Transcription
Hello friends, I hope you are doing well, that you are in good shape, that you saw. The buddy. Very happy to reconnect with you for this breaking news video this Sunday, November 23, 2025, in front of a still green crypto market, which is pleasing. We see that since this new candle on Sunday, cryptocurrencies, altcoins, and Bitcoin are generally green. Sometimes it's not much, around plus 1%, but it's not bad. However, be careful, as I told you in the VIP video on the Telegram channel this morning, the structures that the entire crypto market is currently drawing are not very pretty, unfortunately.
So, Bitcoin has decided to attack this cluster a bit, which is pleasing, above its head, which extends to about $90,000. What is very bullish, very positive, is to see the funding rates here which are negative. So, the market is much more flooded with shorts than longs. More shorts than longs are opening. Basically, people are so pessimistic, it's normal, they are opening shorts, and at some point, there will be a short squeeze.
Now, let's be careful because we could still have another capitulation wick towards $78,450 to try, for example, to make a double bottom, to do things like that. A bottom, a base, it's not just a V, it's you test, it holds, you retest, it holds, you retest, it holds, you test many times here, it holds. Then it's good. It makes a good bottom.
So, will our little beloved Bitcoin want to first go and smash what's at $78,000, seeing the little bearish signals here which are not very bullish in terms of structure, or will it invalidate that and go look for some shorts here towards $90,000? In any case, these negative funding rates are not bad, and we will see that in today's analysis, which will be a long-term analysis as we do every Sunday, of course.
Here, we have quite a few interesting news items. The first comes from the company VanEck Research, which tells us that the general crypto market sentiment is in extreme pessimism. For them, it's unprecedented because their crypto index, their own index, is at a historically low level, below 5 points. They've never seen that. And the 21-day moving average, so the average over the last 21 days of their green index, has dropped by 10% to a level that has often marked lows.
And we have Mark Sellen, the founder of Tag Research, who says, "Our own St. Grid and Fear index is at its lowest possible level." They've never seen that. And the slower moving average has now reached the 10% zone, a level that often marks a tactical low. Well, he's not saying the low is now and that it will bounce back; he's saying it could be a low or a local low, meaning the $80,000 held, it pushes a bit, it might come back to test it later to be sure it's well supported, if you will.
Well, he also says, "Prices can still fall, as we saw in March when the indicator also reached its low before Bitcoin continued its decline in April. However, Bitcoin immediately rebounded by 10% after this initial dip, and sentiment was again close to its lowest level. A similar short-term rebound is possible." Basically, what happened? Well, in March, Bitcoin made a small low. It pushed for a month. In April, it came back to test the low, and then it was a double bottom, basically up, and it took off again. So, that's the idea, bottoms often happen like that, they take time, they come back to retest. In any case, we are not far from having something quite strong given the state of the market right now.
And we also have an analyst, Lyn Alden, who is a macroeconomist and is quite well-known in the crypto world, who has always defended Bitcoin, who says that a Bitcoin bear market collapse is not probable. Currently, it's true that many think it's over, bear market and all. So, there are altcoins that are worse off than in a bear market, clearly. So, it's true that she's talking about Bitcoin. So, when we start talking about a bull market, people who are talking need to have roughly the same portfolio, because someone like me, who is 100% Bitcoin, if I start talking about a bull run or bear market with someone who is 100% altcoins and is getting wiped out with their portfolio down 80%, you understand that the discussion about bull run or bear market will be complicated.
Well, this is really someone talking about the Bitcoin cycle, not the altcoin cycle, because anyway, altcoins have had a cycle that has nothing to do with previous ones. Well, and so here Lyn Alden tells us, "We have not reached euphoric levels in this cycle." She's a girl, but I'll still use the masculine form. Therefore, there is less reason to expect a major capitulation. Basically, she's telling us, I quite agree, we haven't had a parabolic surge. Bitcoin did go from $15,000 to $125,000. It pushed well, but it wasn't a parabolic push. It wasn't a straight-line push. There were pushes. Every time Bitcoin pushed, it spent 6 to 9 months consolidating before pushing again. Re-consolidating for 6-9 months, pushing again. It's a stair-step climb. It's not at all a parabolic climb where it really pushes, pushes, pushes, and doesn't stop.
Well, she says this cycle could last longer than expected because it's not due to the halving but to macro factors and interest in Bitcoin itself. Well, and so basically, she has put aside the 4-year cycle. That's it, she says for her, the 4-year cycles, you can forget about them. There have been two or three cycles like that. But no, it's over, it has nothing to do with it anymore.
We also have Matt Hogan, director of Bitwise, who says the same thing. He says, "We can forget about the 4-year cycles" because, well, the world has changed, investors in Bitcoin have changed. Bitcoin is not as capitalized, so many things have changed that there's no reason to do things like before. And you see it anyway, the altcoin cycles have nothing to do with the previous cycle. Well, Bitcoin, it's been a stair-step climb. There's never been a stair-step bull run before. It's always been parabolic, you see.
Well, we also have Lynette Butki, CEO of Sigma Capital, who says that yes, Bitcoin will have a bear market of 65% to 70%, but over the next two years. Well, she's not helping us much, but it's certain that if Bitcoin next year in 2026 or 2027 makes a parabolic move, meaning for 3-4 months it pushes straight up, then there will be a straight down as well, clearly. But since we haven't had a straight up this cycle, there's little chance of having a straight down.
After that, you'll tell me, "But Fifi, it's been going straight down for a month." Yes, but it's not a -70% bear market. Bitcoin is down -35% to -36%, and we've seen plenty of those -35% to -36% drops. Well, here's Lyn Alden, you see. And so she tells us that markets rarely reach the extremes imagined by investors. And it's interesting, I quite agree, is that remember this year how many big names told you yes, Bitcoin at the end of 20250, 300,000, 600,000, they were sending you impossible figures. And what did Bitcoin do by the end of the year? All down.
Well, everyone was sending Bitcoin to the moon for the last quarter, which was the best of the year, October, the best of the year, December, November, the best of the year, and Bitcoin did the opposite. And now, what do we have? Well, we have Bitcoin where the majority of people say it's over, bear market is over. You see, so people are often binary, either it's a bull run, we're all going to the moon, or it's a bear market, we're all going down. But often it's in between, and that's what she's telling us. And so, since people are currently expecting the extreme of a bear market, there's little chance of going there either.
Well, remember Arthur Hayes, who predicted Bitcoin at $250,000. See, I like it because when Bitcoin is open and pushing, you have the crypto billionaires arriving. Yes, I think it's going there. It's going there. He did sell quite a bit of his crypto, though. You see, we also have Robert Kiyosaki who sold quite a bit of his crypto. So, we should listen to these people less. Listen to them less, throw them in the trash, because they're messing with people. You see Arthur saying, "Yeah, $250,000, hop, he sells afterwards." Robert Kiyosaki, "Yeah, I told you, Bitcoin is like gold, he sells." There you go, great. Ah yes, great.
Anyway, and so the data, she stated that investors must stop considering bull cycles as guaranteed, and I think she's absolutely right. We say, "People tend to be convinced that the bull run will be there, but for example, people were convinced that the altcoin season was coming. Yes. that you buy the altcoins you want, you wait for the altcoin season, and it will push." Well. But it's crazy. It's crazy. And that's what I've been telling you for years, is that people are too much in the mindset of "Yeah, the altcoin season will come, I'm good, I just have to wait for the altcoin season." Yes, the altcoin season is coming. Yes, the altcoin season is here, it's coming soon, the altcoin season. As if it were certain that the altcoin season would arrive, and so everything is fine because anyway, it will arrive and it will push. It's madness.
So, that's why you should never base your financial strategy on the hope that something that happened in the past will happen again. That's been going on for years, it's completely stupid, you see. Well, and unfortunately, the problem is that it's sold too much like that by far too many influencers, saying "Yeah, altcoin season, don't worry, it will come, look at Bitcoin dominance, it's breaking, altcoin season will come now," and well, no, look at this cycle, altcoin season, nada, trash. I think it's actually, as I often say, we should stop talking about that word, it's over.
Well, and I'm not saying there won't be an explosion of certain altcoins, it's cyclical, maybe some special categories, but the fact that everything pushes, everything together, everything to the moon, you see. Well, and so Lyn predicts that Bitcoin will go back above $100,000 by the end of 2026. That might be a bit complicated, I think. In any case, what she says is interesting. We have the right to agree or disagree, I find it interesting.
And to finish, it's the premium on Coinbase which is also at an extremely low level, it's the Coinbase Bitcoin premium. Basically, it tells you the difference between the price on Coinbase and on other exchanges, and when it's negative, and here there's a quite low negative divergence, it means that American investors are rather in a fear mode, in a selling mode, and very often when the Coinbase premium is very negative, it leads to small local bottoms. You see, you should know that Bitcoin experienced its worst week since March 2025, its worst month since June 2022. Ah yes, November is beautiful.
Well, we have the American Bitcoin ETFs, they had been selling for several weeks, selling, selling. And now, it's good, on Friday, we finished these bad weeks of selling with inflows of $238 million. Ah, you'll tell me, "Yes, Fifi, the good news on Friday was that John Williams, the president of the New York Fed, said there would probably be a rate cut in December, on December 10th, not long from now, and that's why people are bullish." I said yes, no problem, but there was something else too. It was a record day in terms of trading volume for Bitcoin ETFs, $11.5 billion. This comes from Eric Balchunas, an analyst at Bloomberg, who tells us this and tells us that the BIT ETF recorded a record week in terms of put option volume. That is to say, investors are buying put options like crazy. What does that mean? They are basically buying hedges, they are hedging against the downside. When you buy put options, it means you're afraid the market will fall.
And what do many investors in traditional finance do? They buy a product, an asset, and then they buy put options. This allows them that if the price goes up, they are happy, okay, it's going up. And their put option, they just lose their premium, they don't care, you see. And on the other hand, if the price falls, well, on one hand, they lose their portfolio, but since they bought put options, they can recover some money. It allows you to balance the two. You see, on one hand you buy, on the other hand you hedge with put options.
Well, and so this is quite interesting. And so Bitcoin, which has fallen 36% from its all-time high, and Eric tells us that on Friday, it could mark a capitulation event. Why? Because there are record volumes, and these record volumes have often been observed at local lows. So, basically, there's an attempt, as he says, to stabilize around $80,000. That doesn't mean $80,000 is the bottom for sure. It could come back to test $80,000 or even a bit lower.
Well, in any case, Friday was a day with ETFs buying back several hundred million dollars, a record day in terms of volume, also a record day in terms of opening put options, and as Glassnode also tells us, there were also realized losses of Bitcoin totaling $4 billion on Friday. This is the highest level since March 2023, when we had the banking crisis, Silicon Valley Bank and all that. So, basically, all of this means that yes, it's normal for the market to be afraid, it's normal for people to be afraid.
Now, some people have their portfolios completely destroyed because they are 100% altcoins. However, we are at levels of fear, levels of things that are not pretty, which have very often marked lows in the past, you see. So, here, I'm telling myself, at some point, the low is not far away, you see. That's the idea. I'm telling myself that, personally, I think we have a bottom that is not far away. It's not far. I'm not saying it's here, but it's really not far from the bottom, you see.
Well, after that, everyone has the right to think what they want. We will meet again in the late afternoon for the long-term analysis video. This evening in the live stream, as every Sunday evening from 9 PM to 10 PM, we will talk about all of this. I send you kisses and see you later. Bye bye.