Are Your Ready?

Hello followers of the four-year journey. This is Bob Lucas here on September 24th, 2025. I hope you're well. Thanks for checking in.

This is coming to you from New York City. And it's been 3 months since the last video. Just about 3 months. So I apologize for that delay between videos. Um, hasn't been the the best of action since that video. We're supposed to be in the heart of the bull market right here. We're up around about 10% or even slightly less than that since the last video. So, it has been kind of crawling along here where you really expected it to be going full on, just like the equity markets, stock markets are doing or have been doing the last few months. We've seen a bit of a trailing uh divergence, I guess, from from equity markets. We're also seeing gold go on a really big tear.

So, I know for many people that is making some people fearful, potentially worried about some big top that's in place. Going to cover that today and and and tell you why I don't think that's the case. It's going to be a relatively short video as well because I want to keep it really focused on where we stand in the four-year cycle. It's really a clear-cut path that I think we have ahead of us. So, I think we're going to buckle up next 3 months into Q4, into where historically a four-year cycle would peak. We're right on that doorstep right now. So, we really should be looking for a blowoff phase that is imminent, that is just about to begin in my opinion.

But I also want to talk about other outcomes because I'm not here just to bull talk for followers. I'm here to really describe what I think the probabilities or the possibilities are in in in the future here and try and put some logical weight behind each of these possibilities. And I think really we have the primary view, which is a blowoff is about to occur into a 4-year cycle high. But we can't ignore the fact that we are seeing some weakness relative to other assets, other risk-on assets in particular, and therefore, given where we stand in the four-year cycle, that there's a possibility that the top is in.

I also want to talk about this possible idea that maybe these four-year cycles won't be three years up, one year down. Maybe we've got sort of this extended view and possibly uh the four-year cycle will exist, meaning from one low to the next low being a 4-year time frame. But where that peak occurs, we could be looking at a surprise where we could be looking at maybe a 2026 high in this four-year cycle, a shorter duration bare market. I'll cover that as well here as I go over the monthly chart. So, thanks for checking in. Let's get stuck into that.

So in the spirit of keeping this sort of as clean and as tight as possible and avoid me going into some type of rambling uh analysis of what we see, the simple fact is very simply that this 4-year cycle, although in many respects different to prior cycles, has a lot of similarities and more importantly, it has been a pretty consistent uptrend marked by these periods of outperformance that make up the majority of the gains in this cycle. We saw the first spurt or move out of the four-year cycle low. Then we had a consolidation. Then we had a four, five month run, a consolidation, then we had a two-month run. And this is one pretty wide consolidation. Even though we've made sort of these higher highs that create some separation. When you look at it kind of visually, it's not a significant separation. We had a high to begin the year at 110 and then we we went up to 124. It's only a 10% move from those highs. So, it's only from the the top in December, January to the top here more recently, a 10% move.

As far as I'm concerned, this is one big foundation, one big solid block upon which we've seen a significant amount of whales selling, significant amount of uh basically of holders that have been in Bitcoin for a considerable amount of time, getting relatively late in the four years cycle, seeing a six-figure number, and for them it's been an unlock. It's been time to to really cash in and realize whatever dreams they've had. They've done obviously an amazing job hodling for a decade or more. And that's been kind of the pressure I think this um the buying significant buying support that we see from institutionals, from pension funds, from Sailor and the like, that have held the price in this range but have really been met with a pretty equal amount of sellers being these uh these long-term large holders or whales that I believe has kept this market so somewhat in check right here.

But with that said, we have currently a high in August that occurred on month 33. And I'll get into sort of the bearish possibility in a minute, which really relates to that 33-month high. But what's absent more importantly here is a blowoff to a high. In every cycle that we've had for Bitcoin into the four-year cycle high, we've had this three-month period leading up to it where you've had euphoric buying and excitement and a significant price appreciation, an extension into very overbought territory, and that leads to a peak. The only thing that came close to that was the big move last year in November, almost a year ago at this point, that occurred over a couple of months from the from the trough here at 52,000 to to almost 100,000. So basically a doubling in price. We also saw something similar back in February, beginning of that year, a doubling in price and of course the initial moves.

In my opinion, the reason why I still believe there's a blowoff move ahead is that I I do think given all of the attention that Bitcoin has received and crypto as a whole, but let's focus on Bitcoin that Bitcoin has received, whether it's through the institutional play, but also more importantly importantly from a regulatory perspective, the government's involvement, all of that for me, along with how traditionally cycles end in a blowoff. off or they peak in a blowoff kind of move, an absent of a blowoff here in this cycle right in the timing band for where you expect the cycle high to be uh to to exist or occur, I think that move is on the cusp or on the cusp of that move right here. And I say that because we're very late in this cycle for the rising portion of the cycle. So a cycle of course is measured from one low to the other low, where the peak occurs will vary over time. And I've covered this in prior videos. I don't want to cover it in this video. Where the peak occurs will change over time and from cycle to cycle. It just so so happens to be today throughout Bitcoin's existence that they've occurred around that three-year mark, that 35-year, 35-month sort of period. We're very close to that now. We're on 34 months and we've yet to see one of these blowoff moves.

Which is why it is of my opinion that if we are to mirror prior cycles, if cycles are to rhyme, which they mostly do, and absent of one of these blowoff moves, I believe again we're on the cusp of a two or three-month significant move where typically over a six-month period, what I call the weekly cycles, you see a near doubling or in some cases like right here to the peak in December. We had a doubling from this low to this period over a 3, 4-month period. Right here we have a foundation or a base to support a blowoff move. We are at the most opportune time in the 4-year cycle for such a move. And as far as I'm concerned, everything is aligned. We're also seasonally right in the best period. Traditionally this October or the Q4 period, October through December, is traditionally the uh the most bullish period for Bitcoin and that is now aligning with where this four-year cycle would peak.

So that's keeping it really straightforward. This is really what we've been gearing up for for the last almost 3 years since that low was in place. And now we're at that point. We're at that point where if this follows prior cycles and we'll zoom out and you kind of see that ebb and flow really clearly. Excuse me, I didn't mean to do that piece. You see that ebb and flow up to a cycle peak, down to a cycle low, up to a cycle peak, down and up and down. Uh, this one's been a little more consistent in its path up, but again, we're at the same point we had we were back in the prior cycle highs. The only thing of course missing is sort of that surge that you see that blowoff euphoric move that often leads to a top in the cycle. That's the only thing that's absent here in this cycle. Therefore, I lean pretty heavily on the idea that we are days, if not probably a week or two perhaps, from the beginning of that start of that move, but maybe even just days or even hours. I don't know. We could be beginning that as I record. The point is we're not trying to time an hourly or a daily or a weekly move. We're in this a 4-year cycle time frame. And if you've been patient throughout this whole period, this is the period now where you wouldn't be afraid of a possible rollover or 33-month high.

And that's where I want to get into kind of this downside probability because it is there, right? There's always in investing this uh out of sort of you know out of left field kind of idea that hey, it just doesn't follow along this time around. We've seen equity markets go on a tear. It's just been up only, all-time high after all-time high. We've seen the same with gold. Yet Bitcoin uh doesn't seem to have the attention this time around, at least right now. So there is some outside argument that can be made that we've already begun this sort of rolling over period. 33 months to a high does pretty closely mirror prior cycles and from the bare market low to that high, it's a very healthy 700% rise and also, you know, still comfortably above the prior four-year cycle high that peaked just around 70,000. 70 to 124 in a diminishing return kind of environment is um is not so bad. If I had said at the beginning of this four-year cycle that this cycle could peak around that $125,000 range, around where prior cycles have peaked 33, 35 months or so, probably an outcome you would take and maybe even had said, h, that's maybe a little too optimistic. Okay. So we've kind of fulfilled my point is from a bearish perspective, we've kind of fulfilled a good strong bull market 4-year cycle, 33 months up, 700% up from the bottom. Okay. So I'm just try I'm just saying that simply to keep that bias in check. But at the same time, it's not a reason in my opinion to be sort of panicking right here or looking to to scale out with absent of that sort of final surge up to a possible high.

So my default view remains that we are close. We're on the cusp of a significant start to a final leg into the bull market high. And from a timing perspective, I don't hang my head on kind of an absolute number when it comes to when the cycle would peak. From a monthly perspective, 35 is just what the last few cycles peaked at. I think what you're looking at is a multi-week, 8, 10, 12, 14, 15 kind of week move to a high. And if that is something that happens in October with just one big sort of five-week move, or if it's more of a traditional kind of couple two, three month move, the point is that I think we're looking at a high between a 35 and 37-month period from December. Obviously, the longer it can go on for in a more of a euphoric surge or up thrust, the higher it can go. And that means from a target perspective, which I don't like to do, it really is a pretty wide range in in just how high a final blowoff move can go. You've seen, like I've said before, these prior moves have more than doubled in some cases off the the start of that move. A doubling from kind of the lows here last few months, let's call it 105 gets us up to 210 on a chart like this, drawing kind of this loose channel, getting up to around 210, just kind of gets you to the top of that sort of channel right. Um, and you've seen in prior cases where we've surged sort of above that level. So getting to the 200,000 level by December, although it sounds extremely optimistic, it is looking just at the chart visually, looking at what it's done in prior two, three month surges, there is a pretty clear path to that possibility and getting up to that point.

From a target perspective, take profit perspective for this cycle, I think we want to be a little flexible, a little fluid in allowing sort of a blowoff move, if that was to unfold, to really kind of stretch out. So, I'm not putting in some arbitrary numbers where I would sort of take some profit. I think it's going to be a matter of looking at and feeling sentiment at the time and looking at how stretched this market can get and then coming out with a video in sort of Q4 time frame if or when I feel for me personally at least, is the right time to start scaling out of a position in preparation for a top in the four-year cycle and then of course what I believe will ultimately be a 2020, 2026 period where we're entered into a traditional or four-year cycle bare market period. So that would be upcoming and just let the market unfold.

From a downside perspective right now, of course, given Bitcoin's historical volatility, you want to give it some room. I don't like when price closes below a 10-month moving average this late in the 4-year cycle. A 10-month is at around about the $100,000 level. Closing a month out under the 100,000 is a major warning sign at this point. Uh, while it remains above this this 10-month moving average, I think we just want to give it all benefit of the doubt, especially again absent of any sort of blowoff move. Currently, the last big low, this big weekly cycle decline down at 75,000. That's a level where of course Bitcoin shouldn't be anywhere near and a point where even though it's pretty well off the top, I think you'd want to take profit for the cycle. Um, one may argue that's too high off the high off the top, but let's not forget that these four-year cycle declines, these bare market declines for Bitcoin historically have averaged around about 85% off the highs. I don't think we're going to get something like that in the next cycle. I think it's matured enough, enough institutional involvement, uh, where that won't happen. But just for argument's sake or just for illustration purposes, an 85% decline gets you back down into that sort of $20,000 range. So there is still big potential downside if sort of the the top was in place and then we start moving lower.

Ideally, what I want to see is a move back above the 120,000 level. And for me, this late in the in in the bull market, it kind of creates a floor beneath us right here at this sort of 104, 105 level where those last few monthly candles occurred. So, and if we get a move to new all-time highs, then that certainly would become my floor because any rollover from that point. So it just to illustrate a move up in let's say October to around the 130 level, then a turn lower at this point, back below these last three monthly candles after making a new high, to me would indicate a change in trend and a likely top. It also would occur as I mentioned right on that 35-month period where prior cycles have peaked and a reversal after making a new all-time high in October back below the 105 level to me signals a top in the 4-year cycle. So, uh, I do want to see a move to all-time highs. It kind of leaves behind some stop levels that I think would be important that Bitcoin doesn't breach again purely because we're so late in the cycle. We want to see a market that doesn't really look back. And if it does look back and starts trading below those key levels, to me, it would indicate that a high or a peak in the cycle is in play. So, right now, I don't think this 33-month high is the ultimate high of the cycle, but I do think that we're in the final stage. Any any any move that goes up and begins breaking down, I would uh be be seriously worried that a high is in for the cycle.

The last alternative or possibility that I introduced here in the beginning of the video was this idea that that maybe this is going to be a deeper cycle, maybe into Q1, maybe even to early Q2, allowing for just a seven or eight month bare market into the next four-year cycle. I think there's some credibility to to that argument given again institutional play, the government's role in supporting and regul favorable regulations that that high doesn't come in until let's say month 40 or 41, 42 in that early time frame of 2026. I think if that was to be the case, you would probably you we probably would not see a kind of blowoff move occur. You would have an advance and a sold one, but maybe one that gets us to around about the 140, 150 level. So, from a um how to tackle that potential issue and not get out too early with the with with the bulk of the position, I think we want to wait to see and experience a true euphoric blowoff move that's either kind of an 80, 90, 100% move off these lows, which would indicate that the market or Bitcoin is heading into a high. But absent of that, anything that's more of a controlled rise up to this level, I think we just want to play it week by week and month by month and give Bitcoin a chance to continue extending into Q1 of 26 and beyond and then look for that final euphoric move if we can get a move up. So in this sort of third scenario, if we kind of get a move up into November or even say December and let's just say it's around that 150, 160 level, I think we want to hold that level and let's see kind of what it can do. Pull back and then rise up and then again wait for that kind of euphoric move to occur.

So really to summarize here, my main view remains that we are on the cusp of a major move. That the four-year cycle high is now weeks away, whether that's 8, 10, 12, 15 weeks. Q4 ideally historically is where that peak would occur. I understand that the market as a whole, the ecosystem is focusing in on this. There's a lot of talk about seasonality. There's a lot of talk about four-year cycles. So yes, you could make that argument and if everybody sees it, then it's not going to happen. But historically also I found that uh that it still often doesn't often does mirror prior cycles. Even if everybody's kind of aware of it or a lot of people are aware of it, it ends up still unfolding in a similar way. So that has to remain the default view. I give it an outside chance that it peaked on month 33. Uh, it's it's credible. It's certainly not zero. It's maybe 10 to 20% in that range. So, it's it's there, but I don't think from a an allocator of capital perspective, from somebody that's in the four-year cycle here, how at this point, given this structure, you'd want to sort of try and sidestep that on the eve of a possible move up. So, you want to hold that position. Obviously, anything below the 75,000 level, that's clearly, in my opinion, uh a bare market that's already well and truly unfolded. You'd want to make a decision at that point. And ideally, from being able to raise sort of this bare market stop point, what we want to see now is a push back to all-time highs in October that leaves behind this level and should result in a follow-through. Any follow-through that does not occur and rolls over, we I think that stop level is around that $100,000 level, giving you good protection from the downside in a bare market that would unfold in the 2026 time frame.

And then from a just a go perspective, again, we want to be just looking for blowoff moves to unwind positions. Absent of that, we want to give it a chance to keep unfolding. Okay? We can't hang our hat on 35 months having to be or 36 months in that time frame. Uh, a situation where we we just say that it must peak in that that period. It doesn't have to peak in that period. It can go to 42 months. It can go longer, just like in the next cycle. It doesn't have to go anywhere near 35. It can be extremely left translated and peak in 15, 18 months and then usher in sort of a bigger bare market. But that's that's for another time. The point being trying to illustrate that that 35, 35-month period where prior cycles have peaked is a guide in how a bull market unfolds, sort of 3 years up, 3/4 of the way up, one quarter of the way down. So we're focusing on that as the most sort of probable path here, but not one where we believe it must occur in that way.

So with that said, uh, that's the game plan. Stay humble, you know, try not to introduce too much bias into that. Let the price action unfold. Let the market try and tell us where we think we are and uh let's try and capitalize on this what I think will be the last move of this 4-year cycle. Wishing you all the very best. The next video may or may not be a video that says I think we've sort of peaked or at least I've I think we've got enough here. um, where we're not going to be greedy, that this is enough in this cycle where it makes sense to begin taking profit, whether it's some or majority or all, that will be determined at that time. So wishing you all the very best. Thanks for listening in and take care.