Transcription
Hello everyone, welcome to VRIC Media, your most trusted voice in metals and mining. I am your host Daryl Thomas and today we have the pleasure of sitting with Peter Bvar who is the CIO, the chief investment officer of One Point BFG Wealth Partners. How you doing today, Peter?
>> Good, Daryl. Thanks for having me on.
>> Yes, for sure. So, let's start with just getting your overall outlook on the markets. I mean obviously we have the Schiller Schiller PE ratio uh that is uh showing that some a lot of these stocks are overvalued. We have the Buffett indicator showing that stocks are overvalued. And then we have these dynamics of the recent job numbers being revised. Uh tariffs, things of that nature. There's so many things for investors to factor in. And so I want to get your perspective on what are what are you looking at? What are the main things that you are factoring in into your positioning? um and just kind of get your perspective there.
>> Well, when it comes to valuations, uh valuations don't matter until they do, and when they do, we just don't know. Uh valuation, the market's been expensive for years, but it hasn't mattered. Uh and when it'll matter, I'm not sure. Uh I I think the market right now has been riding this wave of two things. the AI tech trade got a second wind after it got knocked on the deepseek news in late January. And number two, everyone's been trained for the past 20 plus years to buy stocks when the Fed is cutting interest rates. Rather than analyzing why the Fed is cutting interest rates, that does not matter in this kind of moment. It's buy stocks because the Fed's cutting interest rates. Now, at some point, if the economy continues to weaken, because the Fed is clearly raising, I'm sorry, cutting interest rates because they're worried about the softening labor market. If that labor market continues to weaken and it threatens the economy, well, then it doesn't make any sense to be buying stocks if the Fed further cuts uh because that would then negatively impact earnings as we saw in the early 2000s and 2007208.
So overall the US economy in the first half of the year averaged 1.4% growth. Uh second half of the year we'll have to see right now estimates I've seen are between 2 and 3% for the third quarter annualized. Uh if you merge that with the first half of the year you know you're just under 2% type growth. Uh tariffs I think have been uh a drag on growth. But on the other hand uh this AI data center buildout has been a tremendous booster of growth. Upper income spending has been a big booster to growth, but lower to middle income spending has been a a drag on growth. Manufacturing has been a drag. Housing's been a dragged. So, it's kind of this strange uh economy with parts of the economy seeing growth, parts of the economy seeing recession. Uh but back to the stock market, the stock market's being driven by uh the dominance of that AI tech trade. And um but finally, you know, some other stocks are beginning to work because again, the Fed is cutting interest rates. But um it's kind of a weird moment to be honest. Uh and we've also seen tremendous outperformance in international markets after many many years of underperformance and it's an area that we're particularly exposed to and pretty bullish on.
>> Okay. Yeah. Thank you for sharing that perspective. So, someone may argue that, okay, when the Fed starts cutting interest rates, they typically do that before the market takes a downturn. And so, right now, we're seeing a lot of um uh bullish um performance before the Fed has has cut rates again. But, you know, just thinking about historically when the Fed cuts rates, you know, whether that be in, you know, um, whatever that be in 2008 or or in in 2000, typically people will point to that as as like, okay, this is history going to repeat itself. But it seems like the markets have structurally changed in a lot of ways. And so, I want to get your perspective there.
>> Well, in two in in September 2007 when the Fed first cut interest rates, the stock market went to an all-time high in October 2007 because they thought, "Hey, the Fed's cutting, everything will be fine. You got to buy stocks." Um, we know what happened after that. So, I don't think investors should use the reason the Fed is cutting to blindly buy stocks. buy stocks if you think the companies you're you're you're buying of good fundamentals and attractively valued. But you know this blind, okay, the Fed is cutting and everything's going to be fine. Maybe it will be. Uh but the point of with ' 07 to point out in the early 2000s is just to point out it that it doesn't always work and that if the Fed is cutting interest rates because the economy is becoming challenged uh then you actually don't want to be buying stocks. Whereas if the Fed was cutting interest rates because inflation was further decelerating, well that would be a positive reason for rate cuts. But instead, inflation's stuck at three. And we know the Fed is cutting because the unemployment rate is going up. In fact, the U6 unemployment rate, which is an all-encompassing unemployment rate, uh is at 8.1%. That's the highest in I think se since 2021, late September 2021. So, uh I I think it's one of those things, be careful what you wish for if the economy further weakens from here.
>> Yeah. So many folks have been saying over the past couple of years that they were fearing recession or that we were going into a recession. And recently we had the huge job numbers uh revision. And you just mentioned the uh U6 um unemployment rate which shows that um obviously unemployment is is looking at 2021 levels and so and there were multiple indicators in the last couple of years uh leading economic indicator the uh purchasing managers uh manufacturers um indicators and such that were showing like we were in recession territory but u that wasn't what we were really experiencing. seeing in the markets and obviously the the numbers that were coming out of the BLS uh were not uh confirming that. And so uh are we are we looking at so typically whenever we go through a recession we do see the government begin to backtrack and look look at former data and say like okay yeah we went through a recession there. Is that kind of what you're thinking here or or what do you think we're at in this in this particular ball game?
>> Well, I mean, I think as I said, there there are parts of the economy that have been in recession for the last couple years. I mean, the housing has been in a recession. Existing home sales are at a level that we saw in 1995 when the population was much smaller than it is today. Manufacturing, that recession has been going on for two and a half years. But on the flip side, the AI data center buildout has been so powerful that it's helped a variety of different sectors and not just Nvidia or Microsoft. If you make steel, you're benefiting from the data center buildout. If you make electrical conductors and transformers, you're benefiting from the data center buildout. If you build if you make cement, you're benefiting from that buildout. Uh so that buildout has been just extraordinary. uh where we know the big hyperscalers could spend $300 billion this year. Uh and upper income spending has also kept the economy uh afloat on its shoulders and so has been a massive amount of government spending which is reflected in the budget deficit relative to GDP that's almost 7%. That by the way I do think that that fiscal impulse will is is in the process of slowing down. So that's something to watch. But on the flip side, maybe this decline in interest rates and and and if mortgage rates can stay lower, if the 10-year yield can stay lower, unlike it did last year when it rose after the Fed cut, maybe we can get some lift and loosening in the housing market. We hope so, particularly for firsttime home buyers. Uh housing is a significant contributor to economic growth. The the National Association of Homebuilders estimates that everything involved in housing, whether you're building a house or uh remodeling a house or you're a real estate broker or a lawyer uh doing real estate closings or you're entitled insurance person, whatever. Uh that's 15 to 18% of of US GDP. So, it's significant. So I think to bottom line your question uh growth has been very mixed and um with with with pluses and minuses uh you know the old saying we're we're running on all cylinders. The economy is well the economy is running on some cylinders and and not on others. And uh I I think that's the state of play here. And you know I I didn't mention global trade is relatively muted. uh capital spending x the AI buildout has been flatlining uh to you know to add more uh sort of information to my point of it being a very uh uneven economic situation right now.
>> Okay. Yeah. Thank thank you for sharing that. Uh so just thinking about AI data centers and the build out there. Uh we've seen AI data centers uh many of these stocks you know just have roared significantly. uh any type of technology company um that has uh those those are typically roaring as far as like their performance um I'm thinking of some companies in related to the nuclear industry and such. Um but when you look at the commodities like natural gas which is going to be a significant portion of uh really energizing this this new AI revolution as well as uranium and such and and I just kind of want to get your outlook there on commodities because it seems like uh the companies that are pledging you know this uh billions of dollars to uh build out AI data centers as well as some of the technology companies um that are involved in some of these energy new energy reactors and things of that nature have been seeing um been catching a bit but when it comes to like the natural gas the the actual commodity that's needed to to supply the energy for AI and such it seems like those have been lagging and so I I just want to get your perspective there.
>> Well, uh I'm very bullish on natural gas and and oil. uh we're long a bunch of stocks in that space uh as an expression of that. Um you know natural gas is still yes the demand side is is pretty linear and and and pretty solid uh uh but you know you still have uh plentiful supply uh that is that is feeding into that demand. I still think that natural gas prices will go higher over the next couple years, but that's one of the factors why natural gas is not necessarily exploding here on the upside because the supply side's been okay. Oil prices in the low60s um actually mid60s now I think is dirt cheap. And I I everywhere I turn there's a bear on oil prices. And I don't know, I look at it on the flip side and think that oil prices in the mid60s is dirt cheap and that we've had uh all these OPEC uh production quota increases and oil prices have stopped going down which tells me that the im the inventory situation is tighter than people think and a lot of the quota increases are just catching up to what production levels were already at. Uh I think the US oil rig count uh has fallen steadily. It's it's ticked up the last couple weeks, but still hovering near multi-year lows. I think US oil production is this year flattening out and next year could actually be down. Uh so I think we're we're setting ourselves up for a pretty nice rally in oil prices. Not sure where it goes in the upside, but I wouldn't be surprised if we saw something into the 80s. Uh and uh so we're we're pretty bullish. I I I there's a there's a there's a definitely pretty bearish sentiment out there, which is exactly what I like about buying it. With uranium, we've been bullish on long uranium for since 2018. So, we're there. And uh that's been an exciting uh sort of renaissance that the industry is experiencing. And it didn't start with uh the data center buildout, which certainly is now heavily reliant on 24 hours, 7-day a week power that's uninterruptible, and it just happens to be the cleanest form of consistent base load power. But even before that, people realizing that, hey, if you want to um the real renewable energy is nuclear. It's the best kind uh because you don't need battery backup. Uh, you know, that's the problem with wind and solar is that it's it's intermittent and uh you need enormous amounts of batteries to to to make it consistent where where nuclear uh is is is probably the most efficient form of of energy production and uranium went years of major supply demand imbalances and even now is still in a supply demand imbalance. So we remain long um a bunch of uranium producers.
>> Yeah. Yeah, it seems like um a lot of these stocks are are hated and uh they are definitely the contrarian bet. I mean uranium
>> well uranium is not as hated that those these stocks have had great runs but we I do think there's still upside in the price of uranium on a per pound basis.
>> Yeah. Yeah, for sure. And um yeah, some some of the uranium a lot of the uranium stocks have have rallied but
>> but oil and gas to your point is is is has really lacked.
>> Yeah. And so compared to like the last commodities bull run uh from the 2000s to about I think it was 2011 when um when uh gold uh peaked and and such and I think oil may have ran until about 2013 or 14.
>> peaked at $150 in 2008 uh was it was its uh nominal peak.
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>> I do want to get your outlook on gold. I mean gold has been rising significantly. Obviously central banks have been uh buying and and that was creating um suspected to create a floor for the price of gold. Um people are uh wanting to preserve their purchasing power and gold has uh significantly proven that point that it does uh preserve purchasing power. And so uh the miners have started to wake up. they've they've been running I mean they're they're at pretty much nominal highs since uh 200 2008 2011 and such when you look at some of the um ETFs like the GDX and such and so I want to get your perspective on gold.
>> So talking my book uh we've been long gold and silver for a while. Sorry lights in my office went off. Uh so and I remain very bullish on both. uh gold really caught a bid after uh the EU and the EU and the US uh froze half of Russia's central bank reserves and punishment for their invasion of Ukraine. And that woke up a lot of different countries around the world and their central banks to own less dollars and own more gold. Uh so we saw coming into this year um I think it's three years in a row of of of central banks buying uh a thousand plus metric tons of of gold. Uh this year is on a slower pace but part of that is because of the higher price uh in terms of actual tonnage but um I think that that that gold is still uh an important central bank asset. uh we've started to finally see retail participating and you can see that in uh the increase in uh ETF holdings uh of gold and gold's becoming also an important uh settlement asset uh for those countries that are now transacting and important things like oil and a products in currencies other than the dollar uh so uh I think in the short term uh it's it's probably due for a correction bold. Uh, and I acknowledge that. I I think it people are getting a bit too giddy. Uh, and I think it may need some digestion to recharge its batteries. I still think the bull market's intact, but fully acknowledge that a pullback can come at any point. And it very well could come uh the day of the Fed meeting if J. Powell is is more hawkish than than the markets are anticipating.
>> Yeah. Got it. And so, uh, right now we're in this environment where gold, you know, is obviously at an all-time high measured in dollars. Uh, I think it just, uh, beat its inflation adjusted, um, peak um, and such. And then also, um, just looking at I mean, silver, silver's at, you know, 42 to $43 an ounce and such. Um, I mean, it's still off of its all-time highs. It definitely not close to its all-time highs. adjusted for inflation and such.
>> silver would be 200 if you adjusted it for inflation.
>> Wow. 200
>> for the 1980 uh peak of 50 bucks.
>> Wow. So do do you think that there's u more upside in silver than gold? Uh which is what's kind of your perspective there?
>> Uh yeah, I do. Um gold still has I believe a nice amount of upside but silver could have more uh because it is so bad badly lagged uh the price of gold. Um part of that is uh half of the demand for silver is is industrial and I said earlier manufacturing not just in the US but around the world has been in a recession for a couple years but we are in a supply demand deficit in silver just as we are also in platinum which I'm bullish on in long. Uh so I think all these metals uh have potential upside from here. But again I I I do want to say I do expect a pullback at any moment and maybe the Fed meeting is the catalyst for that pullback because everything has been melting up here expecting uh Jay Dovish Powell to show up. Uh but um I'm not so convinced that he's going to be so dobbish because inflation remains still stuck at around 3%. And while he wants to cut because of the softening of the labor market, uh I think he's going to temper market expectations unless inflation decelerates from here.
>> Okay. Yep. Gotcha. Okay. So, just thinking about I mean obviously S&P, Dow, NASDAQ, you know, they they're running at all-time highs as well. Um, is this typical with with with gold and the S&P running at all-time highs together? Like it it kind of seems uh um it kind of seems weird to me, especially when I look back at the charts and such. And so, just want to get how you how you're processing that.
>> Yeah, somewhat. In the 1970s that gold bull market did well better than stocks. Then from 1980 to 2000 stocks crushed gold. Um I mean gold went from in over 20 years went from 850 to 250 while the stock market had you know an epic uh bull run uh during those those two decades. Then from 2000 to today. So 25 years gold's actually outperforming the S&P. But now at least they're they're rallying for similar reasons that you know the Fed's going to cut. The dollar benefits I'm sorry the gold benefits from that through a weaker dollar. Uh dollar is knocking on multi-year lows today. And um but you know again we'll see whether the stock market can hold its gains uh in light of the reasons why the Fed is cutting interest rates.
>> Got it. And so, uh, just looking further out, obviously, um, the Fed, uh, chair, uh, Jerome Powell is still there. Uh, Fed Governor Lisa Cook is still there and and they seem to kind of have, um, some type of alliance or whatnot. Um, they've been running together for the last few years. Um, obviously Trump wants to lower lower uh, interest rates and then, uh, Pal's term ends next year. And so, uh, just want to get, you know, are you looking that far out or is is that just noise for now? Uh, how are you processing that information?
>> Well, if you look at the the Fed funds futures, um, so yeah, Powell's term ends in May. And if you look out at the Fed funds market through April, May of next year, uh, we're pricing in 100 basis points of cuts. Uh, two this year is locked in. Uh, this year there's about a 60% chance of a third. So um you know we'll see whether you know I think the rate of inflation will determine if Jay is going to cut four times. Um you know we'll be interesting the I I wish we can be a a fly in the wall Daryl to to this Fed meeting because you know on one hand you can have Steve Meyer who is the newest member who's going to probably want to cut 50. uh Lisa Cook uh in her she's pissed too. She probably doesn't want to cut at all. >> Then you have Chris Waller who really really wants to be Fed chair. Maybe he votes for 50 also. But then some other hawks on the on the on the on the committee who vote may not want any. I I think they'll cut 25 basis points. That's locked in. But I I think it's really what Powell's words are at that press conference. uh he told us he green lit this this rate cut at the Jackson Hole meeting at the end of August. He told us he's cutting interest rates cuz he told us his attention is shifting to the labor market. But inflation is still stuck at three. So um your your attention can shift to the labor market, but there's only so much you can do if if inflation doesn't decelerate from here. Uh because I think one of the big mistakes of central banks going back 20 years was their experiment with negative zero and negative real rates. Well, according to the dot plot we're going to see this week, I have a feeling the Fed's going to reiterate that the median real rate is 1%. In other words, if inflation gets to two, the Fed fund should be at three. If inflation's at three, the Fed fund should be at four. Well, with a 25 to 50 basis point rate cut on the on the next uh few months, well, you're going to have real rates at 1%. Therefore, in order to get real rates below one, you need inflation to uh or I should say um if you if you want to keep that 1% real rate and have lower interest rates, then you need lower inflation. Unless the Fed's going to compromise and go with lower real rates, which um in response to the weaker labor market, you know, we'll have to see.
>> Yeah. Okay. Well, well, hopefully we we don't got to eat our words when when when this interview comes out and the Fed meets tomorrow, but I I think that's some great uh perspective to be thinking about when we're thinking about these macro trends that are impacting markets. So, appreciate you sharing that perspective. Uh, so, uh I want to get your outlook on the dollar. Uh, so, obviously, uh rates affect the dollar. Uh lower rates uh means cheaper money. uh cheaper money typically can lead to uh more money printing. Uh we know that the purchasing power of the dollar has continuously decreased over time. And so just want to get your uh perspective on the dollar and obviously we we could get a bid, you know, if if there's a you know market correction or or whatnot. Um, I mean typically people flood flee into the dollar and so just want to get your perspective on the dollar as all.
>> Well, if I'm right that the Fed cut is going to be selling the news, which I which I'm have a growing sense that it will be, that means everything that has rallied is going to pull back. Equities, bonds, metals, uh, and the dollar could bounce on that. So, in the short term, I think the dollar actually could bounce. But, you know, as I said earlier, we are knocking on multi-year lows with the dollar. And I do think the dollar will continue to weaken here notwithstanding uh a short-term rally. I mean I I think one of the factors is not just rate policy in terms and interest rate differentials but uh the tariff war that we started with with with the rest of the world uh is also well theoretically economists thought it would be dollar positive and it's been the exact opposite but I think it's going to end up being dollar negative because we've just encouraged the rest of the world to um trade more amongst themselves and uh and diversify their supply chains, diversify their customer base, diversify where they do business, and over time, not in the short term, but over time, uh that would be dollar negative.
>> Okay, gotcha. Okay, so let's pivot to emerging markets. Uh so I've been investigating some of the Latin American uh market stocks and they've been performing pretty well. And so uh you mentioned that you are positioning in in um in markets international markets and such and so I want to get your perspective there. I also want to hear your perspective on China. Um I mean I I think China's been um depressed for for quite a while and I'm kind of wondering um if you have any perspective there.
>> I'm very bullish on emerging Asia and that includes China, that includes India, um that includes Vietnam, that includes Singapore which is not which has already emerged. The Hang Sang has well outperformed the S&P 500 over the past year and nine months since the the beginning of 2024. when when when people started to talk about those markets being uninvestable, that was the exact time to invest and um I I think many have China derangement syndrome and um are are are missing uh what is going on there. I understand the challenges they face. I understand the authoritarian government that they have uh and and the ills that come from that. But economically speaking, uh, China is a fascinating story and that stock market just got way too beaten up. Particularly the stocks in Hong Kong, which I prefer. And, uh, we're long some of them. I'm bullish on on those markets. As I am other parts of of Asia, as I said, uh, and the one non-Asian emerging market which we're long and bullish is, uh, Brazil.
>> Okay. Yeah. So, uh, just thinking about, uh, you mentioned the the Hang Shang has outperformed the S&P. I haven't honestly haven't looked at it. I I just have a couple of stocks in China where I'm like, come on, let's let's let's get back to those two 2021 21 levels or whatnot.
>> well, the Hang Sang's up 30% this year to date. Was up about 18% last year.
>> Wow. Okay. Yeah, that's
>> all very depressed levels. I mean, it was trading at a multiple of like seven or eight times with a with a 5% dividend yield. I mean, it was people were throwing them out the window, these stocks.
>> Yeah. Yeah, that that is true. Especially one that I'm invested in, JD, uh that that got down about 20 bucks. It's sitting at about $34 now. But yeah, so uh looking at some of the other nations, um I mean obviously India, um what's what's your bullishness on India? India,
>> uh it's just a very exciting growth story there. uh they have their challenges too in terms of bureaucracy, red tape, uh corruption. Um but that that growing middle class there is is a very exciting story. The young population there is a very exciting story. The infrastructure buildout has been tremendous. I mean the highway buildout where you you've you've shortened a ride from point A to point B from 9h hour drive to 2 hours. uh uh you know, imagine you're you're you're a trucking company delivering goods and you can do that in two hours instead of nine. uh uh uh so to me that that's a a tremendous long-term growth story. The stock market's not cheap. It's trading at low 20 multiple. Um so I acknowledge that, but uh over time it's a a very exciting economy and very exciting market.
>> Oh, gotcha. Okay. So, just transition into Brazil. Um, I mean, Brazil stocks have uh some of them have caught a bit. Uh, I'm also investing in Colombia and uh I have a little bit in Argentina and so just want to get your uh perspective on Brazil and your outlook there.
>> Well, with Brazil, I'm not a fan of the of the socialist leftist government run by Lula. The next election unfortunately is not until October 2026 where hopefully uh the country politically shifts more to the center or even to the center right uh in terms of its business policies. But there are a little lot of highquality companies there. We along we're along EWZ which which the largest holdings are Valet um and Petro Brass and being a bull on commodities it's one of the reasons why we own it. um but uh other other highquality companies that are in that that index. It's also a play on the weaker dollar. Interest rates are very high in Brazil. They've they've been uh their central bank has been trained enough to deal with with high inflation and that's why they always keep a healthy spread between interest rates and the level of inflation. So, you know, you can get uh into the teens yield and um I believe that the the real has the potential further strengthening here. So on a fixed income basis too, it's very attractive and we own some Brazilian bonds via some ETFs and some funds. So I think it's a very interesting story. You mentioned Argentina. I'm a big fan of Malay and what he's bringing. They what he's brought uh politically and economically. They've definitely had a hiccup uh over the past couple weeks with the the election results in Buenos Aries. But I'm a fan of Malay and that country uh needed a complete overhaul and he's brought it and I hope it all works out for him and the country.
>> Yeah. Yeah. So I was actually looking at the um Argentina Argentinian stocks and many of them had outperformed significantly. There's still some that that are still haven't outper haven't performed as as good as others. And so uh do you see that as a as as that train has already left or do you still see the opportunity there?
>> I mean when you when you invest in emerging markets such as this you still you always have to have a close and keen eye on the politics. I want to believe that what went on with the with the with the local election was more of just a short-term speed bump. And Malay uses this as a self-reflection experience, which I think he is. and and he said that uh because I I think his reforms uh just need time to to to play out because if given time it will play out and inflation will slow further and um they will build up FX reserves and their economy will start to grow at a healthier clip again. So I just he needs time and hopefully he can get that time because if he does this is all going to work out and if he doesn't then um unfortunately it would be um you know a failed experiment but you know I'm optimistic that that he will get that time.
>> Okay. Yeah definitely. And then uh have you looked at Colombia? Uh so for me I've been uh invested in uh Banko it was Banko Colombia that they changed their name. Um and the stock has done pretty well. Pays a really good dividend banking sector and such and so I want to get your perspective. Do you have anything anything that you're looking at in terms of Colombia?
>> Yeah, I don't with any with nothing specific in Colombia. We have no position. You know, as you said, they they've had a nice recovery as well. I I I think this broad weakness in the dollar and I emphasize broad because it's weakened against a variety of currencies have have given these markets uh a nice tailwind and I and I do think that will continue but again it's when you invest in these countries you got to keep a very close eye on the politics because the politics can turn on a dime and if that's the case you don't you do you know if it turns on the dime in a good way yeah you want to be there but if it reverses uh you want to be the first one out.
>> Mhm. Yeah. Got it. So, uh, just even thinking about uh I mean being bullish on commodities, natural gas, uranium, uh oil, uh the Canadian uh markets. I mean, obviously they went through a a shift um in um in the politics here recently, at least from what I'm seeing. U I'm not sure how much different I think his name is Carney is different Yeah. than Trudeau. Uh, I think Trudeau was was a little more excessive. Um, more excessive, a little more maybe generous, but I just want to get your perspect. Do you have any perspective on the uh, Canadian stock market, especially when it comes to um, the natural resources that they have?
>> Well, Carney's definitely a better choice. Uh, he he as a former central banker of both the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, he understands uh, markets and and and and international economics. Trudeau seemingly didn't know much at all. Um on the flip side, you know, Cornney was a has been a big environmentalist that uh was not a fan of fossil fuels, but upon his election and upon the tariffs that the US placed on Canada, he's got new religion and he understands the importance of developing uh Canada's great natural resources and that they don't want to be beholden to the US market when it comes to selling oil and natural gas. And you, you know, you have British Columbia, the province there that is finally, you know, would allow the building of LG facilities where Canada instead of uh shipping all that those natural resources to the US, they can do it via the west coast of Canada and open up the entire continent of Asia to them. So we're long Canadian natural resources. Now, we were long this for the last couple years. So, it's not necessarily a play on Carney and and the easing of the regulatory uh issues with this. But I do think uh it's a well-run great operator both in oil and natural gas, particularly oil sands, which is a very long lived asset. And and I think that's an exciting story with a great dividend and a great way of leveraging higher will and natural gas prices.
>> Yeah, we got it. Well, thank you for sharing that perspective. Uh, so as we wrap up, I do want to get your perspective on risk management uh at this at this point in the markets with all of the different um things that could go wrong, right? Uh, and such. And so, um, just thinking about that, I I you know, for me, I've been able to exercise quite a bit of risk management. I I think if I would have been a little more risky, I would have made uh more money. But um you know, I do think the the safety of of being uh cautious when it when it comes to these markets and such and and my position sizes has definitely helped me get some sleep at night. And so, uh I just want to get your perspective on risk management and how are you factoring that in with this current environment?
>> Well, basically what you just said is you never own enough when things go up and you always own too much when they go down. I think in terms of risk management, I do it more of rather than price being my riskmanagement tool, it's constantly testing and retesting my fundamental thesis for being in a position and and and being reflective enough to acknowledge when you're wrong. Because we know doing this long enough that you're never right on everything. And there are things that are not going to work out. And being able to be honest with oneself and one's fundamental reasoning for being in a position, if that reasoning doesn't come to fruition, you have to be humble enough to say, "Okay, it's time to sell it and move on." That's my risk management rather than sort of call it a sell stop, for example, at a particular level. That's just my style. For others, price is is could be their own risk management tool. it doesn't matter whatever as long as someone has risk management tools I think is the most important thing.
>> And what about like uh cash? I mean obviously when you look at like
>> cash for sure. Yes. If there aren't opportunities that's a great place to sit. It's optionality. It's dry powder.
>> Yeah. Yeah. For sure. Okay. Well, uh Peter, appreciate you for coming on and everything. Uh where can people connect with you? I mean you have a Substack. you have an ex account as well as um I mean you're a CIO of a uh company and so uh where can people connect with you ask you questions uh here are some of the research that you're doing read some of the things that you're doing let's plug the audience
>> so on the wealth management side they can check out our website at uh onepointbg.com and my daily writings on Substack uh peterbookvar.substack.com substack.com. I write something called the book report. It's a daily commentary that I that I that I write on every day. And then as you said, I'm on X and uh commenting here and there on that uh if anybody wants to reach out and check out what I have to say.
>> All right. Well, you all have that information. Thank you, Peter, for coming on. And you all
>> Yes. Yes. Uh most definitely. And you all I encourage you to hit the subscribe button as we're continuously uploading content. would love to have your support as we interview guests like Peter. Peter, thank you for coming on and hope to have you back sometime soon.
>> Great.