Transcription
Today's number, guys, well, there isn't just one. We've had a bank in the US fail. Silver and gold face some of the biggest sells ever recorded and a new Fed chair announced all in the same day. To make matters worse, we've now seen big news coming out over this weekend that includes potential for even more contamination. So, where do we need to be looking and what should we really be paying attention to? Join us as we cover stocks, commodities, and cryptos in a very special weekend video with a lot to talk about. Don't go anywhere, guys. Let's get into it right now.
Well, welcome back everyone to the special weekend edition of the Daily Show. My name is Thomas Atinson. Today we're discussing the macro, what Wall Street's been up to, and some massive darkpool trades that may have come a little bit earlier than some of these large moves. But we need to kick things off by talking about three major events. And you would think we're going into earnings, which we are, and we'll talk about as well in today's video. But really, we just saw some massive news came out on the Friday. And one of those was, of course, a US bank failure, which Poly Market picked up on. You can see here the massive spike to 99% chance. And that was of course news that the Metropolitan Capital Bank Trust has collapsed. Now, this is about $261 million. And on the surface of it, you might say, "Well, what what what does this mean? It's not really that important. It's not that much money." Well, as you'll find out, there's a few other bits of information starting to surface. And I did leave this video a little bit later here this weekend because the problem is is there's still information coming out. And I'm sure we'll have to do quite a lot of updates this week as this is of course going to be an evolving story. But remember when Jamie Diamond said, "If there's one cockroach, there's probably quite a few." Well, I tend to believe that as well, and this could be the beginning of something quite large.
Speaking of the beginning of something quite large, take a look here at the darkpool liquidity on both Silver Trust and of course, SIVR. One was a sweep, one was a large Darkpool, which for anyone that doesn't know, these are basically large transactions done between two entities. And sweeps in particular, such as this one here, are generally done very quickly. So, somebody wasn't feeling that silver price. And since then, we've seen, I think, the biggest monetary collapse ever in silver. And of course, a massive percentage drop, which we'll talk about in a minute what the stats mean for that. But, uh, yeah, that was pretty big. Another one that's been going around is this particular thing here, which is from Weimar X, which is I think Defi W over on X. And basically, it says here that the silver dump uh there was supposedly a large transaction done here. And you can see the monster transaction and where it was placed around that demand zone. And I think you know whether this I don't know I can't really verify it that much but some people say it's verified. Um the main thing out here is it's showing the technical level. And I think the important thing is we need to make sure that we always think about all of this stuff like we do on this channel that technical levels do matter and that often big transactions are done at these zones. So you can see here there may be some shenan shenanigans I guess going on in that market. For for sure though we did see some dark pulls that placed at the top. So now we've got something going on at the bottom and that could help to stabilize of course what was an epic liquidation event on the Friday move. And I hope you guys were kind of safe out there. We've been talking about the call volumes going through the roof. Obviously euphoria, the possibility that it could go anywhere cuz of course it could go really really high but um that it wasn't looking that attractive riskreward.
Let's have a look now at silver. According to Blue Curtic, and I've also know this as well, that since of course the 1970s, we've really never seen this before. And after the 1970s drop, silver actually lost 68% in the following 12 months. So this is a significant massive drop. And it does show up in the statistics that we've been talking about, which is that when silver goes ballistic, more so than when gold goes ballistic, it could be the cracking of the financial system as we know it. And this is a really big concern that we have to continue to watch because we're now in some unprecedented times. A lot of people of course attributing this to the new Fed chair which we'll talk about in a moment. But guys, this is a fairly big event. And again, it's no real surprise probably to people that have watched this videos for a long time. By the way, if you're new here, subscribe to the channel because we have been talking about gold and silver for years now and there's always one of these massive shakeouts. The question now, which hopefully we'll be able to talk about more in the upcoming videos and today, is will we see a recovery in these medals? Because of course, has the market possibly got it wrong a little bit on what they think about the new Fed chair. I'd be interested to know your comments down below and what you think as well.
So, going back to 1985, we have never seen a 90-day gold run as strong as we came into this. So, that of course shows euphoria. And as always, it's easier seen in hindsight than it is during the point. But that darkpool trade, wow, that sweep was massive. And I um yeah, if we had that one a little bit earlier, it would have been sweet. Let's have a look here at Silver ETF. You can see uh Subu Trade obviously put this out. We've been talking about this expanding and going to the highest ever. And you can see here 3.6 million calls were open coming into this crash. So again, people were absolutely going crazy on the FOMO. And that was actually leading into some other big problems as well which is an evolving story which is uh that they supposedly there's a Shenzhen gold trading platform which you can see here JWR that is reportedly facing a liquidity crisis and investors say withdrawals are blocked protests are following and police are intervening and this is a a loss estimate compared to the bank that we just saw between 1.4 4 billion to maybe even $19 billion. And of course, uh this is a pretty wild story. And for context, FTX, which you guys probably remember, landed in around the 8 to10 billion size. So, this could be just the beginning of what we end up finding out is quite a few of these types of events, and it has led people into the crowded trade, but the opposite side.
So, this is where it comes into this new Fed chair. And of course betting on a weaker dollar hits u a record premium which is from macro charts and Bloomberg here. And as we often say when something becomes crowded and becomes the popular opinion which of course effectively everyone was starting to worry about the the ability for fiats to hold up then all of a sudden 2 seconds later where are we? Well of course we're going in the opposite direction. So this is an evolving story as well, but I do think that we need to be basically discussing the idea that maybe the dollar will hold this zone. Remember, it hasn't quite broken underneath the key level. And it's more important to now look at maybe what's going on in some of the other metals markets and commodities markets, particularly oil, which we've been focused here for quite a few months. And oil maybe just like the barrels maybe the last week or so. Now on to the weekend futures. What's going on? Well, we do have some information of course coming in here. These aren't necessarily 100% accurate, but this is what's been happening. We're down about.57% on the NASDAQ. We're down.33% on gold and and we had a low of 4,800 there during the weekend futures and barrels were down about 79%. Uh so the US oil barrel about $65 a barrel. So basically, we've had a little bit of decline over the weekend, but no real falls other than what's happened in Bitcoin and crypto.
Let's now talk about the new Fed chair because this is a huge component. So Kevin Walsh obviously coming in and his kind of motto seems to be I'm going to, you know, I guess focus on inflation a lot, not cut as many times. Obviously, the market thought there'd be maybe a huge cutter coming in. we might cut you know upwards of five six times. So that was definitely taken off the board to a degree here. And then of course we also have somebody that believes that AI is going to create the growth and therefore stop inflation. And I think that's one of the big concepts here. Now according to Anna Wong, she's gone through and actually had a look at this guy and figured out kind of what he said at different points. And it's interesting. And she actually says here, here was a chart. Uh here we chart his inflation assessment during the FOMC meetings from 2006 2011 along with the unemployment rate and core PCE inflation in the background. One standout was in April 2009, 7 months after the Lehman of course incident, core PC inflation was at8% and unemployment was at 9%. Okay. and he said, "I continue to be more worried about upside risks to inflation than downside risks." So, uh, yeah, this is going to be a very interesting, uh, new Fed chair. And, of course, he's also going to take away some forward guidance. The markets can start to potentially act very, uh, volatile off those things. So, it's really falling into that midterm election year as well in many ways because remember, the Fed's kind of told the market everything that they're doing. Well, he might be moving away from that.
Guys, this is an evolving story. I've got a lot to talk to you about this week and uh of course what I want to bring you first was the story here which is that the market is claiming that maybe we're not going to get inflation. Well, I think we need to watch the yields more than anything else because the yields are not necessarily going to be telling that same story. And I still think that even though everyone's panicking and dumping off gold, silver, and everything else, that that's an unwind of already a FOMO bet. So, it's going to be a very key level here, especially what we hit on silver. Uh, when we start looking at the charts, Goldman Sachs, US Financial Conditions Index, we knew it was the calm before the storm. We've been talking about this several times over the last couple of weeks that nobody thought there was any worries and that everyone was extremely bullish. So, why is that big? Well, what happens now is that we've got some volatility in this market. Obviously, extreme volatility in the metals unwinds. Let's put in perspective, though. It's only gone back a few weeks on how much it was gaining. And now we have a new Fed chair. So from Blue Curtic here, you can see that most Fed chairs end up actually creating a bullish run over the next year. However, there was one that didn't, which is of course Alan Greenspan, and he had a max draw down of around 19.6%. So here's the trackers. This is what usually happens. And I think the interesting thing about this is it can be kind of not like you know extreme gains over the next year when you get a new Fed chair. So I think that's interesting. I mean some are this is 47% obviously it's huge but there are quite a lot of you know middling ones. Um and you know I think it's I think the thing is more recently uh is what we're looking at here. 3.35% from PAL and then of course we'll see what happens next. So couple of double digits both ways. main main thing I'm looking at is whether we're going to have continual contagion from what just happened and more importantly what he's going to do which is maybe shrink the balance sheet because if he shrinks the balance sheet he's betting on AI then he's betting on a chart like this which basically means that we have got open AI basically spending around $1.4 $4 trillion in the economy uh by 2033. Now, this is going to be of course a massive spend and he's betting on this effectively helping the economy big time. And I don't know how you guys feel about AI. Obviously, I think it is the future, but at the same time, usually whenever you've got a new tech, it has this boom period, it has a bottleneck of some sort that causes a problem, then you go down a little bit and then often it comes back kind of like a phoenix reborn after that. Remember the internet? That was the same kind of thing.
Let's now have a look at the Bank of America bull bear spread. We already knew it was getting extended in January of 26. So, no surprises that we started to see a little bit of volatility come through. And we also know that the double aouble eye bull bear spread according to duality research did also um show that there was a bit of a tick up in people being a little bit bullish on this and that can sometimes bring V with it. In fact, back in 2023, it was instantly kind of selling the market, but it ended up being very, very bullish after that. So, of course, we'll see. January is also closed, guys, which means we can lock in a couple of January stats. Now, this weekend, I was going to talk about all the January stats put together, but I don't think that's the major story here right now. We'll discuss that at a later point. The big thing is though that generally when January is positive, which it was, you do tend to have a pretty good year. 87% of the time the markets are actually up. So I know it seems like it's diabolical right now, but in many ways u it could still just be a volatility shakeout event, which is very common in midterms. You just don't usually see those moves on silver.
Commodity prices, as we know, they've been breaking out from historically holding for quite a few years. And according to Jurian Timmer here, you can see that these breakouts are, I think, are fairly significant. and I don't really expect them to necessarily stop. And one of the things that we've been looking at here has been actually the energy sector which held pretty pretty well through all of this. And we've seen a lot of stocks go up in the energy sector over the last couple of months. And actually that sector um yeah did did all right off all of this stuff that's been going on. In terms of earnings this week, do remember there's still some big ones. We've got AMD, Super Micro, Chipotle on Tuesday after the close. We've got Alphabet, so Google, Amazon still coming. They've been mixed so far. Obviously, Microsoft got sold. Continue to watch the mags code which we look at later on. And these are some of the expected moves. So, you can see AMD, look at Super Micro. It's expected to move upwards of 13%. Palanteer 10 to 11%, guys. That's going to be another big one we'll have to watch. AMD, I mean, this is jam-packed, guys. This it just doesn't get bigger than this. I mean, I'm laughing because we've been in this market so long together. Yeah. And I've done this for quite a long time as well, you know, back since the global financial crisis. And the thing about all these markets is the thing that makes me laugh about is like we always do the same things, but at the same time it's always a little bit different. So coming into this earning season, we knew we had to focus on these earnings, but then all of a sudden you get this curveball of the new Fed chair announced. Okay, we knew that, but then it starts to create monster moves uh that we're we're seeing now on the on the medals. So um yeah, make sure to sub, guys, cuz there's a lot coming this week.
Uh what about the big dark pulls on the old crypto market? One that has not been good recently. Well, turns out HODL uh did get a monster trade on it. Now, since then, it's actually dropped further and we'll talk about that later. But near the close, a massive trade did occur and that was right at these lows. And since then, of course, it's dropped a little bit more. You can see it was kind of like this monster trade down here. Now, it still could be a buy uh and we we'll of course need to watch this price action. But as we mentioned in the last video, there was unfortunately just no break up uh in in Bitcoin. So, as soon as it wiped that 86 again, it was just on to selling and it's gone to that next support line. Did I think it was going to be there that quickly? No. But then, of course, when you drop 30% on silver in a day, uh anything can happen. Let's have a look here at where we are. I think we're in extreme volatility periods. Up, down, up, down, up, down. Very good traders year. probably a little bit scarier for people that are uh maybe invested because you're going to get a lot of headlines and as we often say if it's in the press it's in the price and that's what we were getting on those medals everyone was discussing it including the taxi driver or Uber or whatever including the person in the elevator you know people were pretty aware of the medals move S&P in time now it's still dull uh it's still popping up here there's still a decent advanced decline line it's actually not looking shocking but obviously V's in it a little bit here and you can see here uh the futures was the same thing. So realistically it's still actually a bullish market and we need to keep that in mind. We didn't see the biggest market you know that that the stock market fall off. We saw a liquidation of several other asset classes. And one of the things that we need to really keep in mind here is the way that the mags go so generally does the index. So if the mags drop this level down here guys which is about 62 that's going to be a huge deal. It's a big chart to watch and continue to watch MAGS versus SPY as we see earnings come out this week. So, we'll be tracking that as well because obviously we make a new low then we got problems.
Let's now have a look at the bonds market. Now, I'll try to bring you uh the gamma levels in the next video if I can. I'm just trying to get that updated. But basically, you can see here that the overall bonds market did already spike a little bit in terms of risk, but when you when you think about this, it was nothing. So, the bonds indicator is not necessarily freaking out just yet. I expect this to go up quite a lot now that we've seen a bank go under, but um it depends on what kind of contagion is actually out there. And one of the things you'll want to be looking at as well is corporate bonds. You know, what's happening with corporates? What's happening with high yield junk? Are they taking out lows? Like this level in particular, this 80 zone, it hasn't been taken out. So, therefore, it's not really like the bonds market is flinching just yet. What we are seeing is a lot of dollar currency moves. Another thing that you want to be checking out, guys, is going to be yields, which we'll look at in a moment.
So, let's check out the dollar. The instant reaction to this was, of course, pretty bullish for the dollar and bearish for metals. I'm not sure it's actually going to be long-term bearish for metals, by the way. I think it was a it was literally an attack on on quite a lot of uh longs, especially those ultra calls that we saw. Uh but the dollar did manage to spike back up against this last level and it ended up doing something that I think was you know interesting which was that the monthly didn't close lower. Uh so a lot of people are going to be looking at this for that long-term trend line. A lot of people would have been preempting this short and I think as I said in the last video it hadn't quite done enough for me and this is why you know experience sometimes does count in these markets. You guys have that as well. I know. Uh which is that you just have to kind of confirm things a little bit and understand when something is really crowded and it comes down to that level often the something totally left of field comes out completely reacts to it. We'll be watching the dollar particularly from the upside as well. And I'm not saying it can't drop. We don't know that yet. But we do know that there are going to be quite a lot of shenanigans here. These are big levels that can lead into multimonth moves. So we're watching very closely. US dollar Swiss as well. One of the biggest hedges in the world you can see ended up spiking up but still more money moving into the Swiss Frank and the other one is always going to be the US dollar yen uh which actually fully rebounded pretty much the entire week of drops. So very interesting to see that and again showing that you can't write the US dollar off just yet when it comes to all these markets.
US 10year as well watch the 10-year watch the 20 year the 30 year up. You can see here that the 2-year actually dropped off a little bit and that's basically betting on the a few cuts coming for sure. Uh however, what most likely is going to happen is because of the reducing of the balance sheet as well and the reliance on AI really pulling through this economy. This is going to be a huge focus and and I think the short yield and the long yield are going to look very different by the end of 2026. So again, we watch that and we focus a lot on uh actually this market which was already showing it. So clearly someone knew this as well. Maybe you guys did cuz we were looking on the price action and that was oil. Oil actually had an a good day. It actually was up on the session and this is kind of the breakout star at the moment. We've seen energy stocks and and and oil doing a little bit better. You can see here energy stocks actually ended up weekly up uh which is a pretty interesting chart in itself and it closed to a multi-year high. So, you know, often we say this, you know, we had some crossorrelation going on on the metals, all kind of hitting levels, including copper, and then they all shorted off, such as gold, copper, all of these things. But to put it in perspective, we're still only halfway down on what the gains were on gold for the month of January. So, you can see here it went all the way up and then kind of lost half of it. So, yes, these are massive moves. Yes, these are very concerning moves and we have to keep pulling stats from them, but it is kind of, you know, what you would expect after these big ones.
Have a look here at silver though. It kind of nailed into this level and at the start of the video I had this zone and the two zones I was looking at particular with 90 which is of course strong demand and here and it just goes to show strong technicals are very important. Now, if that JP Morgan stuff is real, uh, then of course this could be a flaw as well for for silver. And to just put in perspective, the drop here is 39% uh from top to bottom. Now, did we get the signs before that? Well, I often say when volatility enters, that is a sign that someone knows something and they've gone, you know what, near enough's good enough. All good. And it did happen. We did get the normal bounce. We went higher, which is, you know, scary because of course this is where a lot of people are going to get trapped and then it's dumped off. Did I expect that dump? No, not that quickly, but uh certainly is something that's a little bit concerning. But I do think that base floor looks pretty interesting. So, we'll watch and and and of course, as we say here on the channel, patience, react, and predict. I think there's going to be a bit of structural creation here on silver and gold and a lot of big moves uh coming this week.
Chinese market did break out, obviously, closed higher. So that's still good and it still looks pretty bullish on the charts. Emerging markets dropped quite significantly off the precious metals and all metals kind of moving around. You can see that EM actually did drop uh quite a lot after being on a massive rally. So we'll watch how that plays, but still the stock market's pretty much holding. Tesla still holding between 420 guys and 460, which we know is kind of the two major levels for it. Mags, well, we know what it's doing. And in terms of the big uh tech stocks, we saw Meta drop about three, but things like Nvidia actually held pretty well in the day. And do remember the barometer of the new economy as we call it is semiconductors. So we haven't we haven't lost semis. And we're also looking at semis versus spy to see if there's any drops there. There just hasn't been at this stage. Meta, as you can see, kind of got very close. Some people call that a gap close because it gapped to the wick. So yeah, congrats if you got that out, I guess, at that point. Uh but you know it's not exactly looking horrific on the charts, is it? And neither is the NASDAQ. It's still technically making a series of higher highs. This was an equal high and we do not have of course a new break high on the futures. So we'll watch that one. And if we take a look at IWM, which is the small caps, uh that has a lot of regional banks. So I think we need to watch that. Regional banks, it was dropping off a little bit more. And if we go to KRE, which is regional banks, you can see here, I think this is the focus coming into this week as well. Are we going to continue to see financials underperform? Because they've actually been doing it. They spiked a little bit here to the spy, but I'm looking at ratios such as this. So, we'll be we'll be focused in on that.
Now, let's move over to Bitcoin. So, we got a mass liquidation down to 78. Pretty key level here around that zone. Uh so whenever we drop this 78 to uh 75 was the next level. Bit of a bounce but yeah will look at look at Ethereum down at 2400 and then of course a huge support at 68. So a lot of you guys were like looks like crap on the chart Tom. Yeah I mean it obviously did when it dropped this again 86 unfortunately was the zone that we spoke about. We couldn't make the higher high. I think things could have been very different if we got through here. But as soon as it dropped this, this level and this level become the next keys. And if we drop the 78, I think we may swipe into the 68s and that would be yeah uh that would be a big move. So obviously we'll watch that. A lot of people are going to be using lengths such as this guys and they'll be like look at this movewise and then they'll pull that and obviously they'll they'll get these types of levels. So I understand why that level will make some sense as well. Too early to tell if this short is over at this stage of course. it just looks bad on the chart and it's found the next kind of equilibrium zone. And Ethereum also dropped the low. You take that as a flag length and you're going to be back down in 1400 territory technically. So, it's uh it's one that we're of course evolving and watching too. But, um yeah, no breakouts from these mini bull levels uh that we had up in this area here and of course, Bitcoin zone. And for now, we need to wait for structure. So, structure, structure, structure. And I saw a lot of posts about this on the weekend as well uh while I was doing some research for this video.
So guys, how do I summarize this? Well, it's history of course being made once again. I'll have an update. I'll have a live stream for the Monday open, so make sure to watch that because that's going to be a big event uh as we get the futures open and we see how this thing is playing out. We did of course know that medals were very crowded. We were much earlier on medals years ago for gold. last year of course for silver, platinum, platium. So, it's probably no surprise that big guys were doing a little bit of trading and manipulating potentially for those massive call options. I don't know if it's systemic though yet because what you're generally looking for is if the bonds market and the stock market are freaking out, then it's a worldwide systematic, you know, massive massive failure line. I think what this is is a massive shot across the bow. So, just like we've been mentioning, 2026 is a midterm year. It is a volatile year. It is going to be a year where we have to cut through everything to try to figure out realistically is this just more of the same from the last couple years. But I think this new Fed chair, I really think there's a massive change here coming. So guys, we continue to watch. We continue to find the abundance profiles. That is that there is always another opportunity. And I think you've seen it again the last couple of weeks just with the fact that oil broke out all of a sudden and it was a new one. And of course, we we had caution on the on the silver gold. And I do still like both of those on the macro side long term. But yeah, I think it's going to take a little bit to play out. Guys, thanks so much for watching. Have a great week. Hopefully you're okay and safe out there. And um remember to set those alerts. Bye for now. Ciao.