Transcription
What's going on, everybody? It's your boy, Cesar, and we are talking about Bitcoin today. Hit that like button, subscribe if you want to see more content like this, you guys, and let's get into it.
Okay, let's talk about the price action here. Here we are on the 9th of March at $86,000. 21 hours left in the day; we've just begun the day. It's becoming more and more obvious that we are about to break out of this trend. We already have broken out of this trend. I'm sure there are a lot of people who are thinking this must mean we are going to 74k, but oh, they are going to be so mistaken, my friends. Yes, we have broken out of this. Yes, I do assume it takes us to lower prices. No, I don't think it's going to take us down to 74k or 69k, but it's important to address that level, or those levels I should say. It's very possible we could go down there if we take a low to a high on our fibs. The $74,000–69,000 area does come into play with the 1272 to the 1618. This is often what I refer to as the primary extension zone, the primary target zone. So it's very, very possible that we could find resistance, or support there—resistance to the downside I suppose—but support there. However, I don't think that we go down there. I think that we are going to maintain some kind of relative productiveness on this FIB range and not see some deconstructivist… if we found support here at the 786, my expectation would be then that we find support somewhere in the golden ratio between about 84.3k to 83.1k, 83,118 to 84,355 to be more precise.
We're at 86,000 now; that drop's not really that significant. I assume that this could lead to the altcoin market selling off a little bit more than Bitcoin. That's about a 2% drop for Bitcoin to just barely over a 3% drop for Bitcoin, and maybe it goes a little bit lower. Maybe I don't think that we go below this low. Even if we do, let's entertain that thought too. Even if we do, we could go lower than what I'm expecting; we could go all the way down to 80k, and it's still not over yet. 80k is the final boss for the Bears. If you can break through 80k, okay, then the fat lady has sung, and we are moving down to 74k to $69,000 somewhere in that area. But until then, and I want to be clear as to what a break of 80k means, it does not mean you wick below it and then you close above 80k and then you hover here. No, no, no. It doesn't mean that you move all the way down here, even to see lower lows than this, and then you close above the 886 in the same day. No, that's not what it means. You have to close below it, and it doesn't mean close right below it. I want to see a break; I want to see something that closes probably more closer to 79k, but a daily close below 80k would do it for me. That would make me think that we are going to go lower than this low, even. But I don't even anticipate we go below this low. And even if we do, still, we're not in bad shape, right? Um, it's just a little bit lower than anticipated, and that might cause an overall bigger drop, larger drop in the altcoin space. Sometimes, right before Bitcoin is about to move up, we do get these flash crashes, so anything can happen, you guys. I would expect even if we did drop to 74k, it would be a very short-lived endeavor, my friends. It wouldn't be long at all, and we would likely still be at new all-time highs by the end of the month of March.
86,000 now, looking for 84.3k to 83.1k, 180 to be fair. Looking at the daily or the 4H hour RSI here, we have been oversold; we have been overbought; we rejected the 60, and now we're finding support on the 40, but we're not finding the same kind of love down here that we were finding up here, right? It doesn't seem as if this is going to sustain us at all, and I assume that because we've broken out of this diagonal line that nobody probably cares about honestly, that's probably why we're going to go a little bit lower, just to enhance the fear because people think that just because we break below these diagonal lines that means Bitcoin's broken its uptrend; it's broken market structure; we're going to the downside. No, this is not market structure; no, not at all; it's not significant to any degree. But the people that think that, you know, they tout that all over the internet, and people see this because anybody, I feel like anybody can see with their eyes clearly that these lines should be respected, right? But often times with the third attempt, the fourth attempt, that's when you break through it, and often times it's right when you do break through it that you find support and then you go higher. But again, I expect we go a little bit lower first and then higher.
The crypto fear and greed index chilling at a 24, coming down a little bit from yesterday at a 25, and that's fine. We've seen this happen a couple of times, and then we've been in this area for a little while. I can't assume that most of that, most market participants right now are involved. I shouldn't even say that; let me rephrase it. I would assume that most people who are interested in crypto, speculators, whether you're a bull or you're a bear, you're a speculator. I would assume the majority of speculators have probably de-risked; they've probably taken themselves out of the markets to a certain degree; they have some significant amounts of capital on the sidelines and not in the markets. And that's, you know, I can draw that conclusion because we're very fearful right now. There are a lot of people in the crypto markets who are aware that no matter how fearful you get, it's never a good time to sell your Bitcoin; it's never a good time to sell your cryptos in a bull market because you never know when that next finale or that next phenomenal move up could come. It could come at any day; there's no guarantee; there's nothing that says we have to drop to these areas. We could, by the time any of you watch this video, we could be at 100k, you know what I mean? Anything could happen, and that's why it's wise, very wise—it's not reckless, it's absolutely wise as hell—to not sell your Bitcoins here or any other cryptos here and just endure the coming lows, the coming volatility that we're about to experience because I mean that as far as volatility goes because volatility means you're not just moving in one direction; you're moving in both directions. And I think that when you do find your low, you're going to have a nice rapid recovery, something that will take us above these highs. We're looking for a move inevitably that does get us above 91,000.
Okay, after we hit the golden ratio, we need to—it's not a matter of a want; it's a matter of a necessity—that we need to get above 91k. We don't need to reject this area. If we reject that area, that's not going to look good, you guys. And if we reject it for a moment and we find support at the 382 and then move up, okay, if we're consolidating up here, fine, before the breakout, fine. Okay, I can see that, but if we hit the 236 and come back below the 382, that wouldn't encourage me to think that we are going to find this as support, that we're going to find a higher low. We likely would see a lower low, and 74k to 69k would become a very appropriate target perhaps at that point. It all depends; that's what I would think. Breaking above 90k, the reason why it's important is it gets you above this 236. Often times from a low to a high FIB, whenever you break above your 236—I said often times, not always—often times it does result in a move that takes you above that high. Okay, and we are probably excited about it here, but inevitably got below it in the coming hours; that's very discouraging, but it happens on a daily time frame. We didn't get above it, and that's more significant of a time frame anyway. So a daily close above 90, 91k, technically 9,84—is that right? No, $874—that that would be what we want to see.
When we do move higher, and I say when because it's not a matter of if, it's a matter of when we're going to move higher, you guys. I don't care if you're not with me on the 500k Bitcoin theory; I don't care if you're not with me on the aspect that this cycle goes until October or later this year. If you're not with me on that, that's cool, that's fine. But if you believe this is a bull market, no matter how far accentuated you believe it gets, we're all in agreement that no matter what happens here, you move a little bit lower and then you find support and you go higher, whether you move a lot lower, down to 69k, 66k, whatever, and then you go higher. I think we're all under the impression that Bitcoin inevitably will see higher highs than what it has here, so it's just a matter of time, patience, my friends, patience. And it's the most hard to be patient in moments like this where we're boring, where it's a little bit volatile, there's all this narrative going on, and nothing's happening all at once. Everything's happening outside of crypto that's supposed to be affecting crypto, but nothing's happening to the price. It can be frustrating, and it can make you question your convictions, but remember why you bought, remember why you're here, and do remember also that the bull market is not over. We are nowhere near the end; this is not at all what our historical bull market finishes look like. Even last cycle, which was weak as hell, we see very phenomenal blowoff kind of scenarios, blowoff top scenarios, or immediate growth. You know, this one wasn't so much a blowoff top as it was a double high, double top, but that was a lot of growth that you saw for a very short amount of time there, right, or an extended amount of time I should say. September 2020 until basically, I would say February 2021—that's months of just upside, man. If Bitcoin does months of upside, and I expect it will, that's going to cause a craze. We will likely see prices that are more than double what we're at now, and I very much believe that Bitcoin will see prices at 500k or higher by the end of the cycle.
I want to look at this LRO. I'm sure some people are wondering why there's these little things on here, but I just want to see the key area to break right now. So what this indicator is telling me right now is that we are in a downtrend, obviously, you know, just relatively speaking on the one-hour time frame, we're in a downtrend. To confirm that we're no longer in a downtrend, the price area that we need to break above is at about 89,000. Now I said 91k, tomato, tomato, whatever. I'm sure if we break above 89k we're going to hit 91k, but I think 91k is more significant. This indicator thinks 89k is significant, and fair, you know, there's some resistance here, some support there, a little bit of resistance there, a little bit of support I suppose here on a closing basis. If we look at a 4H hour time frame, that invalidation level gets raised up a little bit, and that gets put right at about 91k. So the more significant time frames agree with kind of my logic there; 91k makes sense. The LRO, in my opinion, is more helpful on these shorter-term time frames. When you go to the daily, it can be helpful, don't get me wrong, but not so much, right? You've got this reversion here; you moved up, sure, but you still saw lower lows. You did not get a reversion at the top here, but you did get an indication that you're starting a downtrend. Sure, reversion here didn't mean anything; reversion here didn't really mean anything either. So these longer-term time frames don't really help out, though the weekly time frame, it seems these reversions do call these highs, so we'll be paying attention to that. You had a reversion up here at the last cycle high. I actually want to see—I've actually never gone back in time with this—look at that; that called this cycle high pretty well as well. It even called the high right before the co-crash, or that overall move that happened. Every single dip in this parabolic move, not to a T, actually to be fair, this reversion happened afterwards; this one happened probably after it was mainly done. Like, yeah, this one was a little bit better, but still after most of the drop happened; this one too; this one was better; this one was after the fact. So sometimes it's a little bit of a lagging indicator, but the cycle highs, it does seem to call those pretty well; it does seem to call those well within weeks. It didn't get this one, but also I think it didn't have enough time. So anyway, I'm just showcasing the LRO here, logarithmic regression oscillator, I believe is why it's called the LRO, right? Made by ChartPrime; I like it; I think it's really good. Let's see if we're looking at—I feel like I sounded like Donald Trump there—I like it; I think it's pretty good. In fact, it might be the best indicator, probably the best indicator I've ever seen. Likely it will allow us to… to new all-time highs. I don't know why is this… whoa, dude, look at that. No matter how much I zoom out the histograms… okay, there we go. We were just way the hell zoomed in apparently.
Let's see; pretty low on the MACD here, but the oscillators are really high. I like seeing that. We've got a nice dominant uptrend there. Stochastics looking to be pointed down, but we could find support at the oversold zone as we have before. Yeah, yeah, that would indicate that we might close this week red, and perhaps even next week could be a red week. If we look at the RSI here, here slipping below the 50, that's never good, but at the same time we found support here last time; we could find support here again around the 40. We found support here before and resistance before; it's been a significant area this whole bull cycle anyway. So a little bit lower wouldn't be bad; even finding support here wouldn't be bad. And again, I want to address, just because I'm talking about the price going lower does not mean that it has to take a week; does not mean that it has to take a month; it doesn't mean that it has to happen at all at any given moment, you guys. We are on the precipice of this next phase up; it's going to happen over the coming weeks. Okay, it really is going to. And if we're at new all-time highs in the next couple of weeks, cool; that's not what I mean. I just mean we're going to start moving up; we'll begin this move up probably after this drop happens over the coming days, but time will tell. Again, next week could be a red week as well. Looking at the daily time frame here on the RSI, we do have bearish momentum building. This is not bullish divergence at the moment, but it is building bearish momentum, so I would think that that allows us to go lower. We are encroaching—or we're not encroaching; we still have lower lows—actually looks like we're in a downtrend on the oscillator as well, as we encroach upon the zero here; as we get to this zero level with the oscillators, that will likely imply and validate that we are ready for new all-time highs. Okay, so be aware of that. On the MACD, the stochastics are a bit neutral. Yeah, yeah, the price has been kind of neutral but bearish, so whatever. Daily RSI would look like we go lower as well. You've got lower highs throughout this whole range, lower lows throughout this whole range. I wonder what direction we're going to go. I would assume that we do get a higher low here with a lower low in the price, and that would likely promote bullish divergence. Lower low in the price on a closing basis that would allow for a price that is just below 84.4k, which is right in the target area we're looking for, you guys, right there. And when it does come time for us to move up higher, I'm expecting that if not by the end of March, certainly by the end of this move, we will be at prices that are at 134k, 167k, and beyond. Likely this next phase, this next move, I think will take the world by storm. We're going to see a price that goes all the way up to about 170k. It'll probably move up just like this. Genuinely, genuinely, I think this is what's going to happen. Sometime in the beginning of May, I believe we will be at about $170,000 to $175,000. I've been calling for this now—I don't want to say that I've been calling for May specifically—I've been calling for this since December. I've been—and what I called for in December specifically was 130 by the end of January, 120 by the end of January, somewhere in there, and then 170 to 150 by the end of February. And those targets have more or less remained the same; it's just those targets have gotten pushed back because I think I'm not the only one who's been anticipating that we'd have some bullish endeavors by now, but we've done nothing; we've just moved sideways and moved down. So these targets are still there; they're not going away. But until we move up, the time frame gets pushed back. Okay, so just so we're aware of that. So whenever I say I've been calling for this, I don't mean that I've been calling for us to top. If we top off in May, I'm not going to celebrate as if I'm some kind of psychic guru, and nobody should. 170k happens, I'll be celebrating that that price that I've been calling for is correct inevitably, but I've done anything but get the timing on this right, and I'm sure I'm not the only one. But just so we're aware of where I think we're going ultimately, right? By the end of this month, if not sometime in April, 130k is on the table. End of April, beginning of May, we're looking for prices above 167k, or at least around 150k.
I got nothing else for you guys. I hope you like the video. If you do, hit the like button; subscribe if you want to see more content like this. Bitcoin's going to go down a little bit, just a little bit, and then we're going to go up a lot, a lot to the upside. Okay, take care. Bye.