Transcription
My name is Gareth Soloway, and I was a losing trader until I mastered technical analysis. Logic and charts beat hype and narratives every time. Now, I teach investors the same techniques that made me a multi-millionaire. This is my trading game plan.
Hey everybody, welcome to my trading game plan. My name is Gareth Soloway, chief market strategist here at verifiedinvesting.com. Now, we're going to get into the nitty-gritty here, the technicals, the trading setups for the day. But first off, just to review, yesterday we saw a market rally when news broke that there was a framework, and again, we say framework because we don't know anything about it, but a framework for a deal involving Greenland and maybe the Arctic. And ultimately, again, it sounds like the bond market once again won out and was able to push yields up that then kind of made a cautionary signal to the president to kind of let up on his stress there on, uh, imposing the tariffs on those eight European nations. And we can see it right here.
If we flip to the S&P futures chart, this is yesterday's price action. The stock market opened. He was giving a speech. It kind of rallied up a little bit, then it fell back down and went sideways. And then right here is where that news broke that there would be no tariffs on those eight European nations and there was a framework for the deal. Now, the markets pulled back a little bit off that mega spike, and you can see overnight we've generally trended higher on the S&P futures. So again, we are setting up for a little bit of a higher open. I think the big thing to kind of recognize here is that we are not negating the big down day from two days ago just yet. So, in other words, the rally yesterday plus today, as of now, has not negated the bigger down move that we saw, um, on two days ago, again, on, uh, Tuesday. All right, so that's where we are at this point.
As always, I want to check back in on the S&P 500 daily chart. This is again a very important chart. Notice we closed below this major line right here. But notice yesterday we did not confirm the breakdown. So, this is an unconfirmed breakdown at this point. Unconfirmed means that probability-wise, it's not as likely we will continue down as if we had confirmed. Now, it still is a 50/50 or slightly better that the markets will go like this and eventually roll over. But again, it's not essentially a no-brainer, if you will. Now, if we do rally up, notice how the gap fill from two days ago would be right at that trend line. So, let's watch and see. Do we rally up and fill that gap, tagging essentially 6950 on the S&P, which would then be a retrace into the unconfirmed breakdown scene of the crime at around 6950. All right, that'll be a big test for the S&P on the charts.
Now, flipping over to the NASDAQ 100, the NASDAQ 100 did confirm. So, again, what we could see here is that we closed below. We confirmed with a closing candle lower than that prior day low. Yes, we rallied back yesterday and we're trading here today. But again, the question is now, it's going to take a lot of effort to take out that high, this trend line on the charts. And let me extend it out a little bit more for us right there. So, keep in mind the NASDAQ 100 has confirmed below this trend line. So, it's a confirmed breakdown. Not that it can't negate that. There's always a chance any pattern or break can be negated, but once confirmation occurs, the odds go up that that is the next directional move that we're generally going to go to about 75 plus percent. So, it's a pretty high, um, probability at that point.
All right, let's take a look at a couple other things here. One of the key culprits yesterday was the 10-year yield. The 10-year yield pulled back. And again, there was a lot of fear with this big spike and breakout that the 10-year yield was going to continue up because other countries were getting fed up with the US and kind of the bullying tactics being used and therefore going to dump treasuries. Dumping treasuries means there's more supply and basically less demand. It means that to get demand up, interest rates have to go up. That's the, the essence, the basics of it. Now, yesterday we saw a good pullback. Look at today though, the 10-year yield is inching back up just a little bit. One thing to take note, ask yourself, did we confirm above this level here? Closed above, confirmed. So, that means this 4.2% 2% becomes major technical support and the path of least resistance on the 10-year yield is this direction. All right. And again, that is not a good sign. So, when you look at the things that are shaping the market right now, even with today's rally and yesterday's rally, I remain exceedingly cautious based on what the charts are signaling.
Now, if the charts are able to, let's say the S&P recaptures that 69.5055 level, gets back above that trend line, never confirms, right? If the NASDAQ gets back above and reconfirms above, and for somehow the yields come back and go back below and confirm below 4.2%. Then honestly, okay, now the markets can, the probabilities now start to shade further upside in the markets, significant further upside. But in the meantime, the charts are my guiding north star, and that is what is telling me here to be cautious on the markets. Again, 10-year yield already inching back up today. All right.
Now, we did get some economic data out. Again, I'm not a big focuser on economic data here. We did get jobless claims at 200,000. That historically remains very low. That shows us that while there's not a lot of hiring going on, there's certainly not a lot of firing going on. All right, at least in the bigger scheme of things. And so those jobless claims numbers are major in terms of monitoring because again, what I've always told you guys for the last year or two of this game plan is that when you get above 250,000, that's when you get nervous. Anything in the low 200s or even, you know, 230, 200 even, that's really an all-clear sign for the jobs market that at least we're not seeing a massive amount of layoffs in the system. All right.
Um, now let's go on to some bigger movers today. We can see that GE initially on earnings this morning spiked up, but now is falling sharply to the downside. And again, it's not a massive move by any stretch. Yesterday, it closed around 318. It's trading at 305, but nonetheless, this is a chart where if we look at this bigger chart, I mean, look at this chart here going back on GE to 2022. It's gone vertical nonstop. This is a chart. When I look at it, I say, "Wow, they better knock the cover off the ball. They better report the best numbers they've ever reported and the best guidance because anything slightly not that good, let's say even a neutral point is going to bring the stock down when it's priced to perfection." And ultimately, I think that's what we're seeing. I mean, the initial reaction from the ALOS today was to buy the earnings numbers. We can see that right here, right? But when digestion occurs now, we're seeing profit-taking because the earnings were great, but just not great enough apparently on the charts.
All right, Proctor and Gamble was initially down on earnings. Now, we're starting to see some buyers coming in. If we flip over to the daily chart now, look at this chart. Was this chart at all-time multi-year highs like GE, or was it at the lows or near the lows? And sure enough, it was near the lows. This is one of the reasons why I like these defensive names like a Proctor and Gamble or a Kraft Heinz or names like that because they're so beaten down that even when they report earnings, if the earnings are mediocre, the stocks can still go up. You have short covering. You have buyers that are saying, "All right, you know what? That wasn't so bad. Maybe I'll buy in." And that's what we're seeing. Now, it's not a big move, right? It's not tradable. It's not like it's a big enough up move for me to say, "Oh, let's look for a shortable opportunity here." But again, on a swing trade basis, heck yeah. I mean, you start looking at trend lines like this and we start talking about can it break through and get a breakout above this, let's say 148, 150 level and actually start to move sharply higher. But again, a big difference between the GE chart on the daily chart. I mean, look at the GE chart and then flip over to the, uh, Proctor and Gamble chart, and you see a tale of two different scenarios. One, the earnings were fantastic. GE, the stock is going down. Proctor and Gamble were solid, but the stock's going up. All to all has to do with the location on the chart. Where is it trading, right? All right.
Freeport MacMoRan reported earnings here today. The stock's really just chopping around here. Obviously, this one is major in copper and gold, um, the precious metals. And again, their earnings were very, very good. It's not really doing much again because the stock is vertical here. Look at this move just from November. It was $39. It's essentially up to 62 now or 61.50. Basically flat on earnings, but let's see where this goes. I think basically people are going to say, okay, Freeport MacMoRan's earnings are whatever, but let's focus in on what gold and silver are doing. And I'll touch base with that in just a minute on those numbers. All right.
Now, CCJ, this is, this didn't have earnings, right? So, CCJ is Cameco. It's a uranium miner. Um, it's had an incredible run. The reason why I bring this to your attention today is because of a technical level, right? I always try to come to you guys with some levels to watch for the day. So, yesterday, take a look at this trend line. Your highest pivot from 2024, your highest pivot from 2025, and then look at what we hit here in 2026. What we've seen is on this chart, there's a pretty big pullback every time we get up here. And so the thought process is, and this stock is setting to gap up a little bit, but let's see, does it fall back down a little bit like this to mimic past moves on this trend line? And again, just ideas here, but ideas based in technical analysis. Therefore, again, it, you know, it's not just hopes and dreams right now. Listen, if you're like me, you think, yeah, eventually this stock goes a lot higher, but it doesn't mean it can't have a corrective move like it had over here where the stock actually declined by as much as, you know, that was about a 30% decline. And so, you figure another 30% or even 20% decline could be in the cards from this major move up. And just look at where this was at the end of 2025. December 31st, it closed at 99. It's now trading at 125, essentially a 25% gain in three weeks in the stock. And again, anytime I see those type of moves, it tells me it's a lot of momentum and excitement, which usually is emotional-based. And at some point, that that pulls back, right? The emotion won't last forever. Now, it could go higher first, but at some point, we'll get those type of pullbacks in those charts. All right.
Uh, Intel. The reason I'm bringing you Intel today, and by the way, Intel's already falling pre-market. I'm a little disappointed that it's falling here. It was up to 55 in the pre-market, now back to 53.888. But Intel was up into two major trend lines. Notice this zone with this zone and then this low with this high area to this high. And look at the zone here. And look at the extension move into that. And for me, that's a pullback waiting to happen. Now, there's another reason I brought up Intel today. It's because this company will report earnings after the bell today. Now, again, this is where it gets trickier because I do think in general short-term it's overbought, but when you have the government literally owning some of Intel now, you know, they're going to get preferential treatment. They're going to get contracts. Regardless of how good their tech is, they are going to get government contracts. One of the reasons why I don't like the government being involved in private companies or public companies in this case because essentially, you know, the idea is the best should prevail. And the question is, is Intel, does Intel have the best chips? I mean, maybe, maybe they're getting there, but ultimately again, they've been now favored, they've been blessed by the US government with the investment and therefore they will be treated differently than other companies. And again, listen, it is what it is. Um, I'm not in charge of this type of stuff. I'm just letting you know that historically that's what other countries have done and then their tech actually falls behind because the government's kind of catering towards companies that maybe don't have the best tech versus US has always been a leader in technology, right? We are the leaders here. One way you lose that is by letting the government get involved in these companies. All right.
In any case, uh, let's go on. Palantir's on my radar today. Take a look here. We'll make the chart a little bit bigger. Now, Palantir here is gapping up a little bit today, but it did crack this major trend line. So, we have to monitor this. It did not confirm. So, it, if it could easily get back above the line, the line's around, uh, 170. Let's see if it does that. But again, just keep Palantir on watch. All right, keep it on watch. Let's watch to see where that ultimately goes. It is borderline breakdown, but it might get saved today since it has not confirmed the breakdown here. But this would be a concerning pattern, right? I mean, this would be something very intriguing.
Speaking of patterns, listen, I don't like patterns like this that have fallen so much, but this is a fantastic head and shoulders break on Dell. And again, I don't like, listen, it's hard for me to short a stock that's fallen from $170 down to $115, right? But the pattern is the pattern. Shoulder, head, shoulder. You do a measured move and it gives us an eventual $67 target on the chart of Dell. So again, this is where things get very interesting, right? Because, you know, does this imply that there's more pain for these hyperscalers, these these data center makers, these these type of players? Um, this kind of does unless it can negate. Now, if it closes back above 119 or so, it can negate the the the head and shoulders bearish setup, but it is something of interest.
Speaking of which, Oracle. I mean, look at the difference here. I mean, you look at a SanDisk, you look at a Micron that's in the AI space versus, I mean, the R memory. But then you look at something like Oracle, and it just again, just made new lows yesterday. Now it's gapping up today on the bounce in the market. But what a far cry. I mean, look at this fall on this stock. I did isolate down a swing, a major buy level here would be around 141, gap fill right here, and also this upslope trend line. Okay. So again, we'll continue to monitor and see how that goes. But I just wanted to cover some of these charts.
Now, gold today, it was down pretty sharply. It's getting a little bit of a bounce, still fractionally lower based on this chart. Is gold overbought near-term? Yes. Does it mean that it can't go higher? No. And in all fairness, we don't have any major resistance on gold until about 5,000 to 5100. So again, even you could even see today, I mean, it was down and then it's already come back to almost be flat on the day. And silver is actually slightly green. But the only thing with silver here is that it is kind of hovering here and being capped, at least in the near term, with this parallel, right? Trend line connecting these lows, connecting this high, and then these highs right here. So, it just again, it's a little bit of a tighter area where it has, unless it can break through this, this gives it a tighter cap than maybe gold would ultimately have. All right.
Couple other things here. Oil pulling back slightly today. Nothing major here. The breakout is still holding on oil. I continue to like oil here. And then natural gas, folks, as we go into NAT gas. Look at this move. I mean, wow. I mean, incredible. Um, in natural gas, should the price be back this quickly to five plus dollars? The answer is probably no. But this is what happens in natural gas. You get people that are off sides. Traders, commodity traders get short when they shouldn't be short and then the the rip your face off rally squeezes them and ultimately goes up. Now, do I actually think that natural gas is a quick short trade? The answer is yes. And I did initiate today a short on NAC gas. You got double top, three bar surge. I think this pulls back. Now, listen, I'm not looking for a pullback down here, but I think you could easily pull back to about this 460 level. This area right here, you can see right over here. This would make sense to me to see a pullback there. All right.
Let's quickly just touch base again on the S&P futures, just to see before I step off. S&P not doing much, still holding relatively strong on the morning session. And again, guys, the few things to watch, any new geopolitical headlines. We'll see. I'm not anticipating anything. But also, we do have Supreme Court rulings that will be coming out sooner than later, probably over the next maybe week or so. And then also earnings, Intel today. Next week, we're going to have mega caps reporting. Things are going to get pretty crazy here on the charts overall. And I'll be right here to guide you through. Don't forget later today we have Trading the Close and Earnings Central Live with Lton where he's going to be trading Intel's earnings live. That will be important not because it's government-owned, but more so because it will set the table for what people think about the AI stocks and the AI trade. You guys have a great rest of your day. Thank you so much for tuning in, guys. You are rock stars for spending time with me each and every day, and I do appreciate it. Have a good one. Take care.