Transcription
So yeah, good morning everyone. Hope that, you know, you've had a wonderful week up until now, and I hope to make your week even more wonderful. Right? So today, will be, you know, we usually do during these live live streams, you know, try to basically, you know, predict price, right? That's what we're trying to do as traders, right? Shorten our, you know, knowledge and introduce, you know, new concepts, right?
If you guys can see, right, we have news at, you know, at 10:10 a.m. this morning. So we've been news in around 30 minutes. We more than likely be here for that. The news at 8:30, don't do really do much in my opinion, right? And I think that's due to the fact that we had, you know, some type of volatility around the AS session in the, you know, futures market, which is something that we'll be looking at. The futures market, the Forex market, all right.
So the first thing that we'll be looking at is the Forex market. So if you guys can recall, right, we had, you know, this high right here annotated, right? And this low right here annotated as well. What was the, you know, what do we have in the playbook? If price ran above this high, we would expect, you know, more prices or, you know, price to, you know, pull back within the range. But it's, it's not only that, it must run above this high. There, there must be, you already know what that is, sequential SMT, which there was, right? So we had sequential SMT between the previous quarter of the, you know, monthly cycle. And you already know that Q4 is known for reversals, right? Q4 is known for reversals. That's why we have, you know, all these expansions, right?
Also, right, we had, remember what I said about, you know, trading on Wednesday? We said that, you know, Wednesday is better, it's going to be better than Tuesday, even though Wednesday does not have news events. So do you remember when I said that, that we would have, you know, some type of volatility here, and it will definitely be better than Tuesday? And why is that? So it's something that, you know, I would call delayed expansion or delayed protraction, right? But this has to do with the, you know, engineered liquidity. So here, and this happened, and you got to be listening to this right now because, like, it may seem as if, you know, it's dry, it may seem as if, you know, it doesn't make sense yet, but just stick with me, right?
So news event here, right? We had news event when here, Tuesday, red folder news, right? Did we get any, you know, we did not get that great, you know, deal of volatility on Tuesday. When did we get it? Wednesday, right? We got it on Wednesday. Wednesday, we had price just expand to, you know, our pool of liquidity or, you know, more importantly, the previous high, right, of the, you know, previous quarter of the monthly cycle. The highest of the, you know, monthly cycles. Quarters are important, very important. You know, I say that they're more, more important than, you know, almost everything. This is due to the fact that when we have, you know, like higher time frame market fluctuations, it's based on the monthly cycle, right? Most of it is based on the monthly cycle. Literally, you can, you know, have a model just by, you know, looking at the monthly cycle, and, you know, that's how good it is.
So we'll be, you know, examining price right now. Remember, right, we anticipated this, right? And I, what did I say? Remember, I said that we want to see price run out above this high or below this low. But what happened? It ran above this high, right? And then collapsed. The interesting, interesting enough, right, this high right here, this candle right here, looking at the US dollar index, is a, you know, precision SMT. So let's go back to the sequence. Whenever there's a bank holiday and you have a news event after the bank holiday, right, look for the expansion, right, which usually, you know, will be targeting a major high such as a, you know, monthly, you know, cycles, you know, liquidity pool or a weekly cycle's liquidity pool. The news event, right, will, you know, in my mind, just be delayed for Wednesday. So instead of, you know, going in on Tuesday because there's a bank holiday, look for the setup on Wednesday. And this is why, right, I was saying that you do not go into the market, you know, the day after a bank holiday. You wait until Wednesday, right? Wednesday, Thursday, those days will be best, right? Those days will be best.
So again, to recap, you have a bank holiday and you have a, you know, you have news event on Tuesday after the bank holiday on Monday. You skip Tuesday and expect what should happen Tuesday and Wednesday. Am I clear? I should be clear. I know, you know, might be rattling some of your minds a bit, but that's fine. That's what we're here for. And we will, you know, be seeing these things happen over and over again, right? Over and over and over again. And remember, and even now, right, the market is not, you know, high probability at all. And why is this caused? You know, it's week four. You know, well, it's, well, it's kind of high probability now. But before, when price was within this range, but, you know, between this high and this low, like when prices were around here, it was not high probability. But the draw on liquidity was the low. And for the US dollar, the draw on liquidity was this high.
There is something, right, that in my opinion has more to do with, you know, reversals in price than, you know, more than anything else. And that is the sequential SMT, which occurs between the FX triad and the interest rate market triad, right? So we'll look at that, you know, quickly. So the market right here, which is, you know, one, which causes the correlation between the monthly cycle, right? So here you can see that the British pound is in a consolidating, you know, market condition. That's what it's in right now. That doesn't mean that, you know, you can't find trades, but it just, it just means that you don't want to be, you know, holding on to moves like this, right? And, you know, even looking at the Euro, right, you don't want to be holding on to moves. So once you get, you know, in below this low, if you manage to, price comes back into this gap right here, you'll, you know, more than likely be done or, you know, be done with most of your position.
So the main thing, right, that we're trying to get instilled in your minds, right, before next month is making sure that you understand what causes price reversals, when price is likely to turn around, when price should be moving, and when price should not be moving. Here, right? And let me use this right here, right? This is the high of Q3. This is the high of Q3. And yes, we're referencing to the monthly cycle for those who don't. This is the high of Q3, right? And we'll go over to look at the monthly cycle for the index futures triad. It's been see how much it has dropped. So originally, right, for the Nasdaq, we wanted to see no sequential SMT here, which we did see, right? But what type of SMT was here? Hidden sequential SMT. That's correct, right? So we had this candle close above this one here, right? And this is a way to, you know, confirm sequential SMT. And we had this one closing below this one, right? So we want to see price push above, you know, this high, this open. But I was, you know, more inclined to price push above this high and, you know, come back within the range. And I'll tell you why, you know, I expected weakness. And, you know, we did look at that, right?
So here, and this is important. I, I didn't even want to talk about this, right? But this is important, right? Sequences, you know, you, you always hear people talking about sequences, right? So you can see that. And now we, we're, you know, focusing on the S&P 500, Nasdaq, right? Not, you know, really focusing on the Dow right now, right? We will in a second, but not right now. So we can change Dow right here to GU right here. You can see that we have intermarket sequential SMT, right? This right here is, you know, basically, you know, what gave validity to this hidden market sequential SMT right here, if you understand what I'm saying. So this here was high probability, right? This here was, you know, really as, you know, high probability as, you know, things can get. So we had the British pound taking out the previous quarter's high, the Nasdaq failing to take out the previous quarter's high, but, you know, went, went above and closed above the previous quarter's highest close. So we had hidden sequential SMT right here. Right here, we had the Dow, not the Dow, the S&P 500 be to trade above the high and failed to trade above and close above the previous quarter's highest close of the previous quarter, all while, you know, doing all of this around, you know, new week opening gaps, which aren't, you know, that important if you already have this, right?
So why did we expect weakness? We expected, you know, some type of fluctuation, you know, above price, and then, you know, why did we expect price to drop after that? Why? This, you know, was due to the fact that we already had the, you know, that B and this is actually a sequence, right? This is a sequence in, you know, which price moves. And, right, it's very important for you to write this down right now because this is like the gem of the, you know, session, right? So, so even when I, you know, get this and I post it afterwards, what will happen is I won't like be talking about this, right? So you need to watch this to get it, right? I won't be putting it on the title or, you know, because, you know, I don't want someone that's not studying, someone that's not here, someone that's not listening to just, just take this information and, you know, run along with it. So you need to be listening right now. You, you need to be writing right now. And, you know, only those of you who are paying attention will get this, right?
So we had the Dow trending, right, in just a direction by itself, just dropping, dropping, and dropping, right? Whenever we see the Dow out of sync with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq, right, we can expect, right, and this is important, we can expect, right, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq to try to get in tune or try to follow the rhythm of the Dow. Have you ever realized that? Yes, you have, but you just, you never looked at it like that before, right? So for example, right, and you can look at the cross here, right now, here, right? We had the, we had the Dow, you know, dropping tremendously, right? While we were having, you know, the Nasdaq being stuck in premium, while we were having the S&P 500 being stuck in premium. Where was the Dow? The Dow was in discount. So the S&P 500 will, you know, recalibrate themselves to match, you know, the Dow in terms of premium and discount. And this is why we, you know, saw such weakness in regards to the S&P 500. And this is why we saw the dropping price from the Nasdaq. If you guys remember what I said, right, literally, this is what I said. It's not, I did not say, right, we're going to keep going higher and higher and higher and higher and higher. I said that, right, whenever we see SMT of, you know, any sort, which we have talked about, we will expect, you know, price to reverse. We would expect price to drop. And that's what we saw happen, right? Price did what? It dropped. Why did I expect that? Because the Dow was already dropping. In these cases, when the Dow is, right, these, this actually makes it easier to reprice. So when you have, like, the Dow just, you know, doing its thing, all you have to do is look for, you know, SMT or IM SMT to push price or point price in the same direction in which the Dow is already going. And this is important. I, I, no one's going to talk about this because no one knows about this. And, right, you, you need to just, you know, see it to literally believe it, right? And this is why we don't, you know, talk about hindsight data like that, right? We try to anticipate the market conditions using the concepts, right, in the most simplistic way possible, you know, a way which, you know, allows you to focus on what I'm talking about, right? Right now, I don't have, but, you know, there will be times when we introduce, you know, some new PD arrays where, you know, we would have a lot of lips on the chart. But now it's about time. It's not about, you know, this gap right here. It's about time, right? That's the most important part. You should be focused on this right. Satellite chart, the bottom, not the sides, right?
So whenever you have the Dow in discount, Nasdaq in premium, and the S&P 500 in premium, expect the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq to join it out in discount after there is sequential SMT. Just expect that. If you have questions, you know, backtesting will answer those questions. You go in there and you see a really poor, it's there, right? It's literally been there and it's always been there. If, right, you ever see the Dow, right, literally, you just see the Dow start, you know, exploding out of nowhere, and the Nasdaq stays still, and the S&P 500 stays still. What, and what would we expect after that? Would be, you know, easy because, why? The most explosive moves happen whenever the Dow is out of sync with everything else, right? That's when you have, you have the most explosive moves. And if you understand what's happening, that's when you have, you know, the most high probability trades, right? Very, you know, you know, important.
Also, you know, there's something, you know, which, as I said, when I was beginning, I believe that I wasn't recording as yet, right? Something that, you know, just doesn't sit right with me. It's the, you know, the tension that's, you know, happening with China and Taiwan. So, you know, here's the gist of it, right? Doesn't make, tell me if this makes sense too. So Taiwan produces, I say, 90% of the, you know, technology semiconductors that the US consumes. China is over there, you know, around Taiwan, just, you know, pretty sure they already know which date they're going to, you know, invade Taiwan already. They're just like, I don't know what they're waiting for, to be honest. Not that, you know, I want anything to happen, but it just has to happen. And it's not because of anything political, it's just because of what's in the charts. If you look at the, you know, if you look at Nvidia, for example, and all, if not most of, um, but most of not all of Nvidia, you know, factories and all the scientists, all the, you know, technicians which, you know, make their product possible and as good as they are, they're located in Taiwan. Literally, all of them. Right? Nvidia is literally, you know, literally accounts for, you know, 40% of, you know, the volume of, you know, profit liquidity within, you know, stocks such as, you know, Alphabet, you know, even Tesla uses their technology, right? So yeah, Microsoft, all of them, like literally. And that's why the stock market is where it is right now because of Nvidia. Right? Nvidia is the only thing holding up the stock market right now. And the only thing that, you know, in my opinion, could cause Nvidia to fall would be what? China literally just stepping, you know, on Taiwan's lb or as they say, I don't know, right? But none of this is random, right? There is no, there are no coincidences. Okay? Nvidia happens to be going up all-time highs, and, you know, there needs to be a reason for it to reverse, okay? They need, they need to be a reason for it to reverse. And this is just the right, the beginning of, you know, us, you know, talking about things like this. So we will be, you know, in the future, we'll be like anticipating things, you know, greater, right? Um, the greater that. But for out, you know, this will, this will do. So literally, you know, keep, like me, for example, I'm always, you know, not like I'm totally interested in, you know, geopolitical conflicts, but like, there has to be a reason why it's happening, right? There has to be a reason why it's happening. And then you have to remember, remember that now, you know, in regards to the pre-cycle, which I am not sure if all of you understand, but you will understand soon. We are in a kill zone for events such as this. So yes, I won't, you know, go back in, go into that any deeper. You know, there might be people that don't want to hear like that, but, you know, we have separate streams. And after this stream, we'll be back, you know, and answer a few questions, and then that'll be it for now. Remember what I said about the Dow, the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq. It's very important, right? And you can do that also with the Great British Pound, right? Just put in place of the Dow and, you know, compare it to the Euro Dollar and the Dollar Index. So I'll be back for Q&A in a couple of seconds, just, you know, going to close this and make the video render so we can get it on [Music] all you want to me is simply your session I am the marking tent on burning the stream how many times can I ask you how many days can I go without you show [Music] [Music] [Music] the distance is a [Music] killer fire [Music] position many I go without you [Music] show [Music]