Transcription
Hey everyone, hopefully you're having a good day. My name is Andy. My channel's finding value. Today we're going to go through Twitter, see what people are sharing on social media. I'll interject my financial opinions as we go through it together, generally related to three different topics: wealth building, commodities, and/or financial topics. So, let's dive right in, take a look, see what's going on today.
And if you want to follow me, it's funny. If you want to join our community, finding.com where I dive deeper into all these sectors looking for investment opportunities and sharing those opportunities with everybody in the community. I share my strategies, my approaches, uh, the companies. I do that through midweek updates and question and answer sessions on the weekends. So, you can ask me directly if you guys have any questions or problems. Um, hey, look, what about this or what about that? We have a special coupon code where if you want to try it out, I would start with the monthly membership. It's 25 bucks for that first month. Try it out. If you don't like it, you spend a month and then you're done. That's no big deal. Uh, if you like it, you can also sign up for an entire year for 500 bucks and you can continue to get my insights, my picks, and to see what I'm doing with the commodity bull market we're in. Uh, so that is another option. And if you're already in a monthly membership and you want to swap to a yearly, yeah, go ahead and use that special coupon code.
Cole Grind says, "For all the investors out there that made more than 30% year-to-date in 2025, what helped you achieve that milestone?" Well, um, I know I'm, you know, I'll plug the website here again. It's not about my returns that matters. It's about the returns that people get within the community. If you are a part of the community, please put your uh return in the comment section below and you can see what real people in the community are getting for a return. Uh, if you want, you can also add how long you've been with the community uh on the website. Uh, I would say my personal returns, granted I haven't really tallied everything up. Uh, they were over 100%, I think this year would be my guess. Uh, the reason I'm guessing is I have a lot of precious metals, physical metals and silver and platinum though they had stellar years in those two. Uh, I know what my 401k got, which was at least it was like a week ago, 70% year-to-date return somewhere around there. And then my other accounts, which I've got like six different portfolios, uh, they vary between about 50 and 77%. So I, I was hanging around uh, that 50 to 100% area for myself. Now, I'm not all in on miners because we had some miners that just did crazy stuff. Um, I'm kind of spread across the the sectors and some portfolios, they did incredibly well. Um, and I haven't even looked at some of my like wife stuff that I control and they could be over 100% uh for the year as she's got more precious metals miners. She has some uranium in there and stuff like that. So, if you're if you're part of the community and you'd like to share your return, uh, go ahead and do it in the comment section here and you guys can see what people are getting.
Uh, CMA margin hikes don't scare me at all. They actually strengthen my silver thesis. Uh, so this is what they did back the last bull market in silver. They would hike, they would do margin hikes, and then they would control the price from moving up because they would just continue to mar, um, to raise the margins. Uh, the chart shows the one-year silver swap adjusted for interest rates. Uh, margin hikes hit futures traders, short-term speculators, and leveraged long positions. So, basically, they're forcing people to get out of positions as they hike margin requirements. Margin hikes can never touch industrial users who need physical me, uh, physical metal or silver companies stockpiling due to supply fears or long-term investors without leverage. In other words, margin hikes stop paper speculation, not physical demand. That's why I take the opposite view. Margin hikes are constructive. Higher margins, less paper, more stress revealed in the physical market. That stress is clearly visible in the silver swap. Is it clear now why I've been watching the silver swap every single day for months? So, he's just saying that uh, the margin hikes aren't going to maybe perhaps matter as much as they used to when we had uh sufficient silver supply. Now that the supply is eaten up, we'll see if these hikes matter or not. The hikes only impact the paper side of things. They don't impact the physical demand. So, I'm in the camp that we're early in this cycle. Uh, we've broken out of the 45-year cup and handle. We are just starting an increase in interest rates uh for the longer term. And that is where I think we're at. So, we'll see if these margin hikes matter or not. I don't think they are. I don't think they're going to matter. They might matter in the very short term, but long term, I don't think they're going to do anything.
And this is a, this is the cycle. Uh, one of the things that keeps us early, uh, or or a reason why I think we're early, uh, do not infer price levels from the cycle composite, the pink line. Peaks and troughs of the cycle composite estimate. Approximate cycle turning points. So this is the approximate cycle turning point in the 60s. That's where commodities outperformed. Then stocks outperformed. You can see the big movement in the S&P. And then we had another lost decade as it underperformed. The cycles there were at the peak of this cycle. Uh, I've been saying this for some years now that we're going to go into a lost decade where we're going to see underperformance uh of the S&P and the NASDAQ against commodities. I've said this a whole bunch. My message is still consistent. We're going to see that. Now, is this going to chop sideways like this one? Are we going to get more of a, I mean, this was a really long lost, like two decades. I don't know what this looks like. It could be for two decades. Who knows? Maybe it's a decade and a half, but I, I do think that that we're at the beginning of this cycle for commodities and precious metals to outperform. Uh, at the beginning of cycles, what you generally get is a big surge uh upwards of short, basically shorts covering. I think we're getting that right now in silver, gold, and platinum. Now, the extent of this cycle, how big it's going to be, I'm not sure. I, I think it's going to be absolutely massive. Like historic. Why is it going to be massive and historic? Because we're in an increasing interest rate environment versus this one back here. This was in a declining interest rate environment. So, when you look at some of these charts, uh, like let's just pull up an oil to S&P ratio. I'm just using this as an approximation. Um, actually, So, what I think is occurring is that here, let me, let me use another one. Let's do crude oil divided by SGX here. It's a little bit cleaner uh, because I don't have all that other stuff on it. So, the last cycle was this one, but we were in a declining interest rate environment and now we are putting in a double bottom and I think we're going to go upwards into a big bull market. Uh, when you're doing this in a declining interest rate environment, money doesn't want to rotate from bonds and it doesn't want to rotate from stocks uh, as much because interest rates are still going down. It, it puts a support underneath bond prices. So, last bull market uh, you can see here that we went sideways in the bonds here uh, and then we started going back up again. We didn't, we were in an increasing bond price environment. Uh, if you look at the long term, because we were going up, if you go way back here, it was going up, up, up, up, up and it was in a, in a big up cycle uh, from 19, from the early 1980s. Now that this is coming down, if and when interest rates get above 5%, and notice how we paused right at 5%. Almost like someone's holding it down to some extent. But if and when this does eventually break to the upside, and maybe we do a detour lower before going higher, uh, it's going to put extreme pressure on the stock market where selling pressure is going to hit the stock market. We're going to get a lost decade where we, we go sideways. It's coming from this, the the bond market. But we got to break out. We got to get above about 5%. Because that's when stocks go in the opposite direction of interest rates. So they're correlated. They both go up here. And then when it hits about 5%, notice how we paused right underneath 5%. QE, silent QE. If it breaks this way, that's when money starts to rotate out of not just bonds, but also stocks. And that's going to intensify the move in precious metals. I think that perhaps silver and these other ones are front-running that people are positioning for it, as you can see here with the large breakout of this 45-year cup and handle pattern. Absolutely ridiculously awesome. So that's the cycle. That's where we're at. Uh, breaking.
Former Fed chair Ben Bernanke says that silver short losses have likely been contained. Uh-huh. I'm sure they have. [laughter] Remember uh, the movie, was it like, I can't remember the name of the movie. It's the one with John Cusack in it. And Arnold says uh, "Don't panic." And then he responds with, "You panic when they tell you not to panic." Former Fed Chair Bernanke says the silver short losses have been contained. No, they haven't. Otherwise, they wouldn't be saying this. So, um, I, I bet you they're not contained. I like the way that Comex is helping keep paper gambling degenerates away from paper, gold, silver, and platinum all the way along their rise. So that's again, the margin hikes that these guys are doing. Uh, so margin increases effective Monday, December 29th for precious metals futures contracts. Gold up 10%, silver up 13.6%, platinum up 23% for the margin hikes. Remember, this is what used to slow down the move. So if they're doing margin hikes and we see a big move on Monday in gold, silver, and platinum, those margin hikes are becoming less effective. It's going to get really interesting to see what happens here because they hike margins when they try to slow down the price. That's what they, they're, they're trying to do. And we'll see if it works. I don't know. I'm excited to see uh, what the futures look like tonight. Uh, well, you guys are viewing this Monday. I'm taping it, recording it Sunday. Uh, breaking Google search interest where silver officially hits its highest level on record. The precious metals rally has gone mainstream and uh, I can attest to this because I heard people over talking about, I overheard some people talking about silver and I was like, "Oh, that's kind of interesting." I don't normally hear people talk about silver. Someone said that their grandma or their parents or something uh, went into a bunch of silver and I was like, "Oh, we must be getting uh, close to a consolidation." Whenever it hits mainstream, that's when you worry. But we're still early in the cycle. It doesn't mean that we're towards the end. It just means that people are FOMOing in. Uh, for sure. For sure. Coming up, uh, most silver stackers have endured so much slamming that they don't understand what's going on right now. The US and China are decoupling. The US isn't going to to ship cheap critical minerals uh, as silver to China like what it did in the past. All sovereign countries will be racing to grab critical minerals. Price suppression is going to take a backseat from this point forward. And that's that, you know, we've got the margin hikes that are above. We need to see how effective they are. If they're not effective, then more than likely, he's right. The price suppression is done. The paper market uh, is losing its grip on the physical price. So, and I think that's completely true. Don't get me wrong. I think it's 100% true. So, we'll see what it looks like and we'll see if they can, if they've got any more ammo left to try to hold down uh, gold, silver, and platinum. If they don't, I don't know what that means. Like, are we just going to rip and rip and rip and rip? Maybe. The US Mint is completely sold out of platinum coins and palladium coins. Gold and silver coins have been repriced at a massive premium to the spot price from 10 to 20%. Well, that's interesting. There goes the physical from the retail side. I guess DBB is updated. Copper, aluminum, zinc, nickel, and lead ripping higher. Breakout rippity rip rip rip is in full motion here. So, gold leads, everything else follows. Well, this is everything else following. Uh, some people will say, "No, it's only contained to gold and silver." No, it's not, guys. You're going to see these things rip like you've never seen before. Why? Because the money is in the system. It is just rotating. And then a lot of people will say, well, if they print money, you don't want to see that. No, no, no, no. They don't need to print money, guys. The money is in the system. Do you understand what I am saying? It is in financial assets. What I'm saying is when interest rates go up, when people are selling bonds, it's going to force money to rotate out of stocks as well at some point, roughly 5%. Interest rate on the 10-year. When that occurs, these will go vertical.
Now, we've been buying the bottoms of all of these sectors on the website. We've been literally buying the bottom. We bought, you know, precious metals miners at their bottoms. We bought uh, oil companies and energy service companies and coal companies and base metals like copper, nickel. We went around and bought speculative and and bigger companies. We got everything. We got the whole array covered. And this is going to take off. Now, I understand. I'm going to tell you what your worst enemy is. It's yourself. Your worst enemy is yourself. Why? Because you're going to want to fiddle with it. You're going to want to sell. Hey Andy, I'm up a 10-bagger. It's not time. It's not time, guys. We are just starting to turn. I am literally going to show you returns that are unimaginable to most people. Do you know what a 45, you know, a a 35 to 55% annual return for 10 years feels like? Most people don't. And when you get moving, when this cycle does turn completely and really engages, which we're right at the beginning of, this is part of the cycle turning here. That's part of the cycle turning. So, this is the time where we nailed the bottom in many sectors over the past few years. We accumulated. Now, it's time to reap the rewards of being patient, buying those bottoms. Now, there's still more bottoms out there to be had. Don't get me wrong, we're buying those, too. But it's the stuff that's lagging behind. Soon, these are all going to turn and start ripping. We're in that process. When it starts to move, the dynamic of human psychology will change. They're going to start chasing, guys. The chase is on. Cheetah's full run. Monster patterns exploding like silver. Copper's about to just absolutely ripity rip rip rip. See this thing starting to break out. This thing is going to rip and people, I don't know what to say. It's going to be, it's going to be all over the place. You're going to see copper rip. You're going to see soybeans, wheat, corn. They're all going to rip. Fertilizers are going to rip. The important thing is to understand where you're at in the cycle on the long term. Then it gives you the confidence to hold on onto these things. What you should be doing right now in my opinion is formulating a strategy and a plan. Do I have enough allocation here? Do I have this company here? Do I want dividends? What could the future dividends of a company look like? You know, those types of questions.
Says, "Here's why the entire financial debt system is teetering on a cliff. Systemic risk." Let's read this. Silver is the most, is one of the most leveraged commodities. Now, there is a mad rush for physical silver instead of paper. This massive demand is happening worldwide. They're gobbling up all the supply available because they understand this is the end of the fiat currency experiment that started on August 15th of 1971. Fiats are collapsing. This is the Hunt brothers on steroids because you have the entire world buying physical. The Hunt brothers got into trouble because they were buying paper contracts and Comex changed the rules. Comex can change any rules they want. It won't matter because the rest of the world is buying cash and carrying. They will not accept paper contracts. They want real physical metal. Here is where it gets both interesting and dangerous. What happens if the short sellers cannot deliver the silver promised? Mr. Gold says, "People say if they can't deliver." When that moment happens, it's game over for the entire financial system. Silver, and I believe it will be silver, and I will believe it will be silver that fails to deliver. Silver is the blasting cap to the gold nuclear bomb. When silver fails to deliver, then immediately there will be a pile into Comex gold and they will not be able to li, to deliver the gold. Once that happens, you have failures of contracts that have proven fraudulent. They are zeroed out and cannot perform. Then it spreads to cattle, pork bellies, grains, and you name it. This is not to mention the financials of stocks and bonds. Once you prove fraud in silver, that's going to spread to all the derivatives and we will have a derivative meltdown. The world wants gold and silver because those are the only two monies that cannot default. What you are seeing in the gold and silver market now is f, is far from a top. This is just getting started. Mr. Gold says, "Behind the scenes is a gigantic leverage derivatives market that is blowing up. It will bring down the entire system so that we can move back to a system of honest money that is decentralized and the people have the power." That derivatives time bomb is exploding and the short sellers who have suppressed and manipulated the silver price for many years are about to trigger the implosion of the entire crooked derivatives market. That's a good thing. These contracts are a zero-sum game. There's a winner and a loser. If the loser loses so big that they go belly up, then the winner becomes a loser because they can't get paid. That is the problem. When this actually hits and there is a failure to deliver, gold and silver will be wiped off the shelves and there will be none to be bought. This will be a run for safety. And fear is the greatest emotion there is. Fear is a far greater emotion than greed. This is going to turn into reverse bank runs into gold and into silver because they cannot default in a world that is defaulting. What you are witnessing is the end of trust. When you have the end of trust, the confidence breaks and the credit is forthcoming only when there is trust. Once confidence breaks, the credit markets will begin to seize up. When credit stops, it's game over. You will see markets, institutions, and stores shutter.
In his opinion, Willam says, "This epic silver rally might need some plus 20% days before a top is reached if history is any guide." And if you look at some of these moves, '79, '80, those were the top of the market. Now, I am not suggesting that we are at the top of the market. So, we're seeing people compare these big moves to a top of seven, you know, '79 and and 1980. I don't think so. Uh, I think this is just getting going. And here's the thing that I don't know. I don't know if we are in some sort of like hyperinflation or something like that. I, I don't know how to tell. I've never seen it, experienced it. Don't know. You know, you can read about things, but you, you still don't know if you're that frog that's inside the boiling water. Are, is that where we're at? I don't know. I mean, I, I would think so. Now, am I prepared for it? Yeah, I'm prepared for it, but I feel like I'm prepared for it. Um, I just don't know what the outcome is. Is it, how bad it will be? I, I don't know.
APMEX unilaterally hiked silver spot price to $80.59 on Saturday night. With markets closed, silver traders have asked us why silver spot prices are rising. Specifically, APMEX's silver spot price, which just jumped to $80.59. Usually, what this means, so typically major bullion dealers go long an estimated number of ounces across the metals ahead of each Friday's close. For example, 100,000 ounces of silver, 10,000 ounces of gold, 1,000 ounces of platinum, 200 ounces of palladium, etc. Either via long positions on the futures market ahead of the close or by placing physical metal inventory orders beyond their hedge metal position. Once a bullion dealer sells through its entire long position it obtained going into the weekend, they become exposed to the risk of silver prices rising immediately upon Sunday night's Globex open. APMEX raising their spot silver price by a buck 40 on Saturday night means that they have already sold through their entire weekend hedged position and any further ounces they sell are at spot risk of silver immediately gapping up on Sunday night's open. We have spoken to the top bullion dealers who report massive silver sales this weekend. We are assuming that APMEX didn't prepare properly for this weekend. They failed to hedge or source enough ounces of silver prior to Friday's close to make it through Saturday, much less the whole weekend. Have we already sold through its entire hedge silver position heading into the weekend? APMEX raised their ask spot price by a buck 40 an ounce to attempt to hedge their spot risk. SD Bullion is still selling silver tonight at spot $79.34. So that's kind of what people are speculating on why they raised it.
Um, I've got here, the race is on between platinum and silver. Can platinum outperform silver? What do you think? Uh, platinum did outperform silver 171% to 158%. Uh, for the year-to-date returns in 2025, which is massive. Uh, that's pretty crazy after I think about, I, that's a, I have a big position in those. This is platinum divided by silver. You can see we are in a falling wedge ready to break higher. When does silver, or when does platinum outperform silver? During inflationary periods. During inflationary periods. The cycle that we were looking at. Remember the peak of the cycle was 2008ish. That's over here. Silver outperformed towards the back end of that commodity bull market all the way down into this market condition. At the beginning of commodity bull markets. Remember we were at the peak of that cycle that I showed earlier. This is also in alignment at the bottom here. And when this breaks higher, that means you're starting that commodity bull market. Generally, at the beginning of commodity bull markets, platinum outperforms silver because platinum is more inflation-sensitive than silver. Just, just an FYI. And uh, there is silver, which has the big cup and handle and the breakout. What's crazy here is we could see silver run and we could see platinum run faster. That's kind of what we're seeing here in the race between the two. You know, one of the, one of the members asked me, you know, what's going to outperform for 2025, platinum or silver? I told them, I don't know, and that it would be a race. Well, there's the race. Platinum did outperform silver by a little bit. I would say that's pretty much immaterial at this point, but they raced. They did race. It's been a fun race and it's even a more fun race when you are massively participating in it in on both sides of this race. I bet on both platinum and silver to do very well. Put it that way.
Uh, holy crap, gold is really about to go on a generational dollar-denominated run, isn't it? It is. This is uh, this is the 1970 gold to S&P 500 ratio in the yellow or gold. This here, the orange one he has, it's a double bottom. If you know how to read the charts, that's going to break out and run higher. Here's the thing that I don't think people understand. They're comparing 2000 as the beginning. That isn't the beginning. That isn't. You know what the beginning is? 2020 era. That's the beginning. Why do I say that? I will show you. You take gold, you put it into say the N2 money supply. The reason I say that's the case is because up here is what we're comparing the peak. The bottom was right here in 20, uh, 2022 for money supply. The ultimate bottom is this whole area here. The start wasn't here. That's part of a double bottom. That's all part of a double bottom. So that's a double bottom there. And what else can we see? Gold when priced in the S&P is also in a double bottom. And we're breaking out of that double bottom right now. So what I am telling you is the conditions that gold go up in exist right now. We're just starting to come into those conditions. We're early on the double bottom phase because when we go through these cycles here, you create patterns. You generally get a three-wave up move or a five-wave up move. So, it's uh, wave one, two, three, four, and five. You create a top and then you come all the way back down and then you create like a double bottom or a shoulder, a head and a shoulder pattern. This shoulder head shoulder pattern would be a topping pattern in other sectors like financial assets. So, when we look at this and we go through that, this is your double bottom here. That's the bottom of the cycle. When you go look at TLT, this is the top. This is a shoulder head, shoulder topping pattern. And those two are flipped. And that's all I'm going to say right there because I go over a lot of this stuff on the website when you guys ask. This is where you gain the confidence. This is your top in financial assets and your bottom was what I was showing you. And that's, that's what you go into. And this, this here, people are trying to align things, but they're not aligning it correctly in my opinion. And that's all I've got for today. So we'll end it there. Give me a thumb up for the content. Subscribe to the channel. Subscribe to the website if you like. Special is the coupon code. And that's all I've got for today. So we'll catch you next time, guys. See you.