I would start to to to change my outlook.

Do I see a significant correction coming in stocks? I think so. I mean, I tweeted about that. Um, I just made a video on it as well. I'm going to release that video soon after this live stream is over. I think stocks are likely going to have a pretty big correction here. If you go back and look at February of 2018, you'll see that stocks had a really big drop in early February, and they actually dropped to the bull market support band. So, if stocks were to drop to the bull market support band, that, I mean, it's not a huge drop from the current levels, but it is at least a 2% drop. I think it could go even lower, but um, I think there is going to be a drop, and and one of the reasons is when when the S&P breaks down against gold, there are usually some corrections relatively quickly thereafter. Now, right now, it's kind of oscillating around this point, mainly because gold has dropped. Um, but yeah, this is an important, important chart to watch, especially in the context of history, when it's broken down in the past, has not been good for risk assets.

Your opinion on gold? I know a lot of people have turned bearish on it. I mean, short-term is probably bearish, but there's a lot of times in history where silver tops before gold. So, if you're going to bet on one of them right now, I'd say bet on gold over silver. Like, I the odds that the top for silver is in this year, I think, are pretty high. Like, there's a good chance that silver will not go above the prior high for the rest of this year, but there's actually a still a good chance that gold could. You look at 1973 and 2011, silver topped early in the year, gold topped later in the year. Will it go to an all-time high? I think eventually it will, but I don't think it's going to happen this year.

What about Bitcoin dominance? I think right now Bitcoin dominance is just kind of stuck in this phase where, you know, it's kind of like this area over here where I think it eventually will spike back up. I don't know exactly when it's going to be, but I I it will eventually come back up here. I think it could, it could always go low. I mean, if Bitcoin gets a big capitulation, dominance could go down first and then go up. Um, so I'm not as deterministically bullish on it, but I do think it will come back up to the highs before you have any chance of of seeing altcoins do do durably well against Bitcoin. Like, I I think it'll come back up here eventually, even if it goes lower first.

Will cash be king this year? Yeah, I mean, I mentioned against against a lot of risk assets, it is. I think there's going to be some things cash maybe underperforms, but I think cash will likely outperform a lot of, you know, a lot of risk assets this year, but not everything. You know, I could see some sectors doing okay. I talked more about those on ITC Premium. I'm not going to say everything, right?

Opinion on uranium? I'm biased on uranium. I'm I'm a macro uranium bull. Um, cash was king exiting trades in 2025. Yeah, exactly. That was what I was, that was what I was sort of pointing out is that, you know, the time to sell is like late 2025 so that you have something to actually buy the dip when it when it goes down.

All right, guys. Um, I think I'm going to get going. Uh, but I'm happy that you guys were here. Make sure you guys subscribe. Give the video a thumbs up. We've got a lot of people watching. Uh, again, if you want if you more want more info, check out ITC Premium at intothecryptoverse.com. Use the coupon code ITC50, you'll get 50% off your f 50% off the first month. Also too, if you if you're really curious um about if you want to read stuff, we have a report about what's going on in crypto right now. We published it a few weeks ago on January 15th when Bitcoin was at 97K. And, you know, if you just want to like get the PDF, you can get it. Just put in your email. We'll send you the PDF. If you don't want to put in your email for whatever reason, that's okay. you can still read it on the on the website, but it it really does kind of explain what's going on if you just want to read about it rather than hear me ramble. But anyways, thank you guys for tuning in. Subscribe. Uh, maybe you can help me get to a million subscribers sometime this year. And uh, give the video a thumbs up if you haven't. And I'll see you guys next time. Bye.